There hasn't been a player invented who could help a team overcome those numbers in a single season, but that isn't the job at hand. The job is to improve in all areas to the point where things are headed in the right direction.
A generation in the basement is no fun at all. If this team can improve the offense while getting more consistent goaltending and a more mature set of F's and D's working together then there might be some hope this time next year.
We've talked at length about the goaltending questions and the Ryan Whitney worries are well known. The opportunity is there for someone to step up during training camp on the blue and in net. I think Jeff Petry and Yann Danis are the pair who will emerge but the next two weeks will tell us more.
I don't think Whitney's injury and Khabibulin's worries will make NHL players out of Petry or Danis immediately, but the 82-game NHL schedule should see both getting plenty of work in the show.
--
The Joey Moss goes tomorrow, and I think we'll get some idea right away about line combinations, powerplay sets and defensive pairings. Why? Coach Renney doesn't have time to fiddle about, this team has a game on Sunday (Moss) and then two on Tuesday. NHL training camps see these men arrive in shape, but there are still things to be ironed out and that process begins behind closed doors today.
--
Nation Radio is on the air at noon today. Among the scheduled guests:
- James Mirtle will give us a national view of this week, and we'll talk about Luke Schenn's new contract, the pressure on Ron Wilson and how the Oilers are perceived in Eastern Canada this season.
- Michael Speidel will tell us about all of these RFA contracts and the ones Oiler fans should be paying close attention to; we'll also talk about his theory on forwards versus defense and how good the Oilers blue will be this season.
- Jason Gregor will give us an update on the rookie tournament and an inside look at the early hours of this year's TC.
- Kent Wilson will join me to talk about several things, including Drew Doughty and some of the other rfa signings this week. We'll touch base on the NW division too and discuss the early training camp stories.
Line Combos for group A today: (as per Tencer)
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall - Sam Gagner - Ales Hemsky
Hunter Tremblay - Anton Lander - Ryan Keller
Darcy Hordichuk - Gilbert Brule - Lennart Petrell
Curtis Hamilton - Ryan Martindale - Cameron Abney
Chase Schaber
Ryan Whitney - Jeff Petry
Andy Sutton - Corey Potter
Kirill Tulupov - Alex Plante
Tyler Schmidt
Nikolai Khabibulin
Olivier Roy
Nice to see Renney take my advice and run 4-89-83 together.
Looks like Petrell is being given a real look at 4RW.
Welcome back hockey.
Also,
ReplyDeleteGood to see Martindale in camp. I heard he left the last rookie game with a hip pointer.
I had a hip pointer when I played football 25 years ago.
That injury can be a real bitch.
Still hurts me some days. I'm not kidding.
Interesting lines. I like Gagner with a shooter and 83, and that Brule line is interesting too (I could see that being a 4line in January when injuries hit).
ReplyDeleteA little disappointed that Lander gets 2 AHLers but you can't have everything.
Whitney-Petry might be a nice tandem.
Thanks for the list WG.
ReplyDeleteThey may be a week or two away from full contact, but it's good to see both Hemsky and Whitney out there taking part in camp.
For some reason I glossed over the D when read the lines.
ReplyDeleteVery happy to see Petry with Gilbert.
With only Petry and Gilbert being NHL ready RH Dmen, I hoped common sense would prevail.
Looks like the coach has his head on straight.
Maybe he'll actually coach to win this year.
Dammnit, meant Petry with Whitney, not Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteCountdown to a site with an edit function LT?
Is there a podcast for that radio show? Inquiring minds would like to know...
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: It's on the way! No ETA yet but I'm hopeful.
ReplyDeleteForechecker: over at ON they post the entire show after 24-48 hours. You can also go to team 1260's site and click listen live too.
My understanding is that neither Martindale or Teubert were hurt bad, and neither are expected to miss any TC time. Oilers were erring on the side of caution in a meaningless tourney, as probably they should.
ReplyDeleteBut hey isn't Brulé untradeable due to injury? Is he all better now? Does he realize that as soon as he plays a game, the Oil are going to try to trade his ass all over again?
I would be very happy to see Petry glued to Whitney's right side for the entire remainder of the year.
GROUP A
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall - Sam Gagner - Ales Hemsky
Hunter Tremblay - Anton Lander - Ryan Keller
Darcy Hordichuk - Gilbert Brule - Lennart Petrell
Curtis Hamilton - Ryan Martindale - Cameron Abney
Chase Schaber
Ryan Whitney - Jeff Petry
Andy Sutton* - Corey Potter
Kirill Tulupov - Alex Plante
Wes Vannieuwenhuizen - Tyler Schmidt
Nikolai Khabibulin
Olivier Roy
GROUP B
Ryan Smyth - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Jordan Eberle
Antti Tyrvainen - Chris VandeVelde - Teemu Hartikainen
Phillipe Cornet - Tyler Pitlick - Kristians Pelss
Tobias Reider - Colin Smith - Toni Rajala
Cam Barker - Tom Gilbert
Taylor Chorney - Colten Teubert
Johan Motin - Jeremie Blain
Martin Gernat
Devan Dubnyk
Tyler Bunz
GROUP C
Magnus Paajarvi - Shawn Horcoff - Linus Omark
Ben Eager - Eric Belanger - Ryan Jones
Josh Green - Ryan O'Marra - Brett Ferguson
Drew Czerwonka - Tanner House - Mark Arcobello
Ladislav Smid - Theo Peckham
Martin Marincin - Brandon Davidson
David Musil - Taylor Fedun
Ryan Lowery
Yann Danis
David LeNeveu
Via Tencer. If you take the top lines from each team and then the Belanger line from team C that's probably a good estimate.
LT: thanks for the list.
ReplyDeleteYour supposition about the forward lines is probably what we're looking at for opening night, barring health considerations.
Same situation for the defence: top pairing from each of the three groups. Interesting to see Barker with Gilbert. That would seem to confirm reports that they're viewing Barker as a top 4 addition, rather than a bottom pairing one.
Interesting choice of 10 with the swedes. Maybe they can teach 91 that he doesn't have to be the defensive guy on his line.
ReplyDeleteHate Barker with Gilbert. They will see tougher ice than Smid-Peckham and everyone will be calling for Gilbert to be traded again by game 10 if Barker's shitty defensive numbers continue from the last 3 years.
Peckham is the guy that gets shifted over to the right side, very interesting.
ReplyDeleteI think those top D pairings are likely to be even stickier than the Fs. And I'm not convinced Coach would keep Chorney up here over Petry, given who they're paired with.
I like what they've done by spreading out their three best veteran forwards and the six other "youngsters" which will comprise the eventual top-nine.
ReplyDeleteSmyth as the veteran mentor for RNH and Eberle makes sense. As does giving Paajarvi and Omark Horcoff as a pivot. Hall-Gagner-Hemsky just seems like as loaded a line as they can throw out there right now.
So yes, barring injury, that's probably how the top nine starts out. As for the 4th line, Eager-Belanger-Jones seems like the smart bet (with Brule and Hordichuk as the spares), but one has to wonder how long it's going to take for Hartikainen and Lander to force the issue (not to mention a darkhorse like a Petrell). My guess is "New Years".
As for the blueline - Potter getting paired with Sutton is probably good news for Potter in terms of coming out of camp as the "last guy cut/first call-up" on defense. Chorney playing with Teubert, however, is likely a sign that "the OTHER Taylor" has an uphill battle to make this team (especially considering his main competition for that one "open" blueline spot is paired with the team's best all-around D-man).
WG, I think they're gonna have to see with their own eyes what Barker can handle. He adds a physical element and his shot to Gilbert's skating, passing and positional play, so there might be some synergy there.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that defencemen seem to run a far greater risk of not developing than forwards?
ReplyDeleteIs it because playing defence is nigh impossible at NHL level for young players?
Is it because they need so much more time to develop, and yet tend to get injured thus messing up that development time?
WTF is it exactly?
Hunter: I'd say all of those things. The speed of the NHL game is just crazy, I've seen a bunch and am still slackjawed at the speeds these guys reach.
ReplyDeleteSo closing a gap might seem like a good idea, but if you guess wrong it's a bad damn day.
Forwards (especially wingers) have nowhere near the laundry list of tasks defensively that D are required to cover, Much tougher job description imo, especially with so much youth up front.
Ryan Rishaug
ReplyDeleteTSNRyanRishaug Ryan Rishaug
Ryan Whitney hasn't come back out for 2nd half of session one.
1 minute ago
Well...that was quick.
lol. Kill me. Kill me now.
ReplyDeleteAt least Petry being paired with Whitney holds hope that the Oilers keep the better player and not just the one who doesn't need to clear waivers.
ReplyDeleteIf that happens, its a new day in Oilerland.
spOILer,
I hope you are right.
To see it seems like the long standing Oiler tradition of judging young players on their draft position and not their NHL results.
I wonder if Tambellini does the same thing with his kids in school?
Tambellini: "I would like my son to be in the grade 12 honours program"
Prinicpal: "He's been a C student for the last 3 years"
Tambellini: "He graduated from junior high with honours"
Principal: "But as the course load increased on the concepts became more complex he struggled and has been a C student"
Tambellini: "So were agreed that he goes in the honours program then. Thank you."
Also,
As for Lander, after watching 91 struggle for the first 1/2+ of last year and hearing 23 saying that his time in OKC was needed, I feel really good on him being a late cut and learning the North American game in OKC.
He'll be an Oiler before the end of the season and will never look back.
Woodguy: here's a more charitable/optimistic reading on the Barker situation:
ReplyDeleteGiven Barker's draft position and his inherent physical skills, the Oilers are wise to try him in the top 4 D, especially paired with a reliable partner like Gilbert. It may only last a few games into the regular season/preseason, but the Oilers would really like to make a top-4 D out of Barker and this is as good as any a way to try that. If all he's going to amount to is a number 5-6 D with some PP upside (as the numbers tell us thus far), I don't know that they're interested in re-signing him.
It's a worthwhile gamble for the time being. If it's still going on at Christmas with poor results, then it's probably time to sharpen the pitchforks.
Cactus,
ReplyDeleteI understand it, but I'm a beliver in not putting people in positions to fail, but to succeed.
Start him on 3rd pair and move him up as he shows he can handle it. His stats for the last 3 years show he has trouble with 3rd pairing 5v5 play.
What if Tambellini was a CEO and had his eye on a kid who was a wunderkid 3 years ago:
Tambellini: "I want you to get an MBA and join our firm"
Kid: "But I failed out of my undergrad program"
Tambellini: "You showed promised coming out of high school, lets just sign you up for the MBA program regardless"
Doesn't matter what you want, its what you can actually do.
The NHL is the highest professional league on the planet. He needs to earn it.
I like the idea of taking a flier on Barker, but I hate putting him in a position that is above his established NHL ability.
Also,
Can we reverse the Whitney trade?
Gregor says Sutton not at camp since his wife just had a baby. Should be here in a week.
ReplyDeleteWhich spot does he take if you look at the ABC combos?
WG
ReplyDeleteThe two things I will be watching closely with Barker's play are how quick is he at squeezing guys to the wall, and how fast he can turn. My understanding is that Chicago traded him because he lacked in these two areas... He was too much turnstile and not enough slammed door.
I don't have great hopes, but might as well try him with the most mobile NHL Dman on the team.
Woodguy: I think SpOILer's got the right of this here. This is a good time to test Barker with some good help and see how his fundamentals are looking. Put him in the best possible situation to start with (in terms of quality of teammate) and see how that goes. There's plenty of time to bump him down the roster if the first few preseason outings are not favourable.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, given the defencemen on our roster, I think it will be difficult to truly shelter a single pairing without getting at least one other group killed. Perhaps Petry will build from his promising start last year, but if he struggles at all, his pairing can't be thrown to the wolves (even with Whitney).
This was going to be a problem based on our personnel more than our pairings.
spOILer, Cactus,
ReplyDeleteI am an Oiler fan and I truly hope Barker succeeds.
If Whitney is not ready to go to start the season, then Gilbert-Barker will see the toughs. Oy.
More likely, Renney would go back to 5-77 as they did it the most last season.
If Whitney is healthy then I like:
6-58
5-77
13-24 (Teddy Peckman listed as 24 this year)
I know 58 is in a position above his ability, but given this line up that is unavoidable, and I think he's the best bet to survive and thrive in a tough spot.
Just for the record:
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is that Pajaarvi blows everyone away this season, right from the get go.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteI like that bet.
Also,
re: Dmen vs Forward development.
I think the peak years for forward production are 22-28 and Dmen are probably best between 26-32
Like LT said, the skill set needed to be a solid D is more in the head than the body. Anticipation and knowledge of how to play the position is more important (if you have the footspeed and agility to play at the NHL level)
That's why I always say take skill in the top of the draft and trade for 24-26 year old Dmen when you have more skill players than positions available.
WG
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Petry. I'd pair him with Whitney too.
And yes the nightmare that is going to come true is who takes the toughs when Whitney gets hurt.
The reason on forward vs D development is mostly the simple fact that the best players are often either forwards to begin with or moved there later in their junior career (ala Magnus).
ReplyDeleteIf you took top forwards and top D then switched them, most forwards (esp centers) would figure things out decently quickly. The percentage would be lower the other way around.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteSince you're talking gambling...I don't lay money down on that unless I get 10-1 odds.
My "fearless" prediction is internet only.
One thing is, MPS got his bell rung bad early last season and for a Swedish teenager that's got to have a big impact given the relative lack of pure evil in Swedish hockey.
But, like anyone knows, fear and jusrisprudence are normal reactions in life to any new kind of threat. Methinks MPS was exercising those after getting his ass handed to him on a plate.
And it wasn't anything like a POS/Nilsson reaction - as he managed to come on pretty strongly toward the end of last year's, sadly pathetic Oilers season.
Having had the offseason to consider the upcoming one, and given the fact I believe he's a highly intelligent hockey player(unlike Smid who post Avery I've written off as a special needs case), well, wtf I might as well go for my gut instinct on this guy.
LMHF#1,
ReplyDeleteRespectfully disagree.
Hunter,
I agree with your bet. I like 91 to come out of the gates on fire.
Gregor's been reporting that Whitney and Hemsky were out for precautionary reasons, not a specific injury today. Not quite time to panic (yet).
ReplyDeleteAs for Paajarvi's early results, a lot will depend on how/if Renney's matching lines. They might let RNH feed on the soft competition.
Hemsky banged up? No worries, we'll just move Jones-y up the depth chart a little. Problem solved.
ReplyDelete(@Woodguy: I keed! I keed! Now that the Oilers have actually hit the ice might as well get the gallows humour out of mothballs. We're likely to need it again.)
Gregor has an article up on ON that talks about Hemsky playing today and some hits he took. Also, he reports the Whitney item (cutting practice short) was a precaution.
ReplyDeleteI stand corrected on Teubert who was forced to watch today, although no word if they're just being awfully careful or if there's really a mild concussion. Nice to see the Oil not rushing guys back though.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't sound like they took any precautions with Hemsky at all... According to Gregor he even took some contact during practice and feels great.
ReplyDeleteSO based on the lineups and the need for quick chemistry the lines shake down pretty nicely.
ReplyDeleteHall-Gagner-Hemsky
Smyth-Nuge-Eberle
MPS-Horcoff-Omark
Eager-Belanger-Jones
A vet on each line. Seems pretty balanced. My issue is the need for some tough minutes lines. None of that top line is known for defensive acumen. I expect Horcoff to roll in that second spot, with Lander or Brule with the swedes when it comes to game 10 of the year (once RNH gets sent down)
DBO: That should read IF RNH gets sent down. The odds are still in his favour to stay in the NHL all year.
ReplyDeleteThe preseason will likely give us the answer. That's what sealed the deal for Paajarvi last year.
The fact that they have Smyth and Eberle playing with Ted Nugent makes it pretty clear that they are going to give him every chance to make it and unless he is a disaster he will. Not a big surprise really but considering Phillips is the last #1 from junior to get sent back down iirc I think he's a lock to break camp with the Oilers and likely will play the season with them I think.
ReplyDelete@BDHS: Agreed RNH is a lock to break camp, not so much to play the whole year. Might as well see what he's got right off the hop in a top six/powerplay role, cuz that's what they drafted him to do. Not so keen on idea of giving him 8 minutes a night with Eager and Jones-y.
ReplyDeletebarker has draft pedigree and games played and given the roster ... is a better bet to flourish in top 4 than poetry as top 2.
ReplyDeleteWe all have a little to much confidence in poetry I think. It's funny what a little confidence will do for a guy-- maybe renney's trying to help barker out with that.
At this poi t int there career, a good game by barker and a good game bypetry yield different results with barker presumably having the higher ceiling based if nothing else on draft positions.
If we're worried about barker as top 4, why the help aren't we freaked out about poetry as top 2? That's much more worrying to me, especially if Whitney is at half speed.
My .02
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDespite the fact that I know the logic and likelihood, I don't enjoy the fact that Hopkins will likely make the team over Lander and Hartikainen despite the fact that as of right now, Lander and Hartikainen are better hockey players.
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1: Based on what?
ReplyDeleteThe day Smytty was drafted by the Oilers, his linemates Eberle and RNH were 4 and 1 years old respectively.
ReplyDeleteWonder if he feels old, or invigorated? Hopefully the later.
Bruce - I honestly didn't think anyone would dispute that as of today, Hartikainen and Lander, who are both professionals at this stage, are better than Hopkins. Doesn't mean they will be better long term of course; doesn't even mean they'll be better in the relatively short term, but I thought this was almost a given.
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1: The Oilers don't have a realistic shot at doing any real damage in the playoffs this year. So if RNH isn't on the Oilers, how do you manage that resource? Going back to junior at this point might be like walking on a treadmill -- it's not clear it'll do much for him. This season is more about "resource management" than "winning" as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeletehelenenothelen Helene Elliott tweets:
ReplyDeleteDustin Penner weighed in at Kings' camp at 242/243. he was 260 when Kings acquired him. GM Dean Lombardi says Penner has way to go but is
on the right track and has lowered body fat.
I call bullshit. There's no way he would have gotten away with playing at 260 in Edmonton or that it wouldn't have been plastered all over the blogosphere. And I doubt Renney would have let him play at that weight either.
Antti Tyrvainen - Chris VandeVelde - Teemu Hartikainen
ReplyDeleteThis line would be all kinds of fun to watch (both good and bad).
Otherwise I think those vet/young'un combos work great for the 4 lines.
It is finally starting to feel normal again.
I've just seen a trailer for the movie Moneyball. Thank Christ I didn't read the book, now I don't have to go see what is most certainly a terrible movie.
ReplyDeleteOh, bang the drum slowly, lay the sod o'er me.....
LMHF#1: I'll wait 'til I see them on the ice together. #1 OV picks tend to be ahead of the curve.
ReplyDeletedelooper - if you notice, i didn't say they shouldn't keep him. I also said i understood the logic. It's that i firmly believe teams should be built on essentially a "best player makes the team" model and this will likely violate that. It's not as glaring as other examples (Jacques over a bunch of guys over several years for instance), but it still kinda boggles me sometimes.
ReplyDeleteI've just seen a trailer for the movie Moneyball. Thank Christ I didn't read the book, now I don't have to go see what is most certainly a terrible movie.
ReplyDeleteMy husband said the same thing after watching the trailer. I don't care though, I'm still dragging him to it. The book was really good.
Dragging my husband to a baseball movie. Talk about role reversal.
Bruce: what's with the respectable new pick? Are you trying to class this place up?
ReplyDeleteThe day this stops feeling like a saloon is the day I can no longer visit!
LMHF: It really is hard to determine who's better at this stage. RNH has some truly elite skills that, if they transfer to the NHL, would put him clearly ahead of Lander and Hartikainen.
@ Regwald
ReplyDelete"Lombardi said Penner is “on the right track,” but still has a ways to go to reach optimal shape. Being in a contract year should be incentive enough for the lumbering left wing to get there.
“It feels good. It’s fun to be out here and get started after a long off-season,” said Penner, who was on a line with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams in the day’s second group.
He said his body fat was 4% lower than before — though he wouldn’t say what it had been — and said he didn’t know his weight. But he looked thinner around the face and less like he’s laboring to get going up the ice.
“I tried this new thing where I close my eyes when I step on the scale and I don’t find out until the media guide comes out,” he said. “It’s more exciting that way.
“We can have a watch party when it comes out.”
Looks like Penner is a new man. :)
Ashley: I can hardly wait to read about Mr. Jennifer Aniston saying "wait a minute boys, let's stay true to the book!"
ReplyDeleteHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHA
Ashley: If I'd said that to my wife, she would have said "ass" and left the room.
ReplyDeleteSo feel free. :-)
Good point LT. I'll likely be disappointed with the movie. At least with Mr Aniston, there will be something interesting to look at so I'm unlikely to fall asleep.
ReplyDeleteYou should read the book though. I've seen your Bill James references and the occasional mention of sabermetrics. Lewis does a great job of providing an inside look at the James' wisdom in action. Come to think of it, that is how I should have done it: movie first, book second.
Ashley: if you enjoyed Moneyball, you should check out "Scorecasting" by Moskowitz and Wertheim. They use research and statistic to analyze several "myths" in sports including home field advantage, bias in refereeing and drafting. Obviously, it's a different story than Moneyball but still really enjoyable if you're interested in sports and numbers.
ReplyDeletePut that on your list too LT. You won't regret it.
Ashley: The day my son was born--February 15, 1994--I told him the Montreal Expos were going to win the World Series and I would be a good Dad.
ReplyDeleteBud Selig took one of those promises from me. I will never read Moneyball.
http://www.whatifsports.com/mlb94/
ReplyDeletevery sad.
ReplyDeleteAlways loved the expos better than the jays..
Lowetide: Moneyball's getting good early reviews so I wouldn't jump to conclusions too quickly.
ReplyDeleteFair enough, LT. Is that a bit of baseball roto league hangover still going on or are you pissed at all of baseball because Expos went to WSH? :)
ReplyDeleteI don't watch or follow baseball myself as I find it quite dull which is why I was surprised that I enjoyed Moneyball as much as I did.
Cactus, thanks for the recommendation. I have put it on the reading list.
Ashley: Nah, just grew up an Expos fan and as I age find the fallback position is a bitter old man who has been wronged. :-)
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I just lost my way with baseball. When the Expos left I became an orphan. Nothing anyone can do about it, just the way things go. Should have stuck to whittling. :-)
LT: Moneyball would be a good read even if it was about basketball. It's more sports theory than baseball, although a good knowledge of the latter doesn't hurt.
ReplyDeleteThe day this stops feeling like a saloon is the day I can no longer visit!
Cactus: Yeah, I drink single malt, too. Deal with it.
;)
He said his body fat was 4% lower than before
ReplyDeleteThat is news.
PENNER REDUCES BODY FAT TO 96%
@Bruce
ReplyDeletePenner is about to make Tambellini look really silly.
@DSF: It's a contract year. Dustin was always bound to have a big season. Timing's wrong for it to help the Oilers, and if it happens his price point will go through the ceiling.
ReplyDeleteI'm a big Penner fan, but I understand why the trade was made. Remember, in the cap era, you don't trade a player, you just trade X years of a player. In Penner's case, X = 1.2. In exchange Oilers got two first-round defencemen with 6 and 7 RFA years to go. If either of the D prospects Oilers got develops into a player they'll come out OK.
Which is not to say that Tambellini won't take enough heat to ignite his own star once Penner gets rolling. No doubt we can count on you to heap fuel on that blaze, but I for one will just close my eyes and say "big picture" three times fast.
Bruce: you raise a good point about cap management and it's one I've been pondering since the recent signings of all those RFAs.
ReplyDeleteLet's assume for a second that the Oilers end up in a nearly-best case scenario this year: the young forwards all seem to take a big step forward, but the poor defence/goaltending keeps the team just out of the playoffs. If it's looking like Gagner and Omark (RFAs beginning in 2012) will deserve significant raises and Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi are looking for between Schenn and Tavares-esque extensions, could we see Hemsky moved at the deadline simply in a cap calculation? Or maybe Horcoff, should a willing partner be found?
It's not especially likely that the chips will fall in that way, but it'll be interesting to see how cap considerations play into player movement going forward.
@ Bruce
ReplyDeleteThe "big picture" gets old really fast.
If you and I can see Penner hitting it out of the park this season, Tambellini, who gets paid a little more than we do, should be expected to collect more than LA's fourth or fifth ranked D prospect in return for arguably his most valuable player.
If either or both of Teubert of Klefbom reach their projected potential as #3-#5 defensemen, Tambellini still loses.
6"4" power forwards are much harder to find than defenders of that ilk.
If either of the D prospects Oilers got develops into a player they'll come out OK.
ReplyDeleteThey'd better hope the Swede pans out, then, because I'm not holding my breath on Teubert.
6"4" power forwards are much harder to find than defenders of that ilk.
ReplyDelete@DSF: There'll be a 6'4 power forward on the UFA market next July 1. Finding them and keeping them are two different things entirely.
83 on the Tomatometer is not bad, but maybe I'll rent Bull Durham for the fifth time instead. Or maybe Hoosiers for the third time, or the remake, Hoop Dreams, for another engrossing popcorn feast.
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling from the gloss on this one that there's too much Seabiscuit, and not enough Good Will Hunting, Good Night and Good Luck, or The People vs. Larry Flynt in the mixture: the grainier side of people who dance to their own drummers.
What else? Frost/Nixon, Diane Keaton (any role as herself), Kinsey, Tucker if the movie hadn't failed. An Unreasonable Man from the documentary genre.
Trying to steer clear of Ed Wood, The Mosquito Coast, or Aguirre The Wrath of God, the ones who go off the rails above and beyond the call of duty.
I've always liked the kind of movie that's so gripping you completely lose track of how much you're absorbing. Traces of that come to mind with The Truman Show, Amadeus, Dr Strangelove (extremely well researched), The Colour of Money, and Contact. You almost care about shortwave radio static until the final third of the movie becomes a study in self-induced concussion. Titanic and Avatar tilt the other direction: they both mostly succeed in distracting the audience from a fairly lame plot by making you think you're absorbing great wonders. All our future xenobiologists will look back on Avatar as a turning point in their young careers.
21 also comes to mind (MIT does Vegas), but it kind of fails on other levels. Wind could have gone there (America's Cup), but pulled lame. Wind Talkers also could have gone there, but didn't. Days of Thunder has one good line "stay out of the marbles". You get five minutes of good tax advice from Shawshank Redemption, which is a good deal for eight bucks.
Nothing I like better than a slightly crazy insider who bucks convention, but America is afraid to educate.
I came across another article today on the Modernist Cuisine . A $625 cook book. He started off with a conservative print run of 6000, and it sounds like his third print run was 25000.
He wrote several pages about whether anyone would buy such an expensive cook book after all his publishers told him they wouldn't. With the wonky stuff, go big or go home.
Modernist Cuisine Excerpt
If your audience suspects for a moment they're learning something, you've lost them.
One thing I have to say is that I don't have a clue about line chemistry. Guys who can't take or make a pass are bad on all four lines. Check. That's about as far as I've figured it out. It reminds me a lot of the kind of cooking Nathan is trying to debunk. Nathan could figure out why some guys gel and other don't, unfortunately, they'd all be twins by the time he finished his study.
He's the kind of guy who breaks a few eggs in the process.
There's some nice debunking way at the bottom for any Moneyball chefs out there.
Nathan Myhrvold's method makes science of cooking
I can't think of a worthwhile sports movie off the top of my head. Plenty of enjojable distractions, but nothing meaningful.
ReplyDeleteGood Will Hunting fails though. How do you make a formula movie about being different? That logic is laughable (but common in Hollywood) and even more ironic since the subject matter is math...
Agreed on Shawshank, it's nothing but an emotional distraction, but greatly disagree on Aguirre. Aguirre is an important movie. Kinski is an important actor. I'm not really an actor guy. They're over-glorified compared to their importance to making a decent movie, IMO. But Kinski and Aguirre are important.
The good stuff is supposed to be dangerous.
Skip Mosquito Coast and watch Picnic at Hanging Rock instead.
Meh. Movies are a release, once we start using words like "important" then the point is lost.
ReplyDeleteI will say that the Truman Show was a movie that surprised me.
More movies that make a few trips to third plate in wonk heaven:
ReplyDeleteApollo 13 (in the NASA complex), Ulee's Gold (a day in the life of a taciturn beekeeper).
Histrionic slides into 2nd: Jerry Maguire, A Civil Action.
A Beautiful Mind rounds second base on a turf-tearing lope, then goes Forrest Gump into the pancake makeup finale.
The Hurricane makes second on a fielder's choice. Instead of telling you want its like to spend a year in solitary in gut-churning defiance, we get a long sequence explaining what it's like to be a movie director confronted with having to shoot this scene (does god have no mercy?) with nothing but time lapse to paper your sins.
Shine has its moments. It takes you there, but settles for a couple of rough hewn tent pegs: bathtub scene, and fade-to-black (with Lord of the Flies symbolism) effectively declaring "something really freaky must have been going on in there, but damned if I know".
Flame out on first base: Top Gun. The technical parameters of aerial combat are so intricate they make your head spin. Instead we get knotted panties saying, "I see some real genius in your flying, Maverick, but I can't say that in there." You could score, Tom, if only you tried.
Honourable mention to Master and Commander: ship in a bottle with the best sound effects ever, but you never touch a wet rope. Plus we learn the true secret of Being Charles Darwin, having a gift for the sketch pad. Also, he's handy with a saw and he's not squeemish, so artist-boy earns his keep.
Wall Street has its moments if you parse it as On the Waterfront, twenty years later; the good old boys, then and now. We soon learn that there is no such thing as too little Daryl Hanna. Adequate after a fashion, but at least a chair and whip short of playing with the big dogs. Better choices: Bette Davis (All about Eve), Kathleen Turner (Body Heat, War of the Roses), any of the chicks in Howard Hughes, Catherine Keener (Being John), and the immortal Zeta Jones, in full pixie combustion mode, any time, any place. Cripes, even Geena Davis could have pulled it off as the intern next door whose dimpled comprehension lags the crede of greed by a perpetual half step. Or Teri Garr (After Hours) if she's allowed to ruffle some Brylcreem (they probably didn't have the budget for so many hair breaks).
The whole point of Moneyball is that there actually is an engine under the glamorous hood of deceit and power, a compartment full of tricky wires and dirty hoses, if you shame yourself by rolling your sleeves up.
Back to hockey. My theme for this season is regression to the mean. As much as we expect at least one of our rookies to suffer the sophmore slump, it's actually harder than it looks to threepeat DFL, unless your ineptitude is fortified overproof against the vagaries of misfortune suffered by everyone else. I don't think this team has rightfully earned the crown of thorns of epic suck.
We're just mediocre pathetic with a horse of glass and some unfinished business between the pipes.