Things have changed and Stu MacGregor is developing some tendencies of his own. Although we've skirted around the draft a little so far, this post represents the official start of the Lowetide "entry draft 2010" countdown. We're going to stare at this sucker until it blinks.
From 2001-08, the Prendergast era drafted like this:
- WHL-11
- Sweden-10
- OHL, QMJHL-8
- USHS-5
- Finland, NCAA-4
- Czech-3
- USHL, AJHL, Russia, OPJHL-2
- EJHL, NAHL, US U18, BCJHL, Slovakia-1
However, they rarely spent Swedish picks early on. If we count only the Oilers top 50 picks during the KP era, we once again see the CHL (62.5%) and the NCAA axis (31%) with only Jesse Niinimaki (Finland) a top 50 pick from Europe. KP selected OPJHL (Cogliano), USHL (Greene, Petry), USHS (Chorney), BCJHL (Nash) from less than marquee North American leagues but most picks belonged to the CHL (Hemsky to Gagner) and most of the production also came from the Canadian Leagues.
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We have two seasons (2008 and 2009) from Cooking with Stu, let's run those numbers like we did right at the top of this post.
- WHL, Sweden-3
- QMJHL, Finland-2
- USHS, BCJHL-1
Next up: what kind of production did KP get for all those CHL top 50 picks, and will Stu MacGregor follow suit? Also, what has the organization told us about this year's draft (after #1 overall)?
Well, I'm pretty sure we can safely say "OHL - 1".
ReplyDeleteOne reason I like McGregor's last two drafts: Euros in the later rounds, fewer NCAA players.
I think that's why those two drafts track so well right now.
I think the strength for Stu is that he's been money with the Euro picks (at least so for in their development).
ReplyDeleteAnd not just MPS and Lander; Hartikainen is a helluva prospect and Rajala has some nice arrows too.
I'm a little puzzled by how much credit you give to McGregor's draft record when picks like MPS and Gagner were pretty much no brainers and none of his others are impact NHL players at this point.
ReplyDeleteWhile it's too early to pronounce any of them failures shouldn't it also be too early to pronounce them successes?
I think the Oilers will draft Canadian early and draft NCAA/Euros late. Its shaping up to be a pretty solid drsft for the CHL. Lots of solid WHL prospects in the 20-50 range.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only person ready to throw something at the TV?
ReplyDeleteFuck Montreal, fuck all the diving fucks on the team, fuck the fan base that screams for a penalty every time one of their forwards takes another flop, fuck the CBC for fellating them throughout this entire "run," fuck the refs for buying into it, and fuck the hockey gods for giving them 3 goals on plays that weren't even fucking shots on goal.
PDO: It's been happening since I was a kid. Seriously. The Habs get more breaks than Carter has pills.
ReplyDeletericharda: Gagner was a KP draft. To your larger point, we can't count the MacGregor picks as impact or anything yet but they're tracking very well.
An example would be Hartikainen. Since being drafted he was named SML rookie of the year and took another step forward this past season.
We can't see the entire bell curve of his career, but the line is on a really nice trajectory.
So Lowetide, that would be "Magnificent Hopefully" then?
ReplyDeleteI gotta love how they keep showing montages of Habs flopping all over the ice and no call, and then no mention of Malkin getting tripped on a fucking clear cut break...
ReplyDeleteI'm ready to throw something at the TV PDO,but it's not because of the Habs.I had to give up HD a couple days ago(long story) and watching hockey in low def is just awful.I'd rather put sharp sticks in my eyes.Awful.
ReplyDeleteA real squeaker in Detroit...6-0 last I checked.Should be a heck of a game 5.
richarda: No, I think we can give credit to MacGregor now. His first draft brought us:
ReplyDelete1. A 22nd overall pick that would go top 10 just a couple of years later (Eberle).
2. A good D prospect playing pro at 20 in Motin.
3. Hartikainen, who really does look like a steal after two seasons in the SM-Liiga.
Cornet is extremely likely to be a tweener but has some jam, and Bendfeld was an organizational depth pick.
Oiler fans can attest to the fact that some drafts begin to fall apart moments after the picks are done.
I think the galling part of all of this is that the Habs think they're playing well and not getting any breaks.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers never go BPA. Their picks will be weighed heavily against the team's needs. It's just how it's done in Edmonton. Some things I'd be comfortable putting money on include:
ReplyDelete- Seguin being the first pick.
- If they go forward at 31, they'll go D with the pick from Nashville.
- they'll reach for at least one player because of "high character", but it'll be the theme of the draft for sure (Hopefully we'll end up with more Ryan O'Reillys than Kyle Chipchuras).
misfit: Yeah, agreed. I think it'll be Seguin and then McIlrath. F-D.
ReplyDelete4g and 2a for franzen tonight. Was a Bertuzzi shinpad away from 5 goal night. Crazyness.
ReplyDeleteand if they can't get McIlrath with the #31 pick, they had mentioned in the past that they would like to draft d-man Alex Petrovic from the Rebels.
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ReplyDeletePDO: What fucking game did you watch? The Habs got screwed over by the refs in this game. The first goal of the Pens was scored on the Penalty, the second, scored on a bullshit call on Gill. Then they call a slash because Sidney is crying. Then Kostitsyn gets interfered, gets his stick brocken after, and no call.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers would be fortunate to get either Mcilrath or Petrovic at 31. They both can defend but they are slightly different defenders. McIlrath brings the hammer, while Petrovic is more cerebral, uses his body effecively, but is no shrinking violet himself.
ReplyDeleteI remember watching the scrap between these two at the prospects game, it was a gooder, McIlrath is a beast of a man. Dude looks like a 10 year NHL vet.
I think they'll have to trade up to get McIlrath.
ReplyDeletei was thinking the same thing, Lowetide!
ReplyDelete"I think they'll have to trade up to get McIlrath."
ReplyDeleteI agree, I'm guessing high 20s for McIlrath, Petrovic has a chance to be there at 31, haven't heard his name much.
i've seen Petrovic here when the Rebels played the Oil Kings and he's good! i can see why the Oilers are eyeballing him, and he's already about 6'4", he'll be huge when (if) he gets to the NHL.
ReplyDeletePatrik Nemeth is the Swedish version of McIlrath and he might be around with Nashville's 2nd or our 3rd.
ReplyDelete6'3, 212 pounds
J20 SuperElit 38 1 19 20 120
He was impressive in the recent WJC-18.
This analysis has some value somehow?
ReplyDeleteWhat does it show? What does it predict?
It ain't the old days anymore.
spOILer: Not to you, but I do believe there's value in tracking prospects from their draft day. Those with good arrows have a better chance, and that has some value to me.
ReplyDeleteThey could end up being Pouliot or Lynch (injury derailments) but three of Stu's 2008 class are looking good two years out and have remained healthy.
Very good signs.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your Winnipeg Jets:
ReplyDeleteThe situation in Glendale remains fluid; if the city does not agree to the league's conditions, it is possible the NHL will instead move quickly to finalize a purchase agreement with Canadian billionaire David Thomson and move the team to Winnipeg. Sources tell ESPN.com there is a purchase agreement ready if the Glendale situation disintegrates.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=5169892
I just came back and read what I wrote... sorry fuck that was rude of me.
ReplyDeleteI just don't get it... would have been a much better way to go.
move the team to Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteI though the minimum for wandering in the desert was 40 years?
That's effin hilarious WG!
ReplyDeleteWell Woodguy, you've been wrong before.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, almost always.
If it comes down to trading both 2nd rd picks to move up for McIlrath, then I think the better move would be to hold the picks and draft a Petrovic/Ross combination with the two 2nds. I like two from the WHL with those picks.
ReplyDeletecouldn't agree more, Bendelson!! glad you notices Bradley Ross too! he's a little on the small side, similar to Jordan Tootoo i've been told, but just the kind of agitator we need, and he can fight!
ReplyDeleteLT said
ReplyDeletespOILer: Not to you, but I do believe there's value in tracking prospects from their draft day. Those with good arrows have a better chance, and that has some value to me.
Oh, I definitely believe there's value in tracking the prospects. Don't know where I said there wasn't, and I'm not sure what that has to do with the above analysis, unless I'm missing something.
I am wondering about the value of tracking draft picking by Region/League, and type of player.
And what that can tell us about now or the future -- or even anything easonably intelligent about past drafting philosophy.