Since Steve Tambellini has taken over (July 31, 2008) the Oilers have made done very little from mid-July through end August.
They sign their rfa's, make adjustments in the front office and scouting and fill out the AHL roster with minor league veterans.
The Oilers have an unbalanced look again, but that appears to be the preference of management. This team has too many forwards, questions on defense and all kinds of worry in goal.
We wait.
Here's a first blush look at what the roster might look like in the fall. Starters followed by depth, and all dollars are cap hit, with (I believe) bonus numbers included in the totals.
- GOAL: Devan Dubnyk (800k); Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.75M).
- DEFENSE: Ryan Whitney (4M); Tom Gilbert (4M); Ladislav Smid (2.25M); Cam Barker (2.25M); Andy Sutton (2.125M); Theo Peckham (1.075M); Jeff Petry (1M).
- CENTER: Shawn Horcoff (5.5M); Sam Gagner (2.275M); Eric Belanger (1.75M); Andrew Cogliano (1.5M-est); Gilbert Brule (1.85M).
- LEFT WING: Taylor Hall (3.75M); Ryan Smyth (6.25M); Magnus Paajarvi (1.525M); Ben Eager (1.1M); Darcy Hordichuk (825k).
- RIGHT WING: Ales Hemsky (4.1M); Jordan Eberle (1.158M); Linus Omark (875k); Ryan Jones (1.5M).
- BUYOUTS: Sheldon Souray (2.4M); Robert Nilsson (417k).
LT - after so many years of predicting a trade from about this time of year through to about October but never seeing it happen - you give up - because of that, I am now certain that we will see a trade.
ReplyDelete:)
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ReplyDeleteMorning LT - my littlest guy has be up earlier than I would like but has been good about it so I can see the post.
ReplyDeleteYour line-up presumes that RNH does not crack the roster. Objectively that may make sense but even with all the cautious talk from Tambo, I have to think he makes it.
Since the lockout, only E.Johnson failed to crack the team's roster after being selected 1st overall and that was because of injury. RNH will be on the team past game 9 with or without a resolution to the Cogliano trade-watch.
When that happens, what does is ELC and bonuses do to the cap?
Interesting comment by Steve Serdachny in an article from the Sun.
ReplyDelete“It is one of the most amazing individualized plans for players that you’ve ever seen,” said Serdachny. “The amount of resources, time and energy that have been put into this is enormous. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a first-round pick or someone who’s just been invited to camp, it’s an action plan for success.”
I think one of the most critical changes that we have seen in the Oilers org over the last few years is the effort put into development. The Oilers now have a farm team AND they talk to their young players.
Douglas: Funny, my youngest was up because of the storms so we're all having an early day here.
ReplyDeleteI didn't put RNH on the roster because imo the Oilers will have to make a decision on one of the listed players and I wanted to keep track of them.
My guess: Brule on LTIR.
bookie: Yeah, I've given up on the Oilers doing business from now until TC. Balance must be a 4 letter word.
i think and hope that RNH goes back to junior and Lander mI think he'll impress like Gagner did in his first camp, and while I think the Nuge will do well, I expect Lander to outplay him and Cogliano and earn the 4th line spot.
ReplyDeleteFear you are right LT, what you see is what we are gonna get. Delighted to see money spent on development because it does not count against the cap and is an incremental advantage to the Oil. We are a quality D and an NHL goalie from fighting for a playoff spot. That may in fact be why nothing will occur. It's too early to be good and the next wave of talent is too green
ReplyDeleteDick Williams passed away at age 82
If you're right and I'm sure you are LT then it confirms what we've suspected of this roster... LOTTERY!
ReplyDeleteClarkenstein: Yeah, I don't see a way to avoid it. As PDO noted here recently, adequate goaltending could save this team about 35 goals and maybe these kids improve enough to recover another 20 from the deficit.
ReplyDeleteBut they didn't address the G (aside from Danis). How in holy hell is that possible?
Back in the Dick Williams days CBC, in their wisdom, used to tape delay the games to start @ 7pm on the prairies. I had a satellite dish (one of those monsters!!) My neighbor was also a big Expos fan but he didn't have a dish. He didn't want to know the outcome so he could watch but when the game was over I would phone and just say "3-2 Expos..Final!" while he was watching in about the 4th inning. He was pissed at me for the better part of 10 years!!
ReplyDelete"I've learned over the years that counting on the Oilers to do something at this late date (not really, but they don't do much) is an exercise in frustration."
ReplyDeleteThat pretty much sums it up.....lottery anyone? Too many holes still, not enough putty.
LT: As I recall, PDO's logic was pretty reasonable. Basically, if you applied Dubnyk's save % across Khabibulin's starts, you'd end up saving 35 goals from a simple switch. Obviously, if Khabby gets trotted out there every second night we'll know the fix is in, but if not it's not unreasonable to assume at least double digit improvement in goals against. That, plus your 20G would put them well out of the lottery.
ReplyDeleteAs for a trade, given the number of contracts, I think its more than likely that they make some kind of deal for more goaltending or defence help. That may be optimistic, but recall the wailing and gnashing of teeth during the days leading up to the Smyth deal - Tambellini waited for the right arrangement while the fans were impatient to get things done.
The moves this summer have been generally solid and that's bought a little patience in my book.
I'm thinking this is our transition year where we go from being the worst team in the league, to being a bad team but not the worst team and finish in the lottery picking between 6th overall and 10th overall. I mean that scenario does require Dubynk to prove that last years encouraging performance was legit and he can post respectable starting goaltender numbers, as well as increased offensive production from our young players. Its a plausible scenario although obviously there is lots of room for things to go sideways as yet.
ReplyDeleteTambellini has apparently indicated that RNH will absolutely get at least 9 games. This in response to questions from interested fans at development camp. It seems to suggest that regardless of what happens at arbitration Cogliano will not be an Edmonton Oilers on opening night.
ReplyDeleteEither we sign him for a reasonable amount then move him, or simply cut him loose. If we are waiting for the other shoe to drop I think that is it.
This would be my guess for opening night roster. Hartikainen and Lander start with OKC.
ReplyDeleteCAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Ryan Smyth ($6.250m) / Sam Gagner ($2.275m) / Ales Hemsky ($4.100m)
Taylor Hall ($3.750m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Jordan Eberle ($1.158m)
Linus Omark ($0.875m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($3.750m) / Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson ($1.525m)
Ben Eager ($1.100m) / Eric Belanger ($1.750m) / Ryan Jones ($1.500m)
Darcy Hordichuk ($0.825m) / / Gilbert Brule ($1.850m)
DEFENSEMEN
Cam Barker ($2.250m) / Ryan Whitney ($4.000m)
Theo Peckham ($1.075m) / Tom Gilbert ($4.000m)
Ladislav Smid ($2.250m) / Andy Sutton ($2.125m)
Jeff Petry ($1.000m)
GOALTENDERS
Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.750m) / Devan Dubnyk ($0.800m)
BUYOUTS: Sheldon Souray ($2.400m) / Robert Nilsson ($0.416m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,275,000; BONUSES: $3,937,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $4,025,000
Keep in mind that pretty much every team outside of Colorado and Edmonton last year was in the playoff hunt in the later portion of the season. I think this team will certainly not make the playoffs, but they might actually be mentioned in the playoff race picture up until game 70 or so before they end up finishing the in the bottom three of the conference. That, sadly, is progress.
ReplyDeleteI guess, after 2 last place finishes, there's no where to go but up. (Famous last words)
I think that they should have signed Brad Richards, traded for Pronger and offered Voukun more than he wanted....then we would see the playoffs this season.
ReplyDeleteI posted this in the weighted picks thread, but I believe it is relevant:
ReplyDeleteMore faceoff wins will be a factor. As Gabe points out in this (admittedly dated) article an improvement of 10% can account for 25 goals.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/faceoff.html
Belanger and Horc will be a notable improvement from the Gag/Cog FO%. I think 25 goal diff improvement would be a reasonable expectation with more perhaps from 4C.
till_horcoff_is_coach said...
ReplyDelete"Belanger and Horc will be a notable improvement from the Gag/Cog FO%. I think 25 goal diff improvement would be a reasonable expectation with more perhaps from 4C."
A +25 in goal differential would move the team ahead of only Colorado from last season but Colorado has improved its goaltending substantially.
The real target this season should be Columbus who were +33 ahead of the Oilers last season but they too have improved their team significantly.
Another 15th place finish seems highly likely.
Ideally, they'd have found a way to make playoffs this season - I'd say the more tastes 4, 14, and 91 get of postseason action before their ELC's expire, the better. The more that these players commit to YEG, the more that other players will too. It's about winning, yes?
ReplyDeleteOh, meant to add: this makes success in the 2012/2013 season absolutely paramount. I feel that Tambellini is like a 6 year old kid who just got all of the best lego sets for Christmas. There are all sorts of sweet rocketships he could build but until it happens I'm still going to worried that he just ends up smashing everything.
ReplyDelete/nostalgia
goal differential is interesting, if the Oilers can improve by +35 goals they'd still be sixth worst in the league, going off last year's results.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the changes they've made improve them near that much, but it's not impossible they improve that much internally, through injuries progression of young players, etc.
I'm not sure what to make of the goaltending. I'm not one that necessarily expects progression from Dubnyk, he could easily take a step backwards and I also wouldn't be shocked if Khabibulin improves somewhat. One could argue that wouldn't be the worst scenario ever for the Oilers management - Khabibulin has a good enough year to be tradeable next summer and Dubnyk's stats take a bit of a dip (or don't improve a ton) would likely reduce what he'd cost in an extension next summer.
given the number of contracts, I think its more than likely that they make some kind of deal for more goaltending or defence help.
ReplyDeleteCactus, it's not optimistic. It's reasonable if you're trying to win games. If you don't do that, you're either unreasonable, or not trying to win.
It seems to suggest that regardless of what happens at arbitration Cogliano will not be an Edmonton Oilers on opening night.
Well jon, another option is that it means that Brule is LTIR-bound, and Cogs will be jumping around on the 3-4 lines with the other wingers depending on who the Oilers are playing and how various players are performing. Counting on a trade with this crew is... a poor gamble.
If we are talking about teams that are likely to be competing with the Oilers for those 8th-15th spots in the west, why not look at who actually got better and worse. How about:
Minnesota? D weaker, better scoring, maybe a saw off?
Dallas? Lost marquee forward. Fired competant coach. Hired Studly Wonderbaum. Much Weaker
Calgary? Gave up best Dman to unlaod bad contract. Weaker.
Anaheim? Lateral Moves. May lose Selane. Equal at best.
St. Louis? Brought in two veteran Fs. Stronger.
Columbus? Brought in 1C, PP QB, lost Decent Shutdown D. Stronger.
Colorado? Lost Best Puckmoving D, brought in ??? Goalie. Kids another year better. Maybe be weaker, but goalies are like black magic...
Edmonton? Dumped dregs of lineup, brought in actual hockey players, and gambled on some poor bet D-men. If healthy, they are WAY better. If unhealthy, likely similar results.
Now, I'm no expert on what other teams have done, so my analysis is likely shit. But my point remains that most teams got worse compared to the oilers, and if the team can keep any combination of 4, 6, 10, 14, 83, 89 healthy for the season, this team is going to be a hell of a lot better, esp. when it comes to Goal Diff, because they might even score more than 1 goal a night...
Goal differential is interesting, if the Oilers can improve by +35 goals they'd still be sixth worst in the league, going off last year's results.
ReplyDeleteI really think that this is a reasonable scenario for Edmonton. I'd be willing to guess that +35 goals via goaltending is reasonable, either through Dubnyk making more starts or Khabibulin sucking marginally less. I'm also thinking +15 for development of the youth is reasonable and just to acknowledge Belanger and the marginal improvement of Edmonton's bottom-6 forwards, I'll give the Oilers another +10. Complete blue-skying, perhaps, but you add it all up and it's +60.
Add up all of these miracles and Edmonton is a -16 team. That would be 21st best and place Edmonton solidly outside the playoffs. Even after generous predictions of improvement.
*bangs head against desk*
I'm surprised you guys think the Oilers won't make the playoffs next year. They have a plan to make sure almost no goals are scored against us during the season.
ReplyDelete1) The first player to score against us gets a flying crosscheck into the boards from Ben Eager.
2) The Second player to score against us gets a stick through the kidney from Darcy Hordichuk.
3) The third player to score against us gets eaten by Andy Sutton (that guy is a REAL monster)
4) By the time Renney leans over to talk to Theo Peckham the other team will avoid the puck like it's the strip club their sister dances at.
BAM! PLAYOFFS!
DuLock - but can we score 4 goals a game? #fingerscrossed
ReplyDelete(Great post!)
I think we're improved enough to compete for a playoff spot without injury.
ReplyDeleteThis forward group is way better than some of what the other West team have to offer.
NJ got away with a shitty defense each year out.
Play Dubby more.
Murat-Brian Burke said making the playoffs was all about truculence. He never mentioned this "goal-scoring" thing of which you speak and Brian Burke cannot tell a lie....oh wait maybe that was Lincoln. My bad.
ReplyDeleteLT, I don't see this team as a lottery team. I remember going the CBJ game where Hall broke his ankle (not realizing of course he was out) and thinking there was no way we would get the top pick. Hall was an absolute force.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers finished the season without Hall, Whitney, Hemsky, Gagner, Horcoff and Ryan Smyth. We upgraded our 4th line and added a checking C.
The teams heart is back.
So I'll pick closer to playoffs then lottery.
Truculence and eye-glow - two absolutely crucial ingredients in the awesomesauce of hockey. Add a touch of big body presence, sprinkle with fresh clutch and you'll have delicious Cups of Stanley in no time.
ReplyDelete(Last part sounded kind of dirty, didn't it? Oh well, ha.)
I am not as concerned with the goaltending as others. I think another solid top 4D will help out our goaltending. Plus if Khabby doesn't bounce back (which I think he might), we can bring up Danis as a serviceable goalie.
ReplyDeleteTo add to that, I recognize that an improvement in goal could be made. But, I personally think an improvement on Defense is needed much more and would lead to better goaltending. Just look at NJ as an example. When Brodeur goes down it doesn't matter who is in net, they seem to perform well.
ReplyDeleteON HF Boards there is a Who is better BLah Blah!
ReplyDeleteFrom My Post:
2010/2011: There is on average 60.3 min/GM LAst year edmonton gave up 260 Goals in game play 10 Empty net.
Khabi 31SOG/GM 46GM .890SV% 1389SOG 153GA
Dubnyk 32.2SOG/GM 33GM .916SV% 1103SOG 93GA
Gerber 31SOG/GM 3GM .958SV% 95SOG 4GA
Hopefully Khabi gets a nice winter break in Arizona for breaking court order.
I would be oK with dubnyk and Danis at the same 31 shots/gm
Dubnyk 57GM 1767SOG .916SV% 148G
Danis 25GM 775SOG .910SV% 70G
10 empty net goals.
I would be ok with 228GA a 32GA improvement by not playing khabibullin. Our MVP the last two years as Tambellinni says. If we do not play habibulin there is no chance we get #1 the last two years. 228GA gets you in the #15, 16, 17 teams.
Smyth Back;
A healthy Hemsky,
Belanger for stronger FO presence in D zone,
Eagers 8G 8A for 68GM/SN over Jacques and Storts combined 4G 4A
Hall, Gagner, Eberle, Whitney, For the full season
Pajarvi with Belanger and Omark instead of 4th line and 3rd line minutes.
Omarks presence full time on PP.
Barker, Sutton instead of Vandermeer, Foster, Strudwick (???)
I think all these are upgrades.
We still need a RH Tough Comp Strong PK Dman to pair with Whitney.
fingers crossed for a Khabi buried in the minors, and a Ray Emery signing.
ReplyDeleteprobly won't happen though
Philly is shopping Bobrovsky. Wonder what the cost would be... figure it would be cheap.
ReplyDeletePS I changed my handle from Sean to Slopitch. (too many Seans out there)
I'm about as big of a Smyth fan as there gets but when assuming he adds to the team you have to remember that Penner was an Oiler for 3/4 of the year as well. Smyth is effectively replacing a very good LW; he is not simply an addition.
ReplyDeleteI think this team will do what young teams do, it will struggle mightily with consistency and will occasionally tease us with flashes of the better days to come (i.e. Eberle's goal of the year, Hall's game against the Leafs and BJ's, etc.). As far as predicting where they'll finish in the standings, I think there are two factors that make that exceedingly difficult if not a mug's game altogether.
ReplyDeleteOne is special teams. They have the 'potential' to be very good on the pp OR very bad. Two and it's partially related to one is chemistry. This is always such an underrated component in the makeup of a winning hockey team. It's why the Rangers never won with free agent laden rosters for the longest time. It's why a line made up of plugs like Pandolfo, Stevenson and Madden can catch lightning in a bottle and contribute mightily to a Cup run for their team.
To me, this was one of MacT's (i.e. MacBlender) biggest failing, his inability to facilitate consistent chemistry in the lineup. Can Renney do it? I don't know as yet, but when it arrives it's some powerful mojo.
There are too many factors to predict how many GF / GA Edmonton will have. The error on the predictions makes it almost useless imo.
ReplyDeleteLet me use Colorado as an example:
07/08 = +12
08/09 = -58
09/10 = +11
10/11 = -61
How would you account / predict those 70 point swings??
Let me add Colorado's position during those years:
ReplyDelete07/08 = 6th in the West
08/09 = 15th in the West
09/10 = 8th in the West
10/11 = 14th in the West
I'm about as big of a Smyth fan as there gets but when assuming he adds to the team you have to remember that Penner was an Oiler for 3/4 of the year as well. Smyth is effectively replacing a very good LW; he is not simply an addition.
ReplyDeleteMaybe, but Smyth wants to be here. Man gets a huge power boost playing on his home turf. It's like one of those special abilities that some characters have in video games - Smyth's is Clutch goalsocring +100% when playing for Edmonton Oilers. That's a HUGE upgrade over Penner's Specials, which were Screening Goaltender +50% for 6 hours after consuming 2 or more Donairs and +50% Clutch Scoring seaon after getting ripped by coach.
You may not agree yet, but its definitely an upgrade.
shau_co said: "...if Khabby doesn't bounce back (which I think he might)..."
ReplyDeleteThe scary part about NK is that he can't "bounce back" because he didn't fall very far. His .890sv% last season (too lazy to look up ESSV%) isn't too far off his .897sv% average since the lockout. A 'bounce back season' from him is a 6 goal differential, or one win if he starts 30 games. Not to mention, asking him to bounce back as a 39y/o with serious health and legal issues may be a bit of a stretch.
I think at this point management is simply unwilling to cut bait with Khabibulin with two years left. How much of Katz's money can really be pissed away like this? I don't see any reason to expect them to address goaltending more than they already have, assuming Roy is going to OKC for sure.
ReplyDeleteNext off-season it will be much more palatable to trade or bury Khabibulin or hope/pray/beg that he retires. In the meantime all we can do is hope Renney gives Dubie 55+ games and covers the bet, and maybe rekhab can bounce back enough to have a "less-negative" trade value.
I'd save the energy hoping for a shoe to drop on goaltending.
I'm not sure I understand the rationale that assumes we have too many forwards. 14 forwards is hardly an unusual number for a team to carry, and there aren't any veterans being sent to OKC in LT's scenario. If any of RNH - Lander - Hartikainen force their way onto the team in training camp, so be it. Trade or demote whoever deemed most useless.
ReplyDeleteIs this not what we've been clamoring for these past years? Real competition for jobs? A chance a veteran can lose his job to a kid, or on the flip side a kid insisting on a spot ala Brodziak, vs being gift-wrapped one like years trio? I see no reason to set aside a spot for RNH. Make him force your hand.
Obviously there is room to improve quality at all positions, but at forward at least there is something that resembles depth. No reason to get rid of that.
Hard to think the differential won't take a substantial leap toward the + side. That said, playoffs are fairly unlikely. Probably make a push late spring and be a half-dozen short but give the rookies the taste of the chase, enough to push them over the top for 12/13. If this team is .500, that's a successful season in my mind
ReplyDeleteI think either Khabi was injured last year, partially causing his decline in performance or else Katz is just tired of wasting $$$ after the Souray debacle last season.
ReplyDeleteWith his boat anchor contract, it still made sense in my eye to buy out Khabi this summer and save real $$$, but they didn't.
So, either Katz said don't waste the money or they actually believe he will rebound to a reasonable level this season.
Or maybe, mgmt is just blind to it all ....
PS I changed my handle from Sean to Slopitch. (too many Seans out there)
ReplyDeleteIs that pronounced Slo-pitch or Slop-itch? :-)
"Smyth's is Clutch goalsocring +100% when playing for Edmonton Oilers. That's a HUGE upgrade over Penner's Specials, which were Screening Goaltender +50% for 6 hours after consuming 2 or more Donairs and +50% Clutch Scoring seaon after getting ripped by coach."
ReplyDelete*slow clap*
I agree, there is no problem having too many good players. Seguin was Boston's #5 center, and they won the Cup.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it's a reasonable expectation that one of Hemsky/Horcoff/Smyth will be injured at any given time (i.e. will collectively miss 82 games). That's why you need depth. There's plenty of room for, say, Omark, even if Hartikainen or somebody else takes a big step forward.
The idea that the young guys won't get enough playing time is ridiculous. Haven't we been saying all along that the Oilers bring these young guys along too fast anyways?
Am I the only one who looks at that overall cap hit and is a little depressed? Kids aren't getting paid yet but we still have only a few million to work with. I guess Souray's buy-out comes off the books when relevant, etc., but I hope they figure out this cap thing when they decide to compete.
ReplyDeleteI think management's expectation this year is to progress by a few notches but not so high that the notch won't be exceeded in 2012-2013. Maybe a 12th-13th place finish or so with DD getting more time and the D-corps left at least one right-pairing guy short. Which is to say I don't think D or G help is coming and they are still evaluating.
Just to add to that thought:
ReplyDeleteBelanger was a big addition and Smyth looks great in the LW spot but I think the upgrades this offseason were, in the short term at least, more geared towards player development and smoothing the transition from tank to winner -- give the kids a little more help so they aren't drowning -- than competing this year. So you bring in Barker for the one-year contract because if he turns it around maybe he helps you next year when you start to compete, etc., but if he doesn't you can look elsewhere. And you take the year to see what you got in your new young D (Petry, Marincin, etc)before making your major D moves. And if Weber demands a trade to Edmonton or something maybe they'll facilitate it but otherwise I think it is only a minor deal (e.g. Cogs for a 4D if we're lucky) from here on out. So until they know they can make the playoffs they'll be managing expectations.
Sucks for us who want a real team this year but I think 2012 is the year they try for the playoffs but they probably won't admit that until the thing is a slam dunk.
Flaming:
ReplyDeleteSo, their defense didn't matter? Obviosly goaltending is critical, but my point is that there are too many factors to accurately predict where a team will finish, how many more goals they will score and how fewer they will let in...
If you know the secret formula, you must be rich from gambling on sports...
Shau_CO: Well their players were pretty similar.
ReplyDeleteSV% just went up and down both times.
The goalie just has such a big effect on a team.
I would be more cautios about a dubnyk/danis set.
ReplyDeleteUntil I look at our dmen.
There situation faced, Who they face
and how they did GA.leagu average 2.40GA/60
(Total Comp = [QC – QT]) Range;
1st pair .246 to .041
2nd pair .040 to -.040
Qual Comp Range;
1st pair .128 to .011
2nd Pr .010 to -.034
Dmen that Faced the best in the toughest situation achieving GA
RYAN SUTER
IAN COLE
JASON GARRISON
NICKLAS GROSSMAN
AARON ROME
MIKE WEAVER
DOUGLAS MURRAY
ROB SCUDERI
RYAN WHITNEY
KEITH YANDLE
MARC STAAL
KEITHAULIE
DREWDOUGHTY
ANSSISALMELA
JOSHGORGES
MARCMETHOT
DANBOYLE
ERICBREWER
DANGIRARDI
ROBYNREGEHR
Dmen that were near GA Average with improvement or reduced situation / Comp should thrive.
HAL GILL
SAMI SALO
JAY BOUWMEESTER
BRENT SEABROOK
P.K.SUBBAN
THEO PECKHAM
ROSTISLAV KLESLA
BRAD STUART
Dmen who face tough situation with average Comp this group face tough situation you have to balance Qual comp versus Average to decide on Situation and comp that they can thrive in.
KEITH BALLARD
MARK FRASER
ADAM MCQUAID
MARK FAYNE
MIKE WEBER
CHRIS TANEV
CORY SARICH
STEVE KAMPFER
ALEXANDRE PICARD
PAUL MARTIN
MICHALROZSIVAL
STEVE MONTADOR
MARK STUART
NIKITA NIKITIN
NIKLAS KRONWALL
ANDREW ALBERTS
ALEX GOLIGOSKI
RONHAINSEY
DMITRY KULIKOV
TYLER SLOAN
JOHNY ODUYA
ANDY GREENE
CARL GUNNARSSON
KEATON ELLERBY
MIKE LUNDIN
LADISLAV SMID
Dman that face the toughest Comp with Average situation
JOHNNY BOYCHUK
NIKLAS HJALMARSSON
ZDENO CHARA
JAROSLAV SPACEK
BROOKS ORPIK
COLIN WHITE
ROMAN HAMRLIK
DEREK MORRIS
ANDREJ SEKERA
JEFF SCHULTZ
ADRIAN AUCOIN
SHEA WEBER
ALEX PIETRANGELO
What stands out to me is everyone advocates Shea weber. he prevents 1 more goal every 12 games compared to peckahm facing equal competition in a better teamate situation. Sorry 6M more.
Whitney last year was an elite even dman and one of the most complete.
Peckahm face 1st level comp in the most difficult tam situation one of 28 dmen in the league. was near the league average. A drop down to second pairing shutdown role should be viable for him.
Smid is on the barrier of 1st pair tough comp faced with the toughest team situation. Clearly based on the right side we can go with who ever pairs up as 2nd pair third pair.
Sutton faced Difficult 6th most difficult total comp situation in the league. he did against third pairing competition. but killed the GA. A third pir role should not be a problem.
Gilbert Faced average comp in tough total situation. he was one of the five worst Ga dmen in the league.
From this info a Left side Whitney, Peckham, Smid should kill.
Our right side is Shite. Gilbert in 2nd Pair with peckham and playing with a forward group of Smyth Gagner hemsky should function well at even.
Whitney-XXX playing with hall-horcoff - Eberle
Smid- Sutton supporting a line of Pajarvi-Belanger-Omark
Man do we need a Rightside 1st pair dman.
When you lok at Comp And total. It becomes very evident that Goalies. have a huge effect on d performance.
ReplyDeleteOn Khabibulin: has anyone considered the possibility that Khabby was more of a Katz signing than a Tambellini one? Anyone familiar with Dan Snyder, owner of the Washington Redskins, can tell you that sometimes an owner, flush with cash, will mandate certain decisions that a GM might otherwise not make. It can sometimes be hard to tell the difference because a current GM will always defend these moves as their own (or risk becoming a "former" GM). Obviously, this is pure speculation, but it might explain why the Oilers are unwilling to flush him.
ReplyDeleteGogliano: the Oilers certainly aren't shot in terms of cap space. The only long term deal that doesn't look great is Horcoff's and as the cap increases every year, this will become increasingly less burdensome. Remember, almost $3M is tied up in buyouts and Ryan Smyth is getting $6.25M. Also, while most of the kids may not be getting paid, Hall's cap hit is already $3.75M - even if he's the next Stamkos, his next contract won't add more than $3.25M to that.
ESPN.com did an analysis of how much of an impact each team's offseason moves has had, based on the change in each team's GVT (Goals vs Threshold - similar to VORP in baseball.)
ReplyDeleteTeam Change in GVT
Washington 29.8
Toronto 21.1
Florida 16.3
N.Y. Rangers 14.8
Edmonton 12.7
Buffalo 11.3
Columbus 10.1
N.Y. Islanders 8.1
Carolina 7.4
Detroit 6.8
St. Louis 3.9
Los Angeles 3.7
Ottawa 3.5
Chicago 2.2
Colorado 1.3
Anaheim 0.9
New Jersey 0.0
Pittsburgh -0.9
Dallas -2.4
Boston -3.3
Winnipeg -4.2
Calgary -6.4
San Jose -6.8
Minnesota -10.6
Tampa Bay -13.0
Nashville -13.4
Vancouver -13.9
Montreal -25.5
Philadelphia -25.9
Phoenix -27.6
So lets see here. Opening night lineup 2011:
ReplyDeleteGoodbye Penner, Foster, Vandermeer, Jaques, Fraser, Stortini, Strudwick, and MacIntyre.
Hello Smyth, Belanger, Eager, Hordichuk, Barker, and Sutton.
Factor in fewer than 82 from Smyth, Hemsky, Horcoff and Whitney.
When the word WINNING is used in conjunction with the Oilers it's almost as funny as when Charlie Sheen says it.
I can't figure out which is sadder. Managements abilities or fans flocking to prospect camps, the ticket office, or lined up to buy the 15th tweek of the same jersey worn in the 80's.
Thankfully, being a Roughrider fan has given me much insight.
Excellent post gogliano.
ReplyDeleteTambellini really isn't kidding when he says this is year 2 of a 5 year plan. This team is patchwork at best until some of the kids are ready to be moved up from the A.
The future forward situation looks promising enough so I suspect this year is designated to filling the pipeline with future D and goaltending. Might have been the wrong order but that's nitpicking.
Oilers aren't about winning NOW or the immediate future. Katz is standing in front of us, arms spread wide, strongly backlit with wings open, looking down from above upon the splendor of a gilded temple, believers flocking from far and wide to witness Taylor and Ryan hoisting the grail high above their heads.
If you look close you can see he's winking.
How much of Katz's money can really be pissed away like this?
ReplyDeleteThat's money that was well-invested in two years of pull-position for the Stu MacGreggor 500. It's already bought one King in the making, and may have gotten us another one!
Besides, Katz doesn't piss away his money - he pisses away fan's money.
It is extremely unlikely that the Oilers make the playoffs, regardless of what they do in the off season. Teams finish last for a reason and usually have too much wrong with them to fix in just one off season.
ReplyDeleteSince the NHL expanded to 30 teams, only 2 teams have finished last and made the playoffs the following year - NYI and Philadelphia. Philly was a playoff team the season before they finished last, so it's fair to say they had more of a talent base to build from as they retooled. The Islanders, like the Oilers, finished last two years running. To make the playoffs the Islanders turned prospects - Jokinen, Luongo, Chara and Spezza - into actual NHL players, and it did get them into the playoffs for two years, after which they plummeted right back out again.
The Oilers are likely to be better next year, but realistically the playoffs are probably out of reach.
Marc just by giving Dubnyk 55 games and Danis 27Games improves our goals against by 32. do you understand how bad Our MVP was.
ReplyDeleteWin more face off and two lines that should steer in the correct direction. we end up with less shots against. 228-222 goals aginst gives us a chance.
No right minded GM would have Played our MVP that much.
rickibear:
ReplyDeleteJust to play devil's advocate here. Did the GM force the coach to play the MVP that many games, or did the coach force the MVP to play because he wasn't confident of who was in front of him?
Or for conspiracy theorists, did the coach play the MVP that much to prove a point to the GM?
Certainly w/DD playing more games our GA will improve, but the coach needs to play him more and didn't show a willingness to that last season. Come to think of it, he was the ONLY kid who was sheltered last season.
rickibear
ReplyDeleteThat assumes that he'll be able to match or exceed his save percentage from last season. He might, but he has less than 50 games of experience in his NHL career, so it's dangerous to count on it.
History suggest that young players are inconsistent and do not always develop in a straight line. The Oilers had 7 rookies play 30+ games last season. It would be great if they all took a step forward, but history tells us that we shouldn't count on it.
Last summer I was reading a Leafs blog where everyone was convinced that they were now a playoff team. I pointed out that for them to score the same number of goals as the lower seeds in the playoffs would require every player on the team to meet or exceed their career high points total and suggested that that was improbable. Injuries and inexperience mean that usually some of your players do worse than the previous season, some do better and some are about the same. And so it was.
I think that the Oilers will be better next season. A few of those 7 rookies will have breakout seasons. But a few probably won't. A few of our key veterans will stay injury free all season. But a few more will probably miss susbtantial chunks of the season.
The end result is probably finishing between 20-25 because this to me looks like a team that needs every single card to fall in its favour to make the playoffs.
No right minded GM would have Played our MVP that much.
ReplyDeleteEither you believe that playing DD more would have meant the Oilers made the playoffs (which is insane), or you are really upset that the team did not finish 12th instead of 15th.
As it is, I'd rather have the first pick than the 5th in each round.
You ignore the fact that DD was sheltered on the advice of Chabot. They sat out DD to protect his confidence and when he was having trouble with technique in practice. This was a coaching decision, not a GM decision.
I am still not convinced that if DD plays 55 games this year he will have the same .916 save %, or that he would have last year.
Ducey: I think you're missing the point.
ReplyDeleteOptimistic Friday afternoon thought:
ReplyDeleteIt's all well and good to talk about how bad next season might still be, but once in a while we should all make sure to step back and allow ourselves to get excited about the Hall-RNH-Eberle line that we're eventually going to get treated to in this town.
There's a real chance for it to be generationally awesome, and may well end up being the key component of the 2014 Canadian Olympic team.
Should be fun to watch.
Rich,
ReplyDeleteNear the end of the season when DD was playing more, Renney or Tambo said that DD had already reached his quota of games for the year.
It is obvious that the mgmt team sat down at the start of the year and was very diligent in setting the games played for DD.
Obviously it didn't consider Khabi's injury and bad play, but it was a conscious decision.
Cogliano is an RFA and is (supposedly) going to arbitration.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: Can he be traded now? (before his hearing) and what are the chances of that?
What if they agree on a number, say 1.6M, is it not possible he could then be traded for that coveted veteran D the Oilers need? (along with something else of course)
Just wondering.
By all acounts Lander seems like a keeper. Omark too. oh, and Hartikanen. Truth is, I'd get rid of cogs way before any of these other players.
JDD is signed by the Ducks.
ReplyDelete2 Way contract for the 1st year.
1 way contract for the 2nd year.
(Didn't knew you could do that)
Helene Elliot with more Fraser:
ReplyDeleteKings GM Dean Lombardi says club will "look at our legal avenues" regarding Colin Fraser's injuries and inability to play following trade
Lombardi says Oilers told him Fraser would be cleared to play after foot fracture but Kings' docs found fracture, cyst and blood disorder
Says Fraser needs surgery. 'he's not anywhere near being cleared to play according to our doctors and in fact is going to need surgery. more
this came after Kings determined Brule wasn't procedurally cleared to play and took Fraser instead. says cyst, blood disorder not disclosed
more lombardi: "The bottom line for me, I would have rather invested my money with Bernie Madoff than invest in Edmonton's word."
verification word: trambi
First thing's first: that's an expensive bad team, no?
ReplyDeleteYeah, i know Souray's soon coming off the books and 94's pact is in it's last year but Jesus Christ the Oilers are running a neon-light poorhouse.
There are two points here that stand out to me:
1. Tambo never does anything in a rash manner so while I'm inclined to think he won't pull a trigger on a deal for a real D, you might also believe he'll take his time doing it.
2. 94 fell into his lap and Belanger's skills were something everyone could see we needed but that doesn't necessarily mean they're going all the way to try and win. The Barker signing looks like a deal where they're gonna give him top four TOI or a big role just hoping they'll find a diamond in the rough. It could very well be that the vets were just brought in to help the kids along and not as a harbinger of truly working to compete.
Colorado? Lost Best Puckmoving D, brought in ??? Goalie. Kids another year better. Maybe be weaker, but goalies are like black magic...
ReplyDeleteAlso brought in a shutdown D in Hejda.
By the time Renney leans over to talk to Theo Peckham the other team will avoid the puck like it's the strip club their sister dances at.
I'm totally stealing that simile some day.