Monday, January 9, 2012

Rookies

Despite appearances, the Edmonton Oilers are relying far less on rookies this NHL season. The huge number of rookies from a year ago are still developing but at least the pace of new hires has slowed to a more normal rate.

11-12 Rookies (TOI)
  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 658
  2. Corey Potter 549
  3. Anton Lander 395
  4. Lennart Petrell 282
  5. Colten Teubert 182
  6. Alex Plante 32
  7. Teemu Hartikainen 27
  8. Ryan O'Marra 20
A quick note: the NHL doesn't count Potter and Petrell as rookies, but I do because they are first year NHLers and their arrival at a later age doesn't make playing in the league any easier. The 11-12 Oilers have used rookies for 2,145 minutes this season, so we should expect about 4,000 total minutes devoted to rookies over the entire year. Fair?

2010-11 (TOI)
  1. Devan Dubnyk 2061
  2. Magnus Paajarvi 1231
  3. Jordan Eberle 1220
  4. Taylor Hall 1184
  5. Linus Omark 783
  6. Jeff Petry 713
  7. Ryan O'Marra 231
  8. Teemu Hartikainen 209
  9. Chris VandeVelde 207
  10. Alex Plante 45
7,884 minutes or thereabouts devoted to rookies. Man that's a lot of time on ice. The Oilers have graduated a ton of kids since G7 SCF in 2006:

06-12 Rookies (6 years)
  1. Jeff Deslauriers (09-10) 2798
  2. Devan Dubnyk (10-11) 2061
  3. Tom Gilbert (07-08) 1820
  4. Ladislav Smid (06-07) 1481
  5. Sam Gagner (07-08) 1238
  6. Magnus Paajarvi (10-11) 1231
  7. Jordan Eberle (10-11) 1220
  8. Taylor Hall (10-11) 1140
  9. Andrew Cogliano (07-08) 1112
  10. Kyle Brodziak (07-08) 1033
  11. Jan Hejda (06-07) 795
  12. Linus Omark (10-11) 783
  13. Patrick Thoresen (06-07) 776
  14. Taylor Chorney (09-10) 730
  15. Jeff Petry (10-11) 713
  16. Curtis Glencross (07-08) 709
  17. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11-12) 658
  18. Marc Pouliot (06-07) 600
  19. Corey Potter (11-12) 549
  20. Liam Reddox (08-09) 481
  21. Brad Winchester (06-07) 476
  22. Anton Lander (11-12) 395
  23. Danny Syvret (06-07) 295
  24. Jean Francois Jacques (06-07) 293
  25. Ryan Stone (09-10) 293
  26. Lennart Petrell (11-12) 281
  27. Theo Peckham (09-10) 241
  28. Ryan O'Marra (10-11) 231
  29. Matheiu Roy (06-07) 226
  30. Teemu Hartikainen (10-11) 209
  31. Chris VandeVelde (10-11) 207
  32. Zach Stortini (06-07) 207
  33. Colten Teubert (11-12) 182
  34. Bryan Young (06-07) 151
  35. Steve MacIntyre (08-09) 86
The Oilers have graduated a lot of players to the NHL since they went deep into the spring 2006 playoffs. Cogliano, Brodziak, Hejda, Glencross, Winchester and others have spent time in the NHL this season. Moving back the cluster has its downside, and one of them is being a development team for more successful organizations. Would Curtis Glencross help the Oilers?

The best rookies by position are Dubnyk, Smid, Gilbert, RNH, Hall and Eberle. That's a helluva group. I expect that the Oilers will add a lot of rookie minutes in the second half, after all these injuries have to be filled and the trade deadline means veterans leaving town.

Is Corey Potter part of the long term or another Jan Hejda? I bet they sign him.
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17 comments:

  1. DBOMonday, January 9, 2012 at 7:12:00 AM MST

    Potter has been up and down, but better then Peckham and Tuebert (and Barker by eye). He can adequately play 5-6 EV and 1st PP. That is a decent asset that will cost around $1 mill a season on a 2 yr deal. That is a decent signing that doesn't take away anyones minutes who deserves it, and while RNH and the kids deserve the biggest part of the credit for the PP, Potter has definitely made an impact. Solid two way dman who will be cheap cost wise and still fits our growth curve of our kids. If you had 2 more AHL vets 26-28 yrs old instead of peckham and Tuebert we would be a better defensive team.

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  2. potterplayMonday, January 9, 2012 at 7:47:00 AM MST

    @DBO... $1 million a season? What kind of NHL regular makes a mil a year? I agree Potters the ideal 5/6 and 1st pp guy, but even in that role he's going to be making much more than that, especially since he's currently over a .5/ppg pace. Try 2.5-3.

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  3. WoodguyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 8:11:00 AM MST

    Is Corey Potter part of the long term or another Jan Hejda? They better sign him.

    FYP.

    DBO nailed it. This is the type of player you flesh out the bottom pairing with.

    Renney seemed allergic to a type of rookie this year. PRV getting the sideburns treatment and Omark getting sent away quickly.

    I honestly think that Renney is trying to win games (which makes some of his deployment decisions even more bizzare, esp in BUF with Green and Harski getting more 5v5 minutes than Belanger, Jones, Eager, and Eberle)

    I don't understand his allergy to 91 and 23, when 37 and 57 have put up enforcer like puck possession numbers, and 37 stayed for a long time, and 57 is still here.

    Maybe its because he has a longer leash on the 4th line due to ice time.

    What's funny is their best results where:

    1) Beginning of the season when he matched 94-10 hard and gave the kids 70% OZS (.964 SV% helps too)

    2) When he deployed pairs 93-14, 89-4, 10-94, 20-28 as the corner stone for his lines. When he has made a "true" 4th line (57-x) and gone away from the hard match the results are very bad.

    So he needs to either keep up the hard match, or deploy capable players on all 4 lines.

    He meanders in the middle by making a shitty 4th with no hard match and they get killed.

    I know that v3.2 wears 100% for the lack of balance on the roster, but Renney seems to go away from what works best for no good reason.

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  4. WoodguyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 8:13:00 AM MST

    @DBO... $1 million a season? What kind of NHL regular makes a mil a year?

    Bottom pairing Dmen rarely make over that (often $500-$700K)

    Designated "energy players" on the 4th and sometimes 3rd forward lines also make in that neighbourhood.

    Have a look at www.capgeek.com and look at a bunch of teams.

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  5. DBOMonday, January 9, 2012 at 8:16:00 AM MST

    potterplay: he is an AHL vet who is getting his fiorarst real shot at the NHL. He's never gotten more then league minimum at the NHL level, so a million is almost double. Ryan Jones after scoring 18 last year got just $1.5 mill, and he was more established. There are a bunch of vet nhl dmen making $1 mill, and a ton of "rookies" (ie. late AHL vets) making less then a mill. Sorry, but if he gets more then $1 mill, then we are terrible at asset management.No one is going t poach him as he isn't dominant, and isn't young enough to be a prospect. Lots of AHL guys like him. And remember sometimes it's all about team and opportunity, and not sure if another team would give him the same opportunity (not to mention the voach who believes in him)

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  6. Jonathan McLeodMonday, January 9, 2012 at 8:28:00 AM MST

    Having a goalie playing last season really inflates the numbers.

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  7. WoodguyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 9:07:00 AM MST

    From: @NHL_Oilers
    Sent: Jan 9, 2012 9:00a

    #Oilers have recalled forwards Magnus Paajarvi & Ryan O’Marra from the OKC Barons and placed forward Gilbert Brule on re-entry waivers

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  8. WoodguyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 9:10:00 AM MST

    I wonder if anyone picks off Brule on his way up?

    Glad 91 is coming up, hopefully Renney doesn't play him with 20-28

    I liked O'marra's (42?) game last time too, a slight upgrade from 57.

    Maye 57 goes back down when someone gets healthy?

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  9. LMHF#1Monday, January 9, 2012 at 9:12:00 AM MST

    Not recalling Teemu is incredibly stupid, though because it is such a bad move, that is what I expected them to do.

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  10. wunderbarMonday, January 9, 2012 at 9:17:00 AM MST

    Oilers have called up Paajarvi, O'Marra, and...... Gilbert Brule.

    I have a feeling this means bad news is coming for Eberle if they're putting Brule on re-entry waivers. They probably realize Eberle is out for a while, hope Brule and PRV can provide some offence.

    verification word: langish - what the oilers are doing in the basement (and yes, I know it's not spelled right)

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  11. GusMonday, January 9, 2012 at 9:33:00 AM MST

    I'm too lazy to do it, but I would be interested to see a comparison of the team's injuries this season compared to previous seasons and their performance. I suspect that there has been modest improvement.

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  12. DuceyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 9:54:00 AM MST

    They were talking on the radio this AM about how Penner injured his back eating pancakes, and Brule recently suffered 2nd degree burns on his hands from a pop tart.

    It would be nice to see Brule catch a few breaks and earn himself a full time NHL gig.

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  13. WoodguyMonday, January 9, 2012 at 10:25:00 AM MST

    Springing Malik has a post up showing all teams' injuried players using caphits.

    Interesting stuff.

    EDM is middle of the pack.

    V3.2 will have you believe they have the worst luck in the NHL, but perhaps they only have the worst management in the NHL.

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  14. GusMonday, January 9, 2012 at 10:34:00 AM MST

    WG Using Malik's metric, I would expect that the Oil were in worse shape (injury wise) last season. That might indicate that there has not been a lot of improvement this season.

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  15. DennisMonday, January 9, 2012 at 1:05:00 PM MST

    So many points being made and I try to come up with something original and it came to me the other day that 44 is doing what Foster was supposed to do before him: be a part of a good PP.

    I like him and he shouldn't cost fuckall and if we end up with seven real D and him and 58 are vying for the last spot in the top six then fuck yeah, that's actual goddamn depth progress.

    I like Both 44 and 58 but I see them as 5th and 6th D so could they manage to not get killed if they formed a pair? The way I view this is you look at 6-44-58 as your 5th through 7th dmen and that means you need none One but Two top four dmen.

    Considering Tambellini hasn't even been able to find one of those, what's the chance he can find two?

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  16. AnonymousMonday, January 9, 2012 at 5:39:00 PM MST

    Seems Oilers have actually signed Potter to a 2 yr extension. Lowetide must be getting intel from bra and panties to see this one coming... ;)

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  17. potterplayMonday, January 9, 2012 at 5:53:00 PM MST

    @ DBO.. well that didn't take long.. he just signed for 1.6 mil/2 years. I never thought i'd be eating my words, let alone a few hours after that post. Props, you were right all along.

    As a side note, thats an awesome signing for that price. Good work tambo!

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