From the group of kids still here from the mid '00s, Andrew Cogliano is the red-headed stepchild. Overpaying on contracts is all the rage, but they bring out the guards from Shawshank when it comes to #13. He fixed them today. Filed for arbitration.
This always works out well for Oiler players. Always. Every time. Well, they usually come to a deal before the hearing (this isn't the Sather era, after all) but it looks for all the world like Cogliano is on the outside looking in. Will he be here in October?
A guess at the depth chart (sans RNH and Lander) would have it Horcoff, Gagner, Belanger, Cogliano. They could go that route all season, or try RNH for 9 games with Lander, VandeVelde or someone like House in the mix.
The young man is not in a good situation at this time.
Cogliano...Belanger essentially took his gig and Lander will make him obsolete.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your time here Cogs.
I'll remember that line with Gagner and Nilsson, and those 3 overtime goals. Seems so long ago now.
ReplyDeleteI am quite certain there were people who were suggesting that he be traded after that wonderful rookie season in 07-08, as well as during and after the fall off in 08-09.
ReplyDeleteGuess I owe them an apology - could have gotten something valuable for him then. Now... could we get 2nd and a project?
I think Cogliano will have a solid career, and maybe it will be here. The things he does well--speed, a lot of try, good attitude--are all things that teams have extra time for.
ReplyDeleteAnd one day he'll get better at things and at that point someone will have a useful player. Not a star, not a top 6F (likely), but a useful player they can plug into an opening and count on.
He's like the anti-Schremp.
When Gagner and Horcoff were out with injuries at the end of the season, Cogs had every chance to convert his one-year contract into a long-term extension, and he just couldn't get it done. Cogs is the most frustrating player to follow. If could just learn to take a damn face-off he could have a long career as useful NHL bottom-sixer. He's young yet and he'll get another chance. A change of scenery might even do him some good. Thing is, he's just not what the Oilers need right now.
ReplyDeleteEven if the Oilers trade him for a draft pick, they gain a contract spot (useful since they're at the limit) and open a spot for Lander/VV/House and that's assuming RNH goes to Junior and Brule's gone. There's just no room for Cogs, which is too bad. I wish him well.
Cogs could very well be another one of those guys who goes thru his growing pains here and gets a chance to blossom elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteRenney showed a lot of faith (although he didn't really have any choice) last season. At times Cogs seemed to reward him. Other times, he reverted to the same old Cogs with poor defensive zone awareness. Part of the frustration of playing young kids.
He's now caught in a numbers game at center, and has not shown an ability to play the wing.
Only question now is do they do a sign and trade or let him walk if they don't like the reward at arbitration.
Marchant had nice things to say about his time with the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteOn retirement, he was ninth among active players in regular season games played. That really blew my mind, as did being reminded of his $19m six year contract with CBJ. Ouch, that's a mighty big air-miles bonus.
A value-priced mini-Marchant with 55% on the dot would have been a nice piece here.
Changes coming to Blogger. Maybe time to take up one of those offers you keep getting, LT, to custom-build you your own blog site. LINK
ReplyDeleteI believe Google is merely changing the brand (from Blogger to Google Blogs). The blogs themselves won't be eliminated.
ReplyDeleteNo, but as others have pointed out, when google changes the branding, they also change some of the function, too.
ReplyDelete@ WheatNoil -
ReplyDeleteYour comments might have some validity If everyone else hadn't gone down with Horcoff and Gagner. Never really understood all the hate for Cogliano. What, exactly, was he supposed to do with his "top line" minutes with basically an AHL team surrounding him?
Lander will make him obsolete.
ReplyDeleteYou know what always works out well? Planning on the assumption that guys without a single North American professional game will make your veteran players obsolete.
Not that Cogliano's anything special now. But he's a good deal surer a bet than Lander.
Not that Cogliano's anything special now. But he's a good deal surer a bet than Lander.
ReplyDeleteExcept Cogliano doesn't seem to have a clue defensively, whereas Lander can already be trusted to know which end he's in. Maybe Lander won't replace Cogliano this year, maybe he will. But Cogliano has not shown anything that would assure me that he has an edge over Lander.
I just don't understand why he wasn't moved to the wing. He could be a great checking winger with his speed. He's so unbelievably bad on faceoffs, that anything else he brought to the centre position was (is) moot.
ReplyDeleteThere's no room for him on LW either, but I would've liked to see him get the chance there.
when I first looked at the title of this post, I thought I had read, "Coliano Flies," lol.
ReplyDeleteI hate to admit it, but my blurred vision and inability to read clearly, made me feel a little happy.
Cogliano's young and fast enough that he'll probably find a way to have a career. Right now and in the foreseeable future, he's still a pretty mediocre checking center.
Not sure he fits on the 4rth line which is the only position he's likely to vie for.
Some people here seem to want to clutch onto players like Cogs like and never let go. I think we have a pretty good idea of what he is and what he isn't. Cut bait.
Lander has a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction. More than Cogliano does right now.
ReplyDeleteSo theres an obvious chance that Lander will never have as good a career as Cogs, but I wouldn't call anyone crazy for projecting him too.
It's not like Lander is coming from Juniors. He has been an impact player, and leader in the SEL, as a 20 year old.
If we stick with Cogs through his learning years, he'll be one of those types that really helps in a playoff run when he's pushing 30 and above.
ReplyDeleteFinding him a place in the bottom 6 isn't that difficult and as injuries mount up and other young players falter, he'll be useful all over the lineup. He'd be best on an energy line that hauls ass, agitates, and hits everything that skates. I'd personally have zero problem with this line:
Eager - Brule - AC
Sure, they'd be completely disoriented in their own zone for spells, but they'd sure be entertaining.
I say match the arbitration and let him grow. It's not like he's being relied upon in a prominent role or is taking someone else's spot that sopposedly deserves it more.
i think we can all agree that cogs is a better C option this year than all the others listed. a 1 year deal and then ship him at the deadline or draft seems to make more sense, if we're trying to actually groom out kids and not send them screaming into the fire.
ReplyDeleteOne of the poster here (I think it was Knightown) said something that really stuck with me about Cogliano. For all of his vaunted speed, when was the last time he ever beat someone? My guess is players who are much slower like Eberle and Hemsky have the ability to change angles and shift gears to make defencemen have to adjust. Cogs doesn't seem to attack with the puck that I can remember.
ReplyDelete"Not that Cogliano's anything special now. But he's a good deal surer a bet than Lander."
ReplyDeleteGet back to me in 6 months and tell me if your still thinking that.
Signing Belanger was also signing 13's ticket out of town.
ReplyDeleteCogliano has enough speed and a 1st rounder pedigree that a few teams will give him a chance before he has to look hard for work.
Maybe even one day Cogliano will be a good 3C or 3LW option, but that day isn't today.
The Oilers can't wait around any longer hoping he can do what a Belanger can do. The Belanger types are available through FA signings and trade and aren't particularly expensive to acquire and are better today than Cogliano may be tomorrow.
Not sure if he needs another voice, he's had 3 head coaches. He had a ton of opportunity here, much more than he earned. Time to move on.
Get back to me in 6 months and tell me if your still thinking that.
ReplyDeleteThat Cogliano is, as of July 5, 2011, a better bet than Lander? I have no doubt.
(That will probably still be true as of January 5. But even if it isn't, a foolish prediction that comes true is still a foolish prediction.)
He's a guy that can "quickly" skate himself safely into the opponents corner. Right where they want him to go.
ReplyDeleteIt's too bad, but hockey sense doesn't grow on trees and this holy-fast young man doesn't seem to have a lick of it.
Well put Woodguy.The kid has a lot of try but when we drafted RNH and signed Belanger and traded Fraser the C position changed(for the better).It is time to move on.
ReplyDeleteI hasten to add that I don't disagree with getting rid of Cogliano, if there's a non-trivial return. There are ample reasons to believe that the Oilers don't need him anymore. Anton Lander is not one of those reasons.
ReplyDeleteSuch a frustrating player. Just move to the wing and help a team win hockey games. It's that simple.
ReplyDeleteI love his effort level but he's making things way tougher on himself than they need to be.
@ Woodguy
ReplyDeleteAgreed, he's had too many coaching changes, just as Gagner has had. I don't think the Oilers have done Cogliano any favours - lots of playing time, but little in the way of development. I would say this last season with Renny was the only one with any sort up side for Cogliano and I think he responded quite well.
Nielson numbers are good for him and the work Zona did on WOWY shows he made more teammate better than worse. That's why I don't get all the hate -- mathwise* he doesn't look bad -- certainly not Brule/Jones bad and in chances for/against much better than Gagner (Cogliano actually was above team average except for the first 2 segment and had .570 the last segment when he was last man standing).
*I am new to the math side of things, hence the tempered statement.
"Anton Lander is not one of those reasons."
ReplyDeleteWelp, if Lander and Cogliano are fighting for the 4th line C spot (which could be a likely scenario), I don't hesitate to put Lander there. If the 4th line is going to consist of wingers like Eager and Hordichuk, I'd rather have a puck managing, defensively responsible player like Lander over the heart, hustle and determination of Cogliano.
I know its been awhile, but the Oilers are about to procure and produce some real centers. Horcoff gets a lot of heat, but he's the only real center the Oilers have. Belanger, RNH and Lander are real centers, guys that can check their hats, wins some battles, win some faceoffs and produce varying degrees of offense. The center position is about to be a position of strength fairly shortly, and it will be without the help of Gagner and Cogliano.
The center position is about to be a position of strength fairly shortly, and it will be without the help of Gagner and Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteJust so long as guys who have never taken a shift in a North American professional hockey game pan out the way you hope they do.
Woodguy said...
ReplyDelete"Signing Belanger was also signing 13's ticket out of town.
Cogliano has enough speed and a 1st rounder pedigree that a few teams will give him a chance before he has to look hard for work.
Maybe even one day Cogliano will be a good 3C or 3LW option, but that day isn't today.
The Oilers can't wait around any longer hoping he can do what a Belanger can do. The Belanger types are available through FA signings and trade and aren't particularly expensive to acquire and are better today than Cogliano may be tomorrow."
The logic train just left the station and you weren't on it WG.
In his first season in the NHL, Belanger (at the age of 23) scored 9G 12A 21P.
Cogliano, now entering his 24th year, would only need to score 8G 16A 24P to match Belanger's production at the same age.
Since Belanger will be 34 before Christmas, keeping him over Cogliano would be profoundly stupid.
If the Oilers make the playoffs in three years, Belanger will be 37 and, if they compete for the cup in 5 years he'll be 39.
Belanger is nothing more than a placeholder.
And moving Cogliano out for a lick and a promise is just not very bright.
If someone shows up and takes his job, fine, but we've seen this movie way too many times.
Eager - Brule - AC
ReplyDeleteSure, they'd be completely disoriented in their own zone for spells, but they'd sure be entertaining.
You're obviously stealing my idea of the Macbeth line from a couple of LT's posts back. A whole lotta nothing would happen in a hurry with this bunch.
And "Mr. Smith" I think you don't understand that when we talk about the Oilers we use the future perfect tense, as in, Lander makes Cogliano redundant(meaning in Oct 2012). C'mon, I figured a fellow as familiar with the nuances of stuff as you would know that! ;-)
"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDeleteThe center position is about to be a position of strength fairly shortly, and it will be without the help of Gagner and Cogliano.
Just so long as guys who have never taken a shift in a North American professional hockey game pan out the way you hope they do."
And this.
Hello LT, thanks for tweaking your site. It looks great and functions on my BlackBerry.
ReplyDeleteDSF: Well oh bugger they'l just have to sign another one after Belanger's expired.
ReplyDeleteBlogger flamingpavelbure said...
ReplyDeleteDSF: Well oh bugger they'll just have to sign another one after Belanger's expired.
Yes they will.
But growing your own is often a more prudent strategy.
I expect finding an elite third line centre isn't all that tough. :)
DSF: When what you try to grow into has more value, then probably not.
ReplyDeleteProbably Cogliano could fetch a higher pick then what an elite 3rd liner would command.
Just swap.
DSF: When what you try to grow into has more value, then probably not.
ReplyDeleteProbably Cogliano could fetch a higher pick then what an elite 3rd liner would command.
Just swap.
Right.
I'm sure the Canucks would trade Malhotra for Cogliano in a heartbeat. :)
Until someone beats Cogs out of a job, you keep him.
And putting all your chips on a 34 year old centre is just folly during a rebuild.
Damn it Cogs... A few hours later and I'm beginning to change my mind. After all, how many years has it been since the Oilers had anything close to depth at centre? Assuming RNH goes to Junior, keeping Cogs means the first call-up after Horcoff's inevitable injury is Lander. That's better depth than we've had for awhile. Can the Oilers afford to throw that away after going so bloody long without it? Plus, he's durable... he's the only damn centre that played 82 games last year and we had 5 of them! If only he could take a face-off...
ReplyDeleteBah! Hell with it, unless he can turn himself into a usable D-Man via trade, I say we keep him. I mean, he doesn't hurt the team and he's actually a trade-able asset.
(Full disclosure... I may change my mind tomorrow... damn you Cogliano!)
So why exactly is this an instant death knell for Cogliano's future with Edmonton? We've had players go to arbitration and honour their contracts before, yes?
ReplyDeleteMatheson tweets...
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky sounding like he'd like to sign on for more duty with Oil with all young players and changes. Last year at $4.1 mil cap hit.
DSF: Not him, not the highly recognized ones.
ReplyDeleteBut Reasoner, Moore and the gang who don't fetch too much money on the UFA market.
You can't get attached to them, you don't overpay, and it gets the job done.
Is there some reason why Cogliano can't be a 4th line center? Is his height really that big of a problem?
ReplyDeleteIf you want a player who's only function is to run players through the boards, then put them on the wing. Afterall, you can play 8 of them in a game. You only get 4 centers. And since the 4th line gets little ES icetime, you're 4th line center should be able to contribute on special teams. Cogliano also happens to be one of our better penalty killers (at least I felt he was last year).
I'm as excited as the next guy about Lander, but if he's more deserving of a roster spot than Cogliano, let him take it from him.
Another Cogliano thread, filled with post after post of triumphalist gloating from Traktor. Ugh.
ReplyDeletemisfit said...
ReplyDelete"Is there some reason why Cogliano can't be a 4th line center? Is his height really that big of a problem?
If you want a player who's only function is to run players through the boards, then put them on the wing. Afterall, you can play 8 of them in a game. You only get 4 centers. And since the 4th line gets little ES icetime, you're 4th line center should be able to contribute on special teams. Cogliano also happens to be one of our better penalty killers (at least I felt he was last year).
I'm as excited as the next guy about Lander, but if he's more deserving of a roster spot than Cogliano, let him take it from him.'
This.
Exactly.
Hey DSF. I have no problem with the things you say just wish it was easier to tell YOURs from OTHERS.
ReplyDeleteitalicize OTHERs comments maybe? Instructions here:
- Shift key, left pointing triangle bracket thingy above comma, lowercase i, right pointing triangle bracket thingy above period to begin quotation
- paste OTHERS comments
-Shift key, left pointing triangle bracket thingy, forward slash under question mark, lowercase i, right pointing triangle bracket thingy above period.
I don't know a keyboard from the side of my arse, and skipped typing class in HS so I had a spare to do acid. If I can do it you can do it man.
Clarke MacArthur pre TML is a good arbitration comp for Cogliano. Pretty similar statiscally, Cogliano may be a bit better. MacArthur got 2.4 mil from an arbitrator after making 1.4 mil the previous season.
ReplyDeleteYou'd figure on that scale Cogliano would get 1.8-2.2 range.
I am singing that old tune "Just Walk Away" as I think about one Mr Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteSign Madden for a year at a mill or less. Little long in the tooth but 51% on the dot, 25 points, and I believe #1 PK minutes with the Wild last year. Sounds just like Cogs except for being cheaper, and the ability to win a faceoff and kill penalties. Scoring's a sawoff.
Italicizing....
ReplyDelete<i>example text</i>
JFRY:
ReplyDeletei think we can all agree that cogs is a better C option this year than all the others listed. a 1 year deal and then ship him at the deadline or draft seems to make more sense, if we're trying to actually groom out kids and not send them screaming into the fire.
Limited minutes on a 4rth line isn't quite being thrown screaming into the fire.
He's still only possibly the 4rth best option behind Horc/Gags/Bellanger and 5th best if the Nuge makes the cut.
How much value is it to have Cogs playing limited ice time on a 4rth line? He's fast but small and how good does he look flanked by Eager and Jones or Hordichuk? He won't help that line win faceoffs and his defensive skills are limited.
Promethian:
f we stick with Cogs through his learning years, he'll be one of those types that really helps in a playoff run when he's pushing 30 and above...I say match the arbitration and let him grow. It's not like he's being relied upon in a prominent role or is taking someone else's spot that sopposedly deserves it more.
How much do you want to pay Cogliano to lose draws and not create energy flanked by beef on a 4rth line?
Woodguy:
Signing Belanger was also signing 13's ticket out of town.
Definitely!
DSF:
But growing your own is often a more prudent strategy.I'm sure the Canucks would trade Malhotra for Cogliano in a heartbeat. :)
Vancouver was prescient to have suffered all those difficult years of Malhotra's faceoff losses and poor defensive zone coverage to know have now drafted and developed their own elite 3rd line center, right? :p
Dangerman: What the ?
ReplyDeleteMacarthur went from 1,4 to 1,1 and now 3,25, a season where he popped +60 points.
Did I miss something, last year Cogliano had his chance to prove himself. His FO did improve some what, but not good enough to be the that third line center. I think it was VV's play and FO ability in those last 12 games that really did Cog's in. Cog's was regulated to the third and fourth lines while VV TOI increased with each game.
ReplyDeleteIs Lander good enough, I don't know, but one I know was that Lander went from a positive +/- to a -13 all with in the last quarter of the season. I can see Lander ending up in OK for at least a year to learn the North American game.
DSF - I agree, italicizing would make your posts much easier to read.
ReplyDeleteDSF, Misfit, SS and other Cogs boosters: I like Cogs, he took some important steps defensively last year, especially on the PK. There's just one problem with your arguments: he's not a centre.
ReplyDeleteA centre has to do two things differently from his wingers: win faceoffs and shoulder more defensive responsibilities. Cogliano may be starting to get the latter, but there's no evidence he'll ever be close to the former.
As such, the question isn't whether he's better than Lander or VV, but rather whether he's better than than 8 other wingers. I think the only thing it's safe to say in this discussion, his that he's not among the top 6 wingers at this point. For better or worse, we know that Renney is going to want one of Eager or Hordichuk in the lineup every night, so that leaves one regular spot where Cogliano can compete with Jones.
I think Cogliano is a more useful player than Jones, but I think his greatest use might be to include in a trade package to acquire another D-man or goalie. He's definitely not an effetive centre though and I'd rather see what a guy like Lander can do with the job rather than have Cogs be a placeholder for a job he can't do.
Another Cogliano thread, filled with post after post of triumphalist gloating from Traktor. Ugh.
ReplyDeleteHa!
I do think that the Oilers might be in a spot of trouble with Cogliano. If I were Cogliano I would be asking for a raise in light of Brule's payday. It's very likely that he is awarded a salary in the area of 1.9 to 2.2 million and we see the Oilers walk away.
DSF,
ReplyDeleteI was actually driving the logic train, but it seems that you were under it.
I'm talking about Cogliano and Belanger today, and you start talking about Belanger over 10 years ago. Weird.
Since Belanger will be 34 before Christmas, keeping him over Cogliano would be profoundly stupid.
Why? The Oilers need a 3C who can actually win faceoffs and play against toughs. Belanger can do it today, Cogliano can't.
If the Oilers make the playoffs in three years, Belanger will be 37 and, if they compete for the cup in 5 years he'll be 39.
I doubt Belanger will be with the team after 2 years. You were right when you said he was a place holder. He can actually hold that place for 2 years, Cogliano so far can't.
And moving Cogliano out for a lick and a promise is just not very bright.
And there you go again assuming the future and arguing against something that hasn't happened. Again.
If someone shows up and takes his job, fine, but we've seen this movie way too many times.
It has. His name is Belanger. In two years someone probably takes his job.
But growing your own is often a more prudent strategy.
I agree for assets that are very expensive to acquire (mostly top 6 fowards)
Despite the Oilers not having a true 3C in 4 years they are neither tough nor expensive to acquire so growing your own isn't always the optimal strategy if you want to be better today.
As the Oilers start becoming a better team, and hopefully one of the better ones in the league, this type of player becomes more available as you have sought after FA's willing to take a discount to play for a winner (i.e. Maholtra)
Also,
There is harm in having Cogliano as your 4C and not dealing him this summer.
It will diminish his trade value.
If you try to trade him next year and he averaged 10min TOI, that's a far cry from the 17min he averaged last year.
Its like having a truck that isn't quite getting the fuel mileage you want so you are going to trade it in, except you loan it to your cousin to use as a farm truck and he beats the shit out of it for a year and significantly lowers its trade in value.
Jay and WG beat me to it - only because blogger ate my post yesterday;) - but my deal with keeping 13 for this year is it lessens his trade value.
ReplyDeleteDown the middle the only constants going forwards will be RNH and Lander most likely. The latter is likely being looked to take Belanger's role in two seasons and the hunt will be on for another offensive centre to join Hopkins along with the hope that the found guy or Hopkins can play two ways; that guy plus Lander will give us two matchup pivots.
10 will be gone as soon as Lander looks like he can play. The 4th line pivot will be a guy they just pick up who can kill penalties and win draws; maybe a Scot Nichol type.
In the meantime I think 13 did a great job killing penalties in the last half of the season - and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong - but with Belanger and Horc in the house he's not gonna have to take many draws anyway so the fact he can't win one won't kill us.
I don't mind rolling with an Eager-13-28 4th line as long as 13's doing a job killing penalties. You could have 10-94, 13-28 and Belanger-91 as your six PK guys and just go high energy all the time.
That being said - and I don't think 13's a big chip to dangle - sometime somewhere some of the pieces need to be moved to to bring in a real dman. You can hope that some of the kids in-house ascend to that level but some of them haven't even played in the A yet. So someone has to move to bring in that D.
13 could be a part of that and if we officially 4th line him then his value won't be the same next year.
Like Matt N I also read that post and I think there is merit there. For all his speed, Cogs can't seem to get very much out of it. He has poor edges.
ReplyDeleteHe should be an awesome PK'er, closing gaps and lanes very quickly.
On the kid's line which seemed so offensively dangerous, it must have been Nilsson driving the bus, because I haven't seen it since from Cogs or Gagner.