Tobias Rieder is from Landshut, Germany. He's an undersized center/winger (ISS lists him at "forward") with terrific skill and plays the game with intelligence. Those words--skill, intelligence, speed--are hot button items for the Edmonton Oilers scouting department. There might be a slight hitch in one area the Oilers covet--speed--as Redline suggests he lacks an explosive first step.
That's probably the reason a quality offensive prospect like Rieder fell on draft day. Redline had him as a late 2nd rounder, ISS had him as a mid-3rd rounder (and described him as having "excellent speed"--some disconnect in the scouting reports here), but Rieder lasted until late in the 4th round, 114th overall. Edmonton has had a lot of success in that draft zone over the years. Outstanding G prospect Tyler Bunz was plucked #121 a year ago; Liam Reddox went #112 in 2004; Jason Chimera #121 in 1997; Miro Satan #111 in 1993; Steve Smith #111 in 1981.
Rieder was taken deep in the draft, so it's important that we temper expectations. Despite playing in the top prospects game, having impressive skills and performing well with Kitchener in the tough OHL (65, 23-26-49 35), the success rate for 4th rd selections dictates that Rieder is extremely likely to play fewer NHL games in his career than Liam Reddox. It's quite possible that Rieder never plays in the NHL.
Christopher Boucher is an interesting young man with a fascinating system that he applied to Rieder for a game during this past OHL season. His description of Rieder as "an undersized, but quick skater who wins puck-battles with speed and a good stick, rather than size and strength" is very encouraging. He also describes Rieder as the winner of many puck battles during said game.
Rieder was listed at 5.10, 173 or 5.10.25, 169 depending on which service you read leading up to the draft. Rieder's stats and scouting report are a nice comp for a WHL forward who is now emerging as an NHL player:
- Tobias Rieder (OHL) 65, 23-26-49 (.754)
- Dana Tyrell (WHL) 72, 30-26-56 (.777)
The 2011 entry draft was very similar to 2002. That year, scouts told us that you could get a better player at 50 than you drafted at 20. The Oilers draft list that season (Niinimaki in the first round, and then JDD, Stoll and Matt Greene in round two) reflected it, and we should be prepared for that kind of outcome from this year's Oilers draft list.
Rieder is a candidate to surprise. He doesn't project as an offensive difference maker, but (as always seems the way) Stu MacGregor's selection of this player is typical in that he:
- has a nice range of skills.
- displays intelligence.
- has an aggressive style.
- was taken by the Oilers in a slot that would not be considered a reach selection.
I was surprised he was still available. He is probably a more legit prospect than Ewanyk taken 40 picks earlier. I though he was a 3rd rounder for sure.
ReplyDeleteThe 2011 entry draft was very similar to 2002. That year, scouts told us that you could get a better player at 50 than you drafted at 20. The Oilers draft list that season (Niinimaki in the first round, and then JDD, Stoll and Matt Greene in round two) reflected it, and we should be prepared for that kind of outcome from this year's Oilers draft list.
ReplyDeleteSo you're saying that one of our early picks (RNH/Klefbom/Musil) may not pan out in favor of a Rieder/Simpson/Ewanyk/Gernat/Tuohimaa boomlet? That'd be pretty wild.
Absolutely. That isn't so uncommon, though. Curtis Hamilton is tracking better than Tyler Pitlick from last season, as an example.
ReplyDelete2011 though was unusual in that after the top 9 or so it was all over the map until 50 (according to scouts).
And even after that it was crazy. Redline had Rieder at #48 overall.
You're definitely right about that -- I just wonder who the gems will be. You can certainly say, already, that guys like Brandon Davidson and Jeremie Blain, for example, tracked above expectations last season. (Which is not to say that either of them will ever be NHLers -- just that they're covering the bet, and then some, at this point.) I'm dying to find out which of these kids is the diamond in the rough that'll cause heads to turn next year or beyond.
ReplyDeleteIn a way, we're living in exciting times.
So, LT, just out of curiosity... and not that I'm sour on Pitlick (though I do think his WHL debut was somewhat below what many had hoped for)... if you could re-draft 2010, who would you take at #31? (Assuming #1-30 stayed the same and we could hit the reset button from that point forward.)
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think we've already seen a lot of movement from 2010's draft. The top 5 picks in order were:
ReplyDelete1. Hall
2. Pitlick
3. Marincin
4. Hamilton
5. Martindale
A year later, I'd rank them:
1. Hall
2. Hamilton
3. Marincin
4. Bunz
5. Pitlick
And it'll change some more by this time next season.
Of the second tier (beyond RNH, Klefbom and Musil) Rieder is the guy I think has the best chance to make it.
James L: I'd have to look at it, but one guy that really impressed this season was Max Reinhart.
ReplyDeleteLT: The real credit to that list is that all 5 are trending quite well. Pitlick might be in 5th place (by your estimation at least) but he still looks like he could wind up with a good NHL career if he continues to progress.
ReplyDeleteGreat draft.
Another Rajala.
ReplyDeleteLT: His chance of putting up offense in the NHL are abysmal, in the 1% range.
ReplyDeleteSo if he's nasty enough he could fit in as a 3rd-4th liner with some hands.
A guy like Halpern or Reddox.
That's why I prefer late european picks. It seems the offensive production is much less important in the development of future offense, and there's some teams who are sketchy in their prospect handling (Especially some european teams who will refuse to play some players on the NTL team like Alexander Avstyn).
So I think the likeliness of getting a top prospect is much higher with euro's / undrafteds.
I disagree. These numbers (1% chance) are a guideline but there are all kinds of things that we can't see. This player started very well in Kitcher (21 points in 15 games, something like that) but then faded and then ended up playing a depth role on the Rangers when they picked up D'Amigo.
ReplyDeleteSo, we can guess that he won't be an offensive player, but it's also true that if the other aspects of his game develop Rieder could have a career as a 2-way player.
Lots of room to grow.
LT: Well that's what I said.
ReplyDeleteHe could well be a 2-way bottom 6 player. There's enough offense for that.
All I'm saying is that
A: I like to bat for HR's in the draft, since I think it's easy enough to get bottom 6 players otherwise.
B: Players with low CHL offense have abysmal rates for that
C: If you want to bat HR's, overagers and unscouted euros seem to groom more of these guys (High risk, high reward)
It'S just a preference of mine when it comes to drafting.
Rieder still has a very legitimate chance at being a useful nhl player.
Well I'm saying that I'd rather have this player than Rob Schremp.
ReplyDeleteLT: Hah! Well not all of them are Robbie's.
ReplyDeleteThere's Kostitsyn's and Avstyn's and such.
We just have different views on drafting. And that's just fine.
Well, as I understand your post the best late picks are guys who Euro teams hide.
ReplyDeleteOiler fans went that direction with Traktor Boy.
LT: Well you draft Traktor boy in the 5th round. Not with your top 20 pick =).
ReplyDeleteThat or guys who put up scoring but with fixable issues.
FPB: If could drive back to 2000 I'd tell KP. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: Mexico's a long way from here.
ReplyDelete(Or was it the other guy?)
Anyway you'd probably enter the house and see pictures of lumberjacks and firemen everywhere.
lol. Barry Fraser was the sombrero, Prendergast was the tobacco rep of the year.
ReplyDeleteHah! Prendergast' era just makes me think of a quote from an (I believe) Oakland As' manager toward people who highly valued athletics in baseball.
ReplyDeleteWhen he heard scouts say player X has a great body he raged, and then said ''It's baseball players, not models god dammit''.
I think pitlick is tracking fine, he just had the misfortune of being injured and getting snubbed by USA hockey.
ReplyDeleteI think if they want Pitlick to play center, they'd be wise to put him in OKC and start procuring him there. The depth chart tells us its pretty damn thing on RH centers.
The only problem with having Pitlick at center is he's is a demon on the forecheck, a la Mike Grier. So him playing center would hinder that. The Oilers are going to have to pick a position for him and allow him to get some ABs.
LT, I think Rieder reminds me of another player, and he was drafted by the Oilers in the 4th round (97th overall) of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft. If Rieder turns out to be Linus Omark wouldn't that be something special. :-)
ReplyDeleteRieder is a good little player who enjoyed a solid first season in Canada and in the OHL after playing in Germany. I think it is harder to jump from Germany to the CHL than Finland or Sweden, just because the hockey in Germany is not as strong as the other European countries.
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ReplyDeleteOn the subject of mid-round draft picks:
ReplyDeletePerhaps this is old news, but it looks like Hesketh has been let go by the Oilers and re-entered the draft this year with no takers.
Is that officially the first Stu MacGregor Bust?
Maverick: He was 0,5 PPG in Germany's 2nd league.
ReplyDeleteOmark was scoring well as an overager in sweden.
Actually if you compare the points and leagues and talent surrounding the two players it really isn't that far fetched idea that Linus Omark and Tobias Rieder are similar. I think Rieder will turn out more like Omark then Reddox.
ReplyDeleteLinus Omark
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=4008&lang=en
Tobias Rieder
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=34851
If Hamilton hadn't had all the broken collar bones and shoulders he would have been a late first rounder or we would have taken him where we took Pitlick.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm not surprised he's tracked well.
And then Marincin should've been drafted in the first, Pitlick too. Most drafts, I think though are a little wishy washy from 25-50.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler said Another Rajala
ReplyDeleteRajala seems to be a prospect that doesn't get much love around the Oilogosphere, and I'm not exactly sure why. He had a solid season in the WHL after his draft year, and has posted two very good seasons in the SM-Liga as a 17 and 19 y/o. This was a bit of info I posted at C&B a while back, and I think it's very indicative of a real skill set that the kid possesses:
The SML tracks a Fenwick-style shot metric (shots on goal + missed shots) instead of traditional shots on goal. Converted into a rate stat (shots/min), Rajala is generating .329 shots/min, the most on his team and 9th most in the league. This number is no aberration either, in his 08-09 SML rookie season, he posted .277 s/min, good enough for 2nd on his team and 15th in the league. The troublesome issue is that his shooting % also remained stable (4.1% in 08-09, 4.3% in 10-11).
It will be interesting to see if Rajala remains in Finland next season or makes the jump to OKC.
Another Rajala in that he's another flyer pick with a ton of upside. Smaller skilled guy taken with a later pick where you can swing for the fences a bit.
ReplyDeleteAnd agreed Rajala has done well so far and still might make it yet.
And then Marincin should've been drafted in the first, Pitlick too. Most drafts, I think though are a little wishy washy from 25-50.
ReplyDeleteOn a do over sure with Marincin and maybe Pitlick.
What I meant was Hamilton had been bandied about as a potential first rounder prior to his draft year. Only injuries kept him from getting there. His followup proved his abilities.