The tough thing about being a parent is that you don't get the report card until you're old as the hills. One minute you're letting the kid borrow the car and the next minute he's showing you pamphlets for the Pine Island Lodge or he's hiring Brownie.
Anyway.
Driving around the city yesterday afternoon listening to Bob Stauffer, I was struck by a comment about Riley Nash. The general thrust of the conversation had to do with the lack of progress for Nash in his three Cornell seasons. I'd also suggest that the poor reputation the ECAC endures contributes to the idea that Nash is wasting away.
So, is he progressing? Let's have a look at the boxcars:
- (age 18) 36gp, 12-20-32 (.889) 28pims
- (age 19) 36gp, 13-22-35 (.972) 34pims
- (age 20) 30gp, 12-23-35 (1.17) 39pims
So, we can see that in straight boxcar terms Nash has in fact improved season over season. He trails Yale's Chris Higgins (who ended up playing in the show) in terms of points-per-game at each step of the way but he's got some offensive talent. Now let's have a look at how much he contributed to team offense each season:
- Freshman 36gp, 12-20-32 on a team that scored 102 goals (31.4%)
- Sophomore 36gp, 12-22-34 on a team that scored 92 goals (36.9%)
- Junior 30gp, 12-23-35 on a team that scored 95 goals (36.8%)
Cornell scored 107 goals in 34 games this season, but Nash missed 4 of them and the total in his GP is reflected above. So, about the same level of output season over season. Here are the totals for EVs:
- Freshman 36gp, 5-10-15 (.417)
- Sophomore 36gp, 8-12-20 (.555)
- Junior 30gp, 8-12-20 (.667)
Now we don't have TOI totals but it looks like Nash has made nice progress at even strength, and it is also reasonable to suggest he's playing tougher opposition than he was as a rookie. Finally, PP:
- Freshman 36gp, 7-10-17 (.472)
- Sophomore 36gp, 4-10-14 (.389)
- Junior 30gp, 4-11-15 (.500)
Again we're not privy to the TOI totals (one can't imagine what would happen if the general public got hold of it. Reefer madness!) but he doesn't seem to be going backwards in this area.
So, is our children learning? I'd say there's evidence to suggest we can answer in the affirmative.
But he's not doing what he is told! Bad boy!
ReplyDeleteCue the tiresome arguments how he has wasted his development time and how he should've participated in the horror show that was Springfield if he ever wanted to play in the NHL.
I maintain this point, he is the likeliest candidate for good 3rd line minutes that the Oil have in the system.
i still have high hopes for him, so i'm keeping my fingers crossed he can not only make the Oilers, but become a scoring star for us.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good post LT, but meaningless unless you have a passport.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu: i'd still lean towards Lander as a better 3rd line option, if only that he has already played and played well against men. NCAA guys should be outperforming and dominating in their 20's, just like 19 year old juniors. I wonder if both Lander and Nash's agents have the same thought: we'll only sign if we are assured a spot (whihch is also what i wonder about both haartikanen? and MPS).
ReplyDeleteI'm OK with both playing one more year in their respective leagues, but i wonder if one will just become trade bait. Nash has never competed on a big stage, where Lander has both competed and led his team at World Juniors and was one of the best players for Timra (i beleive) down the stretch.
package nash if need be. I think the best option is for him to play well at the AHL level and get called up. if we draft Seguin I think it makes it even more likely he is dealt as with Gagner, Seguin and Horcoff we may have our centre position set for the next 4 years.
I could concede that point DBO. It is likely a toss-up between the two, although I think Nash is a little older and done maturing physically. But Lander is another good prospect for the elusive third liner that this team has lacked for years.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any way you guarantee him an NHL spot though; if that is what he's asking (not that I believe it at this stage).
ReplyDeleteWe've had a lot better players not get that guarantee; and have players available who are much better now.
I'd sooner guarantee someone even as far down the chart as Omark a spot than this guy.
It may be improvement but it's not all that much and I would hope a first round prospect would be better at age 20 against the same competition level as he was at 18.
ReplyDeleteThose 6 games really make a difference when you play such a small amount of games. It can be hard to keep that in mind for some people when talking boxcars.
ReplyDeleteI've never been all that confidant in Nash's decisions, but the Oilers surely could have ensured he played in our system by throwing a contract at his brother. We've given out contracts to lesser prospects than Brendan Nash (Ex: Bryan Pitton).
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't shed a tear if he was traded along with the 31 pick to move up in the draft by 6-7 spots. He's not going to net us much more than that unfortunately, and at this point I say we take what we can get.
I would suspect that if the Oilers had something other than a laughing stock of a development system then Nash may have been tempted to sign earlier.
ReplyDeleteI would suspect that if the Oilers had something other than a laughing stock of a development system then Nash may have been tempted to sign earlier.
ReplyDeleteThis would mean more if better prospects in stronger positions were echoing this sentiment. Yet Eberle reported and MPS is open to it. Even Omark who has actually made money is coming.
That Riley Nash thing was based off my email! I contributed to the site!
ReplyDeleteya, i don't think Nash is afraid to go to the AHL's OKC. if he actually went and Eberle was there and MPS with some of the returning guys who could be Alex Plante, Johan Motin, perhaps Chorney goes for a year, Petry maybe? what about Olivier Roy? Dubnyk? the AHL team suddenly doesn't seem to suck so bad anymore.
ReplyDeletei can't remember the breakdown, but didn't riley finish like a bat out of hell once he got healthy?
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1:
ReplyDeleteI don't really like the precedent either, if you guarantee Nash a spot.
However, for the sake of argument, would you be willing to guarantee him a roster spot if he was willing to sign for the league minimum, 500K, with no performance bonuses? Or would you just not be willing to do it, period?
If the kid doesn't sign, what do we get as compensation? An extra second the year after he doesn't sign?
ReplyDelete@Jordan you are correct, I believe 51st pick
ReplyDeleteSpeeds - I'd trade him to somebody that needs him if he wants a guaranteed NHL spot.
ReplyDeleteThere'd be more options if it weren't for the current CBA's limits on contacts and ELC's specifically. I'd have no problem making his deal one-way, so long as I could send him to the minors. (we can't now)
I'd have a serious issue with telling Mr. Eberle, Mr. Hall, Mr. Svensson, Mr. Omark, and many others, that they have one less shot at a job because a non-elite college player is guaranteed a roster spot.
I'm not hard and fast about that. I'd certainly guarantee a guy like Jagr a spot if that scenario had played out. If the right veteran wanted to come play for the team, or some elite junior player who is for whatever reason unsigned, or a dominant European.
The key is, I'm not guaranteeing a spot to anyone who won't either dominate, or bring a key specific contribution that helps the team win. Those guys also know they don't have to make such demands, so it doesn't tend to come up.
I'll never understand why we gave up 2 high picks for this guy. 1 sure, but moving up hardly seemed necessary. Not that any of this is his fault.
ReplyDeleteWe should probably trade him for Tommy Salo.
ReplyDeleteWe should probably trade him for Tommy Salo.
ReplyDeleteThat probably means we can't re-sign Comrie tho. ;)
geowal said...
ReplyDeleteI'll never understand why we gave up 2 high picks for this guy. 1 sure, but moving up hardly seemed necessary. Not that any of this is his fault.
Riley Nash was pretty highly touted in his draft year, despite playing 2nd Tier. The expectation was that he would be gone by pick 30 and possible as high as pick 25.
There was also some thought at the time that Nash would grow physically bigger, based on family pedigree, but that hope hasn't really panned out.
Some Bush (Sr.) Baseball info from Wikipedia:
ReplyDeleteBush had been accepted to Yale University prior to his enlistment in the military, and took up the offer after his discharge and marriage.
While at Yale, he was enrolled in an accelerated program that allowed him to graduate in two and a half years, rather than four. He was a member of the Delta Kappa Epsilon fraternity and was elected president.
He also captained the Yale baseball team, and as a left-handed first baseman, played in the first two College World Series. As the team captain, Bush met Babe Ruth before a game during his senior year.
Bush Jr. OTOH played Rugby at Yale.
That explains the brain damage.
ReplyDeletehttp://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2010/05/hartikainen-deadline-flip-flops.html
ReplyDeleteI was just reading that, speeds. I'm sure it's more complicated than it looks but it really makes you wonder when stuff like this keeps happening.
ReplyDelete"i don't want to play/stay/ here"....man i'm getting annoyed by this garbage!!
ReplyDeleteAfter Brule & Hartikainen, anyone else wondering whether the Oiler Braintrust knew about the cap hit rule on Khabby's contract when they signed him too?
ReplyDeleteGood point Spoiler. Philly didn't know they had tripped up the Over 35 Cap hit rule when they signed Pronger.
ReplyDeletehttp://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2010/05/hartikainen-deadline-flip-flops.html
ReplyDeleteGUY FLAMING IS WRONG.
Riley Nash can read the CBA. He knows the Oilers cannot guarentee him a spot in the NHL. Entry level contracts are two-way contracts. We had to deal with these same nonsense last year with innuendo about Omark.
ReplyDeleteNash is going to Cornell. He is not stupid. He can read. He understands what a collective bargaining agreement is. He can't ask for something that is beyond the power of the Oilers to deliver.
Can we stop with the foolishness please.
The long term economic value of finishing his degree at Cornell next year is probably more than the long term economic value of a year in Oklahoma. Monomaniacal hockey people can't seem to grasp that simple fact.
If Nash has NHL ability, staying the extra year won't matter five years from now.
godot10:
ReplyDeleteNo one is talking about offering Nash a one way contract, obviously that isn't allowed.
Nash has to sign a 2-way contract because of the CBA. People keep saying he's asking for a one-way deal, something which the Oilers are not allowed to offer him.
ReplyDeleteSame blogosphere nonsense like last year with Omark.
The long term economic value of finishing his degree at Cornell next year is probably more than the long term economic value of a year in Oklahoma.
ReplyDeleteHow is this known? Not only would this depend a lot on the actual program he graduates from. It also assumes that going to the AHL somehow precludes him from returning to school if he craps out as an NHLer. A player like Ethan Moreau who's been at or a somewhat above league average his entire career still will make 15 to 20 million.If the chance of him making the NHL were to theoretically increase by some number like 5-10% as the Oilers believe, I don't see why this would be a bad financial move for him.
Spoiler:
ReplyDeleteI realize he may not have made it to us and that the scouts wanted him, I just think it's likely that a player we could have had at 30th + 36th will be > Riley Nash.
It's too early on this draft to judge, most of the 2nd rounders aren't cracking the NHL yet. Maybe Nash will turn into a helluva player. My initial reaaction was this was too high a quality of draft picks to move up for this ugy.
Riley's major is Ag. and Life Sciences for crying out loud. He'll make more money in life if he can be a quality AHL player for 5 years then he would as an Ag major.
ReplyDeleteI really don't see this issue of him siging being about the money he's giving up on his degree.
It appears he's improving a little season over season, but not as much as one would hope. Guys like York, Horcoff, Cogliano, Comrie etc, blew him away. You hope Nash has the offence to cover a third line role but it's not looking great for him at this point.
It may be as simple as Nash (and other players) not wanting to go to a failure situation. Vande Velde (iirc) stayed in school after talking to Chorney, one can imagine Nash might have heard something about the Oilers AHL situation.
ReplyDeleteI'm always surprised by people who want to spend someone else's life in a way they see fit. Nash's decisions are his own, and whatever his priorities they are important enough for him to stay the course.
I don't understand the vitriol.
Okay, I found the reference that I was looking for regarding Nash becoming a FA and not going back into the draft.
ReplyDeleteIt was speeds (of course, see comment #18) over on mudcrutch's site:
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3385
The Wheeler loophole may be closed, but there appears to be another one for Nash to get away through.
Matt Watkins.
//Riley's major is Ag. and Life Sciences for crying out loud. He'll make more money in life if he can be a quality AHL player for 5 years then he would as an Ag major.//
ReplyDeleteThe hidden economic value in an Ivy League degree is in the social networking. The American aristocracy and establishment doesn't much care if your degree is in basket weaving or art history. The test is whether you can fit into their world. If you pass their social "tests", which is what 4 years at an Ivy League school is designed to do, you are allowed entry into their society (if you so choose).
With an agriculture degree, maybe Goldman Sachs will hire you and teach you to trade corn futures, or be a research analyst of Monsanto and Deere.
Guys like York, Horcoff, Cogliano, Comrie etc, blew him away.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff's numbers are actually worse than Nash's in his first three years of NCAA hockey.
For reference:
Freshman: 10-13-23 40GP (0.575ppg)
Sophomore: 14-13-27 34GP (0.794ppg)
Junior: 12-25-37 39GP (0.948ppg)
Maybe that was against tougher competition, I don't follow NCAA hockey so he might have played some pretty tough opponents. People keep saying Cornell is in a weak conference. He did put up some decent numbers in his senior year:
14-51-65 42GP (1.548ppg)
Oh yeah, that's right. Shawn Horcoff took a full four years of university before joining the Oilers organization. What a jerkoff.
One thing I will grant is that Horcoff's numbers every year made more significant improvements than Nash's, but that might mean that, comparing Nash and Horcoff at the same age, Nash is the better player to begin with. In any case, I doubt he's going to get worse next year and there's not really any room in the big club for him, so who gives a shit if he spends one more year in school instead of in the A?
Horcoff showed significant improvement year over year and Nash hasn't. Sure, Nash started further ahead, but he's been guilty of running in place more or less. Will he take the jump we are waiting for next season to justify his draft position?
ReplyDeleteMatt Moulson scored 42 points in 34games as a 20 year old at Cornell. The next highest scorer had 28. That dwarfs Nash's production at the same age.
Byron Bitz scored 28 in 35 at 21 for Big Red and he doesn't have NHL talent except in the grit department.
I'd like to see Nash succeed but he's been trending a little too much like Steve Moore for my liking. I think forwards picked in the first round should be in the mix for an NHL roster spot by the end of their 20 year old season, but Nash still appears to be a ways away.