More from Stubb and Perhonen here.
Redline Report: Did not develop as we anticipated this season and overall has been a disappointment. At one point was considered one of the top two goalies in this draft, but we're really questionning his mental toughness - always seems to break down at key points of games. Gives up soft goals and doesn't come up with any big stops when the team really needs them. Has great physical attributes: tall, lean, and flexible with good reflexes. But very poor techniques. Plays way too deep in net and never challanges shooters. Overcommits on everything. Slow recovering from first saves. Goes down too early and stays down too long. Doesn't get great push off either skate. Poor puckhandler. Lacks anticipation and doesn't appear well balanced in stance. That's a lot of problems to overcome with size and athleticism.
ISS: An unbelievably talented goaltender who is still extremely raw. He is several years away from meeting his true potential but his combination of size, athleticism and strong technical style make him a can’t miss goaltending prospect. His performances this year were very up and down and the consistency issues will cast a lot of doubt on his value. Perhonen, is the Finnish word for butterfly, and Perhonen’s style fits his name.
Perhonen is a Finn, which means he'll be an instant hit with Oiler fans across the universe. Lisa McRitchie had a story on him awhile back and if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly this is a goalie with some dynamite potential who may take some time to develop.
SAMU PERHONEN IN FINNISH JR LEAGUE
- regular season: 29gp, 2.71 .922
- playoffs: 12gp, 2.44 .920
He was the third string goaltender for the Finns at the WJ's a year ago, but according to various sources he might be the starter this Christmastime. He came over for the development camp at Sherwood Park, but became ill and didn't get to show off his considerable skills.
Based on all the information I've read about him, Perhonen appears to be a goalie that scouts would have taken in a heartbeat based on physical tools. Some questions arose about his ability to perform under pressure after his U18 performance. There's a question in regard to his ability to be a big game goaltender.
Since I don't believe in that kind of thing, Perhonen would appear to be a top flight prospect whose draft number was hurt because of his performance in the tournament of small sample sizes. Beauty.
We have us a butterfly when all the talk is about Thomas and his unorthodox, just compete and stop the puck style.
ReplyDeleteI'll take an athletic goalie with size. Seems like the rest will be learned along the way.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a bust.
It's quite sad, actually.
Those two scouting reports have wildly different conclusions: "That's a lot of problems to overcome with size and athleticism" vs. "a can’t miss goaltending prospect."
ReplyDeleteTreenasOil
ReplyDeleteOilers feel Hartikainan is a key cog in the future it would have to be a really good offer, They won't deal him for Bogosain
___________
If true, just dumb on Oilers part.
Of course this is the same bikini girl that said the Oilers are willing to give up Gagner and Petry for Bogosian.
Starting to doubt this lady (or guy?)
Two things: scouting reports are by definition to saw him good or saw him bad reports. My draft day profile had a different report from redline and it was far more positive..
ReplyDeleteISS is usually the positive report, they don't get into negatives as much as redline.
For me it looks like he performed well in the Finnish junior league and didn't impress in the tournaments of small sample sizes.
I think he's probably a guy who was undervalued a little based on about 4GP in a tournament. That sounds like a recipe for a draft steal. We'll see, but this would appear to be a good bet based on where he was taken.
Stu MacGregor made this selection seem a little less "out there," that he, his scouting staff and even Oilers goalie coach Freddy Chabot were extremely excited about Perhonen.
ReplyDeletePJO: It takes about 30 seconds of internet research to debunk that character's story about being a former pornstar and now an Edmonton-based sport team "insider". It's a guy who reads the message boards and listens to Oilers lunch. Period.
ReplyDeleteLT: I agree about Perhonen completely. His stats look great outside of his performance at one tournament. Seems like an excellent choice for a guy who fell in the rankings slightly.
I want to scream at whoever that Redline scout is. Unbelievable.
ReplyDeletePerhonen had a bad U-18 tourney. Therefore - despite winning the championship in junior after a 0.920 SV% playoff peformance, he isn't a big game goaltender.
There are a lot of things I like about NHL scouting, but this overemphasis on a handful of international games to determine where a player should slot in the draft order is stupid to the point of being criminal.
LT - I know you don't believe in 'clutch' at the professional level, but the possibility of a player having some difficulty in critical big games - particularly goalies who can make or break a team - seems realistic.
ReplyDeleteJust to follow up on JW - I am not saying that the report on Perhenen is correct in suggesting that he is not a 'big game' goalie, but I am just saying that type of player could exist.
ReplyDeleteA big, flexible goalie with great reflexes but poor technique? Sounds like we're getting the chance at a do-over for Jeff Deslauriers. Except that this time, he might be developed properly. Plus he's a Finn, which is awesome.
ReplyDeleteHah. Fun report from Kirk Leudeke, immediately prior to the U-18's:
ReplyDelete"One NHL scout very familiar with him oozed about his technical excellence, mental toughness and mature game despite being a few days short of 18."
And here's Leudeke's comments (scroll through the whole series, the link leads to all of Leudeke's stuff on Perhonen)on Perhonen's game against Canada at the U-18's:
ReplyDelete"Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice."
Want to see the entirety of your game decided based on a single contest? Play European junior and play poorly vs. Canada or the USA in an international competition.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a bust.
It's quite sad, actually.
If anyone in the world can actually project the NHL future of an 18 year old goalie, then they are the first.
Meanwhile, via ESPN:
ReplyDelete"Perhonen has an solid foundation to develop and build on," says Mika Tarvainen, goaltending coach with Timra of the Swedish Elite league. "There are no real flaws to his game. He only needs to mature and get more experience and it won't surprise me if he ends up playing in the NHL."
(bolding mine)
But that's the weakness of "saw him good." Here's Kirk (who I think is an outstanding source) during the tournament:
ReplyDeleteSamu Perhonen, G- Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice. Just a poor game overall for Perhonen and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds or if backup Richard Ullberg, who was a disaster this season after coming in as the name goalie prospect coming out of Finland, gets a shot. We expect it will be Perhonen against Sweden, but he might have a short leash.
--
When you put so much importance on viewings, and I'm not suggesting Kirk did here--his report is far more balanced than the redline report I posted--it's hard to look past a poor outing on a big stage.
It's like the top prospects game. I was hoping the Oilers drafted RNH the moment I saw him send that Dougie Weight saucer to Sven Baercthi (sp?) for that game's second goal. Thank Christ I'm not the scouting director.
Saw him good. Draft him bad.
In summary:
ReplyDelete- Varying scouts disagree with Redline on Perhonen's technical quality.
- It's interesting to question the mental toughness and big-game performance of a goaltender who just won his league championship as a starter.
- All of Redline's criticisms conveniently reflect the most high-profile (in North America, anyways) game that he's played so far, a loss to Canada at the World U-18 tournament.
Were I a betting man, I'd say that international tournaments got weighted way too heavily in that particular scouting report.
Jonathan: Absolutely. Here's the other redline report (I posted it on draft day):
ReplyDeleteOne goalie who was surrounded by a lot of hype early on was Finland's Samu Perhonen. He has the excellent size and athleticism NHL scouts crave, and looks every bit the part of today's modern butterfly goalie. But he plays way too hyper a style for our liking with a lot of wasted movement. He overcommits on everything near his crease and often ends up beating himself. He also lacks any sense of anticipation for developing plays and comes up small on the big stage in important games. We suspect he'll be taken fairly high on his very projectable size/athleticism combination, but he'll require years of refining and technique work with a good goalie coach to realize his potential.
--
You can see the influence of that one tournament throughout both of their updates.
I believe math can tell us more about a player if we place them in proper context. Perhonen performed very well in his league and didn't skip a beat during the playoffs.
So, big games wouldn't appear to be a problem (playoff games being vital) and the tournaments of small sample sizes claim another victim.
Good news for the Oilers, they have a solid prospect and got him at a good number.
@ LT:
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
Also, I have to wonder if Prendergast's crew would have made this pick, given that we know international tournaments were a huge part of their process. IIRC, Prendergast preferred to have the whole crew assemble for the U-18 tourney and then he'd have multiple reports on Euro players rather than just relying on Musil or Nilsson.
''always seems to break down at key points of games. Gives up soft goals and doesn't come up with any big stops when the team really needs them''
ReplyDeleteDid I mention I do not like Redline at all?
They seem like the cliche old boys of hockey. ''CLutch, Tough''
So far has I've been rushing trough the hockey DB a million times the only thing I can say is indicative of future success for a goaltender is this:
SAVE %.
And the tougher the league, the more it translates.
(AKA: QJMHL numbers tend to translate more than WHL goalie numbers because the Q's SH% is historically very high).
Of course there will always be oddjobs like Pekka Rinne.
It's goaltending.
It's nice to see us drafting players in late rounds that have the tools and size to be really good, but haven't yet developed as far as some others.
ReplyDeleteI personally get frustrated when they draft guys that basically have almost no chance because they are so small, slow or coke machines.
To me picks like that are wasted.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a bust.
It's quite sad, actually.
This comment and the thought process behind it is what's sad actually.
Sounds like a coach-em up project for Frederic Chabot.
ReplyDeleteJonathan: Good point. I also like that the Oilers appear to have relied heavily on a goalie to get a read on things. We'll never know how high they were on the Swede but it appears Perhonen was in fact a target for them on day 2.
ReplyDeleteWow what 2 different scouting reports.
ReplyDeleteBecause he's a Finn, give him all the time in the world, lol.
At least he can say he's won something.
Jonathan: Like pre-super series scouting reports on Soviet goalie Tretiak?
ReplyDeleteWinning 16 games in may and june is no measure of a player. Small sample sizes are so wrong.
ReplyDeleteWinning 16 games in may and june is no measure of a player. Small sample sizes are so wrong.
ReplyDeleteNo, it's a measure of a team's performance. If a guy has a hot streak during that time period, it can help contribute to that team's success, but it doesn't mean a player's results could be projected forward.
Because, if it was, Fernando Pisani would have scored 50 in 2006-07.
Small sample sizes lead to "one hit wonders". Chris Kontos, Pisani, Sean Bergenheim.
ReplyDeleteHow many playoff performers coming out party result in a career exceeding their regular season output.
Some use it as a springboard and part of their progression. But most stay on the same statistical regular season point path.
So, how a playoff season can look like a breakthrough may be nothing more than small sample size.
Redline: " Plays way too deep in net and never challanges shooters. Overcommits on everything."
ReplyDeleteDoes that make any sense at all.
He doesn't challenges shooters, stays his net but somehow over-commits on everything?
That's like saying he's an undersized player but has great size at 6'2, 200 pounds.
My favorite scouting report was from some random Finn on HF:
ReplyDeleteHe's big.
He's Finnish.
He's a goalie.
He's a big Finnish goalie. What more could you want?
From Puckdaddy: Purcell agreed to a 2-year, $4.725 million deal (via Nick Kypreos) — a hefty raise from the $750,000 he made last season.
ReplyDeleteNot that he didn't deserve a raise, with career highs of 17 goals, 34 assists and 51 points in 81 games last season for the Lightning. But his real value was in the postseason: For all the chatter about Sean Bergenheim(notes) being a playoff revelation, Purcell had 17 points in 18 games during the Bolts' run to the conference finals.
So, who would you rather have Cogs or Purcell ?
Or to include Willis comparison on ON:
Blake Wheeler: Two years, $2.55 million cap hit
Andrew Cogliano: Three years, $2.39 million cap hit
Michael Frolik: Three years, $2.33 million cap hit
I would rank Cogs 4th on that list myself.
How about a poll:
ReplyDeletefans who want Cogs back
fans who don't
prediction+over/under = 7/1
Punjabi Oil said:
ReplyDeleteNot exactly a ringing endorsement.
Sounds like a bust.
It's quite sad, actually.
Whats sad is you sitting in your basement making snap judgments on a guy you have never seen play.
Its been one month since he was drafted and he is a bust already. Wow.
I'll take the opinion of the European scout, Freddy Chabot and SMB's on the goaler over yours. Chabot is the guy that had input on Bunz (and perhaps Roy) and worked with DD to a very good save % on a crappy team.
You can't teach size and athleticism but you can teach the rest. And the ability to handle big games tends to come with maturity.
Traktor just crushed it, I'm still laughing at that scouting report: big Finnish goalie.
ReplyDeletePoor kid missed the entire development camp though. Sure hope the Oilers managed to get him some time with Chabot afterwards to develop a training/development plan for him.
loved this comment from puckdaddy about Cogs:
ReplyDelete"The Ducks and newly-acquired center Andrew Cogliano will avoid arbitration after agreeing Tuesday on a three-year contract worth $7.17 million."
Now, is there money left over for a winger that can win a faceoff for him?
With the shift in goaltending towards positional/percentage play as oppossed to relying on reflexes, I am wondering whether we should be looking at goaltending drafts in the way we do for skaters at the combine.
ReplyDeleteA "poor" result may simply be a sign that they have more room for improvement. The consistent assessment is that the physical tools are all there but that the areas that need work are things that can be taught. That is encouraging to me.
Redline report for Marek Schwarz (drafted 2004, round 1, 17th - St.Louis)
ReplyDeleteExceptional quickness side-to-side and down-to-up. Phenomenal agility and flexibility, and never gives up on a play. Leg quickness makes him difficult to beat down low. Able to steal games by himself. Calm under pressure - gives teammates confidence. Anticipates and reads plays well. Good glove hand. Maintains focus and follows the puck very well in heavy traffic. Superb athleticism and sound position-ing. Plays with an economy of motion and lets the puck come to him. Clutch player has the ability to make big saves at key moments. Not big at 5-11, but covers the net well. A real battler with competitive spirit. Angles shots off to corners. Poor stickhandling gets him into trouble. Also has a tendency to play too deep in net and occasionally will over-commit. But is extremely acrobatic and recovers well. Projection: Top goaltender on a good club.
The same year, a future Vezina trophy candidate named Pekka Rinne gets picked in the 8th round by Nashville after he is passed over for 3 years of draft eligibility.
Many more of these examples exist from each and every year. The moral of the story. Goaltending is witchcraft.
No, it's a measure of a team's performance. If a guy has a hot streak during that time period, it can help contribute to that team's success, but it doesn't mean a player's results could be projected forward.
ReplyDeleteBecause, if it was, Fernando Pisani would have scored 50 in 2006-07.
That is an assinine statement.
50 goals in a season is the measure of the president choice banner play.
Claude lemieux was measured during the holy grail play.
when we discuss him do you think those 16 games do not mater.
Oiler fan since 94" pisani in 05-06 is the most memorable player.
Rickibear:
ReplyDeleteYou won't find a bigger Pisani supporter than me. But I remember him for more than just a hot streak.
A player (and their role) is not defined by one playoff run. No way, no how. It's a highlight (or, for some, a lowlight - see Luongo, Roberto) but is not an absolute indicator of the quality of the player in question. Yes, it IS a small sample size.
Ducey, for the win.
ReplyDeleteThis labeling 18 year old players as "busts" is nothing short of utter nonsense. You can't even make conclusive statements about 22 or 23 year olds a lot of the time. At age 18? It's still a crapshoot, especially with goalies.
Claude lemieux was measured during the holy grail play.
ReplyDeleteOh oh - somebody just used Claude Lemieux as an example of clutch...
Goaltending is witchcraft.
ReplyDeleteWords to live by, Matt. Words to live by.
Glenn Anderson, anyone?
ReplyDeleteya, but Anderson had 100 pt seasons and 50 goals.
ReplyDeletenot just success in a small sample size.
Players who rise to the occasion when it matters most should have some value. Sure math and sample sizes can shit all over that sort of thing but there are players, who when the game is on the line, you want the puck on their stick.
ReplyDeleteUsually they're your best players but it still matters when the rise to that occasion.
And I think Redline scouting report mixed up Perhonen and post olympic Salo there.
I remember that Speeds LOVED Marek Schwartz back in the day.
Whats sad is you sitting in your basement making snap judgments on a guy you have never seen play.
ReplyDeleteIts been one month since he was drafted and he is a bust already. Wow.
Actually, I'm making snap judgements from a premiere downtown Edmonton office tower, while working away in my white collar job.
Did I say he's a bust? No, I said based on the reports, he sounds like a bust.
Can he turn out? Absolutely. That said, a lot has to go right for it to happen.
The question lingers whether he was selected too early.
Time will tell.
Legendary commenter Ehuisman gives us the svpcts for various Finnish Jr. goaltenders
ReplyDeleteRask 26 1.86 0.935
Niittymäki 19 1.8 0.927
Kiprusoff 31 2.91 0.924
Perhonen 29 2.71 0.922
Helenius 26 2.68 0.92
Toskala 17 2.28 0.919
Hovinen 26 3.12 0.919
Ortio 26 2.63 0.918
Toivonen 31 3.29 0.911
Lehto 36 2.86 0.909
Säteri 34 2.99 0.908
Rämö 18 3.31 0.907
Engren 38 3.03 0.906
Iilahti 14 2.67 0.904
Aittokallio 23 3.2 0.899
Hostikka 19 2.94 0.898
Antila 8 3.31 0.897
Nissinen 40 3.22 0.897
Similä 17 3.61 0.897
Kilpeläinen 19 3.48 0.892
Vuorio 32 3.48 0.886
Did anyone hear the two interviews MacGregor did on 1260 on the same day just after the draft?
ReplyDeleteHe said people are weighing far too much on that one tournament (it was 4 games right?).
Stu suggested the kid might have been a little worn out.
As the season before he lived / played in the far north of Finland. Where he apparently played all of 13 games the entire season.
Then last season including the tournaments and playoffs. Perhonen played I believe it was 51 games.
Stu also mentioned that none of the detractors seem to point out that in the other tournament he was in he performed very well.
Also as mentioned previous they sent Freddie Chabot over to watch him on a couple separate trips. He apparently loved the kid. From what I can gather he looks like a solid prospects. Surprised to hear the word bust is already thrown around in this section.
Surprised to hear the word bust is already thrown around in this section.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, it was only me.
Seems like I overreacted based on Redline's analysis.
Reading more viewpoints did me good.
Oh oh - somebody just used Claude Lemieux as an example of clutch...
ReplyDeleteSorry I'm late.
Actually, I'm making snap judgements from a premiere downtown Edmonton office tower, while working away in my white collar job.
ReplyDeleteA thinly-veiled boast about working in an office tower. You sound like Dan Tencer here - next thing you know, you'll be bragging about wearing a suit to work.
Just pathetic. Not to mention 100% hypocritical, and yet another symptom of a massive inferiority complex.
A thinly-veiled boast about working in an office tower. You sound like Dan Tencer here - next thing you know, you'll be bragging about wearing a suit to work.
ReplyDeleteRelax, it was a joke - and merely a tounge-in-cheek counter to the sentiment that I was a posting from my basement.
And if you want to get technical, it was actually an overt boast.
Thinly veiled brags are your speciality.
Jabroni
ReplyDelete