The Edmonton Oilers are Taylor Hall's team. That may change--it could become Hall and RNH's team--but any thought that the Oilers will curtail Hall's powerplay time and pass it to Ryan Smyth should be dismissed immediately.
The Oilers enter training camp with a roster that looks set, but has many, many opportunities for the department of youth. Can Ales Hemsky, Gilbert Brule, Ryan Whitney and Nikolai Khabibulin stay healthy long enough to satisfy the coaching staff? At what point does Jeff Petry poke a hole in the "top 6" everyone keeps lauding?
The answer: Not long, baby. Not long at all.
I'm very surprised that so many people think this training camp has no stories. There are stories everywhere!
- What in hell do the Oilers do if Khabibulin gets hurt or is ineffective?
- How long before the first injury on defense?
- Why are there so many forwards?
The Oilers have not released their training camp roster yet, it was supposed to be 67 men deep. I believe the 67 names below are correct. The Oilers haven't released the list yet. Never change, Oilers. Never change.
GOAL
- Devan Dubnyk: Big man played well in his rookie season and has earned the chance to be the starter. Coach Renney has stated that Khabibulin enters TC as the starter, but it's a matter of DD's consistency versus NK's age and injuries. My guess is Dubnyk plays 40-50 games.
- Nikolai Khabibulin: He's coming off a pretty bad year in every way and one suspects NK will arrive determined. The problem is that he hasn't been terribly effective even when healthy and the veteran has a lot of miles on him. He's at the stage of his career where relying on him is not a good idea, but sometimes old goalies surprise. My guess is that he suffers an injury sometime before Christmas.
- Yann Danis: If they had an "agent places player in ideal scenario" award this might be the winner next spring. The Oilers plan to enter the season with the NK-DD duo and that could fold like a cheap suit, leaving Danis as the only real option for callup. Amazing opportunity.
- David LeNeveu: I expect he'll play way more than the average AHL backup and there's a chance he sees NHL time. Lots of airline tickets for goalies this season.
- Olivier Roy: With the signing by OKC of David LeNeveu it seems natural for Roy to start his pro career in Stockton. He's an interesting prospect and someone to keep your eye on this season, but his chances of playing in the NHL season are very low.
- Tyler Bunz: Kid shot lights out in Penticton and looks poised for an outstanding year. Medicine Hat, quick start, world juniors, and this time next season a better number on this depth chart.
- Ryan Whitney: Whitney is an actual NHL defenseman, and though we can't expect a half-season like 10-11 he should be a quality player for this team when able.
- Tom Gilbert: Despite much of the fanbase wishing he would go away, Gilbert is a key member of the blue. He'll play heavy minutes at evens, powerplay and penalty-kill, and probably with a partner who has fewer than 150 games NHL experience.
- Cam Barker: New hire should get a good opportunity to show his stuff, especially early in the season. Hopefully we'll read stories in training camp about Barker arriving in great shape, being among the most fit players on the roster and see a determined defender through pre-season. He was a draft day star, so this isn't his last chance Texaco but it is probably his last good chance and last big contract (should he fail).
- Ladislav Smid: Smid is now at a point where NHL experience becomes a major plus and has in fact shown some nice things in the last two seasons. He'll be a key player on defense this season, if he can stay healthy and become just a little more consistent it will make a difference to the GA total.
- Theo Peckham: It could be a big year for the him. Peckham played quite a bit in elevated air this past season and survived. He's miles from flourishing but if thrust into the role again it'll be interesting to see if there's improvement. Many have suggested he's merely a depth defender, but if he can play evens and penalty-kill in important situations we're talking about something else again.
- Andy Sutton: I have him in a 5-6 role, but also wonder if coach Renney might put the two new hires (Sutton-Barker) together in hopes of seeing them develop as a top 4 pairing. It's possible, and we know Sutton will be a major PK player for the Oilers based on past seasons.
- Taylor Chorney: We know the Oilers value this player and we know he is eligible for waivers. A guess would be that if Jeff Petry outperforms during pre-season (certainly possible) the Oilers see if they can make a deal. It could go the way of Rob Schremp (exposure and losing player) or Theo Peckham (keeping player on roster) and we have to allow for injury to one of the starting 6 too.
- Jeff Petry: A fine young prospect from the Prendergast draft era, he showed very well in the NHL last season. I keep trying to find a way to put him on the opening night roster and would bet he forces his way. Manna from heaven if he is as good as he looks early.
- Corey Potter: We've talked about this at length, but Potter has a huge opportunity with the Oilers. Even if he gets sent down after pre-season, he should be one of the early callup options. From the Larry Mavety prospect family, and his opportunity is somewhat similar to the one enjoyed by Yann Danis.
- Colten Teubert: There is an element of the Oiler fanbase that will seek to bury him because of the way he go to Edmonton, but I'd encourage you to make up your own mind. Effective defensive defensemen aren't sexy, but you sure as hell know when your team doesn't have any. We don't know if Teubert will ever be an effective DD or even if has an NHL career ahead of him, but the window of opportunity opens starting now.
- Alex Plante: Played well in OKC but probably lost ground on the depth chart because of Teubert's acquisition and Petry's move up the depth chart. Plante's ability to play the game and be a physical force seem established, but his mobility is going to hurt him. You never know, but it's my guess that Plante won't be in the mix next fall.
- Johan Motin: He's going to have a tough time staying in OKC if everyone stays healthy and plays well. OKC's coach is the same guy as last year and coach Nelson used Motin as an extra often--and the organization sent him to Stockton for a time. Needs a strong season in 11-12 to keep ahead of all these other kids.
- Taylor Fedun: Listed at the bottom of the OKC depth chart (Barons have signed AHL veteran Bryan Helmer and he will play) but it could be a quick jump up the list. Fedun has a nice range of skills and is an older new pro. I'd give him a 50/50 chance to play in the NHL this season, well behind Petry, Potter and about even with Teubert and Plante.
- Kirill Tulupov: Crazy defender from Russia.
- Martin Marincin: Although signed to a pro contract and despite being AHL eligible, there's a very good chance Marincin returns to junior for his 19-year old season. Last season's first half was lights out, but things caught up to him in the WHL's second half. It's probably wise to send him back for another season in junior.
- Brandon Davidson: The opposite of Marincin, he doesn't have a contract but is 20 and might be a better pro candidate for the fall. He got a late start in hockey--making him an absolute favorite for us Larry Mavety followers--and the Oilers may decide he could benefit from another season in the WHL.
- Jeremie Blain: It'll be interesting to see how long they look at him. Blain has ability but this team is likely to flush the junior kids early, perhaps as soon as Tuesday after the doubleheader. He'll be a more interesting story next fall.
- David Musil: I really think he's going to impress at this camp. He won't make the big team, but is among the strongest junior candidates to get more playing time. Musil is a definite player to watch for Oiler fans.
- Martin Gernat: Turned heads in Penticton.
- Ryan Lowery: I thought he'd show better at the rookie tournament in Penticton, but saw him good is a dangerous way for a fan to evaluate. I'm sure the coaching staff knows what they're doing, I wonder if he gets more than one game.
- Tyler Schmidt: Had a solid showing in Penticton and I think he might be a player to follow.
- Wes Vannieuwenhuizen: Big. Interesting.
- Sam Gagner: This is a season for Gagner to establish himself as a center who can post offense while also playing against tougher competition. I can't see a scenario where Gagner doesn't get quality linemates and am looking forward to seeing how things turn out for him.
- Shawn Horcoff: He finally has some help and that should mean improved boxcars and overall performance. He's now at an age where injuries become more of a factor and I think his PP career is likely over.
- Eric Belanger: A wonderful addition. Belanger can play in all situations and will make himself useful even if he's getting 4line EV minutes. My guess is that through injury and slumps he emerges as a player who the coach relies on in all situations.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: RNH is a strong candidate to at least break camp with the Oilers and I think he'll perform well enough to stay all year. Should he stumble, the list of possible replacements is long and impressive. Anton Lander, Chris VandeVelde, Ryan O'Marra, Tanner House and others wait in the wings.
- Anton Lander: The day he was drafted Lander had a reputation as a leader and refined defensive player, and since then his offense has matured and footspeed improved. There's something happening here.
- Ryan O'Marra: A year ago I suggested O'Marra was in the mix for a big league job, inspiring snickering in the pressbox among the msm. It's hard but not impossible to create a scenario for him to play in the NHL this season (RNH sent down, Lander not quite ready, O'Marra bringing a more physical game).
- Chris VandeVelde: Believe it or not his window of opportunity with the Oilers is likely now. Although Edmonton has been poor for years at center the jobs are going to get eaten up in the next 12 months and the time is right for VV to establish himself. He has to hit above the Mendoza line, though.
- Tanner House: House has 2-way talent but faces an uphill battle similar to VandeVelde. He might be a better actual player, we'll see this season.
- Milan Kytnar: Not sure what to do with this player. His numbers suggest the Oilers have at the least an AHL calibre center, but they rarely use him in a feature role.
- Ryan Martindale: A wild card at this training camp. Could do everything from get cut immediately to sign a contract.
- Travis Ewanyk: Injury means he's toast for TC and beyond.
- Chase Schaber: I like this player, which probably means he's doomed.
- Colin Smith: Sure showed up a lot in the pictures from Penticton.
- Taylor Hall: I've projected Hall to lead the Oilers in goals and checking around the internet it looks like most feel he'll have a strong year. Hall is the franchise.
- Magnus Paajarvi: Swede has some competition for playing time on the portside both at evens and PP. A good thing--he should earn his minutes--but he'll slot into the top 9 somehow and should improve in year 2 (he'll get more playing time and better linemates).
- Ryan Smyth: Man it feels good to place his name back onto the Oiler lineup. Smyth's PP time has decreased in recent years and I think the club will need him badly at evens and PK. Either way, he was much needed and most welcome.
- Ben Eager: Back in the olden days, NHL enforcers were also hockey players (probably because 9 forwards played regular shifts and two were for injury replacement and PK). Eager is a player who from time to time may move up the depth chart. Perhaps more than any new forward this side of Ryan Smyth, Eager will change the tone and attitude of the Oilers.
- Darcy Hordichuk: A welcome addition from my pov because he's an extreme improvement in the hockey disciplines over the previous enforcer. He's not going to score 10 goals, or even 2, but Hordichuk can make and take a pass.
- Teemu Hartikainen: We can debate the wisdom of bringing in three left wingers over the summer in order to block the Finn, but the truth is he will very likely push his way onto the roster soon. It may involve Paajarvi moving over to RW after Hemsky's dealt but the day is coming for Hartikainen.
- Lennert Petrell: Power winger with speed, and he's had a lot of pro experience. Petrell could impact the NHL team and will certainly be a major item on the OKC roster. His window is short (as in right away)
- Curtis Hamilton: The great thing about OKC this season is that there should be some roadblocks for kids like Hamilton, meaning playing time isn't given away. One thing worth noting: Hamilton's timeline is more likely to resemble Chimera's as opposed to someone like Eberle. I think we should be thrilled if he can post a 20-goal season in OKC.
- Josh Green: Big forward back for another turn, he'd qualify under the also-ran category but should help the Barons more than Gregory Stewart did a year ago.
- Phil Cornett: Along with Motin, I think he's a candidate to get lost in the flood this season. A big offensive push would help a lot.
- Hunter Tremblay: CIS players are always going to be underrated when turning pro because there are so few examples in NHL history (Dave Dunn did NOT begin a trend). Still, he's a scorer in a world where they are rare and the early signs have been positive. If he can play RW things might go easier for him.
- Drew Czerwonka: He's been impressive since his draft day.
- Tobias Rieder: I don't know how much time he'll have to show his stuff this fall.
- Brett Ferguson: Prospect with offensive skills, suspect he'll sign a pro contract and the Oilers might try to sign him in OKC with an eye to sending him to Stockton.
- Ales Hemsky: Heading into his walk year and very unlikely to finish 11-12 as an Oiler. We haven't heard a word about contract talks and he's well older than the cluster. I still hold out hope that Edmonton will sign him as "the Oilers Alfredsson" but it's a distant bell for the organization. They're just waiting for everyone to see him healthy before pulling the trigger.
- Jordan Eberle: Emerging talent who had a wonderful rookie season. Eberle is a smart player who should become a 2-way talent on the top 2 lines of a very good NHL team. Jordan Eberle as the new Ryan Smyth? He's a heart and soul guy and already a fan favorite.
- Linus Omark: Oh doctor. This young man is to the Oilers what Cliff Johnson and John Mayberry were to the Houston Astros in the early 1970's. The lesson is you better know what you have before flushing it or 5 years from now you're going to have Art Howe at first base while the guys you drafted are beating hell out of the ball in other towns. Omark is a huge test for the Oilers and Steve Tambellini. Here's hoping the organization gives him a complete season in a suitable role.
- Ryan Jones: He's in tough, he really is. Jones not only has Hemsky, Eberle and Omark ahead of him (it's worse on LW), but Hartikainen is going to do impressive things in camp and the coach is going to notice. I think he'll find a role on the 4line as an energy player and be used as a penalty-killer. He's about to get lost in the flood of prospects.
- Gilbert Brule: He's in a terrible spot. Brule's health issues make him unlikely to be traded, and yet the coach is probably going to want to hit the ice with people he can count on. Even if he arrives at camp in great shape and performs well in pre-season finding a role may be difficult, and we don't know how the organization feels about how the trade didn't go down. At the very least there are huge questions regarding Brule's future.
- Ryan Keller: AHL scorer is a good hire for the Barons and could help out the Oilers should they need a winger during the season.
- Mark Arcobello: Had a quick trip up the depth chart and was rewarded (perhaps too quickly) with an expensive two year contract (complete with bonuses). Should be a big part of the offense.
- Antti Tyrvainen: His resume is a delight: A Finn with grit and the ability to agitate. If he can talk like Tikkanen even better! Seriously, I have no idea what they've got but the scouting report sounds fun.
- Tyler Pitlick: There's a chance he ends up in the WHL, but the Oilers are extremely high on this player and I expect he'll be a Baron this year. Some concerns about his offense and it'll be interesting to see if the organization plays him at center.
- Cameron Abney: Enforcer likely to start his pro career in Stockton.
- Toni Rajala: I've included him because Rajala is on the rookie roster but it's likely he'll return to Finland for another season. As a junior he had wicked skill and some game, seems to me he'll be a story next fall.
- Kristians Pelss: Got a push in Penticton, we'll see if the coaching staff was impressed.

LT the oilers should put your analysis of players in the program.It tells you every thing you need to know
ReplyDeleteAt the rookie games I saw Hopkins do things that the scouts raved about.Slick passes and defensive awareness that I did not expect.He also has an edge as he gave the stick to a defense in retaliation for same.If he does not make Oil it will be for spacing contracts not his build
I would bet that Harski plays RW before MPS ever does. IIRC he's done it before, whereas I don't believe Pääjarvi ever has. Considering MPS came late to the forward game, if there's a logjam at LW, I think it will be the full Finn that moves over.
ReplyDeleteLT. how in the world did you know the Dave Dunn name? I didn't think you were that old!! I went to university with him and Orest Kindrachuck.
ReplyDeleteOrest of course played for the Blades not the Huskies.
Dave Dunn? I remember him because he was so big. I'm really old. :-)
ReplyDeleteAt what point does Jeff Petry poke a hole in the "top 6" everyone keeps lauding?
ReplyDeletePeople are actually "lauding" the top 6?
laud (lôd)
tr.v. laud·ed, laud·ing, lauds
To give praise to; glorify. See Synonyms at praise.
Really?
More like toeing the party line while they hold their balls.
1) What in hell do the Oilers do if Khabibulin gets hurt or is ineffective?
Let me fix that for you:
1) What in hell do the Oilers do when Khabibulin gets hurt or is ineffective?
"Hi Mr. Denis. Up for 30 games in the NHL this year?"
"Hi Master Roy, up for 40 games in the 2nd toughest professional hockey league on the planet?"
3) Why are there so many forwards?
"Wow, we have a lot of forwards. Expect the unexpected, wanna see my rings??"
LT,
ReplyDeleteI truly feel that how the Oilers manage Omark will define the organization for a long time. Omark is a gem.
3) Why are there so many forwards?
ReplyDelete"Wow, we have a lot of forwards. Expect the unexpected, wanna see my rings??"
Perfect.
Seriously, too many forwards can be a good thing.
ReplyDeleteTrade from strength to address weakness.
The Oilers have also made noise about 3 scoring lines for a long time. They can actually plan for it this year.
Unfortunately if you are running 3 scoring lines your 4th lines needs actual NHL players to play PK and some 2nd toughs, not just "energy players" (see: Jones, Ryan)
The way I see it, the defensive responsibilities of lines 1-3 should go down as the line number goes up, then line 4 plays the toughest minutes you can give them, and the 3rd plays the gooshy softs.
But maybe that's just me.
I've always viewed the term "energy player" as a euphemism for the "can skate at an NHL level, but can't play hockey at this level, so they hit"
ReplyDeleteSee JFmuthafreakingJ
gooshy softs? So, we're playing us?
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: If RNH or Lander manages to stick with the NHL club out of camp, you might get your wish regarding the 4th line in terms of linematching, though perhaps not in terms of players.
ReplyDeleteIf RNH is in the lineup, I don't see how you can stick him on the 4th line with the likes of Eager or Jones. That either means breaking up the winger pairings that seem to be commonly assumed (Hall-Eberle, Smyth-Hemsky, Paajarvi-Omark) or playing RNH with one of those groups and slotting Belanger on the 4th line. Assuming Renney line matches, who do you send out against the Sedins? I don't like the chances of Eager-Belanger-Jones, unless the plan is for Eager to injure Henrik or Daniel.
LOTS of question marks all over that roster.
ReplyDeletemeh.
the glass half full part is that some of those question marks, like Barker, might have good answers.
i'm not going to be following the prospects, freshmen, juniors or solid-ish veterans much though .. my players of interest are Smid, Gagner, Jones, Brule and Khabibulin.
i think the following season most depends on their ability to improve or be replaced.
the Sedins typically play softish minutes and the PP. at evens, Vigneault does everything he can to shelter the Sedins behind the Kesler line.
ReplyDeleteWith Kesler gone, i think you throw Smyth, Horcoff and Hemsky right at the Sedins.
when Kesler comes back, the Oilers are screwed no matter what they do unless the Canucks are taking the night off for some reason.
LT,
ReplyDeletegooshy softs? So, we're playing us?
The D for sure.
Cactus,
If RNH makes the team I go with:
Hardest match to easiest (i.e. first line gets the Sedins)
94-10-14
Eager-Belanger-"Rosie" Haritkainen
4-89-83
91-RNH-23
Line 2 should get coached like Vigneault and the Sedins, 75% Ozone starts.
Line 4 or 2 hits the ice every time the 3rd pairing D hits the ice from the opposition.
Something like that anyhow.
Oops, meant 4-89-83 gets 75% Ozone starts, obv.
ReplyDeleteLT/WG: when Whitney's alive, I'll take our D over Colorado still. Thank God for small mercies.
ReplyDeleteWG: your lineup matches my thoughts closely. I know some people have talked about Gagner with Smyth and Hemsky but I wouldn't want to place too much defensive responsibility on Gags, given his weakness.
Before the injury parade begins, that's a solid roster of forwards.
Oh, and your Harski wish is wonderful, but unrealistic. Jones will have that slot coming out of camp.
ReplyDeleteOh, and your Harski wish is wonderful, but unrealistic. Jones will have that slot coming out of camp.
ReplyDeleteI did say if I had my way.
Having Jones on a 2 year contract isn't as bad as starting a land war in Asia.
Having Jones on a two year contract isn't as bad as building a glass house at a gravel yard either.
ReplyDeleteBeing lactose intolerant and having a wheel of Brie while chasing it with 2L of homogenized right before your wedding is dumber than having Jones on a 2 year contract.
ReplyDeleteI'm dazzled, truly dazzled. The job that MBS has done is truly truly amazing! The offensive future of this team three years down the road is awfully difficult to comprehend.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to guess that three years hence there'll be more than the odd comparison to the days of wine and roses. Age will take Smyth, Horcoff and Belanger, a trade will likely take Hemsky, Jones, Hordichuk and Brule, replaced by best defenceman the club can find. Replacing them will be,(I'm guessing, obviously,) Lander, Pitlick, RNH, Hartikainen and possibly Hamilton,Petrell, Tyrvainen, Petrell, and maybe Martindale. Too many replacements I know, someone(s) have to go.
The sooner the Oil is able to truly identify the core, the sooner they'll be able to trade for veteran help, particularly on defence. MBS, you are truly incredible!
So. With the young defencemen maturing and filling their potential, with the goalies actually becoming NHL goalies, to me it sorta looks hopeful. I know I'm drinking a bit too much of my own whiskey here, but hey! It's my whiskey. . .
Changing topics ever so slightly: LT, if/when ST manages to screw it all up, do you see MBS as qualified to be GM? Is it a job he'd take, if offered?
And one last: Good luck with the salary cap in about 3-5 years time. . .
Lumpjaw: My sense is that MBS is likely to stay in the job for awhile. He signed a three year deal recently iirc.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers will either improve soon or MBS will be talking to another GM during those three years.
jmo.
Just checking in to make sure LT's OK after those nude photos of Scarlett Johanssen made the scene:)
ReplyDeleteStaios to the Islanders:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=375958
Dennis: So far so good. :-)
ReplyDeleteI still see that this will be Eberle's team. He can be the face, the leader, the Oiler. All Hall and Hopkins then have to do is mash.
ReplyDeleteIdeal outcome: Hartikainen outplays Jones at camp, who is then dealt for a defender while his value is solid.
ReplyDeleteOiler outcome: Hartikainen outplays Jones at camp, but is demoted anyway "because".
Teemu will force his way on before long. So will Lander for that matter. Eberle-Lander is shaping a great leadership team.
I don't believe Pääjarvi ever has.
ReplyDeleteI thought it was fairly well established fact that Paajarvi has played quite a bit of RW and even had some of his most success on that side.
so if a team offer sheets Doughty for less than $7.5 million they only have to give up two first round picks and a second and a third?
ReplyDeleteI would give him $73 million over ten years. It is half a million more per year than LA. It will cost us those picks, but one high pick needs to be spent to try to get an elite dman anyways. We all know the risk of using a high pick on a dman, but we know Doughty has worked out already. It would be worth the other pick to know we have the franchise dman locked up. With Hall, RNH and Doughty we would have two elite forwards and an elite Dman, with Marincin, Klefbom, Musil and Teubert still in the pipeline. Along with all our young forwards, the extra picks wouldn't be missed as we would have a franchise dman, maybe THE franchise dman.
To me Doughty is this generations Denis Potvin and will be the best dman in the league within two years when Lidstron and Pronger join BLake and Niedermayer in the retirement column. We all saw what Pronger did for this team , imagine having an elite dman like that for ten years.
Unless he decides to challenge Sergio Momesso for "fattest hockey card picture in NHL history."
ReplyDeleteFor determining compensation for RFAs they take the average cap hit for contracts of up to five years, and for longer contracts they take the full value of the contract and divide by 5. So in oilersfan's example the calc would be $73 MM/5 = $14.6 MM = maximum compensation.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLMHF: I don't see how Jones could lose a TC battle and somehow fetch more than a bottom pairing defenceman (which we have enough of). There's a segment on the Oilers blogs that really needs to come to grips with the fact that Jones will be starting the season with the team (and likely finishing with it as well). The sooner we accept that, the better it will be.
ReplyDeleteAs for Doughty, he'll have to move on in a trade. How long before someone like Detroit pulls it off?
I think the most interesting (and frightening) thing for this year is what the decisive and deal making (snickers to self) GM does this year with all of these players.
ReplyDeleteThe one difficulty when your head scout is knocking it out of the park is not wasting the talent that has been acquired.
Not all of these players can remain in the system and not lose their value and potential. They can't all be Oilers down the road. The key is to correctly recognize who the keepers are, who the NHL able players are, and turn the rest into assets moving forward - moved in a deal, or for future draft picks that are higher than we BETTER be getting SOON.
As for the roster, it's basically set until the bodies start dropping. Steve loaded up too much for the younger guys to make the team early on, at least until (snickers while tearing up with worry) he deals some of the NHL guys.
They wanted players to have to earn their way, and that's what it looks like is going to happen.
Cactus - because it wont be so much Jones losing as Hartikainen winning. Jones' last season will have value for teams.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if it is a better bottom pair d-man, of course we need them.