Earlier today I posted the 97-02 numbers and the current group. It was pretty obvious that the ability to win faceoffs is one of the major problems for the Edmonton Oilers 10-11.
How bad is it? How does it compare to the golden season of 05-06? Is the current group the worst of the current century? Read on.
2002-03
- Todd Marchant (29) 58% in 1336 sorties
- Marty Reasoner (25) 53.5% in 968 sorties
- Jiri Dopita (34) 52.8% in 316 sorties
- Brian Swanson (26) 52.4% in 405 sorties
- Mike Comrie (22) 47% in 1069 sorties
- Mike York (24) 43.8% in 390 sorties
- Anson Carter (28) 43.8% in 217 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (24) 42.9% in 301 sorties
2003-04
- Adam Oates (40) 57.2% in 851 sorties
- Jarret Stoll (21) 54.1% in 1019 sorties
- Marty Reasoner (26) 52.6% in 321 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (25) 50.6% in 1378 sorties
- Ryan Smyth (27) 47.1% in 484 sorties
- Petr Nedved (32) 46.9% in 226 sorties
- Mike York (25) 45.9% in 656 sorties
2005-06
- Jarret Stoll (22) 56.8% in 1348 sorties
- Mike Peca (31) 54.9% in 1048 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (27) 52.7% in 1421 sorties
- Marty Reasoner (28) 52.5% in 524 sorties
2006-07
- Jarret Stoll (23) 55.6% in 901 sorties
- Marty Reasoner (28) 54.6% in 765 sorties
- Shawn Horcof (28) 50.6 in 1422 sorties
- Marc Pouliot (21) 48.7% in 353 sorties
- Toby Petersen (28) 48.1% in 214 sorties
- Petr Sykora (30) 48% in 462 sorties
2007-08
- Jarret Stoll (24) 55.1% in 1229 sorties
- Dustin Penner (25) 55% in 189 sorties
- Marty Reasoner (30) 52.8% in 906 sorties
- Kyle Brodziak (23) 51.5% in 297 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (29) 50.6% in 963 sorties
- Sam Gagner (18) 41.8% in 299 sorties
- Andrew Cogliano (20) 39.5% in 542 sorties
2008-09
- Shawn Horcoff (30) 53.9% in 1756 sorties
- Kyle Brodziak (24) 51.6% in 947 sorties
- Marc Pouliot (23) 48.3% in 211 sorties
- Dustin Penner (26) 47.4% in 114 sorties
- Sam Gagner (19) 42% in 690 sorties
- Andrew Cogliano (21) 37.2% in 702 sorties
2009-10
- Gilbert Brule (22) 52.6% in 274 sorties
- Dustin Penner (27) 47.7% in 421 sorties
- Ryan Potulny (25) 47.4% in 820 sorties
- Sam Gagner (20) 47.4% in 709 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (31) 46.4% in 1337 sorties
- Marc Pouliot (24) 44.3% in 235 sorties
- Andrew Cogliano (22) 43.3 % in 379 sorties
- Patrick O'Sullivan (24) 36.4% in 195 sorties
2010-11
- Gilbert Brule (23) 53.2% in 154 sorties
- Shawn Horcoff (32) 49.2% in 535 sorties
- Colin Fraser (25) 43.7% in 387 sorties
- Dustin Penner (28) 42.3% in 253 sorties
- Sam Gagner (21) 41.8% in 729 sorties
- Andrew Cogliano (23) 41.8% in 579 sorties
- Taylor Hall (18) 37.6% in 93 sorties
It's hard to argue that any of the kids is going to be an above average faceoff man. Brule has that look based on numbers, but three coaches have shown a preference to play him on the wing. Horcoff remains the best option on the team, and the list of good faceoff men traded off this roster is long and bordering on criminal considering it's a huge weakness on the current team.
I know that there was talk Brodziak wanted more dollars than the Oilers wanted to offer and they were concerned with his physical compete level given his size, but why keep flushing centers who win face offs ?
ReplyDeleteIt makes no sense and is very frustrating to watch the Oilers be tic-tac-toed in their own end off the draw.
I believe it is one of the huge failures of their PK. And earlier in the year, a challenge to their PP. Now though, the PP has no movement and a bunch of players who have no confidence in their ability to move the puck around.
Interesting blurb in the Journal today
ReplyDeleteSHORT SHIFTS
- Ryan Smyth’s five-year contract ends after next season in L.A. Confidants say he would love to finish his career where he started. The Oilers blew it when they traded him to the Islanders in 2007, too many egos got involved. Bring him back for a couple of years.
- If the Oilers don’t take defenceman Adam Larsson in the June draft, I still think their second choice is dynamic Rebels centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, even if he doesn’t have Sean Couturier’s size. The Red Deer player had six points Friday against Moose Jaw.
Read more: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Hockey+World/4231760/story.html#ixzz1DCpkm35v
A friggin travesty. And SC is another leftie.
ReplyDeleteAs is RNH.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if it doesn't have something to do with the fact that edmonton does not have a top notch face off guy on the roster to practice draws against. If the best you have is Horc, who is OK but not near what Stoll or Reasoner are. Then the kids are not practicing against top notch talent and will only get as good as who they are battling against?? If you learn and practice against the best, you will get better. We need a faceoff specialist.
ReplyDeleteWell, the Oilers have had longstanding issues with faceoffs. I'm sure it doesn't help their special teams.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, it's pretty difficult to find any area of statistical strength since everything sucks (5v5, 5v4, 4v5, Faceoffs...)
The Oilers are still a long way from being a playoff team next season. With loser points, the competition is pretty stiff in the West. Right now even Chicago and Colorado are on the outside looking in.
The Oilers have Dubnyk who's 21st in save percentage and the MVP who's 40th. That's not an elite goaltending tandem no matter how you slice it.
On defense, I agree with Dennis that we need Whitney and one other premium dman.
Up front, there's still tons of youth and whoever we draft next year--Larsson, RNH, or Couturier likely won't be having a big impact next season.
We all know the bottom six is a mess and our top six isn't a world-beater either.
As for faceoffs, it doesn't seem realistic that we can carry Gagner and Cogs as centres going forward, but that's exactly why Toonces will do it.
Is it worth it to pay big bucks to a UFA like Handzus? We would still be lacking a certain amount of offense from the centre position.
ReplyDeleteEasy to tell we are getting near the playoff drive time of year. Cagey veterans like Lowetide are starting to put in the extra work needed to get the job done: story here yesterday, at Oiler Nation this a.m. and again here this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteFine job for those of us not committed to 15 straight hours of super Bowl hype
Beauty of 05/06 face off crew was we could put out a pair of RH or LH centres when situation dictated and at 52+%. Good to see sam and Cogs over 40% ....sigh
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteBoyd Gordon-- RH PK specialist and good at face offs UFA
I would be up for a massive one-year overpay next year on Gordon or Handzus. We've got the cap room - do like we did with Peca and pay the $4 million for one year.
ReplyDeleteJohnny Eberle, that is an excellent point. I know that when I found a kid who was good at faceoffs, every other forward would take him on each practice. I did that for a few reasons; 1) Every forward should learn to take a draw, 2) It sharpened the skills of the best faceoff guy, and 3) Some of the other players built some skills in the circles.
ReplyDeleteI was also fortunate that one of my assistant coaches was incredible at faceoffs and passed that on.
Would love to have Adam Oates here tutoring the kids, but kind of makes you wonder why the hell they don't have Mike Sillinger in town every other week or so squaring off with all the centres.
ReplyDelete13 and 89 ( at least when it comes to faceoffs ): junk and garbage.
ReplyDeleteI say you give up the experiment now that either of them will be a 50% man and you go on knowing that's not one of their strong points.
This is the team that made the Stanley run. Man.
ReplyDeleteExcept we traded Reasoner before the actual run. If we put up just the playoff stats, ordered by # of draws taken:
Horcoff - 53.9
Stoll - 57.0
Peca - 50.8
Murray - 43.4
Smyth - 46.7
Still, 3 of 4 centres above 50% is quality.
BRING BACK SMYTTY
ReplyDeleteRe: Brules FO%
ReplyDeleteHe only takes faceoffs on his backhand. He shoots right so, for example, he won't take defensive zone faceoffs in the left circle because a draw win will go directly at the goal tender. A centers FO % should be radically higher when on the backhand, than on his "off" side.
Uni it would be nice to see Oates come back and at least put together a program for the coaching staff to follow.
ReplyDeleteEither that or get an actuall FO expert.
I still don't realize why they didn't keep Reasoner.
ReplyDeleteLoxy - because this management team see's jewels in the garbage they collect and no value in solid bottom 6 players. I'm sure the idiotic contracts they handed out to Moreau and Pisani burned them - but they took the wrong lesson away. That being stop massively overpaying bottom 6 players - not stop signing them all together.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe OIlers got Samsonov for Reasoner. Samsonov was so-so in the playoffs, but he helped a great deal in the push for the playoffs in 2006. The Oilers probably wouldn't have made the playoffs withOUT Samsonov.
ReplyDeleteThe OIlers got Samsonov for Reasoner.
ReplyDeleteAnd then, during the ensuing off-season, signed Reasoner as a UFA.
Which team is better, the Oilers just before they signed Pronger and Peca in the offseason, or the current Oilers?
ReplyDeleteThe 2005-2006 Oilers would've started with this lineup w/ no Pronger and Peca, no?
Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Torres-Stoll-Dvorak
Moreau-Reasoner-Pisani
Winchester-Harvey-Laraque
Smith-Brewer
Bergeron-Staios
Ulanov-Greene
Conklin
Markanenenenenen
Lowe added a 1D a solid veteran and then grabbed a goalie, another defender, and a secondary scorer nearer the rental. Boom, you're in the SCF.
We'll have a lot of cap room. Is a similar (though obviously there's no guarantee of SCF) turnaround be possible?
Kris: You forgot Mike York, though I doubt that affects your thesis.
ReplyDeleteAnyone got an US feed for the superbowl?
ReplyDeleteKris, the 05/06 team sans Pronger and Peca was much better.
ReplyDeleteThey sure make it hard enough to get a feed. I just want to see some cool commercials, dammit.
ReplyDeleteMaybe RQ,
ReplyDeleteHere's the current team
Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Eberle
MPS-Cogliano-Omark
4th line crap
Whitney-Gilbert
Smid-Foster
Peckham-Petry
MVP
Dubnyk
Smyth > Penner
Brewer >? Gilbert
Pisani > Omark
Stoll >? Gagner
Reasoner > Cogliano
Bergeron + Staios > Smid and Foster
05/06 4th line > Current crap
Hall > Torres
Eberle >? Dvorak
Whitney > Smith
MPS > Moreau
Dubnyk > Markananenenen
Some of the rest of the comps are hard to do. But some of the comps that favor the cup run team, don't favor them by much if at all, e.g. Gilbert vs. Brewer. I think the current lineup will be a better group to start next season than that 05/06 group would've been had they played without the additions. (Include Mike York in there too, if you want.)
The more I think about it, the more I think there isn't the right D out there for us to grab though. Obviously we can't get someone at Pronger's level, but I don't even know who who could get at Whitney's level.
Superbowl commercials have gotten worse and worse over the years.
ReplyDeleteSome people are forgetting the Moreau and Dvorak were pretty good players in 2006.
ReplyDeleteAnd Jason Smith was better defensively than Whitney in 2006.
Brewer made the Olympic and World Cup teams, and played really well in the World Cup.
That Oiler team before the trades was in the playoff hunt all the time, not a 30th place team.
They should have just forgotten the Black Eyed Peas and stuck to Slash.
ReplyDeleteIs this what ABBA was like?
ReplyDeleteThe BEP were actually pretty good before they became popular...i.e. before "Where is the Love".
ReplyDeleteTo become popular and rich, their music had to become worse.
I just saw Ann Wilson (Heart) blow the roof off of the local coliseum here few nights ago, at 62 years old. Good effort I guess Fergie.
ReplyDeleteIf they lose, Jones will remember that drop forever.
ReplyDeleteSavard to shut it down for the season on Monday.
ReplyDeleteThat'll give the Bruins a little extra spending money/LTIR if they choose.
Sure is shaping up to be a seller's market come trade deadline day.
NHLbyMatty Jim Matheson
ReplyDeleteRangers will be getting Souray on re-entry waivers if nobody else takes him. Not giving up anybody.
31 minutes ago
I think nothing is new. just a poorly worded tweet. Look at the tweet just after that.
ReplyDeleteHaha that on-field call is hilariously bad.
ReplyDeleteWhat!?!
ReplyDeleteThe horribly bad calls continue to rain in the Steelers favor during SB's.
kris:
ReplyDeleteBack in elementary school, around the time of the Henderson goal, I came across a logic puzzle about two Arabian kings running a series of horse races, in which the king with the weaker lineup trounces the king with the stronger lineup, by cleverly arranging for many narrow victories, and a few epic losses.
Once you line up Whitney against Smith, I guess that leaves Pronger matched against Vandermeer. Nicely done.
Pronger >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Vandermeer
There, I said it.
The SCF team was way stronger than most people recall. During the regular season it was bleeding 0.5 gpg on crap save percentage until the arrival of Roloson. That takes any decent team down more than a peg or two. Surpised they made it back to shore.
Especially in the east coast, fans remember that team as a Cinderella run. Some of our west coast opponents weren't seeing it that way. Then we cleverly showcased our pre-Roloson configuration on the grand stage, confirming the east-coast Cinderella bias for all time.
There, I said it again.
While I'm enjoying my anonymous orbs of power, Lowe/MacT accomplished something in that wonderful season that most other teams would envy. On average, that comet arrives once every fifteen seasons (SCF appearance), but no gratitude here. What's more, it was a SCF against a beatable team.
When sprinters cross the finish line, they lean across the tape. Isn't that how it works? The one epic season when the chips are down defines you forever? Despite subsequent management failures, there sometimes isn't enough appreciation here for Cool Hand Lowe's near miss prior to his manic self-destruction and subsequent failure to communicate.
By comparison, it's been 40 years since the Leafs last got a *glimpse* of Lucille.
Do the pens have anything worth looking at?
ReplyDeleteThe Black Eyed Peas look like they had no interest whatsoever in playing a super bowl. Fergie's voice is awful in real life.
Would they trade Malkin?
ReplyDeleteYeah like Malkin would be a happy camper? A disgruntled superstar is not the way to build a happy winning cohesive culture.
ReplyDeleteHall is our superstar. They have to be homegrown until one is a contneder with an established team culture.
This is NOT rotisserie league hockey.
Maudite: Dustin Jeffrey.
ReplyDeleteThat is all they got left.
It might be an entirely unrealistic trade, but I'm pretty sure happy camperism isn't the reason. This is not Stuart smiley hockey?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous: Kris's argument is about comparing the team immediately before the Pronger and Peca acquisitions (you'll note the presence of Eric Brewer in his lineup). I don't think anybody is going to argue that the current last-in-every-category Oiler team is comparable to the one that played in game seven of the Stanley Cup finals.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I want anything to do with 8.7 million per for Malkin...
ReplyDeleteI think the going prices are down atm.
Plus giving to get him would be steeper than the overall gain.
Maudite: Joe Thornton was traded for a garbage can.
ReplyDeleteIf the deal's there. Do it.
Kris: Moreau and Dvorak from 06 were much better players than the two rookies you have there. In fact it's not even close. Old man Dvorak wouldn't get steam rolled by the Umberger line right now.
ReplyDeleteThe 05/06 team was highly underrated. If they had a full year of league average goaltending they would have had home ice in the first round. Roloson made them a formidable opponent. Heck, even the 03/04 club would have made the playoffs if it wasn't for Lowe's mess with Comrie.
Yeah...and how many Stanley Cups does San Jose have to show with their bunch of losers.
ReplyDeleteGodot: I don't think I even have to comment the sillyness of that comment but whatever.
ReplyDeleteYes it's definitly a terrible thing for those Sharks to make the playoffs every year. Damn them.
Oh and Malkin won a cup.
Name a Stanley Cup winner whose best player was basically not homegrown.
ReplyDeleteIt is extremely rare. The dominant model is a homegrown core supplemented by one or two imported players at the end.
The transplanted mid-career superstar doesn't work...has never worked.
It is extremely rare. The dominant model is a homegrown core supplemented by one or two imported players at the end.
ReplyDeleteYou're quite right about that. On the other hand, a superstar is a superstar, and it's kind of silly to suggest that one acquired by another means is less useful than a homegrown one. That's somewhat analogous to saying that because most star hockey players buy their skates directly from the manufacturer, one shouldn't buy exactly the same skates at a sporting goods store.*
I'm against trading for Malkin, incidentally.
*I don't have the foggiest idea where hockey players get their skates.
Name a Stanley Cup winner whose best player was basically not homegrown.
ReplyDeleteAnaheim and Pronger.
This year it will be Philly and Pronger.
Book it!
Because superstars don't often get traded.
ReplyDeleteBecause superstars don't often get traded.
ReplyDeleteDing ding ding!
Anaheim was a black swan...the exception that proves the rule.
ReplyDeleteScott Niedermeyer wanted to play with his brother, and then Burke was the only GM shrewd enough to make a play for the force trade of Pronger. How many times are two Hall of Fame defensemen are going to be gifted to you.
But even there, Bryan Murray and Peter McNab had build an extremely solid foundation of homegrown young players there.
Godot:
ReplyDelete2002 Wings: Shanahan
1996 Avalanche: Roy
1994 Rangers: Messier
1989 Flames: Mullen
FPB...I guess you never heard of Steve Yzerman and Nick Lidstrom. I guess you never heard of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. I guess you never heard of Brian Leitch and Mike Richter. I guess you never heard of Joe Nieuwendyk, Gary Roberts, Al McInnis, Mike Vernon, and Hakan Loob.
ReplyDeleteFPB: Your post actually proves the point that you import players at the end, when you are a contender, not at the beginning, when you are in 30th place.
ReplyDeleteGodot: Who said those guys were alone?
ReplyDeleteDo you really think you can have only one guy and you can win it?
Yeah I guess the big plan is just let Malkin alone do the stuff.
Not like theyre would be Hall or Eberle there.
I guess you never heard of Brian LEETCH either.
Godot
ReplyDeleteHow about Guy Lafleur and Les Canadiens?
Godot: If you've read something I talked about getting Malkin on the cheap side.
ReplyDeleteNot offering Marincin and two 1sts for him.
If they get a Joe Thornton type of deal i don't see how this affects the team badly.
Guy LaFleur, Bob Gainey, Doug Jarvis, Serge Savard, Guy Lapoint, Bill Nyrop, Ken Dryden, Larry Robinson, Mario Tremblay, Rejean Houle, Doug Risebrough, Yvon Lambert, Steve Shutt, Jacques Lemaire....essentially the entire effing team was homegrown.
ReplyDeleteGodot: Yes because every other player on the Oilers team would suddendly not become homegrown because we traded for Malkin. Clap clap clap.
ReplyDeleteOilers now 3 points out of 29th. NJ following George and Weezy in the standings.
ReplyDeleteI was the world's biggest Dvorak fan. Not a flashy guy, but got the puck going the right way and could play tough opp. Beauty player. But I think Eberle is already better. He's playing tough opposition and breaking even and PK'ing.
ReplyDeleteMoreau v. MPS is a tough call IMO. For one thing, Moreau may have benefitted from his teammates. People keep saying his game went south, but I think he might have been a lesser player than we thought. And MPS has just found his game. But if you tell me I have to win 7 games at the start of next season, I pick the MPS who will start 2011-2012, not the Moreau who started 2005-2006.
But I take your points.
I also think Hall >>>>>>>>>>>>> Torres, which is a big deal.
My point is that if the Oilers buy some guys who can play the toughest minutes, then the rookies and everyone else drops down the depth chart, where they will look much, much, much better. A few players can have a massive impact in that way.
But I guess that only adresses ES, when the PK and the PP are bigger problems.
Why are we talking about getting Malkin? Does it anyway, anyhow make any sense for either team?
ReplyDeleteI do believe there is a lot of pressure on Shero to do something, but giving up Malkin for Penner (or Hemsky) makes no sense.
Matt N at CnB has a better take on the possibilities than is being brought up here.
BarqU
ReplyDeleteI think the deal inferred is Malkin + prospects for Penner and Hemsky.
At least thats how I see it with the cap space Malkin on IR frees up.
Pronger, Niedermayer, Selanne, Bourque, Roy, St. Louis, Gonchar, Guerin, Sharp, Campbell, Coffey, Messier, Nieuwendyk, the list goes on and on...
ReplyDeleteI cannot believe that the Oiler 2006 run failed because in the end we our best players weren't homegrown. There is just no causation there.
I cannot believe that the Oiler 2006 run failed because in the end we our best players weren't homegrown. There is just no causation there.
ReplyDeleteIt could also have been that they bought their skates at the wrong place.
Sorry, didnt realize the above non-homegrown star list had already been well handled.
ReplyDeleteAnd Wayne frigging Gretzky too by the way.
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeleteMy television tells me that Crosby buys his sticks at Sport Chek.
I cannot believe that the Oiler 2006 run failed because in the end we our best players weren't homegrown. There is just no causation there.
ReplyDeleteIt could also have been that they bought their skates at the wrong place.
I'm pretty sure that the 2006 SCF loss resulted from 5 main factors:
1) Not enough clutch players
2) Markkanen making too many regular saves and not enough BIG SAVES
3) MacT's refusal to call up Schremp for Game 7
4) Hemsky being too much of a square peg
5) Horcoff's $11.8 million cap hit
Also, Penner was lazy, and it rubbed off on us during the conference finals.
ReplyDeleteUlanov-Greene
ReplyDeleteGreene was in college until near the end of the season, no?