Winter 2011: #10
Summer 2011: #8
Redline report: His father, Frank, was a longtime NHL defenseman and currently a highly respected scout. David has excellent size and strength and plays a rugged brand of hockey with a bit of a mean streak. He reads developing plays well and uses anticipation to break up plays before they become dangerous. He's got good hockey sense in all three zones, but his offensive upside is limited due to his mediocre point shot.
TSN: Highly touted in the Czech Republic for several years, one of the rare players to compete in three U-18 championships. Good genes, being the son of a former NHLer and a tennis pro, and nephew of Bobby Holik. Strengths - Has good gap control and active stick. He can play a physical game given his size and strength. Has a hard shot, good character and leadership abilities. Weaknesses - Shot lacks accuracy, takes too long to shoot, feet are below average, hands aren't great, not a puck carrier, dead ends himself. Could be more consistent with his physical play.
ISS: He is not easy to get around, can play physical when required and isn’t afraid to mix it up or answer the bell when required. He has great gap control and can really lure players in and then strip them of the puck using his big reach. His skating ability has come a long way as has most of his other technical skills.
Bruins Draft Watch: With Musil, it is more about the fact that he looks like a safe defender but nowhere near the high-upside guy he looked like several years ago when he burst onto the scene in the various international tournaments as a 15-year-old. Another aspect of Musil's game we have heard troubling things about is with the intensity and desire -- some NHL evaluators have said that he is the product of hockey coming very easy to him early on and the natural physical advantage he enjoyed at a younger age. Now, his peers are catching up to him and surpassing him, and he's not consistently bringing the kind of intensity you want.
Musil is listed at 6.04 and 203 and will no doubt have the size to play at the NHL level. He is not going to be an NHL PP option (the only category that Musil is ranked is PIMs) but should be a solid EV and PK performer. I think he's likely the best candidate in the system to be the next Jason Smith-Steve Staios type defender on the Oilers: steady, can move the puck up and will score 3-5 goals for you each season.
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A note about Musil and his position in the top 20. My list is based on potential, range of skills and the players chances of playing north of 250 NHL games (I think that's a reasonable line in the sand as the lowest requirement for a prospect to turn into an NHL player).
Musil scores well as a "good bet" and I do think he has the tools to contribute to winning games. I don't think he's a "complete" defender in that the offense isn't going to reach levels where he'll be a PP option in pro hockey. Is a defenseman who can play in all three disciplines more valuable than a defenseman who can play in only two? I believe so. However, if Musil flourishes in the EV and PK roles at the NHL level he could easily be the best blueliner on this list.
Measuring that requires knowledge that I don't possess, so we go with what the numbers and history tell us. David Musil is more likely to make the NHL than some of the players ahead of him on this list, but in a role that will require 15-22 minutes a night.
Those scouting reports sound like a borderline 5-6 Dman to me. Skating issues, hands issues, shooting issues, puck-carrying issues... He sounds like a Smid who can't lug the puck.
ReplyDeleteCompared to Teubert who can skate and shoot, who went higher in the draft and is closer to a pro job, how Musil ranks ahead of him is beyond me.
This prospect, like Plante, is a project defenseman.
Apologies to Smid there. Smid was always a fine skater.
ReplyDelete" Is a defenseman who can play in all three disciplines more valuable than a defenseman who can play in only two? I believe so. " -Lowetide
ReplyDeleteIs an average player in three disciplines more valuable that an excellent player in two disciplines?
Not saying that Musil will be above-average or excellent in the defensive aspects of the game (but he might be). Placing more emphasis on all-round blueliners assumes that these players are as good in their own end as the defensive blueliners. This maybe be the case with the elite rearguards but I do not believe is true in relation to 'normal'* all-round Dman. Maybe I am crazy?
* I know all round defensemen are not normal, but lets say Whitney or Salo could be a line in the sand (or maybe they could be before all their injuries)
"He reads developing plays well and uses anticipation to break up plays before they become dangerous. He's got good hockey sense in all three zones"
ReplyDeleteThis Redline description appeals to me. It's the subtle plays/decisions many times that get D into trouble, need as much IQ on the backend as possible.
BCB: Well, as I said, if Musil flourishes in those two disciplines then he's clearly better than someone who serves as an average player in all three.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't have the means to measure it.
Watching Andy Sutton bring calm on the back end reminds me of the potential for Musil. If he brings the same reliability to his game at the NHL level then buddy will have a good career. Imo, this is what makes a valuable Dman, not necessarily the boxcars.
ReplyDeleteThis prospect, like Plante, is a project defenseman.
ReplyDeleteNot really. Musil has far more polish to his game then Plante ever did.
Musil will play at the NHL level and the hope is he's more of a good second pairing dman then a third pairing dman.
I like Adam Foote as a top end comparable.
ReplyDelete2nd round pick. Didn't make the show for 3 years post draft. Topped out at 30 points. Played in the top pair against toughest comp for 15 years.
The notion of "reading the play" always comes up with prospects on D.
ReplyDeleteI know what it means to "read traffic" on on the streets and highways, and I'm pretty quick to identify the drivers who can't or won't do this (pathetic cwontness).
Economists talk about marginal utility. If the light is already changing to red and you're going to have to press the brake pedal to avoid shooting through before it turns green again, the marginal utility of keeping your foot on the accelerator is negative, because it costs you gas and adds to brake wear, yet I see drivers do this every day. Last car to the red light is a rotten egg! Well, if you're headed to the pub to drink six pints of Coors Lite, might as well burn some money before you drown it.
Another common one is the guy who makes seven lane changes to arrive 15 seconds ahead of me after a fifteen minute trip down the highway. For all the aggression, IROC (idiot right out of college) averages a full second less following distance over the same trip, but I guess with those massive insurance premiums, time is money, and fifteen magnificent seconds of separation from an old duffer like me is the difference between owning a fancy car or being homeless in the streets.
In this town, we have many advance left turn lanes that fail to clear in a single cycle. I'll watch a driver do a Siamese tailgate for five solid minutes (every blink of the brake light of the car in front is paired with a blink from the car behind). Then this car will pull into an advance left turn lane to exit the highway, the light will change, the first car will jump off the line, then tailgater will leave a three or four second following distance that could have fit two more cars into the gap. Interesting math: you need four seconds of following distance to putter around a left turn at 25 kph (with every other direction of traffic halted on red), but 700ms of following distance was just perfect doing 130 kph in a 100 kph zone with all the other traffic weaving around you?
Probably it's the same person of sufficient girth with a penchant to turn to discuss the grocery list with spouse at the very moment the sliding doors open their maw to the retail mecca of chips and pop and microwave dinners. In this type of individual, a grocery conversation while continuing to move the feet is out of the question. If these people were thinner, obnoxious bean poles would scoot through the gaps adding an unpleasant breeze to the impromptu conversation: it would soon move. It's the former world champions of buffet-plate tower building who turn this trick with no clue of the disrupted flow stacking up behind them.
I would presume that the NHL prospects are a grade or two above what I observe in the streets and aisles, despite all the black marks on the scouting reports. But I've never figured out what precisely makes this so difficult that talented professionals struggle with the skill of reading the play for years and years. Unlike the Bubba huddle at the grocery store entrance, these guys have ass-busting coaches and game-tape reviews. Yet somehow it's not enough.
I've always wondered what could possible trigger a Bubba huddle at the worst possible pedestrian choke point. Maybe that line of cash registers inside the store resembles the line of scrimmage, and it's natural to huddle five yards back field. Or the sudden realization dawns that "oh my god the vegetables and chips are five aisles apart! We need an instant wing plan! You lay down some cut blocks in front of the cauliflower, and I'll pivot for an inside hook at the Frito display."
LT: I was just curious and I agree that we cannot measure future excellence or future averageness. So I do agree that an all-around prospect should be ranked higher than a defensive first prospect.
ReplyDeleteAs always, I enjoy the read and love this exercise of yours.
Didn't see this anywhere else - blain is not making friends in Oilerville with crap like this.
ReplyDeleteBlain suspended for racist remark
Grier, Laraque, Carter... any other visible minorities dawn the Copper & Blue?
Grier, Laraque, Carter... any other visible minorities dawn the Copper & Blue?
ReplyDeleteFreddy Brathwaite, Pokey Reddick, Sean Brown...guy you might have heard of who played goal - Grant somebody.
Nothing against Musil... I like the pick at the time, and still do. But there are question marks on his scouting report card and one of them is fundamental--skating (as it was with Plante)--and thus I think it is unfair to the poor boy to expect he will be a second pairing guy in the Bigs, at this time. I hope he continues to improve, but given the regression during his teams, I can't expect he will. I think it is very likely that he develops along the same timeline as Plante, or say Matt Greene (I do think he has better hockey sense than Greene, judging by reports).
ReplyDeleteA big tell for us will be if he makes the leap to pro next year or is sent back to Jrs one more time. If his skating is there, I think they will move him up, unless they want him to try and find some offense.
Teams should be teens.
ReplyDeleteAt least they kind of sound the same. After that, I got nuthin.
spOILer
ReplyDeleteI didn't hate the Musil pick, if you were going to select a D.
Rattie was a guy some were interested, and he doesn't look like a bad pick at this point either.
It seems I never actually did my 2011 draft review (although I started it, perhaps I'll get around to finishing and posting it over the Christmas break?), I think the guy I'd have taken, given those available at 31, would have been Khokhlachev.
@spOILer: The only way Musil can make the jump to pros is if he makes the Oilers. He was drafted out of the Dub so they don't have the option to turn him pro in the A as they did with Marincin. ("did have the option", I mean, not "did turn him pro")
ReplyDeleteI don't think Musil turning pro at 19 is likely. Possible, certainly. But likely? I'd think they would wait until he's 20 before turning him pro.
ReplyDeletespeeds: I'd love to read it.
A link to the 3rd article by the NY Times that I mentioned in an earlier post. Appears to confirm the Oilers strong interest in Boogard when he was a FA.
ReplyDeleteI am not an anti-fighting advocate (although i'm all for eliminating goons and staged fighting) but this is a very well written series and gives a sense of how tough the job is. As a father it certainly struck a chord.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/sports/hockey/derek-boogaard-a-brain-going-bad.html?_r=1&ref=sports
@spOILer: The only way Musil can make the jump to pros is if he makes the Oilers. He was drafted out of the Dub so they don't have the option to turn him pro in the A as they did with Marincin. ("did have the option", I mean, not "did turn him pro")
ReplyDeleteD turning pro at 19 has to be something like top 5th percentile, no?
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ReplyDeleteHopefully Musil plays another season in the Dub, then two full seasons in the AHL - then we may have a real NHL player, instead of another half baked NHL bust.
ReplyDeleteWhere's Barker? Last time I remember seeing him, was when the Oilers were winning.
Brandon Saad is a guy I wonder about. Was touted as a top 15 pick coming into the draft and ended up going 43rd to Chi-town.
ReplyDeleteAll the arrows pointed in the wrong direction, but lordie if the Hawks managed to snag that mythical top 6 power forward.
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ReplyDeleteI suppose the past two weeks puts the "Is Taylor Hall a bust?" arguments to death, finally.
ReplyDeleteRNH is great, but Hall is going to be the one who wins 1 more cup.
RNH is great, but Hall is going to be the one who wins 1 more cup.
ReplyDeleteOn account of his magic PDO-elevating powers?
@"Steve Smith": LOL
ReplyDeleteA small minority of the 'sphere (and Oildom in general) reside on the east coast. The two main reasons I can think of:
ReplyDelete1. No local team so kids usually gravitate towards winners. Many 30-40 year old Atlantic Canadians are Oiler fans because of this. Very few 0-25 year old fans are.
2. Oiler farm teams have spent some time living in Cape Breton and Halifax.
Life can be tough for us as the average game is a 10:30pm start. How does the conference realignment affect Oiler fans on the East Coast?
Well, my first reaction was that this was an unmitigated disaster since the only thing worse than an Oiler home game is an Oiler road swing through California with those 11:30pm starts.
Don't get me wrong, I would have been a very happy man had the Oilers managed to get into the Western Conference instead of the Pacific. Saying that, here's the apples to apples comparison:
Games in Western/Mountain Time Zone
2011- 49
2010- 52
There will be about** 3 less games in the Oilers home time zone.
Games in Pacific Time Zone
2011- 11
2010- 10
As expected there will be more but surprisingly not a great deal more. Estimated** to be one extra game in the Pacific.
Games in the Central Time Zone
2011- 8
2010- 13
Here's the beginning of the good news. These 9:30pm starts are doable but 5 less is certainly good news since some of my least favorite teams are in this conference.
Games in the Eastern Time Zone
2011- 14
2010- 8
Nothing but glorious news here. Not only can I watch a full game and get to bed on time but to me the best hockey...scratch that, the most entertaining hockey, is played in cities like Philly, Toronto and Montreal. These games are always a blast and I think an annual trek to New York or Boston or Philly might be in the plans.
All and all, I'm very excited about this change. I suppose the playoffs will be almost entirely late starts but I can fight through the pain for two weeks every decade or so.
It's pretty clear to me that when no one can guess exactly who voted against this realignment, the damn thing is pretty fair. Nice work NHL.
***I say about because we don't know the 5/6 split between the conference rivals.
They were talking to Rashaugh on Gregor today and the "known" No votes are NYR, TAM, FLO.
ReplyDeleteThe speculation was NJ is the last NO vote because Lou was so outspoken against it, but would not admit to it.
An example of Lou being a baby, I want everything my way. I don't want to give up my competitive advantage of not having to travel.
@knighttown: You expect another outcome?
ReplyDeleteSeguin was a healthy scratch tonight against the Jets.Missed a meeting in the a.m
ReplyDelete@Woodguy In this town, we have many advance left turn lanes that fail to clear in a single cycle. I'll watch a driver do a Siamese tailgate for five solid minutes (every blink of the brake light of the car in front is paired with a blink from the car behind). Then this car will pull into an advance left turn lane to exit the highway, the light will change, the first car will jump off the line, then tailgater will leave a three or four second following distance that could have fit two more cars into the gap. Interesting math: you need four seconds of following distance to putter around a left turn at 25 kph (with every other direction of traffic halted on red), but 700ms of following distance was just perfect doing 130 kph in a 100 kph zone with all the other traffic weaving around you?
ReplyDeleteHope you post alot; funny. This stuff is universal. I love the tested, certified drivers dawdling 15km below speed limit on a gentle curve follow up by blowing through the lit pedestrian crosswalk 25km too fast. They're following an internal, preposterous fitness function not aligned with reality. Rational choice theory my ass.
Metaphor for life, really.
KT: you are likely one of the few to care about this but have you noticed the Oilers have moved their homestarts back 30 min to 930pm est?
ReplyDeleteThat's a cunty move, IMO.
that's the same time it was years ago when I moved back to the city and then a few years ago they settled on 900pm.
maybe we could move this core to Que city and the Yotes org could come to edm?;)
finally, I don't like reading below average feet when going through a scouting report.
ReplyDelete