Winter 2009: NR
Summer 2010: #19
Winter 2010: #19
Jeremie Blain has been injured for much of this season. That would normally mean he'd be at the end of this list, but in the case of Blain there are a couple of reasons to make an exception.
Why? Blain hurt his foot late September when blocking a shot and it took him forever (mid-December) to return. Having said that, foot injuries are somewhat commonplace for defensemen and are not among the items we generally associate with impact injuries (concussions, knees, ankles, hands). Over a long career, foot injuries can slow a player and affect mobility, but this injury doesn't appear to be one that will impact his career. The X-rays came back fine (and although it took quite a long time to recover) he's good to go. We'll put it on his resume, but the blue have to deal with this kind of thing from time to time.
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I have no pre-draft scouting reports so will list the words that were written right after the draft from the Oilers:
- Steve Tambellini: "He's 6.03, they think he'll play around 220. He's a right hand shot, and he plays with the edge, he's a hard guy to play against and he scored 40 points last year. Not a lot of people talked about him, but he (Oiler scout Bill Dandy) was passionate about. We waited a little one extra pick, but we got him. I'm happy about this pick."
- Stu MacGregor: "Good size, very strong, competes hard and plays with an edge. A guy we really liked, Billy Dandy really pushed him hard. When I saw him play, the kid played on a terrible team but played hard every shift. We feel we gto some more size there and we got some grit."
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Blain's numbers for last season and this:
- 09-10: 64gp, 4-34-38 (.594) -22
- 10-11: 8gp, 0-6-6 (.750) +3 (+12)
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I think there's one other thing we can agree on with regard to this player: he was drafted for need. Never a good idea, it's especially galling to do it early in the draft (ala Cameron Abney). I don't think it's a huge crime to have taken this player at 91 and he does appear to be covering the bet early.
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Here's what the Oilers site said about Blain on draft day:
- At the urging of Oilers QMJHL Scout Billy Dandy, Blain went to the Oilers after turning heads on an Acadie-Bathurst team that finished 31-37 last season, in spite of his contributions. The team’s scoring leader among defencemen (34 points in 68 games), his bread-and-butter style is an edgy, physical brand of play with an aggressive style every shift. A Montreal native and bilingual, Blain compared his playing style to his boyhood idol, Andrei Markov.
I'll tell you the names of the players I considered for this slot. Since this is in fact the 20th prospect listed, I'll be adding one (tomorrow) for number 20 overall. Under consideration:
- Shawn Belle: a nice blend of size and speed.
- Ryan O'Marra: Good on faceoffs, he's a perfect fit for the current team.
- Johan Motin: The forgotten AHL defender may be a little shy.
- Tyler Bunz: Having a nice season. 5th in WHL SP.
- Milan Kytnar: Some evidence he's a defensive savant.
Shouldn't Blain be #20, since McDonald was #19?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, some asshole lawyer wannabe raised questions about McDonald's eligibility, so two #19s was the compromise.
ReplyDeleteLT, the really irksome thing about Abney wasn't that he was a draft for need, but that he was a draft for something nobody needs.
Haha, thanks, didn't get that deep in the comments. Lawyers can be irksome... until you need one.
ReplyDeleteFunny thing about lawyers and lawyer wannabes... they're always bringing up their careers but are careful to couch them in self-deprecating terms. Not sure what that means.
ReplyDelete;op
SpOILer: on the one hand, our careers are the only thing that validate our existence. On the other, we're uncomfortably aware that they don't validate it very well.
ReplyDeletespoiler: It's likely because of individuals like this charming fellow:
ReplyDeleteNext time I saw my lawyer I mentioned this. The little rat gave me a look that told me the jig was up.
I can understand why they tend to hate themselves. Bloodsucking scumbags, for the most part.
It's easier to be self-depricating than get worked up about it.
Schizo: the first thing we do, let's kill all the playwrights.
ReplyDeleteSteve: The first thing we do is educate people as to the context of their favourite "anti-lawyer" line.
ReplyDeleteSorry, LT, we're doing it to you again. We won't hijack the third Prospect #19 thread, I promise.
ReplyDeleteThe first tow names that came to mind (outside of your list, LT) were Toni Rajala and Phil Cornet. Unfortunately, Rajala's getting blown out of the water over in Finland by Jesse Niinimaki, and Cornet's spent the last season and a half stagnating offensively.
ReplyDeleteSo, I'll argue for Bunz. Junior save percentage numbers seem to have pretty minimal predictive value, but he's playing very well this season and has some decent size. O'Marra's probably not far behind him and certainly fits need but I can't get past hte fact that he's played a hair under 200 AHL games and has 16 goals. Belle's probably better than a lot of players on this list, but I don't think he's going to get a fair look with people like Plante and Petry in the system, and I reall don't get the feel that he's in the long-term plans.
#20 - Tyler Bunz. Good goalies turn up in the weirdest spots.
Steve: The first thing we do is educate people as to the context of their favourite "anti-lawyer" line.
ReplyDeleteActually, I don't buy the argument that it's actually pro-lawyer: here's a pretty good essay refuting it.
Of course, that Shakespeare hated lawyers is not actually a criticism of lawyers, unless you're big on appeal to authority (and really irrelevant authority, to boot). But I do think he hated lawyers.
And now, I promise, I will not say anything else non-hockey-related in this thread.
It's gotta be Bunz, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteHe posted a ridiculous record since Mid November, has something like a .950 save percentage in that span.
Made the summer camp for Hockey Canada, which probably gives him in-roads to play at the 2012 tourney.
Cornet looked good at the OKC game I saw. He only gets 4th line minutes though and his linemates aren't world beaters. Wonder if he's getting more of a chance now that 23 is up with the oilers.
ReplyDeleteThe injury to Blain blocking a shot makes me think of talk the last few days of putting #4 out on the PK. Well if they do, make sure they get some Pentagon design engineer for his skates, lower leg padding etc.
ReplyDeleteWell if Mcdonald's 25 and scoring at the same pace O'Marra was. And now O'Marra's doing fine in the NHL. Well you get the drift.
ReplyDeleteLT: Don't you think O'Marra fits the description you gave of what Mcdonald would give to the team?
On Paajarvi's goal he went straight to the net creating space for Omark. I think it's been a while since he had someone do that.
The problem with O'Marra is that while he may look like the perfect fit its hard to say if he can deliver what he needs to deliver.
ReplyDeleteFaceoff wins, good work on the PK etc.
Matheson's article on Jacques makes me think they're tired of waiting for the guy. He's closer to thirty than twenty for Christsakes.
O'Marra has to prove he belongs at least in that fourth line role. If he does then he will stick and JFJ will get the axe I think. And then Fraser will be gone as well. O'Marra can't be any worse than that guy.
My vote goes to Bunz! After a rocky start, he has been extremely consistent and has been very good
ReplyDeleteAlso I am not sure that Blain at 19 is a stretch now , nor was he one at #91.
Big: check
Gritty: check
offensive: check
Unless his d zone coverage is complete shit, i dont understand why he lasted till the 4th round and was ranked even lower. 4th round + is a safe zone fr taking flyers on prospects who have showed promise and I think Blain fits that bill well
Call me crazy, but by virtue of the fact that he's actually up on the big club it would seem O'Marra shot sit in the 20 spot. He does have the draft pedigree and fits all kinds of needs. It could well be that he is one of those late bloomer finds that the Oil are often encouraged to uncover from some other team's system.
ReplyDeleteIf he can tread water until Horc gets back, I'd like to see whether he can take Fraser's spot and improve that position. Perhaps he can hold the fort until Lander is fully developed.
I'm going to propose that every prospect from here on out be #19.
ReplyDeleteIt's like Prendergast's old rankings only overly realistic.
@melman
ReplyDeleteexcept that Omarra is getting killed at least on the scoring chances front
And now O'Marra's doing fine in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteDoing fine?
I've seen him as mostly useless so far, but not worth complaining about yet because it's just three games. I know he has two assists, but he's generated just one shot on goal and was not on the ice for any scoring chances in two of three games.
@SumOil
ReplyDeleteFair enough, but let's give him a couple weeks (without looking over his shoulder) to see if he can make the jump. Let's remember it took #4 a while to find his game and he's got truckloads more talent on his side.
Nice to finally see Blain on the list. The Oilers prospect ranks are not exactly replete in 6'2" 220 lb Dmen with toughness and a bit of scoring knowledge.
ReplyDeleteIf he has good hockey sense (which seems to be the knock on Belle), he might be comparable to a young Steve Staois. Maybe a little K. Lowe in him?
LT, I don't know why you don't have him higher given your unusually high level of affection for prospects from the Q (see MAP and Trukhno) :-)
LT, the really irksome thing about Abney wasn't that he was a draft for need, but that he was a draft for something nobody needs.
I don't think they saw Abney as just a scrapper but as someone who could get in on the forecheck and play too. More in the JFJ mold. There definitely is a need for these types of guys (Chris Neal, or Dave Lumley or Kevin McClelland) but unfortunately JFJ is too hurt or too stupid to play the role. Abney isn't proving much better so far - although he can skate from what I have seen.
As for for #20, how about Drew Czerwonka? or Bigos or Hesketh?
@melman
ReplyDeleteit is unfair to compare 4 and o marra.
1st of all 4 was 18 when he started off. Plus he was getting shots and scoring chances albeit not at a rate as he is now. It just took him a while to convert his chances or understand how to capitalize on his chances.
Omarra has been completely underwhelming. I am ready to give hime time to adjust to the Nhl, but i dont think he is our top 20 prospect anymore.
I'd go for Kytnar at 20. (Or 21? "Thanks" "Steve.")
ReplyDeleteHe's younger and so there's a chance that he'll develop into a decent 4th liner.
But O'marra does still have a fading window of opportunity to become a serviceable NHL 4th liner. He's not that far from it now. (Not there yet, I think.)
Tough call. Maybe you should have a list of 22.
Go Kytnar!
ReplyDeleteYou're way better than Trukhno!....Umm...I hope.
Robby Dee seems to have been forgotten. He had a monster month of October. Big body who's hovering around 60% faceoffs.
ReplyDeleteI don't think they saw Abney as just a scrapper but as someone who could get in on the forecheck and play too.
ReplyDeleteWell, if that's what they saw, then I shift my objection from poor draft strategy to poor evaluation skills.
I could be talking out of my ass, because I'm actually astonishingly ignorant of everything hockey-related (hence the thread highjacking to areas that I'm more comfortable discussing), but was there anything in Abney's record to indicate he could play hockey at the AHL level, let alone the NHL level?
Can't remember if Reddox has been placed yet or if he even counts as a prospect under LT's rules, but IMHO he's the closest of the bubble boys to the NHL.
ReplyDeleteRiversQ: So he wasn't on the ice for any scoring chances but plugged up 2 assists, and was behind Omark on his 1st goal.
ReplyDeleteHuh.
Sum: Agreed he isn't doing marvellous, but at least he's doing some things right. And it's his first NHL games. Gotta let him some time to adapt. Fraser's older and still sucks donkey. At least O'Marra has youth and inexperience to blame.
Clearly Drew Czerwonka should be on this list. That guy is a sublime talent.
ReplyDeleteSteve...
ReplyDeleteThe book on Abney was that he had a lot of raw assets. I don't think he had been playing hockey for very long when he was drafted, yet was a good skater for his size and a willing ruffian. Total flyer pick and likely went too high for such a low probability, coupled with the usual rumour another team was going to take him (the horror).
@ spoiler
ReplyDeleteGuys like abbey are dime a dozen on the FA. There absolutely no need to draft them and go through the developmental pains.
Furthermore abney did not even have the offense that jfj or stotini had. It was a waste pick which should have been used to draft someone with a much higher potential
Re last night's game: I missed it due to a major piss up out on the town, but it's starting to worry me what they're going to do with all that new talent. Ten rookie points in a single game!?
ReplyDeleteKyle Bigos could possibly be a twenty. Its the spot for long shots, and huge, aggressive defencemen always have a chance even if the math doesn't like them.
ReplyDeleteAs far as O'Marra goes, I'd have to agree with some others that he doesn't look like he's got a future in the NHL. He's slow as molasses and doesn't look to me like any kind of a defensive stalwart.
Brodziak only makes a couple of hundred thousand more then Fraser and O'Marra and has to be twice the player. WTF?
The whole taking a player because of a rumour that another team likes them is so 'Oilers'. Have they ever thought that another team name-drops someone off board to give them the impression that they're interested, but only actually wanted them to leave the rated talent alone?
ReplyDeleteThe whole situation with Hesketh reaked of that. "They were gonna take him, honest!". Well, so what? He was a reach then, and he's a reach now.
At least 2010 is looking like one of the few flawless drafts I can remember. Not everyone will make it, but they were all reasonable selections and risks in the appropriate rounds. Just outstanding in its rationality.
Pretty sure Reddox is ineligible, or I would have pushed for him.
ReplyDeleteRobby Dee's an interesting prospect. He could be a late bloomer, or he could be Bryan Lerg. But he does deserve to be in the conversation.
@JW:
ReplyDeleteYou say that Junior save percentage has minimal predictive value and I'll defer to your wisdom there as I've never really looked into it too deeply. My question then is, what is a good predictor for draft age goaltenders? GAA is obviously far too reliant on quality of team. Does it really come down to the gut feelings of scouts? That seems awfully unreliable.
If that's the case, I'm glad the Oilers don't draft goaltenders early but i'm also really curious as to how teams like Montreal come up with solid goaltending prospects more often than some others. Maybe the Oilers should throw a huge contract offer to whatever goaltending scouts have drafted succesfully in the past.
Tuco: I think it just comes down to drafting goalies who have a high save %. That's the only way. Pretty rare there's been a guy under ,900 who panned out.
ReplyDeleteSince Hemsky has officially become the poor man's Gaborik in just about every way, my sad conclusion is that it's probably better to trade him than sign him long-term and cross our fingers every year.
ReplyDeleteWhether you agree with that assessment or not, what do people think is the best we could hope for in terms of a D-man return for him at the deadline or in the summer if he eventually comes back strong this year?
FPV: That's what I always assumed would be the best way but when JW says SV PCT is a poor predictor I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt.
ReplyDeleteGoalies are such a wild card. I still don't understand how Khabibulin is a better choice than Garon or even Roloson, but then 2 years ago I would've traded Penner for Steve Mason 10 times out of 10.
Goalies are a crapshoot. That's why you shouldn't waste big resources on them: don't draft them high, don't give up assets to trade for them, and don't sign them to big contracts.
ReplyDeleteThere are rare exceptions (trading for Roloson in 2006 was the right call. Or for anyone who wasn't Morconkannen, really.), but GMs far more commonly err by paying big for them than by not.
Tuco: Yeah I think it'S not that important pass a certain point. (Idk what exact range). But I think you can't hope a ,888 goalie to do miracles. But like ,910 to say ,920 the difference could be luck.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if you get my drift. But I think all goalies past a certain point can do it, or break. But that's very tough for goalies under that mark. (Say ,900)
Drafting junior goalies strictly on save percentage is foolish. There are cities that are notorious for shot stat padding their goalies.
ReplyDeleteGoalies are a crapshoot and you've really got to scout them and see what their makeup and technique is about.
Even then they can still bust.
Smarmy: Well yeah that's why you don't necessarely draft the guy who's on top of that. But it's pretty rare that a guy with a low save % will go out. So you have to watch games and take some flyers.
ReplyDeleteBut it'l still stay a crapshoot. Just less of a crapshoot.
Well yeah a guy with an .888 save percentage is likely to suck no matter what unless he's on a five win team.
ReplyDeleteThere have been a few whl goalies with Sv % north of .920 that made worse picks then Abney.
Lowetide: This is a great series you have put together. Maybe it is too much to ask, but can you give some context over the next while? How good are the prospects vs other teams. Right now, this is done in a vacuum. For instance vs the Hawks a few years ago, or Washington, or Penguins, or going back to when the Nordiques sucked then stocked up, or even Ottawa, etc, how does our potential stack up? Philly right now, to pick a team that is doing pretty well, has what Carter, Richards, Van Riemsdyk, Giroux, a few D, and this is just off the top of my head, all recent draft picks. Then they made some great trades, and of course have Pronger. So is the current Oil prospect crop better than most teams, amongst the best ever, or what? Just a little context would be helpful for the analytical, not fanatical amongst us.
ReplyDeleteKingervision: I'm not sure where we could start and how we'd agree on a timeline. It's a great idea, though. We'd require someone from the CHI, PIT organizations with a knowledge of their prospects over the years.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy: I tend to believe that's one area where the QJMHL is more reliable.
ReplyDeleteIf the kid gets to post a ,900+ save percentage, he's gotta pretty good, considering the disparity between D's and O's.
But then again it's all based on seein' good.