Since we do have some information available to us going back about 15 years, I thought it might be an idea to write it down so we could have a starting point. I'm going to pay close attention centermen until they're age 27; after that we can assume they're either 50% or better, of were moved to the wing.
Perhaps we can get some insight into the current group of young C's and their development in this very important and under-reported area of the game.
1997-98
- Jason Arnott (22) 51.8% 577 sorties (traded)
- Todd Marchant (24) 49.6% 220 sorties
- Mats Lindgren (22) 49.0% 1377 sorties
- Tony Hrkac (31) 48.3% in 482 sorties
- Doug Weight (26) 47.6% in 1481 sorties
- Rem Murray (24) 40.2% in 629 sorties
- Boyd Devereaux (19) 39.1 in 243 sorties
1998-99
- Josef Beranek (28) 50.2% in 1251 sorties
- Todd Marchant (25) 50% in 1449 sorties
- Doug Weight (27) 49.5% in 853 sorties
- Rem Murray (25) 48.1% in 1013 sorties
- Mats Lindgren (23) 47.9% in 363 sorties (traded)
- Boyd Devereaux (20) 42.8% in 409 sorties
1999-20
- Jim Dowd (30) 54% in 720 sorties
- Josef Beranek (29) 53.4% in 558 sorties (traded)
- Todd Marchant (26) 52.9% in 1593 sorties
- Rem Murray (26) 50.5% in 303 sorties
- Doug Weight (28) 50.4% in 1588 sorties
- Chad Kilger (22) 48% in 269 sorties
- Boyd Devereaux (21) 34.8% in 241 sorties
2000-01
- Dom Pittis (25) 54.8% in 367 sorties
- Todd Marchant (27) 53.8% in 1549 sorties
- Chad Kilger (23) 53.4% in 391 sorties
- Doug Weight (29) 51.3% in 1514 sorties
- Rem Murray (27) 49.3% in 694 sorties
- Mike Comrie (20) 43.3% in 372 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (22) 41.8% in 122 sorties
2001-02
- Marty Reasoner (24) 55.5% in 470 sorties
- Todd Marchant (28) 52.4% in 1523 sorties
- Rem Murray (28) 50.9% in 825 sorties
- Mike Comrie (21) 47.3% in 1198 sorties
- Anson Carter (27) 46.5% in 316 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (23) 46.3% in 454 sorties
CURRENT TEAM
- Gilbert Brule (23) 53.2% in 154 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (32) 49.2% in 535 sorties
- Colin Fraser (25) 43.7% in 387 sorties
- Dustin Penner (28) 42.3% in 253 sorties
- Sam Gagner (21) 41.8% in 729 sorties
- Andrew Cogliano (23) 41.8% in 579 sorties
- Taylor Hall (18) 37.6% in 93 sorties
How do we know this? Well, Horcoff enjoyed more experienced wingers in 2005-06 and posted a 52.7% at age 27. That puts him in the range with Marchant. Although Horcoff has endured injuries since the Stanley run, I think much of his falloff in the category can be attributed to the youth on this club.
I'll post the rest of the numbers later, but wanted to post this because it has some value.
One final note: how about that Brule number? Why don't they play him at center. He has a skill, they need to use it.
LT, do you know whether the Oiler ~brain trusts~ would have had the smarts to try to sign Brendan Morrison when he was released by the Canucks? Decent face-off numbers, a guy that plays with heart and has put up 32 pts for the Lamers so far. Not bad for $725K! When I saw he was available after camp, I had hoped the Oilers would give him a look as I believe he had 40+ points with the Caps the year before?
ReplyDeleteBased on what we know about this management group, I can say with authority they were extremely unlikely to call Morrison.
ReplyDeleteOr anyone.
The Oilers transact business at the deadline and in summer. During the first 50 games its sleep time.
As for Brule not playing centre, well Brule isn't playing wing either, right?
ReplyDeleteI guess he was sort of used as a pitch hitter in the faceoff circle for Cogliano, though not as often as some might have expected.
Brule skates well, has a decent shot, wins draws and plays a physical brand of hockey for his size, but the knocks on him are probably a combination of decision making/ passing ability, and defensive play.
I'm guessing you threw the Brule question out there more to stimulate discussion.
I'd be interested to see a faceoff stat for wingers thats tied into each center (sort of a with or without you stat) to see how much affect they truly have on a centers success on the dot.
ReplyDeleteI remember that feeling during the playoff run when Stoll would line up for a faceoff.
ReplyDeleteThat confidence that in a few seconds you would see the puck squirt back to one of our defencemen.
Man we could really use a Stoll right now.
As any fan of the current Edmonton Oilers knows, faceoffs are damned important and own zone faceoffs are teaching every Oiler fan a lesson about their value in 10-11 (and before).
ReplyDeleteExcuse me?
Where's the proof? I've only ever seen analyses that diminish the importance of face-offs, so I'd like to see your evidence of anything at all, let alone consensus.
The Oilers are bad at a lot of things, particularly puck battles, so I'm not sure you can prove the ones from set pieces are more important than the other ones they lose all over the ice routinely.
Having said all that, pushing 40% might be uncharted territory. Still we have no frame of reference to make a decision whether to give more icetime to a player we know is poor in Brule just because of face-offs.
LT, I just don't buy it that faceoffs are "damned important". Like anything, it's better to be good than to be bad, but I know that Tyler did some work over at MC79 that showed that an absolutely abysmal faceoff record really only equates to a standings point or two and really we have bigger fish to fry.
ReplyDeleteI would much rather see a centre that can PK, PP or play a solid two-way game than win faceoffs.
Sorry, didn't see Rivers post there and didn't mean to pile on with that.
ReplyDeleteAn aside, though. Conan, you realize that even a fantastic face-off guy is going to send the puck squirting back to your defencemen roughly half of the time, right? Yeah, the Oilers may be historically bad at this but over time the sample size becomes so wide that it basically becomes a wash in almost every case.
(Going on a bit of a tangent, one thing I haven't seen explored and don't have the knowledge to explore myself is whether or not this is a systems thing more than a talent thing. Really, what are the odds that EVERY center is losing most of their faceoffs over two or three years? Is Renney not having the wingers give the necessary support or what?)
Top 10 FO%:
ReplyDeleteVAN, SJS, WSH, DET, PHX, FlA, CBJ, NJD, NYI, LAK
Average points%: 502,7
Bottom 10 FO%:
EDM, CAR, NYR, BUF, ANA, CGY, STL, ATL, PHI, COL,
Average points%: 541,9
Sorry Top 10's win% is:
ReplyDelete552,7
FPB, do you think that's proof?
ReplyDeleteThe needle on the dial didn't even quiver.
I would be interested in knowing what the maximum percentage in improvement we can see in a developing center.
ReplyDeleteIf it is say a maximum of 2% then there isnt much hope for our group but if the average improvement is say 7% with experience then there is hope.
I would be interested if anyone knows if this research is available
Where's the proof? I've only ever seen analyses that diminish the importance of face-offs, so I'd like to see your evidence of anything at all, let alone consensus.
ReplyDeleteI hate to be "that guy", but you just have to watch the games to see how important faceoffs are. I've seen the analysis that has been done as well and I just can't come to terms with it. There just can't be any way that losing faceoffs doesn't lead to scoring chances against. How many times have you seen a guy lose a faceoff in the defensive zone and the puck ends up on the opposing defensemans stick ripe for a shot on net?
Brule at center for the entire season (without injuries) instead of Cogliano would have probably been a decent idea.
RiversQ: Please. I didn't even assess on one side or the other. I simply put up data.
ReplyDeleteAnyone knows how much time a fractured femural bone would take to recover?
Are there situations where a winger takes the majority of draws. If not, why?
ReplyDeleteThe role of center during gameplay is a skill that is totally unrelated to the skill of a center in the faceoff circle. It's a bit like pitching and batting.
So, one would think that there would be cases where a guy who's skating ability fits better at wing, but who would have the natural skills to be a great faceoff individual.
I think every player should be trained in faceoffs and practice them and then you have the best player on the line take the draw regardless of position. Right after the draw everyone reverts back to their position.
Seems to me to be the logical way to approach it.
IMO the 2 biggest needs on this roster are a veteran C who can take those crucial face-offs, and can play a two-way game, and an experienced solid defending RD who can skate and check.
ReplyDeleteIf 3.0 punts this again for yet another last in the league finish in 11-12 will the fans show up?
I'd like to see 67 take more draws too - especially on the PK if he has a knack for it - but the kid's got a ten-cent head and I doubt he'd know what to do after he won the draw.
ReplyDeleteI guess the papers will talk about that signing after he's dealt but if the Oilers had every intention of letting the three kids make the team then it was dumb to give 67 anything resembling real money.
Back to the post and interesting to see the '01 team putting up some real FO numbers because that was the club who had the nine game winning streak and really came together once Comrie got comfortable. You had Weight with the lesser linemates, Comrie with the best wingers and then a great bunch of foot soldiers in MGMM plus the kid Horcoff.
When I look at these faceoff numbers I don't see how 89's able to survive and especially not if 4 gets another shot at pivot; though that might have been another one of Renney's bullshit balloons that the press always keep jumping for.
Also, you look at that D last night and you realize that we need Jesus Christ Whitney to be healthy Plus another good D and that last piece is likely gonna have to come trade-wise.
I personally think passing percent is much more important than face off.
ReplyDeleteThis team has so many problems linking more than one pass its pathetic! The amount of times the puck is turned over in this fashion is much more important than face offs
The Oilers take about 56 draws per game this year.
ReplyDeleteThey win 43.7% of them and lose 56.3% of them.
The 12.6% difference is 7 draws.
The Oilers have to win 3.5 more draws per game to be @ 50%. Its only about one draw per period.
This stat is probably kept because its easy to count more than it means anything.
Ribs - you only remember the cases where the shot comes directly after the draw. The other cases fade into history. Its a one-sided test.
There just can't be any way that losing faceoffs doesn't lead to scoring chances against.
ReplyDeleteThat has never been said to my knowledge.
The problem is that old thing that Oates said, who surely paraphrased a baseball man, when he said the very best still lose 45% of the time. The margins are just razor thin here.
As I mentioned above, if the Oilers really do get in the 35-40% range, then I think it needs to be reconsidered. But again, the Oilers are bad at a lot of things. Really good faceoff teams still lose 45% of their draws and manage to avoid giving up chances and goals, so maybe the problem is what happens after the Oilers lose a draw, not the draw itself.
Deano - How about this. You're down a goal and you get a draw in the opposing teams end with 20 seconds left in the game. Winning the faceoff important, or not?
ReplyDeleteDeano: Well said.
ReplyDeleteFPB: Fair enough. Totally useless data though.
Ribs: Huh?
ReplyDelete''Winning the faceoff'' can be a scrum at the faceoff circle and someone on your team grabs it.
Fact is in those situation Horcoff is probably out and he's at 50/50.
Would you suggest Brule? He'd have better odds but seems to not be able to do the rest of the task.
RiversQ: Yes, because comparing teams with good faceoff and bad faceoffs percentage would seem ridiculous to find out the relevance of winning faceoffs.
ReplyDeletefpb - The thing is, you watch Gagner out there on a draw and there is no scrum. He doesn't fight for the puck once it's dropped. He just loses the draw clean.
ReplyDeleteRibs: But Gagner's not on the ice in the game end situations.
ReplyDeleteAnyways. I think a ''Clean Draw'' stats would be more relevant.
Those in scrums should just be counted as ''Ties''
Deano:
ReplyDelete"The Oilers have to win 3.5 more draws per game to be @ 50%. Its only about one draw per period."
Very well-made point sir.
There was a lot of interesting work at C&B looking at the Oilers' PK strategy awhile back. I'm not sure how good it was because I'm not a coach and I didn't pay that much attention ;). However, I wonder if a similar approach would yield anything interesting in the Oilers' setup after losing own zone draws on the LH and RH sides?
ReplyDeleteLT: two things to finish.
ReplyDelete1: please don't use Stauffer-isms;)
2: Woodie Fryman died today. He's the first deceased former Expo that I can remember watching.
'82 is the first season that I can remember watching games - I was seven years old at the time - and that was his last full season.
I looked at his numbers and his seasons '79-81 and at the corresponding ages of 39-41 was pretty fucking good. One thing that stuck out to me was he allowed just six homers in a combined 161 IP.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frymawo01.shtml
I'm back;) because I see today that nearly four years later Jim Matheson caught up to those old dumb bloggers by saying the Oilers blew it when they dealt away 94.
ReplyDeleteAlso, he says he wants to come back so I wonder if LA will move him this summer if they start to get the feeling that he'll walk the summer of 2012.
He would be the perfect fit here as a guy who'll do some work on the PP, could still play against real players when he left, has a great work ethic and attitude and may be expensive but only has one year left and we have a tonne of space.
Not to say 27 doesn't have things that other guys don't but what about dealing 27 for a Real D and then 94 takes his place for 2012 while a guy like young Hamilton gets his year of AHL seasonsing.
Dennis: Damn. Woody Fryman had a real twang when he talked and he had all kinds of good stories. Van Horne and Snider used to have him on during rain delays because he was so damn funny. Donkey stories and the like.
ReplyDeleteHe was a starter the first time the Expos got him, he had a good fastball and some tricks that could make the ball dip or turn.
When he came back as a reliever he threw slop but made it work.
I remember a story about him calling it quits. It involved a curve in his left arm he'd had all through his career.
One day it straightened out. And that was that.
Sorry to hear, Dennis. Thanks for letting me know. He was a good pitcher for the Expos.
94 can PK too.
ReplyDeleteWait a minute. Smyth would help the PP, the PK and at ES, but what was his FO% when he moonlighted as a C in 2003-2004? LT wants to know. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm also not sure I believe faceoffs are nearly as important as most fans seem to think.
ReplyDeleteHere's an excellent link on the topic, from Tom Benjamin way back when (aside: WOW, this was 5-6 years ago?? Seems like yesterday...):
http://canuckscorner.com/tombenjamin/2005/12/09/a-game-of-puck-position/
a lot of the faceoffs discussion comes from the comments, but the article is well worth reading also.
To Dennis' other point, I don't think Penner would have to go anywhere necessarily. The roster could definitely tolerate both especially if 4 moves to C.
ReplyDeleteLT: I like all those old rain delay stories you tell. As a kid I would have been All over that if I were old enough at the time;)
ReplyDeleteMore from Matheson today and you have to pay attention to him because we know he has juice:
///Winger Linus Omark, who might not be able to crack the top six here with Eberle returning, is getting considerable interest. Would the Oilers be interested in Nashville defenceman Jonathan Blum, their 2007 first-rounder, for Omark? Maybe. The Predators are deep on blue-liners////
Blum's listed as 6-1, 180 on DB and he's in the middle of his second full season in the A. And he's a RH shot. Not much physicality from the looks of it though.
Still, the kind of rumour that should have a Tonne of legs for a couple of reasons:
- Nsh is always looking for offensive guys
- if 23 can't play top six then how long can you really expect to keep him under contract.
- I'm not saying young Blum's obscure but if Matheson is throwing out a specific name like that then there Has to be something to it.
@Deano,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the stats breakdown. It is interesting when you look at it from an overall game perspective, it appears to have only a small impact.
However, if you look at the importance of faceoffs, how important is winning a neutral zone faceoff vs one in the offensive or defensive zone. My gut tells me that those faceoffs are more important.
If you can win the faceoff in the defensive zone, it gives you a better chance to counter attack or to ice the puck during a PK or to get a tired group of 5 a break after an icing.
If you win an offensive zone faceoff, it gives you a better chance to get a scoring chance as well as support good puck movement to start a PP. Likewise, if you can win that offensive zone draw after an icing, there's a good chance you force the play on a tired group of 5. Once again a positive chance to improve offense.
It would take a lot more analysis to and probably game to game tracking to know if the overall game stats is indicative of the key O-zone and D-zone faceoffs or if they failure of the Oilers is in one zone versus another.
Just some thoughts.
Dennis:
ReplyDeleteLooks like a great deal.
Blum's been progressing consistantly and posting great numbers in the AHL at 21.
Tough the Top 6 looks pretty stacked.
(Kostitsyn, Hornqvist, Wilson, Erat, Goc, Sullivan, and the 3rd's Dumont, O'reilly, Ward and Legwand)
Riv: No, he wouldn't but it would be nice to have 94 replace 27 on the LW for one season while we waiting for someone else to mature and in the meantime we get a real D for Penner.
ReplyDeleteAs for 4 at the pivot, I don't think it's gonna happen. I think Renney's got a huge habit of selling shit to the media and/or talking out loud and verbalizing everything that crosses his mind;)
With another top five pick in the pipe I think the smart move is to see if 4 can play centre but the burden of proof is on Renney sto stick with it.
Anyway, this Smyth back to Edm talk must have some real weight to it if Matheson's throwing it out on Sunday in his signature piece.
The funny thing about old 94 is I've never been able to root against him and I always hope the Kings do well and that's something I never thought I'd say after the late 80's and early 90's.
On the FO thing, I'd imagine it's always gonna be easier to Prevent goals than score them so to that end I'd say there should be some kind of correlation to D zone FO success to real success.
ReplyDeleteI don't give a fuck how the Oilers do on neutral zone draws but it's hard for me to believe that teams can consistently get killed on own zone draws and still make the playoffs.
But if the numbers sayd it's so then I'll believe it:)
I had such high hopes for Matts Lindgren...He was one of my favorite supposed sure things that never were.
ReplyDeleteTambi: "Well would you look at that. This Grabner kid won the fastest skater competition. I think I'll put in that waiver claim I was waffling on.
ReplyDeleteJanitor: "Dude that was like four months ago. You're too late."
Tambi: "Well gosh darn heaven forbid. I'm gonna get a bowl of soup."
I was the previous anon post
ReplyDeletechartleys
I honestly don't like the stat splitting going on.
ReplyDeleteFPB,
What are those teams special teams percentages. I think this is the difference maker. These are the faceoffs that matter most. You start every penalty in your own zone, you lose the draw you start with a quality chance and vice versa. That is the statistical correlation that matters in my brain. The difference maker. No one in their right mind could argue ST faceoffs are not a difference maker in the standings PERIOD>
chartleys
(even if you did I wouldn't listen :P)
That's what has always been missing for me. We have RELCORSI but no correlation work I know off for faceoffs. And it really should be dissected to get a clear answer.
ReplyDeletePK FO: 1.1 correction
PP FO: 0.9
ES FO: 1
or whatever the correlation comes out to.
Two guys with 50% FO:
One guy averages 2 min per game PP
One guy averages 2 min per game PK
2 guy >> than 1st IMO.
chartleys
More from Matheson today and you have to pay attention to him because we know he has juice:
ReplyDeleteMy impression was that he was less connected since Katz took over, but that impression could be erroneous.
I had such high hopes for Matts Lindgren...He was one of my favorite supposed sure things that never were.
He provided us with pretty decent goaltending for a few years; in that sense I'd say he covered the bet.
Also, this can't be good if you're a Leafs fan. I love it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, what the hell?
ReplyDelete@ Steve:
ReplyDeleteGoaltending...I'm sure this is a dose of your rapist whit, (yeah, I realize I said rapist) but I'm not sure how you're screwing with me...
@steve smith,
ReplyDeletebut what does that leafs article really prove ?
That Wilson is an idiot who can't communicate ? or that Kessel is such a head case, you can't talk to the guy ?
Either way ... it's a sad story for the leafs fan and great news for the Bruins hoping on a 2nd consecutive lotto pick.
ha ha ... love it !!!