Today's the day I'm supposed to post on Jason Strudwick's season but I'm not in the mood. I thought it might be a good time to post
Picking over the bones, a chance for all of us to play General Manager for a day. Last year, I suggested the Oilers acquire Halak and Higgins from the Habs. It involved trading down from #10 to #18, and as it turned out Edmonton picked up a lottery calibre player in MPS. So this isn't so much a case of "these idiots can't do it, here's what they should do" as me blue skying some ideas. I hope you throw your thoughts in the comments section, that is the key to this blog. Here's what I would do if they elected me King.
The first thing I'd do is tell Daryl Katz that some of his money is going to Oklahoma City. I don't understand the idea of buying out people in their 20's; if they can't make the team, send them to the AHL and recall when needed. If they are lost on waivers (or recall) then so be it. Next, I try to find a team willing to take on Nikolai Khabibulin (with overpay). This might be a sticky issue with some, but for me there could be a market for this player and would be a big part of my off-season. Sheldon Souray and Ethan Moreau need new addresses, we need to part with some prospects and suspects and it would be nice to improve up the middle (G, D and C).
Here's how things start in terms of depth chart and cap:
- G: Khabibulin (3.750M)
- D: Souray (5.4M); Gilbert (4M); Whitney (4M); Smid (1.3M)
- C: Horcoff (5.5M)
- L: Penner (4.25M); O'Sullivan (2.925M); Moreau (2M); Jones (.975M)
- R: Hemsky (4.1M); Nilsson (2M); Stortini (.700M)
- Total players: 13; Total Cost: $40,900,000
- Cap for 2010-11: $56M (est)
This is a terrible team. Overpaid men include Khabibulin, Souray, Horcoff, O'Sullivan, Moreau and Nilsson. Lordy. So, with that group in mind (and my willingness to send as much as 7M to the minors if necessary) I look at my rfa group with a jaundiced eye:
- G: JDD (1M); Dubnyk (.800M)
- D: Peckham (.700M)
- C: Gagner (3.0M); Pouliot (.850M); Potulny (1M)
- L: Cogliano (1.45M)
- R: Brule (2.25M)
I'm not pursuing a contract with the following: Ryan O'Marra, Bryan Lerg, Slava Trukhno, Josef Hrabal, Geoff Paukovich, Liam Reddox and JF Jacques. If I can sign some of them (especially Reddox, possibly Jacques) that's fine but the Oilers need to cull the herd and holding on to Ryan O'Marra doesn't seem to be helping them. So, I've added 8 rfa's at a cost of $11.05M. As for costs on these contracts, I've estimated and some may be low while others are high. A very established member of the media called me the last time I posted my cap numbers and suggested changes on a couple of the estimates, so I've tweaked some of the numbers. Either way, we're up to 21 players and a cap hit of $51,950,000. Which means we have about 4M for two more players. Here they are:
- UFA: Ryan Stone (.900M); Mike Comrie (1.1M)
I'm saying goodbye to Pisani, Strudwick, Colin McDonald, Chris Minard, Aaron Johnson, Dean Arsene, Charles Linglet and Matt Nickerson. I'd love to have Pisani back as a training camp invite, plus may consider Johnson and Linglet later on in the summer.
Which puts us at 23 players (3 goalies, 5 defensemen and 15 forwards). At this point I want to list my new contracts and minor leaguers who might be in the 2010-11 mix:
- D: Alex Plante (1.075M); Jeff Petry (1M); Taylor Chorney (.942M); Johan Motin (.875M)
- C: Chris Vande Velde (.850M), Milan Kytnar (.563M)
- L: Linus Omark (.875M)
- R: Jordan Eberle (1.1875M)
This increases our roster pool to 3 goalies, 9 defenseman and 18 forwards. Next, I sign this summer's group of kids who can turn pro. They are: Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson, Teemu Hartikainen and Philippe Cornet. I certainly try to sign Riley Nash as well, but if the young man wants to finish his career at Cornell we'll sign him next summer. He's a priority.
Next up: executing the plan. We need to improve at G, D and C, plus see if we can offload Khabibulin, Souray and Moreau. And we're not going to get a free agent defenseman like Michalek or Hamhuis, so this is going to involve trades and low level free agent bets.
Souray is going to be very tough to move and Khabibulin almost impossible unless the overpay involved is enormous or involved taking another stinker of a contract back.
ReplyDeleteThe UFA goaltender market might be even more slanted toward buyers this offseason.
LT,
ReplyDeletePretty sure Kytnar is already signed. Last summer I believe, but they sent him back to the dub.
Moose: Thanks for that, I'll fix it.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone here do the 1OV and Souray for the 2OV and Michael Ryder's expiring-after-next-season contract, and then draft Seguin instead of Hall?
ReplyDeleteI'd do it if not for the fact it would lend legitimacy to that uber-terrible article that Damien Cox wrote about four weeks ago.
Does anyone here do the 1OV and Souray for the 2OV and Michael Ryder's expiring-after-next-season contract, and then draft Seguin instead of Hall?
ReplyDeleteIf Boston beats Philadelphia, they'll be picking in the 27th-30th slot.
PJO - yes, for their pick, but it will have zero bearing on where that Toronto pick falls.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you're trying to get at here....
Oh yeah, PS for PJO:
ReplyDelete1OV - first overall
2OV - second overall
That's my personal convention with these things. Did I cause some confusion here?
LT,
ReplyDeleteIt's difficult to assess your suggestions without having first articulated your goal. Absent a clearly defined objective, any actions will lack direction and cohesion.
But I assume your goal would be the same as mine: win the Cup and bring it back to Edmonton where it belongs. So then the question is: win now, or win later?
You have explained the concept of clusters on a number of occasions, and this compelling notion informs the question of when to win the Cup.
In my case, the cluster forms around this summer's #1, MPS, and Eberle. Everyone else on the roster or in the minors is a bridge to these fellows emerging fully developed when the Win Now window opens. Note Henrik Sedin was drafted in 1999 and won the scoring title this year; not everyone is a Malkin, Ovechkin, or Crosby who wins a scoring title not long after entering the league. It took Sakic & Forsberg years too. So I give my guys nearly a decade to hit their stride. The Win Now window opens in 2017-2018 or so.
Implicit in this cluster management scenario is finding a GM who can manage the second and third contracts for the cluster, and hold the core together until the window opens. Tambellini is not a proven GM in this regard, and as you have stated, the NHL is not a development league for players, nor should it be for management.
Recognition of the time needed for the team to compete around this cluster includes managing fan expectations. "We will field a team with younger players who will be competitive with the help of some affordable, hard working veteran players who will shelter them from the hard minutes. The Oilers may not be an elite team immediately, but they will not be outworked and they will continue to improve." Most reasonable fans will accept this, if not embrace it.
Next up: lets hire some coaches at all levels (AHL and NHL for starters) who, while proven, are not obviously mired in the 1ast century. If we can't spend over the cap on players, let's hire the best scouts, the best video analysts, have the nicest charter jet, the craftiest stick boys, and so on.
Finally, with the cluster identified and the proper management and coaching personnel installed, you can then go to work on your roster. If you want to be Cup ready by 2018, you need to be playoff worthy by 2013 (look at how many times SJ has been knocking at the door). If this means the Hemsky and Penner contracts don't work in this context, it's time to consider the best return possible in the context of your goal's framework.
My two bits-it's gonna be a long summer....
Bohologo: I'd start the cluster with the 2007 entry draft. The Oilers had three first rounders and Gagner is going to be a good one.
ReplyDeletePlante and Nash may end up being less than what we hoped for from 1st rounders but they can contribute (even if it is only as trade bait).
LT.
ReplyDeleteThere's not likely a projected starting goaltender, a top pairing defensman nor a top line forward in the system at the moment unless someone exceeds expectations and with Hemsky and Penner 50-50 to still be here when the youngsters start ripening, I'd have to agree with Bohologo that the cluster really starts with this draft.
On the bench: I'd disagree. Gagner is certainly capable of being an outscorer and in fact is tracking well.
ReplyDeleteThat's my personal convention with these things. Did I cause some confusion here?
ReplyDeleteI misread 2OV as being 20th overall, which I figured was near the range of Boston's pick.
Blame it on early mornings.
But no, absolutely not do I make that deal. Souray probably has some value to a team like Dallas or Washington, and we'd take in a bad contract? Not to mention Hall is likely the BPA.
I do not think that Souray @ $9MM over his last 2 years will be as hard to move as people think.
ReplyDeleteThere are plenty of teams whose real budget has the room for his $900k of extra cap space.
In his alternating results sequence, a good season (~20G) is due next season.
I think he'd fit right back into Montreal pretty well to replace one of the UFA's Markov, Hamrlik or Gill. They have seen him both good and bad.
Here a a couple UFAs that I wouldn't mind the Oilers giving contracts to. Note I would not give any of them any more then one year. For the ranking of advance stats only players with more then 30 GP are included.
ReplyDeleteJohn Madden C (1.5 Million a year)
79GP 10G 13A 23Pts
53% FO, 2:18 SH TOI/G, 15:24 TOI/G
QualComp:-0.002 (7/13). QualTeam: -0.185 (12/13), GFON/60:2.29 (12/13), GAON/60:2.53 (3/13), +-ON/60: -0.24 (12/13)
Dominic Moore C (1.5 Million a year)
69GP 10G 18A 28Pts,
Mtl:53.2% FO, 1:18 SH TOI/G, 14:40 TOI/G
Fla: 55.8% FO, 1:24 SH TOI/G, 14:58TOI/G
QualComp: -0.026 (9/12). QualTeam: -0.018 (8/12), GFON/60: 2.26 (8/12), GAON/60:2.37 (5/12), +-ON/60: -0.021 (9/12)
Richard Park RW (1.1 Million a Year)
81GP 9G 22A 31Pts
51.5% FO, 2:46 SH TOI/G, 15:45 TOI/G
QualComp:-0.009 (7/14). QualTeam:-0.009 (11/14), GFON/60: 2.41 (6/14), GAON/60: 2.91 (5/14), +-ON/60: -0.51 (9/14)
I have identified these three players for the UFA list to be of interest to the OIlers. Each of them is not a white whale, and are coming off below-average seasons for their careers. Why did I choose these three players?
- Each of them has a reputation for being a blue-collar player, a good team mate, and defense first mentality. I could be a benefit to a dressing room that desires a culture change.
- Each of them can play top nine minutes on their respective team (hence they should be able to play them on the Oilers) and they each can play significant Penalty Kill minutes (especially Park and Madden).
- They have a little offensive punch, and should be expected to score 10 Goals and at least 25-30 Points next year.
- Madden and Moore can be useful in the Face Off circle, and we could use the help there.
- Each of them played with the dregs but also against the dregs. None of them where an outscore (but Moore and Park played on pretty crappy teams most of the season). This is not a selling point, but historically they have all been better, and should be next year.
Overall, they would add real nhl players to the Oilers line up and cause competition for the kids. They could be used to take some of the tough minutes while playing in the bottom six, while providing a reliable PP option.
Does anybody see a possible trade between Edmonton and San Jose given San Jose gets poor goaltending against Detroit? Maybe the Sharks would like a new goaltending tandom of Khabibulin and a cheap Turco?
ReplyDeleteLT: from your own post:
ReplyDelete07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.96
08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.69
09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.56
Still playing the softest competition with the best team mates.
Sure, there may be some areas like Corsi and PP production to show a glimmer of progress and I recognize he was playing during a trainwreck but he was in 07/08 as well.
If the Oilers draft Seguin, which I think they will, it shouldn't be long before his PP time is reduced.
Looks line a second line centre to me.
If we are going to be thin on the back end especially with Souray most likely being dealt. Why would we not bring back A.Johnson ?
ReplyDeleteHe was stellar playing significant minutes for us last season. He will come on the cheap and seems like the exact type of d-man we need.
If khabby doesn't end up in jail,send him to the minors,if somebody plucks him off waivers.Send them a box of cubans.
ReplyDeleteIf you think you can move Khabibulin, do you think Washington thinks they need a goalie with a good reputation ? or do they try to add a couple character guys to address their first round exit ?
ReplyDeleteThey were ousted by a team with a better goaltender. Does that drive the owner crazy enough to grab an goalie with a proven playoff track record ?
on the bench.
ReplyDeletejust because gags might not end up being our first line center doesn't mean that the cluster doesn't start in 2007. we're going to get the opportunity to draft a superior player, sure, but the 2007 is certainly part of the solution moving forward.
we'll most likely have another quality pick next year and then begin to improve...that gives us a 5 year drafting window, or which gags and his pals represent the first year of that.
here's what it looks like:
'07 :: 6th :: gagne; 15th :: Plante; 21st :: nash; 97th :: Omark
'08 :: 22nd :: eberle; 103 :: motin
'09 :: 10th :: MPS; 40th :: lander; 71 :: hesketh; 133 :: Roy
'10 :: top 3 pick
'11 :: top 5 pick ??
this aligns with other teams who've used a 5 year cluster to create a base using top picks and having some success in the 2-4th rounds as well:
pens:
'02 :: 5th :: ryan whitney
'03 :: 1st :: fleury
'04 :: 2nd :: malkin
'05 :: 1st :: crosby
'06 :: 2nd :: staal
wash:
'02 :: 12th :: eminger; 13th :: semin; 17th :: boyd gordon
'03 :: 18th :: fehr
'04 :: 1st :: ovechkin; 27th :: schultz; 29th :: green
'05 :: 14th :: sasha; 27th :: finley
'06 :: 4th :: backstrom; 23rd :: varlamov
'07 :: 5th :: alzner
chicago:
'02 :: 21st :: babchuk; round 2 and later :: keith, ellison, wisniewski, burish
'03 :: 14th :: seabrook; 151st :: kukkonen; 245 :: byfuglien
'04 :: 3rd :: barker; 32nd :: bolland
'05 :: 7th :: skille
'06 :: 3rd :: toews
'07 :: 1st :: kane
i know i've posted these lists before, but i think they'll be useful today.
anyhow, the 2007 draft represents the beginning of our "key players" or solid assets, as LT suggested with Nash.
I'd say our only hope of dealing Khabibulin would be to Philly. I can see them getting jacked on a big name and would run with it.
ReplyDeleteIf you can somehow pull it off, you find out what the asking price for Halak and Price are... if it's too high, then you make an offer sheet on Halak for $2,500,000 or so. If they match, then rinse and repeat on Price.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePDO - I like the consecutive offersheets on Mtl's goalies idea.
ReplyDeleteCombine this with my earlier observation about Souray back to Mtl.
Offer the Habs Souray for Price straight up or your going to execute the strategy you outline.
sorry - 'your' should be 'you're'
ReplyDeleteHere is a quick look at the Dmen, I think the Oilers should be looking into this summer. Again each of them is not a white whale. Also that I think we should be signing one year contracts with them. The rankings in the advance stats are based on a 30 game minimum.
ReplyDeleteBrett Clark D (2 Million a season)
64 GP, 3G, 17A, 20Pts
19:08 TOI/60, 1:56 SH TOI/60
55 Hits, 162 Blocked Shots
QualComp: -0.107 (6/7), QualTeam: -0.052 (6/7), GFON/60: 2.47 (4/7), GAON/60: 2.13 (6/7), +-ON/60: 0.33 (3/7)
4x5: 7.38 GAON/60 (4/7), -6.39 +-ON/60 (3/7), -5.36 +-OFF/60
Curtis Foster D (2 Million a season)
71 GP, 8G, 34A, 42Pts
17:11 TOI/60, 3:50 PP TOI/60
60 Hits, 70 Blocked Shots
QualComp: 0.014 (6/8), QualTeam: 0.050 (2/8), GFON/60: 2.67 (2/8), GAON/60: 2.74 (3/8), +-ON/60: -0.07 (2/8)
5x4: 7.04 GFON/60 (2/5), 5.45 Pts/60 (1/5)
Well there are two very different players here, both fit an Oilers’ need: real nhl players. Foster is obviously a puck mover and PP specialist that the Oilers will need since they have or will be sending the Slovak and Big Sexy packing before next season. Foster would push Gilbert and Whitney for PP time, and provide a reliable 2nd team option on the Power Play. Clark is the opposite, as a more stay at home Dman. His hits (maybe physical play) is a little low for this type of player, but his blocked shots would go a long way to replace Staois (yes I think Staois needs to be replaced). He can push for 4 Dman minutes, while providing a solid bottom pair contributor (with ability to pick up some PK time).
-Both players played the weak competition on their teams this year, but both did surprising well. Clark was an outscorer for the Avs, and Foster was only behind Hedman in the bay (based on the +-ON/60)
-Both Players can help on special teams: one on PK and the other on PP, but that is fine as we need help on both.
Overall, I think that the Oilers need to come out of Free Agent Day butting to get a runner on second, instead of swing for the fence. I would suggest that they sign one of either Madden or Moore, plus Park. Then finish off the day with one of Foster or Clark. Yes we get a little older, but add three NHL player for about 4.5 Million all on one year deals. This will not get us into the playoffs, but make us more respectable and provide vets for the kids to learn from and pushing them for roster spots. Oh, and injuries . . . they will happen and we need depth.
this team has to accept that it's had a tough few years of development and drafting and that the clutter it has accumulated to stockpile a last place ahl team, isn't exactly gold. our desire to keep players that are obviously never going to be NHL players, blows my mind.
ReplyDeleteburke's constant acquisition of older college and euro FAs that have an impact at both the AHL and NHL needs to be learned from -- free HQ players. while toronto wasn't a world beater this year, i believe they had 3 "free" impact players coming down the stretch. next year that number could be closer to 6 or 7 -- that's a 1/3 of a team, potentially. meanwhile we're still trying to turn mcdonald into a PK presence.
hopefully we can clear the cupboard with a little more regularity moving forward.
as far as our team:
the wall: i don't think we'll get to move him. hopefully we can get 40 games out of him. part of me wouldn't object to spend another 3m on FA goalie, bringin our goalie cap hit in line with calgary, van, etc but rather than having an "elite" goalie, going with a very good tandem. i like both goalie prospects, but they both need 100 more games in the AHL before they look like NHL players (hello jimmy howard)
beyond having that player that can make the impossible happen, which lifts a bench's spirits, i believe that goalies impact the emotional level of a team the most. our team was severely affected by the emotional sway of soft goals this year. obviously, coupled with horrible end of the rung D and stupifying coaching.
side note...nice to manny and betts sucking up important minutes for key teams in the ploffs this year. good to know we were all onto something last summer.
i've also come around to believing that the team's largest deficiency last year was coaching. i don't think there was one game where our coach "took" one for us. and honestly, those suits are embarrassing and speak to patty's mindset for me: totally out of whack with current trends. seriously, a new suit cut would take 20 pounds off quinn's look.
I agree with the choices and contract numbers almost entirely, with two very small changes. I'd try to hold onto Aaron Johnson for the Oilers and Dear Arsene for the AHL.
ReplyDelete@jon k.
ReplyDeletei watch AJ play in calgary all season where he was completely invisible to bad. his play in edmonton wreaked of a player more concerned about his FA contract than a team player. he has a reputation as a player that had some pedigree, but we're really just looking at a guy who has a major injury history and doesn't really do anything well on D. there's a reason good teams gladly let him go.
i'm a much bigger fan of the suggestion of foster or some proven number 4/5 with a good straight arm.
Taylor Hall is on Sportsnet if you can put up with listening to Loubardious...
ReplyDeleteThe Lucky Habs about to pull off another cunning stunt.
ReplyDeletethanks for the tip PDO, got rid of that sorry to watch Habs game. I thought my hate for them was long gone, but this playoff run is bringing it all back ... still lots of hate on for the 'nucks too, but damn Habs ... hate em !
ReplyDeleteI'm with you pretty much all the way - sat here saying, "yup, yup, yup, uh huh" right until Aaron Johnson - I think he's a beauty and will turn into our answer for the loss of Glencross to Calgary.
ReplyDeleteNot sure how to unravel the Souray puzzle, but I think we take a hit, no matter what we do. What's the legal situation with regard to Khabi's contract if he's convicted and can't travel to America without going to jail?
Enjoyed the Montreal game this aft - particularly to see MAB having success. Always liked him as an Oiler (although I did drop my eyes and look the other way a fair bit during some games....)
ReplyDelete@ Jfry.
ReplyDeleteBy your list, I would says the the Pens started in '03, (Whitney is gone), then they hit 4 dingers in a row.
Washington started with Ovechkin in '04.
And Chicago got lucky with Keith and needed the Kane and Toews drafts to get over the hump.
If you believe Gagner, Eberle, Hall/Seguin and one more relatively high pick match that kind of talent. I think you're going to be very disappointed.
Is Matt Cullen a low level free agent bet? He's the type I'd like to see cover the 2nd/3rd line center spot.
ReplyDelete"If you believe Gagner, Eberle, Hall/Seguin and one more relatively high pick match that kind of talent. I think you're going to be very disappointed."
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about that. Eberle looks like he MIGHT be the next Mike Bossy. Hall looks like he also might turn out to be a huge star, while Gagner, well, I'm pretty sure he's better than he's shown so far, since he's still in my mind a glorified junior.
A lot of mights there, but hey, until 1984 a lot of sportwriters said Gretzky and the Oilers were nothing more than today's San Jose Sharks.
PunjabiOil,
ReplyDeleteWe get it, you want the Oilers to draft Hall. Seriously, we get it.
Danger Man: I would say that Cullen is a medium size fish . . . not quite a whale but a big tuna for sure.
ReplyDeleteHis offensive over the last season (only 16 goals but 48 Pts) gets him pushed up compared to the two centers I think the Oilers should aim for (old Madden or 'nobody want him last year' Moore). I think he'll get 2 million plus for sure.
Hall with 2 assists so far.
ReplyDeleteB.C.B - I'd have no problem giving Cullen between 2-3 million/year, its the term where the fight would start, I'd give him no more than a 2 year deal. He might get a longer deal elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteI like Cullen better than Madden and Moore, because those 2 can only play on the 3rd line. I'd rather have more depth, even if it means paying a little more for it.
If I was the Oil my number 1 goal would not be to attempt to get talent back in deals made this year. I would look to create salary cap space (as an asset) and as a secondary goal target draft picks and let the magnificent one do his thing
ReplyDeleteA team to target I think is, sorry, Washington. I think they could live with a noticeable overpay to get a goalie that can win a series. By now Ted Leonsis realizes that bad goal tending is a death knell in playoffs. They may also take Souray off our hands
All I would want back is Alzner and Boyd Gordon. Ok I would really like John Carlson but that is NEVER gonna happen. To make it work, I would also take the 1 year remaining on the contract of Nylander
I would trade any prospect not named Eberle, MPS or Hall/Sequin for whoever we think is better out of J Harding or C Schneider
We are younger, cheaper, with more cap flexibility and try to build a team to start competing 2012-2013
My goal as GM next year........... to suck (again).
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I am more concerned with OKC than the Oilers. I want Eberle, MPS, Nash and every other pro aged prospect on this team, along with some high end AHL veterans and great coaching to create a good atmosphere.
I sign some 1M per year UFA's to occupy a roster spot.
I ask Hemsky and Penner if they are planning on resigning in 2 years. It doesn't have to be a painfull conversation. It is a business. If you won't resign then why put up with getting killed next year. I trade for picks and prospects.
I am trading Souray, Cogliano and POS for picks and prospects.
Signing Gagner, Brule to a long term front loaded contract that is high cap value now with low cap value in year 3 & 4.
Convincing Khabby to go on injured reserve.
The plan is to suck next year. Give the youngsters sheltered minutes in year 2 and be in the playoffs in year 3.
Interesting thoughts LT. I wonder what kind of changes Washington will make. They seem like a great spot for Souray, especially if we can take salary back in order to help them with their RFA's. Washington media have mentioned that the Caps need to get grittier on the back end, and need a complementary offensive dman for Green, which sounds exactly like Souray. And funny enough they could add a Moreau type to help their bottom 6 since one of their issues was dirty goals and mucking it up (and they lose Walker, so Moreau essentially replaces him). And with his poor playoff performance I wonder if they would consider dealing Semin? He will be due a bunch of money after next season and I think they don't lose too much by giving more time to Fleishman and Fehr (who would cost them a lot less). Semin is a UFA in 2011/12, so not sure how people would feel about it but I'd take him even if we have to move him at the dealine, if only to get Souray off our books in 2 years.
ReplyDeleteSouray, Moreau and Linus Omark
for
Alexander Semin
Next move I pitch Khabibulin to the Blackhawks for Huet and another player (especially if they lose to the Canucks). They get the guy who got them deep in the playoffs, and allow them to have him split time with Niemi during the regular season then ride the hot one in the playoffs. It also saves them almost 2 million in cap space next year. i also ask for another decent paid player they would need to move and send them a prospect who could fill a need in a year of two. Huet is a solid (and overpaid) goalie who is younger then Bulin, stays healthy and is a solid bridge for 2 years.
Khabibulin and Riley Nash
for
Huet and Andrew Ladd (who is due a solid raise to around $2.5 mill)
Lastly, i look to move Cogliano and one of O'Sullivan or Nilsson if possible for d help. i go to the rags, where Sather likes his shiny objects and sell him on Cogliano. The Rags have 2 solid RFA's on d, and the lesser of the two, Dan Girardi, is a solid stay at home dman who will get around $2.5 mill next year. Cogs will be at least $1 mill cheaper, and the rags need some cap flexibility so it helps them.
Cogliano and Chorney (he of the Team USA WC team, lol)
for
Dan Girardi and a prospect
And to fill out the roster (after I have moved/sent down O'Sullivan and Nilsson) is to sign a guy like Jordan Leopold for $1.5 mill(who is solid, and can play 2nd PP unit) and re sign Johnson for peanuts to switch pressbox duties with Peckham and be a better version of Strudwick.
lineup to start next year
Semin-Gagner-Hemsky
Penner-Seguin-Eberle
Ladd-Horcoff-Brule
Jones-Potulny-Stortini
Pou-Stone
Gilbert-Whitney
Smid-Girardi
Johnson-Leopold
Peckham
Huet
Dubnyk
it leaves us with $1.650 mill in cap space (played around with Cap geek.com), and gives us a bunch of money falling off after this season (Leopold, Johnson, Semin) and a crap load in 2011 (Huet, Penner, Hemsky). We are competitive right away, don't kill our cap situation, create more balance in the lineup and move some of the dead wood out.
MPS in the minors, able to come up if we move Semin. If Semin re-signs, then you can look to move Penner or Hemsky for full value at the deadline or the off season. If not, we move him for good value at the deadline.
So many reasonable ideas, particularly from Matt.N and DBO -
ReplyDeleteOne wonders what Tambellini ends up doing over the summer - personally i don't think he's been all that much of a fuck up so far.
And unlike last offseason, not a peep about getting Manny Malhotra - yet.
Any cluster that doesn't involve MPS is nonsense. I think he is a top5 talent, easy, and we were very lucky to pick him up where we did. I think you can make a reasonable case for pushing the cluster back to the Gagner draft--I think he is the kind of player that helps teams win--but there is no way the cluster starts this upcoming draft.
ReplyDeleteObvious On the Bench troll is obvious
dbo, you may have the only plausible landing spot for khabibulin so, well done
ReplyDeleteHemsky and Penner have trade value and it won't diminish if they have another solid year. Their best production was with Horc at centre so I give them all the premium minutes to pump up their value. If someone overpays this deadline, then make a move. If not, a decision is made next summer when we know if they are long term oilers.
Souray has trade value so he is gone somewhere for a 2nd /3rd round pick.
Ethan, Nilson, POS are all in OKC if nobody wants them. This frees up space to take on a salary dump contract for draft picks.
A few targets are Ryder, Strum, Rivet, Kotalik, Sarich, Samsonov, hamrlik, Dumont, Rolston, Witt, Michelik, van demeer, and Finger. All of these guys have contracts that are hindering their teams.
Penner-Gagner-Hemsky
ReplyDeleteBrulé-Horcoff-Nilsson
Pouliot-Potulny-MPS
Jones-Stortini-Moreau
EX: Stone,JFJ
Nilsson, Pouliot, MPS, Potulny, Pouliot, could be shoved to get the 1st pick in the mix (Or Eberle), thus kicking JFJ out.
For the rest I think it's what they assume going into camp. Everyone after Horcoff (Left to right), is not insured of a place.
I think O'sullivan, Cogliano, and the UFA's are gone.
Gilbert-Souray (Gone if possible)
Smid-Whitney
Jonhson-???
Rest is Free for all.
I assume Max 2 kids will make it. I like Plante a lot tough
They keep Dubby Dub and Nikolai
All i posted here is who i think gets head starts. But kids could get jobs in EDM if they burn TC. Tough i don't expect guys like VDV or Kytnar to make it.
Meant to write all day but you can do all the patching up with D-men and Forward and you are still at risk due Khabi in net (crank back, age) for the next few years.
ReplyDeleteSo I see this as a 3 year re-build (to coincide w/maturity of Eberle/MPS/Hall-Seguin) and money is no object:
1) Send Khabi to OKC. No one will trade for they guy, if you're stuck with the contract, put it somewhere where it does not kill the franchise.
1A) Keep DD, trade JDD (more in a moment).
1B) Sign Dan Ellis or a cheap vet goalie and pray DD or Olivier Roy is ultimately the real deal.
2) On D find a couple of inexpensive D-parts (I like Foster, Girardi). You need a 2nd pairing D-man for Smid - who I think will take a big step forward next year. Bring Peckham up as a 6/7 D. Am worried about Smid's durability too, but this is the year. And yes, send Souray to OKC or package him w/a redudant forward (13).
3) Can't argue with sending redundant forwards to OKC (12, 19). Makes that team instantly better.
3A) Buy-out 18. Period. Only one I'd do.
3B) Bring back Pouliot OR trade him and JDD for the rights to Alexander Radulov in Nashville. May not work as Poile may think he'll actually come back after next season. But these are two cheap contracts going to Nashville (who needs cheap players) who has a non-performing asset that they may decide it's time to cash-in.
3C) Under no circumstances do all of Omark/MPS/Eberle start in Edmonton. Bring up 2 and only 2.
3D) Because of 3C - I pick Seguin and let him spend another year in the OHL.
Next year will be a more competitive team - but not a playoff team. You don't want the talented kids hazed anymore than they have been.
Again, to me the goal is win in 2012-13 and this a team that can. Also, w/Radulov coming in, he replaces a Hemsky or Penner who may very well be heading out in 2 seasons.
My two cents.
gogliano said...
ReplyDelete"Any cluster that doesn't involve MPS is nonsense. I think he is a top5 talent, easy"
Based on what?
" I think you can make a reasonable case for pushing the cluster back to the Gagner draft--I think he is the kind of player that helps teams win"
Based on what? Small, slow, easy to knock off the puck and average shot?"
If you can make a reasonable case, make it. So far, you've left me with "I think, I think, I think", which translates in my mind, to "I hope, I hope, I hope"
Sorry, I'm adding one more thing (put it on my tab LT):
ReplyDelete- No way do I bring OTC back to coach next season - make him Assistant GM in charge of OKC. Let Renney nurture the team through the growth pains of the next few season. He's got the patience to take this team through this transition and not lose his patience (which will continue to be severly tested).
moreau gone or bought out. same with o'+/-llivan
ReplyDeletesouray move shouldn't be that hard. souray to the habs for price? to the kings for ryan smyth? hopefully mango bellini can get someone.
can't see any gm who last name isn't mango picking up a heavy drinking back surgery rehabber who played 18 games this year. not for that contract.
keep some/all of johnson, comrie, super cheapisani, jones
trade one of nillson or cogs.
lose jdd. keep dd i guess.
lose struds. too slow.
give whitney the 'c'?
pick up someone. someone good.
hemsky-hall-penner
eberle-gagner-mps
comrie-horcoff-brule
cogs/nils-jones-pouliot-stortini
whitney-gilbert
smid-souray trade(might not be defence)
johnson-peckham(hope he calms down)
khab-dd-someone else please
Orca: Nothing expensive is coming to MTL. And why would we trade a guy touted as franchise goalie for a broken stick?
ReplyDeleteMTL doesn't have money. 12 M$ to resign Halak, Plekanec and Pouliot + filling up the roster.
If Souray's shot is gone, he's useless.
Pretty much agree with your assessment, LT...
ReplyDeleteI dream nightly that we can get rid of all of Souray, Khabby, Moreau & Nilsson.
Naturally, the problem is going to be how.
Let's assume though, that we can trade Souray for Roszival, Khabby and Moreau for picks, and bury Nilsoon if need be. POS... I have no idea.
As far as the depth chart goes, the player I have the most trouble with is Gagner... Especially if Seguin ends up our pick.
My instinct is to keep him and move him to wing, but I don't know if that's the answer. He's going to have trouble winning his share of puck battles along the wall, despite his excellent hockey sense.
And I have trouble with Gagner getting any 1st PP time, whenever Hemsky is healthy. Too similar. I'd rather have a better shooter out there.
But maybe it's okay that he's perpetually our 2nd PvP centre (& 2nd unit PP). He'll always need a big winger though, if that's the case.
Pouliot is another enigma. Can he do a good job for cheap--handling tough defensive minues when called upon and a bigger FO role? If we keep him and take Seguin, strangely we'll have 3 RH centres, which might be a league record.
And finally, I'd probably not re-sign as much of the chaff than you.
So when asking how to accomplish what we need to do, the questions become how far away are we, how should this be timed, how good do we really want to be next year?
Assuming we go for the elite centre pick, the biggest weakness on the team will be a young stud Dman.
We'll need another lottery pick to get that player, which means sucking big time again next year.
Which means it would be stupid to go after a Madden, Maholtra, or Cullen. That bus has left the station, put on 500,000 klicks and is back in the shop for a refit.
If we're going to suck it might as well be in an entertaining way, which will mean playing some of the kids. (not the way I would actually go, but for the purposes of this exercise...)
Sucking though will alienate Hemmer and Penner. If we're going to lose them, it'll have to be through excellent trades--or replacing them through the draft, which means sucking even longer.
And that's one helluva quandary.
As for next year, if we're taking Seguin and continuing to play Gagner then we need a least one winger to play 2nd PvP with Gagner.
This idea of the top 2 lines dragging boat anchors up and down the ice has to end. It needs to be a real winger and preferably not named Comrie or Pisani. Can Fehr be pried out of WASH? That's the kind of player I'd be looking for in a trade to fix the 2nd PvP line. Someone young enough to help down the road when we need it, having size and a scorer's touch.
As for defensive help, I would be targetting UFA Lilja off DET. I don't think it would take much of an overpay for DET to be forced to drop out of contract negotiations, and Lilja can mentor and help transition our young Swede to North America. He's more than a solid replacement for Staios and brings experience that could help stabilize a decimated defense.
If I were GM for a day I'd be pushing the other GMs for a 72 game schedule-the season is too long.
ReplyDeleteAnd the thing with Khabibulin is,our GM actually likes him.I think he'll be on our team in the fall.
The rest of it...I don't know.Tambo could go either way with this team-vets on 1 year deals or scorched earth,we'll have an idea by the draft.
The elephant in the room playing armchair GM is the amount of private information involved in real life: undisclosed injuries, undisclosed personal problems (real or suspected), personality conflicts, interference (or looming insolvency) of ownership, dark feuds and vendettas within the GM circle jerk.
ReplyDeleteAs fans we have no choice but to evaluate team management as if none of this stuff matters, until we almost start to believe it.
Speaking of the Circle Jerks,I saw them at the Polish Hall in the mid 80's.
ReplyDeleteumm....carry on.
08 :: 22nd :: eberle; 103 :: motin
ReplyDelete133 Cornet
163 Hartikainen (go see his video on Copper and Blue)
On the Bench:
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to bother to provide a detailed case for MPS when I know who it is on the other end of the "discussion." (And when we both know that there is no shortage of analysis of MPS' performance on this very blog). I will note that you've provided no support that he--a highly rated draft pick who had a very solid year--won't be a good NHL player.
Dave said: "If khabby doesn't end up in jail,send him to the minors,if somebody plucks him off waivers.Send them a box of cubans."
ReplyDeleteDon't bother with the Cubans, Dave. That GM will already be smoking something else, and it won't be tobacco.
The Oilers seem to be solidly behind Khabibulin - there is nothing more frustrating to me about this team than this. Price probably gets dealt this summer, and I doubt Tambellini even makes a phone call to the Habs about it. It's sickening!
ReplyDelete