Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Draft Week 2010 Post #7: Two More Sleeps
















We've been waiting for clues about which player Edmonton will take Friday night with the first overall pick. We may have lucked into a clue from Dan Tencer's twitter last night. Here are two tweets:

  • According to MacGregor, the Taylor/Tyler decision has absolutely been made and he and Steve Tambellini are in total agreement.
  • MacGregor says he stayed pretty true to the same way of thinking through the whole process...didn't get swayed back and forth between guys.

Those two statements lead me to believe Taylor Hall will be an Oiler Friday night. Hall was the clear #1 at the beginning of the season, made the WJ team, ripped off a 106 point season and tied for the league scoring title despite missing 11 OHL regular season games, and then ran roughshod over the post-season competition. His Memorial Cup G1 performance--in which he looked badly injured one shift and then scored a beauty goal the next--must have been icing on the cake.

We won't know until the name is announced, but Pat Quinn's slip and the MBS comments would seem to indicate Hall is the man.

Two more sleeps.

114 comments:

  1. Can't wait to see Hall, Eberle and MPS on the same team next season.

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  2. I think renney is better suited to have a rookie heavy lineup. Not sure if that's the best option for us as a team, but i think all 3 will start the year here, with Omark lurking. There are still moves to be made, so who knows what we will see for a lineup, but it seems reasonable to assume that renney (based on his past) will run a PVP line, a sheltered kid line and tough minutes checking line. Something that happened late last year when they started playing better. I wonder if this changes who leaves? Does this meean Souray is happier, and opts to stay? Tambellini made some comments yesterday that made me think he is only changing the bottom pairing and bottom 6 forwards, which makes me think he hopes Souray is happier and is ok with staying. Souray healthy and having a good year may be more valuable at the deadline then Souray disgruntled and coming off an injury this summer. And runnning a defined role checking line may mean the Captain is still here? or is definitely gone?

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  3. 2 more sleeps and we no longer have to listen to the endless question...."will they take Taylor or Tyler?"

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  4. 2 more sleeps and we no longer have to listen to the endless question...."will they take Taylor or Tyler?"

    We will have to listen to "Should they have taken Taylor or Tyler?"

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  5. Has anyone seen any recent commentaries on Toni Rajala? The most current I found was from the winter. I am hoping to read up on him post-Memorial Cup. I'm curious if he is back in Brandon, Finland for Military service, or qualifies for OKC next season.

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  6. We will have to listen to "Should they have taken Taylor or Tyler?"

    Considering that either choice is justifiable, people can go on record as saying "I'd have gone with the other guy" and leave it at that. Time may give them a quick "I told you so", but we'll have to look back 10 years from now and say, at the time, either route was a credible one.

    In other words, this is not 2003, where the Oilers' approach to their first round looked like a high probability of backfire from minute one.

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  7. The fact that Boston and Edmonton were talking earlier and then Boston made a trade after for a scoring winger.

    That makes me think that Tambi told Boston they're taking Hall. Boston moved on and grabbed Horton instead.

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  8. Will the Oilers really begin the season with Eberle, MPS, and Hall? That sounds exciting, but is it smart? I would expect that all three are top 6 forwards. Who moves to the third line? Horcoff?

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  9. If the Oilers take Hall, the LW position goes from a black hole, except 27, to a position of (future) strength with 27, Hall and MPS.

    Dallas has the best core of LW in the NHL now, but are weak at center (and young at D, meh in goal last year) and missed the playoffs.

    Dallas has moved Benn to C to try to shore up the C position. If they do pick Hall perhaps that experiment happens here. They also might try MPS at center if things turn out that way.

    Maybe they mend fences with Nash or VV blows the doors off...

    So much is still up in the air.

    Are we there yet?

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  10. Why would adding 3 wingers push a centerman down the depth chart?

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  11. What are the possible ramifications for Khabibulin with this possible DUI? Could the Oiler's terminate his contract if he's convicted and serves jail time? I have no idea if that would even be an option but what a stroke of luck that would be.

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  12. Misfit,

    Don't understand your question.

    Who is getting pushed down?

    If you need 3 quality centers, the Oilers currently have 10 and 89 and not much else that really jumps out. (And some don't even like those two)

    POS is still an enigma (I like him), Cogliano flounders and sounds like he's trade bait again, Brule is an option I guess.

    VV and Lander are projected at 3C, Nash is on the outs.

    I can't picture the Oiler's C depth 2 years from now being that good.

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  13. I am hoping to read up on him post-Memorial Cup. I'm curious if he is back in Brandon, Finland for Military service, or qualifies for OKC next season.

    He hasn't decided yet. I spoke with him last week and he will have a decision soon.

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  14. "Why would adding 3 wingers push a centerman down the depth chart?"

    Sorry, my mistake. I was thinking of the forwards as a group, not by position. Let me rephrase the question. The Oilers have at least 7 top forwards (if all 3 kids start the season in the NHL): Eberle, MPS, Hall, Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky, Gagner. Who is the odd man out?

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  15. God I hope not - Seguin represents a position that hasn't been one of strength for the Oilers for many years.

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  16. Interesting news from Dreger this morning (yesterday?). Says Boston may be willing to part w/Marc Savard.

    Since Savard is a center, it may well be that Tambellini and Chiraelli talked, Tambs gave them the impression they're leaning to Hall and so Boston pulls the trigger on Horton to get the winger they need. Now with a hole on the blueline, they do they trade Savard for Kaberle (Dreger's speculation).

    I'd be happy either way (Hall/Seguin). But the tea leaves are starting to read Hall.

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  17. Sorry, my mistake. I was thinking of the forwards as a group, not by position. Let me rephrase the question. The Oilers have at least 7 top forwards (if all 3 kids start the season in the NHL): Eberle, MPS, Hall, Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky, Gagner. Who is the odd man out?

    One or more of those rookies should be on the fourth line - worked for Hemsky.

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  18. ...or, in Hall/Seguin's case, junior.

    I think I'm done now.

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  19. If anyone is sent to OKC out of the tremendous trio it will be Eberle.

    Hall would have to be sent back to Windsor and I doubt that would happen. MPS has been playing against men for a few years and would probably need less protection than the other two.

    Omark can play either wing. I'm sure one of Nilsson or POS will still be around. Unless Brule is dealt, he would also have to be considered for a top 6 spot with the way he played with Penner last year.

    In any case. The top 6 could have many different looks and if something goes stale there looks to be a level of interchangeability there that the Oilers haven't had in the past.

    I mean you could really play Penner with anyone. Maybe MPS and Hall split time with Hemsky.

    I would probably start with something like....

    Hall/MPS-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Penner-Gagner-Brule/Eberle

    Hopefully the kids are ready and can contribute because it would seem that the Oilers have a ton of offensive depth(if everyone lives up to expectations).

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  20. If they do a PVP and a sheltered line what about these lines:

    Penner-Gagner-Hemsky
    MPS-Hall-Eberle
    Ladd?-Horcoff-Brule

    whoever you add to 3LW allows you to play the 3rd and the 1st against anyone, and shelter the kids.

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  21. Malard: first time on this site? Speculating is sort of what all these blogs are about. Who pooped in your corn flakes?

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  22. I've been more of a Seguin guy most of the way, but probably mostly due to how much some guys were writing him off as a viable choice at #1. Taking Seguin and picking up a nice piece from BOS would be a nice draft day IMO, but staying at #1 and walking away with Hall is pretty damn exciting too. Not even Kevin Lowe could screw this up. *knocks on wood*

    Now let's go get somewhere who will make Regehr eat his own teeth if he tries to put him through the boards. I don't like wasting a roster spot on a total goon, but it's not like we're cup contenders or anything. I'd like a bit of a loose cannon in that role, make things more exciting.

    Part of me also wants the Oilers to move up to the end of the 1st round, but mostly because it would make watching the draft more exciting. It's probably smarter to stay at #31 and #48 since picks #15-#40 seem pretty wide open. There could be some pretty nice options left at #31.

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  23. As said before about MPS, Eberle.

    Being the best player the Oilers have for a position does not equal being ready for the NHL.

    If rebuilding properly is really the agenda and not selling hope. Give each of these guys at least 20 games in the A and let them tear the cover off the ball (as LT says) to prove they belong.

    Hall should play in the A as well, but can't, so bring him to the show.

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  24. It was definitely odd to see Boston add another centre in Campbell if they're taking Seguin. Something has to give.

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  25. Does Souray have enough value to get Savard from the Bruins? Does he address a need for the Bruins?

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  26. Schitzo,

    Apparently Savard is being shopped.

    I agree that the players need to make the team, but ST said on McCown's show yesterday that there is a good chance they have 3 19 year olds in the line up.

    If there is no trades I could see something like this:

    27-10-83 (PvP)
    Hall-89-Omark (experienced rooks)
    MPS-13-67 (faaaast line)
    ?-78-46

    But I think there is a lot of movement before penciling in lines happens.

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  27. do we really want Savard here? does he even want to come here, or will he end up squaking his way out of here, a la Souray after one season? "i wanna go to a contender...."

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  28. My final thought on Taylor-Tyler. I still think they're pretty equal as prospects.

    But Taylor's speed and skating maybe goves him a slight edge. We know how valuable speed is at the NHL level, beating players to pucks, covering up for mistakes in positioning, stretches the defense, etc.

    I don't know if Seguin has that, and it will make it a little harder for him, as we've seen with Gagner. (Seguin will be better than Gagner, I suppose, but it's the same idea.)

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  29. Dug, I don't think anyone here has suggested we get Savard. What's the point?

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  30. Late to the party, so this is to yesterday's post, but,

    'Quinn not happy with move'
    is Jones's piece.

    Quinn not happy with move. I'm staggered - Tambellini is supposed to run a hockey club, but he's really being measured by the Happiness Level of his Previous coach?? I think That would be the measure of bush league, not the sacking of a guy who you didn't think was the right option going forward. Summer 2009 Quinn was there to repair a supposedly under-performing but not at the time believed to be that under-built team. In 2010, out of 29th by a country mile we're in rebuild, which is not a 1-2 year effort. Firing Quinn isn't about blaming him for last season, it's about making decisions for the future. You don't manage to fix or accomodate the past, it's not relevant. Quinn's unhappy, and I'd probably be too. But in the professional sports racket that's always going to be the way, and if the team progresses and as LT says the cheques still cash, what the hell else is Tambo supposed to provide?

    A lot of bullshit over a non-event.

    Hall the wrecking-ball, now that's gonna be something. You won't be able to wipe the smiles off the Oilogosphere Friday night.

    Btw, I start a new job Monday, and I think the first thing I'm going to do is get lowetide.blogspot.com blocked by the firewall. Seriously.

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  31. @oilerdago

    I agree. It looks like Boston is lining up for Seguin rather than Hall - although it seems strange to think they would try and make a cup run without and experienced #1C like Savard.

    ~Maybe the Bruins will give us something to take Hall~

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  32. WG: Probably Jones on that 4th line.

    I'd put Nilsson in and Cogliano out tought =).

    (Tehcaptainethanmoreau?)

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  33. "Why would adding 3 wingers push a centerman down the depth chart?"

    Im under the impression that the Oilers would like Hall to play center. Which is a position that he has played before.

    With that said having three young rookies in the lineup isnt a bad thing. That is as long as they are used proper.

    Plus picking up a player like Andrew Ladd would help big time and maybe signing a 4th line center like Konopka would fill out the team nicely and give us some real grit.

    MPS/Gagner/Hemsky
    Penner/Hall/Eberle
    Ladd/Horcoff/Brule
    Jones/Konopka/Stortini

    Extras - Potulny & Pouliot

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  34. I do worry about Hall being somewhat like Erik Cole in his playing style. I hope he can find someone on this team to play with. It could be a huge problem as Hemsky and Cole were not a very good fit.

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  35. Here's my hunch for next year

    The Triple H line

    Hall-horcs-hemmer

    Horcoff can be more defensive minded letting Hall and hemsky create.

    Penner-Gags-Eberle

    LW(FA or Moreau)-Brule-Cogs

    4th TBD

    I fell like MPS and Omark are gonna need some time to adjust to the ice surface and start in the AHL...


    This could change as more moves could be coming....

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  36. I still think Seguin's the guy.

    Seguin could have been the choice initially, and they weren't swayed by Hall's Memorial Cup.

    Regardless, I wouldn't be upset in the least if Hall is the pick.

    Win-win.

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  37. Boston doesn't have a hole on D. After the Seidenberg signing and the Wideman trade they now have room for Boychuk.

    I agree LT, after recent comments it sounds like we're taking Hall. He should be real fun to watch. I don't mind playing him at C on the PP for the first bit, while he does some on the job learning, but eventually mobving him to centre away from cruching hits along the wall is a good idea.

    Ribs, Hall doesn't remind me that much of Cole. His game is far more multi-dimensional -- taking and giving passes, one timing shots from a static position, and he has sick moves Cole can only dream about.

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  38. Late to reply from yesterday re: Tambellini needing defending.

    So he essentially fires Quinn now instead of right after the season. What difference does it make to the organization? The only time off the guys runnning this show including Steve get is after the season/playoffs are over. The summer is total chaos. So he took vacation first. He comes back, considers the options at the coaching position and new direction of the team compared to last offseason and decides to make a change. Seems like a guy who is working methodically rather than taking a slap-dash approach to rebuilding this franchise.

    I also think it is easy to jump on Steve because he is somewhat awkward during media interviews and on camera. I don't think we can make the leap of logic that he lacks the skills, fortitude, and finesse to steer the Oilers ship because of this public appearance.

    I think we need to keep in mind that we only see one side of the GM's efforts, the action side. When there is no action, the tendency has been to assume nothing is happening. I can tell you from discussion with someone close to the organization that there is a lot of action right now. Discussions with Chairelli have been extensive, and perhaps ongoing. There is an unwritten rule in the GM world regarding potential deals. No one is supposed to reveal what another GM offered in a failed deal, and there are many. Some of the most important decisions a GM makes are ones when they decide to do nothing...to walk away when the deal doesn't looks like it will add value to your organization. Chiarelli is a slick dealer. He has taken Burke and Tallon to the cleaners inside of 12 months, so we can all imagine what was on the table to Steve. How would we feel if Hemsky is a Bruin today and all we had was a second pairing defenseman and pick #15 to show for it?

    Doing nothing when every interested party around you wants you to "do something" is no easy task. This rebuild doesn't require blockbuster trades every draft week/draft deadline. It needs time and patience.

    Let's give this guy a chance. We can fill out his report card mid decade when we will hopefully be competing for Stanley again.

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  39. It's the other possible personnel moves come draft day that have me excited.

    We've known all along we're getting the 1st overall and a damn good player, whichever one it is. But the other moves, if made, are the great unknown.

    Will Souray or Moreau or Cogliano or Nash get dealt? Will it be someone we're not thinking about? Will the Oilers chase Phoenix's 2nd first-rounder?

    Will we get a 2RW or a 3D?

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  40. Brule is an option I guess.
    Of the forwards in the league who had 250 faceoffs (3/GM) or more. we only had one forward in the top 50. Gilbert at #42 52.6%


    Give each of these guys at least 20 games in the A and let them tear the cover off the ball (as LT says) to prove they belong.

    Eberle in the AHL (springfeild):
    20GM 9G 14A 1.15PPG
    09-10: (19Y)
    11GM 6G 8A 1.28PPG

    MPS in Sweden converted to AHL:
    (SEL .78/AHL .44) = 1.77
    49GM (12g x 1.77 = 21G) (17A x 1.77 = 30A) 1.05PPG

    Top 50 scorers in the AHL last year better than 1.0PPG
    Rank PLY (AGE) {Points} [PPG]
    #1 K. Aucoin (32) {106} [1.47]
    #2 A. Giroux (28) {103} [1.49]
    #3 C. Locke (25) {85} [1.12]
    #4 J. Samson (22) {78} [1.05]
    #5 D. Desharnais (23) {78} [1.30]
    #14 C. Bourque (23) {70} [1.42]
    #15 T.J.hensick (25) {70} [1.20]
    #29 M. Santorelli (25) {59} [1.03]
    #36 B. Sterling (25) {56} [1.02]
    #50 L. Couture (20) {53} [1.26]

    HMM!
    Eberle would be 4th in the league based on his late season PPG rate in AHL.

    MPS 8th as an 18 year old. though the World championship allstar team was not bad!


    Who moves to the third line? Horcoff?

    Hall, Gagner, Hemsky, MPS, Horcoff, Eberle, Penner, Brule, and Omark.

    What is the first and second line?

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  41. Rickibear,

    No question that Brule can take a faceoff, but his defensive play on the wing is bad, and as a center is a disaster.

    If Renney is a good teaching coach it should help.

    If he's 3C it should be the most sheltered line and have some good help on the wing.

    spOILer,

    Agreed. A bunch of the other questions should get answered Saturday, then the balance in early July. Exciting stuff!

    Also,

    If its Hall, then 1PP should be:

    Hall-27-83

    2PP MPS-89-Eberle/67

    Don't kill 10 by having him play PP as well as PK and tough minutes.

    27 can take a faceoff well enough to center the PP then put his big ass in front of the net, and have Hall as the trigger man.....just a shot from the point to go with that and I'm not sure Whitney has that shot, and I know Gilbert doesn't.

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  42. Given what FLA took for Horton I find myself wondering what it would take to get Weiss.

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  43. Here's a problem:

    How good should the Oilers try to be next season?

    They have some cap room and could afford to dump a pick or a prospect. But that costs the future to benefit the present.

    But, I don't know if a total tank job again is good for the team, e.g. player development, free agent appeal, the pending arena project, etc.

    Obviously, the team needs to dump Moreau, Jacques, POS, and to add tough minutes forwards and PK'ers and at least one more solid D-man.

    But those moves could keep us in contention for a playoff spot, especially if we stay healthy and ride some luck, (still more likely to finish like 11th or 12th in the west) and away from a top pick.

    Tough call. It depends on how much faith you have in Penner, Hemsky, Horcoff, Gilbert, Whitney, and -sadly- Khabi. If they are a solid core, then it's worth it to surround them with talented kids and effective vets. If not, you tank again and maybe even move some of the core for younger players.

    I really don't know what I'd do. I'm betting Tamb. goes for wins now and if the team flounders, he trades parts of the core for the tank job.

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  44. Just get Horcoff off the PP and put him as a defensive and EV specialist.

    Put

    Penner, Gagner, Hall/Seguin, Brule, Hemsky, MPS/Omark on the PP.

    Let the kids have some candy.

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  45. Ashley,

    I like the tone of your post and I can certainly respect the argument. However, I think you're missing a couple key issues - he hired Quinn in the first place for this team and he signed Khabibulin to an incredibly silly deal. Those are bad indicators.

    Now let's face it - GMs place bets and they don't all work. However, Tambo hasn't had the gig long and pretty much hasn't placed a successful bet yet. These facts may not automatically make him a poor GM, but he's got zero evidence to this point that would suggest he's any good.

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  46. I'll say it now so it doesn't sound like sour grapes following the draft “pick”... I love all the history of the Oilers and all the great players past, but I believe it would be best for the entire organization if all the old Oilers left and any remnant of their handy-work left as well. Speaking from a business growth perspective, if you look back to the early 80’s, the group running the show were young aggressive risk takers willing to face uncertainty and adversity, and take chances. They signed, drafted and moved players in and out using this approach and experienced the organizational success that comes with a growth orientated risk taking approach.

    Even though this entrenched group of today, talk about going back to the basics, the Chicago Model, or what ever other label you want to put on it, you have a group of individuals here who have no familiarity, no tendency, and no understanding for the new growth orientated, risk taking approach that’s needed to once again find the success that awaits those who do.

    All we have in this organization is a core group of managers who have learned how to manage based on the assumptions of past organizational models and their successes, guessing. Tambelini is useless as a GM and proves it in every move he makes or attempts to make. It’s a guessing game to him, a crap shoot or which way is the wind blowing today approach. I see no real logic or strategy.

    Now, more to the point of my comment… Drafting Taylor Hall, although he will most likely be a good player on any team, is/or will be another crap shoot of trying and win it all approach for a team that keeps promoting that their going to take it slow and build a core.

    Taking Hall is not a risk, and shows none of the patience needed in developing a core. He represents a lets get it quick mentality. How much would one like to bet Hall, Eberle, and MPS play for the big club this fall?

    Drafting Seguin is more of the risk taking approach, shows patience in letting him play one more year in Major Junior (or should I say tear it up) while other key components of the future, like Eberle and MPS develop in the AHL for a year.

    The Bruins may have to wait one year for Seguin but they’ll have a combination capacity player like Samsonov, Peca and Yzerman all in one. Lucky them!

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  47. but his defensive play on the wing is bad, and as a center is a disaster.

    I trust your opinion.

    But post olympics when they started line matching he did not seem over his head.

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  48. Re: How good do the Oilers want to be next season?

    I think the answer is easy - as good as they can without hurting the future. The team is rebuilding, but that doesn't mean they need to be intentionally bad to get draft picks. Sign some quality veterans to protect the kids, put together a decent hockey team, and try to win some games. I don't know of any team that has the mindset that they want to lose for a few seasons before they are good. Sure, some teams were consistently bad and then got better as a result but I don't know that they do it on purpose.

    Re: Anonymous

    I love over-the-top Hall vs Seguin statements that picking one over the other is a sign the team is run by morons stuck in the Oiler glory days who aren't committed to a "true" rebuild.

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  49. checking line: horcoff,brule,jones...all have skill,brule is a torpedo,horcoff the two way center,jones is winger with some skill & size...horcoff can still get pp time & pk time.these guys are all capable of 40 points from the checking line & they will get lots of icetime vs opposing top forwards.that will take some pressure off horcoff & the young guns.

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  50. RiversQ

    Isn't it a bit premature to say that none of Tambellini's moves have succeeded? Would you really say that all of the following are failed bets:

    - keeping Stu Macgregor
    - bringing Renney into the organisation
    - turning a third string goalie into Stone
    - turning Vish into a younger, cheaper, bigger offensive Dman
    - getting a 2nd round pick for a player they weren't going to qualify, and not taking any salary back
    - dumping Staios and somehow how getting a 3rd round pick
    - ending the deal with Springfield and setting up a new AHL franchise
    - putting a formal player development system in place
    - putting that online video system that Staples has been writing about in place

    These are all bets made by Tambellini and while it's too early to say that they've been successful, it seems way too early to me to deem them all to be failures.

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  51. Kris: Seguin and Hall's skating speed.

    Hall is a sublime skater, certainly the fastest amongst North American skaters, probably the fastest in the draft and yes speed matters at the NHL level. However, Seguin has NHL plus speed. He is an elite skater and in a normal draft year people would be talking about him being a bigger than average centre with blazing speed. So it is all relative. Hall belongs in the MPS and Cogs class. Seguin would be at home with Horcoff and Hemsky. Neither guy is going to make us slower overall.

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  52. I was in the Squin camp, but now am officially on-the-fence due to the fact that Hall is #1 on everyone's list except CSS.

    I found this bit from 2008 on Doughty and Bogosian and I think it is apt:
    Ready Now vs. Higher Upside

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  53. Joe Strong,

    Love your checking line, Jones Horcoff Brule. They would put up some points. However, and it is a big however, Jones has the reputation for being a crash the net forechecker with a hard edge and the ability to score garbage goals. He has had some problems making the transition to NHL hockey because they keep trying to make him into a defence first guy who grinds when the opportunity presents itself and defence isn't his thing. Brule is only now learning to dominate in the offensive end and he is still slightly behind at the defensive end. If Renney wanted to change how the third line is going to be deployed and use these three guys offensive prowess to keep the other team honest rather than to play like Marchant and Buchberger then then they might work well together. Otherwise I think you are simply once again fitting round pegs into square holes.

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  54. Anon.

    /Taking Hall is not a risk, and shows none of the patience needed in developing a core. He represents a lets get it quick mentality./

    On its face this is a ridiculous comment, because somewhere it Assumes that Seguin is still the better player. That because Hall might be better in the short term he is by necessity worse in the long-term. That more risk is somehow > less risk, all else being equal.
    Show me that Seguin is a better prospect than Hall, I might believe it or I might not. But Seguin's not better just because Hall's further along. That's just addled thinking, unless you're party to better reasons you don't want to divulge.

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  55. Maybe I'm just projecting here because I'm hoping the Oilers take the centre but why would Tambo let Bos know who he's planning to pick? How does that benefit him?

    To be honest my Bruins buddy texted me about the Horton trade and had the same idea that the B's picked up another winger because the Oilers told Bos they were taking Hall but I don't know why Edm would do that.

    Also, I like the guy's opinion that the Oilers were always about Seguin and Hall's MC performance didn't sway them and that's what they meant by holding true to initial thoughts.

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  56. Well if you don't anticipate Boston offering you anything to take Hall and pass on Seguin, then of course you tell them you're taking Hall. And maybe they try to sway you with something, but they at least know that they'll have to try, that Hall won't fall in their lap.

    Seems to be on game plan, no?

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  57. I agree with you Ashley. Too much is made of Tambellini's on-camera awkwardness and what that must mean in other areas of his job.

    A GM should act slowly and methodically to build the team. Given what he inherited, I'd say the team and org are much better off today then when he was hired. It doesn't say Tambellini is some world-beater GM, but it also doesn't look like the sky is falling.

    So question the decisions, disagree with the methodology, but stop trying to make him seem incompetent at every turn for any inane reason.

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  58. Should we not expect Souray to move until after all the UFA's have been signed? aybe Souray can be moved to someone who wanted but didn't get a UFA defenceman.

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  59. Ashley, nicely put.

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  60. LT,

    I've been wondering if the Renney ascension/Quinn replacement might be a tell here as well—but in favour of Seguin.

    Quinn (apparently a Hall man) pushed aside and the guy all about structured defense made head coach before we draft the defensively-better, cerebral player.

    Admittedly, Quinn emphasized defense strongly too, but my sense is Quinn likes a more wide-open, less structured game but wants players to be conservative within that free flow. Renney prefers a heavily-structured game and needs someone clever enough to make things happen within that structure. It strikes me as what Seguin is reportedly good at.

    I don't follow hockey, particularly the management machinations well enough to have an opinion on this. Hence, I'm interested to hear what you and others think.

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  61. Should we not expect Souray to move until after all the UFA's have been signed? aybe Souray can be moved to someone who wanted but didn't get a UFA defenceman.

    I've thought the same thing kris-if you're standing there with $5M in your hands and a multi year offer and Volchenkov and Hamhuis and the rest of the Tier 1 D are gone,suddenly Souray and his 2 years and $9m owing doesn't look that bad.
    You might not get much(if anything),but I'd be thrilled if we didn't have to take big salary/bad player back.

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  62. RiversQ,

    Fair enough, but the absence of evidence demonstrating Tambellini as a good GM does not necessarily support the contrary opinion, especially when the information made available to us is limited. It's like trying to decide of da Vinci did a good job on the Mona Lisa by only looking at the right upper quadrant.

    He hired Quinn which suited the team at the time, but no longer does so he makes a change. You see a mistake, I see a guy adjusting to an altered landscape. We disagree on Khabibulin. I think that was a reasonable move, although the contract is too long. Tambellini knows that too, but needed to offer term to entice the talented Russian to the fair city of Edmonton. He would have gladly chosen one of the interested sunbelt destinations if they had only offered him a contract for more than 2 years. The table is slanted in free agency, and sadly not toward Edmonton. Finishing 30th and having one of your locker room leaders rip the management in the offseason hasn't helped our cause any moreso come July 1 this year.

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  63. Not to mention that 44's NTC runs out July.

    Cap up to 59.4M, so that will help some teams take on his contract, especially since he's being paid 4.5 with a 5.6 cap hit (might be 5.4 cap)

    ST should give Tallon a call, he might need help hitting the cap floor (44M I think)

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  64. The cap going up by 2.7 million has to make trading souray easier.

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  65. Huge deal.

    to ATL:
    Byfuglien, Sopel & Eager

    to CHI:
    NJ's 1st & 2nd, Reasoner & Morin

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  66. Ashley,

    Weren't the Oilers the one and only bid for Khabby? I'm going off memory so I could be wrong. But it does seem to me that we signed him 2 hours after FA started, that all the Southern teams already had goalies, and that some UFA tenders like Biron, withered on the vine for weeks. If the Oil weren't the only bid, I'd have difficulty believing that it was a pressure signing, or that Khabby was in a position to demand 4 years given the market, unless management was solely focused on signing him and no other guy. Which is some kinda great negotiating.

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  67. Some may have already seen this Red Line item from mid-February:

    “A rare Monday afternoon game between Windsor and Plymouth the day before the Prospects festivities got underway …. drew virtually the entire NHL scouting community. And watching the head-to-head-to-head matchup between Windsor's Taylor Hall … and Plymouth's Tyler Seguin was quite revealing.
    First off, on a day when all the participants obviously knew that half the audience were scouts, Seguin clearly outplayed Hall at the offensive end all day, playing the game at top speed every shift and creating a lot of chances. Seguin also opened the scoring with a great backhand goal on the fly to get his team rolling on the way to an easy win.”

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  68. Via Kevin Allen, USA Today.

    TSN has Aliu going to ATL as well. They also say it's "pending a trade call."

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  69. The lack of due diligence in the Khabby signing can't possibly be considered a feather in Tambo's cap, and neither can the term and the dollars of the contract, even if he was in perfect health. That's two strikes, just on one signing.

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  70. Byfuglien, along with Brent Sopel, Ben Eager and Akim Aliu, will be headed to Atlanta in exchange for the 24th overall pick at the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, the 54th pick, Marty Reasoner and Jeremy Morin.

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  71. to ATL:
    Byfuglien, Sopel & Eager

    to CHI:
    NJ's 1st & 2nd, Reasoner & Morin


    Wow, horrible deal for ATL. Byfuglien is not as good as he is being hyped for his playoff run. Guy is in Pisani, Malone territory right now. Sopel has to have negative value and Eager can't be worth much.

    Morin had a good rookie season in the OHL this year too.

    Brutal.

    NOTE: Akim Aliu is also going to Atlanta. Bad year for him with some time in the ECHL and poor AHL stats.

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  72. Bowman wins that one in a walk

    Wouldn't have minded seeing Eager on 4LW here.

    Marty Sakic might win a cup. Good replacement for Madden.

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  73. you guys really didn't think Buff was coming here did you? i didn't.

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  74. Pretty unlikely the Hawks repeat with the dismantling they are doing.

    Anyone done the math? How much does this trade help them? How much more do they have to do?

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  75. What does that save Chicago? 6 million minus the money to get replacements. PLus if they bury Huet that's over 11 million. Is that enough?

    Not bad. Probably also means that Bowman could find no takers for Campbell at all which is no surprise.

    I don't have the link here but the Chicago Gay Pride parade is this weekend I believe. The organizers asked the Hawks if they would bring the Cup, not thinking in a million years that they would. The Hawks agreed and Sopel and his family are going to represent the team (hopefully still will). The quotes from Sopel show that he is really a class guy. Good to see that he won the Cup.

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  76. Deano - do you think? If they need to they can replace Sopel at the deadline with a cheap vet. Eager is replaceable. The only wildcard is Byfuglien and they have Brouwer who scored 22 goals this year.

    If they stay healthy then they are still the favourites imo. They're all going to be a year older. SJ is probably saying goodbye to Marleau, Lidstrom is a year older.

    I'd lay money on them.

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  77. LOL@this

    BDHS:
    Mirtle sez they cleared just shy of 5-mil. Still some threshing to be done, IMO.

    Glad to hear that about Sopel. I'm sure he'll honour his engaygement (sp?).

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  78. Wow, horrible deal for ATL. Byfuglien is not as good as he is being hyped for his playoff run. Guy is in Pisani, Malone territory right now. Sopel has to have negative value and Eager can't be worth much.

    Its not like Atlanta gave up anything of value. 24th overall doesn't have a great chance of being any better then Byfuglien, and the rest was spare parts.

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  79. Byfuglien - 3.0M RFA 2011
    Sopel - 2.33M UFA 2011
    Eager - RFA made 1.0M 2010

    Sakic - 1.15M UFA 2011

    Net Chicago -5.18 (assuming Eager signs for similar number)

    Chicago now has 13 players signed as 52.4M with a cap of 59.4.

    7M left

    Bury Huet's 5.625 (expires 2012), and they should have room.

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  80. Byfuglien is this season's Lucic.

    Big guy, can skate, good at cleaning up the garbage in front of the net and coming out of the corners with the puck, a decent player when playing with 2 very good players, but couldn't carry a line on his own.

    Probably closer to actual value at 3.0 than Lucic's 4M, but he'll probably get a raise after next year.

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  81. Would anyone here, if they were Oiler GM, offer to "do Chicago a favor" and send them Khabibulin for Huet straight across?

    Not sayin', just sayin'....

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  82. Good for Reasoner, a great opportunity for a great guy...traded out of hockey obscurity to the defending champion. We'll actually be able to see him on TV next year.

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  83. Hawks save approx. $4.2M, plus whatever the cap hit of a resigned Eager is.

    It seems like a pretty fair deal actually. Atlanta gets the best player, and three actual NHL players, which that roster needed. They gave up one NHL player, a couple of picks and swapped their third best prospect for Chicago's fourth best.

    Chicago gets some much needed cap space, doesn't give up any of their core, picks up a useful vet and gets a couple more picks in a decent draft.

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  84. Yeah I don't think its a horrible deal for Atlanta, then again I know nothing about Morin. I know some about Aliu, interesting prospect but had a bad year by the looks of it.

    Atlanta gets three NHL players for one so that helps them. Two picks and a prospect is a bit to give but then again who knows how they turn out.

    Its a win for Chicago though for sure. Replacement for Madden but most importantly cap space in a big way and the only guy who can't be replaced by a generic veteran is Byfuglien. And as I said they have Brouwer so its not like they don't have depth.

    All about gaining the cap space. Good move.

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  85. Would anyone here, if they were Oiler GM, offer to "do Chicago a favor" and send them Khabibulin for Huet straight across?

    Not sayin', just sayin'....


    Maybe.He could play the games on his weekend pass from Folsom.

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  86. Was wondering whether or not all three Oilers uber-rookies next season (Eberle/MPS/Hall I assume) should be starting next season together in the AHL.

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  87. I like this move in a Montreal bringing in French players kind of way. Should help Atlanta sell some tickets.

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  88. Yeah they might go from 5500 per game to 5517.

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  89. BD,

    I'd do Huet + Versteeg for Khabby.

    Huet's contract is done in two years.

    Everybody wins since Khabby misses less games due to not being able to cross the Canadian border. :)

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  90. Hunter, a OKC roster with Eberle, MPS, Omark, and big centre men like Vande Velde and Hartikainen would still be worlds of fun to watch sans Hall. I would prefer all of start in the AHL and work their way through the call-up list.

    That is unless they absolutely destroy training camp and tear the doors off the hinges =).

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  91. I said in the previous thread that I like that the team winning is forced by the cap to dismantle.

    Byfuglien was instrumental in the final when he forced the gap-toothed goliath to lug him around the ice as much as possible. I think he's mostly replaceable otherwise.

    I'd look seriously @ Huet for Khabby to shorten the term by a year and get out of the 35+ junk.

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  92. //Yeah they might go from 5500 per game to 5517// so true!! :-)

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  93. Tambellini should take on the last 2 years of Huet's contract for that 24th overall.

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  94. WG is right, Chi would probably give something up to do the Khabby/Huet swap.

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  95. Huet for Khabibulin doens't work for Chicago. They can bury Huet's contract. They can't bury Khabibulin's.

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  96. godot - only if they intend to bury the contract. They still have to pay it when he's down there.

    Its a real money albatross.

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  97. I think the Oilers can't go wrong, and do not think it is a black and white decision.

    Carry on.

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  98. One thing is for certain:

    Edmonton will not draft or acquire a center better than Tyler Seguin in the next decade.

    BPA only works when you can trade for for needs, but what we need can only be acquired via the draft.

    I'll be fine with either.

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  99. I am excited about the draft, but want to see some trades and buyouts.

    At the very least, just for some excitement.

    I know the Souray trade might need to wait, but am jonesing for some trades. That was the great thing about Lowe and Sather. They always knew how to throw some crazy deal together -not always a good deal- that gave us something to talk about. This may be one reason why the Oiler blogs are still more interesting than the rest.

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  100. Trak - not necessarily true. Hall could conceivably make it possible to trade MPS for a lesser center than Seguin

    It won't be cheap, but it can be done.

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  101. Hi LT,

    Do you have any thoughts regarding my post at 2:38?

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  102. I think MBS liked Seguin all the way.

    All the hubbub out of Oiler camp about Hall is to get something from Chiarelli to pass on him.

    They are very close so the Oilers can afford to draft for need and a big C is a need.

    Heard and seen MBS talk about both kids a few times.

    His voice gains an octave and he sits up straighter when talking about Seguin.

    Book it!

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  103. JB-"jiggyman"

    Jiggy you do realize that in September of 1938 the OVERWHELMING consensus was that the "Munich Agreement" whereby Chamberlain talked Czechoslovakia into giving up the Sudetenland to appease Hitlerwas considered an unbeliavable success.

    Central Scouting, ISS, Hockey News and Redline Report (along with King George) all gave Chamberlain a big thumbs up!!!!!!

    Winston Churchill was in a very very small minority that looked upon "Peace in our time" as a horrible blemish on Britain's honour

    Sometimes history vindicates the minority

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  104. Mustafa: You made an excellent point in that post this afternoon. I don't think it is a huge consideration (asking the new coach what he thinks) because it is an organizational turning point.

    Having said that, a "complete player" with a wide range of skills has appeal for any coach in any era.

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  105. TOJ, Should of guessed Godwin would eventually arrive to the Hall/Seguin debate. Nice to see you providing a counterweight to the extreme Hall supporters.

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  106. My reference was not, at all, to Hitler or the Nazi's. Rather it is that sometimes it is not so bad to be on the other side of the argument because if you are right........ there are not so many people standing in line to take credit.

    Kinda like today, every French person over the age of 70 was actively in the Resistance when in fact the size of the Resistance was comparatively small and many of those were communists. Ditto Churchill who was looked upon as a kook and war monger in the 1930's because he wanted to stand up to the Fascist movement in Europe

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  107. TOJ, It's close. In the end one of them will be better and it will have nothing to do with who was right. Sorry, no vindication for anyone here.

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  108. Marc said...
    RiversQ

    Isn't it a bit premature to say that none of Tambellini's moves have succeeded? Would you really say that all of the following are failed bets:


    OK, I'll bite.

    - keeping Stu Macgregor

    I know LT is a big fan, but I don't see what the fuss is all about. So far he's been running drafts with really good picks because the team stinks. I think this is really marginal risk/reward.

    - bringing Renney into the organisation

    I suppose this is OK. The jury's out on him though, because he was part of the braintrust doing stupid stuff last year. Hopefully the NYR Renney is the real Renney.

    - turning a third string goalie into Stone

    The risk/reward here is so low, it is hardly worth mentioning.

    - turning Vish into a younger, cheaper, bigger offensive Dman

    But not a better one. I don't hate the deal because Vish helps teams win and that's probably not where the Oilers are right now, but I don't think it's a feather in the cap.

    - getting a 2nd round pick for a player they weren't going to qualify, and not taking any salary back

    If I look at the current depth chart, the Oilers would be qualifying Grebs right now. I don't consider this a good move by any stretch.

    - dumping Staios and somehow how getting a 3rd round pick

    Credit where credit is due. This was a good move.

    - ending the deal with Springfield and setting up a new AHL franchise

    This one made me laugh out loud. First of all, this kind of move isn't under Tambo's job description. Secondly, when you rape, pillage and scorch the Earth, do you hang around or get the fuck out of Dodge? Lastly, I fail to see how this has any real positive benefit for the Oilers. Why does it matter where the AHL franchise is located?

    - putting a formal player development system in place

    We'll see about that. It might be formal, but no word on its efficacy. One thing is for sure, the Oilers have made little progress with young players since Tambo's been here and especially since MacT got canned.

    - putting that online video system that Staples has been writing about in place

    Same category as above.

    I certainly see your point about it being early, but I still think the ledger for Tambellini is covered in red right now.

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