There are many in the Oilogosphere better able to answer these questions, but the old man would like to have a lash which can also serve as a mid-season reference. Everything here is courtesy Gabriel Desjardins and his brilliant work at behind the net.
5x5/60 forwards
- Eberle 3.23
- Smyth 2.46
- RNH 2.02
- Hall 1.99
- Gagner 1.79
- Jones 1.76
- Eager 1.53
- Hemsky 1.52
- Horcoff 1.28
- Petrell 1.04
- Belanger 0.83
- Paajarvi 0.67
- Lander 0.57
- Eberle is all-world this season. I've suggested this is a legit step forward--he's bordering on becoming an impact player--that's maybe jumping the gun a little but even if we default to established level ability (rookie season) the young man appears to be (at the least) a legit top 6F.
- Smyth has been out of this world compared to his own recent past.
- RNH is delivering solid if unspectacular numbers at 5x5. We'll know more as we progress down the disciplines.
- Taylor Hall is moving up this chart rapidly but did have a prolonged drought during the first half. As we get to better know these young players, Hall may be the more streaky of the phenoms.
- Sam Gagner has rescued his season over the last few weeks. I'm cheering like hell for him, these last 15 games have been vital for his Oiler career.
- Ales Hemsky saw the knives the moment his injuries at an ineffective streak met. Reading between the lines, I'd guess there was a disconnect at some level for awhile. The only remaining question relates to how deep it goes. Is this msm or does management feel the same way?
- Shawn Horcoff. Lordy.
- Eric Belanger. Any time would be good, still cheering for you.
- Anton Lander. Not enough offense.
Fascinating list. Hall's heading in the right direction and that's an understatement. Hemsky posts an interesting number here too, and a shout out to young Paajarvi and my guy Gagner. Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander look like rookies.
ZONE START/forwards
- Jones 43.4
- Horcoff 45.4
- Belanger 48.1
- Smyth 48.7
- Petrell 50.9
- Paajarvi 50.9
- Gagner 52.5
- Eager 53.1
- Lander 53.8
- Hemsky 54.6
- Hall 60.4
- Eberle 64.9
- RNH 66.8
QUAL COMP/forwards
- Ryan Smyth is a killer. An absolute killer.
- Horcoff has been climbing a mountain forever.
- Even with the injury and the off-season so far, Hemsky has proven he can play against tough opposition. Distant bell now, but there it is.
- Anton Lander. Yeah.
5x4/60 forwards
- RNH 7.29
- Jones 6.25
- Hall 6.20
- Eberle 5.32
- Belanger 3.98
- Horcoff 3.84
- Gagner 3.64
- Smyth 3.29
- Hemsky 2.62
Hemsky 5x4
•06-07 5x4 per 60m: 5.45
•07-08 5x4 per 60m: 5.93
•08-09 5x4 per 60m: 5.00
•09-10 5x4 per 60m: 4.71
•10-11 5x4 per 60m: 3.47
•11-12 5x4 per 60m: 2.62
DEFENSE
Potter shows very well here, but he was a big part of the early run and was injured when things south. A guess would have him losing ground and back in the pack by spring. Tommy Gilbert is a gem, has been for a long time now. Laddy Smid has also turned the corner, but we should also remember that Theo Peckham had some good weeks when paired with Gilbert a year ago.
Petry and Sutton look okay here, Peckham looks like he's regressed but it's probably just pairing/opponent and Teubert's a kid. Barker did what we thought he'd do and Ryan Whitney is caught in a loop of Ray Milland's Lost Weekend.
ZONE START/blue
Gilbert, Smid and Sutton are doing the heavy work here although the range isn't close to the gap seen at forward. Potter definitely gets the easy at-bats and of course that contributes to the corsi rel above. I like Petry's, Smid's and Gilbert's finish and Sutton can be thrown in there too. Jesus Barker.
QUAL COMP/blue
Smid and Gilbert do the heavy lifting and then it's a blur. Fair?
ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS AND PHENOMS
Edmonton's future is in the hands of Hall, RNH and Eberle and along the blue you'd think Smid and Gilbert would be part of the plan. I'd keep Ryan Smyth around because he's having a terrific season and can mentor the kids, and Ryan Jones is playing so well that keeping him around is a no-brainer. I like Gagner and Horcoff's contract means he's here forever. On D, Petry and Potter make sense and Dubynk is a goalie you keep because the alternatives beyond 2013 summer are a distant bell. And for crying out loud stop the nonsense and sign Hemsky.
- Devan Dubnyk
- Tom Gilbert
- Ladislav Smid
- Corey Potter
- Jeff Petry
- RNH
- Shawn Horcoff
- Taylor Hall
- Ryan Smyth
- Ryan Jones
- Jordan Eberle
- Ales Hemsky
- Sam Gagner
Mylene Demongeo!? You are old and dirty. Admirable!
ReplyDeleteWord Verification Nomfi. See above.
Potter signed 2 year ext
ReplyDeleteHow much?
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of Potter being in the long term plans of the Oilers. I hope they keep Sutton a well.
ReplyDelete750 and 800k
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Petry is pretty much holding his own, despite his next NHL game being his 70th. This kid could still end up in the top 4.
ReplyDeleteTeubert is being sheltered and yet still can't cut it both by numbers and "saw him bad". He should be in the AHL, and Tambellini should have gotten us another veteran by now.
If those are the numbers that's a good deal. Even if he regresses--and the Oilers are the kind of team that loses players that way--the Barons can use him.
ReplyDeleteI sent the numbers to u on twitter by who broke the signing LT
ReplyDeleteBeauty. Yeah, unless we hear these numbers are wrong I'm pleased with the contract. Does Renney know any more defensemen?
ReplyDeleteD:
ReplyDeleteI hope Potter can a least end up with the Steve Staios role on an Oilers team with a much better defensive corps by the time his contract is up.
And for crying out loud stop the nonsense and sign Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteTerrific stuff LT!
But didn't you just raise some question marks regarding Hemsky? He is in his prime and his production just has not been there (and that PP reduction year on year is grim). He is lugging the puck up the ice but what makes you believe his O will come back?
I think Tambo needs to explore the trade market. If Hemsky's value is high, trade him. Otherwise sign him for two years and see if he rebounds.
Great that they signed Potter. He's under rated in these parts. I think he is a 4-5 guy who can help on the PP and can play physically.
Josh rimer broke the signing with numbers, I think he works for the agency, so I doubt hes wrong ;) he's not perfect but at this point he's pointing up some points
ReplyDeleteRick, I agree.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff's contract means he's here forever.
ReplyDeleteI posted on this a while back, but there's been a lot of speculation that this summer's new CBA will have an amnesty clause that would allow us to waive him and get rid of the cap hit.
He's one of only about 5 obvious candidates in the entire league.
Curtis: That is nice of him but there's a good chance a Zamboni will be parked in his driveway tomorrow morning,
ReplyDeleteHappy to see Potter signed. If that is the number then it's solid. a 5-6 dman who can play PP and is solid in own zone is great, and he is better then any other option in the next 2 years. Great transition player. 2 more on D, and maybe another up front and we may be competitive.
ReplyDeleteWell that lines up RD for next season:
ReplyDelete1. Gilbert
2. Petry
3. Potter
because you know petry is going to play. Whitney, Smid and someone else and once again I'll say Teddy Peckman is on the way out.
Peckham on the way out? He is Ladislav Smid redux, don'cha think?
ReplyDeleteIn my parallel universe no defenseman is expected to play in the NHL before he is 24. Play against men in lower leagues.
Oilers need more size up front, more maturity on D. If we don't trade for it, then we can guess the timetable for the rebuild.
It'll be tough. The Oilers are the Oilers so counting on Whitney is a given. With Potter's signing either they move someone or start NEXT season like this:
ReplyDeleteSmid-Gilbert
Whitney-Petry
Peckham-Potter
Teubert
plus they have to decide on Barker.
Horcoff is not untradeable.
ReplyDeleteFar from it. At point in time that his salary falls beneath his cap hit, he has a semi attractive contract. For a team that needs to be at the cap floor his contract in the last 2 years of his contract is ok. He has an avg salary of 3.5m and a cap hit of 5.5m. The Q is whether you could trade him in 12/13 when he has $13m owed over 3 years with a cap hit of $16.5m
PS what twit signed him to that ridiculous contract
PPS Potter at those numbers is a fine 5/6/7 D man
There is no decision on Barker....pass!
ReplyDeleteI suspect that there is an even money bet that Whitney retires..... He is 10 months out from surgery and is no closer to playing
I think they like Barker quite a bit, we'll see how the season rolls out.
ReplyDeleteAs for Whitney, there's always Hershey. :-)
Credit where 'tis due; that Potter re-signing is a good one.
ReplyDeleteBarker at $1 mill is one thing, Barker at $2.5 is a joke. I'd rather have Sutton as our 6/7 dman, with him subbing in for Petry if he struggles and make a play for an actual top 4 dman.
ReplyDeleteDucey: Well he's off all over this season, owing to injury and lack of PP time on the 1PP.
ReplyDeleteput it this way: the Oilers can shop for a 4.5M player this summer but chances are Hemsky's a better man than the guys they'll get.
It needs to be said again, if gomez can be traded, so can horcoff.
ReplyDeleteNice numbers for Potter although ideally it would have been nice to see 3 or 4 years even if it was for slightly more money.
ReplyDeleteOilers are a "have" team these days and even in a worst case scenario they can afford to take some risk and bury a contract like that in the minors. Upside being a potentially excellent budget signing which they will need when the young stars get paid in 2013/14 and 2014/15.
Other moves I would love to see;
Sign Smyth to one year deals but overpay him in 2012/13 with the agreement he take less then market in 2013/14.
Use the 1st round pick you get for Hemsky (sorry to see him go but agree it is a foregone conclusion) along with Petry, PRV/Omark and the Oilers 2013/14 1st rounder to trade for Weber if you can get him signed to a reasonable contract.
Keep Khabi unless you get a deal you can't turn down at the deadline. Get what you can for the rest of the spare parts.
You then have a nicely balanced group for next year that with even reasonable health should be a playoff team.
Still have the cap flexibility to keep the core together moving forward with Whitney and MVP coming off the books the following year.
"I posted on this a while back, but there's been a lot of speculation that this summer's new CBA will have an amnesty clause that would allow us to waive him and get rid of the cap hit."
ReplyDeleteWe can already waive him and get rid of his cap hit. Same goes for any other player that wasn't 35 when they signed their contract.
Horcoff's NMC will have expired after this season and if Edmonton is serious about winning sending him to the Barons makes a lot of sense.
It'll be tough. The Oilers are the Oilers so counting on Whitney is a given. With Potter's signing either they move someone or start NEXT season like this:
ReplyDeleteNo LT, you do not move out bodies to "make room". There will be room in a week or two weeks. You fill in the roster with 5 top 4's and 8 top 6's. Maybe even 6 top 4's if you're counting Whitney.
Smid-Gilbert
Whitney-Suter**
Boychuck**-Potter
Sutton-Peckham
Teubert
That's how you set up a defensive depth chart because before long that becomes:
Smid-Suter**
Boychuck-Potter
Peckham-Teubert
With your defense, my December you'll be:
Smid-Petry
Peckham-Potter
Teubert-Chorney
That look familiar?
The Edmonton Oilers don't work that way.
ReplyDelete@ LT.
ReplyDeleteThis may be a sentimental journey for you LT.
With the young guns inching closer to their paydays, hanging on to an oft injured Hemsky might prove to be huge folly at $4.5 million.
For example....Chris Higgins.
37GP...coming off injury.
10G 13A 23P +7
P/60 5V5 2.07
P/60 5V4 5.04
GFON/60 3.23
GAON/60 2.20
OFF Zone Start 48.3
OFF Zone Finish 54.00
Qual Comp 5th
Cap Hit $1.9 million
A smart GM could easily replace Hemsky's production for less than $4.5 million.
The best you can hope for this summer imo is an Ian White type. 4 million or so, that's the Oilers outer marker.
ReplyDeleteWhich is fine, but get two.
Signing Hemsky:
ReplyDeletePros:
-He is a good player at ES and PP.
-Not many players want to play for losing squad in Edmonton.
-He will likely be fairly cheap, given his injuries.
Cons:
-His injuries are real and they are spectacular.
-He might have leverage to ask for too much cash. GM's spend big.
-The cap space you spend on Hemsky is likely better spent on D-men, given the imbalance the Oilers have between D and F. (That imbalance will get bigger as The young forwards improve. The really young D are years away and some of the older D prospects are middling at best: Peckham, Teubert, Plante. Not sure about Petry.)
I'd sign him and move young F's for D instead of trying UFA's. But it's a tough call at this point, IMO.
That last com
I think Edmonton would be better off trading some forwards for defense and then look to replenish the forward loss via free agency.
ReplyDeleteI posted similar to something like this at ON...
ReplyDelete"I expect the organization to go after a big fish (most likely a d-man) either at the trade deadline or in the off-season. Obvious? Yes but this season should be the season where actual transactions are made (based on the rebuild), I'm not sure how but prepare for some bigger moves which adds actual "NHL players/talent" to the team.
We may be adding another top five prospect to our organization come draft day but by next fall unlike this year, hopefully, we actually look like a team that goes deeper than having 3 NHL d-man on opening night."
It's been a few moons since we've had a strong blue line. I won't come up with any trade proposals but I'm assuming transactions will be completed. The pressure to actually compete in this league will be much more prominent in the next two seasons.
Honestly what team competing for a playoff spot ices three "NHL caliber" d-men on opening night?
Thanks for saving your best stuff for this site, LT.
ReplyDeleteThose numbers look like a ringing endorsement for Renney, by my eye.
Many people on here always come up with the term "sign free agents this summer". For the 47th time quality free agents do NOT want to play with this organization! Maybe later but not now.
ReplyDeleteBen Eager and Eric Belanger disagree. Three year deals have appeal for role players.
ReplyDeleteSeems like we can now mark down 5 Players pretty solidly onto next years D, although you never know about trades etc. But:
ReplyDeleteWhitney
Gilbert
Smid
Petry
Potter
Leaving something to do with Teubert, Sutton, Peckham, and Barker.
Given Whitney's uncertain status, and it probably makes sense to wait and see how that goes, one wonders if the Oilers might consider running with 8 D next year?
Clarkenstein said...
ReplyDeleteMany people on here always come up with the term "sign free agents this summer". For the 47th time quality free agents do NOT want to play with this organization! Maybe later but not now.
Did it ever occur to you that WHO is running the team and HOW they're running it is the most compelling reason for free agents not to sign in Edmonton?
LT... I said "quality". Those two lead you to 26th place!
ReplyDelete@DSF... Have you ever read one of my previous 25 or so posts on that subject. Management is the reason I cancelled my season tickets after over 20 seasons!
ReplyDelete@ clarkenstein.
ReplyDeleteMy apologies.
I guess we know what Job One is.
LT,
ReplyDeleteGreat post and thanks for all your work.
What do you do when Hemsky says that he wants a four year deal, three at the very minimum? I can't imagine his agent recommending anything less.
Sign and trade.
ReplyDeleteLove the Potter deal if accurate. I would have given him another year at that rate, but maybe he just wanted 2 years. Props to ST on this one - good bet.
ReplyDeleteWhitney's status really muddies the waters on D. I'm guessing he gives it another shot before he retires.
@knighttown
ReplyDeleteI think that you are bang on about defensive depth being absolutely key, but how exactly do you keep all those defensemen? Peckham and Teubert will be waiver eligible at that point (I think Teubert will be anyways), as would most other 'veteran' Dmen. Isn't it highly likely that you may be losing them as you pass them down the AHL?
I think the best case scenario is to have a good stock of young defencemen that do not pass through waivers but can still contribute at the NHL level (that may be asking a lot).
If we could complete a sign and trade for Weber anything and everything not named Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle or Hall should be pushed. Remember how Pronged calmed the D zone for half an hour a game?
ReplyDeleteI'd imagine the price is obviously very steep and being RFA he likely won't be moved until after someone raises Stanley. Maybe I'm overvaluing the guy but in my opinion he's #1 in the league.
For a proposal id even go as far as Hemsky + Gagner + 1st + even Paajarvi.
If you think I'm off base then please. Shoot me back down to earth. If he is truly aquirable it'll make the inevitable disappointment of losing out on him easier.
@ Jamie
ReplyDeleteWaiver issues are a concern but they can't paralyze you. The Leafs have 10 guys with some pedigree on their defensive depth chart. Hardly a great metric but I'm sure many non-Oiler fans don't know Corey Potter or Colton Teubert.
Phaneuf, Liles, Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Schenn, Komisarek, Fransen, Aulie, Lashoff, Finger.
Thw Wings have Garnet Exelby as their #9 defensman.
The Kings go 10 deep with a bunch of talented young guys rotating in between the minors and the #5-#7 in the bigs including Voynov, Muzzin, Martinez, Drewiske and Hickey.
The Preds usually have one of Jon Blum or Ryan Ellis in the minors. No chance the Oilers would be that patient.
Vandermeer and Colin White are #7 and #8 in San Jose and we'd talk about them at #5 and #6.
The Canucks can go nearly 11 deep with Ryan Parent in that slot on their depth chart.
If you're a Cap team, spend a few million on Jim Vandermeers or Colin Whites and Garnet Exelbys so you can survive the injuries and NOT force Colton Teubert to be sodomized at the NHL level.
@ knighttown
ReplyDeleteGillis talks incessantly about never having too many defensemen.
And, even so, he ran out of them during last season's finals.
Hamhuis
Bieksa
Edler
Salo
Ballard
Rome
Alberts
Sulzer
Tanev
Sauve
Parent
Baumgartner
That's 12 with NHL experience.
Pretty much every team with aspirations needs a dozen.
Horcoff's NMC will have expired after this season and if Edmonton is serious about winning sending him to the Barons makes a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Oilers are a better team with Shawn Horcoff than without.
They are also more than 3 million below the salary cap at the present time, with Smyth and Hemsky off the books at the end of this year and Khabibulin and Whitney the next.
Sending Horcoff to the minors (which will not happen) only makes sense if they are at the point where they NEED the cap space to make the team better, and given that a replacement 2nd line tough-minutes center is going to cost 3-4 million dollars anyways, the actual net savings of such a move make it an unlikely path, even moreso when one considers the scarcity of quality players with experience on this team.
Yes, he's overpaid. No, they're not better off without him.
The escalating cap is also making Horcoff's deal less and less of an issue.
ReplyDelete@knighttown
ReplyDeleteTotally agree. Get some older experienced guys that are 4-7's, keep the young Dmen in the minors for a couple of years and use them for spot duty when injuries invariably happen. Our scouting department appears to be doing a good job of procurement of young defensemen, it would be nice to see management fill the jobs on the big club so they weren't forced to learn the job in the bigs.
Burke may be a loudmouth but he has done an excellent job at gathering defencemen while giving away very little. Makes the piss poor job this management team has done even seem worse.
Gregor:
ReplyDeleteQuestion is
"Weeks?"
or
"Months?"
For Eberle.
Life as an Oiler fan...
"The Edmonton Oilers are a better team with Shawn Horcoff than without."
ReplyDelete5.5 million in cap space is more valuable than Horcoff.
"They are also more than 3 million below the salary cap at the present time, with Smyth and Hemsky off the books at the end of this year and Khabibulin and Whitney the next."
Right now Edmonton is a lottery team with less than 4 million in cap space. Gagner, Petry and Dubnyk will all be looking for raises as will Hemsky if we decide the keep him. That doesn't even factor in upgrading our D.
"Sending Horcoff to the minors (which will not happen) only makes sense if they are at the point where they NEED the cap space to make the team better, and given that a replacement 2nd line tough-minutes center is going to cost 3-4 million dollars anyways, the actual net savings of such a move make it an unlikely path, even moreso when one considers the scarcity of quality players with experience on this team."
Horcoff is facing tough minutes and getting murdered. You can find someone to bleed goals for a lot cheaper than you are proposing.
My hope would be to replace him with Ruutu but I think Brodziak is just as good as Horcoff and is making 1.15M this year. Or you could give Belanger Horcoff's role, move Gagner back to center and then use that 5.5M to upgrade our D or build a 4th line that can actually play.
For where Edmonton is in the standings they should have 20M in cap space.
If Edmonton is serious about winning Horcoff offers the least value. I know you guys like him but that's just a fact. If Edmonton isn't serious about winning, then sure, Horcoff isn't hurting us.
What do you mean,"If Edmonton is serious about winning"? Of course they are! Can't you tell?
ReplyDeleteTraktor:
ReplyDeleteYou're foolish if you think Horcoff is part of the problem on a team that is lacking experienced and quality payers (especially at the defensive position).
Teammates directly affect plus/minus, as anyone with a shred of intelligence can tell. #10 is in an offensive rut the last 20 games, but did just fine the first 20 (a time period during which you were unsurprisingly silent on his play, but that's another discussion altogether). It's up to him to find the range in that regard.
When it comes to the other end of the ice, however, when you are in a situation where you're playing the tough minutes on a bad hockey team, the "minuses" are going to happen - whenever his line is on the ice and it isn't the Gilbert/Smid pairing behind them, there's going to be issues beyond the forwards control, and the residual effects are not surprising. Very similar to what happened two years ago, where Pat Quinn's coaching "genius" lead to the idea of playing Jacques and O'Sullivan as his tough minute wingers.
Is the fact Theo Peckham is barely an NHL defenseman at best the fault of Horcoff, Smyth, Hemsky or Jones? Don't think so.
The problem here isn't the players the Oilers have, it's the ones they do not (primarily blueliners, although another veteran forward or two wouldn't hurt either).
LT: I get the "sign Hemsky" push, but the Oilers desperately need a real top 4 defenceman and the only way they are going to get one is through a trade (at least at this point in the cycle). If its not Hemsky the Oilers are trading, who is it?
ReplyDeleteThere are only 2 current Oiler forwards with tradeable contracts that we could hope to use to bring back a d-man, I think: Hemsky and Gagner.
Gotta pick your poison...
gcw,
ReplyDeleteHemsky isn't bringing back a top 4 Dman during the season.
You *may* be able to trade for a top 4 Dman in the off season, but getting one during the regular season is as rare as passenger pigeons.
Woodguy,
ReplyDelete"Hemsky isn't bringing back a top 4 Dman during the season"
They might as well hold talent at this point. Unless a trade comes up that has value, they can only lose ground, and there is no saving this season.
Keep the skill, see what the CBA brings, and make deals when the price is right. As I see it, they aren't ready to move forward yet or we would have seen a better roster assembled last summer. Lowe has built a solid D corp before.
I can see them moving a few role players to get draft picks, which is OK, there are usually guys around to sign.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete