Thursday, November 3, 2011

G12 Oilers at Kings

In the early days of expansion, the city of angels pursued "name" hockey players just like New York City. Because of it, most of the early stars for the Los Angeles Kings were acquired for picks and prospects. It did not go well in the standings.


Rogie Vachon was a helluva goalie, and Marcel Dionne (above photo) was an exceptional offensive talent. The universal draft was introduced in 1969, but the Kings didn't make a first round pick until 1975. They acquired the following players for all of those first round picks:
  1. 1969: LAK dealt their first round pick in '69 (Minnesota acquired it from Montreal and used it on D Dick Redmond) and '72 (that turned into Steve Shutt) to Montreal for Goaltender Gerry Desjardins, who would turn into a journeyman goalie through the 70s.
  2. 1970: LAK got C Skip Krake and Boston acquired the draft pick that turned into Reggie Leach. Krake was a solid checking C and Leach was a featured sniper on one of the 70s best teams.
  3. 1971: LAK got L Ross Lonsberry (a fine 2-way winger) and L Eddie Shack. Boston got first round picks in 1971 (Ron Jones) and 1973 (Andre Savard, who had a solid NHL career).
  4. 1972: see 1969.
  5. 1973: see 1971.
  6. 1974: LAK acquired D Bob Murdoch (a good defender) and L Randy Rota (a fleet forward who couldn`t score enough to stay) for the first round pick that Montreal used on Mario Tremblay (who played a role on the Stanley teams in Montreal during the late 70s).
So, in a 6 year span LAK acquired G Gerry Desjardins, L Ross Lonsberry, L Eddie Shack, C Skip Krake, D Bob Murdoch and L Randy Rota. They gave up the picks that turned into:
  1. 1969: D Dick Redmond (771 NHL games)
  2. 1970: R Reggie Leach (934 NHL games)
  3. 1971: D Ron Jones (54 NHL games)
  4. 1972: L Steve Shutt (930 NHL games)
  5. 1973: C Andre Savard (790 NHL games)
  6. 1974: R Mario Tremblay (852 NHL games)
Wow. No matter what happens to Kings fans moving forward, their distant past serves as a cautionary tale for any NHL team. Hold on to your first round picks. 
--

One of the interesting things about this team is EV scoring. For some, the start of this season has been exceptional and for others it's been less than zero. I think Gagner is finding the range a little and that should bode well for a third scoring line (well, you know what I mean) and the Hemmer is on this road trip and that's all kinds of good. Here are the forwards 5x5/60 from behind the net:
  1. Ales Hemsky 3.47
  2. Ryan Smyth 2.94
  3. Jordan Eberle 2.71
  4. Taylor Hall 2.37
  5. Ryan Nugent Hopkins 2.18
  6. Ryan Jones 1.66
  7. Shawn Horcoff 1.54
  8. Lennart Petrell 0.64
  9. Eric Belanger 0.47
I don't think there's much we can say about Sam Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark, Anton Lander, Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk based on a few games (even fewer for Gagner, Omark and Hordichuk) but some seem to be a little worried about Paajarvi. Last year he scored at 1.36/60 rate 5x5, so based on his current 5x5 playing time (about 2 hours) he's 3 total points behind the curve. I think we can assume he'll drift back toward the median soon.

The keys (I think) are Smyth and Hemsky. The kids will see their numbers drop as the club heads out on the road, and that Smyth-Horcoff line plus Hemsky when he returns will need to deliver in tough situations.

Starting tonight.

295 comments:

  1. There is also a need for the 3rd and 4th line to show up and put pressure on as they did in the last game.

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  2. that Smyth-Horcoff line plus Hemsky when he returns will need to deliver in tough situations

    I think that's a strategic wast of 83, regardless of how well he'd do there.

    Right now opposing coaches at home can throw their 1st pairing D out against 4-93-14 and not worry about matching anything else (their coach would have his D pair of choice behind their scoring line, which means 94-10-28 plays against them)

    He doesn't have to worry about 2 of the Oiler lines.

    Put 91-89-83 together and they could make some hay against 3rd pairing D in a big way.

    Make opposing coaches have a tough decision on which D pair plays who.

    Putting 83 with 94-10, while it would be a good tough outscoring line, would be a benefit to opposing coaches because they can still key on 4-93-14.

    94-10-28's results against the toughs is very positive. No need to shore it up with Hemsky when the dike is leaking on 3rd line.

    That leaves 57-20-37 for the 4th line (2nd toughs) and Renney already plays them together at the end of games, so its not a stretch.

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  3. The offence will definitely come for this team, particularly on the 3rd line. Consider the following:

    Paajarvi: 23 shots, 8.1 rel corsi, 0% SH%

    Gagner: 10 shots, 4.3 corsi, 0% SH%

    Belanger: 12 shots, 3.0 corsi, 0% SH%

    All guys pushing play in the right direction, all guys taking at least a few shots (MP and Gags at 2 shots a night, or thereabouts) and yet not a single goal between them. The percentages say this will change soon, even on the road.

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  4. Are we still not talking about the unsustainably high SV% Khabbi's had at EVs, let alone the PK? I don't want to jynx it's continuation, so I'm happy to keep treating it like a purple elephant in the room, but if it's fair game, I'd suggest it doesn't matter when we get secondary scoring as long as Saint Nic keeps gifting games to the Oilers.

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  5. I thought 1st round draft picks were called "magic beans" round here and were never to be traded for.

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  6. Did Woodguy just advocate giving more TOI to Jones than Hemsky?

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  7. Does the sleeping beast that is one Dustin Penner rouse himself from his slumber and slay the mighty Oil tonight?

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  8. I agree with Woodguy's opinion. Put Hemmer with Gagner and MPS. Move Belanger to the 4th line with Lander/Petrell and Eager/Petrell.

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  9. Does the sleeping beast that is one Dustin Penner rouse himself from his slumber and slay the mighty Oil tonight?


    This is a big question - are the Oilers over the 'former player scores winning goal against them' thing? If so, does this mean it is truly a new era? What does it mean if Tuebert scores the winning goal?

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  10. So, putting aside people's take on the Penner trade, what do people think the 'real story' is on Dustin?

    I mean, the stats were generally supportive of him (making other players better, etc.), sometimes he did look a bit lazy out there, sometimes he looked dominant. He seems to do better under some coaches than others.

    Is it

    a)He has a unique style of game that some coaches don't understand how to use?

    b)Coaches get frustrated with him not fulfilling his potential (or not using his size) and this results in a 'head butting' between coach and player that causes problems? (the Square peg in the Octagonal Hole argument)

    c)He has bouts of being totally disinterested in hockey and actually IS lazy for long stretches?

    d)He is not really a good hockey player, but has had some success from feeding off of good linemates (I don't believe this one).

    e)Others?

    Rational thoughts regarding this would be appreciated.

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  11. spOILer

    I was going to say the same thing. I think we can make a distinction on now high that pick is. 1-5 and you have a very good chance of getting at least an NHL player.

    To me that is interesting for this year. I am one who felt the lottery was a distinct possibility again. If it looks like we are getting a middling pick, I would give it up for the right player.

    I would also leave the Smyth line as is because it doesn't need help and bolster another line with Hemsky. Moving Jones will actually hurt another line and his play if history repeats with him. I doubt he's become that much better over the summer.

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  12. Woodguy: Dennis threw around that same idea a few days ago. Seems like a good idea to pump some scoring out of (thusfar) unproductive lines. I think, at best, you'll have 55 drawing into the 4th line 50-50 (and when Hordichuk gets back, I'd expect Lander heads for OKC). That's not my ideal situation, that's just what the Oilers are likely to do. Would you still be confident of a checking line of 55-20-37? I think I could live with it.

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  13. One of these night the Oilers are going to score 7 goals.

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  14. One of these night the Oilers are going to score 7 goals.


    I just hope it isn't the same night Khabibulin lets in 5 and Dubnyk lets in 3...

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  15. Bookie: I took a look at Penner's underlying numbers and they don't seem to be nearly as bad as his basic results. Among LA forwards:

    -6th in QualComp (5th QualTeam)
    -4th in RelCorsi (just below Kopitar)

    Nothing spectacular too be sure, but not awful either (these numbers would suggest he's playing better than Stoll for instance).

    With that said, clearly the overall results aren't coming for him in LA (and haven't been since the trade). I can't figure it out either.

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  16. Interesting dilemma when Hemsky is ready. Assuming (dangerously) that the rest of the forwards corps is still healthy by then, the Oilers will have to sit out a real hockey player, having already sent one of those down to the farm.

    Obviously the guy to sit won't be any of Smyth-Horcoff or Hall-RNH-Eberle. The player is unlikely to be any of Jones, Eager, or Belanger, all signed to multi-year deals north of $1 MM a year this past summer. They are role players, sure, but clearly Renney sees a role for each.

    So the candidates to sit are Lander, Petrell, Gagner or Paajarvi. Yowsa.

    If Hemsky's return forces Gagner back into the middle - and I sure do like the sounds of 91-89-83 as a line that would give opposing coaches some grief - then Lander might be the odd man out. I don't think he would sit in the press box for long, and the argument could be made that the reason he's been here 'til now is the injuries to 89 and 83, but wow, the kid looks like an NHLer already and has been playing better and better in recent games.

    Tough call. Nice problem to have, compared to who do we sit between JFJ, MacIntyre, Fraser and Brule, vs. which ones do we actually have to use?

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  17. Did Woodguy just advocate giving more TOI to Jones than Hemsky?

    Intersting way of framing my thoughts DS....errr...spOiler. :)

    I'm advocating a move that will simultaneoulsy decrease the QualComp of a scoring line and increasing 5v5 pts/60 of probably two lines, especially on the road.

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  18. Bruce,

    Think you've hit the nail on the head with the Hemsky/lineup dilemma. Lander has proven his ability as a fairly reliable two-way center in the NHL, so the brass can take comfort in knowing what they have in the bag, so to speak. Sending him to OKC would be great for him in terms of minutes, and scoring touch. The kid can dangle, he's just not really had much chance to yet with the role he's been required to play. It's win/win; Hemmer returns and clarifies his future, Lander develops even further.

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  19. book¡e,

    Penner seems to be one of those athletes who are better than average, and yet lack motivation/fire-in-belly. Though Penner seemed to treat interviews like the plague, I recall an interview where he admitted he had laid-off the barley in the off-season, and that he felt it had greatly helped his conditioning and therefore play.

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  20. I also like the lines WG suggested and the thinking behind them. It's not like 89 and 91 are offensive duds that could waste Hemsky...who knows, that line could click and really produce something. And go figure, a 20 year old sophomore would seem to be a pretty reliable 2-way guy on the line. Good problems, good problems.

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  21. I too agree with 91-89-83 as a line.

    Get Renney on the phone and let him know that we have reached consensus on the issue.

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  22. I prefer 91-87-83 as a line. Let's get Tambellini on the phone instead and recommend a Gagner-for-Crosby trade.

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  23. WG - You're swinging and missing on this one. Smyth-Horcoff-Jones are still leaving a decent amount on the table and missing out on chances to create offence. They need that dynamic presence.

    I also don't understand the love for either 83-89 or 83-91 combinations. They haven't looked good (save for narrow stretches with 89 when Penner was here) together and just don't move at the same rhythm.

    If you've got 94-10-83, they can play crazy 5-on-5 minutes and we'll be pretty well set in terms of puck control and preventing the other team from scoring much at all. That's a huge advantage in terms of being able to essentially block off a portion of the game. This arrangement would also save some of Smyth's energy (despite his effectiveness, he's looked very tired in the 3rd of some games).

    You also keep the kids together; if possible for the next 15 years even.

    What we're left with is a bit of a mish-mash, but it should be an effective mish mash. I really don't see how you increase offence enough with 91-89-83 to offset Jones having so much icetime. I have a feeling that a Scotty Bowman-type coach would find ways to double-shift Hall, Eberle and Hemsky to get them into the right situations and make the absolute most out of things, but our coach isn't that guy.

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  24. ..Seriously though, it sounds like Penner is having issues with his knee.

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  25. Bruce: Gagner's numbers are better than Crosby's so far. Maybe we can work it by throwing in a 2nd.

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  26. I'm actually in favor of sending Lander down and getting him first line minutes for twenty games. He has the potential of being a more complete two way center than Belanger and Gagner. There have been flashes of quality chances by his line and this is all in a very few games. He's coming along very fast at the NHL level, as in improving game to game. One oops - weak on FOs.

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  27. Rational thoughts regarding this would be appreciated.


    Can't promise that, but it seems to me that Penner is a different cat.

    He is big and lumbers around and doesn't always seem interested. He is out of shape and often is caught standing around looking exasperated mid shift. Add in the fact that he likely looks at the coach sideways and has that dry sense of humour and you have a guy that coaches and some teammates can't understand.

    He is that guy you meet and can't figure out if he is really smart or just really weird.

    If the Oilers could get him back as a FA for $3.5 Million a season for a few years I'd be happy. He seems to fit in here.

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  28. I'd like to see 91 with 10 and 94. I think he plays good enough defence already.

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  29. Prevailing philosophy says that a team’s strength is down the middle. Like a jig-saw puzzle, it is easier to piece together the complementary pieces once the center has been completed and the bigger picture starts to appear.

    The Oilers have their center pieces in place and even this early in the season, we have a good idea on how the coaches want this picture to look.

    It doesn’t include Gagner at center.

    Maybe he will fit on the wing, or maybe he’ll wind up as one of those frustrating puzzle pieces you want to lock into place but are slightly over or undersized and have to be set aside while you find the one that fits.

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  30. Hemsky with Smyth and Horcoff is plugging him into the dump and chase routine or going in one on three while the other two plod up the ice. He then has to go crash bang in the corners. Somehow this doesnt scan right with the delicate shoulders. You want to save that talent not endanger it.

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  31. I think 94-10-83 would draw the best D pair away from the kids on the road, not sure that would be the case with 28 on that line.

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  32. Pekka Rinne has reached terms on a contract extension with the Nashville Predators # Preds. 7 years/$49M

    Wowzers.

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  33. yea, cap number is easy on that, 7mil/year.

    I don't see any way they can keep both Suter and weber now. You can have 3 guys on a team making 7mil or more, just that at least one of them needs to be a forward. No way can you invest that kind of money into your top 2 D and starting G and still have enough left over for more than 1-2 high end forwards.

    So....... How about we trade for Weber now?

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  34. I also don't understand the love for either 83-89 or 83-91 combinations.

    Hemsky's Scoring Chance WOWY last year:

    With Gagner: .529
    Without Gagner: .470

    Gagner with Hemsky: .529
    Gagner without Hemsky: .436

    Hemsky and Gagner play fine together.

    I think 94-10-83 would draw the best D pair away from the kids on the road, not sure that would be the case with 28 on that line.

    From what I see most NHL coaches have their preferred Dpair to play behind their best scoring line.

    Not written in stone, but there are certainly tendencies.

    Because 94-10-83 would be against the best offensive line of the opposition, the opposing coach can expect their top line to carry greater than 50% of the play (or close to), even if 83 is there, so its still not in his best interest to put his 1D pair out there.

    Watch how Renney runs 5-77, most opposing coaches do the same.

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  35. Glad to hear that they overpaid so much for Rinne. Signing any goalie for that kind of money is lunacy, which only means there will be less money to pay for more valuable players.

    Trading for Weber = Terrible Plan.

    Hall will be looking for either a longer-term deal or a medium money short term deal. Eberle will be in the same boat. Smid will need to be resigned, and looks like he might get a raise. Smyth will need a couple years @ reasonable money. And we need to pay potter a little more too.

    Trading for a guy who wants 7M + and may have some ego issues with the other raises due in the next two years is foolishness.

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  36. How about hemsky, paajarvi, peckham(or any other dman for that matter)and a first for weber (signed of course)?

    Is that workable or should they just save money for hall eberle rnh

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  37. Weber will test free agency, thats almost certain, would a young up and coming team be something he would be interested in? Or is the lure of the dys too strong?

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  38. WG

    The consequences of your suggestion were making me smile. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to do a little teasing. Sorry, I am far too weak to resist that kind of temptation.

    I think your idea is a fine idea, although the lack of FO ability in one young Samwise concerns me. I wonder if he should be playing with wingers that can better help in that area? So I would also be willing to see Gagner center Smyth and Jones and put Paajarvi with Hemmer and Horc.

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  39. Dooz: perhaps you've confused Suter and Weber. Weber is still an RFA after this year. Nashville probably deals with Suter next, but if he's committed to testing UFA status, he'll get his bidding war.

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  40. I am in the trade for Weber Camp.
    To Nashville
    Hemsky
    Peckham
    2012 first
    Conditional 2013 second (first if the Oil win the cup in 2012 or 2013.)

    To Edmonton
    Signed Weber preferably 5-7 year deal for 7mil/yr

    Maybe too much NHL 2012 for me lol.

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  41. At what point do we stop judging Jones on last year and start looking at this year? Here are a few stats, no further comment:

    Qual comp: 2nd/3rd/4th toughest
    Zone starts: 2nd toughest
    EV Scoring chances on: +32 / -34
    EV goals on: +5 / -4

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  42. Jordan

    Production drives salaries for forwards. Not all of the young guys are going to put up big numbers. We likely will have 2-3 big money forwards which is normal.

    If Webber is the real deal which seems to be the case, it is worth it. Having a dominant big minutes D really makes a team better. I do think you can live without one if you have quality depth. At the end of the day you spend the same money however.

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  43. Bruce

    The question is who is driving the bus? It's very unlikely Jones sustains those numbers on another line. He's doing well there, but he's the passenger.

    Anybody playing with Smyth and Horcoff is going to have good numbers.

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  44. I know breaking up the kids at this point sounds nutty, but isn't there something to be said for letting Hemmer run wild with Hall and Nuge for a while?

    There's always the chance that he'll love it and be more tempted to sign for something reasonable.

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  45. Willis has a great article up at the Cult of Hockey that's quite relevant to our current discussion of lines when Hemsky returns.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/11/03/the-fourth-line-has-been-dominated/

    Given the poor zone start and shots against results for the current 4th line, the idea of being able to slide Belanger back there and possibly send Lander to the AHL has even greater support.

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  46. According to cageek (pre-Rinne signing) NSH has 10 players signed for approx $23 million. Factor in Rinne, that is now 11 players for $30 mil. Factor in re-signing Suter for somewhere around 5-6 million per year and now you are looking at 12 players at 35-36 million.
    Assuming NSH stays around the cap floor, that leaves them around 15-18million to fill out the roster. An often overlooked item is some of the other players on NSH who will be RFA's in the off-season as well: Kostitsyn & Blum.

    I would wager a guess Kostitsyn will be in line for a big raise on his current 2.5. I'm guessing he will be looking at somewhere around 4-5 million based on current market conditions for 55 top-6.

    Blum, on the other hand, I am guessing they will try to lock up long-term if her continues to impress.

    All in all, it points to one of Weber or Suter not being around next year.

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  47. my last post is meant to read:

    "4-5 million based on current market conditions for top-6"

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  48. Cactus - I agree, but the 'never ever ever change a winning lineup" crowd will have great angst over the suggestion.

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  49. Wow.

    My respect for Poile just tanked.

    Tough spot for him for sure, but that's a lot of $ for a goalie, even Rinne.

    My last GM hero is now Doug Wilson.

    Bruce,

    I don't see anyone shit talking 28 in this thread, but I might have missed it.

    spOILer,

    You can't break up 94-10 on the checking line.

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  50. Of the 3 (Weber, Suter, Rinne), I thought for sure that Rinne would be gone with Lindback waiting in the wings. Would think that's a strong tell that they could be planning for a future without Weber.

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  51. Cactus: Wasn't so much confusing Suter and Weber as not understanding the 7 season rule of the CBA, that said Suter would be an excellent pickup for this squad if it wasnt a gross overpay. I don't remember specifics, but someone posted Weber's SA/60 , GA/60 and rel corsi with and without Suter and the results were striking. The drop off for Suter without Weber was no where near the former.

    As for bringing back the NH3 line, something about Hemsky drawing two defenders behind the net, passing it back to Nuge on the half walls feeding Hall in the slot sounds like the making of something. Having someone who can play smart hockey in thier own zone wouldn't hurt either.

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  52. Count me in as one of those who wouldn't mind Renney putting Paajarvi on the Horcoff/Smyth line.

    I think putting the speedy Magnus on that line would compliment their mandate (i.e. aggressive forecheck) and it raises the development bar for a player I fear is getting lost in the shuffle a tad with the kid line getting the premium minutes. The prevailing feeling seems to be that MPS projects as more a solid two way player than a pure scorer like the kids. If that's the case, Horcoff and Smyth could certainly be the right mentors for that style of play.

    A line featuring any 3 of Gagner, MPS, Hemsky or Omark sounds potentially soft to me so Jones sliding down the order might result in lines with some nice complimentary attributes.

    E.g.

    Jones/Belanger/Hemsky
    Petrell/Lander/Eager

    HS Gagner

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  53. I think we could be part of the Webber trade scenario.

    If you put up Whitney with Omark and a pick might get the deal done. If they MPS instead of Omark. I'd probably part with him as well.
    This would be great for Edmonton.
    Super stud on the d would be great for this team.

    So Whitney + Omark/MPS + pick for Webber.

    I think it would work for both teams.

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  54. Maybe this is heresy, but I think Suter is the better defenseman right now. And judging from what I've seen of Trotz using both players, he thinks so too. Dunno, maybe Weber is playing with an injury. Suter is the guy I would go after. And given his lesser public reputation, he may be the better deal.

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  55. The one good thing about Suter is he is UFA at the end of the season and could be had for cash only.

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  56. @jjwiens57

    So, in other words, the Preds would trade one of the best defenseman in the league for a defenseman who has missed 52 games out of the last 93, a forward who has 0 points in five games and is now languishing in the AHL or a forward who hasn't scored a point in 11 games.

    Yup.

    ~I'd wager that's the best offer they get~.

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  57. Fast Oil:

    It's true you end up spending the same money, but you end up spreading out the risk of injury over more players - you end up having a more diversified investments on your D. Odds are better that someone gets injured and your D corp isn't as strong, but don't have the risk of losing a larger proportion of your D payroll in one injury.

    I'd be quite willing to overpay for Sutter. Not for Weber. Hemsky, Whitney, a prospect and a conditional pick (lower if Hemsky resigns). There is a lot of risk in that move for NSH, but also a lot of reward too. Signing Sutter then becomes a huge deal, so if the Preds like the deal, we'd need to discuss a contract extension before the trade goes through, but that would do a lot to ensure this team is in the playoffs this year.

    The bigger issue with trades may end up being if they will trade at all right now. I don't see a lot of GMs gambling on how the realignment is going to work out. Nashville may wait until they know if they willl be one of the teams moving east before pulling the trigger on any trade, so that their guy is in the other conference, esp. if its Sutter or Weber.

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  58. @Woodguy: I was responding specifically to this:

    Moving Jones will actually hurt another line and his play if history repeats with him. I doubt he's become that much better over the summer.

    ... but was remiss in not citing the actual comment.

    Since my own comment I've read these:

    I really don't see how you increase offence enough with 91-89-83 to offset Jones having so much icetime.

    TOI/G:
    Horcoff 21:12
    Smyth 20:01
    Jones 15:59

    Renney knows what he's doing.

    It's very unlikely Jones sustains those numbers on another line. He's doing well there, but he's the passenger. Anybody playing with Smyth and Horcoff is going to have good numbers.

    ...which completely sidesteps the point about the toughness of that assignment. Lines that start in their own zone facing tough opponents rarely succeed carrying passengers.

    Enough from me about Ryan Jones, who is not exactly my favourite player to put it mildly. I just think the conventional wisdom of the Oilogosphere judges him pretty harshly for what he brings. He's a decent role player.

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  59. You can't have Smyth/Horcoff logging those kind of minutes all season. Smyth is dragging butt in the third period now.

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  60. I imagine we won't deal or let both 83 or 89 walk away so I would like to see 91 develop some chemistry with either of those guys.

    Him and 89 have played together for awhile now and it's OK but it's not great. And I keep talking about 91 because I think it's a fair bet to think that 94 will be back so with the first line off to a great start, we have to find a place for 91 to fit in and it's either with 10-94 or with either of 83 or 89.

    I think that short-term - and for home games - it makes more sense to reunite 83 with 94-10 and have a scoring shutdown line at home that lets the 93 line go wild and then we just hope that 91-89-plus pop in a goal here or there. Long-term it makes more sense to have 83 come back to play with 91-89 and hope to have a three line balance.

    Anyway, the only reason why this is being talked about is because A: 91 hasn't scored and B: 28 has scored one non-EN goal in 11 games so far. If he had chipped in another one or two, no one would be talking about moving Jones away from 94-10.

    anyway, nice to have options but at all points I think of where 91 fits in going forward and what's the best way to get value from him. if 94 resigns then it could be that 91 goes up with 94-10 and we build a third line around 20-89-57.

    I just can't see 83-89 being on the same team in 2013 no matter what.

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  61. Maybe this is heresy, but I think Suter is the better defenseman right now. And judging from what I've seen of Trotz using both players, he thinks so too.

    Suter was the best dman in the league last year.

    weber was -ve without him.

    Cannot hide that!

    A Whitney Suter 1st pairing? Sigh!

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  62. Spoiler: I recall writing a "magic bean" post before seeing the term used here, but surely the meme was out there.

    Not all first round picks are created equal. A 5th rounder in 1966 would be considered a 1st rounder today.

    1942-66 6 teams
    1967-69 12 teams
    1970-75 14 to 18 teams

    There's about 4 to 10 odds-on magic beans per season (bushy crops follow a lock-out year).

    Also, age is a factor. Teenage picks are far riskier than adult picks. Has the top-pick selection age drifted since the Warwick era? Trading an established magic bean stalk (aka ANP) for a magic bean is pretty dicey anywhere below the absolute cream of the draft year. You need to factor attrition. That can't-miss prospect might have Smid's penchant for kissing glass, but not his iron lips.

    On line combinations, what do people think about giving MPS a look on a program of crease-crashing steroids in tandem with Hemmer and RNH? If Hemmer learns to trust the touch pass and quick release, and MPS puts some teeth under his pillow, the tooth fairy might deliver some ducats.

    I'm only in favour of this if MPS is willing to find his size and shed some enamel. He'll get trapped deep more often, but somehow with that trio I don't think the back check is the Achilles heal. Do you hear footsteps? Often enough the play will turn sharply around when the other team bobbles the puck trying to find sixth gear, and they won't be happy about trading rushes one bit.

    MPS would be well served for a short stint watching pucks roll past a yawning cage while he's shading for defense six feet from Ryanville.

    I think Hemmer needs to conserve his rag moves for game-breaking scenarios, and not give his line mates Decision
    Fatigue
    the whole game trying to induce momentary heart attacks in the opposition. Until the situation calls for it. Horc can adjust his driving profile to anywhere from 1st line to 4th line at the drop of a pin. I think that's why he's had the most success with Hemmer. The pin drops often. RNH is the Rain Man of multiple pin drops. I think he would thrive with Hemmer tossing the salad.

    (Please excuse any repetition; I've lost track because I had to abandon a few posts half-written due to external distractions).

    Horc/Hall/Ebs can handle fairly tough minutes already I would think, or should continue their training sooner rather than later.

    Smyth/Gagner on the 3rd line wouldn't remain pointless for long and the reduced minutes might give Smyth a bit of a breather to rest his aching bones over a long season.

    I've always thought on the road its good to have a few different looks, depending on whether the opposing coach stacks his shutdown D or spreads them out.

    The Nuglets can continue to develop chemistry as our official Home Alone trio in residence.

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  63. Not all first round picks are created equal. A 5th rounder in 1966 would be considered a 1st rounder today.

    But hasn't the number of NHL player spots increased at the same rate? I would also suspect the total number of draft eligible players has increased by a similar rate.

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  64. Good thread today lads, lots of good discussion and not too much venom which is nice.

    I originally thought of Hemsky with Horc and Smyth, but I think I have been swayed the other way. If people remember back to that far away land in time of July, we all had Gagner and Hemsky as 2 of the 3 first liners. So why not do it again, and MPS is a great fit as he would be the defensive conscience of that line, while not giving away skill. The issue is people looking at Hemsky as a 3 rd liner, I would argue any line he is on is our 1st line, and if teams still key on the kids then he will eat their lunch.

    MPS-Gagner-Hemsky
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Smyth-Horc-Jones
    Eager-Belanger-Petrell
    Lander-Hordichuk

    You can roll Lander in anywhere, move Belanger up if needed, but this is a better balanced lineup that forces opposing teams to let one of Hemsky or the kids line run against weaker defensive lineups.

    And Belanger as a 4th liner gives Renney 2 tough minute lines, and 2 offensive lines. It's what we have clamored for the last few years.

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  65. Have always thought that one of:Suter/Weber would be available from Nashville later this year.

    Think for a highly talented group of forwards that Suter would be Whitney+ without the foot problems. very good 1st pairing guy that plays 24-25 minutes a night and QB the PP. He also moves everybody down a spot in role they are asked to play on our D which could have huge benefits.

    Weber is a very different piece. He is a cannon from the point on the powerplay and would add some protection for HENH. If you want to hit them, Weber will be playing 25+ minute a night and he will hit and hurt your star forwards. Think even large team--SJS, StL walk softly around Weber

    Anyone not named Hall, Eberle, RNH, MPS, Gilbert, Smid and Whitney would be in play for either guy and that, now, would include out 2012 1st.

    Both Suter and Weber would be prohibitively expensive but are young enough to be here throughout first 3-4 years that Oilers could compete for SCF

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  66. I should add it's long been a personal theory that Gretzky was at his best when Coffey was tossing the salad. The quickest mind feeds on shifting sands.

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  67. And I am all about trying to pry Weber out of Nashville. I'd give up Omark or MPS as well if it made it happen. they will not want a lot of money back, so Hemsky is out. Maybe Gagner, but only if he picks it up, and pairing him and MPS with Gagner raises their trade value.

    If you re-sign Hemsky, then MPS and Omark are trade bait. Which line is better

    MPS-Gagner-Hemsky
    Hartikainen-Gagner-Hemsky

    Beacuse if you think the JHarsky line is better, then you move MPS while his value is high (which is right now, but not in 2 years after subpar seasons on a 3rd line.

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  68. I'd like to see this:

    Hall Nugent-Hopkins Eberle
    Smyth Horcoff Hemsky
    Paajarvi Lander Gagner
    Eager Belanger Petrell

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  69. Having a line of three players with superior skillsets that mesh, who can produce long term and actually deserve a nickname is rare.

    We couldn’t find long term linemates to match the chemistry shared by Gretzky/Kurri or Messier/Anderson, or even Horcoff/Smyth.

    Hall, RNH, and Eberle have a chance to be our ‘nickname’ line for years. Apart from the complementary attributes of Gretzky-like vision, Messier –like drive, and Kurri-like shooting, they are all young and driven at the same stage of their careers. Prolonged losing hasn’t touched them yet.

    Give Hemsky-MPS an opportunity to become lab partners, preferably with Lander, but I’ll settle for Belanger for now.

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  70. DMW

    I believe that was also Gretzky's theory. And the Flames' coach the year "Steve Smith" scored on his own net (Badger Bob?) stated that the key to beating the Oil was shutting down Coffey.

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  71. When have the Oilers had any success signing elite UFA's or near UFA's?

    Weber likely has targeted Detroit as his landing spot, when Lidstrom retires.

    I'm all for taking a run at Suter on July 1, but I'm not going to trade Gagner or Paajarvi for him before the trade deadline with just a hope and prayer of signing him long term

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  72. Re Weber/Suter and Detroit,: much like the YEG arena debate you are applying yesterday's market place (where all cities would build you an arena) to tomorrow marketplace (where no one (saveYEG) will)

    Datsyuk is 33 and Zatterburg is 31. Those are the elite players you would be tying your future to. The SC playoffs Are a marathon and a goodly # of your core must be in its prime. Put simply, Detroits best days are behind them, not in front of them. Detroit is not a particularly attractive market, has shitty travel and has an aging group of elite players.

    I would trade for either of the 2 players in question and it would conditional on them signing a 3-5 yr contract.

    If you were an elite defender would you want to play with HENH when they are 22-25?

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  73. Spoiler Badger Bob also had a strategy of putting Neil Sheehy on the ice Vs, Gretzky and he goaded Gretzky like no other.

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  74. A Gagner move to centre means we now have 2 of 3 lines that can't win a faceoff. Belanger on the 4th line is a waste imo unless Gagner suddenly discovers the lost art. Just can't see a reason for relegating your best FO guy to 4th line duties.

    Rather see 89 go up to play RW with 94-10, 83 in with 20-91, and Jones ensconced on the 4th.

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  75. Crazy...

    Agreed. Funny thing is, I actually liked Sheehy, one of only two Flames at the time I can say that about. The other was Joel Otto.

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  76. Badger Bob line up 5 guys across the blue line and mugged every Oiler trying to enter the zone.

    If they had todays rules back then the Oilers would win 10-4 every game since the Oiler's would be on the powerplay for 28 min a game with all the interference penalties.

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  77. Woodguy has a good idea, albeit maybe just in the short term.

    Hemsky got hurt after 1 1/2 games. Maybe limiting his minutes will help him build strength, heal, and other shit.

    Fraser with 12 goals tonight¡¡

    As for Penner, seems par for the course that Burke goes after him sooner or later

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  78. Cactus:

    Glad to see shots against enter the picture.

    CORSI is a poor stat for defensive oriented players, since it's essentially a plus-minus for shots.

    When players play a defensive role, both sides tend to get canceled out, so we can't tell if they're actually good defensively or if their line is taking enough shots to even things... and vice versa.

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  79. Maybe this is heresy, but I think Suter is the better defenseman right now

    I haven't read the article itself, but i remember reading that someone did an advanced stats break down of Weber with and without Suter and he was very average without Suter, and Suter was still an uber-stud without Weber.

    Big Shot = Big Sexy

    I still think Weber's a hell of a NHL Dman, but given a choice I take Suter, but that's just by eye.

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  80. Hemsky's Scoring Chance WOWY last year:

    With Gagner: .529
    Without Gagner: .470

    Gagner with Hemsky: .529
    Gagner without Hemsky: .436

    Hemsky and Gagner play fine together.


    A little off topic, is there a WOWY zone start? I'm just curious if the Gagner Hemsky combo was used more heavily in the offensive zone. I wonder how much something like that can drive the WOWY scoring chances as much as actual 'chemistry'. I'm not for or against the combo, these are some of the best hockey players on the planet, they can probably figure out how to use each other well.
    It could help explain why Hemsky showed an ugly WOWY with Horcoff last season. When they are together, they are also fighting an uphill battle.

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  81. I'd like to see this.

    Hall RNH Eberle
    Smyth Horcoff Hemsky
    Skinner Seguin Tavares
    Paajarvi Belanger Gagner

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  82. I think Gagner is finding his way and will make the line he's on better. Hemsky might be added to that line on the road trip but I would hope Renney considers placing Gagner at C at some point in the future with Hemsky on his wing.

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  83. Yeah, this past week or so has been Gagner's training camp. A slow start has to be expected.

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  84. I think Kert raises an excellent point about WOWY.

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  85. Kert,

    That's a very interesting question.

    I wonder if its possible to pull that info out.

    Coachpb, if you're reading, care to comment if that's possible?

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  86. Are the Blue Jackets ever a bad team. Did Moreau have that much influence there?

    Half hearted, listless, no one wants to be on the ice, etc.

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  87. I think when Hemsky comes back we will see the end of the original kid line. Hemsky and Hall will see time together... perhaps:

    Hall - Gagner - Hemsky
    MPS - RNH - Eberle
    Smyth - Horcov - Jones
    Eager - Belanger - Petrell

    Of course, I'm normally very wrong with this kind of thing.

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  88. @spOILer

    I've taken a look at the scoring chances this year against the stars for the kids and for the 10 line.

    The kids have a way better ratio, albeit in a limited sample. I suspect a lot of what we're seeing there is zonestart.

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  89. Good god Steve Mason sucks.

    Oilers: I think this is the night where the dream dies and the team falls back to Earth. We are playing a very good team on the road and the blue is weak.

    Bad night for the liquor cabinet to run empty.

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  90. Bad night for the liquor cabinet to run empty.

    And yet, one on which it almost inevitably will.

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  91. I had no idea my TV had an AM radio setting.

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  92. More annoying, the audio feed is a good 3 seconds ahead of the video. We'll hear the goals before seeing them. Bah.

    I bet I could make it to the store in the intermission.

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  93. It's one been one shift but Penner looks like he's not even trying.

    What a shame. Trade him to Columbus, he'll fit in.

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  94. Good to know it's not just my audio. Maybe the broadcast truck got struck by lightning.

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  95. Sportsnet just made my night.

    But yea, they said they are having technical difficulties, and are using the FSN feed while Quinn and Debrusk are literally calling the game with their cell phones.

    I give them an A+ for effort, but jesus just use the FSN commentary, this is awful.

    Also, I love the fact that the kings are wearing their jersey with purple in it. So much better than the Black and Silver

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  96. Hearing someone cheek dial the phone just now was pretty hilarious.

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  97. I had to mute it. Sorry, SN.

    verification word: vagabra

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  98. Jones has been the best player on the ice so far.

    Don't get mad WoodGuy

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  99. I definitely need a drink to watch this. Jesus.

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  100. Situational Officiating - how was that not a trip on RNH?

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  101. Hall and Gagner with bad giveaways.

    Is RNH OK??

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  102. Is RNH hurt? Man that looked a little filthy.

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  103. I'm more concerned about him going off the ice looking hurt.

    And then the multiple giveaways

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  104. So they've went from a cel phone for the audio to a handheld camcorder for the video. Classic Sportsnet.

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  105. Must have gotten the wind knocked out of him.

    He's back (thank the lord)

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  106. Beauty play by Smyth. Jones didn't need to one time that.

    94 is absolutely flying tonight.

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  107. Well, they LOOK like the good Oilers so far.....

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  108. Great play by Gilbert to escape two forecheckers and reverse to Smid behind the net.

    Can't believe the amount of improvement of that pairing in their own end from last year.

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  109. Gilbert is Robocop - erased The Fat Man

    Jeebus - how is that not interference on 14?

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  110. Entertaining period - Oilers should have more to show for it - hope it doesn't come back to bite them.

    Kings should have spent most of the period in the box.

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  111. Second that call on 14, seriously gets knocked on his ass 30 feet from play and its a non call? WTF
    thanks for feed

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  112. Kid line trying to be way too cute, passing through one or two sticks. The team had a few ugly shifts but then seemed to regain some composure at the midway point.

    Are we seeing the emergence of Smid this season? Renney split up the 77-5 pairing so that Smid could pair off with Teubert and perhaps smooth him out.

    Gilbert looks perfect.

    Potter looks like Gilbert as a rookie, but without the skating ability.

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  113. The officials missed three obvious calls.

    The trip on RNH. Eberle get nailed from behind nowhere near the puck. Hall gets crosschecked face first into the boards.

    They were by far the better team in the first. Gotta start capitalizing on the PP

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  114. Hall, Eberle and RNH have all been put on their ass at least once. This is where Peckham, Eager, Jones, Smid need to step up and make themselves heard.

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  115. Potter is more physical and has appears to be calmer than Gilbert as a rookie

    Also, Teubert is a beauty, just mean

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  116. OR the Oilers could punish the Kings on the powerplay.

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  117. I'd also like to see Hall take a cheapshot or two at Doughty. Drew seems to have a real dislike for #4.

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  118. Belanger looks a little lost to me.....result of the hits the other night?

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  119. Thank you for the feed. I tuned in just in time to see Eberle knocked onto his face light-years from the play... maybe the ref thought he went down to easy...

    I'm always so skeptical to praise guys because I really don't want to jinx anything, but I think Smid has "turned the corner" or however you old guys say it.

    Potter is a very calm sort. Such a pleasure to have him out there.

    Gilbert is solid to beat hell.

    Kids need to shoot more often. And not get hurt.

    Man I am pullin for them.

    word verification: unsane (!)

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  120. Potter knocked a clearing attempt out of the air and then blocked Kopitar's shot. Good shift.

    Where the f did this guy come from?

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  121. What does everyone think about trying Gagner in Hall's place on the 1st PP unit?

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  122. I see now I completely plagiarized Jonk. keen eye, Jonk

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  123. Belanger looks like he has no place on the powerplay. Completely stationary, telegraphs all his passes, no shots.

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  124. I like the idea of Belanger on the opening PP and then the Brats.

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  125. Belanger looks a little lost to me.....result of the hits the other night?

    I think he's probably used to being the first man to the puck most of the time and young Magnus keeps blasting by him. That has to be strange.

    I still can't get over Potter. Wow.

    Renney seems to be doing okay with matches. I'd say he's winning the battle so far.

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  126. Just turned on the feed.

    Coach starts Gagner's line at the beginning of the period so the kid line can get soft minutes after the powerplay. Now THAT is linematching!

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  127. Gagner is not having a good game. He's given the puck away more times than successfully continued the possession, by my eye.

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  128. Ribs, exactly, because then it's Horc on Kopitar.

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  129. Hall somehow gives Hopkins a suicide pass back into their own zone, then takes a bad penalty. Bah.

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  130. Hall's trying to be too cute tonight.

    Make the simple play. Led to him taking a bad penalty

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  131. Smid sure looked awkward on that shot block attempt

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  132. I am enjoying watching Ladislav Smid play the game of hockey.

    An eternal shift by all there.

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  133. Jones has 6 SOG.

    There goes the shooting percentage.

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  134. Is it just me or has the second period been like watching paint dry?

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  135. They're keeping one forechecker a little higher tonight, it seems like. Sometimes just one in and then if he forces the play the high guy attacks.

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  136. Only way that goal could have been better is if it somehow went off of Fraser's foot.

    hehe

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  137. Ah Smytty - If he scores a pretty goal I'll get worried

    Not seeing Gagner good tonight.

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  138. Captain Canada.
    Too bad that goal was an illusion.
    Or unsustainable.
    Or luck.

    Sorry, which reason was it that none of this success is supposed to actually indicate, you know, success?

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  139. If Ryan Smyth can't get an office job in hockey when his playing career is done, you gotta know he'd be happy to drive the Zamboni. "Just let me in the rink, man". A true rat.

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  140. I missed Ryan Smyth. Always bringing the garbage goals in close games when we need one.

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  141. Smyth should have done this to Martinez...lol.

    http://www.thecheapseats.ca/2011/11/goal-celebration-of-the-day-the-opposing-defenceman-hug.html

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  142. Barker as Chewbacca for Halloween?

    I guess the pylon costumes were all sold out?

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  143. Is it just me or is Teubert not a noticable downgrade over Sutton/Barker?

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  144. The ice in LA looks like shit. Suckers with their 30 celcius temperatures.

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  145. I've got one sweater with no number/nameplate on it yet. I know I want 94 but I'm torn between "captain canada" and "heart & soul" for the nameplate. Wonder if "garbage goals" would fit.

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  146. Gagner's been awful. Renney needs to park him for a while

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  147. Teubert is finishing all of his checks. Beauty.

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  148. Baby Oil line seeing more ice since the goal.

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  149. Some real smart and tough play by Eager there.

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  150. Icecastles: How about "Just how many"? As in, they don't ask how, just how many.

    Nice shift by the 4th there.

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  151. Petrall scores, this has to be one of the signs of the appocolypse.

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  152. I think you have to keep sending Gagner out there. He has not been close to good tonight but as mentioned above this is his TC.

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  153. agreed Gagner's been looking bad, Belanger has been looking average and poor Magnus has been looking all kinds of discombobulated by his linemates despite some strong individual play.

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  154. This looks like such a different team than last year. I blame Renney more than I do Noogey.

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  155. LT

    It will be much easier to run him out there with a two goal lead

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  156. How great would it be to see Eager fight Moreau? Or Teubert fight Penner?

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  157. I agree, LT. I remember MacT once saying that there are some slumps where you get benched, out there are some slumps that the only way out of is to play your way out (he may have actually been talking about 89 too, if I recall). And when you've got a 2-goal lead, you can afford to play him.

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  158. This is definitely a case of "didn't see him good" for ganger. I think they need to find a way to get him back in the middle.

    And good for Patrell. Nice to see him get his frist goal.

    They also just gave an assist to Lander, his first point in the NHL. Good stuff.

    Also, saw Teubert good. First NHL game, and he's holding his own. All we can ask for.

    Is it me, or is this a real hockey team playing in white? A real nice change from the last couple years.

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  159. itsaleaf: Agreed. One hopes Gagner finds his stride before Hemsky gets back.

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  160. Good old Jones, muscles the puck away as the period ends, then doesn't have the skill to flip the puck to the linesman.

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  161. @ Ice Castles

    It would be more clever if you had the Nameplate as "Canada" and just put the "C" on the jersey.

    Not a pretty goal to be seen. Love how they're all for the good guys this year.

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  162. The Kings sure seem to get away with a ton of interference away from the puck. I'm not sure how many Oilers I've seen picking themselves up off of the ice when the puck is nowhere near them.

    I was wondering when Renney was going to throw the 4th line out again. They had been sitting for almost the whole period but they've definitely earned more ice for themselves in the 3rd.

    MPS is really skating well tonight, I can't say the same about Samwise. Hopefully this line can get going soon, they are going to be needed on the roadtrip.

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  163. I don't think you want Teubert to fight Penner. Penner can be an actual heavyweight. Teubert is more like Peckham, a big middleweight.

    Plus you don't want to wake Penner up.

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  164. goals aren't pretty but the more time you spend in the other team's end, the greater the chance of random chance falling in your favour.

    ugly goals but i think they've been earned.

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  165. Give Jones a break, that flipping the puck to the ref move is hard.

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  166. Everytime 94 is on the ice the puck immediately moves North and stays there. He's putting on a clinic along the boards and he's carried the puck over the blue with speed 5 or 6 times already - What a beauty player.

    Yah, Gagner - I thought he was getting his hands and legs back last game, but wow - 3 of the worst giveaways I've seen him commit as an Oiler.

    I know he's not fleet of foot, but man he's not moving his feet.

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  167. This whole depth thing is kind of nice. I could get used to it.

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  168. Gagner's worst moment of the period was the spin-a-rama at centre ice, which resulted in him giving the puck away

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  169. That play by Eager adn Petrell makes me think Belanger with them will be a solid checking line. Then you can move Gagner back to centre when Hemsky is back. Doubt it happens, but hope so. Lander can sit a bit, and if Gagner struggles yo move Lander in for him.

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  170. Omark could have made that flip the puck up to the linesman move no problem. Obviously Jones needs to sit in the press box so the Oilers can recall 23.

    Those pucks don't flip themselves, after all.

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  171. Jordan: I've got a WJ Team Canada sweater with "canada" on the nameplate. Don't want to repeat myself. :)

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  172. Gotta love Petrell's Viking-Scandic-God-Like scream at the heavens celebrating his first goal! Gots to luv them Finns. Buddy is a keeper.

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  173. Need to see the same hard work and relentless speed for one more period. C'mon boys.

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  174. Welcome back Hazel - Hmmm... something looks different about her ;)
    Martine and now Hazel - Sportsnet isn't all bad.

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  175. It would be huge for the Oilers to win in reg in the first away game on this trip from hell.

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  176. @striatic

    ya, but after Omark flipped the linesman the puck the reaction around the league would be that he's a showboat and disrespectful.

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  177. 4-93-14 getting a steady diet of Mitchell and Doughty.

    Will be nice when 83 gets back to spread out the top D more.

    91-20-89 need to practice line rushes more, they seem to have no clue where the others will be.

    89 trying a spin-o-rama at center ice with only 1 D back was ill advised.

    Finns win.

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  178. Gagner's worst moment of the period was the spin-a-rama at centre ice, which resulted in him giving the puck away

    That was pretty sad looking. I'm not sure what league he thinks he's playing in trying to pull something like that off.

    Hall needs a "Calm Down" button.

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