Probably Hemsky. The Oilers don't have him signed long term anymore, they have Eberle waiting in the wings and Tambellini wants to make his mark. Tell me I'm crazy.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Trading the Pardubice Prince
Probably Hemsky. The Oilers don't have him signed long term anymore, they have Eberle waiting in the wings and Tambellini wants to make his mark. Tell me I'm crazy.
your crazy (i hope)
ReplyDeleteThis is probably the unpopular opinion, but, if Hemsky has told Oiler management that he has no intention of re-signing in two years, he should absolutely be moved.
ReplyDeleteI have no confidence that this conversation has taken place.
There are four teams I think would be the most interested in such a deal:
ReplyDelete4. Columbus- Lacking that mythical playmaker for Rick Nash. Scott's on the hot seat in a big way and he needs to deliver a playoff team.
5. NYI- Tavares and Hemsky would absolutely dominate the Weak East.
6. Tampa- Same with Stamkos and Hemmer. Deadly, deadly stuff.
7. Carolina- Again, the Canes have a goal-scoring center (Staal) and lack young, high-end skill on the wings.
I dont have a problem with trading Hemsky for the right return.
ReplyDeleteHis comments to the press about holding the cards, and becoming a free agent means if theres anything significant offered, you trade him sooner than later.
Right now he is an asset trapped in limbo of a rebuild. Unless he indicates he wants to re-up long term, and wait the rebuild to come to fruition, which he clearly hasn't, i see little option other than trading him.
This is pure speculation, but I see him coveting a much less rabid fan base than Edmonton. Phoenix/Florida/Tampa etc where Hemmer doesn't have to deal with press or expectations. I'd put the chance of Hemsky resigning with Edmonton at closer to 0% than 50%.
Maybe for an overpay, but if we were going to overpay someone, id prefer a North<->South ES producer to be honest.
Im a huge fan of Hemsky... however Im a bigger fan of the team if we can flip Hemsky for something that can make this team better I say do it.
ReplyDeleteTambellini wants to make his mark so he trades our best player for a draft pick that may or may not pan out?? Wow and if you thought Klowe was bad.
ReplyDeleteNo one is untradeable but your best player is worth a huge return.
ReplyDeleteEse tío está loco.
ReplyDeleteas long as he gets at least 5 assets.
ReplyDeleteHemsky is one player I'd like to retire an Oiler.
ReplyDeleteMaybe he's sick with the pathos surrounding the team. Maybe he's sick of losing. Maybe he wants to play for a winner.
Unless they get the second pick in the draft they're totally insane to trade him. Make that second and third picks in the draft.
I don't think it's a very good idea to trade him before the start of the season.
ReplyDeletePlay a few games and see what you got, then you can check if some guys will be doing as expected and others not (Brulé for instance).
Then trade according to the glarind needs if needed to.
We still got 2 years on his contract, so we don't have to rush it.
Tell me I'm crazy
ReplyDeleteOk
You're one picket short of a fence there buddy.
Though, having said that,
dont forget that in addition to Hemsky,
The Big Lazy's contract runs out at the same time.
The speculation all depends on his willingness to sign again in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteLT, if as Matty mentioned in the live chat a week or two back, Hemsky has decided that he is going to UFA and won't re-sign in Edmonton, what would you do with him?
If Hemsky would even consider staying here at this point, I would absolutely keep and try to lock him up long-term again, but if he wants out, now might be the time.
Off Topic (sort of)
ReplyDeleteI am a big NFL draft fan. Here is a nice article on the science of drafting in the NFL.
http://www.sbnation.com/2010/4/26/1444085/2010-nfl-draft-winners-strategy
I think it's more likely a Cogs+. He seems to be one of the guys still (over)valued out there. No reason not to employ Hemsky for another season, and I expect he'd be interested to see what the Draft#1 looks like, as well as OTC#2.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'd trade any 5 Oilers you could name for Doughty. He was another good reason to cheer against the Canucks - if anyone needed convincing.
In terms of Eastern teams, I would imagine WSH could be interested in Hemsky as well.
ReplyDeleteAnyone think there's some kind of fit there? Obviously WSH doesn't have a top 10 draft pick to offer if that is a necessary part of a deal from an EDM perspective, but they do have a lot of prospects and pieces on the roster that may interest the Oilers. Hemsky also has a pretty decent cap hit for the next couple of seasons. From what I recall of the 2007 draft, the Oilers liked Alzner.
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Hemsky?
I'm almost with Mr D on this. If we're trading Hemmer, might as well trade Penner too. I mean what would be the point of keeping him, if we're going all nuclear here with this blowing of the team up?
ReplyDeleteBut maybe it's not Hemmer.
Maybe it's Gagner.
Unless the offer knocks our socks off, it's too early.
ReplyDeleteNext trade deadline or next summer will both provide opportunities to trade Hemsky, while allowing both him and the team time to see what direction things are going before pulling the plug/trigger.
I would take Doughty in a tweaker's eyeblink too. I've got me some full hard Maguire Love™ for that boy.
ReplyDeleteAnd sheesh, would that solve a lot of problems.
Mr. Wheeler over there on the Boston Bruskis would be attractive too.
But a handful of magic beans for the 2nd best pick of his draft year? That would be a tough supper to swallow. We need another milk cow in return.
Spoiler: One of Kovy or Spezza is crying in his beer because of you.
ReplyDeleteWhatever we get for Hemsky isn't going to make the team better. Teams trading their franchise player (or at least their best player) never get fair value, and they never end up being better off. Trade him if you absolutely have to, but since he's under contract for another 2 years, you don't have to. Maybe next offseason, but not this one.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if the Oilers try to do what the Jays did last summer, that is try to trade their best asset (Hemsky/Halladay) but only if the other team takes on Vernon Wells/O'Sullivan and/or Alex Rios/Nilsson and their bloated salaries.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that it's in the Oilers business plan to trade away anybody good.
It is not a good idea to trade Hemsky this summer for the reasons outlined by Bruce, misfit and others. Not to mention that any hope this team has of having a good environment (ie. wins more than one in 5 games) is gone too. No urgency, no sense and likely to get less than a full dollar's value this summer.
ReplyDeleteFor all of the reasons why this is a bad move, you can count on Hemsky being gone by July. By Captain Decisive!
If they are trading hemsky, we have to look at teh deal in teh context of a rebuild.
ReplyDeleteYes, you get whatever Hemsky's worth in a trade, but you also potentially "gain" by making your team worse, if your goal is to rebuild anyways.
Maybe you are able to move Hemsky for a 5-9 OV pick (I'm not saying they can or can't). But, in addition to whatever Hemsky returns in trade value, they also "gain" based on how many points it costs them in the standings. They also gain the potential value of moving up from ~ 6th OV in the 2011 draft to ~ 3rd OV in the 2011 draft.
in light of this story, i say move Hemsky for Jack LaLanne!
ReplyDeleteI would take Doughty in a tweaker's eyeblink too. I've got me some full hard Maguire Love™ for that boy.
ReplyDeleteAnd sheesh, would that solve a lot of problems.
Mr. Wheeler over there on the Boston Bruskis would be attractive too.
First off, I "third" this love for Doughty - I actually picked up my 35th hockey jersey for my collection on Thursday (yes, it's still growing) and it was a black and silver Kings alternate uniform with #8 on the back. Good investment, IMO.
As for Wheeler, Jim Matheson suggested online that the Oilers demand him as the bounty for laying off Hall at 1st overall if the Bruins are that hot-to-trot for Taylor over Tyler. I'd say that Wheeler plus Seguin > Hall long-term.
As for trading Hemsky, either Lowetide's crazy or Tambellini's bat-shit insane. I'm hoping it's the former.
A couple interesting comments in Elliotte Friedman's blog about Oilers equipment/training staff.
ReplyDeleteAs for Wheeler, Jim Matheson suggested online that the Oilers demand him as the bounty for laying off Hall at 1st overall if the Bruins are that hot-to-trot for Taylor over Tyler.
ReplyDeleteI read this too. The idle thought occurred to me, has even one of Matty's trade speculations ever come to pass? It seems he just throws names out there without more than a second's thought.
He has traded JDD to the Habs about 9 different times, without mentioning a single other possible match that I've heard, because ... he's French?
Bruce: I think Matheson's been going to the Garrioch/Eklund Academy of "Throwing Shit at The Wall and Hoping Something Sticks" the last few years - back in the Sather days, he was THE guy in terms of being wired in.
ReplyDeleteNowadays? Bob Stauffer is the insider-of-record (he attained this mantle when he was the first guy to break "Peca to the Oilers" back on that momentous Wednesday in early August 2005 (waking up to the chatter on the radio about the Oilers acquiring Pronger was, in short, a pleasant occurrence).
Wheeler would seem to be a severe overpay for the right to draft Hall. Past similar trades indicate the return would be a solid prospect or a2nd rounder, not a full blown 30+ goal scorer looking for his 2nd contract.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, if Oilers pass up the chance to draft Hall just because the Bruins toss some other player their way, doesn't this reek of the early 70's, when the "big" teams would routinely rip off the expansion teams, with magic beans and retreads?
ReplyDeleteHockey is, if nothing else, the sport where the teams with the very best players usually beat teams with inferior players. Check out the current Hawks, Pens, Capitals and make sure to forget the Sharks on this one.
PS: I promise to not mention any of this again, but Hall screams star pedigree, while for all anyone knows the other guy could turn out to be a flash in the pan.
ReplyDeleteAll good poker players win by playing percentages. Likewise, bad poker players lose for not playing percentages, and taking chances on 'hunches'.
Oilers draft like idiots - Niiniimaki, Pouliot(okay he turned into an injury machine), and Riley(anywhere but the Oilers)Nash.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder everyone is nervous.
Boondock, I was reading that article and the link to the interview with Chad Moreau before popping over here.
ReplyDeleteThe more I read about it, the most it becomes evident how the departure of Chris Pronger impacted this team. Chad basically flat out says that Pronger was the guy that got the others and management/coaching to buy into devoting the time to training and fitness; and after he left they slowly slipped back into bad habits.
Sometimes I wonder what the Oilers would be like today if Pronger had played out his contract. Also a trade to Philly for Luca Sbisa + Gagne would have been sweet =D.
12/13:
ReplyDeleteLW:
MPS (21)(ev)(pp)
Hartikainen (22)(ev)(pp)
C:
Gagner(23)(ev)(pp)
Brule(25)(ev)
RW: Eberle(22)(ev)(pp)(pk)
Omark(25)(ev)(pp)
Cogliano(25)(ev)(pk???)
Horcoff(34)(ev)(pk)
Hemsky(29)(ev)(pp)
Penner(30)(ev)(pp)(pk)
Do you think there is any chance a 29 year old hemsky will stay for this young a team?
If you bring in Tanguay (cheaper)for two years he duplicates hemsky's skills.
Hall(21)(ev)(pp)
Van De Velde(26)(ev)(pk)
Cornet(22)(ev)
Nash(23)(ev)(pk)
Kytnar(23)(ev)(pk)
Rajala(21)
You are crazy. Trading Hemsky doesn't make this a better team. He has 2 years to go. You don't trade your star player with 2 years left. IF IF IF he doesn't extend next summer, I am on board but maybe one year of playing on a good team gets him to resign.
ReplyDeletelike Mr. Bugg said....the Jackets, Islanders, Tampa and the Canes should be teams we should be working on. if we trade Hemmer, and i'm not against it, then it has to be for as high a pick as we can get. yes he's one of our very few scorers, but like Penner, might still have high trade value despite being injured most of the season.
ReplyDeletefor all the Voracek fans out there...
ReplyDeletehow about Hemsky for Voracek??
Does Voracek cover the bet? Same age as Gagner, big winger, on pace to be probably a 65-75 point player like Hemsky.
Or does Columbus have to throw in their second round pick this year too?
No way Columbus throws in their first rounder, and I would rather have Voracek than Cam Fowler.
Another idea, how about Hemsky for Jordon Staal? Give Pittsburgh a top line winger for Crosby and gives the Oil a first or second line center for 10 more years. Staal and Hall could dominate for some time to come. Would be interesting to see how many points Staal would get actually going on the power play.
prior post not withstanding, I do everything possible to make Hemsky happy and sign him for 5 more years at 5.6 per.
ReplyDeleteChances are 90% that they lose any trade with him...or Tambo will try to get 4 medium players. That would be so stupid..
Keep him. We have 2 years to trade him. Lots of time. He could even get a decent return as a rental in his last year.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, we need him to QB the powerplay and shelter the kids.
Hunter: Tough to draft worst than Minnesota post 2003.
ReplyDeleteoilersfan--i like the idea of a straight up Hemmer for Voracek trade, but i don't know if the Jackets would actually go for it?
ReplyDeleteI think Pittsburgh like sthe "three dead trolls and a baggie" strategy of contending for a Stanley Cup, so I don't think they would trade Staal until they are convince the "three centres and a goaltender" model doesn't work.
ReplyDeleteHemsky's greatest value is right now, notwithstanding he's coming back from injury.
ReplyDeleteHe has two years left on a bargain contract that will be halved a year from now.
Given that Tambellini has spent the last several months "assessing" who wants to be here through a rebuild, I would think it's pretty likely he already knows Hemsky's intentions.
He's gone.
Book it.
My head says trade him while he's still a strong asset (guys in their contract years generally aren't, ie. Kovalchuk this season) but my heart says this team is so boring without Hemsky. :(
ReplyDeleteI think trading Hemsky is on hold till the trade deadline until teams see that he is healthy.
ReplyDeleteSuggesting that he thinks he is underpaid is not a good long term sign.
I think Penner is more likely to re-sign than Hemsky.
(waking up to the chatter on the radio about the Oilers acquiring Pronger was, in short, a pleasant occurrence).
ReplyDeleteI'll never forget Shawn Horcoff's reported reaction to seeing the news scroll across the bottom of TSN: "Sean Pronger? We don't need him!"
To me, it said a lot about the psychology of Oilers fans (and, apparently, Oilers).
if i am Columbus I would absolutely trade Voracek for Gagner. Who knows if Voracek's development stalls or not. Hemsky is a proven high end player, whose point production has been underwhelmed by playing on a crap team.
ReplyDeleteAs an Oilers fan I am not sure we are getting enough back for the exact reason stated above. That's why I would ask for a second rounder, or maybe Mike Commodore to even up the salaries.
Voracek and Seguin with MPS could be a hell of a first line , with Gagner, Penner and Eberle as line #2. That only leaves Penner to try to re-sign long term. If he won't trade him for a younger, tougher left winger who scores 25 instead of 35.
i mean I would absolutely trade Voracek for Hemsky if I am Columbus.
ReplyDeleteThere time is now. Nash isn't getting younger
Oops
If Hemsky wants out you'd be a fool not to grant his wishes because he won't come back. But has he said it or is this just Matheson floating a trial balloon for Kevin Lowe?
ReplyDeleteI'm of the opinion that his value will be highest at next year's trade deadline and would not trade him now. The value and term are still good for another season and it gives him time to see if that's where he wants to play.
I don't think given his injury that his trade value is highest right now and would not trade him yet (even if he's asked - which I hope Matheson's wrong about).
And I doubt Tambellini will get max value back for Hemsky at the draft.
The ideal scenario is that we end up keeping Hemsky and signing him to one of those Chicago-Hossa style deals. Long term, low cap hit. That way, he'd still be around if and when the team is rebuilt. IMO, anyway.
ReplyDeleteAs with every player, it's all about return. If anyone was crazy enough to offer five firsts they'd take it but for a second rounder they'd likely pass. Tambellini said everyone wants a first rounder so I don't read too much into that.
ReplyDeleteBut has he said it or is this just Matheson floating a trial balloon for Kevin Lowe?
ReplyDeleteAll I'm going to say is this: Matheson isn't to Lowe what he was to Sather - when Bob Stauffer starts discussing Hemsky trade possibilities on Oilers Lunch, that's when I start worrying.
i don't remember matheson saying by any stretch that Hemsky asked for a trade, only that he was unlikely to re-sign here.
ReplyDeleteSomeone should do a little research on performance post-torn-labrum surgery. My non-scientific study (of likes like Vinny in TB) is that players suggests that after this surgery, players are never the same. If I'm right, we've seen the best Hemsky is going offer, and I have no problem flipping him if we can get another top 3 pick. This team isn't winning anytime soon, so we may as well really start over.
ReplyDeleteI have no issue trading Hemsky, but you better get a fucking lot back.
ReplyDeleteThat means you either package him to get someone better, or the package you get back is of the "can't turn down" quality. There is no REASON for the Oilers to trade Hemsky right now, so if they do, they better be getting a ransom back.
That means at the very least, a young NHLer, a bluechip prospect, and a 1st round pick.
Trading him for a guy that [i]might[/i] be as good as him one day and hasn't played a game in the NHL yet is fucking insane, even if it's to Boston for the 2nd OV.
Wheeler, Colbourne, 17th (and you damn well push for the 2nd)
Brassard, Voraek, 4th
Okposo, de Haan, 5th
Gleason, Boychuk, 7th
... etc. And there are packages in there you say no to.
The Oilers fucked the dog on Smyth and Pronger and absolutely cannot afford to get back anything less than an staggering offer for Hemsky.
PDO I would love that too but I think you are overvaluing how the rest of the league sees Hemsky.
ReplyDeletePlease prove me wrong.
From Friedman's prior blog entry:
ReplyDelete15. Asked one GM about the market for Sheldon Souray. He said it will be tough for Edmonton and not just for the obvious reasons. "Souray has to prove he's still got the passion to play," the GM said.
16. When I asked if there was any way he could see the defenceman returning to Edmonton, he said, "Depends on his attitude. Ottawa had to get rid of Dany Heatley when it saw how he arrived in camp. If Souray's like that, too, you can't have him around young players you're trying to rebuild with."
17. Edmonton should consider trading is Ales Hemsky. With two years left on a good-value contract, they'll get serious offers.
Hmmm.
OF:
ReplyDeleteIf you're not getting a lot, don't deal him.
Keep him around, feed him offensive minutes, and even if the team is doing poorly, he will get at least a package similar to what Kovy got at the deadline.
There's no rush to deal him. At all.
We still have this draft, next years deadline, the next draft, and the last deadline before he expires.
PDO said...
ReplyDeleteWe still have this draft, next years deadline, the next draft, and the last deadline before he expires.
Yes, but with declining value the whole way.
I would prefer Ales stays and re-signs, but I can see why he possibly won't. If he isn't staying for the re-build, he should be dealt sooner rather than later.
And there should be a goddamned bidding war.
Mr. Bugg said...
ReplyDelete4. Columbus- Lacking that mythical playmaker for Rick Nash. Scott's on the hot seat in a big way and he needs to deliver a playoff team.
Hang on a minute here. I'm an Oiler fan so not familiar with these two concepts. What are "playoffs" and how on Earth would your GM be "on the hot seat" for not making them?
This is completely foreign to me. Where I come from, the GM's job is to suck and look particularly inept while doing so, thank you very much.
PDO said...
ReplyDeleteWheeler, Colbourne, 17th (and you damn well push for the 2nd)
I'm pretty sure Wheeler blows. He's playing in the B league too.
PDO:
ReplyDeleteThere's no way the Oil should wait until the deadline before his contract expires. If he isn't going to re-sign, you move him prior, best bet is the summer before (2011). No way I want to see an Atlanta fiasco here (i.e. Kovalchuk).
I honestly can't see Hemsky being here for all that much more longer, just given what we've been hearing (him apparently wanting out).
ReplyDeleteI'd say move him while the value is still high. Get ourselves either another top pick, or move him for a young, solid d-man.
As far as I'm concerned, we still need that rock on the blueline (our own Drew Doughty, so to speak), as well as an improvement in goal. It looks like we'll be OK at forward for now, especially with Hall/Seguin coming in. Hemsky is obviously our best player, and Oilers hockey gets considerably more boring without him, but I think that we've got some good young players coming up, and we're going to need room for them eventually.
Good teams can rebuild by keeping vets around to tutor the pups, otherwise it's just the blind leading the blind.
ReplyDeleteHemsky is hands down the Oiler's top player. What on earth can be gained by cutting him loose?
Oilers start that crap and they might as well call themselves the Thrashers.
Of course seeing Smyth, Stoll and Greene on the LAKings kind of puts a three hundred foot high hole in my argument, but Hemsky goes and you're practically left with Ethan Moreau as the last role model to lead the way forward, and so far I haven't heard anything about him leaving next year.
Btw, if the Oilers DO move Hemmer, I'd say make it a deadline deal. Hopefully he's still healthy by then.
ReplyDeleteYes, but with declining value the whole way.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if the decline is as big as you think it is.
Kessel, signed for 5 years @ 5.4 was worth two top-10 first round picks and a 2nd rounder in the 31-40 range.
Hossa and Kovalchuk as rentals were both worth a late first rounder, two NHLers and a prospect.
So the difference between what a GM is willing to give to lock up a player long-term, and the price they're willing to pay at the deadline is not that dramatically different.
I realize that by selling to a bottom-feeder you're hoping for draft picks that turn out to be lottery picks. But really, given the difference between keeping Kessel and renting Hossa, I'm surprised at how close the packages are.
BTW, I'm in Washington DC tonight. I've asked 10 people about the game and not one even knew what I was talking about. The Habs-Caps game isn't on any of the ~60 TV stations in the Hyatt I am staying at. What a waste of a good hockey team.
ReplyDeleteI think a package deal of Cogliano and Brule could easily fetch a 1st rounder, possibly even a top 10 pick. Toss in #31 and they could easily get a top 5 pick.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought...
Based on how Tambellini is talking about Hemsky and the smoke coming from the MSM, I'd wager they have already approached 83 about and extension and were rebuffed.
ReplyDeleteIf that is the case, you trade him now. This summer.
2 years of 83 is worth more than 1 year of Hemsky, and bigger deals are way easier to do at the draft since you time to fix your cap before the season starts. Its also less disruptive to both teams.
Schitzo makes an interesting point, but Hemsky is a rung below Kovy/Hossa, so his rental price/ 1 year price will probably be lower than those guys at deadline. Kessel will be close to Hemsky price, IF you trade him now, not close if you wait imo.
A lot of guys are under-valuing here. He is worth more than any pick, including Hall. This guy has the 3rd most assists/game by any RW in NHL since the lock out and he's done that on shitty to average teams. That's worth more than any potential pick unless its a Crosby/Ovenchicken pick and there isn't one of those this year.
Guys like Gretzky say he's might be the best passer in the NHL. Other teams know how good this guy is.
PDO made some interesting suggestions, but I think the Oilers have to add at least the 31st to get those deals done, maybe more.
If you trade Hemsky now to a GM that really needs him, the return you can get has a good probability of impacting the Oilers greater than the 1st overall pick this year.
Which teams have a bunch of very good prospects and high draft pick this year, and has a GM that might not have a job unless they get immediate results? Columbus fits the bill very well, maybe Florida, probably a few others.
If you don't get what you want, don't do it, but if you start the bidding now you should get value.
A bonus consequence if you trade him now is a shittier Oiler team next year and maybe they hit the lottery again.
I'll miss Hemsky, he was one of the few reasons to watch.
"A lot of guys are under-valuing here. He is worth more than any pick, including Hall."
ReplyDeleteThis approaches "Kessel is better than Hall/Seguin" territory for probably the same reasons.
No offence Woodguy, but i base my current evaluation of current Oilers by setting them against old Oiler teams, and Hemsky doesn't measure up to any of the top 5 players IMO.
ReplyDeleteI don't know an awful lot about Hall/Seguin, but hear either one might develop into something very special. Hemsky is a below PPG player, anyway you want to spin it. That's not elite. It's very good, but not elite.
Right now it sounds cool to diss the propects and picks, but if this team seriously intends to win the cup in future, at least some of them had better be able to elevate their games to a higher level than Ales Hemsky's.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteA track record of high end results at the NHL level is worth more than Hall or Seguin, their ability at the NHL level is all projection right now.
The projection is being done by smart people, I think both players will have a good chance at very good NHL careers, but Hemsky has a proven track record, and for a GM who needs to win now that trumps all but the most bonafide of draft picks.
Kessel had only 1 year of high end results, and did it playing with a very good center. 2 years of Kessel is worth less than 2 years of Hemsky, but Kessel's RFA rights (which turned out to be 5 years) is probably not far off of 2 years of Hemsky...imo
LT:
ReplyDeletePut yourself in 83's shoes. Fans think you're soft and essentially not living up to your potential. It's crystal clear that management is composed of a bunch of dummies that aren't going anywhere soon. Also, you are unlikely to see the playoffs in half a decade.
Now what are the chances you put your name on a long term contract with the Edmonton Oilers in 2012?
I know my answer.
kinger: I understand that, but it seems to me the organization has made its decision on all of this stuff before pursuing Hemsky into the future. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe they flew to Pardubice and laid it all out for him and he refused.
ReplyDeleteBut my suspicion is that the Oilers are going in a new direction and that they want skilled players who'll go into high traffic areas.
Except they have one but are too stupid to see it. Bodes well, folks.
Bodes well.
Yeah, it looks pretty grim right now kinger. I suppose things could change a little if the big pick and one or two of the other prospects go big, but I doubt it will happen fast enough to change Hemsky's mind.
ReplyDeleteI think the MTL PK made a deal with the devil.
ReplyDeleteL.T.,
ReplyDeleteWasting the best contract Kevin Lowe ever negotiated is a crying shame.
Doesn't change the fact that this team is going nowhere next year, and a smart GM maximizes value.
Ah I still think the Pronger contract was the best Lowe ever signed.
ReplyDeleteWould Anaheim consider trading Ryan for Hemsky?
ReplyDeleteIs two years of Hemsky at 4.1 worth more to the Ducks than 5 years of Bobby Ryan at 5.5 million per?
jon k,
ReplyDeleteI stand corrected.
Traktor,
Well if that happens then you know Lowe isn't in charge.
I think Anaheim isn't motivated to make that trade.
"I think Anaheim isn't motivated to make that trade."
ReplyDeleteApparently Ryan wants Kessel money and Anaheim doesn't want to pay it.
I don't think their major need is 1RW power play QB though.
ReplyDeleteI could be wrong.
A lot of guys are under-valuing here. He is worth more than any pick, including Hall. This guy has the 3rd most assists/game by any RW in NHL since the lock out and he's done that on shitty to average teams. That's worth more than any potential pick unless its a Crosby/Ovenchicken pick and there isn't one of those this year.
ReplyDeleteI beg to differ, Woodguy. "The third most assists/game of any RW" is about as positive a stat that you can find on the guy, since "assists" accentuates his best offensive asset (playmaking) while discounting entirely his relatively mediocre goal scoring, while "per game" discounts the games he has missed with injury (too many, unfortunately). I agree it's fairly impressive and he's an established Very good NHLer, but a "potential pick" has a very high chance of panning out.
Consider just the top three picks from the eight drafts since Hemsky was himself chosen:
2002: R.Nash, K.Lehtonen, J.Bouwmeester
2003: M.A.Fleury E.Staal, N.Horton
2004: A.Ovechkin, E.Malkin, C.Barker
2005: S.Crosby, B.Ryan, J.Johnson
2006: E.Johnson, J.Staal, J.Toews
2007: P.Kane, J.vanRiemsdyk, K.Turris
2008: S.Stamkos, D.Doughty, Z.Bogosian
2009: J.Tavares, V.Hedman, M.Duchene
When drafted, every single one of those guys was a prospect whose "ability at the NHL level (was) all projection right now", yet a mighty high percentage of them turned out to be very very good to great NHL players, or are tracking to be.
Put it this way: How many of them would you trade for Hemsky one-for-one today? A majority?
PS: Ovenchicken?
Bruce, you've got 24 names there. I'd say only Nash, Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos and Doughty are clearly better players (or will be) than Hemsky. Of the rest, I'd say a third are definitely less valuable and the other third is debatable. So we're looking at roughly 30% chance of doing better than Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteReally, it has more to do with the window to win than anything else. Since the Oilers are the suck right now, a draft pick that won't deliver until 2012 has more value to them than it does to a playoff team. Likewise Hemsky signed until only 2012 has less value to the Oilers.
Trading him is the right move. With Eberle and Gagner on the RW (Gagner hasn't proven he can play centre in the NHL) there is no room for him. Hemsky's recent comments indicate he won't resign anyway. If the Oilers draft Hall, they need a big time centre and they need a strong shut down defenceman to replace/upgrade souray. Hemsky is thier best bet to fill either of those needs.
ReplyDeleteTambi needs to build a team of COMPLIMENTARY players, something Klowe never got. RW and LW (if Hall is drafted and Omark pans out) are overloaded and centre and defense need help. Hello trades!
I have enjoyed Hemsky's play, but we aren't talking Gretz or Messier here.
Do what needs to be done.
Bruce, you've got 24 names there. I'd say only Nash, Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos and Doughty are clearly better players (or will be) than Hemsky. Of the rest, I'd say a third are definitely less valuable and the other third is debatable. So we're looking at roughly 30% chance of doing better than Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteInteresting math, RQ. That "30% chance" is accurate only if all the "debatable" ones - presumably Bouwmeester, both Staals, at least one of the Johnsons, Ryan, Toews, Bogosian, Tavares, Hedman, Duchene - ALL wind up lesser players than Hemsky and only the 30% you have already conceded are better. I for one would trade Hemsky for Toews in a cocaine heartbeat (as somebody so nicely put it the other day) - I'm kinda shocked you didn't list Toews as being clearly better - and wouldn't think a whole lot longer re: JStaal or Duchene to name a couple more. Obviously it's early to call some of these kids but I am 100.0% sure that some of them will turn out to be major stars. Not sure you can apply that term to Ales Hemsky at this point, although he may still mature into one.
The other thing about making such a (hypothetical) deal is that the entry level deal of these guys are generally the best value for money. Hemsky will certainly deliver that for two more years - assuming he's healthy - whereas a hotshot draft pick will have 7 years under the team's control. Which is why the price tag for a high draft pick has gone through the roof in the cap era.
Bruce: Yeah, I forgot Toews.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, we're talking about a lot less than 24 players and yes I doubt most of the others on the list end up better than Hemsky.
The other thing about making such a (hypothetical) deal is that the entry level deal of these guys are generally the best value for money.
Actually I think this is pretty much negated by the astronomical second contract. A whack of those guys will be getting those even if they aren't at Hemsky's level. That's the other edge of the sword with this CBA.
There's also the fact that teams are pressured into playing top 5 picks at 18 even when the vast majority of them are far from elite until 19 or 20. This makes the second contract value even worse.
Of course we're talking about Hemsky here, which means you can't be objective.
We really don't know the whole story but the idea that the whispers are starting to roar because he doesn't want to renew seems a bit off to me.
ReplyDeleteFor a long time guys like Matty and Brownoselee have said that 83 could do more and you wonder where that was coming from. It seems like somewhere along the way they soured on him and now they can use either or both the windows or extension excuse as a way of moving him along.
As good as he is and as much as I like him I have always had the feeling he could be more but my overlying feeling is that he's still damn good and really a great value contract as well.
Now I understand that two years of his services as opposed to one makes him a lot more valuable on the trade market and if they feel he's dug in his heels to the point where he can't wait to get the fuck out of town then it's probably best to deal him.
Note: if I was him I'd privately ask for a trade because the ship is sinking.
Still to say he might be dealt for that reason alone seems a bit off to me because by virtue of some of the things heard and read and implied it seems like MGMT has never valued him as much as the fans did.
So maybe they're looking at windows and timeframes and they figure they'd like to go kids and affordable vets for '11 and barebones it one more year and add one more top ten pick.
I saw Raines and Walker and Pedro dealt so this move won't kill me but the Expos made the last two moves because they were cheap.
The Oilers have been making a lot of moves since the lockout just because they are fucking stupid.
And folks there's a big difference.
Of course we're talking about Hemsky here, which means you can't be objective.
ReplyDeleteRQ: I'm sorry, do you mean "you" as in "me, Bruce", or "you" as in "us Oiler fans". If the former, make your case as to why you think I can't be objective.
Trading Hemsky will end up being the best move since the Pronger signing. Soft as butter, the prince of turnovers will NEVER lead an NHL team anywhere. Get what will be perceived as 85-90 cents on the dollar and we win. We have wingers and we will soon have a #1 C. Get a young D or a tender. If we could get a Price or a Fowler, this is a no brainer.
ReplyDelete