The Edmonton Oilers have not enjoyed roster consistency over the last several seasons. The pace is mind boggling, and the Oilers have sent away men who are now productive in other towns.
Some of that is famous (or infamous) but some of it comes from a losing organization trying to jump start the future.
So far this summer, the Oilers have resisted the urge to purge yesterday's prospects. It's an important decision, as at some point the Oilers kids will need to stand and deliver.
Since the fanbase has suffered the growing pains, it might be nice to see these young men mature with the Oilers.
Opening Night Fall 2005
- L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
- L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
- L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
- L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
- D1: Pronger-Staios
- D2: Ulanov-Smith
- D3: Cross-Bergeron
Important things to note here are just how many two-way veterans are in the lineup up front. Dvorak might not look sexy in the top 6 but he did some nice things. This was a nice group, with goaltending the main problem (and it was addressed at the deadline).
Opening Night Fall 2006
- L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Lupul
- L2: Sykora-Torres-Hemsky
- L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
- L4: Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester
- D1: Tjarnqvist-Smith
- D2: Smid-Staios
- D3: Bergeron-Greene
Important notes here include Smid's role on the team despite being 20 years old and having no NHL experience, the hugely significant change on the 1line and the fact that Stoll-Moreau-Pisani was together two opening nights in a row.
Opening Night Fall 2007
- L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
- L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-Brodziak
- L4: Cogliano-Jacques-Gagner
- D1: Pitkanen-Staios
- D2: Souray-Greene
- D3: Tarnstrom-Gilbert
Important notes here include the promise of that 2line, how much Brodziak had impressed during TC to earn that elevated role, the fact that Jacques kept getting chances. I also come back to that 2line. It started with promise, faded, resulted in Stortini being placed on that line (with some incredible on-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres) and may or may not have contributed to Stoll and Torres leaving town.
Opening Night 2008
- L1: Horcoff-Cole-Hemsky
- L2: Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson
- L3: Pisani-Moreau-Penner
- L4: Brodziak-Pouliot-Stortini
- D1: Visnovsky-Souray
- D2: Grebeskhov-Gilbert
- D3: Strudwick-Staios
Garon started and that was news. Important notes include Cole on 1line LW and Pisani at center. The kid line started the season together and the 4line once again featured Pouliot out of position. The D pairings looked more experienced and less ragged and Strudwick knocked Smid upstairs to begin the season.
Opening Night 2009
- L1: Horcoff-Jacques-Hemsky
- L2: Cogliano-Penner-Brule
- L3: Comrie-O'Sullivan-Stone
- L4: Gagner-Moreau-Stortini
- D1: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
- D2: Souray-Staios
- D3: Visnovsky-Smid
We see Pat Quinn's touch on this lineup, with a physical player on every line and the captain on the 4line with Gagner. Comrie never did establish himself but the Oilers felt he could still impact the offense with those quick hands. The blueline--and this wasn't long ago--looked deep and had some quality men.
Opening Night 2010
- L1: Gagner-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Horcoff-Hall-Eberle
- L3: Cogliano-Paajarvi-Brule
- L4: Fraser-Jones-MacIntyre
- D1: Whitney-Foster
- D2: Smid-Gilbert
- D3: Peckham-Vandermeer
Renney is now coach and puts his best young center with two solid veteran wingers; his veteran center with two gifted kids and Cogliano breaks in a rookie too. On the blue, the two new hires line up in important spots and Peckham gets his first opening night opportunity.
Opening Night 2011 (Projected)
- Gagner-Smyth-Hemsky
- RNH-Hall-Eberle
- Horcoff-Paajarvi-Omark
- Belanger-Eager-Jones
- Whitney-Barker
- Smid-Gilbert
- Peckham-Sutton
I think the kid makes the opening night lineup and lines up with Hall/Eberle. Gagner--as he did last year--gets the best wingers and the offensive responsibility. Horcoff mentors another young duo and Belanger gives the team very nice depth at center. On the blue, Barker gets the Foster role and Smid-Gilbert may be playing tougher minutes than they did a year ago. My choice for starter is Dubnyk and the name of his backup is out in the ether.
It's still a lottery team, but that forward group has some promise and if the Oilers can luck into a defender and add another goaler they could finish outside the lottery.
Boy that Fall 2006 line-up gives me a not so good visceral reaction. Pronger gone, Peca gone, Smyth not signed in summer, foreshadowing the trade in early 07 and the ensuing sick empty feeling of the last 20 games. Uggh, I can't look anymore...
ReplyDeleteBetter times ahead.
I think Jones gets Omark's spot and Hordichuk gets Jones' spot. And I also think Petry is in for Peckham.
ReplyDeleteThink there is anyway Jason Arnott can become an Oiler, other than finding a hot tub time machine?
Based on that I'm not exactly sure RNH makes it unless they plan on moving one of Gagner, Omark or Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteWell, I think maybe 8 - 12 place in the west. I'd prefer lottery to that position frankly but this year I have trouble seeing it. If Whitney goes down again I guess maybe.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers could improve by 20 points over last season and finish 13thW. I think they'll be better--a lot better if they're healthy--but with the same kind of goaltending supplied by NK a year ago it looks like a top 6 pick is likely.
ReplyDeleteSpecial teams improvement alone counts for 5+ wins.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, injuries being the equalizing bitch that they are, I don't see how Calgary or Colorado are any better, and they're in-division.
If only we could flip Gagner, Cogliano, Omark and a shiny happy prospect for Yandle or something.
Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Nugent Hopkins-Eberle
Paajarvi - Belanger - Jones
Eager - Brule - Hordichuk
Whitney-Gilbert
Yandle - Peckham
Smid - Barker
Sutton
So much more balanced, so much tougher and way more depth.
"On-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres"?
ReplyDeleteI must have missed that at the time. What happened there?
Winning some faceoffs will take us out of the lottery. If you're chasing the puck right from the get go, you're not going to win a lot of games.
ReplyDeleteFrelbo: It was classic. Stortini arrived from the bench, Stoll and Torres saw him and automatically started toward the bench (for what they thought was a line change).
ReplyDeleteThey were sent back, then turned and were sent back again but not before (and I believe it was Raffi iirc) giving a 'wtf' glance.
MacT turned blue. I can't believe I'd be the only one to remember it.
The biggest difference this year I think is that opening roster has 1 rookie. Just one. And he could be sent down.
ReplyDeleteThere are a few players that could break out into solid roles (Gagner, Smid, Cogs,). These guys are getting into their fourth years so for a couple players we could see some solid seasons.
I remember that LT, but I thought it was over Torres and Stoll being benched? Or maybe I am mixing that up with them being HS'd one game.
ReplyDeleteLT.
ReplyDeleteAs I recall, Torres wasn't all that kind in a post game interview either.
this crew is too much of a scramble to tell if they're a lottery team or not.
ReplyDeletethe oilers were really, REALLY bad last year.
the D and G are still HUGE question marks.
and even if the D and G play above expectations, the kids are all going to have to really step up and increase their production over last year AND hemsky will have to say healthy.
remember that last year wasn't all goaltending and defense. the forwards were held to two goals or less over and over again.
if all that happens, then MAYBE they barely make the playoffs.
for each of the bits above that don't work out, drop the oilers down 4 positions or so.
Paajarvi - Belanger - Jones
ReplyDeleteEager - Brule - Hordichuk
Wow, that is bad down at the bottom of the depth chart.
I though the Oilers were getting better and deeper? If the Oilers are playing Jones, Eager and Hordichuk all in the same lineup, they are seven kinds of fucked.
I agree that there's a very good chance RNH makes the team (though it completely ruins all of my mock lineups), but I would hope that they'd put him with someone other than a couple of sophomores (albeit, tremendous sophomores).
ReplyDeleteI know they did it with Nilsson-Cogliano-Gagner in the past, but it didn't have any extended success.
LT: I like the roster projection, in part because it's exactly what I have. One of Lander or RNH will make the opening night roster and I tend to think it'll be RNH so they can give him a 9 game look (and likely stay on).
ReplyDeleteWith that said, I think your prediction that the Oilers will be a lottery team again requires more consideration (which I'm sure will be coming in your previews closer to the season). The Oilers will likely be one of the more difficult teams to accurately predict next year because of three variables:
1) Health - similar injuries will lead to a similar finish.
2) Growth of the Youth - I think last year is close to a baseline - I find it unlikely that the kids will significantly regress from those results.
3) Goaltending: if Dubnyk becomes the true starter and posts similar numbers or a better veteran comes in, this is probably worth several wins.
26th-place Ottawa was only 12 points ahead of Edmonton last year and if results are similar, anything more than a small improvement in any of these variables should get the Oilers to the edge of the lottery.
Do lottery proponents see only marginal improvements ahead? What improvements do those seeing a near-playoff finish believe will occur? I think if we actually looked at these assumptions, we all might reconsider our very early predictions.
Mark-Ryan: if we ship that entire package out, it had better be Weber or Doughty coming back, nothing less!
If Whitney goes down again I guess maybe.
ReplyDeleteI hate to be a buzzkill. (I'm already lying.)
However, it's almost a certainty that Whitney misses time. I'd say the O/U is 45 GP for him every year until he quits.
RiversQ: it's one thing to be a buzzkill (I myself enjoy partaking) but it's another thing to be inaccurate.
ReplyDeleteRyan Whitney Games Played:
2005-06: 77 (9 in Scranton)
2006-07: 81
2007-08: 76
2008-09: 48
2009-10: 81
2010-11: 35
Average: 66.3 games
He's had two seasons cut short by serious injury but the first he was able to bounce back from (and with 81 GP, that's a convincing return). The last was a bit of a freak injury that isn't necessarily chronic. If you're going to offer an O/U, you might want to start with closer to 66 games - unless you want to be taken to the cleaners!
As for the "bottom lineup" you criticized, that was based on Mark-Ryan's assumption that the Oilers conduct an insanity trade of Gagner, Cogliano AND Omark - that's not happening.
Score effects make everything murky, but the Oilers need to improve by +75 goals to have a hope at the playoffs, and even then they would need some puck luck.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone ever done that year over year?
I know the Oilers had a nice few days; but they're still a long ways away from that, especially with the hole in net.
If the Oilers can get DD SV% for an entire season though; things do get interesting.
Boozy allowed 153 GA on 1389 SA.
If he had a .916 SV%, that would be 117 GA.
So competent goaltending covers half of it.
Are the improvement of the kids, Belanger, and an upgrade of Eager on Stortini and Hordichuk on Smac worth 35 GA?
I kinda doubt it, but maybe.
Cactus said...
ReplyDeleteRiversQ: it's one thing to be a buzzkill (I myself enjoy partaking) but it's another thing to be inaccurate....
He's had two seasons cut short by serious injury but the first he was able to bounce back from (and with 81 GP, that's a convincing return). The last was a bit of a freak injury that isn't necessarily chronic."
At the time of the prognosis, it was stated that his ankle problems were directly related to the the foot surgery he had previously had since the surgery caused the tendons in his ankle to be misaligned.
That is almost the definition of "chronic".
45GP may be generous.
What would you say to someone who arbitrarily hauls random numbers out of thin air?
ReplyDeleteRyan Whitneys NHL seasons:
68 81 76 48 81 35
Averaging about 65 games per season, higher if not for the freak injury last season.
Now he's an annual 45gp candidate?
Re: Growth of the Youth
ReplyDeleteLet's not count on ALL the rookies getting better next year. Don't forget the Sophomore Slump. Out of Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark, Petry, Peckham and Dubnyk we can expect some of them to improve, some to plateau, and some to regress. Over the next five years, most of them will get much better, but year-to-year their development will not be a straight line.
RNH is 174 pounds no? ESPN says he's eating a lot of steak and potatoes i know. If it's about him MAKING the team, he will.
ReplyDeletebut, is this not a big deal?
I think the issue is there, but they're goint to give him a long look in tc. And if he can post some crooked numbers, imo he'll get the 9 games.
ReplyDeleteAnd if he's (say) 1-4-5 after those 9 games, my guess is he stays.
PDO said...
ReplyDelete"Are the improvement of the kids, Belanger, and an upgrade of Eager on Stortini and Hordichuk on Smac worth 35 GA?"
Eager, Hordichuk and Sutton will likely lead to a significant spike in the number of minutes the team plays shorthanded.
Unless the PK improves by a wide margin, that will be the key to the season.
Peckham led the Oilers last season with 198 PIM.
Eager had 110.
Hordichuk had 142 his last season in Van. (barely played in FLA)
Sutton had 87 in 39 games with the Ducks and 107 the previous season.
The players they are replacing:
Fraser: 60
Vandermeer: 74
Foster:45
Jacques: 63
That's a whole new universe of PK'ing.
danny said...
ReplyDelete"What would you say to someone who arbitrarily hauls random numbers out of thin air?
Ryan Whitneys NHL seasons:
68 81 76 48 81 35
Averaging about 65 games per season, higher if not for the freak injury last season.
Now he's an annual 45gp candidate?"
It wasn't a freak injury.
DSF: Not sure where you're getting your information, but it's contrary to official sources.
ReplyDeleteWhitney's 2008 injury was to the LEFT foot. Whitney's 2010 injury was to the RIGHT ankle, and according to his doctor, was an odd and rare one (see Matheson below).
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Oilers+Ryan+Whitney+taking+steps+rehab+after+freaky+injury/4260444/story.html
I won't argue that multiple foot/ankle injuries can't cause mounting problems, but it's still far too early to say especially after he bounced back following the first.
Cactus said...
ReplyDeleteDSF: Not sure where you're getting your information, but it's contrary to official sources.
Whitney's 2008 injury was to the LEFT foot. Whitney's 2010 injury was to the RIGHT ankle, and according to his doctor, was an odd and rare one
Yes it is very rare and the rarity is based on the surgery that preceded it.
Whitney has had BOTH feet operated on and it's likely that BOTH ankles will cause issues.
this is enough to project that 45gp is being generous?
ReplyDeleteNot even sure what to say to that. Cheers.
I'm with Danny - unless someone wants to fess up to being an orthopedic surgeon or has a plausible analysis of Whitney's injury written by one, it's far too early to claim he's a chronic and certain injury risk.
ReplyDeleteI expect Ashley to be along shortly Cactus.
ReplyDeleteI hear Winnipeg is having trouble resigning Andrew Ladd.
ReplyDeleteIf you were v4.0, do you make this deal.
If you were Winnipeg?
Gagner, Omark + EDM 2012 2nd for Ladd + WPG 2012 7th
DSF:
ReplyDeleteFair point, though we would need to know how many of those were minors.
Eager getting 10's or 5's, or even quincies, I don't think anyone will be too upset.
Also: whatever happened to Roman Tesliuk? His stats disappear after 2006-07 on hockeydb. He had decent numbers though, in that year.
ReplyDeleteBuzzkills can claim whatever they want and thus place the onus upon you to prove them wrong. It's how they work. They're like the entire banking industry.
ReplyDeleteLT,
Sorry, but I'd have to say if RNH is 1-4-5 after 9, he's not just staying up... he would be impossible to send down.
Tesliuk went back to Russia? His scouting report reads like he would be a scary person to pair with Colten Teubert.
ReplyDeleteAs per Hockeysfuture, "It is clearly evident that not a lot of opponents like to drive hard and park themselves in front of netminders Geoff McIntosh or Devan Dubnyk, both of which tend the pipes for the Blazers. Known for his physical and chippy nature, Tesliuk makes sure the front of the net is clear. That is, if the opponents get that far. Tesliuk, who claims his idol is Darius Kasparaitis, plays much of a similar mold, with tough checks that often send opponents to the ice before gaining a strong presence in the offensive zone."
If Whitney goes down again I guess maybe.
ReplyDeleteI hate to be a buzzkill. (I'm already lying.)
However, it's almost a certainty that Whitney misses time. I'd say the O/U is 45 GP for him every year until he quits.
I'll take the over.
Whitney describes his injury and surgery.
Not that he has a totally clean bill of health, but he's had both congenital foot defect fixed as well as that tendon goove deepened.
The chronic stuff seems to have a sunny outlook (except frayed tendon in other foot)
He's no ironman, but 45 is far too low.
DSF: Regarding the new crop of aggressors and the PIMs they bring versus the ones leaving...what about Storts and SMAC and their 170 PIMs in their combined 70 games?
ReplyDeleteIsn't it likely that Peckham's PIMs come down a little with the new tough guys out there more often than SMAC and Stortini were?
No one's yet noticed that we've signed another Ryan? Ryan Keller as per TSN
ReplyDelete@Ryan from the Oilers:
ReplyDeleteI think LT mentioned it in an earlier post.
Ryan: It's the post below this one.
ReplyDeleteRyan from the Oilers said...
ReplyDeleteNo one's yet noticed that we've signed another Ryan? Ryan Keller as per TSN
You'd think someone would make a thread on that, lol.
Oh you stats guys are funny sometimes.
ReplyDeleteKeith Yandle is a top-10 puck mover in the league coming off a 60 point season.
Even by your own questionable metrics: Gagner and Cogliano are not good hockey players. We have plenty of reasons to think that's not going to change.
And Omark? It's him or Hemsky. Bet on it.
Well it all depends on whether you believe Whitney's ankle/foot injuries are totally unrelated and not likely to be chronic.
ReplyDeleteI'm not an orthopedic surgeon, far from it. However, when the Oilers tell me something about a medical issue I know from previous experience that it probably should not be trusted.
I'm worried about Whitney long term, especially given his importance to the current roster. I hope like heck that he ends up fine because he seems like a good guy (one of the few likable veteran Oilers recently) and he's a good player notwithstanding some percentages that aren't likely to continue.
Orca said:
ReplyDelete"RNH is 174 pounds no? ESPN says he's eating a lot of steak and potatoes i know. If it's about him MAKING the team, he will."
Just play him on the 4rth line with Eager/Hordichuk and the 3rd pairing of Peckman and Sutton. :p
Cactus: Good point about the bottom of the lineup. That proposed lineup does not necessarily relate to the one that will be used. However, the Oilers appear to have acquired Eager and Hordichuk to play in the NHL and they certainly signed Jones to an extension to play in the NHL. I think it will be a bad sign if all three end up in the lineup on a regular basis.
ReplyDeleteMark-Ryan
ReplyDeleteMeant to mention this before, but we have no reason to believe there's any way a Dman of Teddy Peckman's experience is going to be able to play the wrong point on the second pairing.
Riversq said...
ReplyDeleteHowever, when the Oilers tell me something about a medical issue I know from previous experience that it probably should not be trusted.
Do you feel the same way when it comes from the player's own mouth?
@Mark-Ryan:
ReplyDeleteYandle is a high scoring D-man but there is a reason guys like him and Visnovsky (as much as I love his style of play) don't get nominated for the Norris.
It's that they do most of their shining on the powerplay, and are questionable at even strength.
Yandle made leaps and bounds last season but he's not as "elite" as the other guys on that top 10 D-man list.
Lots of other guys in the top 10 who are major PP options. Guys like Enstrom and Letang.
While others, like Byfuglien and Weber and Wisniewski also had major PP time but played other roles on the team as well.
So Yandle is good, but not as good as you probably think he is (math or no math).
spOILer said...
ReplyDeleteDo you feel the same way when it comes from the player's own mouth?
As relayed by Jim effing Matheson?
Yes.
Seriously though, no one wants to predict they will have problems in the future. You cannot count on players to give reasonable assessments in general.
I readily admit that I'm playing devil's advocate a little bit here, but I don't think Whitney's pre-injury track record (particularly pre-2008, which is a few surgeries ago) is going to be a very good predictor of his health going forward. I wonder whether he'll be playing 60+ games/yr going forward.
So ten grand on <45, then?
ReplyDeleteThat is almost the definition of "chronic".
ReplyDelete45GP may be generous.
Not if they fixed the reason the tendon slipped.
The tendon didn't fray or tear.
Those are nasty things that are chronic.
Digging a deeper groove in a bone seems less chronic.
I hope.
And Omark? It's him or Hemsky. Bet on it.
ReplyDeleteActually this season its Omark and Hemsky. Did you notice the roster? And the forward group is better with both players on it. And worse with either one off it.
It actually made my blood boil a bit listening to Gregor's show today (here in town) and hearing them bandy Omark's name around as trade talk. He is way more valuable than what you would receive in trade. Can't trade him. Can. Not.
And Hemsky is untouchable too (though I don't see him lasting through the deadline in March).
WheatNOil said...
ReplyDeleteRe: Growth of the Youth
Let's not count on ALL the rookies getting better next year. Don't forget the Sophomore Slump. Out of Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark, Petry, Peckham and Dubnyk we can expect some of them to improve, some to plateau, and some to regress. Over the next five years, most of them will get much better, but year-to-year their development will not be a straight line.
Excellent post. It is probably not reasonable to expect each member of the whole group to get significantly better each year. One or two might stagnate a little bit.
(Aside: I'm not sure I believe in sophomore slumps. At least I'm not sure they're necessarily reflective of a dip in actual efficacy.)
One wonders about Hall though. If he's as good as most think he is, he should basically just get better every time out. The best of the best like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc do seem to just take it and run with it and never look back. I'm not sure Hall had the kind of learning curve that those three did in his first year, but I do think he got better and he looks good.
LT : Agreed on the RNH scenario for the duration but think a couple of adjustments make this lineup little sexier.
ReplyDeleteOmark gone also (if my suspicions are valid)
Horcoff reunited with S & H
Kid line as you stated
Belanger between MPS and Gagner
and the piece de resistance: John Madden centering Jones and Eager
A mill gets Madden I'd think and the guy can still win faceoffs, kill penalties and play some decent minutes.
spOILer said...
ReplyDeleteSo ten grand on <45, then?
Yup, that's what I'm saying.
RT40: Yandle is a high scoring D-man but there is a reason guys like him and Visnovsky (as much as I love his style of play) don't get nominated for the Norris.
ReplyDeleteI feel compelled to point out here that Vis was 4th in Norris voting this year, and Yandle was 5th. (As per Puck Daddy, via Copper and Blue)
While neither guy is someone who looks like a strong conventional defensive player, both are able to drive results simply by being strong contributors to offensive possession. I'm pretty unconcerned with style as long as players contribute to a positive goal differential and consequently winning hockey games.
On Vis and Yandle: What MattM said. Those guys can flat out play. With Vis especially, everything you read about him, or hear about him on TSN or talk radio, it pigeonholes him as a powerplay specialist. That's flat out not what happens on the ice.
ReplyDeleteIts far to early to be projecting line ups with confidence, there is still more movement to come.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, here's my swing if there is no movement.
4-10-14
91-89-83
94-Belanger-23
Eager-13-28
6-77
5-58
49-Barker
40
35
I like 94 getting the tough assignments with Belanger because they could handle it and 23 could add some creative offense to the line. He and 94 would be good on the cycle.
4-10-14 to keep doing what they did last year.
91-89-83
If they send their first pairing out against 4-10-14 (most will), this line should clean up. 89 and 83 showed some chemistry and 91 can play without the puck and just has to learn to get into a shooting position with those two.
If they send the top pairing against this line, then 4-10-14 will feast.
The 4th line has some speed to it and if Jones doesn't fall down every shift and they play 5-7 minutes a night, they might be a net contributing line. (considering the make up of opposing 4th lines, its not pretty anywhere)
The D is still missing a top pairing guy to make you feel good about all the pairings, without him you don't feel good about any pairing.
Every pairing has someone over their head.
If Chorney makes the team and Petry doesn't due to waivers I'll puke.
spOILer said...
ReplyDeleteSo ten grand on <45, then?
Yup, that's what I'm saying.
I'll escrow if you guys need one.
WG, that line-up takes away the magic that was PRV and Omark. I would much rather see Belanger and Smyth with Jones (to cover his long-haired, free-wheelin', hippie ways). Or even Eager would do.
ReplyDeleteThe only RH centers in the entire organization are Sam Gagner, Tanner House and O'Marra if he resigns. Thats it.
ReplyDeleteIt's the reason why I'm making a late petition for Jason Arnott. He shoots right, would give Hemsky his best shooter in his time as an Oiler, he's a vet, and it would relieve Gagner from being the only RH center. He'd be the best cannon option on the point on the PP.
The only question is....would he want to come back?
WG:
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely love those line combos.
The thought of Omark doing his little "mini Forsberg" spin and whipping the puck across the crease to Smyths stick just sitting there makes me very excited.
Smyth's the only guy on the team that knows what to do in the paint (though early returns on hartikainen seem to indicate he has a clue).
Whitney may play 65 games, but how many are healthy games? And the fact is that he had horseshoes last year with the percentages. Good player? ... yes, of course. But if the hockey gods switch favourites between him and Gilbert ...callers to Gregor's show will be running him out of town by spring and advocating a 10 year, squillion dollar deal for Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at young defensemen they usually appear to get worse as they age, just because they're asked to do more as they mature. Plus other youngsters are coming in to take the 'easy minutes', to use a Bowman term.
Whitney is different in that as a very young player he was facing tough comp and delivering results, esp by possession. Looked like he was on track to be a great defenceman in this league. Then he starts declining.
Either he's aging like Benjamin Button on high speed rewind, or there are some health issues there.
And spoiler: Damn, brother, I love ya, but you're putting the 'aïveté' in 'naïveté'. Just ask the player? Really?
Horcoff's NTC becomes a list next year. I think it's his last year in Oiler silk.
ReplyDeleteVic: Last year, he played the tops with the worst, and still came out with +1,00 per 60.
ReplyDeleteAND he was injured. His PDO was a little high, but that would be balanced if he would get legitimate help.
Whitney has another gear over Gilbert.
Hall-Horcoff-Eberle
ReplyDeleteSmyth-RNH-Hemsky
MPS-Belanger-Gagner
Eager-Cogs/Lander-Omark
Goonichuk, Jones
BQ,
ReplyDeleteIts in everyone's best interest that Jones play as little as possible.
I liked 91-23 too, but I think the key to using Belanger properly is to have him out against the toughs as much as possible and he'll need help.
That frees up either 4's line or 83's line for softer minutes which is very important to scoring.
Also I share riversq's concerns with the bottom six.
ReplyDeleteI mean the top six will improve, but their scoring chance numbers will probably stagnate. They caught a bit of luck last year.
And Omark and Cogliano will probably look better to our eyes. I mean the dice have no memory, but that's likely. I'm loathe to give up on the latter, just because I've suffered through watching him mature, seeing him reel as the angels lost their desire for him. He's just getting useful now, for Christmas sakes.
Plus Eager, Cogliano and Jones would be new "Macbeth" line.
ReplyDeleteit is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
If the 4th line of the Oilers can run a 0 +/- (signifying nothing), then the team is much better shape than every year since 06. :)
He's just getting useful now, for Christmas sakes.
ReplyDeleteHe's getting more useful, but you can still find players like Belanger for $1.75 who are much more useful in the same role.
Don't let the sunk costs keep you from selling.
Well might as well do mine
ReplyDeleteSmyth-Gagner-Hemsky
Hall-Horcoff-Eberle
MPS-Bélanger-Omark
Eager-O'Marra-Jones
I would be ok with that if they stop the bleeding.
ReplyDeleteOut, damn'd spot! out, I say!
The more I think about it, the less happy I am with the bottom six.
Come on Lander!
itsaleaf,
ReplyDeleteAgreed that 23 seems to be able to pass through sticks and skates through the crease like a wizard.
94 would be a very good compliment to that ability.
FlamingPavelBure:
ReplyDeleteTake away the on-ice percentage numbers, which have zero repeat for Dmen (please bring your wallet to any argument to the contrary) ... Whitney and Gilbert are the same freaking guy. Both good players.
Nice line up WG, I like the rationale.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be almost unfair to split Hemsky and Smyth up though, and I've never really liked Gagner and Hemsky together. Your lines do solve a lot of problems, so pretty good chance we might see that combo.
This team has too many playmakers.
I would like a big, physical, energetic goal-scorer and and and a #2 defenceman and an NHL average goalie please.
I like fpv's lines, except sub in Lander for Omarra and it looks better. Heck, sub in Cogs for Omarra and it looks better. The only one who could do worse than Omarra in that spot is me (and I would happily sign a contract to be PB'd by the Oilers - I can riff Shakespeare from there just as well)
ReplyDeletefacesse - facesse it pal, that'll never happen
Smyth-RNH-Hemsky
ReplyDeleteI think RNH and Hemsky would need a shooter, not a guy who still uses a wooden stick.
Unless RNH turns into the shooter and 94 cleans up the garbage.
You might create some weird passing vortex if RNH and 83 are on the same line.
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteJames Neal would look great on this team.
@MattM and Vic: Trust me, you don't need to tell me about Vis. I own a Visnovsky jersey. I love the guy. But the numbers speak for themselves. Go check out his even strength production and compare it to the guys who were actually nominated this year. He's got great passing and vision and he made Laddy Smid look like Duncan Keith for a short time when they played togehter but the truth is - his majority production is on the PP.
ReplyDelete1.39 P/60 EVs and 4.87 P/60 at 5v4. With an average of 24:17 TOI/G he played 0:26 per game SH and 4:08 per game on the PP, leaving 19:42 ES TOI/G.
A whopping 0:26 per game.
And, Yandle only played 0:43 of PK per game as well.
His +18 is still worth mentioning, though.
So love Visnovsky and all, but I think they aren't pigeon-holing anyone. They play important minutes for their respective teams but the scoring disparity between PP and ES as well as their TOI/G for SH... well you know.
As for those who suggested that the PP is important for winning hockey games, thanks tips. I'll be sure to write that one down. ;-)
I worry that using the word Strotini will send up an Internet Bat Signal to that nutter Bruce, so I've intentionally misspelt it.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, there is a parallel universe where Eager and Hordichuk are punted to the curb by the Oilers this past June, and Strotini is brought in from Carolina. Screaming fans and condescending nerds find common ground, they agree that it is a significant upgrade.
Of course I wouldn't say that to the face of either Eager or Hordichuk. Partly because they may well be good guys, but mostly because both are the size of one and a half men. Doesn't make it less true, though.
@Vic: I may have saw Hordichuk good while he was in Vancouver but I really enjoyed watching him compete.
ReplyDeleteVic Ferrari: I think Whitney's offensive upside is much larger.
ReplyDeleteGilbert played tops with tops and bleed like a pig.
Whitney played tops with shit and made'em bleed like pigs.
Altough Whitney had an extremly high PDO and Gilbert subpar, I expect if you give Whitney teammates who don't suck completely, and reduce Gilbert It'l amount to the same.
Raventalon
ReplyDeletePoints schmoints. Vis and Yandle drive the play north at evens. That's their greatest value. Both are useful on the powerplay, sure. But evens is where they add most of their value.
I was blown away by Visnovsky when he was an Oiler. I remember Lowe describing him as a PP specialist when he acquired him. At Scott's old blog there is a transcript of the radio interview, iirc. My expectations were low.
Precious few defensemen drive the play like that in the NHL. We were lucky to have had him here. Same goes for Pronger.
Just ask the player? Really?
ReplyDeleteLol. Sorry, those aren't my words. I asked RQ a question that call-backed your very own link backing the theses that at 45 games , you would take the over.
I was merely trying to set the stakes for you in the later post.
...So I'll escrow then?
@FPB: I think I have to agree wholeheartedly with you. Gilbert is an old-school strong silent type, who blocks his shots, plies his trade and goes home at the end of the day. Nobody gives him credit for the things he does well, just things he doesn't do well.
ReplyDeleteBut he's no Whitney. Guy does everything - and dominates at it. PP, PK, ES. He's a real stud of a defenseman.
For the record, I also have a Gilbert jersey.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I can't afford a Whitney jersey...
Absolutely agreed on James Neal. I was hopin we would take Ritchie or Saad in the 31 hole, despite the fact they're miles away.
ReplyDeleteFlaming:
ReplyDeleteWha? Outside of when the Petry kid was up (Renney kept him a mile away from trouble, showing he still had game) I don't remember any serious line matching fro the Oilers.
Granted I don't tend to notice the D. Still, low level teammates and high level comp? That requires a specific hand of cards dealt to a specific type of player ... neither were happening with the Oilers this past year.
That seems a mile off to me. Have you gone through the shift charts? Or is this your gut feel?
Vic: No the shift cards, or rather the QC and QT stats.
ReplyDeleteBut in memory I think Whitney played some with Strudwick, and was notoriously pissed.
FPB:
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if this link will work, but Whitney's most common linemates were Hall, Gagner, Eberle, Penner, and Gilbert at 5v5.
Gilbert's most common linemates were Peckham, Smid, Penner, and MPS in that order.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?ds=8&f1=2010_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+8+29+31+33+7+9+11+13+15+17
I'm not sure there was a huge difference for these two players in terms of linemates. Whitney must have had a revolving door for his partner, but his forwards were pretty good. Meanwhile Gilbert was stuck with the rook and Smid a lot. I wonder if Desjardins' QofT passes the smell test here?
Whoops I missed Cogliano as third for Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler:
ReplyDeleteSorry, I don't follow. Am I missing a link or a comment somewhere?
Also interesting is the most common opponents - Gilbert pulled Duchene (meh) Henrik and Iginla. Pretty good company.
ReplyDeleteWhitney had three dmen at the top for him - Seabrook, Keith, and Boyle. That tells me two things - one is that he didnt get much ice this year to have opponents outside the NW and two he had some forwards in front of him that CHI and SJ thought worthy of matching with their top pairings.
I wonder about Desjardins QC/QT as applied to the Oilers especially knowing what we do about the bench coaching.
RQ
ReplyDeleteQualTeam is a bit of a mess. In fairness I think Gabe acknowledges that. I don't think that recursion is an easy exit, either. It will always be self referring, just the nature of the beast.
QualComp, on the other hand, is naturally self correcting.
Sorry Vic, that was @WG, if I'm thinking of the post you're thinking of.
ReplyDeleteRQ,
ReplyDeleteQUALCOMP & QUALTEAM haven't looked right all year.
Vic:
ReplyDeleteIf you're going to have 4th line bangers (and that's another discussion all together)...
Makes more sense to have the crazy guys, no?
Hordichuk, eh.
Eager though? Buddy tried to break a Sedin's back after that really tough defenseman in Vancouver fought Patrick Marleau.
Both are a lot faster than 46 as well... makes you a lot more effective when all you're there to do is run people through the glass.
Oddly, I'd tend to think guys like Eager are more useful in playoff series where they can face the same D-pairings every night and start to do some damage, rather than in a "protection" role on an also-ran.
Oh shit, Vic, sorry thought it was WG who said that. Anyhoo I had asked RQ a question that called back an earlier WG post linking to Matheson interview of Whitney with regards to his injury. Carry on...
ReplyDeleteVic said QualComp, on the other hand, is naturally self correcting.
ReplyDeleteVic, wouldn't you expect the Oilers to have a smaller range of QC knowing that they rolled the lines?
I just checked CGY and ANA and the spread seems similar, but I assume those coaches were trying to win.
BUF and BOS have even smaller ranges.
Now Q is a coach I respect and he does have CHI playing with a larger spread than the Oilers if you toss out MacIntyre as an aberration.
RiversQ:
ReplyDeleteProbably the wrong forum for this, but I'll chat about it anyways.
If a you made a big spreadsheet of head-to-head ice time for all players. Call that matrix 'A'.
List your value of every player in the league, by whatever means you choose. I think the original QulaComp uses on-ice+/- less off-ice+/-. But do as you will. Call that list 'RQ'. Or one dimensional matrix 'RQ'.
A x RQ = QualComp. It's nothing more or less that that, Riv.
So you can fuck up the RQ list seven ways to Sunday and probably still get a sensible looking QualComp, by and large. Because even if you personally think game winning goals are the best measure of a player's value ... these are players who score a lot of goals and players who play for good teams. So they are, on the whole, good players. So even though your fondness for GWGs would be idiotic in my opinion ... the math is self correcting. You'd end up with a broadly similar list to behindthenet.
Makes sense, no?
Man, Trotz has NSH playing with a smaller spread than the Oilers too. I guess it's heavily lineup dependent anyway. Quinn or Renney handling the 03-06 Oilers would have worked just fine especially in the last year because rolling the lines doesn't hurt much. Still I'm a little surprised that the Oilers don't appear to have significantly smaller QC extremes than the teams I've looked at so far.
ReplyDeleteYeah Vic it makes sense especially if you ignore the numbers and just consider the general rankings. They probably don't change too much. I imagine choosing the appropriate measure better reflects the spread caused by how the coach runs the bench. I'll poke around with the Corsi QC ranges vs the standard +/- QC ranges.
ReplyDeleteRiv
ReplyDeleteWe're overlapping posts here.
I was going to check the spread, glad you did. And that surprises me.
Of course there are two coaches in the game. I would guess that Hemsky saw a lot of Vis and Yandle in the games he played. That wasn't Renney's doing. For that matter I'm sure he saw a lot fo the Getzlaf and Hanzal lines as well. As an opposing coach, you just don't let Hemsky play against your depth players on purpose.
Still, like you, I was expecting the Oilers spread of results to be narrower. I dunno, I'm at a loss for an explanation.
Bruce
ReplyDeleteIf you see this, could you please try to find out Marincin's current playing weight? I have seen everythingfrom 185 -200. would love to know what he is at now if you can find out while you are at the prospects camp. You tweeted today he was still rail thin, I had been hoping he gained some weight this summer.
Thanks
Well it's absolutely true about the two coaches playing along or not impacting the results.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that if every team stacked up as equitably as possible every time, then the spread would shrink dramatically. Especially so if the league parity is high. If the parity is equal and the line matching is perfect, then QC will be almost the same for all players despite the fact that there may be a large difference between the top sixes and the rest. This is the effect that self corrects and naturally depresses QC for power vs power players - they're actually always better than the metric will tell you.
So if my line of thinking is correct, then QC really starts to spread out when the coaches start to play games dodging matchups or actively trying to exploit them. If they just play the gentleman's agreement and stack up logically then the QC shrinks. Maybe opposing coaches were willing to gamble on matchups with the Oilers more than we might think? May make sense given the depth issues and the youth in the top six. And the heavy score effects. This would increase the QC spread despite the fact that Renney was oblivious to it all.
Damn, oilersfan your timing is impeccable. I just blew milk out my nose on that post. Priceless.
ReplyDeletePDO:
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess there is that.
A year ago I ran some numbers and made Eager and Fraser to be the most flattered players in the league. I guess the lesson is; if you're a bad player, play on a great team. All ships rise with the tide.
I appreciate that math isn't a language everyone likes. English, French and German are all better choices for poetry describing the differences between Gilbert and Whitney.
Math doesn't give a fuck whether he strikes a chord with you or brings a tear to your eye. Math doesn't try to rhyme, and mocks those that do.
Two things you need to know about math:
1. Don't invite him to a party, because he's as boring as church.
2. Don't bet against him.
That's a cool stream of thought, Riv.
ReplyDeleteI remember back in 03/04 Smyth played 90%ish of the ice time against Modano. Fairly similar against the other best players in the west. (Somehow Moreau got credited with shutting them down).
Clearly you need both coaches on board to make that happen. And if that happens across the board, then, as you say ... qualcomp disappears. The effect of Quality of Competition is huge but our way of measuring it fades to nothing. A perfect storm.
two quibbles:
ReplyDelete1. whoever started using the word "goaler" should not have. It's not as bad as Fred Flintstone using gardien but it's getting there
2. why not go LW-C-RW and put the centre in the middle of your line combinations?:)
1. That was me.
ReplyDelete2. That was me, too.
then both you guys were wrong:)
ReplyDeleteJust my 2/3/4 cents.
ReplyDelete1> Gilbert is a better defenseman than Whitney. Whitney was damn lucky this past season and as Vic pointed out things will change. I think this might shed some more light on the matter:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/7/5/2245885/edmonton-oilers-scoring-chances-2009-2011#comments
Someone mentioned that Whitney had a favorable PDO. that is like saying Burj Dubai is a pretty tall building. Whitney rode some crazy ass percentages and that too with the boozer in net. That is how lucky he was. Exepecting similar things to continue is being wildly optimistic.
2> Jeff Petry must get a slot in the Oilers D corps as things stand today. In his limited games, he played very well and came out on top in scoring chance differential. Peckham with all his rough and tough play is still very much a #6,#7 guy. Petry outplayed him by a significant margin.
3> WG I like your lines. However, rarely do coaches go with a designated checking line. I think a power v power is a more likely scenario and in that case Smyth Gagner Hemsky should be the line.
But if Renney is able to use a checking line, then Belanger, Smyth and Omark make a lot of sense. But I am still not feeling the 91-89-83 line. not much shooting going on there, unless 91 takes a significant leap which is possible but cant be counted on.
LT: I don't think Peckam and Sutton should be a pairing, they would would get slaughtered by a line with half decent speed. Third pairing with Petry - Peckam or pick up another defender and keep Petry in OKC. Sutton should play the role of the 7th defender.
ReplyDelete