Las Vegas in the olden days must have been something else. The NHL will be expanding soon, 2 more teams are required to make things work. Among the possible cities are Toronto 2.0, Quebec City, Las Vegas, Seattle, Kansas City. The old KC Scouts are in town tonight.
Steve Tambellini could help this team by adding a veteran defenseman now. I understand the hope is that Ryan Whitney is going to be available in the fall but counting on it is unwise. Adding a defender now, and another in the summer, would put a smile on the face of many Oiler fans. That defender may be unavailable now, but two in the summmer should be the plan.
Oilers lost RNH, Jordan Eberle and Tommy Gilbert from the December club that was putrid and have called up Magnus Paajarvi and Ryan O'Marra. NJD are terrible too, this is the kind of game I used to get free tickets to back in the day (not true, the Canuck tickets were the easiest to get) and win or lost it'll be tough to entertain the fans unless Taylor Hall is on fire again.
There's no way to disguise this thing. Oilers have stepped into the elevator shaft and there's no help coming. It'll be interesting to see how many games they win between tonight and the return of Gilbert, Eberle and RNH. Stan Weir spends another season parked in the garage.
Mickey Mouse vs. Goofy.
ReplyDeleteHopefully Jersey's flight was late and the heat went out in the teams hotel.
ReplyDeleteHenrique - kid is a beauty.
I hope Edmonton gets an NHl team in the expansion.
ReplyDeletejust noticed the "Golden Nugge" sign in the photo.
ReplyDeleteSo when the NHL does expand, how many players does each team get to protect from the expansion draft? I'd hate to lose anyone of value.
ReplyDeleteThe Devils were my favorite team as a kid, before Lemaire and the cup wins. In the Muller, Maclean, Sundstrom, Danyeko, Burke days. My parents bought me tickets to see the Oilers vs Devils for Xmas and we'd make the trip out from Jasper for it. I used to hope for a tie game so that I'd get to watch 5 more minutes.
ReplyDeleteThen they started to get good right when the Oilers were in the midst of their steady decline from relevance. I somehow jumped ship to the Oil and have been suffering ever since.
My NFL team is the Bengals so I clearly have a thing for teams that have problems winning.
My two favorite teams playing tonight...why haven't I jumped off the roof yet?
ReplyDeleteHopefully Marty Brodeur gets the start tonight. His .891 save percentage is 4th worst (out of 45 goalies) in the league.
ReplyDeleteHe should be fresh after his "performance" last night.
Might be the last time we see him.
The worst save %? Roloson at .880
I heard last night that Josh Harding is probably available. Can't we make that happen somehow? Sure looks like Tampa needs Khabby!
ReplyDeleteI'd hate to lose anyone of value.
ReplyDeleteI really hope this is sarcasm.
I don't care if they win this one or not. I just don't want to see Kovalchuk score. If he gets a one timer off from the top of the circle again I just might snap.
Martin Frk has moved down to 25th in TSN's Mid Season Draft Rankings. He's had concussion problems and opted out of the WJC this year but if he regains form he could be the steal of the draft.
I think the Oilers need to be in the Weber/Suter sweepstakes. That one stud defenceman can make all the difference in the world, as we know all too well.
I've never liked the idea of two Toronto teams. It just seems so...Canadian. Maybe we can name them the Roughriders?
@Ribs: Kovalchuk shoots from there every single game. No need to snap unless he actually snaps 'er home.
ReplyDeleteYea, that's what I mean. If he scores. It's so freakin' predictable. Cover the guy!
ReplyDelete"Death" from The Seventh Seal is about as perfect an extrapolation for this team as possible, bravo!
ReplyDeleteAnd to think at the start of the season I looked at the forward lines and wondered to myself "when" the Kid Line players would be getting slaughtered by opposition goons, not if. Odd that I don't feel psychic over this reality.
Two real defenceman would be a very very good idea for the start of next season; development of these kiddie-corps defencemen shouldn't be taken for granted by Toonces - in fact, for being so blithe he should be forced to play some form of Russian Roulette in order to keep his job.
Still, Katz only cares about his arena, and no doubt loves the idea of Oilers only being any good when it's opened(construction has already been started, right?).
As for tonight's game, I'm hoping for a loss...what's the point of winning with these bums? Let them finish 30th, then MAYBE changes are made this summer...otherwise, wtf everyone keeps their jobs for another year.
And finally, to all of you who want Oilers to trade down in the draft - drop dead. Or, watch Zach Parise set up the winning goal and remember MA Pouliot/JF Jacques; that is, if you even know what the correlation is between these three players.
@Ribs:
ReplyDeleteI could handle the Ontario Roughriders in the NHL.
I'd have more of a problem with a Quebec City team - there just doesn't seem to be much there other than history, no?
Team in Las Vegas... would probably do okay at the gate, but certainly would take a while to establish. I'm a bigger fan of the move to Seattle. Good hockey support there already.
"I'd hate to lose anyone of value"
ReplyDeleteNope no sarcasm. I don't remember how many players a team can protect. The "players" (that's sarcasm) on the bottom two lines will eventually be replaced with prospects. I'm not worried about losing an Eager here or there, but whoever eventually replaces him might have value.
Anyway, the NHL should be dumping two teams instead of adding two.
I think the Oilers need to be in the Weber/Suter sweepstakes. That one stud defenceman can make all the difference in the world, as we know all too well.
ReplyDeleteWhat sweepstakes?
The Preds have tons of cap room, they have committed to one other player (Rinne) and draft great.
Weber is still an RFA after this year. They could easily sign a long term deal with Suter for $6.5 M to $7.5M this offseason and then do a long term deal with Weber next year that might cost them $8.0 M in actual dollars.
Is there some reason Nash can't afford $15 M for two defencemen?
Nashville is a great place to live and both seem happy there. I don't see any sweepstakes.
Martin Frk has moved down to 25th in TSN's Mid Season Draft Rankings.
The scouts noticed he has a hereditary vowel problem.
Preds have made no progress with re-signing Suter, even though they've had talks.
ReplyDeleteIf they can't get a deal done before the trade deadline, I would expect a blockbuster deal from Poile because even though they want to make the playoffs, he can't afford to let him walk with no return.
While I'd love to see the Oilers get in on this, Suter wants to go somewhere where they will win - not rebuild.
And it would take a bold move by 3.2, and I don't see it in the cards.
Most of you probably already know this, but the PG Cougars traded Oilers prospect, Martin Marincin, to the Regina Pats yesterday, along with three draft picks for Ricard Blidstrand and the Pats 1st and 2nd picks in 2012 and a 5th round in 2013. Sad to see Marincin go after watching him progress quite nicely this season under Dean Clark and his staff, but obviously the Pats want to make a run whereas the Cougars look to be sellers again.
ReplyDeletePG also traded the junior rights for Brett Conolly to Tri-Cities for a 5th round pick in 2013 and conditional 1st round in 2013 and 2nd round in 2014. The condition being Conolly returning to junior for a final year.
Is there some reason Nash can't afford $15 M for two defencemen?
ReplyDeleteConsidering that they spend 50M a year (cap space means nothing if they dont spend to the cap) And 15M would bring them up to about 49M but only have 15 players signed for next year...
Yes there is a reason.
Is there some reason Nash can't afford $15 M for two defencemen?
ReplyDeleteIt's entirely possible that they could sign them. Columbus blew a bunch of money that they said they didn't have recently. Things don't look to be going that way in Nashville so far. We'll see. I just don't want to hear "Oh, I didn't know that those guys were available" from our GM when one or both of them are traded.
The scouts noticed he has a hereditary vowel problem.
hee hee.
And it would take a bold move by 3.2, and I don't see it in the cards.
Well, this Lowe guy is still sticking around...
Suter/Weber
ReplyDeleteJust like the Oilers are going to have to deal with when Hall, RNH and Eberle come up as UFA: Suter and Weber control their own destiny. It will not matter if they have cap space, contract space or anything else. Suter and Weber will have to either love Nashville and their teammates OR think the foundation Poile has built is able to compete late into the playoffs to win a Cup or two.
Absent one of the above two factors: Suter and/or Weber are going to walk. If I was Nashville I would sure hope Suter/Weber really love Nashville because with the team they have they are not competing for the Cup....hence the sweepstakes.
Weber plays on an Olympic team and sees so many of the players as SC champions. He, legitimately, can think I am as good at what I do (defence) as anyone and I may never compete to win a cup with a team built around Rinne, Suter and myself. Ditto Suter. The question is not and never has been cap space or $$$.
In the NBA the CBA actually pays a premium for elite players to resign with their own team: they can make much, much more $$$ resigning with their existing team than as a FA. The elite players still move.
If Poile does not resign Suter, he will not resign Weber. That, thats then a real sweepstakes
Something Tambellini said on an earlier Oil Change registered with me and rings even clearer now. "With the first overall pick the Edmonton Oilers are PROUD to select"...
ReplyDeleteTheres your first problem Steve. You should be embarrassed rather than proud.
That said, I wonder who ST will be PROUD to select #1 overall this year?
And I thought it was tough being a Roughrider and Expo fan.
I get the attraction of big name players but the Oilers have many problems. No one player can fix them. This is the moment to say the rebuild is over it is time to start competing.
ReplyDeleteThat means being bold. Go out and get some actual NHL players. Ignore the bright baubles and go for value for money.
For example, trade Hemsky and the Oilers first this year to Buffalo for Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera and Luke Adam. Would Buffalo bite? Darcy Regier is the most stressed GM in the league right now so possibly.
Oilers get a big right winger who isn't Hemsky but also isn't nothing. That makes the top six F bigger. The Oilers also get a true NHL defenceman (admittedly a 3-4)which speaks to the issue of D-depth. On top of which they get a big 2 C who loves the hard areas. Best of all, the three are affordable for years to come.
Buffalo gets the best player in the deal, unquestionably. They will also have two picks in the top seven this year and that could well become two in the top five. They also get significant cap relief. They might even succeed in signing Hemsky. If not they could always move him at the trade deadline.
Considering that they spend 50M a year (cap space means nothing if they dont spend to the cap) And 15M would bring them up to about 49M but only have 15 players signed for next year...
ReplyDeleteYes there is a reason.
I don't see it.
They have $15.75M committed for Legwand, Erat, Fisher and Horqvist. They would have $15M for Suter/ Weber and $7 M for Rinne.
Thats $37.75 for 7 players. If they average $1M for the other 15 players (which is essentially what they do now) they come in around $52 M.
If they dump Legwand, they come in at ~$49M.
I'm a bigger fan of the move to Seattle. Good hockey support there already.
ReplyDeletePlus the geography thing for western, especially northwestern, teams.
But Seattle’s arena is not NHL caliber as it stands.
It would need a fairly major re-fit.
That Sabres trade idea is pretty funky.
Weber plays on an Olympic team and sees so many of the players as SC champions. He, legitimately, can think I am as good at what I do (defence) as anyone and I may never compete to win a cup with a team built around Rinne, Suter and myself. Ditto Suter. The question is not and never has been cap space or $$$.
ReplyDeleteLets assume you are right. If the question is winning, why would Weber or Suter sign longterm to a rebuilding team?
Oilers tweet..
ReplyDeleteOilers have recalled forward Milan Kytnar from the ECHL's Stockton Thunder on emergency recall
Say what? Wow.
Tencer says O'Marra is sick.
@ vor:
ReplyDeleteI would suggest that your ideas of getting actual NHL players versus "bso's" (bright shiney objects) is not in fact bold, but building basics.
And as we've seen, the lack of actual NHL d-men is killing this team.
Not sure I like the return you suggest for Hemsky because we shouldn't count on Whitney moving forward but this is where it starts and as much as I'd hate to lose Hemsky, I'd feel worse if we traded Gagner.
my boy kytnar?!
ReplyDeletefinally, the start of a 15 year nhl career...;)
You'd think at some point we'd cease being so bush league to need to call on Kytnar because of roster management and poor travel arranging....but apparently not.
ReplyDeleteNor can we count on Whitney moving backward.
ReplyDeleteDucey
ReplyDeleteWith one of Weber or Suter the Oilers have a very solid top 4 moving forward. With one of them and the way Smid and Gilbert have progressed this year, the Oilers would be a 5-8 team next year. The following year they could legitimately be playing 2 playoff rounds and in 3 years they are in the Canuck, Blackhawk, SJS, Detroit grouping (which will no longer contain DET) competing for the SCF yearly
Juxtapose that with Nashville or for that matter just about any team in the West. The Oilers are somewhat like the 06 Cup team. They have a single GAPING hole in their roster- then it was goaltending. Now- it is a piss poor defence. By obtaining one of those 2 guys, everyone moves down a slot and plays at a less stressful pace. Suspect Potter playing 14-16 minutes a game will be a real solid player
Or we can resign Barker, Sutton and pray Whitney's chronic ankle problem improves a la Peter Forsberg , wait a minute
I don't see it.
ReplyDeleteThey have $15.75M committed for Legwand, Erat, Fisher and Horqvist. They would have $15M for Suter/ Weber and $7 M for Rinne.
Thats $37.75 for 7 players. If they average $1M for the other 15 players (which is essentially what they do now) they come in around $52 M.
If they dump Legwand, they come in at ~$49M.
Capgeek.com =
Players signed for 2012-2013 = 13
Rinne = 7m
Ellis = 1.4m
Klien = 1.4m
Roman = 1m
Erat = 4.5m
Legwand = 4.5m
Fisher = 4.2m
Hornqvist = 3m
Spaling = 1m
Smithson = 0.8m
Smith = 0.7m
Halischuk = 0.7m
Bourque = 0.6m
Plus the 1.8m they owe on buyouts
This adds up to approximately 32.6
You add on 15 for the two D and its 47.6 for 15 Players.
So you factor in that some of those players are actually in the minors and that they have the possibility for some trades. MAYBE they could afford the two D @ 15m but I doubt it.
44% of your pay for 13% of your roster is not a good idea.
That leaves 1.47 for the other 19 players on average (that's if they somehow got rid of the players they already have)
If they didnt make any moves that would leave them about what... say 0.6-0.8m average for 7 more players.
Even Nashville wouldnt pull that off and stay competitive. Why would a GM do that?
If Bettman had any balls at all, and he wanted to do what was best for the health of the league, he'd FOLD two teams instead of add more. Obviously Phoenix, and probably Columbus.
ReplyDeleteThat's an instant $50M a year savings that the league no longer has to pay them in bailout money. Dispersal draft makes each of the remaining teams a bit stronger. Fewer teams means every team has a slightly better chance of making the playoffs. I don't see a downside.
Apparently the Lames set some sort of modern day record last night by scoring 6 goals on only 14 shots. The Devils were the clearly superior team, but for goaltending. Here's to hoping that NJ throws up a .571 save percentage two nights in a row!
Once when I heard Tomei interviewed she was ditzing to the hilt, but man can she put on a scene, even if this passage isn't her bit.
ReplyDeleteRenney: I don't need this. I swear to God, I do not need this right now, okay? I've got a sheriff who's just aching to throw Sutton in jail. An idiot who recruited Barker for another season. Slaughtered call-ups. Giant loud whistles non-stop every road game. I ain't slept in five pregame naps. I got lousy ice, a roster problem, AND some murky MRI results which, in the balance, holds the careers of two innocent kids. Not to mention your [stomp] [stomp] [stomp] YOUTH CLUSTER CLOCK - my career, your life, our reputations, and let me see, what else can we pile on? Is there any more SHIT we can pile on to the top of the outcome of the home stand? Is it possible?
Tambi: Maybe it was a bad time to bring it up.
Not to mention one of my favorite scenes ever, director's cut.
Vinny: Maybe you didn't twist it hard enough.
Lisa: I twisted it just right.
Vinny: How could you be so sure?
Lisa: [sighs] If you will look in the manual, you will see that this particular model faucet requires a range of 10 to 16 foot-pounds of torque. I routinely twist the maximum allowable torquage.
Vinny: Well, how could you be sure you used 16 foot-pounds of torque?
Lisa: Because I used a Craftsman model 1019 Laboratory Edition Signature Series torque wrench. The kind used by Caltech high energy physicists. And NASA engineers.
Vinny: Well, in that case, how can you be sure THAT's accurate?
Lisa: Because a split second before the torque wrench was applied to the faucet handle, it had been calibrated by top members of the state AND federal Department of Weights and Measures... to be dead on balls accurate!
[She rips a page out of a magazine and hands it to him]
Lisa: Here's the certificate of validation.
Vinny: Dead on balls accurate?
Lisa: It's an industry term.
Vinny: What about technique? This certificate [slaps page] doesn't validate your technique.
Lisa: Fully acredited, from the hips, like a quarterback.
Vinny: In those shoes?
Lisa: [Arches eyebrows] With these legs?
Vinny: No way!
Lisa: [Demonstrates] It's all in the ankles. Torque and precision, dead on balls [flexes opposite gam] in both directions.
[Vinny fumbles tongue between his teeth. The altercation ends with Lisa on top and Vinny sputtering wordlessly.]
If I were a writer on Big Bang Theory, Wolowitz's prized possession back at the lab would be a Craftsman model 1019 Laboratory Edition Signature Series torque wrench and a calibration fetish that even Sheldon finds a mite excessive.
So the NHLPA won't approve the re-alignment and it's just a bargaining chip to create 42 new jobs with (2) new teams. If I'm Bettman I'm saying "approve it or we'll cut two teams"! Problem solved. And if you could cut two teams who would they be? Phoenix would be one obviously although I'm sure Bettman has made some wild promises to people for that franchise to either stay (again) or relocate. Would Florida be the other team?
ReplyDeleteLet's see... RNH and Eberle out, Kyntar called up on an emergency basis...
ReplyDeleteAnd yet Renney puts Paajarvi on the third line with Belanger.
What's that definition of insanity again?
Kytnar? Strange indeed. Why are the Oilers so desperate to bring up a 5th centre for tonight's game. Horcoff, Gagner, Belanger and Lander... Why Kytnar? Which player does he replace?
ReplyDelete@ Bendelson:
ReplyDeleteLander's playing RW with Belanger and Pajaarvi.
OMarra was Centering Hordi and Eager. That's where Kytnar will be.
Yakupov 53 pts in 26 g = 2.04 ppg
ReplyDeleteHall 106 pts in 57 g = 1.86
Grigorenko 58 pts in 36 = 1.61
RNH 106 in 69 = 1.53
Eberle 75 in 70 = 1.07
The Oilers may not want to give up a lottery pick too quick.
Vinny's problem is that he never comes up with the best line until it's too late.
ReplyDeleteVinny: [wishes he had said] In those shoes? It's a torque wrench, not a stork wrench.
I am betting that Kytnar is being brought up because it was possible to get him here in time for the game.
ReplyDeleteI am betting that Kytnar is being brought up because it was possible to get him here in time for the game.
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly why he was called up.
Also,
Mark Spector says Oilers should re-sign Tambellini and Renney
The money quote for me is:
But it's difficult to look at Tambellini's work and count up the things he's done wrong.
Jesus.
It should only be difficult because you ran out of fingers and toes to count on.
I agree (and have said often) that v3.2 has done great work in development and building the AHL franchise up. When it comes to the NHL team however, he is a mess.
Other than the Belanger signing, Potter signing and letting MBS call out names in June, I don't think he's done a lot right.
Another quote from the article is amusing as well:
...and their best three defencemen: Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert and Cam Barker (all ankles).
Cam freaking Barker is the third best Dman on the Oilers?????
Better than Smid????
Christ, Barker has the easiest QualComp, best Qual Team, and gets outshot more than any other Oiler Dman not name Taylor Chorney.
On my depth chart he's behind Gilbert, Smid, Whitney, Potter, Pety at least. I even like seeing Peckman more than Barker out there.
Lordy.
Spector don't know D-men.
ReplyDeleteGregor almost laughed out loud one afternoon last spring after Spector said something insane about Vandermeer.
Gregor caught himself just in time.
Khabibulin won a Cup you know.
And, Brule had turned the corner.
Hordichuk scares the other team....
If Spector isn't the dumbest person on the internet I don't know who is.
ReplyDeleteSadly I was on board for the 'Fail for Nail' from the opening of the season through the hot start, and then interest tailed off during 2 months of hellishly large amounts of work.
ReplyDeleteLooks like everyone is getting back on board now that regression, injuries, bad play, and just plain bad luck have accrued.
Wonder if the Oilers finish bottom 3.
In regards to Spector's comments about the defence. Firstly, I think it's time to stop referring to Whitney as the teams top defender. Until he gets healthy and proves he gain regain the skills he once showed he is nothing more than a massive question mark. Sure based on past performance he has significant upside but that doesn't amount to much today does it? Good reliable play by Whitney should be considered a nice surprise if and when it ever happens again.
ReplyDeleteSecondly if Spector really believes Barker is better than Smid than Spector is lost and needs to be sidelined - he gets paid for that crap?
Maybe Spector meant "their best three injured defencemen".
ReplyDeleteWoodguy:
ReplyDeleteMark Spector says Oilers should resign Tambellini and Renney
There... fixed it!
Oilers site is already focussing on the draft. Looking forward to watching the rest of the injuries this year¡
ReplyDelete7 out of 10 of the top prospects are defencemen. Just like Barker! Drafting one of those dmen seems like a great idea¡
Shoot me in the face!
For 2nd to last place!
The same crowd that complains about Barker is the same crowd that complained about Jones by using the same measures.
ReplyDelete+3 in 12 games this year but end results don't matter as much as the holy grail of stats that predicted Jones to be garbage.
Belanger was also one of Tambellini's worst moves. He hasn't helped Horcoff win draws or put up offensive numbers, he hasn't helped Horcoff keep the puck out of his net. He has zero offense and zero phyical play. Just another passenger locked up for 3 years.
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteShouldn't you add claiming Ryan Jones and signing him to his current contract to the list of things Tambellini has done right? He's turned into a highly effective forward and he's signed to a great contract.
I like the Voynov & Stoll for Hemsky and Belanger rumor.
ReplyDeleteI think that's actually pretty fair for both teams. 1 UFA on each side of the deal.
Hate to see Hemsky go, but a trade like that would be ok.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteDo you really think Barker is a good NHL Dman or are you just trolling?
Aside from your scathing hate of some players I generally agree with your player assesment, but I think you are way off here.
What's your rank of the Oiler's D?
Belanger also filled the 3 year hole in the 3C spot. Signing was good, results so far less than exciting.
Also, the damning numbers for Jones were his scoring chances with and without every player on the team. I'm not convinced he's improved that much away from 10 and 94. I like the way he goes to the net but he's still a defensive basket case by my eye.
The distain for Barker lies in getting out shot by the dregs of the league. Different metric, but the SC data will be available soon.
Marc,
Jones can be considered a win with his performance in the first 1/4 of the year, he's really fallen off since going back with Belanger. He's back with 10 and 94 now, so we'll see.
I'm not sold on him. Cheats for offense and not great in his own zone.
Money on a break away though.
Ducey,
ReplyDeletePretend for a moment you are a hedge fund that specializes in deferring the risks inherent in managing a hockey team.
So we know, from a lot of sources, the likelihood of getting a top six forward or top 4 D in the draft at each level and at each pick. As a good generalization - lottery pick = 40% chance. Now some of those players will be elite or even generational but those events happen so rarely it is better to stick with the 40% for now (we will come back to it later).
Many teams have asssets they would like to trade for that lottery pick. How does the hedge fund figure out what a compotent GM should get. Clearly we can say what is too much. Washington offers me Ovechkin that is an overpay for a lottery pick (sure thing, generational talent with a number of good years left). Andy Sutton would be too little.
The question is what is fair. The average NHL top 6/top 4 plays about 800 games in a career. If you offer me two guys from your top 6/top 4 who have less than 400 games played and are average or better at their position over their careers to date then it is pretty clear I'd be better off taking that deal. I get the equivalent of 1 full career of top six/top 4 versus a 40% chance at same. However, I have to discount that value because of the possibility of injuries or career ending slumps. Thus this would be roughly fair if the player your pick becomes isn't a super star.
Now the metric changes if you are in possession of #1 OV and there is a truly generational talent available. I am not sure that the scouts are yet convinced that Yakupov is that guy. However, as the hedge fund you have to cover off the possibility of your lottery choice being #1 (at least if you are in bottom four) and the pick being a 10.
Thus, if you seem destined for a bottom four finish the GM has to build that into the mix, as do you as hedge fund manager. Thus a lottery pick should give you a total of 1 career 6F/4D sure thing plus a premium. The question is what is fair premium. History would suggest that what you want is an early career 800+ game prospect or two more 6F/4D at 400 games or less. Also, those players also need to be cheap since many lottery picks perform well early and are at that point cheap relatively speaking so have more value per dollar.
So not simple.
It gets even harder when you trade your lottery pick now and then go on an outrageous winning streak and jump ten rungs up the standings and mess the other GM up really bad. Etc. So as the pick holder you have to realize that if you hang on to it and your team goes on a little run in a very narrowly spaced field you could end up losing enormous value that could have been acquired now. As the hedge fund guy you have to allow for that as well.
That is essentially how I got to our pick = two rock solid 6F/2D and a top 50 in the world prospect who has begun proving himself at the NHL level. If they are all on long term value deals that is. Thus Stafford, Adam, and Sereka.
Still think you want to hang on to that lottery pick?
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteA few stats culled from LT's mid year review:
5x5/60 forwards
Jones 1.76
Hemsky 1.52
5x4/60 forwards
Jones 6.25
Hemsky 2.62
CORSI REL/forwards
Hemsky 12.8
Jones 1.1
ZONE START/forwards
Jones 43.4
Hemsky 54.6
QUAL COMP/forwards
Hemsky 0.036
Jones -0.027
Penalty Kill:
Jones - In your comment here:
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/12/21/lennart-petrell-is-earning-his-keep-on-the-vastly-improved-oilers-penalty-kill/
you posted stats that show Jones allowing the lowest GA/60 of any Oiler penalty killer whilst having the second highest TOI/60 4v5. He also leads the team in short handed goals.
Hemsky - Doesn't kill penalties.
Salary:
Hemsky $4.1M
Jones $1.5M
Jones has been more effective than Hemsky at even strength though Hemsky faces tougher competition.
Hemsky has had better Rel Corsi but Jones has had much, much tougher zone starts - the toughest on the team.
Jones has been way, way more effective than Hemsky on the powerplay (!?!)
Jones (with Smyth) is one of the two best forwards on what is now top ten penalty kill.
If you think that Hemsky is an actual NHL player, I don't see how you can look at these numbers and doubt that Jones is too.
The always awesome Swedish Oiler connection Dohfos has a post up with Klefbom speculating on coming to North America next year
ReplyDeletePerhaps while Klefbom was in Alberta v3.2 encouraged him to come over a year earlier than he originally planned.
Maybe v3.2 out right begged him?
Barker might be the slowest player in the NHL. He's on the Stortini, Jacques career path. If there is a worse defenseman in the league I haven't seen him play.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a big problem renewing Tambo's contract. I think his patience is an asset. I could be persuaded that someone else might do better. There are lots who would do worse.
ReplyDeleteI think he has correctly identified that free agents are not going to come to Edmonton and trades just result in players wanting to leave after being here a while. See Eric Cole and others.
The way to build it is with young players who will gel together.
The last thing we need is someone that is going to come in and make a bunch of trades of young players just to get the Oilers in perpetual 7th or 8th. I want this to be a championship team not just a St Louis.
Where does that Voynov rumour come from? I'd love that deal.
ReplyDeleteDucey
ReplyDeleteOn what basis do you say FA will not come to Edm? History? Would you come here to play with the team that has been here the last 10 years 06 excepted?
If so, do you think having Hall, RNH and Eberle on ELC's change the attractiveness of the marketplace? Because getting people to play here in the 80's was not difficult, at all. Also is there something about Detroit that is alluring to FA other than the quality of the team? the City, nope.... fanbase? nope... economy?...nope it must be there short Eastern Conderence travel.... NOPE
Its the ability to play 2-3-4 rounds into the playoffs year after year.
Still think you want to hang on to that lottery pick?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I would. I think the odds of the lottery pick turning out to be a top 6 forward/ top 3 defenceman are much greater than 40%. He could get hurt but so could the guy he gets traded for.
The Oilers also have MBS who has shown some ability to pick 'em. Discounting that is a mistake.
I think if you give him a top 3 pick he is likely to give you an elite top 6 forward 95% of the time.
Further, the Oilers have an inability to hold onto guys hitting free agency. Even vets who are signed demand trades. Tambo has learned that and specifically designed his rebuild around that.
So the Oilers could get 3 years out of your trio before they go elsewhere. Meanwhile they could have had Girgornko/ Yakupov or whomever tearing up the league for the next 6 or 7 at an elite level.
Stafford is merely an average player who has had one season over 50 pts and has an injury history. Not any better than Gagner, in fact I like Sam better.
Sekera profiles as Smid with less grit and more offence.
Adam is a nice player.
In three years trading all of them for Yakupov would look bad for the Oilers.
Put it this way: Would you trade Hall or RNH for Sekera, Adam and Stafford?
I love intelligent analysis of hockey players, particularly when it's so intelligent that a last place team trades away it's chance for a generational talent, in order to prop up some very intelligent analysis which "proves" that it's a great idea.
ReplyDeleteSam Pollock used to have a few GM's that were similarly intelligent. They were so intelligent, that they'd routinely trade away their chance to get top picks in the draft to the Montreal Canadiens, who had so many excellent players to offer that it was obviously the right thing to do.
In the end the intelligent GM's of expansion teams would get their very good, established players to fill out their lineups, while the Habs meanwhile foolishly would assume all the risk, draft top players and go on to win cup after cup after cup.
Maybe Toonces is that intelligent, but so far he hasn't shown it. Brian Burke on the other hand...
On what basis do you say FA will not come to Edm?
ReplyDeleteCole, Roloson, Vanek, Heatley, Vishnovsky, Hossa, Pronger, Peca, Pitkanen. Thats just off the top of my head.
You can bet Tambo gets turned down a dozen times every July.
I agree that some more players may come to play with elite players once the Oilers start winning. But they don't have enough elite level players and they have not started winning.
With UFA free agency at 27 or 7 years, it is stupid to trade away a lottery pick, which is a free chance to get an elite player.
ReplyDeleteWhen you are in the bottom third of the league. the draft and value-for-money free agents are the way to go.
When you are a contender, then you bid for elite free agents, and trading 1st round draft picks.
I'm not saying the Oilers shouldn't bid for Suter on July 1, but the Suter's of the world are not likely to come until you are a contender built through the draft and with value-for-money free agents.
Voynov & Stoll for Hemsky & Belanger would be an excellent trade. Having Jarret Stoll back would be awesome and a considerable improvement over Belanger, while Vonvoy is the type of player the Oilers should want moving forward, a young up and coming defender who can compete in the NHL today.
ReplyDeleteAlmost any top UFA will love to come to Edmonton and play with a young, superlative up and coming team.
ReplyDeleteOilers currently have some of the pieces to make this happen. Unfortunately, what they don't appear to have is enough of them - yet.
Patience, Grasshopper!
Do I personally have the required patience? Absolutely not.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy - You should have a blog. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for you - and anyone else. If we assume that since the Tambi 3.0 moment (the I am really really in charge now and we are not replacing the recently injured Khabi and we are throwing the season announcement) that Tambellini planned on three consecutive lottery seasons (fully ignoring what he says for PR and team moral purposes), how is he doing? I don't mean at the lottery part, we know he is 'succeeding' at that. What I am wondering is how well has he done in terms of setting up the team and organization for success in the long run with the young talent?
Its a tough call. Are guys like Sutton being brought into fill a spot that will be filled with better NHL players in the future? Are guys like Foster, Brule, and Potter 'shot in the dark' players looking for that bargin success story (all while sucking enough to lose).
How can we evaluate a long term rebuild built upon a plan to get into the lottery for 3 years and then to compete?
Note - I am aware that in Year 1, the plan was to compete and that it wasn't the Fall for Hall until game 30 or so. Last year was a clear attempt to throw the season. This year, I think its tough to know if they were legitimately trying to compete, to improve, or to bomb.
Smacintyre on waivers...
ReplyDeleteOhpleasegodno.
Ducey, Hunter,
ReplyDeleteYou aren't factoring in the uncertainty that exists now.
Lets try it this way, as things stand we have a 10.7% chance at Yakupov. Or a 89.3% chance at Morgan Reilly or Matthew Dumba. One is possibly Guy Lafleur the other is possibly chopped liver. A minor winning streak of 4 or 5 games and we are in "who knows" territory not even in range for a Griffin Reinhardt. We also, coming from the 4 slot, have a 43% chance at a top6/top4. See Scott Cullen and Tom Awad.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=282241
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=187
So now you are telling me that an 89.3% shot at Morgan Reilly and a 10.7% chance at Grigorenko or Yakupov is worth more than a mid career second line right wing (3 and 1/2 years minimum), an early career 4D (3 and 1/2 years)who has already displaced Robyn Regher for those minutes, and a long term 2C with size who is proving himself in the NHL at a very young age (4 and 1/2 years)?
I suspect you both of assuming the season is over and also assuming the Oilers have a lock on the #1 (just try to remember even if that were the case it still only gives us a 48.2% chance of picking #1). Not to mention that Grigorenko is now challenging Yakupov for #1 (even ahead of him on some polls) and Murray is #3 and rising even with that horrible semi-final game. So you can see this isn't Guy Lafleur we are talking about where there was consensus (or Denis Potvin or Mario Lemiuex).
RNH and Hall have begun to prove themselves as players and thus have more value than they did on draft day. Morgan Reilly is an unknown with a 43% chance of being good to great. We have no basis on which to judge our current scouts - for all we know Seguin was better than Hall. Sophomore with the best plus minus in hockey, plays center, yup might be a useful piece all right. I love Hall and wouldn't trade him but it is possible that MBS is now 1 for 2 with picking the best player available with a #1, it is certainly arguable.
ovessin - disease where we worry about missing the next great Russian
There's two things about Tom renney we know: he prefers speed (Stortini, MacIntyre) and is happy enough with Hordichuk to pass on Orr when he was on waivers.
ReplyDeleteIf you asked an elite D man with a modicum of sense whether they wanted to play 5 years in Detroit with no Nik Lidstrom, a 34 yr old Datsyuk and a 32 yr old Zetterberg or Hall, Eberle and RNH ...... they would pick Edm if they wanted to play in a couple of SCF
ReplyDeleteNo one in Oiler management believed they would be in the lottery this year. They are just really that bad at managing
@lowetide,
ReplyDeleteDid Renney pass on Colton Orr ? Or did Olczyk look at the fact Orr has another $1M year on his contract ? And still makes $1M in the AHL.
Big Mac is making $600K and then is a UFA. His AHL salary is $105K.
A would agree that Orr is a more useful player than Big Mac.
@ vor:
ReplyDeleteWith respect, anyone who has won consistently at cards understands the principle of letting the other guy beat himself. In other words, the world is full of gamblers, and gambling is a bad thing to do, since it's in effect putting a certain thing(the stake) up to chance. And chance being a fickle mistress means that almost invariably the long odds gamble fails.
Lowe gambled when he traded a chance to get Parise, for the chance to get two players(Pouliot/Jacques). Lowe has further proven himself to be an absolute idiot, giving Moreau/Pisani/Horcoff ridiculous paydays, as well as the 4 1sts for Vanek offer.
Lowe's spitefulness has given the Oilers a stench that still permeates the NHL. In true small town fashion, he's managed to convince a lot of Edmontonians that it's the cities fault, not his. Lowe has his good points, but overall I believe he's poison to the Oilers.
The California Seals could have had Guy Lafleur, but in their haste traded this right away and ended up helpless on draft day when the SC champion Habs selected Guy Lafleur.
Tell me: Do you honestly think any team that has Lowe in charge can be trusted to trade down in the draft?
Also: Do you honestly think New Jersey's GM would prefer two inferior players, to the chance of obtaining one superior player?
This could go on forever.
Fernando Pisani apparently declining to report to his Swedish Elite League team, on the basis that he's not at a a level at which he can contribute.
ReplyDeleteA would agree that Orr is a more useful player than Big Mac.
ReplyDeleteI would agree with almost any sentence that ends in 'is a more useful player than Big Mac.
Sorry, not even SEL - the level below that.
ReplyDeleteI would agree with almost any sentence that ends in 'is a more useful player than Big Mac.
ReplyDelete9-11 was an inside job, and Oprah Winfrey is a more useful player than Big Mac?
Okay, Bookie - whatever you say.
@Steve Smith,
ReplyDeleteI think bookie was thinking of going for a Big Mac and large fries ... LOL
I would agree with almost any sentence that ends in going for a Big Mac and large fries
ReplyDeletePlatinum Blonde sums up this and every other Oilers pre-game thought to come:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4SOnBDe7qs
Without looking, I'm guessing 'it doesn't really matter'
ReplyDeleteKlefbom speculating on coming to North America next year
ReplyDeleteWorld Junior Allstar Dmen Age they entered NHL
2006:
Luc Bourdon (19) 6'2"
Jack Johnson (19) 6'1"
2007:
Erik Johnson(19) 6'5"
Kris Letang(19) 6'0"
2008:
Hedman: (19)
Doughty: (19)
2009:
Erik Karlsson(19) 5'11"
PK Subban(20) 6'0"
2010:
PIETRANGELO(18) 6'3"
John carlson(19) 6"3"
2011:
Ryan Ellis(20) 5'10"
Orlov(20) 6'0"
2012:
gormley (?) 6'2"
Klefbolm (?) 6'3"
And playing third pair with Petry.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteNo disprespect, if you don't understand odds then you shouldn't be playing cards, at least not for money. That isn't to say there aren't times, in certain games (poker, for example) where you can use ignoring the odds as a powerful asset in a strategy like bluffing. On the other hand in games like 21 going against the odds is called the gambler's fallacy or bankrupt.
The thing is you and I we have no access to the personal interactions of GMs around the league. Thus the only tools we have are math and seen him good (or bad). The thing is most of us want the pretty bauble because the media tells us it is a pretty bauble.
Ryan Suter or Shea Weber by themselves won't win a Stanley Cup for us next year, and in short order all our great young players will need massive wage hikes and we will be in the Chicago plan all right. We will just have skipped over the winning the Stanley Cup part straight to the dismantling the team part. So even next year we will be trying to find cheap real NHL players to fill holes.
I get the fact you think Lowe is actually Jack the Ripper and Tambellini is DB Cooper but that just means they will be equally bad at any strategy including drafting, where as we know they have considerable input into who goes #1 each year.
Marc,
ReplyDeleteIf you think that Hemsky is an actual NHL player, I don't see how you can look at these numbers and doubt that Jones is too.
Hemsky is an NHL player, and elite one too. He is having a terrible year. Everyone who likes him fear that the shoulder surgeries may have changed him. I hope not.
To compare Jones' best year to a horrid one by Hemsky and say "see, he's good" is just wrong, and you probably know that.
A few stats culled from LT's mid year review:
5x5/60 forwards
Jones 1.76
Hemsky 1.52
Corry Perry 1.36
Ryan Getzlaft 1.26
Great year by Jones by this metric so far. 6th among Oiler fowards way more than I expected.
Hemsky is having a very bad year, so are Perry and Getzlaf. Doesn't mean that Jones is better.
5x4/60 forwards
Jones 6.25
Hemsky 2.62
I was going to grind LT about this.
Jones's TOI/60 is 0.70/60, or too little to make the list. Most people cut off at 1.5 or even 2.
He's 11th in TOI/60 among forwards, so in other words, he doesn't play the power play often and the sample should be thrown out due to lack of size to be meaningful.
CORSI REL/forwards
Hemsky 12.8
Jones 1.1
The number, the better.
Hemsky is 2/14, Jones is 8/14. This starts to show what I don't like about Jones, but its not terrible.
ZONE START/forwards
Jones 43.4
Hemsky 54.6
Jones got to eat the same dirt Horcoff was getting all year. Best surprise of his game is not getting buried when he played toughs with 10 & 94.
QUAL COMP/forwards
Hemsky 0.036
Jones -0.027
Hmmm. I see different QC numbers.
Hemsky is 3/14, Jones is 7/14. Opposing coaches almost always put out their top pair D vs. Hemsky. Even when 93/14/4 were tearing it up, they rarely saw top pairing D when Hemsky was in the lineup.
Penalty Kill:
Jones - In your comment here:
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/12/21/lennart-petrell-is-earning-his-keep-on-the-vastly-improved-oilers-penalty-kill/
you posted stats that show Jones allowing the lowest GA/60 of any Oiler penalty killer whilst having the second highest TOI/60 4v5. He also leads the team in short handed goals.
Hemsky - Doesn't kill penalties.
Jones' best asset this year is his penalty killing (and higher shooting % than Stamkos)
Salary:
Hemsky $4.1M
Jones $1.5M
And Getzlag and Perry make more and Jones has better underlying numbers than them too. Players are paid on their history and Hemsky has earned that $ by being a 0.80pts/gm over his career.
vor: Thanks for the advice. It stinks, but thanks anyway.
ReplyDeletewhere you can use ignoring the odds as a powerful asset in a strategy like bluffing.
ReplyDeleteI used to make a reasonable portion of my income playing poker.
You certainly do not ignore odds when bluffing.
Often bluffs work best when you have position and your range of hands you put the opponent on includes many weak ones, and your betting pattern should show more strength than his range.
Good bluffs don't just come out of no where, they are sometimes the best option given how the hand has played out and the range you have your opponent on.
All those present who consider it a good use of time and effort to debate things with Hunter? Not so fast, Woodguy.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the Oiler's record been since Kevin Lowe's 1st season as GM?
ReplyDeleteI was listening to Spector's show last week (I believe that Principe was the guest) and they were discussing how Tambo has been doing a great job with this rebuild because the organization was in shambles when he took the over and he had to start from scratch. The fact that the guy who was responsible for the shambles was still employed by the team and in fact, received a promotion, was never mentioned.
Lowe was one of my favorite players when I was a kid but he's been a disaster as an executive and there really aren't very many positives that can be said about him.
Btw, I don't agree that Tambo has done a great job. Just found it funny that they act like Lowe isn't responsible for how far this organization has fallen since he took over.
ReplyDeleteHall flying in that first period-he's the only reason to watch this team right now.
ReplyDeleteSS,
ReplyDeleteMy response was to vor, not Hunter.
Bookie,
Thanks for the blog comment (I think..)
No way I could keep a blog going.
No way anyone would read it.
I prefer to sleep on LT's couch (C&B and ON occasionally too) than get my own place.
Luckily, he hasn't told me to get a job or my own place yet.
This line, this Hall, Hemsky, and Gagner line - I say not bad.
ReplyDeleteAaron Ward and the TSN panel really giving it to Hemsky-take it for what's it worth.It's unfortunate that's the word on the street re: Hemsky but there it is.
ReplyDeleteLowetide: Watching the Devil's broadcast, and they're about to interview Tom Gulitti the team's number one blogger!!
ReplyDeleteAlways exciting to see new developments like this.
Extrapolating this to the Oilers...
Does anyone know if Rexall Place has signed up for the internet yet?
PS: I don't know which Oiler is the most popular in these parts, but for my money it's got to be Taylor Hall. The guy is like a bull out there.
SS,
ReplyDeleteMy response was to vor, not Hunter.
Its entirely possible I missed your point.
Often you say things and I'm not exactly sure what they mean.
Horcoff is flying out there, too. He has the odd game where he's everywhere at once.
ReplyDeleteThis is another mess of a game so far. Slow and ugly.
What a wonderful shot selection from Belanger. It's a wonder he only has one goal this year.
Often you say things and I'm not exactly sure what they mean.
ReplyDeleteTo state is more clearly: You often say things and I'm not sure they mean what I think they mean. :)
Nice goal by the Devils there, have to hand it to them. NJ isn't going to get much done this season but hell they're working hard.
ReplyDeleteBelanger hung Petry out to dry there. He should not be on the half wall on the PP distributing the puck.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff is flying but accomplishing what exactly?
ReplyDeletethis is awful
ReplyDeletecrushing my spirit
Belanger should not be in the NHL but Petry fucked up there....again!
ReplyDeleteBelanger has the offensive instincts of a sofa cushion.
ReplyDeleteI see we're back to the ol' familiar powerplay where Hemsky hangs on to the puck while his teammates stand motionless behind the other teams players. Eberle's not here, guys!
Horcoff may not be accomplishing much but it's good to see the hustle from the captain in a game like this.
Clarkenstein...Petry did not eff up. Belanger telegraphed that pass and Kovalchuk could jump all over Petry. Petry had NO TIME AND NO SPACE.
ReplyDeleteThat goal is all on Belanger.
Am I seeing things, or did Kytnar just play that entire shift as a defenceman.
ReplyDeleteWG - Yes it was meant as a compliment, not some abstract and unclear backhanded insult or something.
ReplyDeleteI went back and did an analysis of LT's last 30 blog posts and in all but 4 instances, you wrote more words in total in the comments than LT did in the blog post + comments. Much of what you wrote was detailed with stats, etc, so ergo, the suggestion of a blog.
Disclaimer - I did no such analysis and it's probably not at all true. However, you have been rather prolific as of late so I suspect that your business is going uber well as of late and you have started to have a lot of free time OR you have simply let things fall apart around you while you spend all of your time on the internet posting on LT's site.
Gagner's starting to play really well, like he was doing during preseason.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMy mistake then. Not a Petry fan. Can you tell?
ReplyDelete"Stan Weir spends another season parked in the garage."???
ReplyDeleteLots of try from the kid Hall tonight. My wish would be to see Hemsky match Kovalchuk with beauty of his own in the third. Maybe being down a goal is 'the plan' tonight - working with a lead the last few games hasn't exactly been the ticket.
NOTB, Stan Weir is the Chuck Norris of Oilers playoff hockey. Stan Weir, and his beard, have no interest in lottery picks.
ReplyDeleteHell of a shift by 83, 4, 89, 58 and 25. Why can't the PP have that kind of movement....
ReplyDeleteThx Danny... 'the most interesting man in the world' Stan Weir .
ReplyDeleteAnd there you go... Hemmer with a ripper!!
Anyone watching the game have any comments on Larsson? We could be watching him on our blueline. I haven't heard or seen anything on him or Landeskog for the Calder this year.
ReplyDeleteBut will he shoot again this year. I think that about uses up 83's shot quota.
ReplyDeletewhere's that guy from the last GD thread who assured me petry would be fine and a new t.v.?
ReplyDeletei'm patiently waiting for both.
Ryan Jones would have scored that goal better.
ReplyDeleteWho's the new guy.... #83?
ReplyDeleteWho's the new guy.... #83?
ReplyDeleteYou wouldn't like him: he's good at hockey.
Will be a real collective kick in the teeth to this team if they can't at least collect a Betman point tonight.
ReplyDelete@ AussieOiler, tsn.ca is streaming the game.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Larsson is concerned, he's been pretty invisible in a good way. Just making the right, safe play. Not much in the way of offense, and his passing seems to be to the man, not to the tape. A little harder on the forwards to pick up, but overall he's pretty impressive for a teenager.
Has anyone seen Larsson's eye glow?
ReplyDeleteIf I am Hemsky I want the hell OUT of Edmonton (Even though that's probably short-sighted). Losing is so lame.
ReplyDeletePetry's passing is elite already
ReplyDeletePotter is signed for two years - it makes sense that he starts to make Ethan Moreau plays like that.
ReplyDeletesmid with a unusual block attempt there.
ReplyDeletea certainly wouldn't describe laddy as cerebral.
not the worst game of the season though.
Oh Ziggy... will you ever win. Liked the try tonight... but it's still just ELPH.
ReplyDeleteLoving Teubert in 2 years
ReplyDeletetuebert will turn out imo.
ReplyDeleteFor crips sake. Is it that hard to cover one guy? Kovalchuk didn't score that one but he started the play with the ever familiar shot from the circles. Disgusting.
ReplyDeleteWe all expected this was going to be a roller coaster of a season but most of the fun parts of this years ride are currently broken.
ReplyDeleteThe Chicago model:
ReplyDelete1. Tank in season 1, get lottery pick.
2. Keep lottery pick out of NHL during season 2.
3. Tank in season 2, get lottery pick.
4. Debut both lottery picks in season 3. During season 3, tie for ninth in the conference, three points out of a playoff spot.
5. During season 4, finish fourth in the conference (third by points, but of course the divisional leaders take the top three spots).
6. During season 5, win the conference and the Stanley Cup.
The Oilers are currently in season 3. They are not going to tie for ninth in the conference, which already puts them well behind the pace. Additionally, during season 5 (the Cup season), our first lottery pick will already be getting paid, which puts us at a disadvantage relative to Chicago.
I will be copying and posting this whenever any commenter
i. compares us to Chicago, or
ii. suggests that repeatedly tanking is an inevitable path to being good.
So Steve, you are saying that the Oilers will have one more young top talent on the roster + will a highly paid top talent before Chicago did.
ReplyDeleteAre you suggesting 'Better than the Chicago Model'?¡
So Steve, you are saying that the Oilers will have one more young top talent on the roster...
ReplyDeleteNext year, yes. Year after that, it will be two. And so on.
OR you have simply let things fall apart around you while you spend all of your time on the internet posting on LT's site
ReplyDeletePretty much.
Thought the best Oilers were 4, 83, 35, 89, 94, 58.
4,89, 83 with another strong game against good NHL checkers and D.
Oiler have that line, their checking line, then as was mentioned on TSN, a 3rd line with 2 goals all year, then an ECHLer, a fighter and an Eager. (although those 3 did have a very good shift, given who they are)
Not tough to shut down a one line team with one Real NHL Dman.
Oilers will pick 2nd in the draft.
Book it.
Post allstar break lineup (no additions other then injured folk returning)
ReplyDeleteHall-Gagner-Hemsky
MPS-RNH-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-Jones
Eager-Belanger-Lander
Would be nice to see MPS with skilled players. 2 scoring lines, and 2 checking lines. Best we can do I suppose.
woodguy
ReplyDeletei think the odds are high that the Oilers pick second in the draft. So would you take Grigorenko or a dman?
also, do you folks agree with me that RNH/Eberle need a LW that is not currently in the organization? Some sort of power forward, Hartnell/MAlone/Penner/Doan? I wonder if the Oilers could get one of them.
Who knows, maybe it is Grigorenko, given the way Gagner plays with Hall and Hemsky.
Ashley, if you are reading this, could you please give us your current outlook on Whitney, and, if you don't mind me asking, are you a male or female, and are you a doctor. If so, a gp or some sort of ankle specialist?
thanks to all for this comments section, best place on the internet for the Oilers fans.
Although i love the articles at COH.
Grigorenko and its not close.
ReplyDeleteCam Cole on Mark Spector's show today basically said that:
1) Tambellini has done nothing other than pick two obvious first round picks. Hasn't built a team around the kids.
2) Likes Renney, thinks he should stay
3) Thinks the window of winning with a young group is much smaller than people think and that looking at teams like PIT you see your young guys get older, get injuries and windows close in a hurry.
I remember reading Cole in the Journal.
Edmonton lost a good one when he left.
Hope he writes this in a column and the Journal runs it, they run some of his stuff sometimes as he writes for the same chain.
@ WG.
ReplyDeleteCam Cole was a huge loss to the Edmonton sports "journalism" community when he packed up and left for the coast.
He, along with John Short, are really the only two individuals who IMO were worthy of calling them selves journalists and things have only deteriorated since they left.
His comments today are bang on.
The "Dale Tallon Model" ® is the one that actually works.
count me as a huge fan of Cam Cole. Can't stand that John Mackinnon, he knows less than most here.
ReplyDeleteFWIW I think Jones at the Sun is not afraid to ask the tough questions and is fairly perceptive.
Woodguy, if you draft Grigorenko, what do you do with Gagner. And if you are Tambellini would you try to sign Penner back here? I would love to see DP play with RNH and Eberle. I feel bad for the big man with these pancake jokes. As many here know, he was an outscorer and outchancer here most of the time despite appearing slow due to his size. I thnk he became more consistent as time went on, and that if the Oilers had two legit scoring lines, as they would, he would score 30 again.
DSF since you are never wrong, if the Oilers pick second should they draft Grigorenko and if so what should they do to improve their brutalblue?
ReplyDeleteOn Penner, I also thought he appeared to be genuinely disappointed that he was traded, and I bet if the Oilers showed interest so would he, especially since there probably won't be much interest in him. I am thinking two years 4 million (two million per year) would get him considering his terrible season so far. Kind of like Detroit getting Bert to a value deal.
ReplyDeleteWith Hemsky's 4th goal of the season he is now tied for 270th in league goal scoring with notables such as Ben Eager, Brad Winchester, Shawn Thornton, and Jan Hejda.
ReplyDeleteOne more goal and he will tie the likes of Maxim Lapierre, and Sam Gagner.
Two more goals will put him in the Tootoo, Joey Crabb range.
3 more goals and he will be rubbing shoulders with Derek Dorsett and Chris Neil.
Nice to see MPS put in the exact same position that he previously failed in. Belanger and MPS clearly have zero chemistry. Normally I would blame the GM who signed a scrub like Belanger but Renney was talking him up on how well he navigates the ice(moves hands all around).
It can be argued that Belanger was the right move when Edmonton signed him (I would disagree) but its obvious that he doesn't mesh well with the younger players.
I wouldn't even care but Tambellini gave him a 3 year contract which means he will be on the team until his contract expires.
Here is scoutmans1 early look into 2015 prospects:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=1075213
Traktor, i think Belanger is tradeable and could even get you a fourth rounder. Not that Tambo will do that..
ReplyDeleteUNtil next season when I hope the Oilers get some sort of power forward I would love to see them give MP a chance at LW with RNH and Eberle for 10-12 games. MP really needs to work on 2-3 moves to go to the net, and improve his shot. Its accuracy, strength, and release.
@ oilersfan
ReplyDeleteI've been wrong plenty of times.
On Terry Jones...yes he does sometimes ask tough questions but I think he has an agenda that often clouds his judgement.
It's way too early to be picking and choosing who the Oilers should select in the draft IMO.
The consensus that forms over the course of a season is often wrong so I think it's wise to take a peak at who is rapidly gaining ground rather than just nod at the front runners.
With half a season to go, it's not unreasonable to think that a player who has been all but ignored will rocket up the rankings and surprise.
Huberdeau was that kind of player last season and a former Hockey Canada player development guy (also a former OHL GM)who I spent a few hours with in the summer was, and is, convinced that he will ultimately be the best player from last year's draft.
Fixing the woeful blueline is a huge challenge since, IMO, the Oilers are in desperate need of 3 top six defensemen.
Whitney was a nice idea but no GM worth his salt should have traded an elite defenseman for that kind of risk. I expect he's done.
Most successful teams are built from the back end out and while the Oilers wait on some of their D prospects to mature into their likely roles as 3-6 defensemen, Hall, Eberle, RNH and next year's wunderkind will be rotting in the desert sun.
As WG reports, Cam Cole pretty much nails this when he says Tambellini has failed to surround these kids with the support, especially on D and in goal, with the kind of talent that will help them be successful in Edmonton.
I'm afraid, failing a Tambellini visit to Lourdes, that he doesn't grasp this.
If you really want to start fixing it I think Taylor Hall and/or the Oilers first have to be on the table.
Stockpiling a bunch of high end forwards while the rest of the team is shit is a recipe for failure and will lead to huge cap problems and little upward mobility.
The window is much smaller than the Oilers brain trust thinks.
Blogger oilersfan said...
ReplyDelete"UNtil next season when I hope the Oilers get some sort of power forward I would love to see them give MP a chance at LW with RNH and Eberle for 10-12 games. MP really needs to work on 2-3 moves to go to the net, and improve his shot. Its accuracy, strength, and release."
You mean all the things he should have learned in junior hockey?
I want to rephrase an earlier question in a more effective way.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers GM all of the sudden were replaced at the end of the year following a lottery pick with a highly competent GM, is it likely that the team would be competitive in two years?
In other words, can the holes in the roster around the young talent be filled in with trades and free agent signings in the short term? (Note - if the GM were highly competent)
or is the team simply saddled with 3-4 great talents and a sad sack sack of nothing.
Sorry if its been posted, but I hope you have all seen the Open Letter From Dustin Penner on Pancakegate
ReplyDeleteKinda makes me miss that guy.
@ bookie
ReplyDeleteAs Tallon has demonstrated, it can actually be fixed in one offseason but you need to have big balls, no fear and a vision.
For example, everyone short of Tambellini knew last offseason that the Oilers needed a massive upgrade on D, so he went out and acquired Sutton, Barker and Potter all the while relying on Whitney to be a HHOF candidate.
Tallon acquired Campbell and Jovanovski which allows his coach to bring Kulikov, Gudbranson and Ellerby along more slowly than would otherwise be the case.
Tallon started the process by purging his team of players who weren't going to be around for the long haul.
On the Oilers roster they are pretty easy to spot...Hemsky, Horcoff, Belanger, Hordichuk, Eager, Whitney, Sutton, Barker.
All can be replaced by better players for less money.
But, as you can see from that list, the Oilers are going the wrong way.
WG, DSF
ReplyDeletecouldn't agree more w/r/t cole. he wrote for the journal in my much younger years in edmonton but I did not appreciate how good a journalist he was until my last stint in vancouver.
wish he was back in edmonton asking the tough/right questions.
Atta boy Ales, keep bumping that trade value up!
ReplyDelete@ Book;e:
ReplyDeleteThis team is only 2 years away with some good player management and aquisitions in the offseason. The biggest problem the Oilers have right now is:
#1 D is oft injured - 4M salary wasted
Additional problems include:
Coach trying to build a traditional lineup (S1-S2-CL-EL) with players better suited to a scoring lineup (S1-S2-CL-S3)
Bottom 6 players no producing offense (the Belanger-Hordichuk Effect)
Lack of Size/Power forward in the top 9.
Cam Barker.
Not already signing Hemsky to a value contract while his value is at its lowest ever in his career.
This isn't rocket surgery - He's what I would do:
Give direction to Renney that he's to play the team with 3 scoring lines, or he can find another job. Also, that he's to carry 8 defenseman, and 13 forwards.
Sign Hemsky to an extension - 1 Year 3-4M
Sign Smyth (4M) and Gagner (3M)
Make a play for Zack Parise - if he'll come for less than 5.5M per, sign him - 1 year.
Consider signing Dustin Penner - no more than 2.75M per. Offer him a spot on LW w/RNH & Ebs
Trade a conditional 1st (Condition being that the pick is not top 3 - if it is, the pick becomes a 2nd this year and the 1st next year), Pajaarvi, and Peckham (or a forward prospect not from finland) for a signed Weber/Sutter.
See what the asking price on Bobby Ryan is - use him as a backup plan.
Get Belanger some consistent linemates, or get rid of him.
Send Hordichuk on his merry way.
Find a good bottom pairing D-man who has the ability to step up into the top 4 in case of injury. Maybe Sutton?
Consider an upgrade in net.
Go into next season with:
Possible Lineup:
Cap Total (Penner & Parise): 67M
Cap Total (Ryan & Penner): 66M
Cap Total (No forwad signings & hole @ 2LW): 59M
4M Hall 3M Gagner 4M Hemsky
3M Penner / 5.1M Ryan / 5.5M Parise 4M RNH 1M Eberle
4M SMyth 5.5M Horcoff 5.5M Parise/ 1.5M Jones / 3M Penner
2 M Omark 1 M Lander 1 M Harski/ Jones 1.5M
1 M Eager
7 M Weber/Sutter- 4 M Whitney???
4 M Gilbert - 2 M Smid
1 M Potter- 2 M (???)
1 M Petry- 1 M Teubert
4 M Khabbi
1 M Dubnyk
Question Marks: Klefbom?
That lineup won't make it to the SCF, but it would be playoff bound. A nice run of luck, and an aquisition at the deadline could/ should land a home playoff date.