Oilers training camp is just around the corner, and before that happens we'll get a look at their training camp roster. Will there be any surprises? Steve Staios?
My guess is that we'll see plenty of defensemen and at least one goaltender, but the real list to pay attention to for Oiler fans will be the waiver wire.
Predictions:
- The Oilers will begin the season with 2 rookies--Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Teemu Hartikainen.
- The Oilers will begin the season wth 3 players on IR--Ryan Whitney, Nikolai Khabibulin and Gilbert Brule.
- The Oilers training camp invite list will have at least one name that will shock us. My pick? Nick Boynton.
- The Oilers will acquire a goaltender before opening night. My pick? Holtby from the Caps.
- The Oilers will have an opportunity to select a useful young player from the waiver wire but will pass on the opportunity.
- There will be three players who impress in training camp and get sent out much later than expected: David Musil, Lennert Petrell and Curtis Hamilton.
- The final pre-season cut will be Anton Lander.
- The Oilers will trade Hemsky on November 15, 2011--the anniversary of the Bill Guerin trade to Boston that saw Edmonton acquire the pick that turned into Hemsky at the 2001 entry draft. They'll acquire a defenseman.
LT, are you hearing things locally about Hemsky being traded or just your gut feelings. You've mentioned this quite a few times over the summer. Curious.
ReplyDeleteI think either consciously or subconsciously, LT is expecting the worst and cushioning for the blow, with hopes it doesn't happen.
ReplyDeleteAlso, to clarify from the last discussion, I forgot Barker and was referring to Colin White. We also do need some work on a definition for defensive defenceman.
Hemsky 2011-12 75 GP - 91 PTS
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers will have an opportunity to select a useful young player from the waiver wire but will pass on the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteThe sun will also rise in the East and set in the West.
@sweetjamesjones
ReplyDeleteDoes that prediction have Hemmer on the Oilers or another team?
God I hope we re-sign him. The odds of all 5 of Eberle Hall MPS Omark RNH becoming better players than Hemsky is extremely low. I can't recall any trade where someone trading their best player (Can debate its Hall now, but theres still some debate) actually won the trade. The only possibility is the Heatley for Hossa trade, even then, Kovalchuk was better.
Woops, thats my prediction for him donning the Oil silks. He will post some borderline great numbers this year, god willing he stays healthy. Long time reader, first time poster :)
ReplyDeleteLT, are you basing the Hemsky trade on a line in the sand record wise (Oilers are lagging behind in November, etc.) or do you think he is gone in any scenario?
ReplyDeleteLT: Am not sure whether to think you are being bold (two rookies on the opening night roster, Khabibulin on IR, we pickup a goalie), you're optimistic or whether you're smoking the drapes here.
ReplyDeleteI do hope you're wrong on Hemsky.
I would like to see hemmer around till the trade deadline, beyond if they're in the mix (hehe..), just so we can re-live 2006 (to an extent, with symth being back in the mix) for a good portion of the season..
ReplyDeletePast that, the oil are just clearing room.. cant keep omark on the third line forever.. is it better to trade omark than hemsky?! well, who brings back a decent return?!.. we'll see how this all plays out..
Cheers to a beaut sept..
I like the boldness of picking the date of the Hemsky trade. There are two possible outcomes to this.
ReplyDelete1. Hemsky does not get traded on that date and nobody cares or really remembers your prediction.
2. Hemsky get's traded on that date an you replace that psychic octopus as the greatest prognosticator that ever lived.
btw - is it still a shock if Nick Boynton is invited to camp - because your predicting it removes the shock value? I think you just invented the self-failing prediction!
Dear Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteWhat is this Waiver Wire you speak of ?
I thought this was a one way street in which all the also ran teams fleece us teams with strong prospects.
Signed,
Steve Tambellini
Trading Hemsky helps us how??? He's the closest thing we have to an elite player and he actually wants to be here. Given Tambo's track record re: trades, this is a depressing prediction. I hope you're wrong LT.
ReplyDeleteI think either consciously or subconsciously, LT is expecting the worst and cushioning for the blow, with hopes it doesn't happen.
ReplyDeleteLT's been cushioning for the blow of losing Smid for years.
I think either consciously or subconsciously, LT is expecting the worst and cushioning for the blow, with hopes it doesn't happen.
ReplyDeleteLT's been cushioning for the blow of losing Smid for years.
LT's been making these trade predictions for a long time. Just looking at last year's... well he isn't someone I'd put money on.
1 - The Oilers will start the season with 6 rookies. I'll even supply the names: Theo Peckham, Taylor Hall, Magnus Pääjärvi, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Ryan O'Marra. Linus and O'Marra both went down, although Linus did deserve to stay up.
2 - The Oilers will trade Sheldon Souray before opening night. My guess is the Rangers, but there are other teams badly in need of help on defense too. A western option? Dallas. Either way, the Oilers will get a bad contract in return. Well, Big Sexy made it to Dallas, but we got nothing for him (is that a plus or a minus? can't tell).
3 - The Oilers will invite at least one surprise name to training camp. My guess? Former Oiler draft pick Doug Lynch. Not even a little interesting here.
4 - Opening night D pairings will shock you. Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Vandermeer, Foster and ????? with Peckham in the press box. Wreck'em played 17:34 with all the other names up there and was +2 on the night.
5 - The last name cut before opening night? Jeff Deslauriers. Nope, that honour goes to one of Alex Giroux or Linus Omark, with Reddox and Shawn Belle as trailers.
6 - Jason Strudwick will retire at the end of training camp, taking on a coaching role. Not even this year is he coaching. Yet.
7 - Tom Renney will drive many Oiler fans crazy with his systems and emphasis on disciplined play. Not even a little. Lots of crazy, but because of the 'development' of youth and very little in the way of tactics. to win games.
If I were putting money on Hemsky's future, I'd bet there is a deadline deal in place on that date, and that in a game in January, Hemsky is concussed and lost for the season, and is then resigned by the Oilers for a rediculously cheap 2-year deal, with some nice bonuses for gp each year.
Honestly I hope he is traded - he deserves to play for a team that might win something, and takes better care of its players. I'd love to see him in the SE and just kill the stats.
Trading Hemsky helps us how??? He's the closest thing we have to an elite player and he actually wants to be here.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any basis for saying that?
The sun will also rise in the East and set in the West.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers get a bad rap for not using the waiver wire around here. Why?
There are probably 10 players presently playing (at the most) that have been claimed on waivers that amounted to anything and the Oilers have one - Jones.
Was anyone picked off the waiver wire last year that was useful? Anyone that wasn't claimed that turned out to be the diamond in the rough?
Anyone on waivers a better option than Lander, VDV, Hartikanen, Tuebert, Fedun et al are likely to be by midseason?
Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the Oilers claim someone good, if they are there. But the list of useful players likely to be of any major help in the short term or longterm is likely pretty short.
I'd say Grabner's 34 goals last year were useful.
ReplyDeleteJordan,
ReplyDeleteNo offense but LT got the one about Renney and his emphasis on systems largely right. There was one obvious example, the failed diamond on the penalty kill. All 4 man penalty kills occasionally rotate through a diamond, some coaches use it extensively. Renney didn't have the horses and it bombed, but it was a great example of his love of systems. It is complicated, protects a team that is weak in the slots, and when it works drives the other team nuts. In this case it just drove the fans crazy, which was what LT predicted.
Renney was doing that sort of stuff from time to time all season. That would include his having the D aggressively attack the puck carrier in the corner (there were times I seriously thought he had told both D to go out and whatever they did to not be in front of the net) and having the center drop deep. Our centers weren't up to the job most nights. Guys like Belanger and Lander might lead to him doing it even more.
On the other hand we did reduce our shots against by 119 over the 2009-2010. That reduced our goals against somewhat (12). Based on Renney's history you would expect that big reduction in shots, since it is what he does. There will probably be a similar drop again this year. His motto is, "the system is your friend".
With more veterans I think you will see Renney use far more systems and training camp will probably be as much a tutorial as anything else.
Ducey.
ReplyDeleteThe big whiff on the waiver wire was Bryzgalov in my opinion. Perhaps there was some tension because of the SCF run but I would of liked to see some action on him.
But other than that I don't see to many errors.
Bryzgalov was in Nov 2007 and the Oilers had Roli and Garon that year. Probably reasonable to pass on him at the time.
ReplyDeleteGrabner was in retrospect a missed opportunity but I am not sure how he would have fit with a team already trying to break in HOPE and find ice for Hemsky, Penner and Gagner.
Oh, and I forgot the Oilers other big waiver claim - SMac.
I believe that Phoenix was ahead of us in the waiver order when Bryzgalov was claimed, so we never had a shot at him.
ReplyDeleteWhether we actually put in a claim or not, I don't know.
LT, you mentioned who you think will impress during training camp but on the flip side, who do you think will disappoint and not live up to expectations?
ReplyDeleteDan the Man: Anybody's guess, I imagine someone had fun instead of working hard this summer but these NHL players work their nuts off before TC anymore.
ReplyDeleteI think RNH has a chance to disappoint, if people approach his making the roster as a done deal.
@Steve Smith: I don't have any references for you, but on the blogosphere it has been mentioned that he is personally invested in Edmonton (has a girlfriend), and in the media he has said all the right things about wanting to help the team win as the young guys mature. Can I read his mind? No, but on the face of it there is at least a chance he would re-sign.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDucey, I guess your right, I was just hoping for some brave moves by the Oilers back then since we all knew Roli was not going to stick around after that season and Garon was still a big ?.
ReplyDeleteCommonfan14.
It is quite difficult to go back to a specific date and see various stats (I really wish the NHL would open up better access to database) but I found the following that shows the Oilers were ahead of Phoenix at the time of the waiver wire.
"The waiver order is based on percentage of points (points divided by possible points), at the time of Bryzgalov’s waiving the order was as follows: Washington, Buffalo, Edmonton and, his ultimate destination, Phoenix."
http://www.faceoff-factor.com/7nhl/657/a-daffy-idea-about-a-departed-duck
Blogger lefse80 said...
ReplyDelete"@Steve Smith: I don't have any references for you, but on the blogosphere it has been mentioned that he is personally invested in Edmonton (has a girlfriend), and in the media he has said all the right things about wanting to help the team win as the young guys mature."
You can have my girl but don't touch my hat. - Lyle Lovett
ASkoreyko:
ReplyDeleteYeah, I couldn't find any great sources either, but a ton of sketchy ones with the order that all had Phoenix ahead of Edmonton. Didn't see the one you found.