Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Draft Week 2010 Post #9: Oilers Draft Trends (This Wheel's On Fire)
















The Edmonton Oilers have altered their definition of "best player available" several times over the last decade. I think that is probably a terrible idea, because you're chasing this year's model.

The scouting staff (led in this decade by Kevin Prendergast and Stu MacGregor) have delivered precious diamonds in a trickle and something less than gems by the truckload. That's not a put down, drafting prospects into the show successfully requires walking to the podium early in each season's draft. The Oilers 2000-06 drafted in the teens or lower (Mikhnov #17; Hemsky #13; Niinimaki #15; Pouliot #22; Dubnyk #14; Schremp #25) and in the 10 seasons of the oughts selected in the top 10 twice (Gagner and MPS).

2010 summer has a chance to be something very special for the Edmonton Oilers and their fans, something to remember. Something like the sounds coming out of Ottmar Gramms house 42 years ago. Something that will impact this town and its team for years to come.

And the authors will be Stu (Magnificent Bastard) Macgregor, Steve (Luca Brasi) Tambellini and Tom (Hasten Down the Wind) Renney. But they better stick it good. Because the memory of Pat Quinn and Kevin Prendergast (Desperadoes Under the Eaves) lingers, and the legendary mistakes (led by Jason "Carmelita" Bonsignore) live on in this town like an "Eat-at-Joe's" neon sign.

For the record, Oilers draft trends have gone like this:

  • In his first three seasons (2001-2003), Prendergast drafted only one truly small player (Dwight Helminen, and they traded him). They loved the Coke Machines and took them at least one round earlier than the world expected them to. The biggest kids were Zach Stortini, David Rohlfs and the gigantic Jean-Francois Jacques, but they weren't the best kids so the club never did get a top 6 forward with size from the 00's drafts. Quebec province blessed them with Hemsky and they spent lavishly in that province for some time before getting their fill.
  • From 2004-07, the Oilers began to overlook size (Cogliano) and speed (Schremp) at the top of the draft in order to bring more skill into the organization. In fact, both Schremp and Cogliano are under 6 feet tall, the first players taken by Edmonton in the first round under 6 feet since Tyler Wright in 1991. From 2004-07, the Oilers selected all kinds of players who may have been overlooked in previous drafts (Gagner, Cogliano, Trukhno, Chorney) and may be ignored in future ones. Riley ("Love Story") Nash and his love of Cor("Ali MacGraw")nell greatly displeased the Oilers. Gagner was the highest pick in forever, and appears to be worthy of the selection.
  • Since MBS has arrived (2008) we've seen some unique things and a return to the bigger man credo. Magnum PS is the highest Euro selection in team history, Finland made a welcome comeback and Coke Machines are back in the third round. They seem to be less in love with the college men, still drafting them but always wary of the "MacGraw" factor; under MBS college kids get drafted later. The love of skill remains and the Oilers appear to be back in the "lets add some bullets" mode that dominated their 2001-04 drafts. In fact, in those seasons (4 in total) the club selected 47 players and Robin Kovar (an average of 12 per season). Since then, the club has averaged 6 per season (31 picks in 5 years). The Oilers have a ton of picks again this season.

44 comments:

  1. I know drafting MPS and Lander (Timra) is hardly a trend but looking at Blue Bullets rankings from last post I do wonder if they snag Weal. Surely they dont need another small forward but they must have seen the kid play more than most.

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  2. Harsh! Owning a go-kart track is considerably better than being on welfare and methadone.

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  3. Assuming they don't add any draft picks I predict:

    CHL first 3 picks
    A USHS behemoth Dman
    At least one Fin (you can never have too many Fins)
    Later CHL over looked small man

    Also,

    McKenzie is reporting that the CHI-ATL trade is on hold because it would put ATL at 51 contracts.

    Sharp GM.

    Wonder what the Oilosphere would say if Tambellini did that?

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  4. So today I was thinking back to the trade that sent Pronger packing off to the land of Disney, smog and hockey tradition. I remember we got Smid, Lupol, a 1st round pick and another conditional 1st round pick should Anaheim win the cup (which they did. grrrr), and a lower pick maybe(?). So tracing the lineage of that trade: Smid is still here, Lupol turned into Pitkanen who turned into Cole who turned into O'Sullivan (all busts in Edmonton). But I can't remember who the draft picks turned into. Can anyone save me some research and remind me who we took with those picks. Did they make up for the Lupol/Cole/Pitkanen/O'Sullivan failures?

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  5. And the other 1st was dealt to move up and draft Nash iirc.

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  6. The other was used to trade up for Riley Nash, I believe.

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  7. Less than 10 minutes for an answer. You guys are impressive.

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  8. ATL to hire the Buffalo Soldier to coach:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=325516

    Wonderful player and a good asst coach. His teams have done well forever.

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  9. Here's the Final List:
    1 - Tyler Seguin, C - R 6.01 - 186
    31 - Brad Ross, RW 6’1, 175 lbs
    48 - Devante Smith-Pelly, LW 5’11- 211
    61 - Joey Leach, D-L 6-3.0/187
    91 - Curtis Hamilton, LW 6’2, 211
    121 - Cameron Wind, D-L 6.01 - 194
    151 - Konrad Abeltshauser, D 6-3, 195
    162 - Marcel Noebels, F 6'2" 192
    166 - Nathan Lieuwen, G 6-5/192
    188- Austin Levi, D-L 6’3” - 192

    Now you can spend the week-end with your families.
    You're welcome.

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  10. LT, you rock. Consistently the best content on the planet.

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  11. Three updates in one day oh Lowetide you are getting so generous!

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  12. Aw, shucks. :-)

    Actually, there's a ton to talk about right now. Souray's back in EDM to get clearance from the Mayo clinic and Craig Ramsay is hockey's Reggie Smith (success follows him everywhere).

    Plus the Canucks won the Stanley tonight, riots in the streets no doubt.

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  13. I always think that the previous draft tendencies need to be taken with a grain of salt.

    If a team plans to take the best player available, he may be small, he may be European, he may be a coke machine.

    It all depends on who is left when your pick comes up.

    2 of our last 3 picks will be from the OHL. This is only because Gagner and Hall/Seguin were the top players available when we picked.

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  14. LT

    My son's friend who went to VFS is in Australia. Contact info will take a wee bit longer than I expected.

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  15. Byfuglien traded? LoL so much for being the obscure hero.

    I like Eager too, tough guy can play. But yeah i guess it's pretty fair. A 1st, 2nd, middle prospects and a plumber. For Byfuglien, Eager and Sopel.

    The trashers scouting team would probably have screwed those picks anyway.

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  16. "Is that your personal list or did you hack into McGregor's email account?"

    No I didn't
    I can barely hack my way into a bag of frozen perogies.

    A couple of years ago I had Kytnar on my list as a late round selection.
    But last year I totally struck out.

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  17. Mr Debakey: Well someone did hack Sarah Palin' account.

    Just saying.

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  18. fpv: I think you're the first guy to ever say that Eager can play. ;)

    Rumours around the interwebs that Souray will be traded to the NYR, the only team crazy enough to think he has value. Could see this happening tomorrow or Friday at the commencement of the draft.

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  19. Jon K: Well I mean there's limits to what he can do in his role.

    But his tools aren't that bad. He got some good speed and decent shot. He probably could be a better hockey player if he wasn't a goon. (Kinda like ala Probert minus the alcoholism)

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  20. Debakey: Good lookin' on that Smith-Pelly pick. That kid has me sold and any team that drafts him (please let it be the Oil) is gonna get a bull on the puck with drive for days.

    His clip reel makes me grin every time.

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  21. Since I'm bored.... ;-)

    Mikhnov got 7 goals in 17 playoff games this playoffs; 8 goals in 18 playoff games the year prior - better than his team mate Yashin...

    He was only +12 this season; + 25 the year prior... All the above while playing less than 14 minutes per game...

    Since we're cleaning out the closet on the rebuild, how could it hurt to give Mikhnov a two year ($1.5 million per season) contract while the recent draft picks mature?

    With MacT gone, I suspect we would get our moneys worth...

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  22. LT -- if you have a child who's looking to get into VFS, I have a best friend who works there, and is a former student herself. She would be the gal to talk to. I read your blog everyday -- I would be glad to help out any way I can. Email me at parkatti@gmail.com ...

    Cheers,
    Go Hall

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  23. Tencer is tweeting the Oilers have done "something"...a "depth move".

    That's all I got.

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  24. dantencer

    Oilers deal a 6th round pick to Chicago for RFA centerman Colin Fraser. Thanks to Stauffer for confirming Oilers end of the deal.

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  25. thanks Terry...I copied,but did not need to paste.

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  26. No problem I feel kind of bad because I am aware of the amount of effort many of you put into this blog...not sure what I would do without it. I must say Frazer is a good addition.

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  27. No worries Terry

    The guy has played 150+ games in the last couple years.

    6'1" 188 lbs.

    We'll have to convince him to play with a right handed stick though.

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  28. Comedically, Fraser's wikipedia page has been updated already to say he's an Oiler. Between Twitter and Wikipedia, who needs MSM?

    Is Fraser a depth centerman that could take some tough minutes? I don't know enough about him, but is he gone because Reasoner is a Hawk?

    Ahh Marty, how I miss you (sadly) ...

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  29. give me 5 mins and I can make anything true on Wiki

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  30. I'd have rather the Oilers acquired Ladd.

    The Oilers already have enough 4th line forwards.

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  31. The Oilers already have enough 4th line forwards.

    Until we get Patrick Thoresen - no we do not...

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  32. Not a franchise changer but you have to think it's a safe bet Fraser is better than whoever that 6th round pick will become.

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  33. In the AHL he had a fair amount of penalty minutes. Maybe is here to bring some 4th line grit when needed.

    Worst case scenario is that he goes to OKC, where he would be incredibly useful. He has enough pedigree that he has a reasonable chance to develop into a decent 4th liner.

    Not a bad addition to the depth of the organization.

    Let's pray Tambellini can make some good moves over the next few days.

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  34. "Magnum PS." I like it. Did you come up with that, LT?

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  35. Not a fan of this deal - I once got dumped for a guy named Colin Fraser.

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  36. Gospel of Jon: No. I can't remember who did, but its usually slipper or showerhead.

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  37. My condolences Steve.

    First the Smith thing, now the Frazer thing.

    Your life is a Greek Tragedy. ;-)

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  38. Downright Fierce - Thanks for the clip. Reminds me of Tootoo - in a good way.

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  39. Magnum PS? hahaha... I hope that kid is able to grow a manly stache, that's a great nickname.

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