Monday, August 15, 2011

RE 11-12: Jeff Petry

Sending down Jeff Petry this fall makes about as much sense as sending down Linus Omark did a year ago. There is no way possible to frame the issue in favor of Petry heading to OKC in September. He is not 20, he is not the 7th or 8th man on the depth chart, he is certainly not staring at a resume with blood all over it in the NHL or AHL.

Jeff Petry could make a few hockey clubs, not just the Oilers. Sending him down for any reason--Taylor Chorney's waiver issue, Andy Sutton's brick wall hits--any one you can name I own a stronger retort: he's freaking ready.

NHL Prediction for 11-12: 50, 2-10-12
  1. I thought he'd have better numbers. I think Barker, Whitney and Gilbert will get a lot of the PP time, so the offensive ability Petry has won't be in the boxcars this season.
  2. Did he do well as a rookie last season? He played well, in fact you could argue he should be considered a more suitable candidate for top 4 duties this fall than Barker. Petry faced third pairing opposition with Laddy Smid (52.6%) and Jim Vandermeer (27%) and survived it. In fact, his CorsiRel was in the top 4 range on the Oilers during his 35 games.
  3. So he won't play the tough minutes? No. I think the Oilers have Peckham clearly ahead of him in the defensive aspects of the game. Petry may play more minutes, but the top 5D in fact this season are likely to be Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Barker and Peckham.
  4. In that order? I don't think so. Barker is going to have a helluva time with it if his resume truly reflects his abilities.
  5. Is there a way Petry makes the club out of camp and plays top 4 minutes? Yes, and they both involve Ryan Whitney. First, if they pair Whitney with Petry in pre-season and there's some chemistry then there's a chance Petry makes the team and addresses the top 4 problem. It would be heaven sent if he could manage it, because it backs up the rest of the defense nicely. You could go Smid-Gilbert and then Peckham-Barker.
  6. But that won't happen? The contracts will do the coaching this fall. Petry--despite being 23--is the obvious choice for demotion because he doesn't have to clear waivers.
  7. What would be the ideal way for him to break in? Oh, I don't know maybe with a veteran NHL defenseman with some miles left to play with him? Oilers need a D mentor with Ryan Smyth's resume in the worst possible way.
  8. How much offense does he have, anyway? He went 2-10-12 on the PP in OKC, and 1-0-1 on the PK.That means he was 4-7-11 at even strength in 41 games. He could be a 20 point defenseman as soon as this season if they used him on the PP. He'll be able to move the puck efficiently by skating or passing once he calms down.
  9. You didn't used to like him. The problem with college kids is we don't see them ever, and honestly Kevin Prendergast never met a prospect who wasn't Bobby Orr. So I didn't buy into the hype, but it does appear that he's going to be an NHL hockey player.
  10. Good for KP. You bet, send five more.

28 comments:

  1. Hi LT - as you slowly but surely become part of the MSM - a great accomplishment - I can understand the need to make the blog more "vanilla". Congrats but please try to make it Häagen-Daz and not Safeway Select vanilla :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Maybe have your photos be Mike Winters cartoons?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Asia: It won't be msm. A couple of good friends of the blog are designing something, and a good buddy who used to sell radio has asked me for a chance to sell ads so we'll give that a lash.

    But it isn't going mainstream believe me. :-)

    gogliano: Mike Winters is brilliant, love to have the opportunity.

    ReplyDelete
  4. So if I could post another question by the "second personality":

    11. Earlier this season you wanted Petry to start in OKC. What changed? Just the lack of new quality additions?

    ReplyDelete
  5. whoops. Earlier this season supposed to read earlier this summer

    ReplyDelete
  6. geowal: I didn't realize he was this ready. In his last 5 games he went 0-2-2 +1 and played 20:47. He was outstanding in those 2 Vancouver games.

    That's strong.

    ReplyDelete
  7. In case you haven't seen:

    http://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/2011/08/announcement-off-to-red-line-report.html

    Very excited for him - noone could be any more deserving. Sucks that I won't be getting his unparalleled draft coverage for free any more though...

    ReplyDelete
  8. I don't know how anyone can compare Petry this year to Omark last year. Nowhere near the same situation.

    Petry got his half year in last year as did Omark. Sending Petry back this year would be like sending Omark down THIS year.

    In other words, unless he turns up to camp entitled and out-of-shape, they'd be nuts to do so. But who knows with a possessef Linda Blair running the waiver wire, what they do. Might wnt to shop Chorney, so maybe Petry gets screwed for 20 games.

    I liked Petry's game last year. I'd like to see him fire off that slapper a little more. Not surprising to see a smart rookie cheat for defnce though. He's more physical than I expected and is a very good skatet for the position. I hope he hangs around.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anybody think they might run with 8 D on the roster to start the season? It might make life easier for everyone for the short term.

    Injured reserve always seems to buy some time for teams as well before a decision is mandatory.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Petry seemed to look far better from the "seen him good" perspective than the math itself last season.

    At the same time, he got he came up at the time of the Whitney injury, so his underlying numbers weren't inflated by the Ryan Whitney experience.

    Seriously? Chorney sucks. :p The Oilers have long been loathe to risk waivers on middling prospects/non-NHL'ers, but seriously V3.1...

    If Petry can click with Whitney, then the Oilers marginal d sort of fall into place in the natural order of things with Sutton getting relief pitching duties and some press box time as the 7th d.

    It would have been nice to see a less equivocal improvement for the Oilers roster of dmen this off season.

    Short of entering a bidding war with Terrence Pegula for an Erhoff type, I'm not sure that there was an opportunity to really upgrade at d outside of that or picking up some better 5/6 dmen.

    Wow do we ever have a lot of 5/6 dmen already... :P

    ReplyDelete
  11. Colin White was on waivers a couple weeks ago-I think he would have fit nicely in our top 4..not perfect mind you(a RH shot/position would have been better) but it wouldn't have cost any assets to acquire.

    I think what you see if what you get wrt to the defense-unfortunately.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Whitney Barker
    Smid Gilbert
    Peckham Sutton
    Potter

    Look if Potter can come in and be solid then he's the one who should sit in the PB while Petry gets heavy minutes in the AHL. Petry's a dman and the AHL can still provide him with plenty of lessons on a nightly basis. Besides as first call-up he will get plenty of time in the NHL as soon as the inevitable injuries occur. Basically the AHL is Petry's pressbox for this season - better that he plays heavy minutes than sit or be used sparingly in a protected role.

    As for the rest of the lineup - Whitney, Gilbert, Smid and Peckham are keepers.

    Guys like Chorney go on waivers all the time and never get picked up. He's done nothing to make himself even remotely interesting as a guy that you would keep on your roster come hell or high water for an entire season. It's like worrying about the price you'll get for a used VCR player in an Ebay auction - the concern is misplaced because it isn't worth anything in the first place.

    Sutton is here for one year and playing him with Peckham or elsewhere gives you a very nasty presence on the ice when you need it. Cash him in at the deadline for whatever. No biggie.

    Barker is the wildcard - if he can turn it around with Whitney and show what got him drafted #3 - then we are fine in the top 4. If he doesn't then it's only a one year contract and trade - someone will give you something for him. If Barker confirms his bust status then the team should be top 4 dman shopping after Christmas as they can take on a bigger multi-year contract with the ability to send expiring contracts like Sutton and Barker the other way - basically selling cap space.

    ReplyDelete
  13. For some reason, I really think Petry will play with Whitney to start. Who knows, but I agree it would make our D fit really well. Plus, Whitney could probably help coach Petry get into the league pretty well.

    I seem to recall that a while ago Whitney once said he really like Petry's game - was it last off-season?

    Play Gilbert-Smid against the toughs some nights to give him a break and we're good to go!

    ReplyDelete
  14. It is seemingly highly unlikely that Whitney will be ready to start the season based on his recent interview.

    That should provide a window for Petry to grab a spot.

    ReplyDelete
  15. flamingpavelbure said...

    Well shit Rick Rypien is dead.

    Man.

    Had a chance a couple of weeks ago to sit down with a very connected pro scout who knew the Rypien situation very well.

    Under the circumstances, I won't reveal the details but suffice to say he was a very troubled young man that was facing some additional issues incurred while he was on his hiatus from the Canucks.

    Tough go for a young man who apparently suffered from severe clinical depression.

    Before passing judgement, please be aware that depression afflicts many and it's likely you know someone who is struggling with a very debilitating disease.

    ReplyDelete
  16. DSF: Idk how I was mocking Rypien exactly.

    It just seems a lot of very young ahtletes/ex athletes have been dieing recently.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Its tough, dealing with issues like depression, because the struggles, while internal and not physical, are no less real for all of that. If this indeed is the source/cause of Rypien's struggles in life and death, I extend my sincerest sympathies and condolences to his family. It is a sad event.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Sorry FPB...didn't mean to imply you were mocking him.

    Just a general statement on my part.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I suffered from chronicle depression for a whole grade and had to transfer schools because my grades went down the shitter. I'm aware of it. Shitty to see someone not go up again.

    ReplyDelete
  20. 'Ken Hitchcock, who is helping out the coaching staff here'

    as per Matheson, at the reds-whites game. Is he talking Oilers?

    I'm guessing this is Renney's last year. No?

    ReplyDelete
  21. A bit off topic, but some nice stats analysis about goal scoring wingers.

    Goal Analysis Alex Semin

    ReplyDelete
  22. Regwald, I think that article is interesting, but I'd be wary of applying his analytics to any sort of predictions about or own wingers (or even Semin really). To get an accurate picture you would have to compare how far below or above 1st and 2nd line wingers stray from an established level of production as they age. His sample size is far too small to take any relevant conclusions from, and include far too many 'fluke' seasons where a player operates well above their previously established level. One season for many of these players can be taken to indicate a cieling perhaps, but not necssarily an average level (and thus, whatever age they hit that cieling at is irrelevant, since they won't hit it again!).

    I am wary therefor of applying his arguments in terms of our own stable of wingers, and am not particularly worried.

    ReplyDelete
  23. What would be the ideal way for him to break in? Oh, I don't know maybe with a veteran NHL defenseman with some miles left to play with him? Oilers need a D mentor with Ryan Smyth's resume in the worst possible way.

    Steve Staios is a UFA. Does he fit that bill?

    ReplyDelete
  24. I think that by leaving depression as the illness which must not be named (Rypien, Brule, etc), it continues to marginalize it.

    When people see guys like Brule facing issues of depression it normalizes it and further emphasizes that it is an illness in the same way that colitis is.

    I understand the complex nature of this in that the afflicted person is often highly sensitive to the perceptions of others. So, its complex.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Shame about Rypien, on the outside he was one tough nut.

    To usher in the new gentile era of Lowetide's blog, I would like to wholeheartedly agree with everything DSF has posted in this thread. Ryan Whitney's continued absence would not be good in terms of the team winning, but would be good for Petry's chances of sticking around.

    The times, they are a changing.

    My word verification is "laxic."

    ReplyDelete
  26. To usher in the new gentile era of Lowetide's blog

    Well I refuse to give up the Torah, or re-attach any foreskin.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Oy, I am such a schlemiel...hah, even with spell check I am foiled in my attempts to get thing wright...

    ReplyDelete