An article out recently quotes Taylor Hall's opinion on the 11-12 season. It is here. Hall says “I don’t think we’re going to finish last. I honestly think the playoffs are a realistic goal for us. A lot of things are going to have to happen for that. Hopefully we can stay injury-free for a good portion of the season. I think just the overall improvement of the players from last season to this is going to be vast and we’re looking forward to it.”
The innocence of youth? Sure. But then again this young man is going to be one of the leaders of the team in very short order. You'd rather a more timid answer?
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I've projected the Oilers to improve a great deal this season. This presumes things like 50+ games for Hemsky, Whitney and several other important veterans and perhaps more importantly a quick trigger to improve the goaltending should it go south.
- 10-11 Actual GF/GA: 193-269 (-76)
- 11-12 Projected F/A: 223-247 (-24)
And with that improvement I'm picking the Oilers to finish 13th in the west, 27th overall.
What say you? Reasonable?
With the Smyth curse broken who knows?
ReplyDeleteThis years team is more complete than the previous two, the youngsters are starting to grow up and the team has less holes.
If they pull off a trade or two and bolster their defense it could make things very interesting.
I think it will be very hard to finish last again, the competition for this years Toilet Bowl will have a few contenders.
So often it comes down to goaltending and it's tough to find worse than the Oil.
ReplyDeleteI think Florida and possibly NYI are the only teams that finish lower than us. The Avs took a major step back last season and still finished ahead of us.
Last in the west. 29th overall.
It may sound crazy, but for the first time in years, I feel the Oil may be in striking distance of 8th. If the season starts off right and they are competitive in December, the team may fill some holes in January to make a push for the playoffs. A lot would have to go right though.
ReplyDeleteA goal differential of -24 would put us in the range of Columbus(-43)or Minnesota(-27)last year.They were 12th and 13th.So reasonable if we get the differential down.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised to see the Oilers finish in 11th or 12th.Nor would I be surprised if they finished 14th or 15th.
I think the bottom 6 teams in the West this year are Edmonton,Dallas,Minnesota,Phoenix,
Columbus and Colorado in no particular order.
I think a big jump is possible this year, but it's not a disaster if we're in the lottery again.
ReplyDeletePeople love to pile on Oil management for our to two straight 30th finishes, sometimes even as they praise the hell out out Tampa for their turn-around. It's worth remembering that Tampa finished 30th, 29th and 25th before jumping to 8th last year.
Nothing terribly wrong with a little more patience.
I think in early March we'll be talking about how the Oil just need to win 7 of their last 9 games...along with two teams winning no more than 4 of their last 10 games...then we'll make the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, 11th or 10th place in the West...and that's with a reasonably healthy roster.
The kids would have to grow up at an accelerated pace at both F and G and the D would have to stay healthy and/or play over their heads.
ReplyDeleteGoing forward I really like our wingers.
and I really like our wingers.
I hope I am wrong but with our D and 40 games by Khabby, I expect 13th in the West and 15 points out of 8th. Most significant improvements in a single year coincide with a change in and upgrade in goaltending. We did not touch that and expect DD will be an average NHL starter
ReplyDeleteMost recent lament by some in MSM and in comments in blogosphere is "it was injuries". We were 28-29th withiout injuries. That is, with our entire roster we were trending to bottom of the league. Now some of the kids should notiecably improve but 8th in Wst is alot of territory to make up
13th sounds about right.
ReplyDeleteBut I think pointwise it will be a closer race. It would seem like Oilers have inly 10-12 points to cover to get to playoffs till say mid to late march after which they will fall behind.
I am not saying they will compete fr playoffs, I am saying is they will be good enough to be somewhere close to fringe teams for majority of the season.
gotta love hall...for sure he has a number in his head for next year, and i'm guessing it's way higher than the REs. hopefully some of thatrubs off on samwise, who lost his confidence a long time ago.
ReplyDeleteTo make the playoff a team pretty much has to have a goal differential of zero or better.
ReplyDeleteExpecting the Oilers to erase a -76 in one year is completely unrealistic.
Smyth is in but Penner is out. The kids will improve. The 3rd and 4th lines should be better. D and G are about the same.
I say they trim 10 goals against and add 25 goals for. They will still be -40. That will be a 26th overall finish - ahead of Minni, PHX, WPG, FLA.
I pick them 6th in the West, year after year, as if driven by unspeakable forces.
ReplyDeleteFor those saying 11-13th, who are the Oil finishing ahead of in the west?
ReplyDeleteWe'll close the gap but I don't see a team that we can surpass. Calgary? Colorado? Those are both stretches, imo.
I'm picking the Oilers to finish 13th in the west,
ReplyDeleteSo I'm guessing you think that COL and MIN finish behind them? DAL maybe?
I can see them finishing ahead of COL, especially if Varlamov isn't healthy (signing a broken down Giguere to back up was terrible, but not as bad as giving up a lottery pick for Varly)
COL's best D are young and Hedja isn't was he was 3 years ago.
I'm not sold they can finish ahead of MIN though. Their GD was -27 (21st in NHL, 12th in WC)last year. They got slightly worse defensively, but better offensively.
Their goaltending duo of Backstrom and Harding are miles ahead of DD/Khabby.
I can't see it.
CLB is a wildcard to tank this year.
Their GD last year was (-43)
While they improved their D somewhat and added 1C, their goaltending could be bad.
Mason has posted a .901 for the last 2 years and who knows if he can return to his Calder winning .916 from 3 years ago.
Howson has also gambled (correctly imo) on AHL allstar Dekanich to back up Mason, and if the last two years are any idication, that rookie might get as much as 30 games.
CLB is resting their hopes on more offensive (like the Oilers), but a steady flow of pucks into their own net may be their undoing (again, like the Oilers)
Dallas might fall into the lottery too. New coaches, no Richards, poor F dept past the top 6, relying on a broken down Souray to shore up a weak D. The only bright light is Letonhen in net.
I have the Oilers finishing 14th in the WC, ahead of COL, but behind Dallas and MIN.
Dallas might challenge for 14th, but I think MIN, CLB and PHO (another favorite to drop) are too strong to be that bad.
13th is reasonable to me, and people seem to forget how bad Ottawa is going to be this year. They're a shoe-in for 30th overall.
ReplyDeletewho knows.
ReplyDeleteI think they will be in that ridiculously tight group of teams from 7-13 in the West this year into March.
Once you are in that group any nubmer of factors can move you up or down. It's too tight to pick exactly where they will finish within that group imo.
I should add that I will just be very happy to see meaningful hockey well into march!
ReplyDeleteThere are probably 6 teams in the West that are locks for the playoffs, with PNX a team that could easily fall out of it and NAS not really a lock based on anything but history (although I'm sure they'll make it in again somehow). Even ANA could have problems if Teemu retires and Hiller has any kind of vertigo recurrence.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure which of last year's non-playoff teams could come in to take a spot, but none of them look like world-beaters.
The Oil were 10-12-4 and winners of 6 of 8 when Hall buried that goal (granted, they were beating up on bad teams), then the Captain went down and the injury parade started. That could easily happen again based on the injury-prone roster that management has assembled, but you never know.
The kid isn't necessarily equal parts confident and crazy.
For those saying 11-13th, who are the Oil finishing ahead of in the west?
ReplyDeleteAs I said above, Minni and PHX.
Minni got rid of Burns and brought in whats left of Heatley. They were 26th in goals for last year and 16th in GA. I think they take big hit on the GA front without Burns. Heatley shows he was riding on Jumbo Joe's coat tails.
PHX lost Bryzgalov and now have Labarbara and Mike Smith in goal - Yuck.
But really, who knows? Many teams are a couple of key injuries away from the basement.
A lot of folks here under rating Florida.
ReplyDeleteWhile they've weakened in goal, the rest of the team has been strengthened a great deal.
Up front, they've brought in Fleishmann, Upshall, Versteeg, Kopecky, Goc, Bergenheim, Bradley, and Skille to go along with Booth and Weiss.
That's 7 potential 20 goal scorers and, of course there's a chance that Huberdeau, Bjugstad and Howden crack the lineup.
On the back end, they've added Campbell, Jovo and Gudbrandson to add to a stellar pairing of Weaver and Garrison and two young studs in Kulikov and Ellerby.
Considering they finished last season with a goal differential (-34) better than 7 teams that finished ahead of them, I don't think there is much of a chance they finish in the lottery even with a downgrade on goal.
Vokoun was solid last year but his SV% was .922 was not much above average.
If their young goalie prospect Jacob Markstrom can step up, they'll be tough to beat.
Tallon knows what he's doing although he tends to pay too much for it.
Having said that, Florida is still almost $15 million under the cap so, if it appears they can make a run at a playoff spot, Tallon should be able to sign or trade for pretty much anyone he wants.
And he certainly has never been Mr. Dithers.
I'll just point out the back-end that started the 10/11 season for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
ReplyDeleteKubina-Clark
Hedman-Jones
Lundin-Vernace
Smith
Ellis
I'll take the line on Dubnyk over either Smith or Ellis, and that defense can't be better than the Oilers current group.
Thing is, things held up for them just long enough that they addressed their two biggest holes (fairly easily with futures moving).
So basically, no, I don't consider it to be out of the realm of possibility. But those first two months are key. We stay in the picture, and maybe some of those holes get addressed midseason.
Opinion: The 2010-11 Oilers had, by far, the best cluster of rookie talent that this franchise has seen since 1980-81.
ReplyDeleteFact: The 1981-82 Oilers improved their goal differential +121.
Second opinion: Yes of course, different times, different principals. (Still) no Gretzky in this group. But one principle remains: a team with a critical mass* of young talent can turn a corner in a hurry. (* - whether Oilers actually have this critical mass is a wide open question) I think 2012-13 is more likely, but it'll happen when they're ready.
@ Ducey
ReplyDeletePHX drops for sure. They have some awful tending. But Doan and Yandle should be enough to keep them out of the basement.
Minnie I think is a fringe playoff team. Heatley has never been on coattails, but questionable work ethic. they have great goaltending and play defensively responsible game. Don't see them dropping below the Oil.
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ReplyDeleteBruce: I am here holding the football and you and Lain can take turns trying to kick it!
ReplyDelete/trying to round into early season form:)
Mark-Ryan, I count 4 solid NHL veterans that can play top 4 minutes, plus a sophomore stud in Hedman in that TB group. Any way you slice it it's a better group than the Oilers have now.
ReplyDeleteBesides Gilbert and Whitney, name another Oilers defenceman who can legitimately play top 4 minutes. You have maybe Smid and then a bunch of 6th and 7th defencemen.
Here's hoping some of the Oilers D can turn the corner, and they can shore up position during the season.
I'll have what Bruce is drinkin, because that is exactly what I'm thinkin!
ReplyDeleteIt will be nice to see Doobie play a lot and win some games this year.
With the team toughness way up, and another few veteran forwards to help our beleaguered centres Horcoff and Gagner, I'm ready to chase that playoff spot down.
The key is Whitney, Barker and Sutton playing a lot and helping our young D find their game.
Go Oilers! And love Hall's attitude. So much more fun thinking about the hockey team, and not the hockey club (aka Arena nonsense)
I'm figuring near the bottom of the league again unless the team stays healthy, the kids take a collective leap forward and they get an awful lot of luck.
ReplyDeleteIt can happen but its not likely.
As for where they finish and who they might finish ahead of nobody picked the Devils to tank last year and they did. And Philly did the same a few years back. Anything can happen - just as some teams surprise in a good way there are always a couple of clubs that fall apart unexpectedly. If the Oilers improve even a bit they'll probably pass a couple of clubs like that.
Smyth's return kickstarts the rebuild latent in Sam Gagner's eyes. Then, the 2010 crop explode en mass, just like great young teams are supposed to do.
ReplyDeleteBetcha 15 games in and am changing this tune, lol.
I think LT has me brain washed with his reasonable expectations. 12 or 13th in the west, but maybe 25 or 26th overall. Just on the cusp of a lotto pick.
ReplyDeleteshexh - LT's photos of shexh gals ...
It seems to me that the Oilers/Nordiques rebuild is over. The Oil should finish this upcoming season with around 80 points.
ReplyDeleteMaybe somebody told Hall that the Oilers got White and/or Hannan, and a half-decent goalie to replace Khabbi.
ReplyDeletePhoenix lost a top 10 NHL goalie and replaced him with Mike Smith. They also lost two very good defensive centers and penalty killers in Fiddler and Belanger. They rearely get mentioned, but I could see them not only missing the playoffs, but also finishing below the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteI still don't see the Oilers in the playoffs this year. The goaltending and defense still aren't good enough.
Uni: Mark-Ryan, I count 4 solid NHL veterans that can play top 4 minutes, plus a sophomore stud in Hedman in that TB group. Any way you slice it it's a better group than the Oilers have now.
ReplyDeleteJones and Vernace are 7's at best. Yzerman overpaid both in assets and contract to get Brewer over to kick Clark out of his top-4, because he's limited. I fail to see what makes Lundin better than Smid, which is to say borderline #4.
That was a garbage defense that got overhauled half-way through the year. At least two of the guys who started the year sat for a broken down Ohlund and Marc Andre Bergeron.
Hedman is nice, but maxed out at second pairing last year. I'm sure he'll be the guy in the near future, he just wasn't last September.
I look at Dallas's roster and cringe. I like Fiddler, but their D isn't much above Colorado's or Edmonton's for that matter. Kari Lehtonen and Andrew Raycroft? As for Minnesota, sure Heatley's regressing, but he'll have every opportunity to snipe riding Koivu's cottails with Setoguchi. Their D is a question mark depthwise, but not really inferior to the mean. I really wonder about Detroit's durability however.
ReplyDelete@Dennis: My "critical mass" is your "massive critic".
ReplyDeleteLT, what this article begs for - I was looking for it the whole time - is a comparison for improvement, year over year, in goal differential.
ReplyDeleteSince the '94 lockout and rule changes would be ideal, with a focus on the years since the last lockout.
I'm going to check to see how difficult it is to get that data, but if anyone has an easy way to get it, let me know.
60.3min/gm on average.
ReplyDeleteMVP played 44.8 games 31S/gm
Dubnyk played 34.2GM 32.3S/gm
I would love 60 games from Dub facing 31S/gm And Danis playing 22 games.
60 x 31 = 1860 shots
.916 x 1860 = 1704, 154G
154/60 = 2.56GA
22 X 31 = 682 shots
.910 x 682 = 621, 61G
61/22 = 2.77GA
PK goals against 74.
League average 52.
Ev GA 256
League Average 240
Shot reduction from 32.3 to 31 makes 256 to 246
I do not Know what Dubnyks PK GA was. but i will take my chances in the 60 games he is getting 2.56GA
with the league average being 2.63.
Goals for
Ev GF 132
League Avg 158
pp GF 44
League Avg 52
Players based on Desjardin effect and Averages for Games and production. This not best case or worst.
Eberle 23G +5G
80 games 6% growth from Junior projection curve
Horcoff 16G +6 75GM 1.7S/gm
Hall 32G +10G
Full season 20% growth
Smyth 24G 75GM +3G
Replacing penner 21G 2.2SH/gm
2.7S/gm 11.7%
Gagner 16G +1
74GM 2.25S/gm 9.8%
Hemsky 23G +9G
74 games 2.5 S/gm 12%
MP 21G +6 2.25S/gm 11.3%
playing with 3rd line players he was 11.3%
Belanger 14G +3
78GM 1.7SH/gm 10.3%
replaces Cogliano 11G
Omark 15G +10
.75PPG .25G/gm with third line players.
Jones 11G 13% -7G
Drop from 13 min TOI to 9min TOI
1.4S/gm to 1S/gm
Brule ??????
Eager 8G +4
74GM 1S/Gm 10.7%
Replacing JFJ/Stortini 4G
Rest of forwards 46 other man games -2G
If the players get there average for games played, Shooting % and have 20% less then desjardins junior projection growth we have the potential for a 48 GF gain.
Games lost is were it is at.
OK, for example, in '95-96 the Islanders were -86, but the following season they were -10 (and yet, still last place in their division in both cases.)
ReplyDeleteThe Senators went from -100 to -8, from last place in division to playoffs. From *41* points in a season to the big show.
The Stars went from -53 to +54. That's a 107 goal swing.
Granted, '95-96 was a very high scoring period, but '96-97 was among the lowest scoring seasons in recent memory.
The good news is it is a lot easier to go from -76 to zero then from zero to -76. There are still too many holes to think the kids will make the jump to respectability but I think when it comes -- my guess is 2012-2013 -- it will be a large improvement year over year.
ReplyDeleteBut they are at the stage where there is a lot more chance involved because of their thin line-up -- if Whitney and Hemsky stay healthy and the goaltending situation works out with DD shouldering 60 games or something, who knows? Unlikely, I think, but they could ride a wave of good luck to -10 or -20 GD.
obviously mean from -76 to zero than zero to +76. double error on that one.
ReplyDeleteI just don't think a 52 goal difference is "huge".
ReplyDeleteAre the Oilers likely to make the playoffs? No, not at all. The possibility exists though, and it's stranger than you'd think. I'd say the Oil have a 10-15% chance of making it in this year, especially if Khabibulin retires and Dub can continue from last year.
You guys understand that there is no one to pass puck out of our zone save Whitney and Gilbert. Like our wingers, like our prospect.
ReplyDeleteNot sold on our D or goalers.
Plus we ill suffer devastating unforseen injuries with Whitney, Hemsky and Horcoff playing 160 games between them.....who knew?
If we played in the East, I'd say sure, playoffs.
ReplyDeleteBut we don't, and those tougher teams taking advantage of our biggest weaknesses, defense and goaltending, will lead to more than a few tough losses.
With the shootout still in effect, and a bushel of dynamic scorers, I'd give us a few more points.
With the usual injuries expected in an NHL season I'd go 12th in the West, 26th in the league.
If we have a fluke year with less injuries, making up for the last 2 seasons, I'd go 10th in the West, 23rd in the league.
Well, the sad thing about this season is that even with some development from the Rookies and decent health from the Vets, 13/14 in the West and 27th in the league still sounds reasonable.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, it's not hard to imagine Whitney, Horcoff, Hemsky, each respectively missing a number of games. When Whitney's ankle/foot goes out, the season's over.
On a positive note, with some luck/better health, we might expect the Oilers to stay in range of the 8th spot a little longer than last season.
Obviously Tambo hasn't done nearly enough to address the needs at defence or in goal to seriously consider this crew able to contend for a playoff spot.
On a positive note, with some luck/better health, we might expect the Oilers to stay in range of the 8th spot a little longer than last season.
ReplyDeleteYeah, like maybe the end of October.