If the Oilers had decided that the better bet would be to trade back into the first round, what value would picks 31 and 62 (their next pick) have?
According to the latest attempt at a draft value chart, those two picks should have allowed the Oilers to trade into the 15-16 area.
The writer is Michael E. Schuckers, from St. Lawrence University. His main article (an interesting read, Mr. Schuckers appears to be a better writer than the previous folks on the subject) and the draft trade chart make for interesting reading.
I believe that scouting and drafting have become more stable (fewer ridiculous selections) since the timeline studied by Mr. Schuckers, but it certainly shows (and well) the value of the first three rounds and has interesting insight into drafting defensemen at the top of the table (something I don't believe gives value compared to F's).
Anyway, he's done some interesting work here, so I wanted to pass it along.
LT: if you're interested in this sort of thing, Moskowitz and Wertheim have a chapter on it in their fantastic book "Scorecasting". For anyone interested in stats, numbers and sports, it's a fantastic read.
ReplyDeleteIs it dry as a bone? I swear the reason that I've never read Moneyball is that everyone who references it talks about "value" but no one has said a word about "entertainment."
ReplyDeleteI'm old--it better move along at a good clip! :-) Are there pictures? :-)
No pictures sadly, but it's quite entertaining. Their premise is to look at various myths in sports (home field advantage, ref bias, value of draft picks) and see if they're actually true based on the evidence. They go light on the data tables and multiple regressions though, mainly summarizing those sorts of results.
ReplyDeleteI think they strike a pretty good balance between entertainment and information - but I'm also an academic who reads non-fiction for fun. :P
@LT - If the book Moneyball is too dry for you, maybe you'll enjoy the movie coming out soon starring Brad Pitt.
ReplyDeleteThis is something that came up in a previous thread, but as for the 50-man roster limit:
ReplyDelete"...But 18 and 19-year-old players assigned to their team in the CHL do not count against the 50-contract maximum, until they have played at least 11 NHL games in one season."
-http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=430807
It appears RNH & Marincin won't count against the cap if they are returned to Junior.
WheatNOil,
ReplyDeleteThe way I read it they don't count towards the 50 man roster UNTIL they play 11 NHL games in one season, so RNH, Piltlick, Hamilton, Marincin, Roy, and Abney (who am I missing?) won't count against the current 50.
I guess its a matter of who the NHL considers these players assigned to.
I hope that's true.
Interesting Read.
ReplyDeleteHowever, based on Toronto's trade (30th and 39th for 22nd), I don't think we could have moved that far up in this draft.
It seems that higher picks are valued more today by GMs than what this article would lead you to believe.
Also, based on the data in article it seems that the picks in the 45-75 range have a roughly similar value before a steep drop in value to the later picks.
ReplyDeleteWoodGuy,
ReplyDeleteOnce the regular season starts, it'll be clear who they're assigned to. Roy will be in Oklahoma, so his contract counts. Hamilton will likely be in Oklahoma as well. Abney is 20 years old, so his contract counts. Pitlick turns 20 in November, so even if he returns to Junior I believe his contract counts.
Marincin does not turn 20 until 2012, so if he returns to Junior I don't think he counts against the cap. RNH, of course, if he returns to Junior, does not count against the cap.
I assume Marincin returns to Junior. So really the Oilers are at 49 contracts. They'll be at 48 contracts if RNH is sent back. Close to limit, but not quite there yet.
I would prefer to have 3 picks in the top 31 than 2 in the top 15-16.
ReplyDeleteNumber 31 should be an NHL'er especially on the worst org. in the league. The question is did they pick the "right" player @ 31? The concensus would be a definite "maybe".
Moneyball? Dry?
ReplyDeleteI'm reading it right now, actually. I'm not even a fan of baseball at all, and I'm finding it a very enjoyable -- and often surprisingly hilarious -- read. I'm guessing you'd really dig it, LT!
WNO,
ReplyDeleteI'm concerned if they count today. If they are at the 50 limit today, that's significant.
Do we know if the CHLers signed to pro contracts count against the 50 today?
LT: Regarding Moneyball, while I'm an A's fan, I'm not a "read a book" fan by any stretch of the imagination...and I read it in one sitting. Loved it, especially when the players being discussed were still in the system.
ReplyDeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Moneyball was very compelling. Easy to read in large swaths.
Just glancing over the roster sheet for the development camp and there are roughly twice as many left handed shots are there are right handed shots.
ReplyDeleteWhile I'm 15+ older than these kids I remember being one of two or three kids on my hockey and baseball teams who shot/bat left handed...is this a generational phenomena or just sample size and coincidence?
I think that draft value chart needs a little more work and I haven't even looked at it yet. In no draft year does an early 3rd get a team 15 spots higher in the 1st round.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers gave up a high 2nd to move up 9 spots from 30.
Ottawa gave up 48 to move up 11 spots from 35 to the bottom of the 1st this past draft.
Toronto gave up a high 2nd to move up 8 spots and didn't even get into the teens.
Definitely OT, well, maybe not too much...but maybe we shouldn't be giving Lowe and Tambi as much grief as we usually do...at least they never did anything like this:
ReplyDeleteBest contract EVAH!
To think, 19 and 31 could've got us Dougie Hamilton.
ReplyDeleteMisfit: charts like these are attempts to calculate what draft picks are ACTUALLY worth, rather than how GMs value them in practice. Obviously, we can debate about whether GP or other stats are good measures of value, but it's an interesting excercise.
ReplyDeleteI find the first round comparison from table three interesting as it shows D-men as far more likely than forwards taken in the first round to play 200 games or more then in later rounds the number swap with forwards more likely to play 200 games or more. It is interesting in light of teams tending to take D-men later which could make round 2 very good for taking D-men but also surprising as it says drafting D-men is not a bad Value in the first round. I would love to see how many of the top 100 D-men were playing with the team that drafted them at game 200. This also would tell me as a GM that great value can be had from D-men in the first round as other teams avoid D-men in the first round. In other words the BPA is often not a forward but a D-man. One of the tricks to becoming a team of the future is not following the crowd but leading it. I would like to see what happened if a team was much more willing to both draft D-men and Be very patient with them. In light of this our(Oilers) patience with guys like Peckham and others is very warranted. I would argue that you can not pick to many D-men in the first round. But you must be very patient. The biggest limiting factor in being patient with D-men would be the 50 contract cap. It also bodes very well for taking on a salary such as Cam Barker on I think if I was the coach I would pair him with a very solid D-man to lift him up and build confidence. I would tell Barker "Don't worry about the screw-ups I am not sending you down or away. If I sit you for a night or two it will be to watch from above for perspective. You are here for the year get your confidence back and give us the pleasure of signing you to a 4 year deal next summer. If this is mostly about confidence as many including Barker have stated this could be one of the two best D happenings of the summer the other being the #19 pick.
ReplyDeleteTencer tweet:
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky is on the ice with the prospects this morning...
That is many kinds of awesome.
.but maybe we shouldn't be giving Lowe and Tambi as much grief as we usually do...at least they never did anything like this:
ReplyDeleteI bet they tried to....
:)
@Johnnyshaka Because right handed people tend to shoot left the left handed players have always been more prominent. If you look at players drafted from the USA however you will see a skewing of the stats towards right handed players. This is because when the minor league teams were just starting in the sunbelt states players who were right handed were often handed a right handed stick. The player just learned to play that way. The fact that some have advanced to the pro level makes for an interesting dilemma. If right handed shots are more in demand because there are fewer of them would it bode well for a child to play with a right handed stick. This way the kid gets more ice time and hopefully fun as well. I know there are people who will give their kid a right stick just to increase the chance that the kid makes the pro level but it should really be about having fun.
ReplyDeleteSheldon: I never got that, I'm rightie in everything and I can't for my life shoot left-handed, neither could I do it when I was younger.
ReplyDeleteI can't for my life comprehend how you would shoot with your weak hand. The other hand just holds the stick!
FPB:I am right handed and have no problem shooting left.Golf left handed,batted right handed.But oddly enough can throw and catch either hand and also deal from the top or the bottom of a deck of cards.
ReplyDelete@fpb
ReplyDeleteI'm right hand in most things in life, (hockey and lacrosse being the major exceptions) and in hockey I started as a defender. It was always much easier for me, when I had to hold my stick with one hand, for that hand to be my strong hand. I also found it easier to control the opposition's body in the corner with my 'high' hand being my strong hand. It probably was a concious, calculated decision, I was about 5 years old. It was probably what felt more comfortable though.
FPB:I am right handed and have no problem shooting left.Golf left handed,batted right handed.But oddly enough can throw and catch either hand and also deal from the top or the bottom of a deck of cards.
ReplyDeleteHockeyguy10 is Kind of a Big Deal. :-)
Yeah that's what seems odd to me, so few LH batters.
ReplyDeleteKert: Ah yes! When you play with one hand most of the time. Makes sense.
If you are feeling mean today email a Flames fan.
ReplyDeletePoint out they have now dealt Phaneuf and Regehr for nothing, got rejected by Erixon, and that their new GM wasted July 1 and 2 chasing a whale. Top it off by linking the Bruins Draft Watch which gave the Oilers 2001 draft an A+ and the Flames a flaming "C". You could also point out that HF lists them as the 30th place team in terms of prospects.
In order to be fair, I point out that I expect the Flames to finish ahead of the Oilers in their traditional 9th place position. But this doesn't give Flames fans much solace. :-)
Hockeyguy10 is Kind of a Big Deal. :-)
ReplyDeleteDo you think his study smells like many leather bound books?
@flammingpavelbure I never said it made sense but if handed the stick that way at 5 years old it would be a lot different that at even ten years old. I am not saying I would do it but there was a story about it in the last year It may have been during the Olympics as I was watching the USA feed as I am in Indiana. (It really sucks to watch the Olympics in the States by the way!as it is all USA. I always loved the stories CBC did on players from other country's.)
ReplyDeleteDo you think his study smells like many leather bound books?
ReplyDeleteIf by study,you mean TV room.And by leather bound books you mean big comfy leather recliner.Then yes it does. :-)
The right vs left hand shooting is an odd thing, in Canada and Russia (I'm told) left predominates, apparently in the US and here in the UK right is in the majority. Which makes me think the hockey culture is a big factor (Wayne, Bobby Orr, etc. Shot left, so kids emulate). In countries with less hockey cultural influence (e.g. USA, UK) biology dominates so more right shooters. If you look at golf, the incidence of right handers tracks much better with overall righthandedness.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.econtalk.org/archives/2006/10/the_economics_o_8.html
ReplyDeleteNo pictures, but Russ has a soothing father-like voice while you drift into slumber with visions of OBP sugarplums.
I think that was the one where I discovered that the economic value of left tackle differed greatly from right tackle. Since one typically protects the quarterback's blind side, he gets paid a lot more than almost any other player. Fun stuff.
This study is interesting, but only marginally, since it quits where the going gets tough: value capture. Teams are drafting for their own prospects, not *just* to say "we had Dan Cleary until he reached UFA status, three cheers for the recruitment office".
Value capture changes with every tweak to the CBA.
I found have found the analysis much more compelling if the text had included the sentence "we used N=200 as our cutoff because not even the Edmonton Oilers gave the trojan horse JFJ more than 200 games before seeing the light" (for an empirical value of N which I'm too lazy to look up).
BTW, I'm an R data analyst IRL. A lot of fans out there should post that GP scatterplot on the ceiling right above the armchair of recumbence, so that when their heads tilt back in sugarplum fantasy, the magic beans are right there sprouting from above.
He did a lousy job of indicating on that plot the magnitude of the absorbing boundary (zero GP). There's a lot of information in that thick black line. See Tufte's famous infographic on Napolean's march on Moscow.
I was looking for a link, but all I found was a similar looking infographic on the Oiler prospect pipeline during the coke machine era.
OK, I overcame my fear and looked up JFJ's career NHL games played: 160. Conclusive evidence that 200 GP provides a reasonable margin on mangy kitten reclamation projects. As a quasi-statistician, it's not often I'll take a single data point as a gilded benchmark, but JFJ was like reading book 100 of Tom Swift when I was still young enough to think the adults knew when enough was enough. As a result of plowing through about 70 worthless volumes of Tom Swift figuring he might someday do something cool again, my grade three teacher assigned me to remedial English. True story.
My grandpa still introduces me to friends as his "retarded grandson" when we're on the tee box together because I'm always standing on the wrong side of the ball.
ReplyDeleteMade it to camp again today but got there a little later and missed most of the first skate...and Hemsky.
Still haven't seen the bigger of the Finnish goalies and I didn't see Pitlick out there today.
RNH sure has a quick, hard, accurate snapper...wow. Roofed several shots from either wing in either top corner...ridiculous. Hamilton looked good...quick hands for one of the bigger forwards on the ice.
They did these one on one drills where the forwards were essentially at or nearing full speed at center ice while the D were at a stand still at their blueline and Musil looked very, very mobile getting into good position quickly while guys like Marincin and Bigos could barely get their feet moving before getting beat outside.
Lander does look a lot like Paajarvi in that he looks like chaos on skates streaking down the boards...while you watch a skater like RNH and everything is smooth and looks like he's gliding around a speed skating track...no wasted movements.
Interesting read, but the other team has to be willing to trade that pick at the value listed, which we didn't see at this year's draft.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, GMs were sitting on picks unless the return was an overpay.
BTW: If Cogliano re-signs (and isn't traded) is he already counted in that 50 roster limit?
i'm a big fan of starting off kids using old school straight blades.
ReplyDeletei also remember playing ball hockey in school with plastic blades. kids would experiment a lot with bending those things every which way.
i always figured the US/Canada divergence right versus left had to do with canadian kids playing more shinny style hockey growing up, tennis balls and whatnot, with more of a focus on stick handling than shooting. strong hand on top tends to benefit actions where the lower hand is used mostly as a fulcrum - as in stick handling.
My grandpa still introduces me to friends as his "retarded grandson" when we're on the tee box together because I'm always standing on the wrong side of the ball.
ReplyDeleteNext time he tells you this tell him no,when I look down the fairway at my target,then take my stance I am actually on the right side of the ball.
Question for the group. With the contracts that have been signed over the last week. How is Hemsky not worth at least 6M/yr next year on the open Market?
ReplyDeletehockeyguy10, that's exactly what I say and his usual retort is:
ReplyDelete"Don't get smart with me...because you might be the apple of your mother's eye but you're not appealing to me."
It's quite an experience golfing with my grandfather...he'll even say so himself. :)
Emerging NHL superstar Zenon Konopka signed a 1yr - $700,000 deal with the Sens.
ReplyDeletehe sounds like a real character lol
ReplyDeleteI shoot left. I'm right handed, but my left side is stronger re arms + legs.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's because the right hand has more control the stick from the top while the left side has more power.
I'm not in the NHL.
Tencer interviewing Hemsky at the rookie camp
ReplyDelete83 saying a lot of good things.
I may win my re-signing bet yet!
*knocks on wood*
Woodguy/Lowetide, and others:
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone think Oilers have any chance of storming out of the gate and sticking around for the start of the 2012 playoff race??
Like January 1st, they're in 8th or better in the West.
Not that they survive until spring :)
Maybe Smyth comes back to the team and they tell him he's not getting on the powerplay until February.
ReplyDeleteHunter: it all depends on the factors I described a couple threads back. The Oilers could realistically be a playoff team by the beginning of 2012 if the following things occur:
ReplyDelete-The roster is relatively healthy, with no major injuries to key players.
-Dubnyk (or a goaltender of equal or greater quality) plays a starter's share of the games.
-All the kids develop at least a bit or a few of them develop a lot. It's not impossible that Hall makes a Stamkos-like leap and scores 40G next year. That would do a lot to help things.
Of course, the reverse of these is just as probable (perhaps more so): injuries abound, Khabby plays a lot of the youth stall a bit. Then it's lottery bound again.
@ Hunter
ReplyDeleteOur D is not better than last year.Its just the same. Barker in or Foster and Sutton for Vandermeer. No difference.
So it will take some extraordinary luck for Oilers to be in a playoff hunt/8th in the west come January.
A fast start maybe possible with Oilers winning most of thier 10/15 games, but then look for regression.
@ Cactus
ReplyDeleteA stamkos like leap did not even help Stamkos's team.
Why does everyone just admire Konopka? It's crazy. Everywhere TSN, RDS etc... !
ReplyDeleteSumOil: don't have the time right now to do a full review of the difference between the 2008-09 and 2009-10 editions of the Tampa Bay Lightning, but I don't think it's unfair to suggest that an additional 28 goals out of Stamkos helped the team to improve by 14 points in the standings. A small increase sure, but a start all the same.
ReplyDeleteIf Hall were to score an additional 20 goals next year (with good health, not impossible), it's reasonable to expect that it would net the Oilers at least a couple extra victories. In concert with other improvements (especially in goal) plus better health, this team could be in the playoff mix.
Disclaimer: I'm not suggesting this WILL happen, only that it's a possible scenario that could see the Oilers take a big leap in the standings.
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/stats/byteam?cat=teamstats&conference=NHL&year=season_2010&cut_type=0&sort=441
ReplyDeleteRe: last night.
Oilers improve save percentage to league average and they'd shave off 28 goals.
4th worst team SV% in the league. Complete and utter blackhole that played a huge roll in the end result of the season.
Hexual: The feeling in the groin Oiler fans would get if Tambo brought in the 2011 equivalent of Hextall.
Moneyball was good. I read nearly the entire book in the waiting room of a drop in medicenter.
ReplyDeleteI think I would have enjoyed it even more had I heard of more of the players talked about in the book.
From what I know of you LT, you will know all the names.
Does anyone think Oilers have any chance of storming out of the gate and sticking around for the start of the 2012 playoff race??
ReplyDeleteNo. We can look at the team and if it has improved on paper. I don't think it has if you include the loss of Penner.
You can also look at the teams ahead of EDM last year (that would be all of them).
Phx is likely going to drop out of the playoffs. Dallas should be worse with the loss of Richards and Neal. Calgary and St Louis will be about the same. Minnesota will drop off with Heatley and no Burns. CLB should improve. COL has the worst GA last year and now have two real goalers.
If the Oilers are really lucky they might wind up ahead of Dallas, Minni, and maybe St Louis. I think NJ, NYI, FLA will improve in the East.
Prediction: 29th - ahead of Minnesota but with league worst GA.
But really. Who the hecks knows?
Stortini signed a 2 way contract with the Preds. I wonder if that's a case of "saw him good". I like Storts as a player but he does have his limitations. My memory isn't the best but I remember him having some pretty good games against the Preds the last couple of years.
ReplyDeleteDarrenDreger Darren Dreger
ReplyDelete@ @ryanwhitney6. Wow. Ryan Whitney with a scoop? Haven't scanned twitter to verify. Nice work, Whit!!! Now, stay out of my business! Hahaha
Whitney reported Yandle signing contract with Phoenix
Zorg scored a hat trick against NAS and now plays for them.
ReplyDeleteIts the ultimate saw-em-good (I like Zorg)
Hunter,
Don't see the Oilers challenging for a playoff spot with another top 4 D and 1G. Those holes are just too big to overcome with a slightly improved top 9.
Who the hell knows really, but I'd need +250 to put $ on it.
All,
stats.hockeyanalysis.com is back up and running.
A different look and some different info (doesn't have team mate stuff up), but if you are looking for tons of good info, especially at various scores, its an amazing site.
Should read:
ReplyDeleteDon't see the Oilers challenging for a playoff spot without another top 4 D and 1G.
Dammit LT, please take up one of the dozens of offers to build you a real site for free and make some beer money of this thing and give us an edit button!
It lets you sort by Fenwick!!
ReplyDelete*swoon*
Advertising on this blog would be a mistake.
ReplyDeleteExcept that I have 3 pairs of katwalk shoes.
Edit: Get an edit button.
Can someone point me to where i can find NHLEs for the 2011 first round.
ReplyDeleteThanks
@ WG
ReplyDeleteI am pretty sure he scored 2 goals and not a hat-trick. But i could be wrong
Thanks for the interview link WG. I thought this exchange was funny (Hemmer's response)....don't think it was a jab at management, just telling it as he sees it.
ReplyDeleteTencer: Last year you could see the promise, you could see the young skill, does it maybe look like more of a team ready to win this year with some of the guys they added?
Hemsky: I think the promise is every year we talk about some promise and we get into season and we end up with something else....
Ducey: I think you are really underestimating the difference of Belanger.
ReplyDeleteMore faceoff wins will be a factor. As gabe points out in this (admittedly dated) article an improvement of 10% can account for 25 goals.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/faceoff.html
Knowing how bad our centers are, it seems fair to say Horcoff and Belanger would be relied on heavily and could account for 30 - 35 goals on faceoff improvements alone.
The PK should improve with the additions as well as not running a ridiculously horrible PK system.
If this teams stays reasonably healthy then I'm still doubtful we are playoff bound, but definitely outside lottery territory.
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteNot playoffs. Just staying in the race until early January.
I'm going to set the under/over at 1.1.12 for OIlers still being in the playoff 1 through 8 slots.
Hunter1909's Opening the Book.
I'll be interested in the battle between the gamblers, vs the physics doctorates in this room(I'm merely a BA, I know little of high mathematics other than 1st year logic).
Same Hemsky interview with video:
ReplyDeletehttp://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=120287
According to the this chart Edmonton made out like bandits in the Parise trade. The 17th pick is only worth 395 draft points and those idiots in Jersey gave up 500 draft points to get it.
ReplyDeleteMarc: Not an absolute rule.
ReplyDeletehockeyguy: Supposedly Whitney and Yandle are very good friends so that might explain the scoop. That's a nice contract for both sides. Yandle is a hell of a player.
ReplyDeleteWhy the hell didn't whitney tell him to demand a trade and sign witht the oilers?
ReplyDeleteGame up, whitney.
Bikini girl getting chatty again...Omark, Gagne, and Cogliano are supposedly the focus of discussions with NYI and TOR.
ReplyDeleteJonK,
ReplyDeleteDidn't know that till I read some of his tweets.He replied to somebody that he was trying to get him to play here.Called him a future Norris winner.
The Leafs have about 14 defensman and 7 goalies,surely they can spare one or two of them for Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteSupposedly Whitney and Yandle are very good friends so that might explain the scoop. That's a nice contract for both sides. Yandle is a hell of a player.
ReplyDeleteFrom the looks of things, he played college with Yandle's older brother.
Gunnarsson for Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteFoundation for a doable deal.
Do not think NYI would do it but would love to have Travis Hamonic come here in a trade. A very good young D man. Would cost us lots but big, tough defensive D man that's gonna get better and better
ReplyDeleteGunnarsson is another left shooting D. Can't see that happening. If they are talking then it has to be about Komisarek.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a Khabi, Brule, and Cogs for Komisarek and Gustavsson?
Edmonton: Shifts their worst contract, 1A/2 goalie gets younger and better, moves a couple extraneous forwards, gets a warm body (if an badly overpaid and pretty useless one) to add to the mix at right D
Toronto: Shifts their worst contract, gets an 'experienced' backup for Reimer, gets a potentially useful forward in Cogs
1. How do we sign Hemsky for less than $6M? Cap went up because Canadian dollar went up. Canadian dollar will stay flat or go down this coming year. Hence, cap will stay flat and UFAs will get $1M/year less than they would have gotten this year. (Or $20M less, as happened to Hossa). Vokoun will get screwed. That's how we get Hemsky for less than $6M/year - at least if Tambo stares him down and signs him on July 2, 2012.
ReplyDelete2. Jeff Z. Klein and Karl-Eric Reif, the 1980s precursors to Desjardins and the rest, demonstrated that really bad teams only get better when they improve their defense, not just their offense.
Thus, I agree: without another top 4 (actually, top 2) D-man and #1 (or at least #1a) goalie, Oilers are a lottery team again.
hockey shot effectiveness is determined by a person's dominant leg. this follows form in soccer and skateboarding and we can see the people with complications when they "goofy foot" in a sport like volley ball or snowboarding.
ReplyDelete@woodguy
ReplyDeletethe ultimate "saw him good" is the oilers and POS!!