Saturday, July 23, 2011

The Best of Kevin Prendergast

Kevin Prendergast was the Oilers' chief scout from 2001-07. Seven years, very few picks inside the top 10 (actually: ONE) and it's safe to say he never reached the popularity and fame enjoyed by Barry Fraser or Stu MacGregor.

I have always felt that Prendergast's track record was average or a hair above average. As mentioned he never did enjoy a 1st overall selection or even one in the top 5. KP had real success in the 2nd round of many drafts and was a champion of the overage draftee back when NHL teams could select men in their 20's.

KP'S top 5
  1. Ales Hemsky, 13th overall in 2001: Mr. Prendergast himself lists this (or has in the past) as his best draft selection, and as luck would have it #83 was his first pick as head man. I well remember that draft year and Hemsky was not the obvious pick at #13. I held out hope the Oildrop would choose Red Deer Rebel Colby Armstrong and there were other talents available, but this was a home run.
  2. Jarret Stoll, 36th overall in 2002: A draft re-entry, I remember his selection for rumblings from other NHL teams about an unspoken rule: you don't draft kids on re-entry higher than they were taken the first time. Like many of the NHL's unwritten rules, it is idiotic and small minded and the type of rule that kept hockey's old men from expanding until concerns over the WHL's expansion forced their hand. Stoll has been a solid NHL player for years.
  3. Sam Gagner, 6th overall in 2007: Gagner still has time to move up this list and I think he's tracking well. His progress can be measured, and even small steps are impressive as he's done it for a team going the wrong way. Three NHL coaches in his 4 NHL seasons isn't a record, but I think he'd benefit from consistency behind the bench.
  4. Matt Greene, 44th overall in 2002: It took some time for Greene to mature--his play in the 2006 SC playoffs could best be described as costly--but he's a solid rock on the blue for the LAK. The Oilers could use one just like him on their own blue.
  5. Kyle Brodziak, 214th overall in 2003: Back in the HF boards days and about a year after the 2003 draft, I started a post that asked about Brodziak versus Pouliot and comparing them as offensive players. I don't know that the answer to that question has been solved but Brodziak is the clear winner in the race to establish himself as an NHLer.
Plus there's a few (Dubnyk, Petry, Cogliano, Peckham) who may one day rival or pass the names on this list. I don't think KP was as good as MBS of the Mexican Marauder but there's some quality here. At the end of the day, the first round picks miles from this list (Niinimaki, Schremp, Pouliot, Plante, Nash) probably cost him his job.

Nation Radio is on Team 1260 at noon Edmonton time today. A very interesting group is scheduled to appear:
  • Kent Wilson from the Nations sites, Hockey Prospectus and the Score. Kent scored a new gig with the Nations that will see him add a lot of impressive content across the board. We'll also discuss the Jets, Calgary's efforts to have many, many men over 35 on their opening night roster and some other fun things.
  • Scott Reynolds from Copper and Blue. The C&B folks are doing their top 25 under 25 and we'll discuss that and some Oiler related news (and if we have time touch on the NW division for 11-12).
  • Corey Graham, play by play man for the Edmonton Oil Kings and host of Edmonton Sports Night live on Team 1260. I'll ask Corey about the Oil Kings and their chances in 11-12, we'll talk a little about the World Juniors and touch base on the sweeping changes that we've seen in the dub this summer.
  • Gabriel Desjardins, one of the true innovators in the field of advanced stats. Gabriel is an interesting character and we'll discuss the return of his Jets to Winnipeg (well not really, but the Jets are back!) the moves made by the team so far and a couple of interesting articles he's written recently. 
Questions and comments are welcome at nationradio@theteam1260.com and I hope you can tune in.

25 comments:

  1. I may have to take a look at this LT, my first reaction would be that KP was below average. I like Brodziak a lot but if that's the fifth best of his picks then I think that says a lot. Of course a lot of the story needs to be written, if the later guys like Peckham, Petry and Omark turn into quality players then we'll look at KP differently I think but all of those missed first rounders, my god.

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  2. BD: Well if it helps I'm in the minority. :-) Most of the reasons Oiler fans get angry at KP is his record in the first round. I understand that, but there are considerations to keep in mind there too.

    Also, and this is no excuse, a large number of picks had serious injuries (Doug Lynch, Pouliot) early on and by the time 2007 came along (and he had three first rounders in a poor draft year) there were some questions about his ability.

    The 2nd rd save his record imo.

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  3. Benjamin Massey of C&B stated the other day that Peckham is at this point the second best defenseman from the 2006 draft. That sounded crazy, but I checked and I think he's right - Erik Johnson is the only guy who's clearly better and most of the other D taken that year look like AHL players or fringe NHL players at best.

    If Petry turns into a regular NHL player then KP will have drafted two of the three best defensemen in the 2006 draft. That's got to count for something.

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  4. The Best of Kevin Prendergast

    ...wow, it was longer article than I thought it would be.

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  5. I thought this "top 5" Kevin Prendergast list was going to stop at Hemsky... :P

    But seriously, I think Peckham is a very underrated prospect. First "full" NHL year was last year, and he looked like our best d-man many a night. I don't think fans fully appreciate what we have here just yet. He will climb the list, at the very least passing Matt Greene one day.

    I also think Jeff Petry will one day climb into that top 5.

    What about Linus Omark? He could make a case for himself in the future too.

    I understand that this is a top 5 for the now though, but I'm just saying that eventually this list will be revised, and I think we'll see those names in it.

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  6. Off topic I know, but just wanted to mention that IMHO Winnipeg did an absolutely fantastic job with their new logo. With modern day design tools, there's always that temptation to go over the top. The Jets did it right. Simple, bold, timeless. Not often you can say that about a new logo. Real clever how they integrated the jet into the maple leaf and tied in the RCAF heritage with the roundel. This team is going to sell a ton of merch.

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  7. We'll need a couple more years to get a better read on KP (and for the matter on MBS too). For right now, all the arrows are pointing in the right direction for MBS, but ultimately time will tell.

    But I gree that are 4 who could potentially restore his reputation - Peckham (3rd rounder who made good), Dubnyk (1st rounder) Petry (2nd rounder)and Omark (4th rounder).

    He sure went about it the hard way though.

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  8. A comparison with Montreal's scouting department:

    (Savard + Timmins)

    Top 10:

    1. Tomas Plekanec
    2. P.K Subban
    3. Carey Price
    4. Mark Streit
    5. Andrei Kostitsyn
    6. Mikhail Grabovski
    7. Sergei Kostitsyn
    8. Max Pacioretty
    9. Guillaume Latendresse
    10. Chris Higgins


    Other notables:

    Mcdonagh, Weber, D'agostini, Lapierre, O'byrne, White.


    Seems to me Edmonton was down the drain for that sequence.

    I know MTL has one of the best conversion%, but it's bad when another team's ''Notables'' beats a guy on your top 5.

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  9. XXX-XXX-Hemsky
    XXX-Gagner-Cogs
    XXX-Stoll-Omark
    Reddox-Brodziak-MAP
    Storitini-Schremp

    XXX-Greene
    Peckham-XXX
    XXX-Petry
    Chorney

    Dubnyk
    Markanen
    JDD

    Last year:
    Gagner, 15G 27A #49C
    Stoll, 20G 23A 43P #47C
    Brodziak. 16G 21A 37P #61C

    Jesus!

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  10. Wow, we drafted a lot of Vin Diesel's in the KP era.

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  11. The Worst of KP

    I remember an interview Sportsnet (methinks) did with KP in that abysmal season where the Oilers' NHL AHL and ECHL clubs were last place in their divisions. When asked why this was the case, KP managed to respond in the most horrifying way. The gist: each club was actually doing very well, lots of progress being made in the development of prospects, and that the last places were due to injury and bad luck. I felt my uvula do its vomit-inducing-sweat-thing as this incredulous speech rolled off. Suddenly, however, a strange thing happened. KP calmly and soothingly spoke about how everything was going to be just fine. In fact, with a few more wins per month, playoffs were not altogether unrealistic. I felt myself excited for the playoffs, heck, maybe just like '06: sneak in, and who knows? Then reason abruptly pulled me out of my trance. I had been duped within seconds. KP was like some crazy Flat-Earth apologist or used-car salesman who could talk you into believing almost anything contrary to the truth. I almost started handing out the tracts; almost bought the '82 Lada. The truth was these teams were , and here was this upper management guy charismatically feeding us utter drivel by the shovelful knowing that us loser-fans would continue listening to his yarn. Hopefully the optimism-when-losing days are behind us, and the pessimism-when-winning days are on the way.

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  12. Kp: reputation? Go to hockey Db and look were he picked. Lok at who he picked t and the choices in between

    You might think he failed at the first round. Look at the viable players between oilers #1 and Choice in 2nd round. But two of his choices were Gm driven situational choices.
    2001: hemsky nuf said
    2002:Ninimaki-Gordon-Grebeshkov-Babchuk, Bergenheim, Steen, Ward-JDD
    2003: Pendergast wanted Getzlaf, oilers thought they could trade down and get him. KP would have taken Getzlaf if not for GM
    2004:Schremp is sellected because he is viewed as a value risk at #25. if he is picked before then the choices of 18 picks Dubnyk-Schultz, green, Bolland-Tesliuk
    2005: 10 choices: Cogliano-Neal-Vlasic-Chorney 1/5 chance of being better than our choices so 4/5 chance of being worse.
    2006: No first
    2007: 45 picks Gagner-#15-,#30,#36, Blum, Perron, Subban Simmonds- I will throw Nash on Stu. So a 1/15 chance of getting a player with the three picks from 15-60.

    So what i see is :
    2001: home run
    2002: 4/5 chance of get #1 correct , JDD 2nd, Stoll2nd, Greene 3rd. Home run
    2003: getzlaf if he is allowed to pick. Home run but for the GM Stortini, Brodziak
    2004:Schremp gets picked we get Dubnyk and Schultz. Gm chosen risk. Reddox. Dubnyk may still make it a home run.
    2005: Cogliano, Chorney, pretty much nailed the best options. in that position. Maybe stastny 10 picks after Chorney. VDV 4th
    2006: Petry, Peckham home run
    2007: terrible draft Gagner #6 clear top 10 no chance for nailing the other picks. Omark 4th Home run.

    You look at it the guy got the best he could 4 of & and let him pick Getzlaf and schremp gone he is 6 of 7.

    His drafts look worse cause Lowe meddled in the 2003 and 2004 drafts.

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  13. Curious to know when it was that Barry Fraser actually moved to Mexico...mentally and/or physically?

    His draft record was certainly stellar when the Oilers first entered the league, but the list of first round busts - or 'fringe players' at best - starting in 1984 is actually mind-boggling.

    Selmar Odelein (21st overall'84), Scott Metcalfe (20th overall'85), Kim Issel (21st overall '86), Peter Soberlak (21st overall '87),Francois Leroux 19th overall '88), Jason Soules (15th overall '89), Scott Allison (17th overall '90), Tyler Wright (12th overall '91), Joe Hulbig (13th overall '92),Nick Stajduhar (16th overall '93), Jason Bonsignore (4th overall'94), Steve kelly (6th overall '95), Boyd Devereaux 6th overall '96), Matthieu Descoteaux (19th overall '96), Michel Riesen (14th overall '97), Michael henrich (13th overall '98), Jani Rita (13th overall '99), Alexei Mikhnov (17th overall '00).

    Looking back at that list is enough to make me nauseous all over again.

    The only first round picks to become quality NHL players in 18 years - that's right EIGHTEEN years - of drafting were Martin Rucinsky, Ryan Smyth, and Jason Arnott.

    The proverbial blind-folded monkey throwing darts could have done better I would say.

    I agree with BD, in that I have always felt Kevin Prendergast even below 'average', but Barry Fraser....WTF?!

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  14. Ricki: You can't exclude Higgins from the calculation in '02. The Oilers traded down to get Niinnimaki, so they very specifically had him in mind over Higgins and the rest of the back half of the first round.

    Higgins hasn't exactly lived up to his early scoring totals, but he's become a useful player on a contender.

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  15. I should have mentioned the Oilers had 21 first round picks in those 18 years.

    And yeah, if Prendergast had selected Getzlaf, it would absolutely put him in an entirely different light.

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  16. Alright I just did a not so quick run through of the KP era for every club in the league. By my count there are seventeen clubs with clearly better draft records than Edmonton and only a few who are clearly worse. The rest of them well you can argue either way depending on what you think of the players selected.

    The good thing for KP is that he is still on the clock - if Peckham, Omar, Petry and Dubnyk all turn out then he may actually jump ahead of a few clubs. Problem is nearly every club is in the same situation. The tale remains to be told.

    But right now? He's a loser, which is no surprise, there is a reason the Oilers have been terrible for years now and drafting is a big part of it.

    I'll be posting what I can at my site over the weekend if you are interested.

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  17. Buffalo with -4M$ money.

    They need to resign Myers and Ennis next year.

    Vanek/Pominville on the go?

    (It would be stupid considering the Leino signing)...

    Looking back at CBJ's roster it makes you wonder why in the hell they traded Klesla.

    All they would need to complete the puzzle is him. Now they got nothing after Upshall signed elsewhere.

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  18. Doogie: unaware of the trade down in 2001: wedding year with first wife. Good to know management made the decision on the trade down to Ninnimaki. Was it kp or euro scout that cased that. what you are telling me is he could be 7/7 and out of a job at Klowes influence.

    Plus this is first draft were Stu has had to make decisions in the first. KP would have taken the same 08, 09, 10. the diffrence may be from round 2 two on. kp usually got one or two home runs in the later rounds.

    But how do you fuck up the position macgregor has been in?

    You draft Daigle #1 overall in 2011. sure as heck hope he does not end up being that. cause klefbom may be the only saving grace.

    If that happens stu may start to look like fraser.

    one and a half good drafts and down hill.

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  19. With the developement side of things better now and going forward, I'll throw out there that it's hard to compare procurement of KP and MacGregor. Stable farm teams of their own did not Edmonton have much of last decade. Good times ahead folks.

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  20. One thing that I think needs to be taken into account when looking at KP's record is the sheer volume of bullets the guy was given year after year at the draft table. He picked some nice players, but one would think the Oilers had a much higher number of picks then the average team during that period.

    People have crunched the percent chance that draftees of each round have of playing 200 NHL games. I don't recall the numbers exactly, but I think it goes something like this(please correctme if my numbers are off):

    1st round-50%
    2nd round-25%
    3rd round-20%
    4th round-15%
    5-9 round-6%

    KP had 9 first rounders. Thus far only 2 have reached the 200 games mark. 22%Only if all of Dubnyk, Nash, and Plante pan out will KP make it above average.

    KP had 11 second rounders. Success rate thus far: 18% Could go as high as 36% if Petry, and Jacques make the cut.(if you don't count JFJ as a hockey player then KP can make it to 27%)

    KP had 7 third rounders. Success rate thus far: 14%. Stortini barely makes the cut. If Peckham progresses we are at 28%. Arguements about whether Stortini would have played on a decent NHL team aside, it looks like the third round is one where KP has reasonable success.

    KP had 7 fourth rounders. 0% thus far. If Omark stays out of the Bobby Nilsson career track, it could go up to 14%.

    KP had 33 5+ round picks. The lone hit is Brodziak. 3%I consider Markkanen to be the equivalent of a free agent signing rather then a testament to amateur scouting. He was 27 when drafted afterall. Jussi didn't make it to 200 games anyway.

    This way of looking at KP's drafting is not very flattering. Solidly below average in nearly every round thus far, and needs some help from his most recently drafted prospects to get to passable in a few rounds.

    Overall, I would have to consider his tenure a net liability to the Oilers org.

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  21. If that happens stu may start to look like fraser.

    As long as Stu continues to do his work and doesn't start thinking he is smarter than everyone else, I doubt it.

    There have been lots of directors in similar situations to Stu that have screwed up. Look at CLB, STL, NYI, ATL, FLA (until recently) etc There are lots of teams who have been in the lottery for a decade and still can't get it right.

    Fraser had some success early picking off the map and tried to replicate that every year. If he was a golfer, he would be trying to hit his 3 iron 235 yrs to an island green just to show everyone he could do it.

    Stu has made his picks from guys in the range and seems to have a clear idea of what he is looking for (size, character, compete). His players tend to be well rounded. Even his smaller players have some spunk.

    I still can't figure out why he drafted Kellen Jones instead of someone with some projection - but thats a minor issue.

    KP seemed to settle for one dimensional guys with hope they would develop other dimensions. For the most part, they have not.

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  22. I would rank fifteen clubs as being clearly ahead of the Oilers from 2001 to 2007 when it comes to drafting. And that is excluding top five picks. Just look at the picks after those spots.

    I would rank them as clearly ahead of a half dozen or so. The remaining clubs are all in the same range and I guess it depends on how you rate guys but its pretty easy to argue that they are in the bottom third of the league in that draft period.

    The 2006 and 2007 kids might save it but right now its horrible. There's a big reason this club has been a bottomfeeder for a while now. Pendergrast's drafting isn't even in the same ballpark.

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  23. Why are these two idiots calling the game of the week? Where's Cuthbert? Has Toronto figured out that he's better than pornstar Rod Black?

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  24. It's awful. The difference in crews is HNIC calibre at this point.

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  25. I really disagree on the new Jets logo.

    It looks cold and robotic.

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