The Springfield Falcons have been awful this season. Most of the top end prospects have not delivered close to expectations and some of these players might be spending their last few months as part of an NHL organization.It's that bad.
The splits are as interesting for the forwards as they were for the defensemen below. Here are the numbers for Falcons forwards from January 1, 2009 through this week:
- Ryan Potulny 11gp, 6-3-9 -9
- Ryan Stone 16gp, 2-7-9 -1
- Rob Schremp 15gp, 3-3-6 -12
- Carol Corazzini 16gp, 4-2-6 -4
- Tyler Spurgeon 17gp, 3-3-6 -1
- Colin McDonald 17gp, 2-3-5 +4
- Shane Willis 7gp, 0-4-4 -2
- Derek Bekar 11gp, 1-3-4 +2
- Bryan Lerg 14gp, 2-2-4 -6
- Guillaume Lefebvre 16gp, 2-2-4 -8
- Slava Trukhno 6gp, 1-2-3 -7
- Geoff Paukovich 6gp, 0-2-2 -1
- Gilbert Brule 8gp, 0-2-2 -4
- JF Jacques 4gp, 0-1-1 -2
- Ryan O'Marra 11gp, 0-1-1 E
- Tim Sestito 12gp, 1-0-1 -4
- Stephane Goulet 7gp, 0-0-0 +1
- Hans Benson 3gp, 0-0-0 E
- Liam Reddox 2gp, 0-0-0 -2
- Cory Urquhart 1gp, 0-0-0 E
Potulny remains the class of the minor league team, with Ryan Stone, Colin McDonald (!!!) and Tyler Spurgeon looking good in this segment.
I'd guess the callup list probably includes Potulny, Stone and Spurgeon and the Oilers may still want to showcase Schremp before the deadline.
Captain America's Thong was demoted to the fourth line last night - O'Marra moved to the third.
ReplyDeleteJust to confirm your supposition about Spurgeon, MacTavish mentioned him the other day as a callup possibility.
ReplyDeleteJust how bad has it gotten with McDonald - a guy we took in the second round as a "scorer?"
ReplyDeleteWell.. we're excited about 3 goals in 17 games in the AHL, in what, his third year there? ;)
If McDonald can take a step forwad, that'l go a long way to salvaging this Falcon season.
ReplyDeleteBut all those minuses
What a train wreck
Even Lefebvre,
who wasn't scoring at all the first 20 games, was a Plus player.
Now look at him.
Jayzuzz.
MacT mentioned Spurgeon specifically in reference to winning face-offs.
re: McDonald, that +4 sure stands out on that list. "Train wreck" is as good a description as any.
ReplyDeleteMan, 15 games, 6 points, -12. I wonder if Schremp realizes that it's not just the Oilers who are going to give up on him, it's the NHL as a whole.
ReplyDeleteHey, O'Marra! Eveeeeeeen! Looking like he might cover the bet!
ReplyDeleteOff topic but...I rarely visit the wasteland that HF has become anymore - but I went by for the hell of it tonight and here is the thread title at the top of the page:
ReplyDeleteWould you get the Oilers logo tattooed on your balls if it meant they won the Cup?
Yeah there's some damn deep thinking going on over there - oh well - one less bookmark cluttering up my sports list.
I don't know a lot about coaching pro hockey, but something tells me it's a lot about motivating the players, particularly in the AHL, where they essentially still have a carrot in front of their eyes(NHL).
ReplyDeleteDopes seem to think MacT's "philosophy" of allowing stupid athletes to run their own affairs is the way to go, which is something I could not disagree with strongly enough. Whether it's Mite or NHL level, someone has to forge a TEAM from various individual agendas.
Then, one imagines there is a connection between the AHL and NHL clubs. Something to connect the two together, so the AHL affiliate is at least producing the odd good player for the NHL team. Otherwise, what's the point.
The way Oilers have been, since fuck knows when, seems to be a headless kind of a team, with the AHL and NHL clubs seemingly disconnected. I might be wrong, but since there doesn't seem to be a lot of information coming from Springfield other than bad news, this fan is left shaking his head, as is usually the case with this team.
Schremp being American hillbilly trailer trash with mad skills, seems to have left the Oilers managers shaking their stuck-in-the-1980s heads. Hardly surprising, on a team that essentially hopes to ice an all-Alberta lineup some day.
ReplyDeleteWhat's pathetic is the manner which some of the fans jump on the hate Schremp bandwagon, essentially proving that they are nothing more than mindless tools of the Oilers organisation, which has, Chris Pronger 2006 miracle aside, proven absolutely nothing to anyone, aside from the private schools they send their kids to.
Oh well. We can all fantasize about Jagr, Hossa(oops), or Bouwmeester again.
Hunter: When Rob Schremp was being healthy-scratched by the coach in Wilkes-Barre in 2006-07 (the team went 51-23-6), do you think it was because he had the same deeply-rooted hate as the Oilers?
ReplyDeleteAnd if so, were the San Jose Sharks wrong to bring him aboard as an assistant after two excellent AHL seasons?
@jw
ReplyDeletethat's a pretty selective way of answering to hunter.
i think his point was that this management/coaching team hasn't had much more success in recent years than schremp has had working his way to the NHL and perhaps it's more of a chicken and egg question. or maybe they're both duds.
your points about the coach are well taken, but a few healthy scratches at the start of your rookie seasons isn't an aberration or even a big surprise no matter the coach or the player. that same coach had some pretty flattering things to say about RS as well.
i'm not defending schremp, but it's obvious that the wind has been knocked out of his sails, which is too bad for him and for the organization.
I'm a MacT backer, but can certainly agree some of his recent decisions are head scratchers.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the number of rookies developed under his watch dwarf all but Sather in Oilers history.
He has no Satan on his resume, there's not even a Walt Poddubny. They sent away Cleary because Pisani at his lunch, that's a hockey decision. Cleary himself says that MacT was central to his development as a player.
MacT can get stubborn on players (Rita) but these men haven't established themselves as a Miro Satan-type. That I've seen anyway.
How does he handle rookies? Before the lockout, Craig MacTavish used 22 rookies (or what I consider rookies) in his 4 seasons, or 5.5 per season. Each season the Oilers brought in at least one rookie of interest (00-01: Comrie, Horcoff; 01-02: Markkanen; 02-03: Hemsky, Chimera, Pisani, Semenov; 03-04: Torres, Bergeron, Stoll), and several took up fairly important positions rather quickly. Much of this was probably due to the finances but this isn't a coach (as has long been held in some circles) who can't develop players. Since summer 2005, MacT brought in defensemen Matt Greene, Jan Hejda, Ladislav Smid and Tom Gilbert (among others). Up front, the parade includes Zack Stortini, Marc Pouliot, Brad Winchester, Patrick Thoresen, Kyle Brodziak, Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner. I count 16 rookies in the three seasons, or a little over 5 a season. This is still a team reliant on the procurement department and although one is certain the scouts still remember Jani Rita and may stew over Pouliot or Schremp, there's been a lot of cadets run through the academy successfully.
What kind of rookie forwards develop well under MacTavish? Vic Ferrari always makes the point that MacT is "typical" of other NHL coaches in that he prefers players (rookies or otherwise) who cheat a little toward their own end of the ice. I understand that but do believe that this coach has shown a very specific and obvious tendency towards defense even in regard to rookie forwards. Fernando Pisani is a guy that may have been passed over (or taken longer to arrive) based on draft pedigree and both the 06-07 and 07-08 teams have had some young players hitting below the Mendoza line and still getting their at-bats. MacT loves forwards who can play solid postional games, and even when discussing kids like Gagner and Nilsson will make a point to mention that they have to ensure the offense they're generating isn't exceeded by what they're giving up. A kid like Gagner is going to benefit heavily from this kind of coach, in a way someone like Rick Nash is only now getting around to in his career.
What kind of rookie defensemen develop well under MacTavish? All kinds. MA Bergeron is the other side of the Pisani coin. This is a player whose size and chaos style would seem to run counter to a MacT team, but again he measures the player against his "offense created/goals against" ratio. Bergeron was eventually sent away but managed to establish himself in the NHL before doing so. MacT has shown exceptional patience with Matt Greene, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid and for a time with Denis Grebeshkov (before the Russian found his way and moved up the depth chart). He has yet to develop a "complete" player back there but that may have as much to do with drafting as anything. There's a large crop of kids on the way, I think Theo Peckham will be the one to respond under coach MacTavish.
Is there an area of concern with regard to rookies? There was a time when people like me questioned his ability to get the most out of quality offensive talents. Mike Comrie scored goals but left Edmonton with some pretty nasty words ("communists") and before the lockout season there was some talk about Hemsky possibly stalling as a player. However, since the lockout and more open offense Hemsky has blossomed and many of the best offensive players are the kids (Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson last year alone). MacTavish has been very effective in using the usual powers of persuasion (press box, playing time, minors) to get the best out of most players and with this most recent season seems to have put to rest the concerns that grew out of the career development of Comrie.
The above was taken from this post:
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2008/07/mact-in-box.html
Jfry: Hunter was pretty selective in his criticisms too, though. I read his argument like this (jump in if I'm misrepresenting you, Hunter):
ReplyDelete- Schremp's American; this organization wants to be all-Western Canadain, so naturally they don't like him. Also, he's modern, while they're stuck in the 80's.
- Fans who don't like Schremp are "nothing more than mindless tools of the Oilers organization."
I'm really not sure that deserved a better answer than I gave him. In 2006-07, Rob Schremp was even on a team that was +55, and his PPG of .77 was behind Erik Christensen (1.5), Patrick Thoreson (1.2), Marc Pouliot (.94), J-F Jacques (.93), Tyler Kennedy (.93), Kyle Brodziak (.90), Ryan Stone (.80), and defenseman Noah Welch (.78). Even discounting Thoreson and Christensen (who spent most of the year in the NHL), that means Schremp was 6th among forwards on his team in production per games played, and his +/- was well below team average.
Compare him even to Kennedy, who was a 4th round pick in Schremp's draft class and a rookie pro, and he looks not so great (Kennedy was +15, btw). The other forwards on that list were 2003 draft picks (1st, 2nd, 2nd and 7th rounds) and not much older than Schremp.
Fact of the matter is, Schremp's had two exceptional seasons; one as a 16-year old, and one in his final year of junior. He hasn't shown much as a pro.
"Fact of the matter is, Schremp's had two exceptional seasons; one as a 16-year old, and one in his final year of junior. He hasn't shown much as a pro."
ReplyDelete@jw...is this an indictment on schremp or on the oilers? all of a sudden he goes from "two exceptional" seasons to being talk radio fodder? anyhow, i think both parties are to blame in this one.
@LT..re: your pasted post. as much as macT has had success with rookies, he's yet to show that he can develop dominant players in any one position. With an average procurement dept, you're bound to stumble upon a few 3rd and 4th liners, what is shocking is the amount of high rounders finding success...while we haven't seen a Satan walk away, I haven't seen MacT pull a brad boyes or a patrick sharp either. He hasn't developed many (any?) elite talents, and as much as Nash is learning to play D under hitchcock you can't forget to that he's always been able to hit it out of the park, something that I haven't seen in an Oiler's jersey in many many years...and certainly not developed in-house (with the exception of Hemsky)...we're on pace for one, maybe two 20 goal scorers this year when MacT said this was the best team he's ever had. Players continue to come here and have career worst years and then leave (lupul, peca, cole?). to me, that outweighs macT's ability to develop role players.
I haven't seen MacT pull a brad boyes or a patrick sharp either. He hasn't developed many (any?) elite talents...
ReplyDeleteSeriously? What about Shawn Horcoff (4th round pick, developed offensive game under MacTavish)? Hemsky, of course, is either an elite talent or getting close to it, and he was coached by MacTavish.
Then there's Mike Comrie - he complained when he left, but nobody coaxed more goals out of him than MacT.
jw...is this an indictment on schremp or on the oilers? all of a sudden he goes from "two exceptional" seasons to being talk radio fodder? anyhow, i think both parties are to blame in this one.
ReplyDeleteTwo exceptional seasons out of four seasons total. His draft season was rather bland (the biggest reason he fell in the rankings, btw).
Anyways, as a first year pro, Schremp was being coached by a guy hired by the Pittsburgh Penguins (Todd Richards, discussed above). Not only does Richards have a great track record, both winning and developing, but he has no Oilers-bias taint to him in his dealings with Schremp. Yet he healthy scratched him while giving time to other Oilers prospects - he would have had no reason to do that except on merit.
i love horc, but will never confuse him for an "elite" talent from a strictly offensive perspective or a natural point producer. he's developed into a beauty, but all his arrows are pointed in the right direction re attitude, conditioning, etc...i think he's one of those guys that would have made it just based on will power alone... and i don't consider mike comrie an elite talent either (also, that was a long time ago).
ReplyDeleteI don't have the time to look it up right now, but my recollection is that we're constantly a middle of the road team on offense with a below average power play and for all our defensive prowess we normally finish with more goals against than for.
anyhow, we probably won't agree on this, but that's the view from my side of the ledger.
i love horc, but will never confuse him for an "elite" talent from a strictly offensive perspective or a natural point producer. he's developed into a beauty, but all his arrows are pointed in the right direction re attitude, conditioning, etc...i think he's one of those guys that would have made it just based on will power alone... and i don't consider mike comrie an elite talent either (also, that was a long time ago).
ReplyDeleteNo, I agree with you there, but you listed Brad Boyes and Patrick Sharp and I think Horcoff compares well with both. But I'm not convinced that the failure to get an elite talent is an indictment of MacTavish or the scouting crew. Who are the elite forwards in the NHL, anyway - this list should be close to the consensus (in no particular order, and off the top of my head):
Malkin - 2nd overall
Corsby - 1st overall
Ovechkin - 1st overall
Datsyuk - 171st overall
Zetterberg - 210th overall
Iginla - 11th overall
Thornton - 1st overall
Lecavalier - 1st overall
Nash - 1st overall
Heatley - 2nd overall
Kovalchuk - 1st overall
Notice a trend? 1st and 2nd overall picks, + Iginla and the Detroit wonders.
The Oilers' only draft pick in that general area (above Iginla at #11) is Sam Gagner at #6, and it's a little early to say one way or the other on him.
The point is that unless you have a lottery team or Mike O'Connell's phone number, you don't get an elite forward. Unless your name is Ken Holland.
Jonathan: You need an upgrade in reading comprehension. Fortunately I occasionally show patience with slow types:
ReplyDeleteTechnically, anyone who isn't Canadian is "modern" by definition, when compared to the 1980's, when the overwhelming majority of players in the NHL were Canadian. And yes, although I don't mind the Oilers having a bias in this direction, I seriously wonder why they even bother to draft anyone from outside this narrow mindset, when in fact they have proven ineffective to a huge degree at developing any offensive player from outside Canada. I went though the "wait for Rita" thing a few years back in the days when the OIlers were ranked in the top of the HF Futures hit parade, only to wither and then die on the vine under our glorious pope-coach.
Then I see Schremp drafted, and have a blistering final year on the Knights. I see him jerked around at his first training camp, since the pope-coach cannot deal with offensive players. The pope-coach loves Fernando Pisani/Ethan Moreau/Shawn Horcoff players and would probably ice a team with a dozen of them, given the chance(actually he nearly has got this nightmare in place right now).
Whatever Schremp's development went through, I see him brought up for 4 games, where he promptly looked quite good. And on a team of mule forwards like MacT has got, it was quite a difference.
Then, Schremp gets sent down, since as we all found out later, MacT simply hates his guts.
Calling him out from thousands of miles away, no less.
Then, as in all situations of life, there are people who are ever so happy to jump on this anti-Schremp bonanza, and yes, they are tools. Tools of the MacT is our father figure club, if a body wants to get psychological about it.
Since if nothing else, I was brought up from day 1 to think for myself, it's obvious to me what's happening to Schremp: He's getting the shaft. Also, as he's from a economically challenged background, I'm willing to wager that his self esteem is taking a big pounding also.
For those who always hated Schremp, and thought he was a jerkoff, I have little problem...it's the johnny-come-lately types who have always made me puke. And to be honest, I have no idea which of these you are, and reserve judgement as a result.
And it is pathetic. Particularly when given the state of the stone handed, 9th place Oilers forward lineup.
Someone should throw in Schremp's estimated TOI totals in London in that final season. Some say it was north of 30 minutes most nights.
ReplyDeleteAnd Hunter: If Jonathan is slow then some who post here are in a coma. Just saying.
@jw
ReplyDeletei think your list is subjective...a little to prove your point.
marc savard, parise, getzlaf and elias are 5,6,7,8 in scoring right now and aren't in that 1,2 slot for the draft.
also, sharp and boyes are much younger and pacing out as being consistent 35+ goal scorers, which to me is dramatically different than horcoff who i see as a 20-25 scorer.
Technically, anyone who isn't Canadian is "modern" by definition, when compared to the 1980's, when the overwhelming majority of players in the NHL were Canadian.
ReplyDeleteThat might be the stupidest thing not written by me that I've ever read in Lowetide's comments section.
I'm sorry Jonathan for insulting you the way I did. I'm sure you know a hell of a lot more about hockey than I do, as do many of the posters who post in here.
ReplyDeleteIf nothing else the level of thought in this blog is sometimes astonishing.
Thanks, Steve.
ReplyDeleteThe line forms on the left.
Of course that statement wasn't meant to be taken all by itself, the quote you are using to crucify me. But you seem to get strung up for anything in blogland.
the falcons are an expansion team
ReplyDeleteHunter: No worries, it's give and take. My level of civility's been a long ways from where it should be from time to time.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't understand how you can argue Schremp was "jerked around at his first training camp" given that when he finally turned pro, he was the 6th best forward on his team in pure offensive production, lousy defensively, and repeatedly HS'd by an unbiased and very good coach.
And if that's his AHL performance at 20, he certainly wasn't ready for the NHL. I don't see how there can be any argument against that - barely above average AHL offensive player, lousy AHL defensive player very rarely equals a useful NHL'er. And just to clarify, in this description I'm referring exclusively to Rob Schremp in 2006-07.
Hunter: Ales Hemsky?
ReplyDeleteOilers got a ways to go for that all-Alberta line-up, at the moment the Alberta natives are Robert Nilsson (an Albertan through and through), Fernando Pisani, Jason Strudwick, Sheldon Souray, and Kyle Brodziak. Seems about right to me, it never hurts to have a little home-grown talent and I'd be disappointed if we had none. But a team that has traded for Ladi Smid, Denis Grebeshkov, Lubo Visnovsky and Erik Cole in recent years doesn't seem to me to have an all-Canadian, let alone all-Albertan bias.
Jfry: Would you describe those 4 as elite? I'd certainly consider them in the range.
ReplyDeleteSeason-over-season, though, are they better than the guys in the list above?
Consider Elias's totals since the lockout:
2005-06: 38GP/45PTS
2006-07: 75GP/69PTS
2007-08: 74GP/55PTS
Plus his highest goal total in those years was 21 (although admittedly that's cherry-picking; his half-season in 2005-06 would have been better). Still, post-lockout is he a better player than Hmesky?
Consider Getzlaf's totals since the lockout:
2005-06: 39PTS/57GP
2006-07: 58PTS/82GP
2007-08: 82PTS/77GP
Clear progression and he's still developing, but he's never topped 25 goals (on pace for 25 this season) and has one season better than 1 PPG. He's murdering the soft opposition this year, but until he has some sustain I'd suggest it's reaching to say he's in the elite category, though he may get there.
Finally, Parise:
2005-06: 32PTS/81GP
2006-07: 62PTS/82GP
2007-08: 65PTS/81GP
He certainly appears to be stepping forward this season, but it isn't clear if these 55 games represent what his constant value will be going forward, or if they represent peak value.
I'll give you Savard, a 91st overall pick whose taken a long and winding road to where he is now. But the other three guys don't have a track record that puts them clear of Hemsky.
Incidentally, I should note that it's never been about Schremp's attitude or lack thereof with me.
ReplyDeleteHe just hasn't had the results as a professional player. Even in junior, he had two good not great years in between his exception 16-year old and 19-year old seasons.
It's about results. That's all it's about.
Remember the Monty Python Spam sketch? Go to YouTube if you haven't seen it. When you play it, replace the word "Spam" with "Schremp."
ReplyDeleteAnd go enjoy your day.
Hunter, you're certainly one of the more interesting posters on this site and I mean "interesting" just the way it is termed, not as a compliment or insult.
ReplyDeleteYou'll fire off insults at anyone including LT and Jonathan, which again I kind of respect since most reserve their vitriol for the weakest but then you'll trip all over yourself apologizing and mocking yourself in a self-depricating way.
All the while, there is some definite knowledge and experience beyond those odd and seemingly random posts. When you first started here you were all-negative all the time and just a few weeks ago you were pretty sunny in your outlook reassuring us all that a team this talented is a dure thing to make the playoffs. And now you seem to be back to doom-and-gloom which I don't blame you for; these are certainly dark times; it's just odd, that's all.
You kind of remind me of Chris Farley's character from the SNL skit, the Chris Farley Show who has guests on, asks them questions and then stumbles all over himself apologizing for being "an idiot".
http://snltranscripts.jt.org/92/92mfarley.phtml
That's funny, I don't find people who insult other people by calling them 'slow' very interesting at all.
ReplyDelete"That's funny, I don't find people who insult other people by calling them 'slow' very interesting at all."
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting, I don't find your lack of intrigue funny at all.
The Falcons primary responsibility is to replicate the parent clubs system and philosophy in order to promote seamless transition to the NHL - either it's a coincidence that both clubs are struggling offensively or the system/philosophy that MacTavish dictates is flawed. I know where I'll put my money.
ReplyDeleteTraktor: As much as I like your premise, I'd like to suggest something - the system put in by Truitt seems to have been quite different from that used by Buchberger. Certianly the results have varied wildly; Truitt's cut down on both goals for and against.
ReplyDeleteIf then, Buchberger's and Truitt's systems are different from each other, is the logical assumption that a) MacTavish has radically altered the Oilers' system from a year ago or b) that the farm team coach is primarily responsible for the tactics used in the AHL?
And I'm asking with sincere interest, because that's a decent premise you have there, but I'm not convinced it checks out.
@Black Dog
ReplyDeleteYou don't find insulting a respected poster when he knows full well the side effects of such a move will be disdain from the community he strives to be a part of "interesting"? A cry for attention? Sure. Rude? Maybe. But as someone who plays a psychiatrist on TV I definitely find it interesting.
Offering up an awful analogy, how about comparing it to wearing a KKK outfit through the Bronx. You know it won't end well but you decide to do it anyway. Interesting?
Johnathan:
ReplyDeleteWhile Truitt and Bucky may have had 2 different systems, it's a guarantee that both were designed by Craig MacTavish.
The only thing that should be taken from Bucky's experience with the Falcons is that he's a useless coach regardless of the system.
Guy Flamming had a post on his blog the other day stating that while Truitt couldn't get things going, he was only following the systems that MacT implemented. That's standard protocol. Every system put forth in Edmonton is ensured to be mirrored in Springfield.
Either the systems suck or the guys teaching it suck - both fall on management.
My only problem with any of this is the props given to our scouting and development staff "drafting good". In my opinion drafting and developing better than the 90's oilers is like a 1st world country pointing at the US and saying "We aren't those guys"
ReplyDeletePeople talk about Detroit but what about Buffalo, San Joses, Colorado, hell even Ottawa over the last 9 years? I don't think our track record relative to the whole league really warrants much more than we've gone from suck to mediocore.
Melfi, is that you? ;)
ReplyDeleteknighttown - nope not at all
I think that Traktor's example of Corazzini a few threads ago is very telling; here's guy who has produced pretty consistently over the past few seasons. For his numbers to suddenly fall off a cliff is a tell I think.
Anyway you look at it this is an indictment of management. Either they have hired the wrong coaches, designed the wrong system or the players they have drafted and signed are terrible.
Based on Corazzini (and hope?) I have to say its coaching / systemic. If its not then the Oilers are in deep trouble.
Guy Flamming had a post on his blog the other day stating that while Truitt couldn't get things going, he was only following the systems that MacT implemented.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall that coming up in the post I remember shortly after Truitt has let go. Which post are you referring to?
I've got no strong feelings about Rob Schremp, one way or another, but those numbers are painful to behold.
ReplyDeleteIn a bit more detail
ReplyDeleteI believe good drafting/development teams need not only be judged by their top picks. I think it's more indicative how many rabbits they pull out of the hat.
2000 draft after the 2nd round:
Colorado: 88 Kurt Sauer
Ottawa: 156 Greg Zanon
Colorado: 159 John Micheal Liles
Edmonton: 215 Matthew Lombardi (oops)
Buffalo 220 Paul Gaustad
2001 Draft:
Ottawa: 99 Ray Emery
San Jose: 106 Christian Ehrhoff
Edmononton: 133 Jussi Markkanen?
Colorado: 144 Cody McCormick
San Jose: 175 Ryan Clowe
Ottawa: 193 Brooks Laich
Ottawa: 223 Brandon Bochenski
Coloarado: 227 Marek Svatos
I'm thinking about trying to put something together, looking into AHL affiliations consitancy, development time spent in minors prior to rookie season etc.
Basically taking the Detroit model and grading a few teams with the oilers against it.
Appologize for babbling but basically what I'm hoping is now at the table:
ReplyDeleteNew money injectd into our scouting and development (Katz)
That tambellini was integrally involved in development with the canucks. Lowe, recognizing our weakness in this area brought him in to begin addressing it.
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2007/06/is-oilers-drafting-record-that-bad.html
ReplyDeleteThanks LT
ReplyDeleteI know there has been some work done in this area (and I know there is a brilliant year by year Oil centric draft record out here).
But I'd really love to see a decade of drafting picked apart (1997-2007).
A weighted grading system based on draft position (1 multiplier for top 5, 1.25 for top 10, 1.5 for rest of 1st, to like a 5 for 6-8th based against a grade '4' for superstar, '3' for top 6 or top 4 D, '2' for bottom 6, 5-6th D, '1' for NHL bounce around quasi regular. With some type of floating bonus for longer development (teams seeing value and willing to work out weaknesses rather than just dump bodies because no one is that concerned that a 6th round pick was a bust)
If built right you could adjust the multipliers until it seems. Build it using say Detroit, NYI (poor drafting development) and say a Vancouver (middle) make it reasonable then bring in the oil and a few of the believed to be better teams(to try and avoid personal bias :)...
I would just love to see a very thorough/reasonable picture that looks not just at draft but also development and how we really stack up (since we started drafting less bad)....
Re:home grown talent
ReplyDeleteI believe someone somewhere once did the analysis that Alberta produces more NHLhockey players per capita than any other province in Canada (and thus, it is probably the most fertile place for finding hockey players in the world).
I believe that Edmonton also is far better than Calgary, and per capita, that Edmonton is the best NHL player producing city in the world.
Barry Fraser was a grass-is-greener elsewhere scout, and well he liked scouting from Mexico. I like the fact the Prendergast and MacGregor have not been discriminating against local talent.
But as someone who plays a psychiatrist on TV I definitely find it interesting.
ReplyDeleteI think you mean psychologist. If you were playing a psychiatrist, you'd have pumped as all full of pharmaceuticals by now.
*Pumped us
ReplyDeleteWow.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing people seem to be able to agree on is that Springfield is having a really bad year. Is it really so shocking that a group of players would have such an off year? The reality is that there are a number of teams out there with the pieces in place that they should be able to compete. And for any number of reasons just can't put it together. We know that Ottawa has been having a hell of a time since they dumped all of the their puck movers, but the fact that they have been AS abismal as they are really says a lot about the rest of the players on the team. They're all good, but none seem to be able to drive the bus without that puck support in their own zone.
If you look at the people who have been playing a lot, and who they've been playing against in the Falcons, I expect you'll see something similar. Many of the puck-movers seem to be getting less ice time, and in situations that do not allow them to really use their skills to their advantage.
Many of you seem to be looking for someone to blame. Why? Will it change what has happened? Will blaming really solve the problem? We have all seen that unless results fall of the face of the earth, changes in this organization are slow to come. Does pointing fingers and arguing about it really make you feel better about the situation? Because unless it does, I don't see the value of arguing about it when you seem to have already made up your minds about who is to blame.
...
I really hope that Wild and Chorney can turn things around and start putting up some offense on the PP. Roy playing that role is... unfortunate. I almost hope he is the Oilers 7th Dman just to make sure that he's not on the PP in Springfield.
Saw an interesting suggestion on HF about bringing in F. Kaberle (on waivers now) for the season, and sending him to the farm team next year. I see a lot of merrit to the idea, both for the short term, and for developing our D-men next year. Having a rock on the back end with all of his experience would seem to be a great boon for someone like Peckam's development. His contract was signed before he turned 35, so it wouldn't count against the cap next year.
COnsidering the value of Good blueliners, I think someone like that on the back end on the farm would probably really help all of the players on the team.
Godot:
ReplyDeleteBob McCown did the per capita NHLers by province. The West did the best in general, but it was Saskatchewan who placed first.
But I think all it really says is that developing a hockey player is easier/cheaper in less populated locations.
kinghttown - I don't know whether to laugh or cry at your analysis.
ReplyDeleteYes, I got pretty sunny in my outlook as soon as I started to see some sense from this typical Oilers season. With a defence playing incredible puck clearing hockey, getting the puck up to those stone handed forwards it was giving them literally twice as many chances as usual, which even for them seems enough to get the job done. Also, there is a certain method to MacT's proverbial madness, which for a few weeks was starting to dawn on me. Like sticking with Roloson, who, after all, would logically be the only realistic starting goalie come playoff time. When he's hot, Roloson is great, when he's not...well we all know what happens. But, like the defence, I was starting to understand MacT's thinking a little more.
But once you lose any one of those top 4 guys, the one single great factor governing this team goes out the window in a hurry. And with it goes my fair weather enthusiasm. Even the blowouts don't bother me, since they are technically not going to lose any more points overall than a 1-0 loss.
What totally depressed me once more was seeing Visnovsky go down. In a stroke, there went the faint hope of playoff upsets etc. Then of course, at the risk of contradicting myself, seeing the Oilers getting bitch slapped yet again by the Wings well...honestly what can I add to that humiliating result?
Bruce: Didn't Hemsky blossom during the lockout?
Even the Barry Fraser Oilers had lots of local talent. Mark Messier, Grant Fuhr, and Randy Gregg are 3 of the 7 guys who won 5 Cups in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteAs for elite talent, it can be seen at age 16 (the #1 overall types) or it can come from completely off the board, such as this pair of teammates (stats since 2002-03):
459 GP, 470 Pts, +11
45 playoff GP, 33 Pts, even
463 GP, 464 Pts, +35
45 playoff GP, 48 Pts, +15
... in which the first, Vinny Lecavalier, is on everybody's elite list, while the second, Martin St.Louis, remains an afterthought to many despite posting similar-to-better numbers over an extended period. As a prospect St.Louis wasn't so much underrated as unrated, went undrafted, then slipped through the net of Calgary's catch-and-release program before finally catching on with Tampa and blossoming into an elite player at 27. I'm not sure he's entirely been accepted as one right to this day, since so much of that is based on reputation and hype which accompanies, even precedes #1 overall types.
I guess LT won't post about it because he's one of his faves:) but I was buoyed today to read the dailies and find out that, seemingly overnight, Smid's rounded into a tough nosed defenseman!!
ReplyDeleteI went and looked at his numbers and saw he was only 17/21 while playing the softest d min possible but I'm sure the papers are right!
Anyway, to further on today's news, Matheson floated some guys that might be available and two guys piqued my interest and I looked them up. One's making 2.2 and the other's making 3.5 and even for a guy with money, it would be hard for Katz to swallow the salaries when you're cooling a guy in the minors which is what would need to happen come 2010.
The first guy's the lesser Kaberle and the other guy is Brett Clark. Kaberle doesn't look good this year and didn't look all that great last year. Clark's -5 this year but was plus 5 last year playing on the top pairing. He impressed me whenever I watched him.
http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=26499
He had a couple of quiet ~40 point seasons and by the looks of it was doing it playing on the third pairing. So then he graduates to a bigger role and he can handle that as well.
I'd love to bring the guy in but I don't want to pay him 3.5 next year and I don't expect Katz to pay him to just chill in the minors. I imagine there's no way he'd get through re-call waivers because you'd be silly not to pay him 1.75 but once again I don't expect Katz to even pay that as dead cap money though I guess that's something that could be suggested to him by Lowe.
Hey, I think I just convinced myself;)
Seriously, though, wouldn't you bet good money that someone would take him at 1.75 mill per? And if that's the case, wouldn't a 1.75 mill cap hit in 2010 be worth it if he could help us take a playoff spot in 2009?
I say yes with the only caveats being this is assuming someone would take him on re-entry plus we don't have to give up to much to get him for the rest of this season.
Still, the guy's a good player.
Finally, I can't believe no one else nailed this joke so here it goes:
Lorenzo Lamas will get a regular spot on the Oilers before Rob Schremp.
Dennis: What makes you so sure that Clark would wind up in the minors next year. He changes the equation, sure, but as an experienced D who can even play a bit of wing as a I recall, he would have his uses in a third pairing. Somebody's going to move along at some point, whether it's Grebs as the 'sphere keeps suggesting or Smid as LT keeps suggesting or Staios as everyone keeps hoping. :)
ReplyDeleteClark turned his career around in Colorado, and posted successive seasons of +3, +3, +5 and +5 before this year's -2 on what appears to be a bit of a sad sack team. He's not the guy who's killingthe Avs, and he wouldn't kill us either. Whereas Strudwick and/or Peckham might.
We gotta do something quick, or we're going to bleed out. There's no way we replace both Vis and Grebs from within. Kaberle isn't a bad option either.
PS Dennis: The timing of that "Ladi is blossoming" article was just blatant.
ReplyDeleterah rah, sis boom bah
Bruce: I'm talking about him being in the minors because we're already paying enough guys on D and I'd rather spend the potential Clark money on 37 if we're gonna decide to pay a 4th D like we're currently paying three others in 44-71-77.
ReplyDeleteAnd, no, I'm not gonna damn his numbers this year because when you're playing in front of that netminding, it's easy to see your numbers slide.
The Smid stuff had me cracking up this morning. Honestly, it's no wonder I seem so arrogant to some when I can see two moves ahead when it comes to the org and the media. Granted, I'm not alone either because there's vets like LT and yourself and young-uns like cam and ty who are on the trolley as well. And if Young JW keeps listening and reading, he'll be writing the Journals articles five days in advance by the time he's 30:)
but it kills me that Brownlee rages and makes ominous statements when I call shit like this right down the middle:)
BTW, JFJ with three assists tonight down in SF: but he finished at even and he had just one SOG.
ReplyDeletehttp://stats.theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1005527
Trukhno, Stone and Schremp all light the lamp, all guys that floundered under Truitt.
ReplyDelete