Monday, April 26, 2010

The Blue

If we're to accept Steve Tambellini's scorched earth policy (which may mean cutting so close to the bone they trade Hemsky) one of the main items that will need to be addressed is the blue. Edmonton has the following signed men for 10-11:
  1. Souray 5.4
  2. Whitney 4.0
  3. Gilbert 4.0
  4. Smid 1.3
  5. Chorney .942
Those are their 10-11 cap hits. Edmonton has one notable rfa (Theo Peckham, his cap hit a year ago was $600,000) and three ufa's (Strudwick .700, Aaron Johnson and Dean Arsene .500). They also have a few AHL level players who may get a shot at the show in 10-11:
  1. Alex Plante 1.075
  2. Jeff Petry 1.000
  3. Johan Motin .875
After that, the best prospect on defense in the system is Troy Hesketh based on my projections. So, if the Oilers are sending away Hemsky for a first round pick (plus other assets, possibly totalling 5 which I think may be code for something at a management level for the Oilers. Like "7", or "61") one imagines a defenseman might be the target.

It might even be a guy we know a little about in these parts.

53 comments:

  1. The D corp rebuild is the single biggest issue this team faces. Except for maybe the Penguins you need at least one stud who plays in all situations.

    Hopefully they dump Souray. I am happy with Gilbert, Whitney, Smid and Peckham with a few guys like Plante and Petry bubbling under. Add a so called #1 to that group and suddenly you have a pretty nice D corp with a nice mix of puck movers and toughness.

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  2. I'm not so sure that the Oilers will or should trade their more established forwards for D-men.

    The way I see it, given that Souray wants out, we only have three real defenceman:

    Gilbert, Whitney, and Smid.

    I'd say that means we need a top 4 defenceman in return for Souray. Moreover, I think it makes it more likely that we should try to trade some of the younger skill forwards for some help at D. Say moving out Cogliano + for a young D-man.

    That leaves a depth chart like this:

    Gilbert-Whitney
    Smid-Souray Return
    Cogliano Return-Cheapish Free Agent
    Johnson
    Chorney, Peckham

    Hardly great, but passable, and we don't have to dump Hemsky or Penner for a D-man.

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  3. kris: To be clear, the last thing I want them to do is deal Hemsky. But if (as has been reported) the club is willing to move a veteran for a first round pick (or a deal involving a first) then which Oilers have that kind of value?

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  4. I think Peckham is given every chance to make the team, barring injury. Other than that, Souray and/or Cogliano will likely be traded to help bring in a #3 and a #6/7 Dman.

    I'm thinking this years draft will have a heavy mix of Dmen and Centers, mixed in with a goaltender.

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  5. Let's not talk about Chorney playing for the Oilers next season.

    There'll be Lowetide readers heading for the bridges in droves.

    Lets talk UFA d-men instead

    Dibs on Brian Pothier!

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  6. Why is 20-year old Mike Modano pitching for the Jays?

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  7. LT: I don't think anyone is pitching for the Jays tonight.

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  8. LT,

    Got it.

    I'd say even the Oilers are smart enough to realize you can't move into the top 4 or 5 without giving up your soul.

    And surely they know that 2nd overall pick isn't going anywhere. I doubt even Hemsky would get that deal done, whether that's fair value or not.

    I expect them to try and deal their own second, which is nearly a first at 31 overall, and Nashville's second for the best possible pick, maybe an early midround first or so. Or maybe they try to add Nilsson, Brule, Petry, whatever, to a second to get another shot in the first round. Maybe they try to move Cogliano for a pick around 10th. Something like that.

    I don't know. I'm just guessing, but I really don't see Tambellini as being dumb enough to move Hemsky for like the 4th overall and a roster player. (Fingers crossed.) And a lot of GM's picking that low really seem unwilling to give up their picks anyway.

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  9. Habs just took their 3rd diving penalty of the game. They are certainly an easy team not to cheer for.

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  10. The Caps are never going to win a Stanley playing like this. They're mucking around with the Habs while Crosby is home and dry.

    They're going to need a better defense.

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  11. I swear that Lapierre kid just embellished again on that break away hook.

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  12. Do you think the Oilers would make a play for Carey Price this summer? A Khabibulin, Price, DD depth chart would be quality. Plus edmonton needs a potential future franchise goalie. He could be an important part of the rebuild and would get a chance to develop properly on a rebuilding team. Since Montreal needs size, do you think Penner for Price plus would do it?

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  13. If we're trading Hemsky for a defenseman, I'm looking at names like Bogosian or Schenn, not late 1st round prospects like McIlrath (though I wouldn't mind adding him in some other way).

    If we can move Souray for a guy like Commodore (not much value on the market, but neither does Souray), then I think Whitney/Gilbert, Smid/Commodore make a serviceable top 4. Add a decent vet to wean a rookie into the NHL (Lydman would be great), and you've got yourself a young, but capable defense. No Hemsky trade required.

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  14. And Montreal forces a game 7. With Halak having a 54 saves performance, reaching legends like Roy and Dryden.

    Buffalo is done, and it's tight between Nashville et Chicago.

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  15. Fricking Habs. A bunch of diving, gutless pukes going back 40 years and people hold them up as a model franchise.

    Did you know the Habs got to draft Houle and Tardif in 1969 as a special tip of the cap to their French heritage? What the hell is that?

    I could make a complete list of crap like that (hey, we need a penalty. Ref?) but I'll be dead in 30 years and would run out of time.

    If the Caps can't beat that bunch they're worse than San Jose. Seriously. Man the hell up, dopes!

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  16. If the Oilers wanted to jump the curb and try to make a bid for the playoffs, I think the oppurtunity will be there. With the fall of the Wings, the west is wide open and a lot of teams are currently trying to find themselves. Chicago could be elite if weren't so stubborn with the goaltending.

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  17. ? They had more heart in this series than the Oilers in the last 4 years.

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  18. Lowetide feels the same thing towards the Habs I do towards the Canucks. With the key difference being the fact that Montreal's actually won the Stanley Cup a non-zero number of times.

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  19. To be honest I hate pretty much all the other Canadian franchises. The Leaf fans have been humbled in recent years so they actually don't bother me as much anymore.

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  20. If we are looking at a ufa defenceman, then Weaver from STL has been an absolute beast at PK. He is the defence version of a Malhotra or Nichol.

    Andy Strickland put together these numbers which show how many minutes top dmen play in order to allow a pk goal against

    Player (avg. short handed min. /gp) total short handed minutes / PPGA =PK Production

    (08-09 Season)

    Mike Weaver (2:53) 167 / 7 = 23 mins
    Eric Brewer (4:03) 113 / 9 = 12 mins
    Barrett Jackman (4:23) 359 / 33 = 10 mins
    ROman Polak (2:57) 204 / 23 = 8 mins
    Jay McKee (3:18) 228 / 28 = 8 mins



    PK production for 2009-10 Top 10 NHL defensemen in total Shorthanded minutes this season (as of 3-12-10)

    Player (avg shmins/gp) total shmins / PPGA = PK Production

    (09-10 season)
    1. Jay Bouwmeester (3:58) 265 / 25 = 10.6 minutes
    2. Scott Niedermayer (3:51) 254 / 39 = 6.5 minutes
    3. Chris Phillips (3:44) 254 / 23 = 11.0 minutes
    4. Chris Pronger (3:44) 246 / 29 = 8.4 minutes
    5. Mike Weaver (4:00)* 244 / 18 = 13.5 minutes**
    6. Ron Hainsey (3:49) 244 / 34 = 7.1 minutes
    7. Brad Stuart (3:34) 239 / 33 = 7.2 minutes
    8. Dan Girardi (3:32) 237 / 27 = 8.7 minutes
    9. Robyn Regehr (3:35) 237 / 25 = 9.4 minutes
    10. Marc Staal (3:32) 237 / 27 = 8.7 minutes

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  21. If the Habs win game 7 it's probably the biggest upset of the decade.

    You can argue the Oilers win over the Wings was at a similar level tough.

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  22. MTL plan for success in game 7:

    Take 3 diving penalties: Check.

    Get horrendously outplayed: Check.

    Continue to ride ridiculous PK SV%: Check.

    Spend 90% of the game in the defensive zone: Check.

    Win the game: Check??????

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  23. Kinger: Watch the penalties, theyre ridiculous.

    Give credit to the PK boys, WSH had very few actual chances per what they used to have in season.

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  24. MTL Plan for game 7:

    Score 2 goals in 99 Seconds: Check

    Have a 100% PK: Check

    Halak in Godmode: Check

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  25. Kinger: Watch the penalties, theyre ridiculous.

    I agree, the embellishments were ridiculous. In fact, I thought that they should have sent Lapierre again for falling over after he was legitimately hooked on his break away.

    Give credit to the PK boys, WSH had very few actual chances per what they used to have in season

    Link?

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  26. Kinger: I guess they magically shutdown 29 of those 30 PKs.

    I was speaking of the Gionta one specifically. He got a stick in between his legs while turning. He just tripped and got a deuce. I mean yes they do loose balance even if theyr NHL players at times.

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  27. Habs fans complaining about the officiating. Isn't it rich? Send in the clowns.

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  28. Kinger: I guess they magically shutdown 29 of those 30 PKs.

    Wuh?


    I was speaking of the Gionta one specifically. He got a stick in between his legs while turning. He just tripped and got a deuce. I mean yes they do loose balance even if theyr NHL players at times.


    ACTIVATE 360 SPIN MOVE AIR JUMP!!

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  29. Lowetide: Stop being a sore ass for what happened 40 years ago.

    It's not the same players you know.

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  30. To counter your earlier point WSH has had more chances per what they used to have in season.

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  31. I guess you just never played hockey.

    Gonna compare me to Hitler next?

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  32. Kinger: No i just meant that this happens when you turn and get a stick in your legs at high speed.

    If you believe we can do that barell roll on purpose, well i guess Gionta has Psychic powers.

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  33. fpv: Speaking for myself and presumably everyone else, no one cares about the Habs here.

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  34. Jon K: Even if it's Habs tainted, it's still a great hockey performance. And if they win, it will be the first time an 8th seed overcomes an 3-1 deficit, in the history of the NHL. (Current playoff format)

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  35. FPV: Slow motion youtube on its way. Perhaps when you see it with your own eyes you'll understand what I'm talking about.

    Probably not though.

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  36. And yet they'll still suck. Them's the breaks. If Pollock hadn't cheated those years ago, all those Stanley's would have counted.

    Oh well.

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  37. Lowetide: What do you mean by cheating? I know he ripped off alot of GM's. But i don't know what exactly you're referring to.

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  38. FPB: Please don't make me cheer for Washington.

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  39. fpb:

    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2007/08/pollock-tracer.html

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  40. I said after game five that nobody cares about the habs, but nobody listens.

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  41. Well yes. But wouldn't have you done it if you could?

    But yeah i agree, it's a bit of a trickery there. A shame.

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  42. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb0606YUnBE

    Enjoy.

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  43. You know, they could use an operator like Pollock or sweet Lou in the 780 these days. Just saying.
    ...
    Speaking of hateful franchises, the City of Vancouver has proclaimed tomorrow "Vancouver Canucks Day" in honour of their stunning upset of the lower seeded Kings in the first round. So awesome.

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  44. FPB, you are on the wrong board.

    I figure the Preds loss is a good thing for the Oil and that second pick they got for the one ball man. Any idea what the number is?

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  45. Such a fun thread.

    I could make a complete list of crap like that (hey, we need a penalty. Ref?) but I'll be dead in 30 years and would run out of time.

    "Hey we need a penalty. Ref?" did NOT work well for Montreal tonight. A very strange time to bring up that complaint.

    I don't think I've ever seen two diving penalties on the same team before, let alone three. The first call was outstanding and Lapierre belongs on the watch list for it. The other two were the sorts of thing you see five times every game.

    With the key difference being the fact that Montreal's actually won the Stanley Cup a non-zero number of times.

    :D You really don't like the C*nucks, do you, HBomb?

    Speaking of hateful franchises, the City of Vancouver has proclaimed tomorrow "Vancouver Canucks Day" in honour of their stunning upset of the lower seeded Kings in the first round. So awesome.

    They know the drill in Vancouver, one series win is the limit. Now's a good time to plan the parade.

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  46. If we draft any Dman in the late first early second round please let that kid be Alex Petrovic!

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  47. Engineering a trade for one Mr Byfuglien and giving the Hawks a little breathing room might be a possible answer. Nice versatility being able to play F as well. Hjalmarsson would be another one to go after if they're up against it tough.

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  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  49. Ducey, won't know with certainty until after the second round, but it will be 48, 49, or 50, assuming no 2nd round comp picks.

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  50. Hjalmarsson would be another one to go after

    Not another one - the one...

    He is a RFA - and will be 23 years old next season. He plays big minutes on a good offensive team and does well. Easily worth a three or four year $2.5 million contract.

    Would only cost us a 2nd round pick next season. An instant upgrade.

    And if we manage to trade up for a good defenseman, they will have a couple of years to mature.

    Leaving Peckham on the 3rd pairing for toughness... ;-)

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  51. They know the drill in Vancouver, one series win is the limit. Now's a good time to plan the parade.

    Bruce: didn't the Hartford Whalers have a parade after winning A playoff round in 1986? The ONLY playoff round they won during their existence in New England?

    Proves my point exactly - loser move by a loser franchise. Go Hawks.

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  52. Late to the party, as always, but still.

    Re: Halak stealing the game and the habs being a bunch of diving sucktards

    Well yes, they dive. They also hook, interfere, knee, elbow and whatnot. And they whine at the ref *all the time*. They have been doing it relentlessly ever since game 4. Had they not been an bunch of sleepwalking idiots trying to out-gun the freaking Capitals, they would have started doing it on game 1. If the league, eventually, grow tired of this circus, they'll act on it. Meanwhile, screw the rulebook.

    Also, FPB, last night I had the Caps outchancing the habs 18-15 at ES and 18-4 on the PP. So yeah, I hope Lapierre tones it down G7, cuz these guys are getting their chances.

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