It isn't exactly what you want the franchise to do, but I suspect it's built-in to the hard drive and difficult to remove. Taylor Hall may never be filthy but I think there's a hint of a mean streak in there.
NHL prediction for 11-12: 70, 32-28-60 (.857)
- So this is where all the goals are. I think he'll cover this bet, Hall should get plenty of icetime at EVs and on the PP and is a year older.
- You're projecting a lower team GF total than a year ago. No, I'm aiming higher. The forwards in my projection outscore last year's group by (I believe) 28 goals. The defense is projected a shade below a year ago but the prediction is for an increase in GF.
- How good was his rookie season? Hall had an outstanding rookie season playing on the front lines. His relCorsi led the team and he managed to finish first among Oilers in goals scored despite missing 17 games at the end of the season. His 5x5/60 number was 1.78 and that's a pretty good number for this club. And according to behind the net he faced tough opposition.
- What will help him post better numbers? A healthy season and being part of a better powerplay. I'm not certain how this should happen, but Hall as one of the trigger men working with Hemsky, Gagner, Omark and others should mean a stronger PP next year. I think the PP would have been better a year ago if everyone had stayed healthy.
- That rat fink Dorsett will get his. One of the really frustrating things about the Oilers post MacT is these roster spots devoted to knuckle draggers. As I recall, Hall and Dorsett fought and enforcers were in the building. The hope I have for Hall is that he keeps his swagger and makes opponents pay the price by scoring goals.
- Who should he play with? I think Hall/Eberle will be a mainstay with centers ranging from Gagner, Horcoff, Belanger, RNH and beyond.
- What about Smyth? It'll be tough for them to play together, although maybe they try to move Hall to center this fall. Seems like a long shot, although I do like the idea of Hall, Eberle or Paajarvi moving over to center. There are too many really good wingers currently.
- What about RNH? We'll see it early but I don't think it'll be a huge part of the 11-12 season.
- So, book it? Quite right. Joined at the hip. I would hope they bring RNH along a little slower than they did Hall.
- Who was the last Oiler draft pick to have this kind of skill? Man, that's a tough one. Arnott had a tremendous amount of natural talent, he'd be a good guess. Before that, we're talking about the boys on the bus and let's not get started on that conversation.
- He's better than Glenn Anderson. Anderson scored 30 goals as a rookie (20 years old) in a high scoring era (average team GF: 307) and Hall scored 22 as a rookie (19 years old) in a lesser scoring era (average team GF: 229). THIS coming season we can compare Hall's 20 year old season to Anderson's rookie year, but the era's of very different.
- So he's better than Anderson? Too soon to know. Hall is a first overall pick so he should be better than a lot of guys. But let's wait and see him for a little longer.
- Hall should be a better two-way player than Anderson. Well, Anderson wasn't a checker at all, he was a dynamic goal scorer. Hall should be able to do more for his team offensively (and thus keep the puck miles from his net) just by playing the game at a high level.
- Do you think the Anderson comparison is too much? Nah. People fall back on what they remember best and Anderson is a reasonable style comparison for Hall. I do think this young man will be a better player, but Glenn Anderson in his time was compared to Guy Lafleur and Rocket Richard (source: Peter Gzowski--The Game of Our Lives). It isn't like we're guaranteeing Hall will score 498 career goals or anything.
- What is he good at? A better question might be "what can't he do?" and the list isn't large. Penalty kill, he didn't have an enormous PP season as a rookie (no biggie),
- What is he good at? I think he'll eventually have a few signature plays: buddy has a wicked snapshot, when he starts finding the range it should be good for a lot of goals. He's a good skater, and when he sees daylight the kid absolutely flies. Remember that goal he scored in OT against St. Louis? Andy McDonald fell, hit his head, Whitney passed the puck and it was jailbreak. I bet it didn't take four seconds from the time Hall saw the turnover, began to wheel, caught the puck and rifled it home. It was a blur. And I'm not certain but it looked like he paused a little before shooting, and that might have been a key to the goal. Kelly Hrudey said he felt Hall "disguised his release" which is maybe a better way of putting it. The kid is a thrill a minute.
- Who is his best current comp? I'd say Tavares. Stamkos had a similar rookie season but in far fewer minutes. The Islander center isn't much older than Hall, but would be a good comparable so far for Taylor Hall.
- What is his outer marker? Don't know. We don't have enough evidence. So far, we've established that he can't play goal and isn't good enough to pull a crappy team out of the basement on his own. That isn't a lot of evidence, we need to see more.
- Could he be a two-way forward? Again, I'm not sure how much you'd want to discourage him offensively at this point. As he matures, Hall should naturally find his way without the puck and if he doesn't then you still have an exceptional player. I'm not sure "checking lessons" is a good idea for this player.
- Paajarvi cheats for defense. Well, we've talk about that and it isn't always a good thing. Let the horses run, Christ we've endured a generation of 6's and 7's why don't we let this jack become a king?
- Who would you trade him for? No one. Seriously. You know, I'm an old guy and maybe have no right to enjoy another glorious career from start to finish after all those young Oilers from the 80s, but this kid was drafted by our town, said all the right things and then did all the right things. Taylor Hall is an Edmonton Oiler and he's just getting started. I wouldn't trade it. Seriously. I'm just going to enjoy it and tell everyone under 30 they should too because God knows Taylor Hall's don't come along every year.

Taylor Hall will win the Stanley Cup for the Oilers, probably twice.
ReplyDelete"Taylor Hall will win the Stanley Cup for the Oilers, probably twice."
ReplyDeleteWe'll all drink to that.
I was saying the exact same thing (never trading Hall) to my co-workers here in Ottawa and they all laughed at me.
ReplyDeleteHall wants to be an Oiler, Hall wants to win as an Oiler and for that reason we should never trade him. The Oilers have had enough issues over the years with players spurning the city and organization, you get a talent like this kid that buys in right from the start and you never ever let him go.
Hall really reminds me of Iginla. You can't take that fight out of Jarome either. They have very similar playing styles with Hall perhaps being a bit faster. If Hall ended up like Iginla I think everyone would be very happy.
Glenn Anderson could check. Clare Drake and Tom Watt coached the 1980 Olympic team. Every player on that team learned how to check.
ReplyDeleteMike Keenan used Messier, Hawerchuk, and Anderson as a checking line in the 1987 Canada Cup.
godot: What I said was "Anderson wasn't a checker at all, he was a dynamic goal scorer."
ReplyDeleteYou're suggesting he wasn't a dynamic goal scorer?
I had too much to dream last night.
ReplyDeleteHe mentioned the other day that he's a solid 200 lbs right now. He might actually beat some guys up this year. I mean other than on the score sheet.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the Iginla comp. Their 19 year old rookie seasons were similar and if Hall has a similar career that would be sweet.
ReplyDeleteHowever, if Hall only score 32 points in his sophomore season people around here are going to freak!
I just thought the way the statement in the piece could be interpreted by some mistakenly that Anderson wasn't a complete player.
ReplyDeleteAnderson was as complete a two-way player as Datsyuk or Zetterberg.
Anderson should have had a ton more too, he's the only guy I've ever seen who could miss a net by 5 feet when he's shooting from within 4.
ReplyDeleteThis is brutally off topic but I was just shown this video that everyone should see.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkCQfHNVhKA&feature=player_embedded
Likely everyone has seen this already but me, but it made me too happy not to share.
That made my day, Tiger.
ReplyDeleteAlmost as awesome as this for all you gamblers out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EppdVuV0z8I
BTW, Hall totally rules.
ReplyDeleteThe second Gags is traded (as everyone makes it out to be inevitable) maybe I'll have to convert my jersey.
I wish I was as excited for RNH as I am for Hall.
I think Anderson was one of the few players who would get bored in a 5-2 blowout and coast the rest of the way. He was never the guy to get that 7th or 8th goal unless it was to go up 7-6 or 8-6 and put the game away.
ReplyDeleteOff topic, but Daniel Tolensky (who works for Sam Gagner's agent) tweeting some fun facts today:
ReplyDeleteOnly 59 players in history have put up more points than Gagner prior to 22 (13 are active)
also,
Only 20 players in history have played more games than Gagner prior to 22 (active - J Staal, Connolly, Marleau, Lecavalier, Dvorak, Gaborik)
also,
Only 4 players from 2006 draft have more pts than Gagner (Backstrom, Toews, Kessel & Staal) & 4 from 2005 (Crosby, Kopitar, Stastny & Ryan).
From the 2007 draft class (211 picks), Gagner is 2nd in games (291), goals (59), assists (114) & points (173) - to Jr teammate Patrick Kane.
Funny, I don't see Wellwood anywhere on those stats.
Maybe he should hire the same agent?
Happy Birthday Sam.
Not about Hall:
ReplyDeleteNot that I cheer for the Flamers in any regard.. but I live in Abbotsford (Home of the Heat...Calgary's farm team) and they traded Seabrook to get Jordan Henry. His stats from a year ago in the AHL are awesome. Is he attainable? Seems strange that he went to the KHL with the stats that he has and with the supposed "edge" that he had.
6.02 right hander Obviously something wrong?
Plus..finally, then Oilers farm team is in the same division as the Heat.
ReplyDeleteI was super pumped when my tax dollars were being spent to bring the Oil here, but the first season they were in the other conference.
This season they are in the same division! Huzzah!
Seriously, if some people want to come out to see the game and stay at my house, send me an email. bbillo@gmail.com
Id like to correct one thing with your write up LT, if you dont mind..
ReplyDeletePaajarvi cheats for defense. Well, we've talk about that and it isn't always a good thing. Let the horses run, Christ we've endured a generation of 6's and 7's why don't we let this jack become a king?
That question mark ought to be an exclamation point!..
Cheers,
(Dan - 200 lbs is not 'big' in the NHL, solid tho)
Lowetide, how are you feeling right now (everyone else too)?
ReplyDeleteSure, this team has a crappy goaltending tandem and could use 2 more top 4 d...
Speaking of 6's and 7's, we've all spend a long time pouring over the advanced math of some pretty bad hockey players at this blog. Discussions like Pouliot vs. Potulney, etc...
With players like Taylor Hall now, these types of exercises (stats), certainly seem more meaningful. He's also one hell of a player to watch play the game.
Anyway, regardless of the roster holes, I'm excited to watch the Oil this season. NHL hockey can't start soon enough.
Jay: I mentioned this earlier, but imo if the Oilers could get average (or a little above) goaltending and Hemsky can stay healthy then good things will happen.
ReplyDeleteLong term, they simply have to do something about the defense. Things may look better a year from now, the club could see men like Petry and Peckham move up the depth chart with more experience.
They still need a complete defenseman, though. A minutes eater who calms the waters and moves the puck efficiently.
Despite following the Oilers since 1993, I did not purchase an Oilers jersey until last year.
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall #4.
Taylor Hall is a very assertive individual. Boasts a healthy level of confidence. He is going to be doing some good things at the NHL level, and we are immensely lucky to have won the lottery draft in April 2010. I still remember the number of wild fist pumps (greeted with puzzled looks from siblings) I did that day when it was announced we'd be picking first overall.
Lets just hope the high ankle sprain injury last year has no long-run effects on his skating.
LT, I like the Anderson comp based on the play last year where Hall basically ate the crossbar to take it to the net, but I think Mess might be the better comparable based on Hall's size, leadership and overall game. Do you not see enough in Hall's game to compare him to Messier, or just reluctant to hang that expectation on the lad?
ReplyDeleteLong term, they simply have to do something about the defense. Things may look better a year from now, the club could see men like Petry and Peckham move up the depth chart with more experience.
ReplyDeleteThey still need a complete defenseman, though. A minutes eater who calms the waters and moves the puck efficiently.
Next year, the Oilers have a lot of options for defense, both in the UFA and RFA categories.
Myers, Tyler +$425,000; $875,000
Green, Mike » $5,000,000$5,250,000 RFA
Wideman, Dennis » $4,500,000$3,937,500 UFA
Carlson, John » EL $787,500$845,833 RFA
Carle, Matt » $3,800,000$3,437,500 UFA
Coburn, Braydon » $3,400,000$3,200,000 UFA
Del Zotto, M. » EL +$212,500 $875,000$1,087,500 RFA
Hedman, Victor » EL +$2,600,000 $900,000$3,500,000 RFA
Niskanen, Matt » $1,750,000$1,500,000 RFA
Gorges, Josh » $2,500,000$2,500,000 UFA
Gill, Hal » $2,250,000 $2,250,000 UFA
Yemelin, Alexei » EL $984,200$984,200 RFA
Subban, P.K. » EL $875,000$875,000 RFA
Franson, Cody » $800,000$800,000 RFA
Aulie, Keith » EL +$150,000 $525,000$733,333 RFA
Lashoff, Matt » $600,000$600,000 RFA
Kronwall, Niklas » $3,750,000$3,000,000 UFA
Stuart, Brad » $3,750,000$3,750,000 UFA
Karlsson, Erik » EL +$425,000 $875,000$1,300,000 RFA
Lee, Brian » $925,000$875,000 RFA
Goligoski, Alex » $2,750,000$1,833,333 RFA
Grossman, Nicklas » $1,750,000$1,625,000 UFA
Fistric, Mark » $1,250,000$1,000,000 RFA
Kulikov, Dmitri » EL +$425,000 $900,000$1,325,000 RFA
Weber, Shea » $7,500,000$7,500,000 RFA
Suter, Ryan » $3,500,000$3,500,000 UFA
McBain, Jamie » EL +$115,000 $735,000$850,000 RFA
Rozsival, Michal » $3,000,000$5,000,000 UFA
Quincey, Kyle » $3,250,000$3,125,000 RFA
Johnson, Erik » $3,000,000$2,600,000 RFA
Granted, not all of these players will be available, but even so - that's a talented and deep pool of players available.
Considering what Weber got this year, and the coming contracts for Doughty, Schenn, et. all... I suspect that many of these young players may be expecting a lot. Teams with either cap trouble, or internal caps, may have no choice but to let good defensemen go.
OT:
ReplyDeleteMoving into a different place and need to get TV installed, I've heard about Telus TV, but don't know anyone that has it. How is it, and what kind of contract do they make you sign? Shaw doesn't require a contract, correct? Although you need to buy a HD box, or HDPVR, I think?
It seems like TELUS is a bit cheaper, does anyone have any recommendations?
Also, and I'm leaning to Shaw, is there a way to order the cable and get an intro offer, or coupon or something, if you want HD channels?
Thanks for any and all help!
Without going into too much detail, go with Shaw.
ReplyDeleteIf you call their offices and ask for special signup opportunities they will tell you (it's the best way, entry point is the one place they'll spill everything).
The options may also be available at their website.
I'm not saying the D is top of the league or anything, but I don't know if it's the worst part of the club right now.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers were near the bottom of both GF and GA last season, but i think the GA number is more explainable considering the goaltending last season.
In terms of shots against per game, the Oilers were 21st last season while they were 29th in shots for per game.
ReplyDeletewell LT. Not sure if he is a great option, but the Oklahoma team has signed Leneveu (http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/8/11/2356859/barons-complete-goaltending-duo-signs-leneveu-to-ahl-deal) to an AHL deal. So you got yr wish, A vet AHL goalie to split time with Danis, and allowing Roy to go to the ECHL. He's no mvp, but he gives the BArons a better shot at competing if they call up Danis.
ReplyDeletespeeds: I'm not sure where you live and if that place has a company like MTS in Manitoba which offers TV, internet, cell service, and land lines. If you do have such an option and you are already using a company for a couple other services, you stand to get the best price long-term by bundling with the same provider. Promo deals from companies like Shaw tend to be fantastic but temporary (6 months is standard).
ReplyDeletealso for speeds:
ReplyDeleteRegarding the more "average" shots against and the terrible shots for, my question is why? I watched roughly 1/3 of the games and my memories are quick to fade of a catastrophic season like last.
My guess is because we didn't have enough team toughness.
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteI live in Airdrie and have Bell satellite.It works fine.I get both Oilers network and Flames network for free.
Quality wise they are all probably similiar and most offer close to the same channel pkgs.
One thing I would get for sure is the HD PVR.I didn't think I would use it much,now I don't know what I would do with out it.
speeds - Just make sure that you're getting the Sportsnet-Oilers channel as well as the regular Sportsnet channels. I think most providers have worked out the kinks but there was much gnashing of teeth when people couldn't watch the games last year because Sportsnet was dicking around.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds:
ReplyDeleteShitty defensemen could of course lead to spending more time in your own zone, and thus fewer shots for, no?
As for Hall... 32 goals and 60 points?
I'll take the over on both.
PDO:
ReplyDeleteIf that were the case, wouldn't it also probably lead to more shots against?
Regarding Shaw - if you're a student I highly, highly recommend calling them and ask them about their student rates. It's not advertised on their website, but it's a very very well-priced package (combines phone, Internet, TV).
ReplyDeletechici - some of Lowetide's best story pictures.
PDO says: As for Hall... 32 goals and 60 points? I'll take the over on both.
ReplyDeleteLet's not put TOO much pressure on the kid. 32 goals is pretty damn good. This season, among left wingers, only Morrow (33) and Daniel Sedin (41) had more. 32 goals is the same number as left-wingers Rick Nash, Thomas Vanek, and Alex Ovechkin (who admittedly had an off season).
I'd be happy with that number for a sophomore season. Stamkos' crazy sophomore season should be a dream, not a realistic expectation for Hall, especially since he'll likely play against the toughest competition this season when he's on the road (and maybe at home).
I have Telus, no complaints, part of the reason I went with them was I already had phone and internet.
ReplyDeleteTheir interface is a little bit different, for better and worse. Plus:
-there's a picture in picture feature when you're browsing that Shaw doesn't have, that guide is semi-transparent with the show being on full screen in the background and a corner display of what you're looking at
-it has a 'memory' of previous channels of around five, so if I'm watching the same half dozen channels I never browse for them, just use Prev CH.
Con
-they don't colour code by type of show (movie, sport, etc.) so it takes a little longer to identify things.
Both Shaw and Telus have pretty attractive 6 month start up packages, previous posters are right that whoever you pick you should bundle everything with.
I'd really appreciate it if you locals would boycott all telecommunication companies affiliated with the Oilers, unless they change their game night music and fire that entire idiotically incompetant department...there are teenagers in LA who can do a better job than they do.
ReplyDeleteSo... I was bored this morning and decided to compare Hall's rookie season to the previous first round draft picks (Tavares, Stamkos, Kane) and came across something fun (well, fun for me). In his rookie year, Tavares played all 82 games with an average TOI of exactly 18 minutes. Round numbers? Awesome! So I adjusted Stamkos, Kane, and Hall's rookie years to a Tavares Rookie Year (82 gp, 18:00 TOI).
ReplyDeleteTavares: 24g, 30a, 54pts
Hall: 27g, 25a, 52pts
Stamkos: 29g, 29a, 58pts
Kane: 21g, 50a, 71pts
Hall as a rookie seems to be a better goal-scorer than Tavares and Kane, but less so than Stamkos. As an overall point-getter though, he's closest to Tavares.
This was a long way of saying: Lowetide's right... Tavares is Hall's best current comp. Kane racked up way more assists and Stamkos had his numbers dampened by a low TOI (though Hall isn't far off the pace). For what it's worth, Tavares sophomore numbers (this last season):
79gp, 29g, 38a, 67pts.
Hall should beat that due to better offensive support (hopefully), but I'd start there as an over/under.
The sad world of comms and computers:
ReplyDeleteIt's likely your knowledge from the 90's now can't beat a high schooler.
About Pajaarvi. Swedish hockey has the LW with the defensive responsibilty, Canadian the centre.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers drafted Paj as a RW, where he says he's most comfortable. I think the Oil should play guys at the position that got them drafted - they too often don't because of the imbalances, or whatever.
Exceptions might be moving a guy like Hall to centre if it's warranted by his play and tendencies. But a lot, I would say most, guys aren't going to do that well.
Pajaarvi cheating for D I would say has a lot to do with playing LW. Move him back to RW and he'll likely naturally attack more, because that is how he has learned the game.
Given finishing is and has been his weakest aspect, he likely misses the offhand shot he had on RW like so many European wingers use.
As for Hall, he is something - the drive and will in him are amazing. If he doesn't end up at C, if it came up I might trade him (reluctantly) for Stamkos or Crosby because I think a top centre has more value than a top winger, but that's about it.
I think 32 goals is right on target for Hall, but I think in the end assists will push him into the mid-high 60s. That would be an impressive sophomore season. Eberle finishes not too far behind, I'd bet, somewhere right around 60.
ReplyDeleteTo put that in perspective, 60 points this year would have been good enough for 49th in league scoring. Tavares and Duchene were the only sophomores to make the 60-point cut this year. That is some elite talent for Hall and Eberle to be projecting into.
The team certainly seems to be shaping up long-term at the forward position. I can see Hall and Eberle being a tandem here for a long time.
Hall-Gagner-Eberle
ReplyDeleteA line I hope to watch for years to come.
With young players, you can double shift and move them around.
Can't wait to see where the Nuge fits in!
There's some potential here.
Like Lowetide says, we need help on the blue. If Sutton and Fowler stick, we've got some depth. Not too many if's to see us get a lot better this year.
I hope Tambo can keep the arena distractions from worrying this team. It is a huge problem right now, ownership might have run out of angles.
Stay @ northlands for 5 more years, then when the economy allows, let's build the Gretzky Forum downtown with our tax dollars. The City could even buy back the team (AKA Super Bowl Champion Green Bay)
Woodguy: Gagner is far from chopped liver which I've noted in comparisons against Henrik Sedin early in his career. Unfortunately, his counting numbers might play better in arbitration than his overall play justifies.
ReplyDeleteSome people out there seem to think that the appropriate comparable for Gagner is Galusha Pennypacker who made brigadier general in the U.S. Army at the age of 20, still too young to vote for his president. In Lowetide's post "Exploring the Gagner Comps" you can just see his combat swagger and men falling in line to fight behind him.
It's as if the hobbits demanded "hey, Aragorn, you take this damn ring since you actually know how to get there, and *we'll* hold the fort at Helm's Deep!"
Only then the unexpected arrival of Haldir and other reinforcements is kinda the other way around:
"I bring word from Theoden of Rohan. An alliance once existed between men and hobbits. Long ago we fought and died together."
That Theoden was a pure crowd pleaser. In a gloomy moment, he could dress the cavalry for a desperate charge against insurmountable odds quicker than a Samwise blush after bumbling into Rosie Cotton.
A three hour movie and they dress the cavalry in a jump cut. Never fails to bug my eyes out. Just where did those horses come from in gleaming trim? If Theoden hadn't later been cut down by the Witch-king of Angmar he would have made a fine GM in some cup-starved mecca of haste.
Mushrooms?
ReplyDeleteMultiple personalities can be such a bitch when you're trying to finish a blog comment...
ReplyDelete'trehog': the deadliest member of the swine family.
milismor: metric version of the popular campfire snack.
ReplyDeleteGret99zky: That was, perhaps, my favourite of all of the word verification humor I've seen so far. Gary yours was good too.
ReplyDeleteexidis: The Hockey Bible's chapter on the Oilers circa 2006 AD.
(hockey references like this are why metric versions of campfire snacks stand so easily above the crowd.)