By the time Klefbom, Marincin and others arrive to help Peckham and Petry, the kids up front will be paid in full. For a team that has used the offer sheet in the not too distant past, would an offer sheet for Drew Doughty make sense?
Monday, September 26, 2011
Would You Offer Sheet Doughty?
By the time Klefbom, Marincin and others arrive to help Peckham and Petry, the kids up front will be paid in full. For a team that has used the offer sheet in the not too distant past, would an offer sheet for Drew Doughty make sense?
Four firsts is a steep price to pay for any player. Even more so when you factor in it's the Edmonton Oilers the Kings would get them from.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, it would be hilarious to put the screws to Lombardi again this offseason.
If we weren't a team so heavily affected by the draft, I'd say go for it. We're not the Leaves however, so I'm against it.
You can go up to 7.5M and pay in two 1st rd picks, a 2nd and a 3rd.
ReplyDeleteI'm in favour of Vanek-style offer-sheets, especially to western conference teams - that is, offer sheets that overpay the player, but are all-but-certain to be matched.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to give up some very good draft picks for the privilege of paying a very good player a little above market value, which is what any unmatched Oilers offer sheet to Doughty would look like.
It's not a bad tactic - you offer $7.5 and
ReplyDeletea) get a very good player who can likely push the team out of the top 10 picks anyway or
b) cause your rival some cap trouble
(a la SJ and Hjalmarsson)
If the average is less than $6.2 million then the Oilers would have to give up a first, a second and a third.
ReplyDeleteIf between $6,268,176 to $7,835,219 then they give up Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick.
Above $7,835,220 equals Four first-round picks
So anything more than $6.2 million is almost certainly going to cut off the rebuild. I can't see Doughty settling for less (I think $5.8 M is on the table from LA)
Frankly, this team is so young and so far from contention that bringing in Doughty isn't going to make much difference. Even with Doughty, you need a goaler, another shutdown Dman, and lots of time.
And, all of the sudden the Cap becomes an issue.
Pass.
I know he's young and he's very good, but I'd rather stay the course with the D-men we have coming. $7.5 over term is big coin when you consider we have at least 4 guys in the next 3-4 years who project to need contracts in the range of $3.5 (MPS) to $6m (Hall).
ReplyDeletePlus, you'd have to move some money first (Horcoff, Khabi, etc) and eliminates any chance of re-signing Hemsky.
Despite everyone always threatening "payback" for these kind of things, I think in two years time, when Hall, Ebs, and MPS go RFA, it might be the first time we are vulnerable to such an act.
I'm not sure I'd do it but if Doughty is the real deal that would solve a lot of things. You'd have to give up some of the forwards when their salary needs became to dear.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing is that poor Dean Lombardi has suffered enough this summer at the hands of the Oilers.
I don't want him thinking badly of us.
On one hand with the players we need to sign soon I cant see them doing it. On the other, we've seen Chicago effectively lock up the players who matter.
ReplyDeleteDoughty would bring the "Pronger effect" to the Oilers where every other dman looks that little bit better. F**k another long season outside the playoffs. F**k Dean Lombardi. Do it!
Leaving aside considerations of whether Doughty is even worth 7.5+ million, and whether he would actually sign in Edmonton for that amount, I wouldn't because of the effect it might have on the assets we currently possess.
ReplyDeleteSuch a move would place a huge bullseye on Hall, Eberle, and Paajarvi. It also sends the wrong message to our talent, suggesting that they should eschew taking a few less dollars to fit within a competitive team salary structure. And lastly, adding 7.5+ million dollars would require Tambellini to clear cap space in the form of high priced veterans. Nobody wants Khabibulin, so that leaves Horcoff, Gilbert, and Whitney (being the highest cap hits on the team with one or more season under contract).
With the team currently as is, it's simply not a good idea. Then again, perhaps that is a greater criticism of the team as is.
Frankly I think Lombardi has his fingers crossed hoping someone does throw an offer sheet at Doughty.
ReplyDeleteHe matches, gets his stud defenceman back again and no more of the bullshit.
No.
ReplyDeleteWe're already asking for Gagner, Hall, Eberle, Pajaarvi, and any of a dozen youngsters to get offered as a result of the Vanek fiasco.
Moreover, I really don't want a player who puts himself so far above his team. As if what he's being offered isn't enough.
Bad Wojo:
ReplyDeleteI don't believe for a second that this is Doughty's play. This stalemate is 100% Don "they'll never trade you, Smytty" Meehan. Unquestioned.
Moose:
ReplyDeleteUltimately, the player makes the call.
Don Meehan (and Ritch Winters) are douchebags, but it's the player who chooses the agent, the player who agrees to an offer.
I'd do it at $7,835,219 for the term Doughty is looking for (rumoured to be 5 years) because:
ReplyDeletea) If the Kings walk away we get a great young d-man to build around for the price of two firsts, a second and a third (if Ducey correct)
b) If they match, the Kings have to pay him more than they want, and (huge plus) don't get any of his UFA years.
We can't continue to collect lottery picks indefinitely, this teams needs to take a substantial step forward. Plus it screws Lombardi.
LT:
ReplyDeleteThe cutoff's at 7.5 now? Guess it's been a while since I checked that. Thanks.
JonK:
Way I see it, the kid forwards will be MORE likely to take a discount to play here if we go out and acquire a Doughty. A move like that shows the players that management is committed to building a championship-winning team. It certainly wouldn't seem to me like I was unimportant were I Hall/Eberle etc. My logic there would be "Hey, these guys believe in us. They gave us an elite D-man to help our core players. I want to be around this organization that thinks progressively."
- Which mean's it'll never fucking happen.
Bad Wojo:
ReplyDeleteOf course, in theory, that is true. But you think it was Ryan Smyth's call to leave then?
Ultimately, when dumb hockey players (sorry, but that's what they are) pay someone to give them advice, they are going to take it. Just like Meehan whispered in Ryan's ear that they'd never trade the face of the franchise, he's telling Drew that they will cave.
Just posted from LA beat writer:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/09/kings-drew-doughty-nhl-dean-lombardi-hockey-tim-leiweke.html
It's one, maybe two, years too early for a couple of reasons.
ReplyDelete(1) The picks the Oilers would give up would likely be too valuable in comparison to the difference between Doughty and the D the Oilers could get via offer sheet if they wait until summer 2012/13.
(2) Salary structure/putting a target on your back, etc. If teams like BUF or LA want to be vindictive and throw a ton at Hall or Eberle, well, not much you can do, but IF going after Doughty causes all 29 other teams to take a shot at you, it could be too big a price to pay.
If you're going to go the offer sheet route, maybe it makes more sense to get to next summer, tie up all the guys you can to extensions, and then go after players once your exposure is reduced/eliminated.
Then again, new CBA rules could change everything, so who knows what sort of inside info the Oilers might have to consider that we don't have access to.
Let's see... way under the cap, billionaire owner, vast need at the position, and another way to cheese off Lombardi.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention, move up the ladder to contention a year or two early (not this year)
I'd do it.
As for the worry about cap room in 2 years - that will shake itself out. The players will determine who gets the big contracts by their performance.
Why doesn't anyone discuss the option of a good old time hockey trade? Our cap problems will begin once we need to start paying the young forwards. So why not trade some young forwards?
ReplyDeletePaajarvi? Omark? Hartikanen? Why not discuss a trade with some of these names? I'm not saying we should or shouldn't. I'm just asking, why isn't anyone talk about it?
Moose, I don't want players stupid enough to listen to a guy like Don Meehan in that case.
ReplyDeleteIt's that simple.
Besides, we offer sheet Doughty, we lose Hall, or Eberle, or MPS, or somebody. Or more than one.
Bad Wojo: Well, fair enough. I think we're on the same page.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, a GM needs to stand up to RFAs sooner or later. Qualify him and then bury him for a year.
ReplyDeleteI give props to Lombardi on this.
He's already giving Doughty a magnificent offer. What is it? 8x6.8? Almost $55M. This with the possibility of injuries, or Doughty slacking off, or who knows what happening in the meantime. Doughty wants to hit UFA status as soon as he can. Great, what's he going to earn, $2-5M more than he would by signing this contract?
Screw the selfish little rat. It's a cap world - winning teams need to keep their core at a reasonable price. Doughty obviously doesn't understand that, or care enough about winning.
Wonder what Ryan Smyth would think?
ReplyDeleteBad Wojo: To be fair to Doughty, I believe that the sticking point isn't money but term.
ReplyDeleteLombardi wants him to give up some UFA years while Doughty wants his contract limited to 5 years.
If so (these are, after all just rumours floating around) I have to side with the player. 5 years of your professional career is a exceedingly reasonable commitment to your current team.
If you don't want to commit to a single organisation for close to a decade, you shouldn't have to.
L.T,
ReplyDeleteBrownlee posted the same thing at ON 50 min after you posted this. Tell him to quit mowing your lawn! :) (I know, OS'ing Doughty is hardly a unique idea)
For everyone who fears a retribution OS on Oiler RFA's: Any GM predisposed to doing that will do it anyway and I doubt OS'ing Doughty will change that, except maybe with Lombardi.
Quite the article from the LA times.
By all accounts coming back from Doughty's cap the impase is over term, not $.
Doughty doesn't want to sign away any of his UFA years, and I don't blame him. Doesn't make him a bad team mate or want to win less either.
The problem with the Kings offer is term, not dollars.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a mistake for Doughty to sign a contract longer than 5 years, unless the dollar figure is much closer to the max salary.
Katz needs AEG as a business partner to make the arena district a success, so I figure there is no way they offer sheet Doughty. It would have to be a team who doesn't need to be friends with Anschutz.
I also think that it is too early in the rebuild to make the move for a defenseman. Strategically, it would be better to go for a UFA in a couple of years after Hall and Nugent-Hopkins and company have been inked to second contracts.
If the forward core is locked up, the Hamhuis's of the world will be interested in coming as UFA's.
There are going to be lots of UFA available in a couple of years. This super long contract thing is just a phase. The high end players who signed them are beginning to be screwed by the NHLPA triggering the 5% cap escalator every year. With Stamkos's deal, and Doughty playing hardball, unless the team is offering near max salary, the agents are going to insist on limited duration.
We'd all be a lot happier if the next CBA was restructured so that player loyalty (longer commitments in the heart of their careers) was rewarded with a cap float allowance permitting the team to shift cap dollars into the future to keep a strong nucleus together during their prime years.
ReplyDeleteA bit of cap float for well-managed continuity isn't going to crush any franchise up against the wall of suck, despair, and faithlessness during the rebuild years.
Paying twenty million less than the big spenders when no one on your roster is over the age of 23 is normal enough anyway. A little more cluster loyalty would nicely offset a little less cap parity in any given season.
Doughty might be a daring move if the CBA anvil was little less dire. But I don't see it with the CBA as presently constituted.
I think Godot has nailed it - and this is why I don't see an offer sheet.
ReplyDeleteThe concern all along has not been dollars as much as it has been term. Does not make sense to offer sheet someone who doesn't want to make a long-term committment when you look at what you are giving up. Especially when it costs you picks and the ability to resign key components.
I think this also is why the Kings have a little advantage in this...accept for the fact that they are better w/Doughty on the ice than off.
I agree that you shouldn't HAVE to commit to a single organisation over the long term, but that's what trade requests are for.
ReplyDeleteAs for term, LA is taking a major risk by offering him that many years.
There's the matter of injuries (common for defencemen). There's the risk that he stops developing, or regresses, or gets satisfied with the contract, or loses respect for the coach.
It's not just a deal that benefits one side.
I personally thought the Stamkos deal was overkill, and I'm not a fan of Doughty getting more. They're RFAs, their negotiating power is limited. They earn more in a year than most people earn in a lifetime. LA may be a huge market, but at some point, the people buying $350 "authentic" jerseys and $100 nosebleed tickets have to feel insulted by a little shit throwing away $55M because "I don't know if I want to be surrounded by movie stars, beaches, and an endless procession of easy, fake blondes with giant boobs".
It's not just a deal that benefits one side.
ReplyDeleteWhile this is true 6.8 or even 7.2 will be much less than Doughty could get in his first UFA year and basically reflects his value now (slight overpay today)
Lombardi is taking the high road, but making is 8 years, or even 7 is a lowball offer if its 6.8.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThat didn't come out right again.
ReplyDeleteIf the escalator is invoked every years as a percentage of the cap, the salary will nearly halve over a 7-year term. A fixed salary on a long term with high inflation (5%) is a bad deal.
//As for term, LA is taking a major risk by offering him that many years.//
ReplyDeleteAnschutz is wealthy enough to do what the Rangers did with Redden. There is no risk except a miniscule portion of Anshutz's wealth.
The super rich teams can bury contracts. LA is one of the super rich teams.
Doughty is taking all the REAL risk signing a long contract.
@ Bad Wojo
ReplyDeleteOne of Meehan's clients is Jordan Eberle.
helenenothelen Helene Elliott
ReplyDeleteLeiweke: Kings won't blink in salary stalemate with Doughty
latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/20… via @latimessports
Kings ownership has Lombardi's back.
The crux of the issue from the Kings point of view:
ReplyDeleteLiewike:
“I think it’s the allocation issue and I’m not saying Dean doesn’t have the right to budge here. That’s Dean’s decision and I’ll support it,” Leiweke said.
“I don’t know if Dean’s going to do that because it gets back to the same problem. We don’t have that much money left in our cap right now and so when you factor in injuries and you factor in February moves at the trade deadline, we’re cutting it tight.
“More importantly, tell me which player we’re now starting to carve this $300,000 or $400,000 out of. We’re carving it out of someone’s salary next year and it’s no secret we’ve got some restricted and unrestricted free agents that we have to deal with in the next two years. So who is it on this team we go look at and say, ‘We just gave Drew your extra money, because $6.8 [million] wasn’t good enough'? That’s not good for team chemistry."
Godot, what risk is Doughty taking?
ReplyDeleteBeing rich for life, regardless of how he performs on the ice?
Man, no wonder he doesn't want to sign.
Doughty is rich for life if he signs for 5 years. The extra two years don't change that.
ReplyDeleteIf the Kings are worried about allocation, just sign him for a shorter term at lesser dollars. Sign him to a two year deal.
With a 5% escalator in the cap routinely invoked by the NHLPA, an average NHL defenseman will be signing for $6 million in 7 years. They are signing for $3.5-4 now.
Because Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were stupid enough to trust their Philly GM and owner to take a long term cap friendly deal for the team, doesn't mean Doughty has to be as stupid.
Lombardi and the Kings have to realize that
ReplyDelete1) Yzerman folded on term with Stamkos. Precedent for 5 year term set.
2) Holmgren double-crossed Richards and Carter after inducing them to sign extended contracts.
3) The Kings also prostrated themselves for Kovalchuk and for Brad Richards. Where was the Kopitar salary cap then?
Yes. In two years, it is going to be hell for awhile in Edmonton. Hopefully, all the precedents will be set and things may be more routine by the time it comes for Hall, Eberle, and Paajarvi.
I'd sooner try a hockey deal with Nashville for Weber. They are cash strapped, and would probably be more inclined to consider an offer of solid young guys who haven't hit the payday yet. Would you move MPS, Petry and a prospect or pick? If Weber isn't going to sign long term then maybe that is a deal they go for.
ReplyDeleteDBO
ReplyDeleteIt would take a lot more than that to pry Weber out of Nashville.
The Predators are a defense factory and would have marginal interest in Petry.
They just gave up Cody Franson for nothing to get rid of Lombardi's contract. ( as it turns out Lombardi is ready to go so Burke gets a huge win in trading Lebda for Franson AND Lombardi.)
They have Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi ready to step in soon. (Josi had 40P in 69GP in the AHL).
So any trade with the Preds would have to include at least two of the Oilers top forward prospects...likely Eberle+.
Even then, there are more than a few teams who could put together a better package.
Godot: you took the words right off my keyboard. LA never capped themselves when pursuing UFAs so this crap about a "Kopitar cap" is just that. If I'm Doughty's camp, I'd think about making a public counter offer of something like $6.6 for 5 years: that force the Kings to show their hand that this is about term and not money (which would make them look bad).
ReplyDeleteAs for the Oilers? Stay away from this mess. No doubt Doughty would sign in Edmonton as he lives in the offseason in London, ON (as someone who's lived in both places, Edmonton's a step up). We need to see just how good our forwards are before we commit to an expensive piece on D. If all these kids continue to improve, I think a Pittsburgh model makes the most sense: high powered forwards, with a good, deep defence, but no true number one option.
Absolutely. ABSOLUTELY, I offer sheet him. Drew Doughty is not just another stud young defenseman. He is exceptional. A legitimate franchise D Man who immediately becomes the best player on our team with only Taylor Hall having the potential to eventually (POSSSIBLY) become better. I have a few points to make about this
ReplyDelete-On what we would be giving up (2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd): I imagine, with Doughty, our picks would be in the range of 10-15 in the first year and 15-20 in the second. Consider the Dustin Penner deal. Equating Teubert to a second round pick, it is essentially the same return LA got as well as a higher pick (from the first year). People cried about the robbery that Lombardi got away with at the time - would another first make the difference between Penner and Doughty, even in an admittedly deeper draft year? Can we realistically expect a better player than Drew Doughty with any of those picks? HEEELLLL NO!
-On his attitude: What attitude? I can understand Detroit hardlining contracts to the measuring stick of Nicklas Lidstrom - he is the best defenseman of this generation, and the team itself is the best team of this generation with 4 cups and a standard of professionalism and excellence. Anze Kopitar is not Nicklas Lidstrom by a contry mile. He's not even Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg either. Furthermore, LA only GOT BACK INTO the playoffs when Drew Doughty took them there. He has every right to ask for more than Anze, every right to decline a longer term in a business that is trending further and further up in its contract structure, and every right to ask for franchise player money. In that article itself, the Kings' owner refers to Doughty as the cornerstone of the team.
-On the retaliatory efforts: Who cares? Lombardi is already scheming ways to end Tambellini's life like a deranged Wile E. Coyote. Other GMs are probably unphased by it unless they're Brian Burke. It doesn't effect them any more than another albatross contract would in that it makes our cap situation stickier and our young players easier to poach. But Drew Doughty is more than Shawn Horcoff or Khabibulin. He is, in my mind, one of the most deserving players in our league of an albatross contract. We can lock him and Hall up, then deal with the rest later as far as I'm concerned
-On the Kings: They will be peaking as we are on the come up. The chance to remove the best player from your rival and place him on your team should always be taken, especially when it only costs you picks that will be of little consequence in the time that your rivals are peaking.
-On Drew Doughty: As Lowetide points out, he is the Dman equivalent to our ridiculous stable of talent up front, and the player that can effectively bridge the gap to the crop we have on the blue right now, and the crop we are currently developing. Beyond that, he is a talented young defenseman of the like we haven't seen for years. Pronger/Niedermayer level. I don't exaggerate when I say I see Bourque-level potential in him. He is incredible. Note his performance in the Olympics as a 20 year old, where he was arguably the best of the backline soldiers. And if you are worried about his performance this year, note his concussion and how he performed in the playoffs when he was back to full health.
As far as I'm concerned, this is further evidence of Lombardi's stupidity and the chance of a lifetime that I cannot believe has not been taken advantage of by SOME team. I hope, wish, and potentially might pray that our team is the one to capitalize.
As far as I'm concerned sitting on our hands right now with the young crop we got, and how perfectly he would fit in with them, is asinine.
DSF: but you aren'\t taking into account the money issue. You made my case for me in the lombardi deal. They will move money if needed, and they only have one more year of RFA years for Weber. So no to Ptery fine, but a Gagner, MPS and Klefbomb will make it happen if they are strapped for cash. and as you mentioned top heavy in Dmen and low on top end offensive prospects
ReplyDeleteIts personal between Lombardi and Meehan too by the sounds of it. I read somewhere (of course I cannot remember where, stupid aging) about a long list of times they've butted heads and its gotten to the point where its stupid petty shit.
ReplyDeleteThis could totally derail LA's season. Without Doughty they better than average but with him they're a darkhorse contender imo.
As for an offersheet it isn't going to happen but its funny how the NHL is such an old boys' club. Christ its part of the rules and this kid is the total package. You'd figure someone would take a run at him. Since the lockout of the six Cup winners four have had a franchise defenceman (Anaheim had two) who could play nearly thirty effective minutes a night. The Pens had Crosby and Malkin but they also had Gonchar and a pretty solid corps back on the blue. Only Carolina won without a star Dman.
How the fuck did those fuckers win anyhow? Holy fuck. Luckiest team ever.
Anyhow if not the Oilers you would think someone would have taken a run at him. But not a peep.
Ducks got Pronger for less than that package.
ReplyDeleteGodot, but damn, Richards has it hard now. From craphole Philly to California. How DOES he handle it? I'd say Columbus is an improvement on Philly too, if not from a competitive perspective.
ReplyDeleteLook, honestly, it comes down to this for me:
1. No need to entice other teams into making an offer to Hall, Eberle, RNH, MPS, Gagner, etc. We already have the Vanek stigma hanging on us. Don't think for a second that Darcy Regier isn't waiting to pounce on one of ours.
2. This is rewarding Don Meehan, the same douchebag who was involved in the Smyth fiasco. In my opinion only, we should be grateful, because that was a disaster of a contract (I doubt anyone in Colorado was crying when that cap load was lifted off their shoulders), but an agent like that deserves a response from GMs. And that response is silence. Let Doughty sit, eat Doritos, and watch NHL games and see his salary disappear.
@ Acumen.
ReplyDeleteThe Kings, not the Oilers, are the youngest team in the league.
Expecting them to "peak" before the Oilers is not accurate.
The Kings have 4 players over the age of 30. (including the eminently expendable Ethan Moreau.
The Oilers have 6.
If the Oilers were to successfully offer sheet Doughty, you can bet your mortgage (and your passport) that Lombardi would return the favour with Hall and/or Eberle.
At that point, the Oilers are in cap hell with all the RFA's they need to sign while the Kings have been enjoying all those draft picks.
Black Dog said...
ReplyDeleteDucks got Pronger for less than that package.
Really?
Who was in command?
Was it the same guy who traded Lubo for Whitney?
Shocked and awed.
@DBO
ReplyDeleteOkay, then let's see some "top end offensive prospects".
Gagner and MPS don't fit the bill.
You can sign 40 - 50 point free agents pretty easily so prying away the best defenseman in the league for a couple of those and a partridge in a Swedish pear tree likely won't get the job done.
They'll want a bonafide top 3 player +
With Gagner's lack of progress and injury status and Magnus being relegated to the third line, I doubt there would be much interest there.
That kind of offer would be analogous to the Canucks offering Mason Raymond, Jannick Hansen and Sebastien Erixon for Weber. (all of whom have more experience that your proposal)
Think the Preds would take that offer?
I don't
@ DSF
ReplyDeleteThe point still stands. We will then be rivals peaking at the same time who have taken their team's best player and made him our own.
Let Lombardi strike back. Either we sign our players before they get to the point here they can be poached, or take the compensation if the deal's too rich. Simple as that. If it's anyone but Hall that gets taken, and probably even if it is Hall, we win in the trade off. I'm sure we can prioritize a way to hold onto both players, and probably more as well.
If we have Doughty in hand, I'll gladly give up an Eberle or a Paajarvi. And I frakkin love Jordan Eberle.
And besides all that - aren't we expecting Lombardi to be plotting a revenge right now any ways? Does not acting on Doughty lessen his hostility toward us at all?
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly, fuck Lombardi and the horse he rode in on; he doesn't deserve any favors or consideration. We know he'll pull out the knife the moment our back is turned.
Renney off day
ReplyDeleteA wide range of topics including Hemmer probably playing tomorrow-lots of Q & A that is hard to hear exactly what is being asked/answered.
I tend to agree with the sentiment that it's 1 year too early for an offer sheet for Doughty-he's a nice player but an offer sheet is an awfully steep price.
@ Acumen.
ReplyDeleteThere's a better than even chance you're giving up Hall, Yakupov and a top pairing defenseman for Doughty.
Still want to play?
lol DSF, just pointing something out, not sure where you get off being such a dick with your response, I've always shown you respect
ReplyDeletenice
No. I think Doughty is a tad over-rated. Not by much but he had a disappointing 2010-2011.
ReplyDeleteMy hope is that Ryan Suter does not get a contract extension prior to the draft. Nashville has done the pre-July 1 deals in the past and I would hope the Oilers would get in there and offer a pick for the rights to negotiate with him.
The other target for next summer is Mike Green or John Carlson from the Caps. Both are due new contracts and Washington is a cap team. They have some dollars coming off next year but really Semin would be crazy to play anywhere else.
If you can get your rock in Suter and your playmaker in either Carlson or Green the blueline is set.
People need to stop worrying about the goaltending. Dubnyk is ready.
Hey Pat.
ReplyDeleteNo intent.
The medium is too often the message.
Wolfie, here's something to support your point:
ReplyDeleteDoes everyone here remember when Phaneuf looked All-World when he was hitting his RFA year? The next Scott Stevens or Chris Pronger?
He never developed from there. His positioning never improved, other teams figured out his habits, he never adapted.
It's why I'd be hesitant to give any young player (and Doughty and Stamkos especially) too much of a contract, too early. Stamkos is a borderline power play specialist. He plays well 5v5, but he really only excels in 5v4 - and how much of that is due to Marty St. Louis?
I haven't paid as much attention to Doughty, but I still hold similar reservations. Maybe he'll be the next Niedermayer, or maybe he'll simply be a Sandis Ozolinsh.
One thing that has gone unmentioned and is perhaps forgotten is that the player, Doughty, has to sign the offer sheet. You can't just "offer sheet him". Doughty's camp will likely try negotiating thru the media before taking offer sheets. And when they are open to offers they will take into account the traded picks, the position of the team offering, and their loss' effect on that team's future.
ReplyDeleteThere's lots of arguments against trying an OS. This is Meehan. It's early in our rebuild so if 5 years is the term, we're likely wasting money for three of them. It's not clear yet whether Doughty is a for sure franchise Dman or if he's is durable. It's a heckuva commitment in terms of cap space and picks for a guy who wants to decide where he's going to play at the earliest opportunity. The Oil seem to be trying to build a team where the players will go to war for each other, and I'm not sure a move like this fits that theme.
Doesn't make sense to me, but I guess I'd call Meehan and ask what it would take; make an informed decision. I just don't think this is the direction the Oil are going (always tough to tell with aimless wandering).
I think an offer sheet is a terrible tool when used by a team that sucks like the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteYou not only give up some potentially terrific assets, but you have to overpay the player by quite a margin to actually acquire the player in question. That hurts your chances at building a cost effective team.
I suppose theoretically it isn't a bad tool to be used by a team that will be picking low in the first round to steal a potentially promising player from another cap maxed team, but we haven't really seen an effective example of that yet.
I don't think that an offer sheet needs to be huge. Doughty may sign a one year deal for $3mil, as it would make him arbitration eligible next summer. With Weber at $7.5m and Myers at $12m as rfa comparables, he'll get his money, and he can leverage his arbitration deals through to his UFA years. Sure, LA would match, but they'd be paying Doughty $8m+ next summer and would risk losing him at 25.
ReplyDeleteAlso, does anyone else find it curious that we still call them restricted free agents when clearly they are not free agents at all? I mean, you're only worth what the market will pay, and right now restricted free agent rights are virtually worthless. Anyone know how many offer sheets have actually been tendered under the current CBA? I count 6 - Penner, Vanek, Kesler, Backes, Bernier, Hjalmarsson. It's actually kind of surprising that the NHLPA hasn't cried "collusion" yet.
What's more surprising is the NHLPA calling itself a "union".
ReplyDeleteSure. We need dmen.
ReplyDeleteI would pass on Doughty. He's a talent but the kid just turned down 6.8 per to play on a winner in LA with the team that drafted him. That makes it tough to say he has a good attitude. I think he would be a cancer. Save the cash and go all in for Weber next summer.
ReplyDeleteThe cost in draft picks (for a bad team like Edmonton) and the cap inflexibility when their own RFAs come to term shouts a big no to the offer sheet.
ReplyDeleteI don't fault Doughty one iota for not wanting to sign a 8 year contract. 5 years is a long time.
Ask Jeff Carter how he feels about playing for essentially the rest of his career at 5.27 million in Columbus (for now) after taking one for the team and giving a helluva 'hometown' discount so his GM could have cap flexibility to build a winner around him.
Yeah a lot can change in 1 year, let alone 5. Doughty is a smart enough guy not lock himself down for 8 years at 6.8 million as was Stamkos.
Word Verification (honest): costs
I agree with many that it is 1 year too early. At this point in the rebuild, I would be looking for a trade to pick up another blue-chip prospect defenseman, prior to reaching his prime.
ReplyDeleteSimon Despres from Pittsburgh, one of Nashville's young guys like Blum or Ellis.
Offer sheeting Doughty at this time would indicate unbridled enthusiasm towards the team's core IMHO (i.e. the kind of enthusiasm that can only come from drinking scotch with your morning corn flakes).
ReplyDeleteWhat do we know about this team right now? Well, it appears Hall and Eberle are the real deal. That's it. Beyond that, we have a ton of POTENTIAL and a lot of questions (Whitney's health, Horcoff and Hemsky's contract, Dubnky/Khabibulin, etc.).
Yes, the potential looks solid but as many in the blogosphere have pointed out, Oiler fans have an unhealthy infatuation with youth. The reality is RNH, Omark, MPS, Petry, etc. could all blossom or they could all flatline. None of these players have established themselves as productive NHLers yet! Perhaps when we have at least 4 or 5 players established as a core, we can consider throwing Katz' cash at shiny baubles.
C'mon guys, we are NOT Leaf fans. Rebuild does not mean two years of suck. It's going to be 4 years at least to do it right. So sit back, stock up on barley beverages and get ready for another season of suck.
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ReplyDeleteNo most definitely not.
ReplyDelete1) So if you pay Doughty $7 million, how much do you pay Hall? And Eberle? And Omark? It sets a bad precedent and the Oilers salaries will explode without them having won anything yet.
2) Campoli signed for 1.75 million? just because the Oilers have holes in their top 4 defense - does not mean the answer is offer sheeting Doughty for $7 million. The answer is to sign/trade for two top four defensemen who are combined $7 million. Less risk, more security versus injury.
3) I 100% agree witih BankShot. Making an offer sheet if you're the Vancouver Canucks (assuming cap space) makes sense. Making an offer sheet if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, or the Edmonton Oilers for that matter - is high risk, especially if you have no record of success recently.
@DSF
ReplyDeleteI disagree entirely. I think putting Doughty on the team right now takes us out of the Yakupov sweepstakes considering the additions up front, further development of the kids, and hopefully the consistent usage od Dubnyk in goal.
I'd say with Doughty on our team, we are looking at finishing somewhere around 20th in the standings this year.
Also, as I said - it doesn't mean we're giving up Hall. It means another team might try to poach him. We either sign him before he hits free agency or pay what the market demands after he hits it.
ReplyDeleteAs I said, we're more likely losing an Eberle or a Paajarvi for Doughty IF the poachers even come out. Hasn't happened yet with Burke or Regier... We win that trade off, and I am glad to do it.
If I thought LA wouldn't match, I'd 100% absolutely offer sheet Doughty.
ReplyDeleteyou don't offer sheet during a rebuild, the opportunity cost is too great.
ReplyDeletethe oilers do need a strategy for improving the blue line over the next 2 to 3 years. i think the best way to go about it is the UFA route, with overpays for young, value defensemen.
next summer presents a decent crop of UFA defensemen at 30 years or less. you've got Liles, Rozsival, Wideman, Jackman, Oduya, Suter, Carle, Coburn, Colaiacovo, Cleason, Gorges, Morrisonn, Boychuk, Campoli, Lepisto, Rome, Woywitka
that's a wide range of talent, though most of them will be re-signed before July 1st. the top 3 [Liles, Rozsival, Wideman] are very good and worth targeting. there are some real gems in that list too, like Coburn and Colaiacovo.
the Oilers should let it be known that they are very serious about picking up defensive talent through free agency next year, and see which of these guys holds out for the money or term.
none of these guys are Drew Doughty, but i think the potential to substantially improve the defense next summer exists, without gambling draft picks.
it isn't time to panic yet.