Friday, December 2, 2011

G26 Jackets at Oilers

The legend of RNH is beginning to find voice through stories. The other day on tsn, it was mentioned that NAS coach Barry Trotz chastised veteran Mike Fisher by saying "you know he's outplaying you!" to which the veteran replied "you know he's pretty good, right?"

RNH is among the top 5 scorers in the NHL. Lordy.



In the thread below there was some gentle chiding for one of the C&B folks re:RNH but the truth is that pretty much everyone was wrong about him and parsing "how" wrong begins in miles as opposed to inches. I picked him to play all year in the NHL but big whoop, the kid is soon to pass my reasonable projection in the next few weeks.

We can, as a group, agree on one thing: The Nuge was undersold by the scouting people. Either they really didn't see this or they didn't believe what they saw. I also think his EV TOI totals might have been very revealing and would like to once again suggest that the NHL fund all junior leagues in Canada with the technology required to procure their TOI totals. And then publish them, you dummies. Jeebus. The NHL has a massive audience for this kind of thing and holds on to the "Clarence Campbell recipe cards" technology like grim death. Honestly. What a bunch of idiots.
--

We shouldn't compare RNH to 99 or even Doug Weight, because despite modern scouting and all those eyes this young man doesn't have an obvious comparable. Sublime skill, a worker on the back check, apparently as young as his age and running on pure hockey intelligence.

Stand back, we don't know how big this kid is going to get. The early returns are breathtaking.
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The Blue Jackets have righted the ship in net and are much improved over their last 10 games. This club isn't the one that sunk like a stone at the beginning of the year, and for an Oiler team that can't get out of its own way lately this is an extremely loseable hockey game.

The CBJ and CGY games in the next 48 hours are very important. Lose them both and this team will be pushing 13-15 in the conference. A goal from any line that doesn't include the good Ryan's would be nice.

311 comments:

  1. Curtis Sandford was always an Oilers Killer in Vancouver and St. Louis - hoping that trend doesn't continue (or Mason gets the start)

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  2. But don't 3 of the lines have someone named Ryan, along with a guy on the blue?

    With 5 of them on the team we're at the point where it's damned near impossible that a Ryan won't be on the ice when a goal is scored, in either net.

    Just for kicks, I'd like to see Renny put Smyth on the point with Whitney, then run RNH, Jones, and O'Marra. Even if it's just for an Offensive zone faceoff with 1.2 seconds left in the period. I'd take a screen grab of that and frame it.

    We should probably trade for Ryan Miller too, to complete the set.

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  3. Well, I did say the "good" Ryans and line. So it's an insult to Ryan Jones (who has played very well this season) but makes the point.

    And I'm not sure Whitney has earned the name "Ryan" after coming back from injury. He's no "Cam" but he's not Ryan either.

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  4. Here we are: the Oilers at a point in the season where they rise above or stay behind. 3 PTS (I have little faith they can grab an extra SO point - even though Ebs gives them a goal in the first round of shooters. Raise the puck boys!) and all is well. Two loses and the playoffs are still a distant bell.

    RNH prediction: 25 goals and 75 points, Rookie of the year and the beginning of an Etown legend.

    The Hemsky situation is getting interesting by my eye... Sulking? Injured and CAN'T perform? One way or another, this is the next major decision for the Oil and his recent play suggests a move might/should be in the cards for Dec/Jan.

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  5. I had a nice chat with Louise re: Hemsky, and she pointed out that 83 trusts Horcoff and Gagner and if that line stays together we should see good things.

    I agree completely.

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  6. Sure as hell hope so LT. Gags and Horc seemed to be playing great last game and (I thought) Hemsky was the very disappointing weak link.

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  7. One final thought on Hemmer. It's a question of consistency isn't it? He seems to be lively one shift and absent for another and another. Maybe sticking with one line will help, or maybe the shoulder is preventing the confidence required to perform at a high level game/game out. Either way he is DRIVING ME CRAZY with the hohum play as of late.

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  8. Coming from a junior team that played a defensive style and rolled 4 lines, whenever possible, RNH's stats were almost impossible to project to the NHL.

    Another reason why he's been so much better than anticipated, is that I feel he's learning the NHL game at a fantastic rate, and that's showing in his confidence. Watching him on the near side half-boards during the PP, the defenders know that he's going to make that cross-box pass, but it doesn't matter! He waits them out, makes multiple fake pass attempts while stick-handling, and then just zips it across - right on the tape.

    We've seen players who can pull that stuff in junior all day long, and they rarely figure out how to replicate that level of play in the NHL without years of development.

    The big question is, where is the limit for RNH?

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  9. Meh. As wrong as I was on him, I'l say it again, that some scouting reports (Button, RLR) come from the dinosaurian ages.

    I hate when they absolutely have to compare a player to anolther one. RNH isn't close to Sakic.

    Great players aren't another, they're themselves.

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  10. Jordan Ryan Eberle.

    Somebody call his mom, get it done.



    noonur - well, not quite. But a beer would still taste good right about now.

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  11. When Doug Weight had that look you *knew* something was going to happen that shift. Those were fun times.

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  12. We shouldn't compare RNH to 99 or even Doug Weight, because despite modern scouting and all those eyes this young man doesn't have an obvious comparable. Sublime skill, a worker on the back check, apparently as young as his age and running on pure hockey intelligence.

    No comp? Horse-puckey... if we're talking style comps. His style is dead obvious and you just did a wonderful job of describing it yourself. Your description places him as a bough on the Clarke, Gretzky, Datsyuk Etz Chaim. Easy-peasey.

    But if we're talking the type of comps the scouts use, where they use a pair of players to describe the lower and upper scoring boundaries of a prospect, then yes, that's a little tough right now and probably would require a little kabalistic soothsaying to figure out how far up the Sephiroth he might climb. His range could probably be described as something like Weiss to Crosby+, which really doesn't tell us a whole lot when it is so broad.

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  13. FPB, you were pretty vocal against RNH and clearly wrong about him. But give yourself credit as well; you were also dead on about Couturier.

    Sean is a beast so far, and playing shutdown C as an 18 year old while still posting decent offensive numbers. That's just unheard of.

    My pick for 1st overall, and another of your whipping boys =), in Larsson is playing 1st and 2nd pairing D right now as well and contributing. Also pretty rare for an 18 year old straight from Sweden no less.

    Other than trying to defame the players competing with your favourite, you were right to be so bullish on Couts. Damn that kid is a helluva player. Remains to be seen who'll emerge as the best of the draft 10 years from now.

    Wonder if Stranglehold can win the scoring race though, pipe dream and all, but that would be something.

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  14. Hemsky:
    Whenever the play is stopped and they cut to hemsky, he is ALLWAYS rubbing the shoulder.


    For me we have a RW wild Card developing.

    T. Reider.
    1.33PPG for the season as a Jan 93 player.
    Currently above .75GPG at this age.
    Projects to 50-55PTs but .75GPG in OHL U19.

    2011 Rieder
    2010 Yakupov, Toffoli, Thomas
    2009 Skinner, Seguin,
    2008 Tavares, Hodgson
    2007 Stamkos
    2006 P. Kane
    2003 P. Osullivan
    2002 C. Locke
    2001 Spezza
    Who knows but interesting?

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  15. CBJ's record when Sandford starts:

    8gs 4-2-2 pts% 0.625

    Mason starts:

    16gs 3-12-1 pts% 0.219

    Certainly Sanford is riding an unsustainable .937, but even when his number settles its not Mason's .875

    Wiz is back, Carter is back. Nikitin has been playing north of 20 min/gm and has helped settled the top 4.

    They've been 5-3-2 in last 10 compared to Oilers 3-6-1.

    The one thing in the Oilers favor tonight is CBJ playing OT last night in CAL.

    Line right now is EDM -150 and that's too much. EDM -120 is probably closer.

    91 was starting to skate with the puck like he can again last game and drew 2 penalties.

    If he can keep doing that, it will help the team immensely with a two pronged effect:

    1) More SC for 3rd line
    2) More PP time for the NHL's 4th best PP in term of %.

    This game is a gotta-have.

    Hope they play well.

    Go Oilers!

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  16. 91 was starting to skate with the puck like he can again last game and drew 2 penalties.

    This comment is dead on. Mentioned the same to a buddy last night. We have seen so little of this so far this year. I remember a couple in the first week of the season, that's it. I wonder what's been goin on in that boy's head.

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  17. We’ve always read stories over the years about Hemsky’s talent and it is undeniable, but that’s all we hear about. For me, the stories we haven’t read about Hemsky over the years are more telling.

    We haven’t read about Hemsky working like a beast in his off ice/off season training.

    We haven’t read about Hemsky being one of the hardest working guys in practice.

    We haven’t read about Hemsky ‘hating to lose.’

    We haven’t read about Hemsky providing leadership and being a role model for the young guys.

    For me, Hemsky is a player who is comfortable with his talent and maybe that’s enough for him, but it’s not enough for this team.

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  18. As you know LT, there seems to be too many dinosaurs in hockey, particularly at the scouting and evaluation level. Hockey Canada has some great stuff, but many junior leagues scoff at it often dismissing that it was created by brainiacs who never played the game.

    I've taken it upon myself to keep tabs on Marincin seeing he's here in my backyard and I have all the inside info at my disposal. Like to go see the Winter Hawks game next wednesday.

    As I am new to this new way of scouting and evaluating, what is one thing you would want me to watch and if there is a system, which one should I use to collate data?

    I'm close to finishing my masters degree and want to get back into coaching and scouting again, so I'd like to come back to it with new skills and a new way of thinking (which I have since reading this blog).

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  19. I am as high on RNH as anyone.

    But even I want to point out that his counting numbers are inflated by his high percentage of zone starts, his PP time, and hiso verly high SH%. (He's had some lucky goals.)

    That's not to say he isn't Jesus times 5. But I wouldn't expect him to finish the season with his current points per game unless he keeps being protected and getting quite a lot of luck.

    IMO.

    The Calder looks pretty winnable, though, regardless of whether he falls off a bit.

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  20. Hopkins has been amazing. I don't think anyone could have predicted how well he has started. He may not have any reasonable comparables because the player he mosts resembles was an incomparable player.

    As for Hemsky, he is a superbly talented player, who through stubborness or very bad luck had his body give up on him before he could accomplish anything significant.

    How the Oilers are handling his contract situation is hard to get a handle on, seems really risky. I hope they get him scoring so they have some options.

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  21. Kris' comment also dead on.

    But the one ave about Couturier being Philly's shutdown C is wrong. He plays 8-9 mins at EVs per night with dregs against dregs. Gets lots of PK time (maybe thats what the poster meant), spelling the offensive stars for the Fly.

    Larsson is the opposite. Top mins at EVs and PP, almost none on PK. Favorable starts playing mid to goods with the best available and good starts. Pretty close to RNH although I'd bet there are more vets involved when he's on the ice.

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  22. "Semenko and Troy" - Hemsky was a monster in the 2006 playoff run. He tends to produce when it matters, with the often-mentioned caveat of *when he's healthy*.

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  23. Tencers present lineup...

    Smyth-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
    Gagner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Paajarvi-Belanger-Jones
    Hordichuk-O'Marra-Petrell

    Smid-Gilbert
    Whitney-Petry
    Peckham-Sutton

    Dubnyk
    Khabibulin

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  24. LT are you thinking of rethinking your projection stats for Rookies? They don't seem entirely reliable. You could just arguably pick every player to get between 30-40 points and then watch most of either fall short. (Seguin) or blow it out of the water (RNH)

    I was always on the RNH for first overall express. I had no doubts about his ability to play as the kid is brilliant, but I am surprised that he has handled the size and strength issues the NHL would present to quickly and decisively.

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  25. We can, as a group, agree on one thing: The Nuge was undersold by the scouting people. Either they really didn't see this or they didn't believe what they saw.

    LT: Did you consider the possibility that maybe you didn't believe what you read?

    I don't know how you can say he was undersold when all of the "scouting people" that come up with the rankings all converged with RNH at #1 OV. It's not like he's a Datsyuk that slipped through the net.

    It's starting to look like they got it right, and that's with due respect to Landeskog, Larsson, Courturier and the others. I hope I have already read for the last time about 2011 being a weak draft year.

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  26. Couturier, dammit. Don't know why that third r keeps trying to sneak in there.

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  28. I don't know how you can say he was undersold when all of the "scouting people" that come up with the rankings all converged with RNH at #1 OV. It's not like he's a Datsyuk that slipped through the net.

    Who was the last 18 year old to be top five in scoring? That's what undersold means, I assume.

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  29. What is RNH asking Smyth in the photo? And what is Smyth answering?

    "What's it like to drive a stick shift?"

    "What do you mean you're not on Facebook?"

    "How did you choose between a Ferrari and a Lamborghini? Or did you just settle for a Porshe?"

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  30. I was definitely in the camp of people who, at best, weren't sure that RNH should be the 1st overall pick.

    That group's main argument was how too much of his point total was assists, etc. Plus, Sean Couturier... the big 2 way centerman we all hope for!

    And I think that for the vast majority of us who were "scouting by boxcars" and didn't have the luxury to see him play a lot live, we're the ones that are the most pleasantly surprised.

    The guys who spent time watching him play were obviously sold (Hitchcock's "Datsyuk" comments, for example). I imagine even they are surprised at how quickly he's had success, though.

    I regret not going to see him play in the WHL. And, I'll admit I wish he'd been sent back to Red Deer, because I've got tickets to all the WJC medal round games in Calgary, and would've loved to watch him work some magic for Canada.

    cytersu - not as cool as "Book 'em, Dano"

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  31. By chance I ran into a pro scout this past summer who works for an NHL team, and what he told me about RNH was spot on. I asked how good of pro he could project to be, and the scout said superstar. I then asked if he could be better than Taylor Hall, which he replied "oh yeah." Scout then went on to say that even though many think that RNH would/should not play this year in the show, he will play and do a lot better than people expect.

    I know we ridicule and deride NHL management often on this blog, and rightfully so, but I feel like this is an instance where they were in the right on this one.

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  32. kris:

    I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe a large reason for why the Sedin's have been ripping it in the NHL the past few years is due to advantageous zone starts and lots of PP time, or am I wrong?

    If the above is is true, what is wrong with RNH getting the same treatment this year? I understand that yes, he has been sheltered, but so are other good players. He is doing what is expected of him, producing points, while shorting it on the defensive responsibility end. Not perfect, but much more than others can say at this point in time.

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  33. @MC79: The primary job of the "scouting people" is to project who will be the best player(s), not necessarily when that will occur.

    Unless you're talking about "scouting people" like McKeen's who left RNH off their list of top 30 Calder candidates on the badly-mistaken assumption that he would be sent back to junior. Their product is much more time-dependent, and they got it wrong.

    Other than annual publications like that, I don't recall reading (and maybe it's out there) projections of this-year scoring from "scouting people". So it wasn't so much undersold as unsold.

    My own take is very similar to Smarmy Boss. I never had a moment's doubt about the talent, but am pleasantly surprised but how quickly RNH has been able to impose his game on the NHL model. I would imagine even his biggest boosters in the scouting ranks would say something similar.

    And by "imposing his game", let me clarify that I mean at moments, not (yet) for entire games. But there are moments in every game.

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  34. kris:

    Nevermind, your post is actually damn close to how I feel. Forget my questioning.

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  35. LT said:

    In the thread below there was some gentle chiding for one of the C&B folks re:RNH but the truth is that pretty much everyone was wrong about him and parsing "how" wrong begins in miles as opposed to inches.

    I can't find the chiding but I had a bit of a run-in with a certain C&B writer RE: RNH during the pre-season.

    This post was made after RNH's fourth pre-season appearance (two at the rookie tournament, Chi then Van):

    "Usually I agree with 90% of what you say Derek, but I think you’re off on Nugent-Hopkins.

    There are a number of elements in his game that suggest he should be in the NHL this season. About a month ago I was talking with an Oiler friend and I was commenting how RNH is a lock to make the squad. Not on merit of course, but rather because there is just about no chance this management team would choose function over flair.

    Since then I’ve watched him pretty closely and I can say with confidence that he’s better off in the NHL than back in Junior. There are elements to his game that are not only NHL ready, but well above average.

    Positive::
    - Good in traffic
    - Great vision
    - Surprisingly good with his stick in the neutral zone
    - Moves the puck well

    Neutral:
    - His skating, not great but it won’t hold him back
    - Own zone presence – this one surprised me the most, he can win battles despite his size
    - General decision making (eg: when to dump and chase and get off)

    Bad:
    - Faceoffs
    - Down low – offensive zone
    - Size
    - Hard on the puck"

    The reply was to both Derek and C&B poster DarrenV. The latter disagreed with my assessment and this was Derek's response:

    DarrenV is seeking truth through evidence.

    You are seeking influence


    Since that exchange, Derek has remained very bearish on RNH in various Game Day Threads. I've asked him a number of times to defend his position, but am still waiting for a definitive post. He has touched on the fact that Renney is putting RNH in a position to succeed, however, the level in which he is succeeding is still impressive.

    To me he is displaying a certain hypocrisy by maintaining a position he cannot defend with evidence. Especially considering he often chastises others for maintaining indefensible positions.

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  36. I think "imposing his game" is fine to use in this context Bruce. I watch Naslund plays for years when I went to school in Vancouver, and he had many a "great 3 shifts, okay rest of the way" game, yet managed a great stat line.

    Like most sports, hockey is based upon some form of results that are continually tracked. Hard to deny then that on paper Naslund did not deliver results. As such, even with his effectiveness coming in short bursts, he had "imposed his game."

    Maybe RNH is not doing everything right for every minute he is accounted for on the ice, but the results are there. As such, he is "imposing his game."

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  37. Kinger:

    You have stated what I wanted to say all along. Yes, RNH is being put in favorable positions to succeed.

    However, he is succeeding when others in his position would be unable to, and that is a something to be commended.

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  38. Who was the last 18 year old to be top five in scoring? That's what undersold means, I assume.

    Assuming you think it'll sustain, of course. It probably won't, but it's not like he's gonna fall off a cliff and finish with Gagner sort of numbers.

    But to answer the question...take a wild guess. He's the only one to start the season at 18 and finish in the top five of points. (And one of only two to even finish top-ten, the other also being self-evident.)

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  39. Bruce: Where is the scouting report that suggests:

    1. RNH could make the team
    2. Impact an NHL PP like he has
    3. Impacted the NHL at 18 even with luck, shooting percentage etc considered.

    They/we all missed it. The RNH scouting reports were decidedly mild for a #1. Can anyone argue that?

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  40. Have no doubt RNH wins Calder barring injury. Think his numbers will come down because teams will scout how to stop him on EV and, more particularly, onPP. He is just so creative with puck that 70 pts seems very very doable.

    Most encouraging thing is projecting what he will be able to do at age 22-23-24

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  41. delooper: so have the past few games not really mattered or is he not healthy. I think when can assume he isn't near 100% so I will go with that as his current excuse for underwhelming. Certainly games such as that Col nightmare would have to qualify as important given the Oil can't get near the playoffs without winning them (tonight's game as well)


    I think we are looking at Hemsky playing 'hurt' for the remainder of the year so I guess his recent performance is what we should expect ? And if so - what is he worth? Not Much I would suggest.


    As always with Hemsky it is still just 'potential' high end performance and probable mediocre performance.

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  42. By the way, apparently Brian Burke was planning on fighting Kevin Lowe in a barn.

    Link

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  43. I'm with LT on this one Bruce. The consensus wasn't even there till his late winter goal-scoring streak and there were a lot of experts thinking he was going to get sent down due to size and youthfulness. He was definitely soft-played and did not have the pedigree/hype behind his #1 overall that Nash, Crosby, Ovechkin, Tavares and Stamkos all had.

    Maybe that's a function of a stronger draft year (which it was, and Woodlief at least has said so too), but I doubt it.

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  44. I was just about to post that Schitzo. Thanks for saving me the trouble.

    Also, I'd have put money on Burke. Never bet against an irishman with a grudge.

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  45. Burke would have to hope to keep the fight in the centre of the ring. Nobody went into a corner with Vish and came out unscarred.

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  46. Oil City Madman wins second rookie of the month in a row. According to Gregor, only one other player in past 20 years has done that at the start of their NHL career: Gino Malkin.

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  47. Nobody went into a corner with Vish and came out unscarred.

    If Burke didn't insist on a no-sticks provision, he'd be stupider than I thought.

    Doest: A truly superlative Premier of Manitoba.

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  48. Uh-Oh LT...Maybe you've pissed off one of the bad Ryans... :-P

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  49. So the scouts picked the best player in the draft, and now we're going to criticize them because they didn't tell us how much better he was than the rest?

    This is opposes to the "stats" men who had nuge ranked anywhere from 2to 5.
    We should call out the "math" and ask why she led us so astray.

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  50. I heard that LT and Bruce are going to fight in a Barn out by Villeneuve.

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  51. Couldn't Huselius stay injured just a little bit longer? He's almost as bad as PM Bouchard!

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  52. @Semeko and Troy

    My impression of those particular media tropes about hard work and determination is that they are used for players who are: a) Canadian; and/or, b) aren't scoring or aren't that good.

    Hemsky wears an 'A' on a team with lots of vets who have worn them before (Smyth, Belanger, Whitney, Gilbert) and guys who have had dozens of column inches devoted to stories of their heroic efforts in practice and training and their distaste for losing (Ryan Jones, Brule, Lander, Eager, Peckam, Petry, Smid). So clearly the team thinks he's a reasonable leader.

    He's just the player type that gets slammed for this kind of stuff constantly. He doesn't work vertically on the ice surface and avoids contact, so he gets labeled as a soft or pure skill player. I thought that was put to bed a long time ago on this very blog when LT convinced readers that he goes to tough areas and is very capable in both ends.

    He's not very fast, he doesn't shoot a lot, and he doesn't throw hits. We all need to get over it. They give everyone a stick for a reason, and he's learned to use his to great effect.

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  53. LT: If it turns out RNH becomes a generational talent, then I will agree that he was undersold. So if that happens I will return on bended knee to beg your forgiveness. Happily. :)

    I will certainly agree he didn't have Orr/Lafleur/Gretzky/Lemieux/Crosby hype as a 16-year-old.

    He was sold as the best player of his draft class, and it took most of the year for him/them to establish that. The truly surprising thing is the "how quickly" part and I stand by my statement that that's a secondary consideration of the scout's job.

    Draft prediction: The No.1 overall pick to Edmonton with a bullet. Elite skill set and hockey sense- can make any play on the 200 x 85 and often makes opponents look silly in the process. There isn't a whole lot to say about this kid that hasn't been said already- he's the top player in this draft with the highest offensive ceiling and is a perfect fit for the Edmonton Oilers, who are in the catbird's seat. - Kirk Luedeke

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  55. I was of the opinion that Larrson would have the best career, but that he wasn't the best draft pick, given the slower development track which LT always mentions. I thought Landeskog was a safe pick. Never completely sold on Couturier. RNH was a wildcard in my mind. I had no idea where to place him. I figured with him being in Red Deer and the number of viewings available that better judgement would ultimately prevail. When we picked him first I felt he must actually be pretty good, a bit riskier than Landeskog, but with substantially more upside in pure skill. We still need a playoff series to determine who you would rather have in a knife fight. Landeskog could be a beast in the second season.

    I mentioned this once before, opining that RNH should have been rated a 9.5 D+ rather than an 8.5 C on Traditional Realistic Potential Rating. After twenty games, he's tracking as a 9.5 C+. By the end of the season, he could be a 9.5 B-. Wow. To track on 9.5 A, he needs two all-star appearances over the next three seasons. His upside was undersold by a full letter grade all around, with one or two voices of truth from the lunatic fringe we're wisely conditioned to ignore.

    Wish I could find that article from Sports Illustrated about Griffey perhaps written toward the end of his rookie season. Ken Griffey Jr. showed us how baseball should be played echoes the sentiment:

    the blissful 19-year-old kid who wouldn't know if that day's opposing starter was left-handed or right-handed

    The anecdote I recall (which I believe I've mentioned once before) was that some Crash Davis character tried to take the blissful rookie under his arm by informing him that the opposing pitcher was (hushed voice) Nolan Ryan, and Griffey shot back "Who? I don't care if he's the bestest good Ryan who ever lived. Shut up already. Look, he's got to throw me something I can hit".

    If RNH's shooting percentage regresses, it won't necessarily reduce his scoring pace. Just as likely it comes by adding another shot per game as he becomes more wiley (scary thought) at a 10% shooting percentage with the other Ryan poised to cap the bobble. Any player over twenty percent is encouraged to shoot more often.

    From Stolen base percentage

    Numerous statistical studies done by Total Baseball have shown that the break even success rate for steals (the rate at which an attempt to steal is neither helping nor hurting the team in terms of total runs scored) is about 67%. Each successful steal adds approximately .3 runs to a team's total runs scored which is much less than often believed.

    I bet it translates into wins more effectively than runs. In hockey, twenty percent shooting means steal more often.

    (enters ellipsis gate sooner than expected)

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  56. Forgot Lindros on the 16-year-old can't-miss list. Orr was actually tabbed for future greatness as a 14-year-old, Gretzky as young as his 10-11-year-old season.

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  58. Alice: "Jordan Ryan Eberle. Somebody call his mom, get it done"

    How about an all-Ryan team? A little short on goaltenders unless Rinne is close enough:

    Forward: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan O'Reilly, Ryan Kesler, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Strome, Ryan Smith, Ryane Clowe, Ryan Malone,Ryan Jones, Ryan Callahan, Bobby Ryan, Ryan Reaves, Ryan Shannon

    Defence: Ryan Suter, Ryan Whitney, Ryan McDonagh, Ryan Wilson, Ryan O'Byrne, Ryan Murphy, Ryan Ellis

    Goal: Ryan Miller, Pekka Rinne

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  59. We should call out the "math" and ask why she led us so astray.

    Insufficient data. The smarter math fans, including LT, were attaching that caveat at the time.

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  60. The stat that I am watching with the most interest is one from 1980–81:

    75g 32-43-75

    If Nuge can get close, or even beat Jari's rookie year totals, that would be amazing.

    Enjoy the ride. This is something that doesn't happen very often.

    GDP - 6-2 Oil. Magnus with 2 points.

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  61. I would like to see an all Ryan team composed of individuals that ST could actually trade for right now with what the Oilers have in hand.

    Could we get the all-Ryan team listed above for our current stock of assets (I have to think Eberle and Hall would go a long way to doing so).

    boron: a boring moron?

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  62. (exits with a slight speed wobble)

    Last night I listened to Let's Take the 'Con' Out of Econometrics.

    Leamer has a fabulous gravelly deep voice and personality to match. They start prattling about an economist named Jennifer Brown who did the study suggesting that merely competing against Tiger (in his Accenture endorsement prime) harmed the other golfer's scores by 8/10ths of a stroke. Roberts goes off into the weeds, but Leamer offers more appropriate insight:

    If I thought I was a competitor with Tiger Woods and I saw him making some of the impossible shots, I could easily be lulled into thinking I could make those same shots and giving it a try, harming my score as a consequence--that would be one mechanism. Not making less effort, but trying things I can't do. Might take more chances; might decide to play for third, which does pay a lot, so might get more cautious.

    Competitive dynamics are driven by the concept that the winning margin is one stroke or one run or one goal more than the other guy. Roberts thinks 8/10ths of a stroke is small potatoes. At that level? Barkers.

    They also mention Agassi's book Open where he talks about Sampras got inside his head. The blurb at Amazon has this to say:

    Never before has the inner game of tennis and the outer game of fame been so precisely limned.

    Limned? Good god. I thought since McEnroe they had a machine for that.

    Never before ... [Barton Fink identity crisis] ... precisely limned.

    How to make "never before" sound cagier than Nolan Ryan and not so fresh faced as Griffey Jr in his rookie season. Jeebus how sports-hating humanities graduates get paid to write like that, for crying out loud.

    But I'll read the book soon anyway.

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  63. "I would like to see an all Ryan team composed of individuals that ST could actually trade for right now"

    Better to just nip down to Alberta Registries and expedite the paperwork for Ryan Gagner, Ryan Pajaarvi, and Ryan Lander

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  64. Steve Smith: when you watch a player live, don't you get access to every piece of data?

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  65. Steve Smith: when you watch a player live, don't you get access to every piece of data?

    Yes. How silly of us not to watch all of RNH's junior games, stopwatch in hand.

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  66. Steve Smith: Isn't that exactly what scouts do?
    And if we don't have the data that they have, maybe its reasonable to assume they might know more about players than us.

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  67. Is Derek the guy from copper and blue that said Gagner = Bobby Clarke?

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  68. Steve Smith: Isn't that exactly what scouts do?

    Well, I don't know if they carefully track time on ice. I would hope they do; my hunch is that many don't, but that's just a blind guess.

    And if we don't have the data that they have, maybe its reasonable to assume they might know more about players than us.

    Absolutely. I hereby call on guys like LT to stop disregarding scouts' opinions. In fact, whenever he writes a post about a prospect, I think he should henceforth include quotations about that prospect from at least three different scouting services.

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  69. Steve Smith: Isn't that exactly what scouts do?
    And if we don't have the data that they have, maybe its reasonable to assume they might know more about players than us.


    Yeah "Steve",
    Thats why scouts are never wrong

    minbec - an independant baseball league.

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  70. I'm just sitting here wondering
    Are the Junior High Schools closed this afternoon?

    pleaba - well, we know where that leads

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  71. I don't actually have a problem with it being pointed out that others have better information than we do, and that we should bear that in mind (I do have a problem with strawmen of the sort that Kamus is using - find me a math guy who doesn't respect scouts' opinions, and I'll show you a math guy who doesn't appreciate the proper use of math).

    The problem is when total deference is suggested (i.e. going from "scouts have information that we do not" to "we shouldn't question scouts' opinions"), because the logical extension of that argument is that we shouldn't debate anything at all. Should Tambellini have made that trade? Well, that's not for us to say, because he had access to information that we didn't (about the player's attitude, interest in re-signing, etc.). Should Renney have had that guy on the ice in the dying minutes? That's not for us to say, because Renney knew how different players were feeling injury-wise.

    And if that's what you believe, that's fine, but I sort of question why you're here. Actually, I question why you're a fan at all.

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  72. PPV Lowe-Burke in a barn. I would rather watch that than UFC. Paulina Gretzky ring card girl. Make this happen!

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  73. I'm just sitting here wondering
    Are the Junior High Schools closed this afternoon?


    Mine is (parent teacher interviews)

    I will ask the 8's if they are increasing their comments on this site and the handles they use. Then threaten theme with suspension if their views offend me. (ie. pro-Jones, anti-Seguin, giving thumbs up to DSF, etc)

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  74. Steve Smith: I never stated that what scouts say is gospel, just wanted to point out that they get a lot of unfair criticism in my mind.
    I'm also sorry that I don't fit your definition of a fan, I'll stop posting now.

    Mr Debakey: I don't understand, is that why you're home?

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  75. How much does CBJ coaches trust Mason?

    Sanford played last night.

    Sanford is playing tonight.

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  76. Yes, CBJ has been playing better.

    Yes, 4 is still missing.

    But if the Oilers can't beat this team in regulation and soundly outchance them in the process then hold on because the freefall will be swift.

    They're already in a big slump but a loss like this could finish them.

    I see Renney is still playing 91-20-28 together? Why is he doing that? It makes zero sense.

    Not to go all Pat or DMW on you fellows - and there's a 20-89-91 point to this story - but the Xmas I was 12 years old my parents absolutely nailed it when it came to gift-giving.

    As you got older there was less and less you wanted toy-wise and then you moved into wanting clothing or money to buy your own clothing and at the age of 12 you're sorta inbetween; or at least that was the case back in my day.

    So, dec of '87 my parents gave me a little TV for my bedroom, a walkman ( not a discman) and a combination BB/pellet gun. So, I was always a big TV guy so that gift alone was awesome alone; being able to watch what-I-and -when-I wanted was absolute gold. We had gotten 'cable' that previous summer - 13 channels!!- so now me and dad no longer had to clash:)

    The TV was always on in the background while I was reading.

    I always loved music as well so being able to listen to my own music as loud as I wanted while reading? Most outstanding, sir.

    Along the way the gun got lost in the mix but soon enough I discovered it and because I had been so enamored with the first two gifts, I had forgotten how much fun this gift was as well. When I tired a little of the first two, I could take the gun out for a bit of mischief.

    The current 93 line plus 10 and - to a lesser extent 83 - are the TV and walkman in this instance. They've been the go to gifts and have been carrying the load. All 20-89-91 have to do is be the pellet gun and chip in when you take a break from the other two gifts.

    But so far they've been pretty much useless. 20 has won draws and helped right the PK ship but we're the best part of a third into the season and he can't piss a drop. 91 isn't killing penalties and isn't doing anything. 89 has 309 GP on his resume and is giving us nothing.

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  78. @SS

    Agree wholeheartedly. However, I think in the case of RNH, some people with (stat based) opinions were so confident in their position that they basically kept their eyes closed and ears shut. Moreover, even as the kid was clearly succeeding, they kept this untenable position without providing supporting evidence. These are the same kind of people that chastise others for not supporting their opinions with fact.

    Thus, hypocrisy.

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  79. Absolutely. I hereby call on guys like LT to stop disregarding scouts' opinions. In fact, whenever he writes a post about a prospect, I think he should henceforth include quotations about that prospect from at least three different scouting services.

    I second this! Get with the program, LT!

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  80. Giordano out indefinitely, ruptured tendons; not good news for the Flamers. They might be headed for Yakupov country, which really isn't good news for us.

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  81. Dennis, I got a little 15 inch B&W back in '86, and I used some wiring to connect on our main TV all the way through the house (older big house) to my room, through doors, vents, holes etc. and voila, first one of my friends to have freakin cable TV in his own room, clashes ended with my dad as well (watch your Tommy Hunter old man and I'll watch me some Expos, hockey, TSN, ....lol). What was sweeter is I bought a "converter" and I had a remote control!! No 91-20-89 point to this, just the TV thing brought me back.

    Renney in the pre-game trying to answer a question about 20 on the PP. Managed to pull of an answer I guess.

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  82. Semenko and Troy and the rest of the Hemsky haters,

    Maybe you havent read any of those stories because the fact that you dont know how to read. Because I have actually read a quote from Hemsky himself that he "just wants to get to the playoffs, anything can happen". and "he would trade any 80-90 point season to make the playoffs". Sounds like a team guy and someone who just wants to win. He is not a bodybuilder, hes a playmaker, he doesnt need to workout like a beast in off season. Even though during his shoulder injury said he lost 10 pounds because he was working so much. Make solid points before posting. Or maybe be like the other idiots and post ridiculous trade props for him. How about Hemmer for Ovi, both "struggling" this year.

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  83. If you Google "Who was the last 18 year old NHL player to be top 10 in scoring" Wayne Gretzky's Wikipedia page is the first result. lol

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  84. We got our first television in 1969, it broke during the SC final in 1970.

    It was black and white.

    About four years later, my Dad bought this plastic screen you taped to the television face. It had three colors:

    blue at the top: for sky

    green at the bottom: for grass

    off which in the middle: I don't freaking know.

    We all sat there and raved about it. 1974. My friend Terry had a color tv, but my Mom had an Avocado fridge.

    Next time someone gets romantic about the past, club them to death.

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  85. for the Oil, RNH is almost like the second coming of Christ (sorry Mom). When they were in their moment of greatest need at that position, he appears and begins to create "miracles" at a tender age. I only hope that the story ends better for RNH than his predecessor.

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  86. Well hopefully we'll see a few wins in this next week or we could see a fall back to the second diviaion again. Have to stay with the pack here. Team is healthier but need Whitney and Hemsky to get to where they can be. Neither is right yet.

    As for Ted nobody saw him being where he is right now. Top five in NHL scoring. Seriously. Buddy is 18. And sure he's sheltered but really who gives a shit. Crosby was as well. Kid is making hay with what he is getting, he is making a PP which has been awful forever finally hum and while there are holes (because he is 18 ffs) he is a hard worker and has great hockey sense so we know it will come.

    imo the most important things for Renney over the next little bit is to get Paajarvi, Gagner, Peckham and Dubnyk untracked. Gagner may end up being tradebait but his value is going to be negative if this keeps up. He needs to go back to C. Paajarvi should be getting top six minutes.

    And Peckham, well he may be a lost cause but they need to get him going. Not sure if he had fitness issues this fall but man he is not playing as well as he can.

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  87. Gus
    Does that make Dean Lombardi Pontius Pilate?

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  88. lol LT its like a buddy of mine says. 'Oh yeah the old days were great. No teeth by 30, dead by 50 Great times.'

    ha

    Roper - Mrs. was one sexy Mama

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  89. If you Google "Who was the last 18 year old NHL player to be top 10 in scoring" Wayne Gretzky's Wikipedia page is the first result. lol

    Except that's not quite true. He's the last (and only) 18yo to finish in the top five in NHL scoring, tying Marcel Dionne for the top spot in 1980. The only other 18yo to finish top-ten was Strong Muscular Thighs, who was 6th with 102 points in 2006, one back of the top five and four back of Ovechkin in third.

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  90. Kinger: Sure. Stats guys, as a whole, suffer from the same human frailties as everyone else, and one of those is a vulnerability to dogma. My interest isn't in defending stats guys as individuals so much as in defending stats (though the aforementioned frailties mean that I'm probably a little more lenient in viewing the shortcomings of those I consider my brothers-in-arms).

    (I almost wrote "comrades-in-arms", but then I remembered that our host is something of a Dire Straits fan, and as long as I'm going to be a huge dick in his blog's comments section, I figure the least I can do is make classic rock allusions that he might appreciate.)

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  91. Gerta Rauss, We are not that far in the story yet. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. (the pot said to the kettle)

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  92. I used to think the RNH was a Communist, but now I know that he is a good ol'boy.

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  93. There are 1400 candidates for doubting Thomas.

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  94. Next time someone gets romantic about the past, club them to death.


    I bet that if we were transported back to 1970, we would be stunned by all kinds of little things - prejudiced language, terrible hygiene, horribly stinky car exhaust, etc... We would be stunned.

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  95. LT: Their numbers are only exceeded by those who would be Mary Magdalene. (sorry again Mom)

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  96. TBS used to play re-runs off "All in the Family" @ 6:00am a couple of years ago and I listen/watch while I was getting ready for work. One of the few shows that had me actually laughing out loud. There isn't a chance in hell of a show like that being put on the air now. Political correctness has killed any chance at social commentary.

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  97. Oh yeah. Litter. "Children speak when spoken to" and a minimum wage that could barely keep your heart beating. Everything was closed Mondays, two tv channels (or one).

    In canada, lots of big cities didn't have a rock fm station so Zep was represented by the Immagrant Song but not their album tracks.

    8-tracks. People at work asking if they could borrow $20 until payday, flat tires, weird bordering on inedible food.

    Great times alright.

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  98. LT,

    I thought the "blue top, pinkish middle, green bottom" post-fit screens only existed on Happy Days re-runs.

    Knowing Happy Days reruns makes me older than most.

    Did Hemsky's ruined shoulder ruin his wrist shot?

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  99. I've never denied that Hemsky has talent and yes it was evident back in 2006...0.91 ppg player... and all that.

    However, the kids have shown that talent flourishes even more with desire and compete.

    I'm not asking for Hemsky to break a stick over an unmotivated teammate's shinpads between periods.

    He could be a great second line complement to the kids.

    But for whatever reason, it doesn't appear right now that he wants to be that player.

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  100. We know that if healthy Hemmer is a .9/ppg player or better. He has a new winger and he's coming off an injury.

    So, if healthy, he'll return to form. We just don't know enough about his health situation.

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  101. MIN is up on NJD 3-1

    Shots are 5-4 NJD

    MIN is playing so far on the right end of the bell curve its ridiculous.

    Yes, Brodeur is in net.

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  102. LT,

    After listening to Feaster, I just gotta know ... are you blogging from the basement in your underwear ?

    ~sarcasm~

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  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  104. Apparently Ryan Jones's Mom posts on the blog.

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  105. Wait, I get it. You're inferring that they are gay.

    LT only has love for one man, and his name is MA Pouliot. "Where for art thou Pouliot?"

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  106. Somewhere the underside of a bridge is suddenly vacant.

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. Sportsnet really driving the nail in the Flames coffin.

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  109. Somewhere the underside of a bridge is suddenly vacant

    Based on the user profile I'd say we should be afraid its going to fall down

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  110. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  111. Uh, CBJ might want to stop that pass on future PP's.

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  112. Uh, blink, PP, 1-0...? I could get used to watching the RNH-Eberle combo for years.

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  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  114. The Boss from The Nuge.

    LOL@LT is my joke account btw

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  115. So you were just pretending to waste everyone's time?

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  116. Shhh, hockey.

    Shhh.

    Imedis - I in the middle

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  117. Not sure why I said that. I'm not actually that guy.

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  118. This thread has gone bad.
    Its time for!:

    http://youtu.be/Ulh_oESf5nc

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  119. Really?

    Let's just all agree you're great and avoid having the thread shut down.

    Look, a hockey game

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  120. what we need is a line with Smyth, O'Marra and Jones

    all Ryans, all Irish, all Flow, all the time.

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  121. Once again.

    You're great. You win.

    Hockey now.

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  122. LOL: Really? You're welcome to post here but a lot of your work is about to disappear.

    I don't care about your nick and have at it but man there's a ton that's beyone the pale here.

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  123. The Bouchlette was coined after one Leroy Bouchlette.

    Thank you Leroy!

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  124. MPS is slowing rounding into form. Nice to see.

    He needs to learn how to own the wall. He has more tools than Smyth, he just has to start playing like him. Shield the puck with your body. Spin and cycle. etc., etc.

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  125. A lot of missed assignments, the last 3 shifts.

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  126. Hemmer has had 3 neutral zone turnovers halfway through the first.

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  127. Hey LOL,

    If you want to talk about hockey, feel free to add your thoughts. If you are looking for attention, please go elsewhere.

    We like to talk about the Oilers, classic music, chuckle at fans of the opposition, wade into advanced stats and offer insight into the game.

    Thanks.

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  128. Not sure who mentioned that Oiler killer Huselius, but damn ... he's forcing the issue already this period.

    It's bad enough we had to watch Brodziak ruin the Wild party last game. Not sure if I want to see Huselius bury them tonight.

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  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  130. tryed that from start and someone got personal. Will do my best to stay on topic of hockey as long as the protector can.

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  131. Of all the guys to hold.... Dorsett.

    Oilers look a stride slow and 1/2 step behind CBJ to almost every puck.

    Oilers look to have a little FPS (fancy play syndrome) in the ozone as well.

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  132. Woodguy,

    Bring back OTC to cure that fancy pants shit ... LOL

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  133. Dude

    You started off personal. I wouldn't have gotten involved otherwise. Keep it civil and you will do just fine here.

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  134. So when do we get to see the "Hemsky Sportscar".

    Cuz all I'm seeing is the block heater cord.

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  135. i said nothing personal to you. I insulted lt who insulted jones. plain and simple. dont comment towards me or quote me etc and I'll do fine

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  136. Man the Oilers hate wins. Just hate them. Can't stand the things.

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  137. SpOILer- if nothing else, LOL demonstrated that you and I can be in 100% agreement at times!

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  138. So Wiz doesn't get 2 for his squawking and delay of game, the Hordichuk gets one? Weak.

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  139. Man, this is what happens when I do my job instead of repeatedly refreshing game-day threads - I miss all the fun.

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  140. Well, that goal is on stupid. Stupid stupid stupid.

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  141. LOL if you had followed that very rule yourself, you couldn't have posted your own ad hominem in the first place.

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  142. That was a matter of time. Getting their show ran again at home.

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  143. That was a matter of time. Getting their show ran again at home.

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  144. That early goal may have been a bad thing because we are taking them way too lightly.

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  145. I'm glad Dorsett has been punished and deterred for the whole Hall thing, too.

    Toughness.

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  146. Bookie

    I meant to say this a week ago, but wasn't in the thread (pretty sure it was a bar I was in)--the detachable penis joke nearly made me hit the floor. I stumbled and I wasn't even walking.

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  147. If I'm Tom Renney, these are the periods that will make my 10 year tenure as Oilers coach end after two.

    Whatever else the Edmonton Oilers are, they're not smart.

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  148. Renney had quite the reaction with that too many men. Poor ol OMarra looked at him blankly thinking FML.

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  149. Two guys who really aren't doing squat take the penalties.

    Do yourself a favour boys and stay out of the box.

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  150. Lt - shouldn't have been a penalty if Wiz's whining and crying wasn't a penalty. Typical inconsistent reffing BS.

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  151. LMHF: Sure, but why bother doing that in the first place? Don't put yourself in a position to take a penalty that can hurt the team.

    Because right now they're laughing.

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  152. And it wasn't like the Oilers were doing much before the penalties. Shots 21-7 after the first.

    21 ... that's a hell of a lot of standing around by the Oilers.

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  153. the detachable penis joke nearly made me hit the floor.

    I hope you know about the song, otherwise that might make me seem pretty weird...

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  154. LT - when you feel disgusted about the Oilers - just remember this:

    The Oilers have an 18 year old who is tied for fourth in the NHL scoring lead

    Feel better now?

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  155. the Oilers look to be in serious trouble.

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  156. the problem is we're playing a weak team not known for a special transition game. We shouldn't still be playing our third forward high on offense. It's making it to easy for cbus to get out if we dont have immediate and strong pressure from f1. Hopfully Renney adapts next 20

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  157. LT said:

    "If I'm Tom Renney, these are the periods that will make my 10 year tenure as Oilers coach end after two.

    Whatever else the Edmonton Oilers are, they're not smart."

    Exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself. Renney is the one who keeps putting the Eagers/Hordichuck's of the world out there over the landers/omarks, and he ultimately has to be responsible for the idiot penalties 4th line goons will take.

    But I'm so glad to see Hordichuck did such a good job "firing" up his team. Gifting the opposition 1 goal is a great way to get the morale going. And I'm sure CBJ is really going to think twice about running Hall now- knowing that there's just such a deterrent out there in the "can't play for shit penalty machine" that is Hordichuck.

    Renney could be the coach behind the bench for a revival of stanley cup hockey in EDM. He's been gifted with 3 of the best young players in the league. And he's blowing it, game in and game out, through questionable lineup and line decisions.

    Honestly, smarter hockey is what's needed from these oilers. They are tripping all over themselves here.

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  158. Horichuck's penalty was dumb, but they didn't get a sniff until O'Marra put them two down.

    Should be enough vitrol for the 2nd penalty as well.

    Oilers just going through the motions after 14's goal.

    Like they expect to score every time they touch the puck so backchecking, forechecking, supporting the D down low etc, gets put on the back burner.

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  159. the Oilers haven't been a smart club for a long time, though.

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  160. LT - i'm guessing Hordichuk thought he knew where the line was. I'm not a fan of the guy, but that is his job...frustrating i know. Not as frustrating as watching Mr. Sutton get dummied around.

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  161. Dennis: Well, they have a good PP and PK this season, there's a pulse.

    But they scored and acted like they'd won the damn game.

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  162. LMHF: I hear you, but if that happens 10 times a season it's a tragedy.

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  163. 83 grabbing his shoulder after the whistle. AAgain.

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  164. @LT,

    The Oilers quick goal was the equivalent of the offence scoring on the 2nd play from scrimmage via a long bomb to go up 7-0 and then be down 21-7 at half.

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  165. Lt - Agreed. I suspect he'll be PB'ed soon though. Not helping us win. Hitters need to shift momentum and he isn't.

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  166. Oilers are now down to three players who look like they might score tonight. Wow. Get well soon Taylor Hall.

    I'm going to have to squint at Dennis' scoring chances after this one.

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  167. Cogs with his 6th goal of the season tonight.

    Who knew he could keep up with Jones and have more than 83,89 and 91 combined ... :o(

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  168. I don't know why, but the commercials with Dubnyk as the noob on the worksite make me think of ITV.

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  169. Our two prized winger pending UFAs last season, are on pace for a combined 60 points this year.

    Bad time for career lows guys.

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  170. Yeah, i keep hoping for a Belanger turnaround. I mean, he is a non-horrible player in terms of offense. But it ain't happening.

    The Horcoff line is generating a bit and playing the toughest minutes.

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  171. Bad read by Nuge there on the pinch.

    ...well somone has to say something bad about him, lol.

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  172. I'm not all that impressed with Hordichuk doing a Greg Louganis all the time. Don't like it on other teams either.

    Crap

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  173. Everything Hordichuk touches tonight is turning into skittles

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  174. Dorsett says, "I can beat up your best player last year and run your show this year!"

    Nice.

    Comedy of errors tonight I expect.

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  175. Well the Oilers will have played two more games than Calgary after tomorrow night's game, and if they lose to CBJ and the Flames we can pretty much call it a tie.

    Man. What a dreadful looking hockey team.

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  176. Kris, dunno, bit all TV productions have a "show runner".

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  177. Only difference this period is the Oilers didn't cash on a PP gift. Other than that a replay on the 1st.

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  178. I'm not sure I would've predicted this summer that I would be relieved every time Sutton was on the ice. But I am.

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  179. I wonder if the Flames would trade us Bouwm. for prospects and cap relief. (Two things they could use to shorten a rebuild.) His cap hit is too high, but he'd help. Won't happen, I guess.

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  180. That was a penalty on Smid, but when a player flops like Nash did, it should be called.

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  181. Come on boys.

    Clueless is a word that comes to mind tonight.

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  182. I think coach Renney is sending a message. Either that or Hordichuk is the team's best left winger.

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  183. Can we please end the Bouwmeister trade talk please.

    He sucks, period.

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  184. Fair enough. I'll take your word on it CC.

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  185. WTF.

    I finally figured out "heavy lifting" means don't shoot the puck and miss open nets.

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