- Winter 2011: #7
- Summer 2011: #19
The legend of Martin Gernat began right after the 2011 draft’s second day. The Oilers included a major item in their talking points: they had Gernat in their top 35 overall for the 2011 draft. We know scouting departments are prone to hyperbole, but the Oilers brass stood by the statement after taking him in the 5th round (#122 overall) in June.
Redline scout Radim Jelinek: Gernat is a smooth skater with fluid stride and decent footwork for his size. Has very good vision and hands, moves the puck well, handles the puck with confidence making solid decision with puck. Likes to join the rush regularly and shows good instinct in sliding from the point into scoring positions. Just started developing physical play in his game, still very inconsistent using his body, needs to play aggressive, physical game all the time. When he uses it then he is tough to beat 1 on 1, angles forwards to the outside, tights forward up at the boards, hits hard. Lacks strength right now and still growing but has frame to fill it out. D-zone coverage is still very average, needs to read the play better defensively, improve positional play and play much tighter game. Very raw but I like his progress throughout the season and see some similar things in his game as in Martin Marincin´s. He is far from him as Marincin was first rounder in my eyes while Gernat is later-round pick but upside is there.
Kirk Luedeke: Slovakia’s best defender has excellent size (6-5) and good mobility for such a big kid. He’s fluid in his movements and still a little gangly, but had a couple of memorable plays where he jumped in from the point to get a good shot off, but was denied by Gibson. He was burned on a couple of missed coverages, but overall, was one of Slovakia’s better players in a thrashing. Lack of physical play and strength is his biggest shortcoming right now, but he has the kind of projectable upside that makes him a solid sleeper for the 2011 draft.
Stu MacGregor: Watched Gernat a lot. He’s a big guy, skates extremely well, 6’4″, still quite
slim, passes the puck very well. Really quite excited about what he might be able to bring.
Gernat has a wide range of skills. He boasts size, skating, skill, passing and a good shot among them, plus he’s a physical defender when required (took a fairly brutal checking from behind penalty Thursday night). He’s a “rangy” defender from the Dale Rolfe-Jacques Laperriere family tree and plays with confidence. His monthly splits are worth talking about.
- September: 3, 3-3-6 +3
- October: 12, 3-9-12 +5
- November: 11, 0-4-4 +7
- December: 1, 0-2-2 +3
- Overall: 27, 6-18-24 +18
- PP: 27, 2-7-9
- PK, 27, 0-0-0
- EV, 27, 4-11-15

Since this is a somewhat unusual choice at #7, I felt it might be an idea to give my reasons for it. My top 20 holds “wide range of skills” as the most valuable of all traits among prospects. Gernat isn’t reliant on offensive numbers for this ranking, and he can play defense in a very good junior league–maybe the best one.
Gernat’s size (6.05, 191) and speed make him a very interesting defensive prospect. That kind of resume alone could mean a Matt Greene career for this young man. However, I think there’s more to his game, enough offense and defense to play some special teams minutes and play what the kids today call “top 4″ minutes at the highest levels. I watched him closely this past Thursday night and he’s effective without the puck, very long player and strong for his age.
Gernat is not the most certain prospect left on the list, but he has more potential than the 2-way AHL forwards (Pitlick, Hamilton), the other WHL defenseman likely to play in the NHL (Musil) and the tall tree in OKC. I had to establish in my own mind that Gernat’s potential made him enough of a prospect to leap the young men listed above. I’m satisifed he’s bona fide. Martin Gernat is a quality NHL prospect. The rest is up to the Hockey Gods. Godspeed young man. We need you yesterday.


Why didn't the Oilers pick him right after Musil? Or do they claim the picks between were great bargains as well?
ReplyDeleteJonathan: I think it has to do with the fact that Gernat hadn't been scouted heavily by other teams.
ReplyDeleteWe all knew about RNH, Klefbom and Musil. However, the Oilers spent a fairly high pick on an unknown to us (Perhonen at 62) non draftniks.
THEN they took Ewanyk, Simpson and Reider in rounds three four and five. The Pittsburgh pick (the Garon trade) went to Reider, he's the last guy from the famous leagues before Gernat.
I think it's reasonable to believe they thought he'd slide. Of course they thought the same thing about Tomas Kaberle too.
great post, as always LT. I was certainly surprised to see Gernat (and Bunz) ahead of Musil in your rankings, given how high you've been on Musil to this point. Although Gernat's offensive upside may best Musil's, it certainly seems as though Musil is more certain to have an NHL career, and in short order. I suspect Musil is coming up on your list shortly, though.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to seeing Gernat paired with Marincin at the WJHC. That's a lot of wingspan on a pairing!
ironsight: Yeah, actually both Hamilton and Musil are players I really like (Pitlick too, but I don't know if he's going to bring enough offense).
ReplyDeleteThe other guy in the conversation is Teubert, who is also a stay at home like Musil. Those guys always get nicked a little based on the criteria, but if this was a "safe bet" top 20 Musil would already be on the list.
Why didn't the Oilers pick him right after Musil?
ReplyDeleteI count this as a point in their favour. In 2002, they thought Jesse Niinimaki was the best player available at 15th overall, and took him notwithstanding that he would very likely have been available for one of their three second round picks - nice to see them not do that here.
And, of course, the fact that they were totally wrong about Niinimaki (Duncan Keith was the best player still available, though none of the other teams seem to have realized that either - but we could at least have taken Dennis Grebeshkov or Cam Ward, or a bust like Jakub Klepiš who was at least a consensus bust), only exacerbates matters. Niinimaki was only the Oilers' second-worst pick of that draft, though, after their fourth round pick of...nobody (they tried to pick Robin Kovar, but it turns out he was ineligible - at least, if Wikipedia's not bullshitting me).
Steve Smith: Oh that is true. They tried to pick Kovar because he was in the computer, but were denied and docked the pick.
ReplyDeleteVANCOUVER'S table erupted with roars of CHEATERS and the like.
Stay classy, Canucks.
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ReplyDeleteVery surprising.
ReplyDeleteVery surprising considering the smallness of the sample size and the fact he has leap-frogged prospects picked way ahead of him.
I agree with the move up, to indicate the value of the pick and the arrows pointing the right way, but I can't agree placing him ahead of players picked higher with a much bigger body of work.
Fine post as always, love the scouting reports, but I think this prospect is misplaced, considering what we know about him, defensemen in general, and of course, Math.
spOILer: Yeah, that's fair. Gernat gets the number based on a nice range of skills, and he could end up being nothing special offensively.
ReplyDeleteInteresting prospect.
Lol... A 12 spot jump just seems huge to me considering it's based on a couple of months of work. Dmen take so long, and get there by way of winding road through hill and dale, I'd rather be projecting them when they're a lot closer to the bigs. Kind of like what you did with Petry.
ReplyDeleteThis is such a deep list, and with guys like Pitlick graduating to pro and taking a regular shift, and first rounders like Teubert delivering quality minutes in the A and holding his own in the Show, I would be leery of ranking a 5th rounder with some nice arrows in Jr. ahead of them.
Gutsy call, though, and makes for great conversation.
Why the love for Hamilton LT? I dont see it, and I am trying.... I really am. Ive even tried to flush the bias I built up from watching him be invisible for extended periods in Stoon last year.
ReplyDeletethe guy I would have taken from that team was that Darian Durzinsky, enigmatic as well but when the lights came on... beastly. On the other hand, I suspect he would rank just slightly above a beagle or perhaps a pile of said beagles excrement in the interview process.
I've disagreed with every pick so far except for #1 obviously so why would this one be any different.
ReplyDeleteYou could explain your thoughts. Expand on your opinion.. That would be different.
ReplyDeleteHe already did expand on it, a few posts ago when he said that Teubert should have been above Lander for #2.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, asking him for more analysis falls under the heading of "be careful what you wish for".
Ha ha....
ReplyDeleteIf you guys think Petry should be playing ahead of Teubert... well.. I just don't get it. Petry is a newer model of Poti. Teubert has some size and likes to bang. We need that.
ReplyDeleteJonathan: The Oilers played the odds with Gernat at the draft. Players ranked where he was by Central Scouting have a less than 5% chance of being drafted at any point based on draft history.
ReplyDelete