As time allows over the summer, I'll have a look at some of the kids who were taken outside the first two rounds of the 2011 draft. I began this series with an item on Tobias Rieder and this is the second installment.
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Dillon Simpson was selected in the 4th round of the 2011 entry draft by the Edmonton Oilers. 92nd overall and the area around it have been good for the Oilers over the years, with men like Walt Poddubny, Peter White, Shawn Horcoff, Mike Comrie and Zack Stortini all outperforming their draft number and having NHL careers. Chris VandeVelde, Linus Omark and Jeremie Blain are recent draft selections tracking well.
Pre-draft slotting had Simpson as either a mid third round pick (Redline) or an early 5th rounder (ISS), but he came in as the first pick in the fourth round, 92nd overall. Players taken in the fourth round who may have better careers include Joachim Nermark, Michael St. Croix, Colin Jacobs, Kale Kessy and Tobias Rieder.
Scouting report
- Red Line Report scout Max Giese: "He's a smart player defensively, rarely out of position; but he's a pretty bad skater and he doesn't have any poise moving the puck. He's a slushy skater with a short and sluggish stride. His hands are stiff, he struggles to put passes on the tape and he always hurries to get the puck off of his stick. He's getting the ice time right now because of North Dakota's injuries."
- Redline Report: Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Son of former longtime NHL'er Craig Simpson has very good hockey sense and understands game situations instinctively. Had trouble getting qualilty icetime as a 17-year-old true freshman on deep, veteran defence corps of top collegiate program, but did show steady progress adjusting to the pace of play against older, stronger opponents. Rarely saw the ice on either special teams units.
- More Redline: Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility. Tentative to do anything offensively and always has one foot back on defence. Doesn't see the ice well and hurries to get the puck off his stick. Makes sharp defensive reads and is rarely out of position. Struggled 1-on-1 in the corners and down log against more physically developed forwards.
Simpson's contribution to an NHL team (should he make the grade) will be in the defensive zone without the puck. His Desjardins NHLE (82gp, 2-9-11) implies a stay-at-home type, although as a 17-year old playing NCAA hockey the age difference can be massive (for instance, Simpson played with 24-year old defender Jake Marto this past season. Jake Marto is 6 months younger than Ladislav Smid) and we shouldn't be terribly surprised if he shows improvement this coming season.
Simpson--like his Dad--appears to be comfortable with the media and in many ways was well prepared for the role of pro hockey player. Hockey people have been aware of him for some time now. If Simpson weren't so famous as a prospect, I would suggest he was a "draft and follow" player, but his bloodlines and resume suggest a more substantial player.
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I know that this blog has been a gushing testament to the brilliance of Stu MacGregor and I'm aware that it doesn't sit right with many. It seems to me that in some circles of the Al Gore the only way to be "credible" is to be "negative" which runs counter to logic and reason but then again the internet highway is a collective so expecting consistency is a crazy notion.
Still, I've always felt that you need a good reason to change your mind and there isn't one available when it comes to the drafting done by the Oilers since the Magnificent Bastard took over the head job. The one thing we can agree on is that the report card is years away for MBS, with even the 2008 draft (his first one as director) a couple of winters from coming into view. Still, the evidence we do have is extremely positive.
Stu MacGregor trusts his list, and in selecting Dillon Simpson in the 4th round he remained true to his philosophy by taking a player who:
- has a nice range of skills.
- displays intelligence.
- has an aggressive style.
- was taken by the Oilers in a slot that would not be considered a reach selection.
- Jarret Stoll (2002) 515 NHL games
- Matt Greene (2002) 379 NHL games
- JF Jacques (2003) 160 NHL games
- Zack Stortini (2003) 256 NHL games
- Kyle Brodziak (2003) 337 NHL games
- Liam Reddox (2004) 100 NHL games
- Jeff Petry (2006) 35 NHL games
- Theo Peckham (2006) 102 NHL games
- Linus Omark (2007) 51 NHL games
If I were to choose a player (aside from Musil) as the strongest candidate among day 2 selections in 2011 to clear 200 games it would be Tobias Rieder. Others that I might have ahead of Simpson are goaltender Samu Perhonen and defenseman Martin Gernak. That's my way of saying he's a long shot based on scouting report, where he was selected and his on ice performance with North Dakota. The good arrows include bloodlines, his ability to survive NCAA hockey at such a young age, intelligence and the fact that he comes from a family familiar with the pressures and rigors of a pro career.
Perhaps more than any other day 2 pick from this most recent draft, we'll know a helluva lot more about Dillon Simpson this time next season.
i was actually hoping the Oil were going to take Nermark, a Swede and a center instead of Simpson.
ReplyDeleteLowetide:
ReplyDeleteNo love for Tyler Pitlick in terms of "2nd day picks who could have sustained NHL careers"? Or was he on your lawn with that Petry kid and gets treated with similar disdain?
Being so young in the NCAA is impressive. He's essentially a boy still, so of course he's going to look a little slower and a little out-of-place among young men. Let's see what his progression is this year. I doubt that his bloodline made any difference in the selection, beyond the thought that if the young man covered his draft bet that he'd stay loyal to the org.
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
ReplyDeleteHe had the NCAA production of a first round draft choice.
Probably if he would have killed the USHL he'd be ranked higher.
Haha... Redline...
It seems to me that in some circles of the Al Gore the only way to be "credible" is to be "negative" which runs counter to logic
ReplyDeleteIts much easier to tear down someone else's argument than to build your own.
Keep doing what you are doing sir.
Also,
Bruce has an interesting article the brings into doubt the correlation between shooting the puck and winning hockey games for the last 2 years.
If shooting isn't consistently correlated with winning, then the need to parse shooting data into subsections of what the score is (i.e. tied, behind by 1, ahead by 1, etc) and not mixing all that shooting info is probably needed for better analysis.
The downside to this is that as you break down the data into smaller subsets, you lose your advantage of larger sample sizes to help determine what a player is actually doing on the ice over a large sample to help evaluate the player.
magisterrex: By bloodlines, I mean it as a positive projection not as a reason for them to take him (because he was related to a former Oiler). I'm sure scouts must mark that as a positive arrow no matter where the Dad played.
ReplyDeleteI think Pitlick is off the pace.
Pitlick NHLE 12-15-27
Hamilton NHLE 10-23-33
Marincin NHLE 5-16-21
He could turn it around or emerge as a more pro ready player than the other two, but based on a year ago I'd say both Hamilton and Marincin are ahead of Pitlick.
Dillon and Keegan Lowe both went to Vimy Ridge Academy for a time and I can tell you that Dillon was much better regarded amongst his classmates and they considered him the better player.
ReplyDeleteI watched him during the recent Oiler development camp and did not see any sign of slushy skating. In fact, he received high fives and a big cheer after his first run. I can't tell you why they cheered but he didn't look slow...
With Pitlick being injured I'm not certain that you can make any projection whatsoever on such a limited dataset. At worst you can put him in the "let's watch and see" list.
ReplyDeletePitlick played 56 games, Hamilton 62 in the WHL a year ago.
ReplyDeleteAs for Pitlick, I hope his 2-way game is excellent.
ReplyDeleteHis offensive numbers are under what you'd expect from a guy with a scoring touch.
My favorite 2nd day. Jermaine Blain: 91st overall 2010 .93PPG
ReplyDelete.9ppg in the CHL in 18 year old season seems to be a good marker:
2010: Gormely; Blain; Gauthier-leduc
2009: Fowler, Elliot
2008: kulikov, J. Carlson, De Haan
2007: blum; Del Zotto; Pietrangelo
2006: Doughty; Dudas
2005: Grangani; Vlassic; Bourdon; Sanguinetti; Kindl; R. Wilson
2003: Paiment, Barker
2002: Gorges; Wizniewski
2001: Bouwmeester; Tyutin; Wideman; Eminger; A. Johnson
2000: Hamhuis; Klesla.
Simpson was a decent bet where the Oilers got him. He fell a bit because of the negative scouting comments about his college season, but:
ReplyDelete- He graduated high school a year early and was therefore young for a freshman in the NCAA, where freshmen rarely dominate
- Lander improved his skating immensely with the coaching of Steve Serdachny, so Simpson gaining a step isn't out of the question
- In Simpson's rookie year in the AJHL, he was second in PPG for ALL defensemen, so he may still be capable of producing points
- I don't recall Papa Simpson being much of a skater, but he sure had a knack of being in the right place; if his kid has those instincts it will serve him well
If shooting isn't consistently correlated with winning, then the need to parse shooting data into subsections of what the score is (i.e. tied, behind by 1, ahead by 1, etc) and not mixing all that shooting info is probably needed for better analysis.
ReplyDeletehigh quality shooting wins you games. Shot chart and Shot type. plain and simple. more evidence of the need for commulative data. the 3000% variance in shot value comes into play. 10 &0% shots versus 30 3% shots. pretty simple.
Now who wants to watch all the video to confirm location and shot type. NHL? HELLO? ANYONE?
I don't believe Stu M. had a say in this pick. This has KLowe's fingerprints all over it. Too bad. Even Klowe's own kid didn't want to play in his old man's organization. There had to be 20 to 30 other players that would have fit better. If this team was a #1 team and you wanted to make a pick like this for the "old boys club" then fine but when you're #30 and holding you need to make every pick count.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that in some circles of the Al Gore the only way to be "credible" is to be "negative" which runs counter to logic
ReplyDeleteThis is probably the most moronic, incoherent, and incorrect statement that I have ever read¡
I for one appreciate the lack of negative content on your blog. It is refreshing when viewed in light of other "credible" blog content. Decorum is almost never the choice of conduct for many writers on C&B and mc79. Hopefully they all end up eating crow down the road when Stanley comes to town.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the great work LT.
LT:
ReplyDeleteKeep on doing what you're doing. While it is fair and important to be critical about the Oilers (I wouldn't be the first to assert that it is part of the role of fans), it is also necessary to maintain a balanced view. I appreciate your approach of looking for positives because we all know there have been enough negatives over the past years.
Not slagging other blogs...everyone has their own style and I enjoy a great deal of them. I just don't think you should take heat for having your own.
That said...I'm glad that the Simpson pick turns out to be "in the range" rather than a "family" pick as I initially feared.
high quality shooting wins you games. Shot chart and Shot type. plain and simple. more evidence of the need for commulative data. the 3000% variance in shot value comes into play. 10 &0% shots versus 30 3% shots. pretty simple.
ReplyDeleteIts more than that though.
The issue is scoring effects.
The way coaches are coaching in the NHL, the team that is behind tends to out-shoot the team that is ahead by a wide margin.
This is probably one of the main causes of the phenomenon of the outshot team winning the majority of the games.
I also think one contributing factors to the success of this strategy is the bigger, better goalies with bigger and better equipment.
Goals/game has trended down along a similar curve as outshooters pts%.
Perhaps now since it is so tough to get a goal, the strategy of going into a defensive shell with a one goal lead has gained more traction with NHL coaches, who main objective is to win games, not score goals.
Also,
In regards to high quality shots. Everyone someone tries to figure out which team has higher quality shots, they stop as the difference between teams is almost zero.
I don't believe Stu M. had a say in this pick. This has KLowe's fingerprints all over it.
ReplyDeleteHow did you acquire this forensic evidence?
But more to the point, how is a guy who is rated as a fourth round pick, and then picked in the fourth round, evidence of a presidential override? The analysis presented here demonstrates that there is a nucleus of a player in Simpson, so why not draft him and give him his four years in the NCAA to develop? It is a fourth round pick after all, which have a lower success rate than those pull tabs you get at the county fair.
I am all in favour of hitting management when they deserve (I demo that regularly enough) but this is a bit of a reach.
Woodguy said: The issue is scoring effects
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you on this point. JLikens has done some great work looking at that very matter, concluding:
"...in an imaginary league in which luck is a complete non-factor, EV shot ratio with the score tied would account for roughly 65% of the variance in outscoring. In other words, even though the two variables may not be strongly correlated over the course of a single season, a team's EV shot ratio with the score tied serves as a reasonably good indicator of how it can be expected to perform over the long run. This is especially true for the three most recent seasons, in which EV shot ratio accounts for 75% of the variation in outscoring ability. It seems that as the level of parity between teams has increased, even strength shooting has become even more important."
Hall, Pitlick, Simpson, Musil. Interesting how many players the Oil have drafted of late having relatives with athletic backgrounds.
ReplyDeleteIt would seem MBS places stock in the bloodlines. Evaluating hockey players as if they're racehorses?
Sounds like Gretz and Hayley Wickenheiser creating a progeny is the perfect storm for the Magnificent Bastard? I wonder if he enjoyed 'Weird Science' as a lad.
This is probably the most moronic, incoherent, and incorrect statement that I have ever read
ReplyDeleteWow, clearly someone accidentally stubbed their morning wood.
This is probably the most moronic, incoherent, and incorrect statement that I have ever read
ReplyDeleteWow, clearly someone accidentally stubbed their morning wood.
Note the irony signifier at the end.
Dillon has twitter? Uh oh. Hope Mr. Dellow doesn't troll the poor kid for punctuation and grammar and call him a crap prospect like he did Teubert.
ReplyDeleteDon't want to be in Tyler's crosshairs. Dude is absolutely vicious and ruthless.
..Or the "Bookie Thing"...As we like to call it around here.
ReplyDeleteIt would seem MBS places stock in the bloodlines. Evaluating hockey players as if they're racehorses?
ReplyDeleteDon't forget Gagner. There have been numerous quotes about his background as well.
..Or the "Bookie Thing"...As we like to call it around here.
ReplyDeleteI didn't want to call it that, for fear of upsetting him even further. ;-)
Hope Mr. Dellow doesn't troll the poor kid for punctuation and grammar and call him a crap prospect like he did Teubert.
ReplyDeleteMr. Teubert decided to share a thought in the marketplace of 140 character ideas:
blogger's always have suspect opinions, good thing all bloggers do is blog and not coach or manage the team #staypositive
That was, I note, apparently in response to a pretty favourable post Scott Reynolds wrote at CnB.
If you put something forth into the marketplace and people react, you can hardly claim that they're trolling you. If anything, he trolled the 'sphere.
Fair enough, but the apostrophe rip was lame. I expect better from you.
ReplyDeleteAs much as the Simpson pick has family favour optics there is very little to substantiate that being the case. It doesn't mean the kids going to go on to have a long and productive NHL career but he's been a solid, draftable prospect for some time. Every bit as worthy as his closest comp Keegan Lowe even though the two have chosen different routes to get there.
ReplyDeleteThe kid not only made the AJ at 16, (nothing to sneeze at), but contributed in a major way winning league rookie of the year honours. Then he plays for a top NCAA team at 17 and some think he should have killed? That's pretty sad.
The kids an intelligent, 2 way player who was no more a reach than any other taken in the 4th round. The skating issues are hugely overstated imo. I find it quite humourous that some think they know so much more than McGregor and the rest of the Oiler's scouting staff.
Clarkenstein: You're misinformed
HBomb: Pitlick didn't do himself any favours this past season. He's below players taken later right now and for good reason.
It takes people a long time to learn their cue and make it to Broadway.
ReplyDeleteOn a technology forum in the late 1990s there was a meme that no matter how big and expensive your new disk drive, Microsoft products would expand to consume all the space available. For a decade, whenever Microsoft came into the discussion, some witless troll would mention the disk drive meme, and 90% of the forum would chortle on cue.
Like running a team under the EIG, an operating system in the 1990s was like a gaggle of Yogi Berra chorus girls sharing a Manhattan dorm room. It was difficult to fill your lungs. You had to auction off the heirlooms just to sit down. As disk drives continued to gain capacity, the divas of destiny ditched their old music school bunk beds, and moved to the suburbs with three car garages and king sized waterbeds, by which point latent expansion had filled its gravy boats.
I listened to a podcast on RadioLab yesterday which presented the idea that babies think in logarithms. In other words, they would understand the growth of disk drives better than most adults.
If you give young toddlers a pile with 1 object and a pile with 9 objects and ask for a number halfway in between, the toddler provides you with three objects (1*3 = 9/3). This is the harmonic average, though the show tried not to scare the listeners by acting as if the concept has been around for a thousand years. It takes a lot of parental training to grasp numbers as a counting sequence. Even after toddlers learn the sequence, they don't initially grasp it as number.
When disk drives were 1GB, the disk drive meme expressed a seething frustration. When drives were 30GB, the meme would still trigger the chortle chorus of put-down laggards. When drives reached 1TB, the meme finally showed up at the crematorium and emptied its pockets. After the engine of progress steams past, it takes a second magnificent multiple before the caboose fades over the horizon out of earshot.
Frustration, anger, disappointment are sticky emotions -- until the day comes when you gore the lion. In the build-up to goring the lion, nothing wounds the choreography of petulance to less effect than a random outbreak of competence.
Attacking kids is classless. Especially from a lawyer who should have a better comfort level for criticism.
ReplyDelete..Or the "Bookie Thing"...As we like to call it around here.
ReplyDeleteOf all the moronic, idiotic things I've read here, its the freaking BOOKIE THINGY!!!
randford4life,
Have you played around at stats.hockeyanalysis?
I don't agree with some of his personal opinions on which numbers matter most, but the stats are there and in quantity.
I particularly like that you can see what type of player the player you are examining plays against.
We all use Gabe's awesome site and refer to "toughs" etc, but those number encompass both offensive and defensive stats.
At this site, you will get to see if they see the blended offensive and defensive ratings of opposing players.
Lots to play around with there.
Fair enough, but the apostrophe rip was lame. I expect better from you.
ReplyDeleteAdmittedly. I don't usually go with grammar stuff; I can only plead that I was in the gym, it was hot and I was lightheaded. Shoulda gone right for the jugular immediately.
Apostrophes there still drive me nuts though.
Attacking kids is classless. Especially from a lawyer who should have a better comfort level for criticism.
Oh please. He's 21 and expressing his ideas in a big boy environment.
Internet bullying is an interesting phenomenon, as sometimes it's an interesting classic role reversal. Rather than the jock slamming the geek against the lockers, it's the geek using his or her superior grasp of language and linguistic style to attack the jock.
ReplyDeleteFor example, a lawyer could easily overwhelm a young hockey player on the Interweb battlefield. I suppose it's all how you look at it, of course.
Re: DeadmanWaking post
ReplyDeleteWholly christ my brain hurts. I would like to see someone in the oilogosphere meme take a stab at criticizing that post.
F-22 screams over my head
Well ripping on Teubert for likely being a crap prospect might motivate the guy so who knows. I think we'd all like to see an effective Teubert punching Sedins in the back of the head for years to come.
ReplyDeleteI'll let it slide with Colton as he's a high school grad who has probably had five concussions. His priorities are in other places.
The better tweets are Bobby Ryan and Biz Nasty hitting on Team USA soccer babes.
Internet bullying is an interesting phenomenon
ReplyDeleteUm, this was hardly internet bullying. He was talking about bloggers having suspect opinions and I expressed the view that this blogger thinks he's a suspect prospect. Not sure how that's bullying. Also not like I went out of my way to go after him or something.
For example, a lawyer could easily overwhelm a young hockey player on the Interweb battlefield.
I think you're a bit confused on what bullying is. If I go out and play contact pick-up hockey with Teubert and he runs me over, I can hardly complain that it's bullying. At worst, I could say that it's low hanging fruit but then I agreed to step on the ice and knew the rules when I did so.
I'm not sure how this is any different. He decided to get on Twitter. I don't generally tweet at hockey players - I held my tongue when Taylor Hall failed his open book , untimed, online boating exam a second time. In this specific case, Teubert made a dick point. To use my analogy, he skated across the blueline with his head down. If he got his feathers a bit ruffled, well, maybe he won't say dumb shit in the future.
I would like to see someone in the oilogosphere meme take a stab at criticizing that post.
I wasn't sure what it meant. I think the analogy failed, although I've never seen a lion fight a computer, so maybe I just don't understand it.
Well ripping on Teubert for likely being a crap prospect might motivate the guy so who knows.
I would think that the NHL money and women would be a better motivator.
I've seen MC79 do more sustained, in-depth attacks over smaller things. From my experience, and Teubert could attest to this, when you fight above your weight class you tend to get schooled. And Tubes22 can likely deal with any warranted criticism that comes his way without his fans needing to intervene on his behalf.
ReplyDeleteAs you have addressed my point, let me respond.
ReplyDeleteI held my tongue when Taylor Hall failed his open book , untimed, online boating exam a second time.
To what depth have we fallen that now we should self-congratulate ourselves over not attacking someone?
I think you're a bit confused on what bullying is.
I don't believe I am. And the response I read confirms it. Online bullying is a serious anti-social behavior issue. I respect your verbal prowess, but do not respect its use on those less-than-able to defend themselves.
It is refreshing when viewed in light of other "credible" blog content. Decorum is almost never the choice of conduct for many writers on C&B and mc79. Hopefully they all end up eating crow down the road when Stanley comes to town.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the great work LT.
That is some high comedy right there.
To what depth have we fallen that now we should self-congratulate ourselves over not attacking someone?
ReplyDeleteI wish I hadn't sworn off making fun of people's grammar. Damn you Smarmy Boss!
To the fanboy/commenter: whatever. If you seriously think that any comment aimed at anyone less able to verbally defend himself constitutes bullying, I don't know how you're able to function. Cheers.
DeadmanWalking's posts usually make me want to pick up a Melville novel or Coleridge poem for some easy reading.
ReplyDeleteI was disappointed when he mentioned Broadway and didn't follow up with anything Broadway. Not a line from "On the Street Where you Live" or "Santa Fe."
ReplyDeleteVery sad now.
Late to the party as always, it was a hell of a weekend, hey Lee, thanks for the kind words the other day, I appreciate it. Although saying that I "play the game" is far too kind. No legs, no hands, no size. Other than that I was a surefire pro. ;)
ReplyDeleteIf that's how you rate guys though, Ty is a hell of a hockey player, he was slumming a bit when he pulled on that Capsule jersey. ;) Also a terrific guy btw. He doesn't need anybody defending him but he's honest is all and as he said to those who say he's a negative guy, check out the spring of 2006. And Rivers', Vic's and Dennis' posts too over at IOF. They call it as they see it and way more often than not they are right. Some pretty smart dudes.
Anyhow back to summer. Hit that patio lads and look at the world going by, especially the women. Hockey season will be here soon enough. ;)
"If that's how you rate guys though..."
ReplyDeleteActually, my system is far less complex than that. Do you eat meat and refuse to shave your legs? If so, you're probably a guy I can hang with. Enjoy a cold beer and not hung up on political correctness? Even better. Have a hot girlfriend with a predilection for jean cutoffs and serving your mates tasty appetizers during the ballgame? Put it there pal, we're going to be friends for life.
Simpson has an impressive resume if he can"t skate. Agree 2-3 years with Serdachny and he will be an adequate skater
ReplyDeleteWoodguy
I read Deadman, reread Deadman, and am always reminded of trying to read Ulysses by James Joyce.....very very good book but a wee bit tough to understand
Which is a compliment
Word verification: retrap....... is that internet bullying?
lol, well two out of three then although I do have a hot wife. She serves no man though. ;)
ReplyDeleteTOJ - retrap is what the Wild do to you when you try that breakout again. And again. And again. Its tremendous hockey.
I am late to the party too.
ReplyDeleteSo first of all, the said article at C&B actually is an optimistic take on Tuebert if you read past the 1st paragraph.
"It is refreshing when viewed in light of other "credible" blog content. Decorum is almost never the choice of conduct for many writers on C&B and mc79. Hopefully they all end up eating crow down the road when Stanley comes to town."
Now as a frequent C&B poster, I take offense to the above statement. Almost all the writers there are hoping for the same stanley you talk about. The problem is that any criticism laid out by someone like Derek is instantly taken as a negative. Poeple dont even stop to ponder if he is right or not. Derek doesnt want Jones resigned-Negative. Derek doest think Tambo is doing his job- Negative. It is funny becasue
a> Those are probably once a week articles and genereally a lot of good and positive writing happens there.
b> There is a lot more pessimistic talk that happens here. and almost every time we end up talking about the same thing.
c> One of the very fine thinkers" Ben Massey" stopped writing frequently becasue of the amount of hate he used to get for writing excessively negative stuff. He generally did PGT and the way Oilers played in 09-10 I dont think any thing else was warranted. I am sick of this kind of BS. Next time take a crap on C&B, please first count the number of negative/ abusive posts/ comments ina month and then drop a generalization.
Similar situation with mc79. Tyler/Dennis call a spade a spade. nothing else. I dont understand what problem you have with a contrarian viewpoint?
SumOil: Well, I can answer that one. When you're spending as much time as we do on a team that doesn't win hockey games it's pretty hard to feel positive.
ReplyDeleteAnd then we some knob writes a cheerio item on the internet we become like nutrionists, worrying someone somewhere is having a good time and carefree.
So we punish the sunshine and blue sky because we know that after the warm of the sun and a bottle of suds we're back to being Andry Dufresne doing the laundry at Shawshank.
Imagine Mork in Papillon: it sticks out. I genuinely think it pisses people off when someone is hopeful about the Oilers.
What's more, I understand it. As an old timey guy there are always the 5 Stanley's to fall back on but if you're in your 20's like Tyler and Dennis and RQ (I imagine) then there's the promise of 2006 spring and Marchant on a breakaway against Moog but that's a distant bell.
Shawshank laundry room. Since August 2006. That's a long time.
I can't speak for all the articles, but for the most part C&B offers both sides of the argument.
ReplyDeleteThey have an informative article on Dillon Simpson as a prospect, and along with the negative Redline blurb, there is a positive one from Simpson's school. If the person quoted can be believed, Simpson was the youngest player in the NCAA this past season.
As for the DeadmanWaking post, I am nerd enough to understand the drives and logarithms, but tripped over the Broadway Goring connection...maybe it was a reference to being skewered on the internet, or "Al Gored" by someone with a rapier twitter wit?
...also, cabooses are almost as rare on the railroads now as steam engines...
Ulysses is a walk in a Dublin park compared to Joyce's Finnegan's Wake.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteI have often enjoyed your blog during my self-imposed exile (Masters degree) from coaching. I have learned quite a bit in terms of player evaluation, some of which I hope to implement when I get back behind a bench which may come this fall.
Thanks to you and all the folks in here.
Shawshank laundry room. Since August 2006. That's a long time.
ReplyDeleteI wish I could tell you that the Oilers fought the good fight, and the league let them be. I wish I could tell you that - but the NHL is no fairy-tale world. They never said why Pronger demanded out, but we all knew.
Things went on like that for awhile - Oiler fandom consisted of losing, and then more losing.
Every so often, Pendergast would show up to pick a fresh coke machine.
The losses kept at them - sometimes they were able to fight for 8th, sometimes not. And that's how it went for Oiler fans - that was their routine.
I do believe those five years were the worst for Oiler fans, and I also believe that if things had gone on that way, this team would have got the best of them.
@sumoil
ReplyDeleteYour correct in pointing out my generalization about negative content, especially on C&B. There is plenty of neutral reading there. Lisa is almost perpetually positive.
With some reflection I think LT put it best...
So we punish the sunshine and blue sky because we know that after the warmth of the sun and a bottle of suds we're back to being Andry Dufresne doing the laundry at Shawshank
It's been a long time since we've been able to smile consistently about the team we love. Most of the blogging that sprang up after the '06 run has had nothing but shite to cover. I'm tired of shite and the smell that comes from people writing about it and the rest of us reading about it. I'll refrain from feeding the negative by ceasing to acknowlege the negative from this point forward.
exception: I think TD enjoys as much negative as is out there so I will continue to spite him:)
I don't know how a negative scouting report from RLR is in itself negative.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've seen their top 10 seem to have regularly 5 total busts. (Non-NHL)
In all and all it's a compliment.
I know that this blog has been a gushing testament to the brilliance of Stu MacGregor and I'm aware that it doesn't sit right with many.
ReplyDeleteTo the extent that your Stu-love hasn't sat well with me, it's not because I think you should be negative; the best evidence we have suggests that the Oilers' amateur scouting under him is very good (it's pretty difficult to properly apportion credit in the sort of informational vacuum we're in, so assigning it to the guy on top - Stu - is fair enough). My concern is that you have to be lucky to be good (especially in something that's as inherently crapshoot-ish as drafting), and I'm concerned that some people are chalking this up entirely to skill. The way I look at it, Stu's a centre who's at 70% on the dot so far: that number tells you that i. he's very good, and ii. he's been very lucky. The first should be able to continue indefinitely. The second, less so.
(My concern is somewhat protective, too: I'm concerned that when Stu, on the best available information, happens to draft a series of busts, people will talk about how he's lost his touch, when it's actually more likely to be the vagaries of chance.)
You know, it really is kind of funny. 2005-6 really was the perfect storm - 1D for sale for bit pieces, journeyman Goalie and pluggers at the deadline blue collar team stepping up and over the goliaths, goalie ends up getting hurt off a bad communication with his d-man, and the backup almost takes them to the promised land anyways.
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, rather than bask in the glory of how close a team that probably shouldn't have been there got, all that anyone can do is bemoan how terrible everything has been since that team overacheived. It's clear in hindsight that management was sub-par to the point that in 09-10 (thanks in no small part to players falling to the injury bug like it's the 13th century bubonic plague) the team managed to spend to the salary cap and finish dead last. No mean feat, but since that time, the acknowledgement of the rebuild and the decisions made to support it in the goal of building a perenial contender are going well, thanks again last year to a season of injuries to key players.
I understand that it's hard to like a lot of what this management group has done. Lets be honest - it's really easy to. That being said, there's is a lot to be hopeful for - legitimately hopeful, not just an "if x has a career year, then..."
Anyone can stay bitter and jadded for as long as they choose to. But it is getting old - Just like losing is. You can say that anyone who's hopeful is drinking the oilflavoured coolaid, but I think that speaks more to the mindset that you are in, than it does to the state of the team.
Where does this team finish with average injuries last year, instead of those that target our most skilled players?
This is still a team that managed to defeat the Canucks not once, but twice near the end of the year without 5 of their top 6 forwards, and their best D-man. Lots of people are being cautious in their assesment of the team, but if the injuries are even average this year, I think this team ends up fighting for a playoff spot.
There is a hockey team to bitch and moan about in Alberta, but it looks like it won't be the Oilers this decade. Change your schtick or change your colours. No time for losers because winning is coming back to the city of champions.
Well played commonfan14... well played.
ReplyDelete"I must admit, I didn't think much of The Nuge the first time I laid eyes on him; looked like a stiff breeze would blow him over. That was my first impression of the man."
Steve Smith: Somewhere, Barry Fraser cries a single tear. :-)
ReplyDeleteTough failing the online boating exam is pretty fucking weak.
ReplyDeleteEspecially when you're encouraged to look the answers up.
I'm not sure Hall is quite the lightbulb.
What if he forgot his life jacket? Fuckers. There's a lot to remember......
ReplyDeleteWell at least he ain't Vince Young.
ReplyDeleteThe Wonderlic test results classified him as ''Illiterate''
@ SS - Yea, you do need to be lucky. That being said, there's a reason some people are much better professional poker players than other, and it's not just because they manage to land their card on the river every time. It's clear that he hasn't - Abney, Hesketh, bendfeld are clearly not quality NHLers. But that being said, the vast majority are still in the conversation for NHL position, and are showing VERY well. And with the amount of quality steadily increasing, our sample size is getting to be large enough to actually suggest that he is better than average at the NHL at selecting propects in the draft.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I think that them being successful is much less dependant on the scouting department as it is on the prospect development team, which as also gone from being thought of as an unimportant expense to a critical component of building winning a team. How much better would Pendergast's drafts have been if his players had gotten the same quality of support as Oilers prospects are getting now? I can't answer that, but I'll bet that Stu will look a lot better as a result of that added support. So, if that comparison is already a poor one to make because of this sizable different in development - how do you evalute draft success?
I don't know - any thoughts?
Have the critics taken the boating test? I haven't but I've met others who have failed and apparently to take your 14 footer out to snag a pickeral you need to answer 50 questions about maneuvering the canals of Ottawa and how to communicate with tugboats on the Montreal seaway. Also, apparently open book is whatever notes you happen take take from some 45 min autoplay webinar. Sounds sorta like having to pass a class 1 test to drive a class 5 vehicle.
ReplyDeleteHere's the deal: males spend the first 20 years of their lives walking around with about three thoughts in their head.
ReplyDeleteWhen they're 30, they say to themselves "Jesus I was stupid at 20" and then when they're 40 they realize the dunce cap was still there at 30 and on and on it goes.
Hall may not be able to pass the boating test but he's a little better hockey player than the rest of us so who gives a crap? And on the other hand, I very much doubt anyone cares that we're having fun at his expense.
It's like the time Homer learned to make wine and then forgot how to drive.
"Homey, you were drunk!"
"Boy, was I!"
Here's the description of the exam online:
ReplyDeleteStarting April 15, 2011 boaters will be required to complete a 3 hour Online Study Guide, successfully passing progress questions for each learning module before proceeding to the final exam. The final exam has increased from 36 to 50 questions, and boaters will be required to have a more comprehensive knowledge of boating skills. Online exams no longer have to be supervised and can be completed from any internet connection including the candidate’s private residence.
I dunno. You should probably be able to pass that. With that said, I was more bemused than anything by it. Add in tweets about his truck getting towed and, in many ways, Hall's a pretty typical 19 year old.
@Jordan: I am baffled by the faith that so many of you choose to place in the group of bozos who fucked things up so badly in the first. They didn't decide to be stupid up until 2009-10 and a lot of the stuff since then is pretty easy stuff. They still manage to screw a lot of it up, although it doesn't matter. Fuckups like keeping JFJ around too long and pissing away $1MM on JDD will matter at some point, when these people choose to try to compete. Ditto for the Brule deal or this year's version, the Jones deal.
A lot of you seem to think that there was some skill involved in getting RNH and Hall and that it correlates well with the skillset involved in icing a team that doesn't suck. I'm not exactly sure how the math that leads you to that conclusion works.
Now Tyler
ReplyDeleteRemember
Everyone hates a negative Nellie!
H is for the Hope we all Have
O is for the Ongoin' development in Oklahoma
P is for Phinishing in a higher Place
and
E is being Oiler fan for Ever.
That was beautiful. Shouldn't it be HOPE-R now? With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on board? Or RNHOPE?
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this the other day. Will Hall and RNH be breaking new ground when they eventually join up, or has there ever been another line with 2 first overall picks on it?
ReplyDeleteDid Clark and Sundin ever skate together during Clark's second Leafs stint? I don't know if I would even count that anyway because Clark was past his prime.
Kovalchuck and Heatley were a 1-2 combo, but I can't remember if they actually played together or were split up at EVs in Atlanta.
Interesting question. My first reaction was Pittsburgh but Malkin was a 2.
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ReplyDeletePanties now saying Jets asked for MPS for Bogo and Oilers turned them down - deal now dead per the fat cat.
ReplyDeleteIf that offer actually happened, I think it's nuts that they turned it down. Would have made a ton of sense.
Mario and Crosby were two number ones.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily.
ReplyDeleteBogo showed less ES production than Smac last year.
LT: Well on D it happened. Berard and Phillips.
Houle and Lafleur? That might work.
ReplyDelete@ Common14
ReplyDeleteI really really like MPS. I like him more than Eberle(minority).
Frankly as much sense as Bogosian makes, I am not sad that we turned it down; if the deal was even available.
LT: Goes up to 3 with Wickenheiser.
ReplyDeleteDon't recall if Nolan and Sundin ever played on a line together in Quebec.
ReplyDeleteRibs: They did.
ReplyDeleteI suppose Lecavalier and Stamkos...
ReplyDeleteKovalchuk must have played with Stefan at some point...
ReplyDeleteSometimes I don't understand why fans want to give up draft picks so quickly. A kid like Abney turned 20 this year, is heading into his first year of pro & people say he's washed up & won't make it? How could you possible know this? He's a decent skater, one of the toughest guys in WHL & from what I've read he wants to improve his game. I just don't think we will see the best of Cameron for 3 or 4 years!
ReplyDeleteSimpson is another, 17 years old playing in the NCAA with North Dakota. Having to earn his ice time. Are his skills, skating, strength going to get better over the next few years, of course they will! The Oilers have a fine prospect in Dillon Simpson but only time will tell if he makes the jump to the NHL.
I'm going to agree with Colten Teubert on this one.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I heard Eberle thinks Teubert is a nice guy and a good prospect so I guess that settles it.
Etownman: Abney was a WHL 20 years old 4th liner.
ReplyDeleteHow do you think it'l translate.
@ Tyler:
ReplyDeleteIt's a matter of choice. I could choose to believe that the Oilers brass are incompetent boobs and as you say there is a lot of factual evidence to back it up. However, choosing to believe such also leads me to other conclusions - The team is likely to fail because they are lead by incompetent people, I am following a team doomed to lose, If I were running things they would be doing much better, etc.
Now, I don't know about you, but for me, I have feelings about pretty much everything. Thinking the thoughts I outline leads me to feel frustrated, angry, sad, irritated, afraid... Additionally, my feelings stay with me. There was a time when I could separate myself from them, but I have decided that doing so is unhealthy for me. So I have adapted.
I don't want to feel that way. I recognize that I will feel that way if I hold onto the thoughts/beliefs I mentioned above, and since I do not want feeling that way over hockey, I have chosen to see things differently. And while there is a shit-ton of history to fly in the face of my belief, there are some facts that support it:
Do I think that the Oilers management are geniuses? No.
Does that mean that they cannot build a successful team? No.
Do they have a better development system than they did 5 years ago? Yes
Do they have better prospects than they did 5 years ago? Yes
I choose to believe that the Oilers (the hockey team) can have success. Will they? I don't know. What I do know is that I am a far happier person if I choose to believe that they can. That affects my quality of life, my relationships, and my productivity. Will I be disappointed? Quite likely, especially this coming season. But I'm following hockey to enjoy it. Why get all bent out of shape about it? Its not like I'll enjoy it more - unless I'm a masochist or something.
Life's too short to be pissed off because the Oilers did X.
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ReplyDeleteI choose to believe that the Oilers (the hockey team) can have success. Will they? I don't know. What I do know is that I am a far happier person if I choose to believe that they can. That affects my quality of life, my relationships, and my productivity. Will I be disappointed? Quite likely, especially this coming season. But I'm following hockey to enjoy it. Why get all bent out of shape about it? Its not like I'll enjoy it more - unless I'm a masochist or something.
ReplyDeleteLife's too short to be pissed off because the Oilers did X.
There's a boatload of good sense in those comments. Well said!
Now, I don't know about you, but for me, I have feelings about pretty much everything. Thinking the thoughts I outline leads me to feel frustrated, angry, sad, irritated, afraid... Additionally, my feelings stay with me. There was a time when I could separate myself from them, but I have decided that doing so is unhealthy for me. So I have adapted.
ReplyDeleteHey, that's great for you, if that's how you deal with the world. Beats heroin and putting a gun in your mouth.
I'd suggest though, that if you're determined to traffic in feelings, you don't debate hockey. Saying "The Oilers are going to be good because I have to think that otherwise I get sad" isn't much of an argument. If those are the terms on which you need to engage with the world, well we all need to pursue our bliss; just don't confuse it with an argument.
Critical thinkers, are probably more apt to be realistic on subjects, which probably tends to have more negativity than the average optimist. I don't have a problem with that.
ReplyDeleteThe place where this shit goes off the rails is when the supposed enlightened type comes stampeding into town and guarantees moronic shit like Ryan Whitney will average less than 45 games per season the rest of his career, and considers it legitimate insight that the optimists are too blind to see.
negative thinkers aren't always under the critical thinkers umbrella, i guess, is the moral to this story.
The place where this shit goes off the rails is when the supposed enlightened type comes stampeding into town and guarantees moronic shit like Ryan Whitney will average less than 45 games per season the rest of his career, and considers it legitimate insight that the optimists are too blind to see.
ReplyDeleteSomeone guaranteed this?
pretty much yep.
ReplyDeleteWho was it? DSF? Because it wasn't me.
ReplyDeletePersonally I have just two points about MacGregor. Let's call them pet peeves:
ReplyDelete1. Grading out Stu's record drafting players is not really possible yet. It's like hurling rockets at a distant planet light years away and they all have either intermittent telemetry or none at all. You won't know if you hit the target for years.
2. MacGregor has had more opportunity than any previous Oilers' head scout. This is also an undeniable fact. Trust me, I was not a huge fan of Prendergast ( "Hey Kev, on a scale of 9-10, what do you think of your latest pick?") but that guy never got anywhere near the opportunity afforded Stu.
There. That's it. If anyone thinks that's harsh criticism, then I don't know what to tell you.
Can't quite recall who. Bit it went something like this:
ReplyDeleteI hate to be a buzzkill. (I'm already lying.)
However, it's almost a certainty that Whitney misses time. I'd say the O/U is 45 GP for him every year until he quits.
Monday, July 4, 2011 8:00:00 PM MDT
Oh yeah I definitely said that. I don't equate setting an over/under with a guarantee though. Apparently the only one who would bite under 45 games is DSF.
ReplyDeleteRQ: Those seem like reasonable objections.
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteRQ: Those seem like reasonable objections.
I wouldn't even call them objections. They're really just facts aren't they? It's too early to say and he's had a lot of good picks. I have never once argued that he's dropped the ball making picks. Well, maybe Abney.
I'd add Hesketh to the list of fails.
ReplyDeletepersonally I'm enjoying having something to be optimistic about in MacGregor's picks tracking well.
ReplyDeleteI know, as well as the next guy that these could be Lynch Woywitka redux, but we run with the information we have, and right now things are tracking well.
I guess i don't feel the need to throw Woywitka in anyones face if they express optimism about recent drafts, nor do I consider it indicative of their intelligence. There's usually a larger body of work to draw those conclusions from.
David Hume is my hero. I think skepticism is a healthy way to approach the world, probably even moreso today than when Hume was bootin around. I don't at all think the problem is with expressing negative views. I think it is how the negative is expressed. Opinions often come out way over the top on the Al Gore, seems to be the way it is (and it isn't just negative posts that are guilty of this).
ReplyDeleteHesketh was a bit of a peculiuar case. There were some weird articles and comments floating around about him after his draft year. Seemed like a guy that had emotional issues.
ReplyDeleteI'd add Hesketh to the list of fails.
ReplyDeleteSure, but I didn't complain at the time. Probably didn't care.
The Oilers didn't draft Woywitka. They did want him over Perry though. Ugh.
And if they have prospects crash out like Lynch did there's absolutely no shame in that. An important lesson though - the Oilers could lose a couple good prospects to injuries or the bottle. And the AHL and NHL jumps will cull the herd too.
Is it me or everyone of the ''doubtuous'' picks have been in the 3rd round?
ReplyDelete(Abney, Ewanik, Hesketh''.
Trying to be objective is hard. It eats your emotions and souls. It's a price to pay.
I guess i don't feel the need to throw Woywitka in anyones face if they express optimism about recent drafts, nor do I consider it indicative of their intelligence. There's usually a larger body of work to draw those conclusions from.
ReplyDeleteI'm certainly not throwing draft picks in anyone's face at this point, although I'm not above reminding a prospect running his mouth that he's been spinning his wheels.
With that said, it goes both ways. I'm not ready to call Stu a magnificent bastard yet either.
The thing I don't get is why bother? I mean, take RQ. This is a guy I've enjoyed reading since first seeing him post (can't recall where, maybe HF) and he's always brought good information.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the tone and conversation at this blog appear to irritate the hell out of him. Why bother? If you drop by and it's another facepalm conversation why bother to drop in to crap on it?
For me it goes back to the grop of fans that arrived around the Marchant OT goal. That group has invested a tremendous amount of time in this team and the results are getting worse and worse with (apparently) little chance for contention in sight.
I understand the frustration in cheering--strike that--observing a team that plans to run Khabibulin out there in a suit of lights.
What I don't get is dropping by and being surprised that the conversation is beneath you.
I assume we're all looking to be heard and read by those we respect?
It's a mystery to me, probably the biggest one I can name when it comes to the internet. Why hang out with people you detest?
There has to be a better way to spend a summer evening.
I remember over a decade of religiously following the holidays WJHC tournaments, and rarely ever seeing Oilers prospects playing. A fin here and there, but nothing much.
ReplyDeleteThese days it's becoming more the norm. It's a good thing.
A kid like Abney turned 20 this year, is heading into his first year of pro & people say he's washed up & won't make it?
ReplyDeleteNo one is saying he is washed up and won't make it.
They are saying that if he fulfills the high end of his potential and becomes an NHL 4th minute tough guy its still a wasted pick because you can pick that type of guy up every summer for close to the league minimum.
Why waste a good draft bullet like the 82nd overall on a guy who's ceiling is the type of player that is cheap and easy to get?
I assume we're all looking to be heard and read by those we respect?
ReplyDeleteThere are still commenters here that I respect. There are some that I don't and I usually just ignore them.
Having said that I do lose patience and leave here for extended periods of time.
It's a good question though. If someone or an entire group is being willfully ignorant about a topic you care about, should you point it out or just let them be? Even when you know public opinion can and will affect the process?
Let's say you write a couple of paragraphs describing the performance of the Oilers over the past five years and then replaced the team name with that of a baseball team. If you added a survey of Oiler fans to the bottom of it to see what they thought of Team X's management, how would it play out?
I think they'd skewer the jerks. But they turn a blind eye because it's the Oilers and Kevin Lowe won some Cups. I'd rather it wasn't that way at all.
RQ: I think most Oiler fans are aware of their situation. They are currently sitting on a lot of potential but the management group has shown no real ability to form these kids into anything useful while also overpaying the aged and hanging on to fringe prospects.
ReplyDeleteIt is NOT a well run hockey team. The procurement department and the development department appear to be working hand in hand and the result is that some of these kids are turning pro and not dying on the farm(Hartikainen, Petry).
LOTS wrong with this team. For instance, why wouldn't they go out and get another NHL goalie this summer? Or why wouldn't they get a better option for top 4D than Cam Barker?
I don't think there's a need to point these things out every day. They're part of the furniture. Do I know the town that we live in charges ghastly taxes, or that I spend too much time in my car when gas prices are this high?
Sure do.
But I'm not going to write about taxes or gas prices and I'm not going to rail against the crazy decision to bring NK back this fall because this blog is a release for me, a hobby.
It's not my job to make sure everyone in Edmonton is suitably pissed off at Kevin Lowe.
Never has been.
I came in at the worst time. Can't say I'm a fair weather fan.
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to speak for RivQ but I don't find that your posts are what bug me about the content here. I post here a lot less than I used to, in part because I have better things to do than argue with the smokeblowers, but I don't see anything wrong with the content. It's the commenters who think that the team is a well oiled machine that just needs a few breaks and who blithely praise management for whatever it does who blow my mind.
ReplyDeleteMC: Which gets me back to the age issue. Guys like Clarkenstein, Bruce, Me, the grey hairs here (sorry if I forgot anyone) prattle along (I worry poor Clarkenstein might take flight one day) :-) are (imo) waiting for the owner to decide his friends can't run the team anymore.
ReplyDeleteThe Marchant OT group--MC, RQ, Dennis--are the guys who remind me of that old t-shirt with those two birds on a wire; one of them says "patience my ass, I say we kill something." And I understand that, hell the 1997 or the 2001 or the 2003 and especially the 2005 team was way more fun than watching a team bleed out on coverage and soft goals every night.
And then there's the group that don't remember any of that, recall the Pronger winter and think that things will get better soon.
I don't really have an answer aside from making the blog invite only and that's not really the idea here.
The idea was always exchange of ideas, leave smarter than you walked in.
But yeah, things have changed.
I came in at the worst time. Can't say I'm a fair weather fan.
ReplyDeleteFor me it was during the best of times for the Oil. 1983 watching the young brash upstart tear up the league with my dad. My favourite player was Paul Coffey and his end to end rushes. I could feel my heart skip a beat as a reeled it in behind the net, my spine started to tingle as he crossed the redline, I was on my feet by the time he skated the puck into the o-zone, and leaping with joy with the puck in the back of the net. A fan was made.
Despite trying to shake my interest during the Corson years, I remain. I'm not sure what that says, but I suspect it might not be flattering. :-)
I don't think there's that many here that do that. Theres a few of course, but this is a public blog and that's to be expected.
ReplyDeleteOverall, this is a readership that has a decent grip on the realities of the Edmoton Oilers. I think Oilers fans likely have more of these types due to the efforts of people like yourself and LT.
I'm not sure why anyone would have an issue with you though tyler, maybe the tone urks some people and you have your convictions, but they are always well founded and well defended, and you acknowledge the merits of dissenting voices when appropriate.
Everyone wants to stay as something they were, and in the process, everyone becomes someone different.
ReplyDeleteTake that for what you will.
I'm a lot busier come spring and that's why I don't post here as much during those months. And I don't think I post here as much period because there Does seem to be a certain attitude that success is just around the corner and that a lot of mistakes weren't really mistakes and I don't need to argue that over and over: I have about five years of evidence that tells me all I need.
ReplyDeleteI mean, yeah, I enjoy a lot of LT's stuff and sometimes I'll post a lot, ie like the Penner trade for instance:)
Overall, I think we all know each other enough now to know where the pressure points lay. For me and Ty and Cam - all of us are in our 30's, BTW, with me being the oldest - we're not gonna be satisfied until we win. The mistakes of the past are ever-present and shit isn't sugar no matter if it's in a white packet. So, we get stubborn and dig in our heels and beat things to death.
Guys like Danny and Bookie believe it's gonna be sunny and 25 degrees everyday and also like the idea of promised happiness and the fact that right now you don't have to face the alternate reality.
LT seems level-headed but there's a point with him that if you don't agree with him then he'll go off for an hour and shut down the blog and get mad at me:) He's multi-sided enough to both be gracious enough to send me Dick Williams biography but then later on accuse me of sewering every post on his blog.
He's a fellow who's seen bad and good and isn't as level-headed as he appears to be and overall wants everything to go well.
I apologize for not being "able" to pigeon-hole everyone;)
Ashley: I was introduced in that age bracket as well, in 1983. Even in the days of Bernie Nicholls and Vinny Damphousse, they had a good team, just not a championship one.
ReplyDeleteAnd then it hit rock bottom, trying to pass off prospects like David Oliver and Jason Bonsignore like they were coming to save the day when they actually stunk to high Jebus. Then it was realized, we ain't in Kansas anymore. Fight for survival was on and the fight to be passable was epic.
I guess depending on when you aboarded the Oiler train is the viewpoint you are likely to get. For some people the '80 were glorious but for others they didn't exist other than on DVD.
I, for one, want to thank you LT for putting forth this platform for people all ages, shapes and sizes, to come in and just talk hockey woes and philosophies.
I think what being fan of 2 teams has given me best (Outside of those double hockey nights) is a new and improved perspective.
ReplyDeleteI think it's really easier to adjust expectations.
Dennis, you're a smart guy, but you and moderate are polar ends of the planet. I wouldn't categorize yourself (including RQ), anywhere near the same column I'd place Tyler. You just happen to have the same opinions a lot of the time. Theres a big difference.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to call you out on your sunny comments regarding myself. You're just being willfully ignorant and antagonistic. By all means make an effort to backup your claims in that regard. I have no doubt that you're going to be looking like the space cadet here.
Another major factor with the Oilers is how truly awful and despicable local media. These guys are on the take and always have been. That should get your blood boiling at least a little bit. I find that far more frustrating than any commenter on this blog.
ReplyDeleteI recall a story on here the other day about how Stauffer used to really get after Sather back in the day. Well now that really is sad isn't it? At least we wonder if Matheson is even capable of critical thinking. Stauffer is now on the payroll and Barnes has been excommunicated. It's a sad state of affairs.
a lot of my favourite commenters have gone on to write great blogs (jw, bruce etc) and with others withdrawing, the style of the comments has changed. Before there would be a lot of breakdown from behind the net, now there's a lot of editorial and twitter updates.
ReplyDeletemy .02
Dennis: Did you see where Dick Williams died the other day. Too bad, thousands of Expos stories went with him.
ReplyDeleteYou can google Dick Williams second base and get 1.8M results. The only ones that matter are the ones that include Charlie Finley.
@mc79
ReplyDeleteAre there really that many posters on here that blithely praise management? I just want something to look forward to. Viewing everything through a shit coloured glass just won't cut it.
Danny: if you typed what you meant to, then I don't think I'd consider myself a moderate; and I don't think Ty would consider himself to be one either.
ReplyDeleteBut, like I said, I dig in my heels and beat things to death and it's either by being successful or making better bets that I will become less cynical.
as for my opinions on you, I stand by them. it doesn't mean I don't believe you to be a bright guy but it does mean that everything I've seen you post paints you as a guy who believes that eventual success for this team is a given and that you're one of those guys that things the right decisions are being made even when there's evidence to the contrary.
I'll also add that I clearly remember the dynasty Oilers. I certainly remember the Gretzky trade and the last Cup more vividly than the rest of it, but it's not like I rolled in almost ten years later with the Weight, Smyth, Marchant teams. I don't think that explanation holds any water.
ReplyDeleteI'll also add that I didn't become a remotely knowledgeable fan until about 2002-2003. Prior to that I was like most Oiler fans - not paying attention.
LT: I certainly did; Ian MacDonald wrote about it in the Gazette and I was hoping for me but didn't get it.
ReplyDeleteAnd then I thought of how kind it was of you to send me that book.
thanks again.
This has got to be one of the healthiest discussions I have seen on here in months. I'm feel very proud to have been a part of it.
ReplyDeleteI grew up with the Oilers. I was just old enough to remember the last cup, and then the pain and sadness that followed. The years in the wilderness. The david vs. goliath years. The futility leading up to the lockout. The wonder of 05-06, and the shit show afterwards.
I'm not a guy who thinks that the Oilers are a break away from being contenders. But I can see that the pieces are there for them to become contenders in a couple of years. THAT is why I am hopeful. I cheer for the team, and while management has been rogering the hell out of it and the fans for several years, that is not the fault of the players on the ice who don the blue, white and orange. They are the ones that matter to me. They are the people I cheer for because they are the ones who wear the oil drop.
I understand many of you see things differently, and that's great. It brings a different view than mine forwards, and broadens the world that I see. Thank you for doing so, especially when it challenges mine. It forces me to think more deeply about what I believe, and why. That is what I see as the true value of this blog, and the people who congregate here.
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ReplyDeleteDennis, like I said, give examples because you're talking out of your ass.
ReplyDeleteYou become so entrenched in your opinion that anyone with a view that falls the nth degree outside that scope, You build a narrative and vilify people that disagree.
Latest example being me thinking drafting top 3 next draft would be more valuable in the long term than adding a vet center to mentor the kids in 2011. You conveniently ignore the fact that I suggest 2012 is a better time to start signing vets. You ignore that I can get behind signing vets now if we can maximize the 2012 pick before it becomes pointlessly deflated via superfluous improvements like Reasoner would yield in 2011. You categorize me as something I'm completely not, just to suit your narrative.
I would categorize Tyler as a moderate. To me that's what people who ingest information, develop opinions, evolve ideas, are. Moderate doesn't mean being polite during discourse.
I started following the Oil in the WHA. Bill Hunter was a GREAT promoter but at the outset he signed everybody who played for the Oil Kings. Some of those guys were the definition of mediocre. That truly did not work out too well.
ReplyDeleteThe Eighties were sunshine, bliss and even when we lost and we did lots early,..... the kids truly understand "Go big, or go home". When they started to win: they owned victory.
The 90's hurt. Bad players, bad prospects, no money and disinterested management.
06 was a fluke. Outstanding balance (albeit no goalie), a single superstar who could play 1/2 of the game. Unbelievable characteristic... quiet ice for 1/2 of the game.
Love the picks (and I agree with some here that with MPS and Eberle that there is an element of luck), greatly appreciate the effort the Oil are putting into development but not sure that the guys driving the bus into the ditch are the guys to drive to multiple championships.
Expect LT is right....at some point Katz will realize his friends do not need to manage this team at some point.
Think everyone here wants Oilers to routinely compete for 2-3-4 rounds in playoffs. Differences mostly arise around "when" and "what is best model" to achieve that goal. Danny, Ducey and others are prepared to tolerate a longer "bad" to get better picks. I do understand that reasoning.
Just do not think I could take another 30th overall. Even for a real good D man. Equally, FFS not sure I can take another year of seeing 3 guys taking draws in the low 40's.
I think Steve Tambellini is a little underapreciated.
ReplyDeleteI feel like it's bullshit when some people say the things he has done correctly are a given.
The Wild is a good exemple of a team where Tambo's strenght have been lacking (Amateur).
I'd say MBS had more ''good prospects'' in 1 draft then they've had since 2004.
It's just not that rare to find teams inept at the draft table and at development.
As for the Bulin', Fraser and JFJ' thingies, even good organization will commit to that kind of stuff.
I know I use Montreal often but it's my other team. They've been drafting like the best of the bunch, but at the same time they made the Gomez trade. But so far the good's outweighting the bad so we have had a shot at the cup in the post-lockout era.
The Hawks fucked up their RFA offers.
The Penguins overpayed Fleury by 3,5 M$
And it goes on.
It's not like we had a plethora of NHL ready guys for JFJ and Fraser, even if they were abominations.
Same for Bulin, when the kids resign he'l be off the books.
This year began Tambo's ''crunchtime'' when the moves he made were in areas that matter and he responded well.
He signed the ideal 3rd line center, didn't go fish on what was a very thin D UFA market, and took a bet on a guy with high reward risk.
He rebuilt the entire amateur section of the organization and it's no small fee. And now he's had a good summer.
Every management will commit doubtful acts. It's just a question of where it actually leads you.
a lot of my favourite commenters have gone on to write great blogs (jw, bruce etc) and with others withdrawing, the style of the comments has changed. Before there would be a lot of breakdown from behind the net, now there's a lot of editorial and twitter updates.
ReplyDeleteThis is very, very true. The comments section couldn't re-sign all of it's free agents and they went elsewhere. Don't worry, when LT sells his blog to a billionaire hand-wash salesman, everything will be all better.
I think part of it too is that the team is in the sewer and it's hard to be very critical of their on ice performance right now. The numbers game is just depressing when you look into things these days.
I think things will pick up around here once the club starts to look like they can go somewhere.
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ReplyDeleteI've seen you champion the rebuild for long enough that I think it's only fair to put you in a certain category.
ReplyDeleteI can understand not wanting to sap some of the 2012 pick by deciding to be less than terrible....if you're a guy that believe that everything has to be absolutely perfect before you start to make improvements to your club.
For my money all the guys who become tumescent - hat-tip to The Wire S5:) - over the idea of high draft after high draft become drunk on the idea of next year and content in the fact that if you don't try, you don't have to feel like you failed.
I'm not content with that idea; nor am I content that Lowe and his boy are the ones to do the job.
So, when I see a Penner trade, it's not enough for me that they picked up A prospect. It's about what else was in the Kings system and how much 27 cost and just how valuable he was to the team.
I considered support for that deal to be blind on either the side of the package returned or the side that just about everything must go that's not numbered 4, 14 or 91.
my HF days were under the moniker 'dynastydays'. They were wrought with piss and vinegar, and nobody ever accused me of being an optimist thats for sure. I was a douchebag mostly but definitely more realistic than most of the usual cheerleader types.
ReplyDeleteAnyways...
Regarding the draft, my opinion has been clearly explained multiple times. You can get lazy with your getting drunk on drafting quips, but they don't apply to me.
My stance was that this team cant make the playoffs until 2012-13 or 2013-14. They will likely be a lottery team in '11-12 regardless of what stopgap measures are implemented.
I still stand by that.
So, I'm saying that delaying the signing of guys like Smyth/Belanger an extra year would have made more sense than finishing 22nd.
In lieu of that, I was game for moving the 2012 first rounder at the 2011 draft, hoping to move into 4th and draft Larsson, while the pick had 1st overall optics still attached.
In regards to the Penner deal, i didnt have a strong opinion either way except on one aspect. If he wouldn't extend his contract, he should be traded at the deadline.
We have incomplete information on the rest of the details (willingness to resign, packages available to tambellini) so I haven't made any endorsement or condemnation of the trade particulars. certainly not to the extent that I've decided I know how everything shook down, and now I'm running amok with my trusty tar and feathers.
It would have been nice to see them get the best prospects from LA, but tha fact they didnt doesnt tell us a whole lot.
I 100% want a new management team from top to bottom. I don't see the logic in sticking with guys for a rebuild that buried you in the cellar to begin with. I'd assume thats basic sense amongst most.
I don't know why I even bother because a few montsh from now you're just going to make some other ignorant summation of my opinions, and I'll probably be gullible enough to take the bait again.
@ SS - Yea, you do need to be lucky. That being said, there's a reason some people are much better professional poker players than other...
ReplyDeleteSure (and I'm a lousy poker player - I get bored if I fold pre-flop on more than a couple of consecutive hands, and make stupid raises just to amuse myself. And, in my defense, it succeeds at my objective of amusing myself). But are you going to make that determination after four tournaments, or however many drafts Stu's run?
And as Rivers or Tyler or somebody similarly intelligent but hostile posted just above, that's not even a fair comparison, since you can evaluate a poker player's performance in a tournament right after that tournament ends, while you need to wait a few years before the tale of a draft is told.
Again, best evidence is that MBS is a pretty good NHL amateur scout (and to be towards the top of that class presumably puts you towards the top world-wide). But given sample size and recentness, the best evidence is not yet perfect evidence.
the Oilers Never get the best prospects. why is that I wonder?
ReplyDeleteBecause Lowe is still in charge, using his puppet to make deals, and despite having carte blanche at everyone elses prospects, he chooses the wrong ones? Amirite?
ReplyDeleteI have no idea why they didn't get different prospects. I'd assume the amateur scouting department and pro scouts could identify the best prospects, and anything after that is behind closed doors.
we don't know why they don't get the best ones; we just know they Don't.
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