Friday, August 12, 2011

RE 11-12: Forwards

I'm projecting the Edmonton Oilers forwards to improve by 33 goals. That's a lot of GF but it seems to me this is the season that the youngsters improve enough to have a legit impact.

Reasonable expectations seems like a pretty clear goal. Pull back the bias, the performances in short tournaments, the huge moments (good or bad) that might sway the view. It's difficult with this team, because there are some delightful bits, but I've tried to find reasonable in each case.

We have to be able to agree that reasonable expectations are right in the middle, halfway between "I knew he was in a little trouble when the guy with the gun said 'say what one more Goddam time' and "they're going to try Blair MacDonald on a line with that kid Gretzky."
Most of this stuff is pretty obvious: I take a three year average, account for age, injury and opportunity, then throw in Desjardins number where needed and then stare at the number for a time to see if it fits. That's it, that's all.
  1. Taylor Hall 70, 32-28-60
  2. Ales Hemsky 57, 17-37-54
  3. Jordan Eberle 82, 22-30-52
  4. Sam Gagner 70, 15-35-50
  5. Magnus Paajarvi 82, 20-20-40
  6. Linus Omark 70, 13-27-40
  7. Ryan Smyth 70, 18-19-37
  8. Eric Belanger 68, 13-23-36
  9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 63, 11-23-34
  10. Shawn Horcoff 62, 13-18-31
  11. Ben Eager 69, 8-8-16
  12. Teemu Hartikainen 45, 7-8-15
  13. Darcy Hordichuk 44, 0-3-3
  14. Ryan Jones 64, 5-11-16 
  15. Anton Lander 16, 1-3-4
  16. Gilbert Brule 10, 2-1-3
  17. Curtis Hamilton 10, 1-2-3
  18. Chris VandeVelde 14, 1-1-2
  19. Lennart Petrell 10, 1-1-2
I've projected the forwards for 200 goals. That's a massive increase over last season's number (167) but there's a tremendous opportunity for growth in 11-12 (offensively). I still have this team finishing below the league average from last season (229) but this should be the season they catch fire. Call them the 1977 Montreal Expos, with Ryan Smyth playing the role of Tony Perez (and no I'm not saying he's going to the HHOF).

This should be a fun winter watching the kids.
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17 comments:

  1. JfryFriday, August 12, 2011 at 8:58:00 AM MDT

    amazing to see such year over year growth, only to realize we're still 30 goals back of the league average. wow, we've been bad!

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  2. The other JohnFriday, August 12, 2011 at 9:37:00 AM MDT

    I would worry about sophomore jinx for HOPE, and just how abysmal our defense is in getting puck up to forwards. Defense has a chance to be as bad as or worst than last year. Truly hope my worst fears are unfounded

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  3. ClayFriday, August 12, 2011 at 9:49:00 AM MDT

    LT, I'm just wondering how you arrived at only 70 GP for Hall, but 82 for MPS and Eberle?

    We're talking about Gumby here. The ankle injury was a freak thing, and the fact that his ankle could bend in those directions and not break is amazing. Plus, that hellacious Memorial cup hit that he shrugged off.

    Everything I've seen suggests he's a pretty resilient guy.

    That being said, your RE posts have been very accurate over the years, and I think your list this year looks bang on.

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  4. macaotimFriday, August 12, 2011 at 10:11:00 AM MDT

    Smyth's motivated...he'll want another contract soon enough and he'll end up near the top of the list. He'll also crack 20 goals as Eberle is the kind of guy who will figure out how to bank it on off of Smitty's (fill in body part here).

    I think Smyth will end up: 7-4-15

    If those numbers don't make sense, they are goals off Smyth's stick (7), goals deflected in while lying on the ice (4) and goals banked on off his body (15)

    Book it!

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  5. ironsightFriday, August 12, 2011 at 10:13:00 AM MDT

    Great work LT. I think your estimates will be very close to reality. Obviously, if 83 stays healthy, his number will be higher, and I anticipate that a full season with real non-rookie wingers will help 89 take another step forward past 50 pts. However, I think that only one of Horcoff and Belanger is likely to break 30 pts. If RNH is given butter minutes with decent wingers, then one of Horc or Belanger will be relegated the Eager/Jones line. I do not see that as a recipe for offensive success.

    I'll be interested to see how you peg the D-men. In particular, Whitney's GP, Gilbert's 5v5 production, and Barkers PP production.

    On an unrelated note, does anyone think it's a coincidence that all three of Doughty, Schenn, and Bogosian have yet to sign with their respective teams? I suspect each of them is waiting for the other to make a move in anticipation of gaining a better comparable, especially Bogosian vs Schenn.

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  6. flamingpavelbureFriday, August 12, 2011 at 10:26:00 AM MDT

    Didn't knew you were a fan of Big Kahoona Burger.

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  7. doritograndeFriday, August 12, 2011 at 10:43:00 AM MDT

    Great list LT. I've been lurking in the background for the majority of summer but have kept up with your stuff when occasion presents itself.

    I'm curious as to who you thing among the regulars has a chance to go supernova this year in respect to the numbers you've projected. I'm more comfortable projecting Smyth at around 50 points but that's just me.

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  8. DuceyFriday, August 12, 2011 at 12:01:00 PM MDT

    LT's predictions for goals among forwards:

    2009 208 predicted 174 actual
    2010 184 predicted 167 actual
    2011 200 predicted ? actual

    I will go with 190. The kids will continue to excel but Horc and Hemmer will get injured again.

    And mullet magic will wear off quickly as fans realize that the second incarnation of Ryan Smyth is much slower, older, and less effective than the guy they fell in love with.

    There is always one guy (last year LT had Penner getting 70 pts) is a surprise disappointment - I'm guessing Smyth gets less than 25 pts.

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  9. adamjamesFriday, August 12, 2011 at 12:05:00 PM MDT

    I too have thought about the sophomore slump, but I can't imagine Hall going through any significant drought. He strikes me as the type that once he gets hot, there's not a whole lot that will stop him. At a solid 200 pounds and a respectable rookie campaign under his belt, I really don't think 35-40 goals is out to lunch.

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  10. macaotimFriday, August 12, 2011 at 12:14:00 PM MDT

    Ducey,

    I'm no Smyth apologist, but you realize he had 20+ goals last year. For some guys losing a step is the kiss of death for offence. For Smyth, unless you have evidence he has lost his grease somehow, losing a step is less vital. He's not exactly known for dancing around D-men and ripping shots past the goalie.

    I'd take the over 25 pts in Smyth's case.

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  11. spOILerFriday, August 12, 2011 at 12:50:00 PM MDT

    I can't think of another team historically where the top 3 scorers were all wingers and 6 out of the top 7.

    Either it's because it's impossible or this team is built real weird.

    I think it's a combo of both... There's no way the 3rd line wingers outscore the 2nd line C. It will be tough for them to outscore their own C, as it usually is for wingers.

    But the team is built weird. We started by drafting wingers whereas most teams start with D or C and draft wing later in their rebuild. (Because we didn't, our top forwards will be approaching UFA by the time the D is ready.)

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  12. RibsFriday, August 12, 2011 at 1:24:00 PM MDT

    Whats the deal, LT? Brownlee gets the Stu interview on Nation Radio while you're on vacation? I was looking forward to the day we got to listen to you interviewing Stu after all of the gushing that's done on this blog!

    ReplyDelete
  13. mparkattiFriday, August 12, 2011 at 1:55:00 PM MDT

    The 03-04 senators had three wingers as their top 3 scorers: hossa, alfie, havlat.

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  14. AnonymousFriday, August 12, 2011 at 3:32:00 PM MDT

    Over/under anyone?

    Here's my take:

    Hall (60) Under
    Hemsky (57) Under
    Eberle (52) Over
    Gagner (50) Under
    Paajarvi (40) Over
    Omark (40) Over
    Smyth (37) Under
    Belanger (36) Under
    Nugent-Hopkins (36) Under
    Horcoff (31) Over
    Eager (16) Over
    Hartikanen (15) Under
    Hordichuck (3) Over
    Jones (16) Under
    Lander (4) Over
    Brule (3) Over
    Hamilton (3) Under
    Vande Velde (2) Over
    Petrell (2) Under

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  15. LowetideFriday, August 12, 2011 at 4:18:00 PM MDT

    Ribs: Robin is extremely well connected as a broadcaster. I have during the first six months of the show requested specific guests (not MBS) but have been unable to secure them.

    Someone like Robin is better known to the media and would certainly be better able to secure bigger name guests.

    I have attempted to interview those bloggers/media types who are less likely to be given access to the radio, but it sounds like Robin has a great show planned.

    I think everyone should tune in!

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  16. RibsFriday, August 12, 2011 at 5:10:00 PM MDT

    I see, I see.

    Well, just tell us who isn't recognising the Lowetidian Clout and we will send our best men to roughhouse them into gear.

    You couldn't team up with Brownlee on this one?

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  17. RibsFriday, August 12, 2011 at 5:34:00 PM MDT

    Ah, you're out of town. Next time!

    ReplyDelete