The Edmonton Oilers pick their forwards the same way: during prime time. In the last 10 drafts, the Oilers have called out the name of a defenseman in the top 50 seletions 8 times; this compares to 2 goalies and 14 forwards. Edmonton picks forwards in the top 50 selections just shy of 60% of the time.
The first round is even more pronounced: Since 2002 (10 drafts ago), Edmonton has performed thusly in the first round: 10 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender. That's a trend, and MBS is no different than KP: since 2008, the Oilers have taken 4 forwards and 1 defender in the first round.
All of this is a round about way of saying the Oilers are fishing for defensemen at High Noon and we shouldn't be surprised if all or most of the longshots die on the vine.
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Martin Gernat has good curb appeal. Despite being taken in the 5th round and 122nd overall--which is close to fishing in the Dead Sea for prospects--the Al Gore can't wait to tell us good things about him. Edmonton has taken some good players in past 5th rounds, guys like Jussi Markkanen, Jason Chimera, Miroslav Satan, Peter White, Shaun Van Allen, Walt Poddubny.
There are a lot of similarities in the scouting reports I've read about Gernat. He's a big, skinny kid who is an excellent, smooth skater. He's Rip Van Winkle skinny but can move the puck up effectively and is already very good at reading and reacting. Gernat does get beaten physically, but with his frame (6.05, 8 pounds 8 ounces) that shouldn't be a surprise. He'll need to eat something soon. He's confident with the puck and doesn't waste any time impressing people. The word I've heard from those who follow the Oil Kings is that Gernat is going to have a big role on the team as a rookie and he may in fact be paired with phenom Griffin Reinhart to start the season.
He has posted some impressive crooked numbers since he was 15 years old and playing for Presov in the Slovak Jr (2nd tier) league.
- Stu MacGregor: "watched Gernat a lot. He's a big guy, skates extremely well, 6'4", still quite slim, passes the puck very well. Really quite excited about what he might be able to bring. "
- MBS also said they had Gernat in their top 35 overall. I hesitate to mention it because it is the kind of thing KP used to say, but MacGregor doesn't seem to use hyperbole like a jackhammer so I'll put it in here.
Curb appeal? Does your wife watch HGTV as much as my mom does? (Which is to say, all the Goddamned time.)
ReplyDeleteThe interesting thing for me about the MBS comment is if that is indeed true, his list must of varied pretty wildly from everyone else after we picked the Son of Musil.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I wish they would just say "We feel he is a great pick for the 5th round and we are happy to have him" instead of going on about how they were lucky to acquire the kid so late. This isn't 1962 anymore, the general draft knowledge is pretty well spread, it now comes down to personal bias within your draft men.
It is like picking a financial advisor, you pick the one you like and you think will suite your needs. You didn't pick him/her because they are a savant in the market and will consistently outperform the SP500 year over year, if that happens its due to luck more than anything (and the math will prove that everytime). You make your choice and then you sink/swim with that individual.
This is a good example, imo, of why you (LT) could be bunched in with the regular MSM.. you sell hope,.. damn you for providing enough 'glimmer' for me to visualize parades.. parades on streets paved w gold..
ReplyDeleteHere's to hoping for a diamond..
Cheers,
Hard not to consider "Top 35" to be breathtaking BS. If he was in their top 35, where was, say, Travis Ewanyk? Even higher? Because you'd think you'd grab Gernat with that pick instead...
ReplyDeleteIs it possible (and perhaps more likely) that MBS meant their Top 35 defencemen, rather than their overall list?
ReplyDeleteEven that might be debatable though, unless they really saw him good. Looking at the central scouting top list, Gernat was 104 out of 139 ranked European skaters. 46 out of 63 European defenders. There were 96 North American defenders ranked, so if they were combined you'd have to think he's somewhere early in the back third - say 100th-120th out of 160 possible defenders.
Certainly good value as a 5th round pick if they are that high on him - especially given that some other scouting agencies also seemed higher on him than central scouting was. Still the 'top 35' thing sounds too much like hyperbole unless you were swinging for the fences.
Top 35. Either MBS is having some fun with his kick-ass reputation in Oilernation or he is talking crap.
ReplyDeleteKeep it real MBS. No need to make yourself appear magnificent - we know that about you already.
Great pick but c'mon... 35th?
Maybe MBS dropped his list walking through the draft floor and accidentally put the pages back in a shuffled-up order.
ReplyDeleteKatz should spring for staples next year.
I think it's 35th overall, but they clearly read their board well and plucked him much later.
ReplyDeleteI still think he's a "draft and follow" which in baseball means a team selecting a guy who could turn out if he grows 6 inches or puts on weight or magically creates another foot on his fastball.
I think he's a projection. Could mean Troy Hesketh, but at least they took him in a later round.
Curb appeal? Does your wife watch HGTV as much as my mom does? (Which is to say, all the Goddamned time.)
ReplyDeleteI try to explain to my wife that it is the equivalent of a man watching WWE for hours every day (Note - I think grown men who watch WWE are 'special'). she nods and she continues to watch someone rent an apartment. Next they will have someone cleaning their house and call it a show!
I don't think any of us know what MBS meant by 35th overall.
ReplyDeleteLT, if you've got a kid ranked 35 I don't think you gamble on the board and wait until 122 to pick him.
ReplyDeleteThere are only a couple of scenarios that I think exist, one of them was covered by it being rank amongst defencemen, the other being a shortened list based on players you know won't be around (based on rankings), i.e. Landeskog, Huberdeau, etc...
In the last 10 drafts, the Oilers have called out the name of a defenseman in the top 50 seletions 8 times; this compares to 2 goalies and 14 forwards.
ReplyDeleteCompares pretty well to a normal** 23-man roster: 2 goalies, 7/8 defencemen, 13/14 forwards.
(** - non 3-headed monster types)
Dawgbone
ReplyDeleteWe know that the Oilers have been badly burned by drafting according to their list without reference to where other teams might draft the player (Niiniimaki). We also have comments in relation to both Abney and Hesketh that they were drafted where they were in part becasue the Oilers heard other teams were interested and didn't think they would still be there a round later.
This suggests that the team drafts both based on their draft board, and on whether they think the player could be picked in a later round. I don't think it's totally implausible that Gernat was ranked 35 on their draft board but drafted after a couple of guys ranked lower than he was just because they were confident that he'd still be there late in the draft. They would have talked to both him and his coaches prior to the draft and could probably get some indication from them which other teams had shown an interest.
dowgbone - I thought the same about the shortened list, but I don't understand why you would leave the other names off. Imagine if some pick fell from 32nd and was still available at 60th and you didn't pick him because you 'thought he wouldn't be there'.
ReplyDeleteIt has to be something else...
Bruce, I was thinking the same thing. Other think I had: is the success rate of early-drafted D comparable to that of forwards? That is, do first/second round dmen bust more or less often, or at the same frequency, as forwards? Does their "type" matter?
ReplyDelete@Mike P: Before the draft we tried to address that question with a few articles at the Cult of Hockey. Results are mixed of course, but it did seem that defencemen were both more likely to bust AND more likely to take a long time to develop, a more major factor than ever under the current CBA.
ReplyDeleteOne guy I chose as an example of a bust was Cam Barker. Obviously Steve Tambellini reads my stuff cuz he went out and signed him immediately. :P