I wonder how long Sutton will be in town. He's 36, makes 2M and is a free agent next summer. Should the Oilers need to move him before the trade deadline I don't think it'll be too difficult (although the return will no doubt improve as the dollars from the contract fall away).
NHL defensemen are always in demand.
NHL Prediction for 11-12: 44, 0-3-3 (.068)
- You don't like this guy. I like him fine, it's just that he doesn't fit this hockey club. In fact, he's the only defenseman on the roster who has zero chance to be a part of the group when they start winning.
- So that's why you want him traded? I just don't see the point of holding back Jeff Petry, or not giving Corey Potter 500 at-bats or even keeping Chorney if he earns the roster spot. Andy Sutton isn't a top pairing guy and he isn't going to help the powerplay. The one area I can see him helping is on the PK, but even then it would seem to me the club should be developing some long term solutions.
- Sutton was brought in to provide an experienced hand, an "actual NHL player." Right, but he is an end of the roster player on a team dying for a defenseman who can play the heavier minutes.
- Sutton can play the heavy minutes. Last year, he was defnitely a 5-6D. He was on the ice very little at evens (12 minutes per game) but was a strong PK option (2.5 minutes). That's a 6-7 defenseman. The Oilers have a bunch of them.
- So they need a top 4D? Well, someone who could play 16 minutes at evens and then take on those PK assignments, yes. And someone who is young enough to sign another contract and be around awhile.
- Sutton can do that, he did it in 09-10 in Ottawa. He played on two teams in 09-10, and it does look like he played 2nd pairing minutes. However, after being traded to the Sens at the deadline spring 2010, he was -7 in 18 games. I don't think there's a lot of evidence that he can play outside a defined role.
- Which is? An enforcer who can play at the back of the roster, block shots and penalty kill.
- So that has no value? It has value, but not as much for the Oilers. They need long term solutions. Sutton could be a valuable end of the roster player for a playoff bound team, a guy who could step in as needed and give his team a veteran presence. Andy Sutton and Theo Peckham play similar roles on an NHL team, I don't see the benefit of having Sutton on the roster to duplicate Peckham's skills--especially when the need is so great in other areas of the defense.
- If they wait until the deadline the Oilers might get a 2nd or 3rd rd pick. As much as Chorney looks like he won't be able to handle things, at this point I think the organization is better off seeing this thing runs its course. A 2nd or 3rd rd pick probably won't make the NHL for years. And keeping Petry on the roster would appear to be a no-brainer.
- Well, he's here now so let's talk about that. Sure. He'll be a depth pairing and take playing time away from one of Petry, Chorney or Potter.
- And he'll be the wild card for the top 4D? No, I think it's Peckham or Petry. Smid-Gilbert and Whitney-Barker with Petry and Peckham as guys who might slot in. I don't know how Sutton would slot into the top 4.
- So you're saying he can't play top 4D? I'm saying that last season in Anaheim Cam Fowler was getting killed CorsiRel and they still sent him out before Sutton.
- He could surprise you know. It is possible, although defensemen his age (and with his footpseed) are usually known for getting passed like a house on the side of the road. He could surprise, but what then? The point I'm making here is that even though the Cam Barker signing is a high risk one, if it works out then the Oilers have a legit piece of the puzzle moving forward.
- Yeah? Andy Sutton is a stopgap measure where none is needed. The Oilers already have Peckham for that role and Smid too.
- You'd rather they had spent $3M over 4 years to get Hannan? Well, we don't know the pricetag Hannan would have required to come here and that's an excellent point. You don't want to overspend on the position. But my point is that when you traded Kurtis Foster for Sutton--and knew that Peckham and Smid were also part of the top 6D--what were you thinking? It had to be more about adding toughness and a fighter over the ability to make a difference in a hockey game
- Ideally, who would the Oilers have acquired this summer for the top 4? Last season, Renney's top 4D in terms of QualComp were Gilbert, Peckham, Whitney and Smid (in that order). From what I can see, after all the summer moves, Petry and Peckham remain the best options to add to Whitney, Gilbert and Smid. Ideally, they would have added players who were more likely to address the tougher even strength minutes.

Did you have a brain fart LT? Or was Ken Sutton intentional?
ReplyDeleteLT, Why do you keep calling him "Ken"?
ReplyDeleteExcept for point number 14...
I was so confused, thought we.d signed another D!
lol. Dammit. I'm old. Thanks for the heads up. Lordy.
ReplyDeleteKen Sutton DID play for the Oilers btw.
LT,
ReplyDeleteThis is a very nice and informative review of player performance expections for the upcoming year, many thanks for the effort and good morning reading.
Here is a question: if there is already lots lots of competition for the bottom six defensemen spots and Sutton's value now is primarily as an upgrade over MacIntyre (Sutton is apparently a tough guy who can actually play a shift), is there any chance that Sutton could draw in as a 4th line forward as did Strudwick? That might keep the truculence that so many seem to prize in the line up and give ice time to the young defensemen. I have no idea how Sutton plays, however and it is not like there isn't already a log jam of 4th line wingers as well...
Jim
Jim,
ReplyDeleteIt's possible, although Sutton is very slow. I think the more likely scenario is that the Oilers play it by the books to start the year:
Whitney-Barker
Smid-Gilbert
Peckham-Sutton
Chorney
and then callup Petry and Potter as time and injuries dictate. I think Sutton will get a lot of play early because he's a new hire but really doubt he outplays Peckham and eventually the need for Petry will force the issue.
Thanks LT,
ReplyDeleteThen Sutton dresses for all games against Calgary, Vancouver and the like and out the door he goes by March...
Jim
LT, based on that projected top 6 here are their respective average number of games played over the past 3 seasons.
ReplyDeleteWhitney (55) - Barker (63)
Gilbert (81) - Smid (63)
Peckham (71) - Sutton (45)
Aside from Gilbert, and maybe Peckham (too soon to tell), each of these men has a rather lengthy history of injury. Not that it's rare to have an injury history as an NHL dman, but this shows us that there will be ample opportunity for all three of Chorney, Potter, and Petry over the course of the season. There is a decent chance that at some point this season, all three grace the same Oilers Game Sheet.
ranford4life: Yeah, I have them all in, just not certain that the defense is close to good enough at the top edges.
ReplyDeleteAdded to the goaltending, i think ST is probably in a bit of trouble as GM.
LT if you had to choose one or the other who would it be Foster or Sutton?
ReplyDeleteAfter watching Foster for a year, I pick Sutton, hands down.
Foster had a terrible, terrible year. I'd pick Sutton too, but wouldn't be surprised if Foster rebounds on the coast.
ReplyDeleteI fear that your 'trade Sutton' sentiment is this year's 'Strudwick will retire to free up a roster spot.'
ReplyDeleteIt's quite clearly the best move going forward, but unlikely to happen given what we know about this management group.
:sadface:
Yeah, I don't think it will happen but it would seem to be the best plan.
ReplyDeleteI think the comment made by ranford above is a strong one too. They'll all play.
someone a month ago went over Sutton's numbers the last few years. Last year he had a bad year, but the year before, just 15 months ago, he was THE top pairing, shutdown dman for Ottawa against Pittsburgh, and they went 7 games against Crosby, Malkin et al.
ReplyDeleteHe played more minutes than Phillips or Volchenkov, and apparently just as tough of minutes.
While on the Island he was also used in the toughest minutes, killed penalties and performed well using advanced stats.
Why is everyone assuming he can only play third pairing?
Maybe last year was an anomaly due to injury and he can still play.
LT: I keep doing the exact same thing, calling Andy Sutton "Ken". Odd, other than surname they are nothing alike.
ReplyDeleteScary thing on the injury front was hearing Whitney saying on Nation Radio the other day that he still isn't healthy and has a ways to go. That's all we @#$%^&* need. (There's my contribution to the New Civility)
NHL defensemen are always in demand.
ReplyDeleteEspeciially at the trade deadline, but the issue that needs to be examined is this: Is sutton an NHL defenseman? If Sutton is a 5-7 D man on the Oilers this year, does he actually have trade value at the deadline?
He played 40 games last year with Anaheim, and his 5v5 TOI was 7th on a team that barely made the playoffs. Corsi (adjusted for Qualcomp) was closer to the bottom -0.532 (6/9 Dmen) (relative to team mates) was dead last at -2.333 (9/9).
Numbers tell me he's not an NHL D-man for a competitive NHL team, and may not be for the Oilers.
If these numbers continue, if the Oilers can get more than a 4the for the man at the deadline, I'd be shocked. And that might be pushing his value.
The man appears to be Strudwick Redux 2.0. with less personality and more crust.
Jordan: That's kind of my take too. Bad arrows.
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteST is fine for now. There is a plan (let's hope beyond all hope it is on the mark) and winning isn't in it this year.
They want another high pick (hopefully one more only) and then they'll get serious.
This year is a development year for the good players, with some protection this time, which is warranted with such a young, small, mild mannered team.
This year they can have at least two players on the ice who definitely know what to do if anybody bugs Eberle or RNH, and will be taken seriously.
Hockey wise, not a good thing. Development wise, if you're not trying to win, not letting your future get bullied too much without a response is the correct decision for team building.
When I see a team pick up a guy like Sutton, I too immediately think of trade deadline value. I would wager that he will be in decent demand by then, if only because he is a Name Brand Defenseman. It's just too bad hockey doesn't give supplemental draft picks for guys that don't resign as they do in baseball.
ReplyDeleteIf no one wanted Vandermeer at the deadline, no one is going to want this guy.
ReplyDeleteHe replaces Vendermeer to me and I only hope he can overachieve like his predecessor.
a. I don't think this is a team looking for a high pick. I think this is a development year, first and foremost, bearing in mind that a high pick is better than a low pick.
ReplyDeleteb. Teubert seems strangely absent from the conversation. Memories of Nilsson make me think he will be more in the mix than indicated in the above comments and in LT's post on the subject.
c. Is it too much to hope that that the backlog of middling D this year is to address any injury blight and keep the kids' development on track, before getting serious next year with upgrades to the top-4?
d. I therefore think Smid/Sutton/Chorney are skating with bullseyes on their backs.
Congratsto Mr. Hilary Duff
ReplyDeleteSo instead of being saddled with Strudwick as a playing partner they are going to put Chorney with Sutton, the only guy in the NHL who is slower than Strudwick.
ReplyDeleteExcellent use of company resources.
Why are we discussing Andy Sutton? The Hockey News just proclaimed that the Oilers will be 15th in the west this upcoming season. Where's the scouting report on Nail Yakupov? :p
ReplyDeleteYeah, the Oilers are 2 short for their top 4--and that's with Achilles in the lineup. I'm no apologist for V3.2?, but this wasn't the summer to find one via free agency unfortunately.
I don't mind Sutton in the Strudwick role this season myself. They should cut bait on Chorney and Petry will play plenty with Achilles on the IR.
Have to disagree LT.
ReplyDeleteInjuries,Injuries,Injuries...especially to Oiler D.
At a minimum, the Sutton signing was a great move for depth so a Bisallion doesn't need to be called up from the Q.
I agree with the other comment that he's a much more useful replacement for Smac's role as well. How many guys has this guy injured with clean hits over the past few years? Not saying going out and injurying players should be an objective, but at least some opposition forwards might have it in the back of their minds and not skate into the Oilers zone like their going for a skate at the mall.
He also PKs which seems to be an area of the game that Oilers management has forgotten about over the past few years.
He's miles better than Struds and they couldn't risk Foster having a season even mildly resembling the one he just had.
Trade worth: NHL GMs are a funny bunch. They'll pay for a slow Dman with size and playoff experience at the deadline even if their underlying numbers aren't great.
Many reasons to like this signing.
In the "I just know someone whill give a crap about this" story of the day, according to SI.com, Sheldon Souray is now dating WWE Women's champ, Kelly Kelly.
ReplyDeleteCan't say anyone picking us 15th in the west is a shock w/our defense and goaltending.
ReplyDeleteAt some point I would think that a few of the kids/prospects will be traded - there is not room on the roster for all of them. Then we'll see some of the defense addressed.
But goaltending is a mess w/Khabibulin and we've got 2 more seasons of that contract. I'll save my comments on this for that part of LT's series.
I don't think LT's question about 3.1 (he's in a bit of trouble) is all that farfetched. Rebuild or not, 3 straight last place finishes will not be easy to survive no matter how talented the kids are.