Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Kostka Special

The Florida Panthers placed Mike Kostka on waivers earlier today. He's one of several AHL level defenders with waiver rights and a 24 hour window.

Kostka is a very interesting player because of his skill set and the numbers he posted in the American Hockey League. He's also interesting in that the NHL team Kostka players for (Florida Panthers) has more depth than the Edmonton Oilers.

In this way, Kostka represents a possible "gem" via the waiver wire.


The Florida Panthers aren't the 75 Habs on the blueline, but the team does have plenty of experience and high draft picks:
  1. Edi Jovanoski
  2. Brian Campbell
  3. Mike Weaver
  4. Jason Garrison
  5. Dmitri Kulikov
  6. Keaton Ellerby
  7. Erik Gudbranson
That's a pretty good group of players--Oilers would do well to acquire players 3 through 7--although experience at the tail end is lacking. Having said that, the demotion of Kostka means that Edmonton has a chance to acquire a young defender with a decent chance of having an NHL career.

KOSTKA RESUME
  • Has good size for NHL blue (6.02, 210)
  • Can move the puck well and has improved in the AHL (fewer mistakes, good reads) during his 236 regular season games at that level.
  • Is young enough (25) to help a team after growing into a role in the NHL (should he prove able to do it).
  • He appears to have turned the corner. Panthers coach Kevin Dineen: "He's just found a level of stability. He's a little older, a college guy who's been in the pros for three years. His intelligence has been a strong point. He's got patience with the puck, so he's done a good job in training camp and has earned a longer look." Source is here.
  • He finished 3rd in AHL points among defensemen a year ago (54) and led the league in goals by a defender (16).
  • He finished in a tie for 16th for PP goals (11) last season in the AHL. His 20 PP assists also tied him for 16th in that category
  • He shot the puck 199 times last year in the AHL. That total ranked him 2nd in the AHL among defensemen.
I think it would be foolish to expect a big offensive season from this player if he were to be claimed and then inserted into the lineup. However, that's not the threshold we are concerned with; the line in the sand we've establushed is Taylor Chorney--is he better than Chorney?

74 comments:

  1. He is absolutely better than Chorney and likely better than Potter. I think he is precisely the type of player v3.1 should be watching for and (hopefully) picking up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. He's totally better then Chorney.

    We need him and another gem to boot.

    Give us a d-man Steve, LT's dying here!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Not trying to play devil's advocate here LT but do you really see a D corps with:

    Brian Campbell
    Dmitry Kulikov
    Ed Jovanovski
    Jason Garrison
    Keaton Ellerby
    Erik Gudbranson*
    Mike Weaver


    as being a step over the Oilers with 4 of the top 6 having a total of 329 games played? With Whitney and Schmeebs in the lineup I'd take the Oilers top 6 hands down.

    Plus if a guy can't crack THAT lineup what's he really going to bring here. I don't see much more there than we already have with Potter...who I've been quite pleasantly surprised by.

    Toss in the fact that we are so amazingly gifted at forward that our D is seldom going to have to handle the puck. Har. Possession is 9/10th's of the law.

    poweatif....reading back to front something a Canadian might say to a buff Italian

    ReplyDelete
  4. Kind of hard to get really excited about the new season when we know our GM isn't going to do jack until the trade deadline...

    ReplyDelete
  5. ixnay on the efenceday on aiversway.

    Have you even heard about how deep this years draft is? Com'n, get with the plan.

    ReplyDelete
  6. His big jump in shot total indicates to me that he went from non-PP to PP last season.

    I don't know. My line in the sand is Potter not Chorney. I suspect he's similar to Potter without the NHL games.

    Whitney
    Gilbert
    Smid*
    Petry
    Sutton
    Barker
    Peckham
    Potter

    *injured

    These are our top 7 Dmen, right? So wouldn't the pickup have to be Potter worthy at least? And even he is going down when Smid returns?

    ReplyDelete
  7. spOILer: I think we're looking at things from the opposite side. I'm thinking this is an ideal time to add a player, who has a decent number of games (I'll guess 5) to impress before people get healthy.

    I don't think that's your viwepoint, which is cool. But there's a chance to add talent here, and maybe grab a useful player.

    I don't know that Kostka is anything, maybe he can't skate or has tourettes.

    But maybe he can play. I don't think there's any harm in bringing him in.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wouldn't you rather give Potter that opportunity? I think he's earned it. And I think it says something to his teammates if one doesn't.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I do work at the same place as Ellerby's mom, and by all accounts he is a decent kid, and it would be lovely to shake him lose from FLA's tree. But that ain't gonna happen, so I think Kostka is a decent consolation prize. Frankly, anything is better than an AHL call-up at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I think Potter gets the opprtunity no matter what. Whitney hasn't played a game in months and Smid is hurt. I can't imagine either of those guys are going to be available for the first few games at least.

    So the top 7 is more likely:

    1. Gilbert
    2. Petry
    3. Sutton
    4. Barker
    5. Peckham
    6. Potter
    7. Teubert

    I'm taking Kostka.

    ReplyDelete
  11. How do you figure Potter is out, if there is a waiver pick-up? Is there confirmation that Whitney will actually play opening night? (I ask, b/c I've been too swamped to even think about looking)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Cabbie: garrison and weaver were two of the 18 dmen who faced tough comp, with weak teamates and killed them in GA.
    they were the #1 shutdown pair in the league.
    tough compPair
    Weaver-Garrison
    your second pair is
    Campbell-jovinovski
    and third pair is
    Kulikov-Ellerby

    If your not quite good enough to be Kulikov-elerby then there is a good chance you are 2nd pair on oilers.

    ReplyDelete
  13. well, i sure hope they pick someone up, the more depth at D the better, right?

    not sure how that might affect our 50 contract limit though..?

    What about McCabe? Some rumors out there are suggesting he might getting some offers from the Oilers, would it be worth it?

    ReplyDelete
  14. He is better then Chorney. He is what we hope Chorney becomes in 2 or 3 years. Potter is going to start the year here for sure. SMid isn't going to play for at least a month, so we need someone. Oklahoma coach was on Stauffer today saying they only have 6 dmen and have to make a minor league trade or hope we send someone down So we send down Chorney (who will clear waivers) and pick up Kostka to be our 6/7 dman. Whoever plays better between him and Potter stays up when Smid comes back. Chorney plays top pairing minutes and improves, instead of being our pressbox dman (which will not help his development).

    It helps our depth and gives us a chance to see if we pick up a diamond in the rough. Give him a shot, and if it doesn't work out or Potter clearly outplays him then he is waived again when Smid is back. No real risk here.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The Oilers have one contract left. You have to be damn certain you know what you are doing when you use it.

    Thus, it would make more sense to try trading for him, with one contract out for one contract in.

    The mistake Tambellini made was during the off-season, not getting a more reliable and proven guy defensively than Barker.

    The problem is that Barker isn't a sure safe thing. The OIlers needed a sure safe veteran addition at defense. Betting on a rehab project was extremely poor judgement.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Kulikov's probably up top with Ed.

    Weaver and Garrison will probably be relayed to 6/7 at the end of the year.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Personally, I would look at Montreal. Between Markov, Subban, Gill, Gorges, Spacek, Campoli, Diaz, Weber, Yemelin and Woywitka, someone decent should be available soon.

    ReplyDelete
  18. When assessing Florida's defense, you folks are forgetting about Gudbranson.

    Going to be a stud.

    ReplyDelete
  19. QCoilers said...

    Personally, I would look at Montreal. Between Markov, Subban, Gill, Gorges, Spacek, Campoli, Diaz, Weber, Yemelin and Woywitka, someone decent should be available soon.

    Both Markov and Gorges are on IR.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I'm not sure how we can demand a waiver pickup when we know little about the injuries. It makes even less sense to burn a contract spot if the time frame is 1-2 weeks. We don't know enough about either Whitney or Smid.

    Based on the bunch of "ifs" though, Kostka is someone to consider, while also considering the opportunity cost of missing any other future waived players (of course, that would require having a pro-scouting department).

    But this option is by no means the clear-cut right move right now.

    ReplyDelete
  21. In fact only Markov is on IR.

    The other 2 are Eller and White.

    27 players still at camp.

    One will be cut soon.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Woywitka is probably the one who will get cut. He's an interesting option, since he did manage to play 63 games (17:56 toi/g) for Dallas last year.

    However, I would target Weber. He's still pretty young, had a couple of strong years in the AHL and was decent in last year's playoff. He's probably 8th or 9th on their depth chart, so he shouldn't be that hard to get.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Tambellini is delusional:

    "We do have lots of forwards and we’re banged up a bit on the back-end, at least on the short-term,” said Tambellini. “I’ve had discussions with other general managers but nothing that makes sense now. Our depth (defence) when healthy is pretty good. We could use a top three defenceman in a trade. But is that going to happen? I don’t see that.”

    ReplyDelete
  24. News Summary: Huberdeau sent back to the Sea Dogs today. El Nino on the IR. Scheifele signed. Brunnstrom signed by the Wings... to a 2 way, lol.

    Had Justin Braun needed waivers yesterday, he's a guy I would've taken.

    I don't like Yemelin or Weber; they need time in the AHL. Weber's played in the Swiss League his whole life. He doesn't need his small frame tested in the NHL. I can't justify giving my last contract spot up for that, whether we can get them down to the A or not.

    ReplyDelete
  25. If Detroit could cash a base runner every now and then, I'd sure appreciate it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Spoiler:

    The hell you talking about?

    Weber played for Kitchener.

    Emelin was 5th in KHL D-men scoring and 1st in Goals.

    Certainly better than Oilers' bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Shit sorry, meant Diaz not Weber. Although I' sure that would been obcious to you. FPB.

    Yemelin has had one good year in the K. The rest were utter shite. Doubling his goal total from his previous 155 games combined. I'd be very wary and want to see some shooting percentage and PDO, before tieing my last contract to that wagon. Unbelievable difference in stats year over year.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Spoiler: aren't you talking about Rafael Diaz, and not Weber?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Nice post by the way FPB. I see we have another season of gallic arrogance and trash talk ahead of us. Lovely.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Spoiler: Anyway. Aren't we wasting contracts with guys like Hordichuk anyway?

    I'm sure there's a dope in the AHL we can let go.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Johan. Motin.

    word ver: drylisc. What wakes up Bryan Murray in the middle of the night.

    ReplyDelete
  32. FPB...

    ...none of the 49 contracts don't expire till next summer.

    If you want to get rid of a contract you have to trade one, or send Nugent-Hopkins, Pitlick, or Hamilton back to junior, or wait till next summer.

    ReplyDelete
  33. DSF:

    He's delusional in a way, and right in a way.

    I mean... we have 5 #5 D's sitting around here. In a way, sure, that's great depth.

    The problem is we only have 2.5 top 4 D's sitting here, and that's being generous to Smid.

    We could have a ton of injury to our 5-6-7 D and not miss a beat.

    Any injury to anyone in the top 4 and we're fucked though.

    .... oh, Whitney and Smid are out and we only have one top 4 left? Shit.

    ReplyDelete
  34. If you pick up a player off waivers don't the rules say you have to keep him on the roster for a certian amount of time, otherwise he goes back to the original team?

    I think that's why picking up someone less then Potter puts Potter in a bad spot.

    Someone tell me if I'm wrong on this.

    ReplyDelete
  35. jj - if you try to send him to the AHL at any point during the year, he can be claimed back by the team you took him from who can then keep him in the NHL or return him to the AHL (again passing through the rest of the teams via waivers), he also is then open to the rest of the league in terms of a waiver claim if his own team does not claim him.

    ReplyDelete
  36. godot10:

    You might be able to gain a contract spot by recalling Brule and hope someone picks him up at half price?

    ReplyDelete
  37. If you're going to claim a defenceman off of waivers I think that the only time it makes sense is to poach a "pretty close" prospect from a team that's deep at the position.

    For example, L.A. poached Kyle Quincey from the Wings a few years ago.

    ReplyDelete
  38. They won't get a dman, even a waiver guy. The Barker and Sutton acquisitions raise this question: Are two #1 draft picks enough for Kevin Katzbellini?

    Doubt it.

    Everybody knows the Arenmonton Oilers have to wait til' the monopoly is secure. 2 more years of Khabi! Maybe two more #1 draft picks til' it's built!

    word ver: lanshers- lashes Lander gets when he tries to win.

    ReplyDelete
  39. I think PDO's summary is dead on, maybe the best I've seen, but i don't surf the Oilogosphere that widely.

    I don't see the point of adding another bottom end guy. The problem fron July 1 (and before) is a top 3 Dman, just as Tambellini has said in two separate interviews. They would love to add to the D too, and they know where they should add. The waiver wire is only the answer on the margin, unless it's a true talent that a wealth can't protect. We are nowhere near that point of marginal differences yet.

    ReplyDelete
  40. FPB said...

    Spoiler: Anyway. Aren't we wasting contracts with guys like Hordichuk anyway?


    Doesn't matter if the Oil are unwilling, or cannot, divest themselves of that contract. In Hordichuk's case, I see them as unwilling to give up a whole season of an enforcer they signed as a free agent over two weeks of bottom 6 defensive help.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Spoiler: Yeah manner of speaking.

    As said earlier Johan Motin is probably not really precious anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Dregger was on the TEAM 1260 this morning, reporting that Toronto and Edmonton are talking. Apparently Franson is looking to start the season in the pressbox, and the Leafs are still looking to improve their top 6 depth.

    By the sounds of things, Schenn and Gunnarson are off the table, and Gardiner is highly regarded by the org. Which basically leaves Sloppy-seconds, Liles, Komisarek and Franson for NHL-level D.

    Anyone interest you on that list? What would you give up?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Jordan:

    I wonder if they might be talking about something like Franson for Omark?

    Similar ages, contracts, both RFA's next summer?

    ReplyDelete
  44. I would be completely interested in Komisarek if he didn't have a high contract.. or more importantly a longer one.

    I've always swayed towards that kind of d-man... the banging, stay-at-home type. I think we could use his toughness in front of our goaltender. He shoots right. He gets a bit of a bum rap with the Leafs. He had great seasons in Montreal, for the type of player he is.

    Too bad about the contract though. Unless we were moving out one of our less desireable contracts, everything I said is all moot, because $4.5M/yr until 2013/14 isn't a good idea.

    I have moderate interest in Franson.. good PP skills, but I think we really need a player who excels at defense.

    Tom Gilbert had a great quote recently that I loved hearing from him.. something to the tune of: our forwards are very skilled, I just need to get them the puck and focus on defense. I was kind of floored to hear something like that from him. I'll leave it at that though so it doesn't turn into a Gilbert debate.

    ReplyDelete
  45. BTW, my post was directed to Jordan who mentioned the T.O. players available.

    As far as the OP, I don't know anything about this d-man. So far he seems to scream stay away due to what seems to be a career NHLer... and I'm not sure I'd say he has the skill set we really need. But, again, I don't know enough about him.. just what I've read out there since seeing this post.

    ReplyDelete
  46. He's a right shot. I would grab him if:
    A) it didn't cause problems with Florida

    B) it doesn't put us at 50 contracts.

    C) He can skate

    What's to lose otherwise with a skilled big right shooter?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Tencer tweets:

    From: @dantencer
    Sent: Oct 5, 2011 10:11a

    Powerplay units today: Hall-Nugent-Hopkins-Hemsky + Omark-Smyth-Eberle. Horcoff and Belanger, Petrell and Jones doing the PK.
    .

    I like the looks of those ST personel (except Jones af course)

    Sad to see PRV not have a home on a special team.

    ReplyDelete
  48. There has been a lot of talk about fliping Hemsky or Omark for a D-man. I don't like the value of moving either for Komi, because of contract and his overall effectiveness over the last few years. He's a more expensive Sutton. Pass.

    I don't see Franson as enough of an upgrade for what this team needs right now (top 4 D). I would try to make a move for Gunnersen. I really like Omark, and would be loathe to move him, but would consider it for a stright up trade. I would also look at moving Hemsky for Gunnersen and a Pick in the upcoming draft (3rd?).

    If the Price for Gunnersen was Gagner, how much more would you want to pull the trigger?

    ReplyDelete
  49. Powerplay units today: Hall-Nugent-Hopkins-Hemsky + Omark-Smyth-Eberle. Horcoff and Belanger, Petrell and Jones doing the PK..

    which unit outscores the other. 2 of the first we are going to here alot of Shoot from the Crowd.

    ReplyDelete
  50. MTL pick up Betts and put Woywitka on waivers.

    ReplyDelete
  51. PP options look good. I believe the Omark line will outscore the other one.

    One good thing is no Horcoff on the PP (Smyth can take those draws). Although that will change if none of them can win a faceoff.

    As for the MPS thing, I expect he'll be on the point with Potter, and the other pairing will be Gilbert and Barker

    ReplyDelete
  52. Both Chorney and Whitney practicing in full contact drills today.

    Eager still wearing red.

    3rd day in a row for lines:

    4-93-83
    94-20-14
    91-10-23
    37-57-28

    Probably your opening night lines.

    All as per @NHL_Oilers twitter feed.

    ReplyDelete
  53. DBO,

    Good point about 91 as PP D.

    They tried him there a few times last season and also in this pre-season.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Would Woywitka be a top 4 dman in Edmonton? With Whitney and Smid out, he has to be better than Gilbert-Petry-Barker-Sutton. Probably.

    With Smid or Whitney back, is Woywitka still a top 4? Maybe.

    ReplyDelete
  55. There has been a few articles out about Sutton being under-rated and more effective than people think over the last couple of seasons.

    Based on his pre-season play (limited as it has been) I think he might be a reasonable 4D once whitney is healthy, let alone now that he's injured.

    Is he better than Barker? That's a tough call.

    ReplyDelete
  56. I don't think Woywitka has ever been anything than 3rd pair in the NHL.

    With Chorney and Whitney practicing with full contact, I expect no waiver pick up.

    Chorney was reported to have stretched scar tissue and not re-injured the knee.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Woywitka should absolutely not be a consideration for this team, no.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Isn't there a trade market for Jones right now? Couldn't you flip him and maybe a prospect for a #3 or 4? That would help and we have replacements at the ready.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Jones as a trade...

    I've always been one to not want to trade away a player like this... but I think I'm coming around to the idea of "sell high".

    However, there is a plus in that he is a superb team guy that actually can play decent hockey. He can score goals when our top lines are struggling.

    We're all anxious to bring in every single rookie we have though, so I'll caution against that idea. Having some vets in there to shoulder the burden isn't so bad. Plus it helps with team chemistry when you have a guy like him in the dressing room. And again, unlike other "great locker room guys" we've had, he can play a solid enough game to hang on to him.

    But I must admit, I'm tempted to want to sell high here too...

    ReplyDelete
  60. Racki:

    What are you talking about? We traded Comire for him. I can only assume he must be better than Perry.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I would be completely interested in Komisarek if he didn't have a high contract.. or more importantly a longer one.

    Rel Corsi says he was TOR worst D man last season (-6.6).

    He is crappy and expensive.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I would be completely interested in Komisarek if he didn't have a high contract.. or more importantly a longer one.

    Rel Corsi says he was TOR worst D man last season (-6.6).

    He is crappy and expensive.


    But other than that he's got a lot going for him.

    ReplyDelete
  63. he was TOR worst D man last season
    yes he was!

    Aulie was toronto's best for the 40 games he played:
    he faced the 25th toughest situation in the league was one of 18 tough situation dmen better than league average and ranked 12th for tough comp guys right around Doughty, Staal, Yandle, Whitney.

    TOR sent him to the marlies this year?

    I would love this guy on our team.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Commonfan14: not to mention he was the centerpiece in us acquiring Chris Pronger, of course. :P

    ReplyDelete
  65. Rich: Hope you're sarcastic.

    Komisarek is a guy who lived on being paired with Andrei Markov, and can't make a pass to save his life.

    Sure he'l get the puck back, but he'l give it away as soon as he got it.

    I tought Woywitka played very well in the preseason. The dices were rolled before TC.

    If the oil can pick him up, go. If you go overdrive with the contracts you can waive him again.

    ReplyDelete
  66. @flamingpavelbure:

    Am being extremely sarcastic. Ever since it was floated I've been against Komisarek.

    Probably more from a term remaining and dollars perspective more than anything. His contract will be a millstone when it's time to start re-signing the kids.

    But I think you nailed it that Markov really carried him around - and he was able to cash in with a nice free agency contract. Good for him, bad for the team that has him.

    Off track a little, the reading today on ON has been interesting regarding rumors of Vish one day coming back to replace 3.1.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Connolly on IR: after a fall in Practice: Upper body injury.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Matt Walker was also put on waivers, I'm betting he passed allready. He would have worked in a pinch.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Are we sure Connolly didn't break a hip on the fall too?

    ReplyDelete
  70. @racki,

    you are mistaken, that would be a lower body injury ... LOL

    ReplyDelete
  71. Based on his pre-season play (limited as it has been) I think he might be a reasonable 4D once whitney is healthy, let alone now that he's injured.

    Is he better than Barker? That's a tough call.


    By reason of the transitive property, he can't be both a reasonable 4D and not better than Barker.

    ReplyDelete