The biggest question goes like this: will the Oilers be in building mode or is this the season when the team decides to contend for W's from G1? Now that's not the same as pushing for a playoff spot, but it's progress.
From there, it becomes easier to construct the shopping list for July 1 and beyond. Before that, there are qualifying offers and possible buyouts for some players. Over the next couple of days we'll look at UFA's, both Oiler free agents and possible incoming players.
For now it's the restricted group.
Here's a look at the RFA's:
- C Andrew Cogliano: Coach Renney used him in a new role (tougher competition, PK role) and there were signs of progress, according to the coach. His FO percentage was poor and his -12 wasn't stellar, but Renney sees a player. More than that, he was a willing soldier and did appear to be working on his game. I don't know that he's ever going to be a player that a coach can count on, but there's a lot of try. His offensive contributions 5x5 have been going backwards since his rookie season so it might be a case of the absence of opportunities clearing the mind. Coming off a 1-year, $1M deal and my guess is he'll be traded this week unless coach Renney found a way to talk everyone into keeping him.
- D Ladislav Smid: Played second pairing minutes (in terms of toughness) and delivered a reasonable CorsiRel. It's progress, and depending on what route the team goes this summer Smid should be able to settle into the 3rd pairing and be an effective depth player. He was a 1.3M cap hit this past season, I think they'll sign him to a multi-year deal and consider him a part of the future. Now that I've finally endorsed Smid, he'll be dealt by Tuesday.
- D Theo Peckham: Tough as nails throwback has negotiated the rapids and been able to hold Alex Plante at bay while establishing himself as a reasonable option for the coach. The Oilers have added similar player types (Teubert, Musil) but Peckham has the roster spot and it's his to lose. $550,000 cap hit, he should get a nice raise and perhaps more than one year from the Oilers.
- D Kevin Montgomery: Acquisition from last season who has a chance to be a helpful player. Cap hit is around $600,000 and I'd say his chances of staying are better than Chorney's.
- L JF Jacques: The Edmonton Oilers have devoted 1322 even-strength minutes to the NHL career of JF Jacques and have received 9 goals and 8 assists. The most impressive thing he does is the pre-game skate. Man he's big and fast. Maybe that's the problem, he's a batting practice superstar. Anyway, Jacques is really pooched now with Smyth coming on board. I don't think they'll trade him or qualify him (he was a $615,000 cap hit), but rather do the Poo route and allow him to have a fresh start in a new town.
- D Taylor Chorney: Well now, what the hell to do with this fellow. Chorney--like Alex Plante--is losing the battle for his player-type on the roster. It's actually even worse: not only has Jeff Petry passed him like a house on the side of the road, the organization is adding a Fedun here and a Klefbom there at every turn. $942,000 cap hit, I think they'll trade him if possible and as a backup sign him and risk waivers when he's sent down.
- L Liam Reddox: Already gone. Reddox has signed to play in Sweden next season, and one imagines that he'll be back for another NHL try down the line.
- R Zack Stortini: His story was written opening night when he was in a suit for the anthem. Stortini's foot speed seems to have cost him that NHL job, and I think the Oilers will attempt to unload him sometime this week.
- C Ryan O'Marra: With Ryan Smyth back in the fold, perhaps the organization will allow themselves the possibility that O'Marra isn't going to become an NHL player. Shame too, the team needs a player just like him (only better). Expect the Oilers will walk away.
- L Matt Marquardt: Oilers gave up All-Star Cody Wild for this role player, I have no idea what they plan to do with him. A guess? He's down the line.
- G Bryan Pitton: He's not progressing and the Oilers may or may not need him for Stockton.
- D Jordan Bendfeld: Tough defender who splits time between Stockton and OKC. I'd guess he gets a contract.
I'm not so sure Cogliano is going to be dealt. He may end up being the 3/4c.
ReplyDeleteI think, if they feel RNH is ready to make to jump, then it's Sam Gagner that's moved for a young Franson/Bogo type.
I can't see Gagner going unless they bring in another skill C. Horcoff can handle the tough assignments and they'll probably sign a Konopka for faceoffs, leaving Gagner and RNH until the 9-game mark.
ReplyDeleteThere's also Lander, Vande Velde and others. I suspect the Oilers deal Cogliano this week UNLESS there's a good value deal out there for Gagner.
I don't think they're counting on RNH making the roster this year. If he does, great, but everything Tambo said pre-draft implies that they're willing to wait. That and the trade of Foster leaves an already weak centre position with absolutely no depth.
ReplyDeleteI suspect for that reason that they'll try to get Cogliano to sign another 1 year deal. At that point, Cogs and Gags' contracts will be up and the organization can make a decision with RNH penciled in about whether Lander is ready and if Vandevelde / House are true NHLers to map out the future of the centre position.
Even if they sign a veteran checking centre, Cogs on the 4th line isn`t so bad. The above young`uns probably should spend time in the AHL until Horcoff`s inevitable injury requires their call-up.
There must be something in the CBA about the maximum number of Ryan's on any 1 team,so O'marra is certainly down the road..:)
ReplyDeleteInteresting times down the middle-if they do indeed plan to acquire a C that can win a faceoff 1 or both of Cogs/Gags could be gone.
It's that damn D that still needs attention..we've got forwards to burn but it won't make a lick of difference if we don't get some help on the back end.
Tencer has a few thoughts via Twitter:
ReplyDeleteDon't spend too much time on forward depth chart today, Oilers fans. My sense is that there will be plenty of movement yet to come.
An interesting thought from Tambellini...says, when asked about adding veterans, that they're looking to make "a couple" of moves like this.
Questions:
Does Tencer know anything with him being a talking head for the org?
If he does, there's still a canyon wide gap between intent and results, I guess.
Should be a very interesting week, we'll see what's in store for next season, if Tambo adds another couple of vets a la Smyth then we know that they're planning on starting the long climb back. Move Hemsky or Gilbert for more kids and we know its another lottery pick.
ReplyDeleteShould be interesting and I haven't a clue which way it will go.
Had a busy weekend here, lots of work around the house, hanging with the kids and date night last night so didn't have time to read or comment much until tonight. Just wanted to put my thanks in there LT, thank you for all of the work this weekend, without it I wouldn't have a damn clue about any of these kids ;) now I can pretend like I know what's going on, same as at work.
btw I'm with Alice, you should have this Pat guy come and do colour with you at next year's draft. ;)
Well it makes sense to add a defenseman so there's that. And then there's center. So yeah, it makes sense.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff Jay.
ReplyDeleteI'd say Tencer is connected. He claims he's an 'independent contractor' but he's pretty well an organization shill.
Now the question is are these vets going to be from the Smyth/Handzus/Hamrlik tree or from the Fraser/Foster/Vandermeer tree.
Yeah, hookers and blow AND Pat. I won't have to call home, she can just tune in to CNN for the LA speedway car chase. :-)
ReplyDeleteI won't believe it [that the Oilers intend to be competitive] until we see it, and Tambellini was just a month ago quoted as saying, "The next few years are important to stockpile the organization for pieces down the road."
ReplyDeleteThat being said, Lowe did have some interesting remarks this past weekend
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/06/23/spector_draft/?utm_source=Hockey%20lineup%20RSS-Images&utm_medium=feed&utm_content=Spector%20on%20NHL%20draft%3A%20Staying%20the%20course
And Lowe will admit: There are days when that little voice in his ear is telling him that Edmonton should trade a pick or a prospect - anything to speed up the process a bit.
"I'm sure the fans are the same way, and Tamby, Tom (head coach Renney), and Daryl (owner Katz). We all hate to lose," Lowe said. "We want to reward the fans for their patience, for hanging in there."
So while Burke tries to move those picks if possible, and Winnipeg hangs on to its' No. 7 overall because it's the safe thing to do for now, Lowe and the Oilers will stick with the traditional rebuild they started two-plus years ago.
They've suffered this long. It is no time to change course now.
"We can go on our gut," Lowe said. "What The Hockey News says we have. What other general managers say, when they say 'Stick to it, you guys. You've got so many good players…'
"That helps to give you the confidence. And then you see a player like a Taylor Hall, and you know."
You're doing the right thing.
They all hope they are.
LT: The most impressive thing he does is the pre-game skate. Man he's big and fast.
ReplyDeleteFunny = Sitting around in a group that includes LT having a few (and a few more) cold ones, then the conversation turning to big JFJ.
oh if there's cocaine and hookers I'm showing up, whether I'm invited or not ;)
ReplyDeleteShould be a big week - set on the wing pretty well. But unsettled up the middle, on the blue and in net.
With regard to the Oilers next season, up front they have some really nice things now. If they could sign a Laich or a Fiddler (Zona's choice I believe) then the top 4 might be:
ReplyDeleteHorcoff-Hall-Eberle
Gagner-Smyth-Hemsky
Fiddler-MP-Omark
Vande Velde-Cogliano-Jones
Who'd I miss.
Then on defense, all you need is Orr and Park. Simple. :-)
Erm, Colton Orr and Richard Park are both forwards LT, I doubt they'd help. Although each would be an upgrade over Strudwick.
ReplyDeleteWith Fraser gone I presume they give that fourth line spot to one of VDV, O'Marra or Lander which means its either Cogliano in slot 3 unless they have someone else in mind. In which case Cogs is probably gone I would think. I guess they might run him out ont he fourth line but methinks they'd move him.
Of course of RHN has a great camp then what? I presume he goes back to jr but what if he forces their hand?
The blue is a disaster. Still.
LOL..I think it was Bobby Orr and Brad Park..
ReplyDeleteSure glad the deal got done. I would like to see Cogs stay. Have really liked his try. IMO he is an NHLer now.
EJ Update:
ReplyDeleteStortini, Jacques set to walk?
If the Edmonton Oilers don’t qualify Group 2 free agents Zack Stortini and J.F. Jacques on Monday, they’ll be unrestricted free-agents on July 1. Since Stortini didn’t get a recall from Oklahoma City after clearing waivers in February, there’s a good chance they’ll let him walk away. Jacques is on the bubble. The Oilers will qualify Andrew Cogliano, Ladislav Smid, Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney, and are 50-50 on Ryan O’Marra. They have until June 30 to buy out Sheldon Souray at two-thirds his $4.5-million salary. Jeff Deslauriers, Jim Vandermeer, Jason Strudwick and Steve MacIntyre are unrestricted free agents. The Oilers will hold their prospects camp in about a week, with about 25 players including their 2011 draft picks and prospects like Anton Lander.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Clare+Drake+could+Hall+Fame+list/5009127/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-edmontonjournal
GREAT! I do all this work.....looks like they like Chorney, Jacques and O'Marra more than me.
ReplyDeleteThe more time goes on, the more I feel Cogliano and Smid will remain Oilers for another year. The spot is still there for them to have and the Oilers have others needs they need to focus on (ie. Whitney's partner, Tough guy, Khabibulin's kick in the ass, OKC)
ReplyDeleteAnyone else remember... 5 years ago... when Smid was gifted a #4 spot that was clearly too much?
ReplyDeleteAnd today he's still not a #4.
Smid could play as a defensive 2nd pairing man. Has all the tools to do so.
ReplyDeleteLT: Why no love for O'Marra?
He seems to have beaten VDV in both his NHL and AHL tenures.
I like him best for N4 center spot, and maybe eventually N3.
That's my thinking with Smid as well PDO.He's looked OK at times,but he hasn't grabbed that spot.
ReplyDeleteThey will probably keep him and play him with Gilbert but we've seen that the 2nd pairing is a little over his head still.
And I like Smid,always have.
And if you move him to the 3rd pairing where do Peckham,Petry,and Foster play?
ReplyDeleteI like him best for N4 center spot, and maybe eventually N3.
Maybe on a 30th place club. I'm told the Oilers have higher aspirations.
I don't think there is anything wrong with Smid. He is what he is. I suspect he'd be a similar player today had he came into the NHL at 21 as opposed to 19.
ReplyDeleteHe never had much offensive game, and that really limits his ceiling. Defensive game he's improved - and that's coming with at-bats. At best case we can hope for is a Robyn Regehr, or a Jan Hejda.
I think Smid is not a bad option for the Oilers' second pairing as long as he's playing with the right partner. His scoring chances last year were actually quite good when he was playing with Gilbert or Petry.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteRQ: He had 5 points in 21 games and -2.
ReplyDeleteLet's say 20 points and -8 for the season.
Seems pretty standard to me.
Seguin acted as 4th center for Boston most of the time, and that's what he got. (-4 tough).
He had the 10th +-/60 of the team, with the dregs against dregs. PDO of 1000.
That's not so out of the ordinary for a 4th center. And he's 23.
Two ways to look at 94 coming back
ReplyDelete- the backlash would have been rough if they didn`t do it so they had to; plus he gets them closer to the floor
- they are ready to try and start competing.
if you believe the latter, and tambo was leaning that way when speaking to stauffer, then hopkins goes back to junior and we bring in a real pivot to play behind 10-89.
it doesn`t have to be Messier; maybe it`s a Handzus who`s now redundant ni LA with Kopitar-Richards-Stoll down the middle.
it wasn`t my point - it was Sean`s - but 94`s arrival means 89 will get a full year to play with two real wingers; and esêcially if 83 stays because we know 4-14 are ahead of 91 and we know what 94 brings. So here is the last chance for 89 to show what he can do.
Still, you`d think his spot eventually goes to Hopkins unless Lander is so good so quick they eventually roll with Hopkins-Gagner-Lander in the top three pivot spots.
You know, LT, the only thing your blog is missing is a Letters to the Editor/Q&A.
ReplyDeleteAs an attempt to get a groundswell of support for Fiddler, I'm appealing to the masses, so please make sure we all refer to him as "Edmonton-born Vern Fiddler" moving forward.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Not sure what .......most of us would do with Hookers and Blow other than look like nervous hillbillies, but Orr and Park would cry with the # of Oiler forwards that could not take a pass to clear the zone.
ReplyDeleteHave no doubt we'd make playoffs with those 2 D men but with Khabby playing goal we'd still be picking at 15
If are going to sign a centre to win face-offs and kill penalties why not sign Boyd Gordon and be blown away with his ability at both skill sets rather than Konopka and be disappointed with how bad a player he is
How? How is Jacques "On the bubble"? I want the name of the person in the Oilers' organization that has gone to bat for J.F. Jacques so many times. What non-goon forward has played 1300+ ES minutes and been so bad? He's got to be one of the worst regular players in NHL history.
ReplyDeleteAnd they keep signing him. And putting him on the roster. And playing him.
"If are going to sign a centre to win face-offs and kill penalties why not sign Boyd Gordon and be blown away with his ability at both skill sets rather than Konopka and be disappointed with how bad a player he is"
ReplyDeleteEdmonton-born Vern Fiddler was a first-line penalty killer for Phoenix last year and had a 53.9% faceoff percentage.
Also, he was born in Edmonton. Great Alberta boy.
Like Fiddler too. Just think Gordon is young enough and good enough as a specialist to be the Craig MacTavish on the SC winning teams of 2014, 2015
ReplyDeleteWhy exactly do people care where people where born? Jesus.
ReplyDeleteFiddler:
7th QC on Forwards
2nd QT on Forwards
REL Corsi: -16,4
PDO: 1300
Inflated stats, but sucks in real. And he's old.
Dennis:
ReplyDeleteHard to know what to make of the Smyth signing on its own. They could go with a roster something like:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Ryan Smyth ($6.250m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Ales Hemsky ($4.100m)
Taylor Hall ($3.750m) / Sam Gagner ($2.275m) / Jordan Eberle ($1.158m)
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson ($1.525m) / Ryan O'Marra ($3.750m) / Linus Omark ($0.875m)
Gilbert Brule ($1.850m) / Andrew Cogliano ($1.300m) / Ryan Jones ($1.500m)
/ Teemu Hartikainen ($0.875m)
DEFENSEMEN
Tom Gilbert ($4.000m) / Ryan Whitney ($4.000m)
Kurtis Foster ($1.800m) / Jeff Petry ($1.000m)
Ladislav Smid ($1.500m) / Taylor Chorney ($0.700m)
/ Theo Peckham ($0.800m)
GOALTENDERS
Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.750m) / Devan Dubnyk ($0.800m)
BUYOUTS: Robert Nilsson ($0.416m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,475,000; BONUSES: $3,937,500
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $10,825,000
lol @ at a habs fan saying who cares where a player was born.
ReplyDeleteThat leaves a roster spot open, and assumes they keep RNH (he's called O'Marra in that printout because I don't know how to type in a new player, or even if that's possible).
ReplyDeleteI would imagine they'll actually find another a vet D (either in place of Chorney or as the 23rd roster guy) and probably find a vet up front (maybe in Hartikainen's roster spot, or Nugent Hopkins if he's sent to the WHL), but they have no trouble making the cap floor, they still are able to have kids getting experience and minutes. We'll have to wait and see what exactly they do.
Can someone give me a single redeeming hockey quality possessed by Jacques?
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see Barker and Konopka next year with the Oilers.
ReplyDelete"Inflated stats, but sucks in real. And he's old."
ReplyDeleteMight want to check his OZ% before you say more silly things, though I doubt it will stop you.
His Adj. Raw Corsi was -2.31.
And he's 31.
And he won 53%+ faceoffs. And killed penalties all over the place.
Edmonton-born Vern Fiddler, folks.
"I'd like to see Barker and Konopka next year with the Oilers."
ReplyDeleteWho Barker? Cam? He's not very good at hockey right now. Minnesota is about to buy him out.
I like Fiddler, but would rather have Belanger. We can prob get him for 2 yrs at $2 mill max. You then have Cogs at 4C this year.
ReplyDeleteHall-Horcoff-Eberle
Smyth-Gagner-Hemsky
MPS-Belanger-Omark
Hartikanen-Cogs-Jones
A much more balanced lineup then last year, but no real bangers. I still think if Hemsky is to re-sign then you can consider moving Omark for D help. He is wasted as a third line player, but will never play ahead of Eberle or Hemsky.
My hope for our third line in 2012-13 is:
Hamilton-Lander-MPS
MPS can play the right side, and unless Hamilton or Hartikanen can play the RW position, I hope MPS makes the switch after we move Omark (or Hemsky of he won't re-sign). Hamilton may be a perfect 3rd line two winger with size, decent skill and great own zone awareness. Him and Lander are a great possible 2/3 of a top end 3rd line (I know it is a few years away, but I think they have the ability, if not the ability to be 2nd liners)
I want the name of the person in the Oilers' organization that has gone to bat for J.F. Jacques so many times.
ReplyDeleteI'm the guy.
Have you seen the impact Lucic has had in Boston?
JFJ has all of Lucic's ability, he just needs more time to watch more Lucic videos.
This will be his breakout year.
I'm smarter than everyone in this room.
I would hope to heck they could cut ties with Bendfeld, Marquart, and Pitton. They need to clear some contracts.
ReplyDeleteDo they sign MacDonald to a major league contract?
Ryan Smyth now plays for the Edmonton Oilers.
ReplyDelete:-D
I keep saying it over and over in my head.
flamingpavelbure said...
ReplyDeleteRQ: He had 5 points in 21 games and -2.
He's played more games in the ECHL.
I suppose you could make your assessment based on his cup of coffee in the NHL. Personally, I think the AHL and ECHL sample size is much bigger and far more telling. O'Marra does not have the resume of a decent NHL contributor.
"Can someone give me a single redeeming hockey quality possessed by Jacques?"
ReplyDeleteHe's got a great hockey name.
Miles better than Taylor Chorney for example. Or Devan Dubnyk.
"cryperdi" = what Zorg does when he sees a perdi girl.
I am not comfortable with any player that can't skate well. I don't see the point unless there is something very special there. Especially when they want to play uptempo hockey.
ReplyDeleteVV and O'Marra look like they are skating with 5 lb weights on their skates.
When your core is loaded up with rookies and newer players, one of the few places to sneak a few vets/teachers in is on the 4th and bottom pairing.
As you always say LT they are also plentifully available and cheap. We also need a couple of hockey players who are tough and protective, of which we have none up front (Mac not being a hockey player) and one in the back (Peckham, although I don't think he's that tough, just big).
ST needs to find a couple of Thornton's for the 4th. VV and O'Marra to OKC for depth to cover Horc when he goes down.
We likely aren't going to see moves to make the team a winner in the short term, but ST should at least provide proper protection and begin only icing legitimate NHL players so the team can begin growing some self respect.
The system building and team bonding needs to start now if they want things to take off in a few years.
Does anyone know how bad Keith Ballard actually is? Is he a decent third pairing, second PP guy who is being paid as a top two D, or is he an actual liability who shouldn't be on the ice?
ReplyDeleteIf Vancouver gave up Cody Hodgson and took back some money ie. Brule and Souray, is that a deal the Oilers should be looking at? They still need at least two more NHL D. If Ballard still is one (albeit overpaid) and they can pick up a potentially useful young player in the process, then he's worth thinking about.
@Marc
ReplyDeleteThe Canucks wouldn't trade Cody Hodgson he has a roster spot in the fall. Torres or Lapierre won't be back.
I thought about Ballard as a option as well, however at $4.2 million cap hit for 4 more years, too expensive for what this team needs. There might be better options out there for less money and less term IMO.
Rivers Q: Fair enough. But he did have similar/better stats than Stortini did when he was called up.
ReplyDeleteJFJ is exactly like Lucic, except his hands are made of stone.
Ballard's contract is too long to take for a defenseman who might never recover from being injured, and he was never that good before he got injured.
ReplyDeleteWhy pay Ballard for 4 years, when you can probably sign say Hamrlik for 2 years @ $5 million per season, and not impact window when Hall and company have to start being paid real money AND Klefbom, Marincin, will be close to being ready.
The Oilers need one good defensive D to pair with Gilbert for tough minutes.
Petry can pair with Whitney for secondary minutes.
And Smid and Peckham play the 3rd pair.
Smid could be a huge asset as a #5-swing #4 D, if they can sign him to a value contract for 2 to 3 years.
Vern Fiddler's Grandma used to live in the same home as my Mom. Mom would tell me about this "nice young man" who would visit his Grandma whenever his team was in town.
ReplyDeleteI always thought that was kind of cool, you read about pro athletes doing all kinds of things on the road but that's the first 'visiting Grandma at the old folks home whenever he gets a chance" story I've come across.
PLus he's from here. Edmonton.
Godot said...
ReplyDeleteAnd Smid and Peckham play the 3rd pair.
Are they both going to play the left side?
Can't see Fiddler being signed with RNH, Horc, Gagner, Cogs, Brule, Lander, Vandevelde all wanting a shot at the 4 centre spots. Be nice to see some movement there but I really doubt any Reasoner type is coming to town. Maybe the year after if the guys we already have are deficient.
ReplyDeleteI can't say I'm especially optimistic about free agency this year for the Oilers. I think Tambellini will try to make some moves, but there are a lot of extra cap dollars waiting to be spent this year. Top teams will now have the money to resign UFAs and RFAs (guys like Bieksa won't be going anywhere) and teams like Florida and Phoenix will be required to overpay just to make the floor.
ReplyDeleteIn this market, Tambellini's options are limited, because he can't/shouldn't give long terms, has less incentive to overpay and won't be selling winning hockey to UFAs.
Sorry to be a downer, but I think the most realistic expectation is a 4th-5th d-man and a bottom 6 forward. The kids will fill the rest of the holes.
One other thing: I think one of RNH or Lander will likely screw up all projections and plans by clearly showing up as the 3rd best centre of the team in TC. In particular, if RNH clicks on a line with MP and Omark, will the Oilers be able to send him back to junior for some more seasoning?
ReplyDeleteI think our FA activity will be even less than Cactus. I think there's a chance of a big Dman signing, but that's it. I think we're far more likely to see a trade.
ReplyDeleteMaybe if the Smyth thing hadn't developed, we'd be bigger players, but right now we have too many Fs to be adding any.
If RNH stays up, it's to play with Hall. Book it.
Priceless interview with Ryan Smyth on the 1260 yesterday. When asked about Ryan Jones' giving him some hair competition. Smytty replied, "There's no competition. There's only one mullet."
ReplyDeleteIt would be a mistake to play Nugent-Hopkins with Hall in year 1 at even strength.
ReplyDeleteHall already attracts the tough opposition. You want easier minutes for Nugent-Hopkins.
Give Nugent-Hopkins veteran wingers (Smyth and Hemsky)
OR
give him big wingers (Hartikainen and Paajarvi) and "protected" minutes. Hemsky, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins all on different lines. Hemsky and Hall would attract the tougher opposition lines.
i.e. Stamkos was lost until they put a veteran St. Louis on his wing.
ReplyDeleteStaple Smyth to Nugent-Hopkins at even strength in year 1.
godot10 said...
ReplyDeleteIt would be a mistake to play Nugent-Hopkins with Hall in year 1 at even strength. Hall already attracts the tough opposition. You want easier minutes for Nugent-Hopkins.
This is not a concern. 94-10-83 are going to play the tuffs. The kids will see butter minutes.
That said, lines will be jumblelaya and we will at times see the C's switch depending on matchups, home and away, injuries, amount of Special Teams play etc. But as an over-riding theme there's no good reason not to play RNH with the winger he was drafted to play with.
Sorry this is back to the old 94 topic, but I'm curious that it's thought 3.0 put Lombardi over the barrel. Smyth Privately asked for the trade, and as long as LA could live within their cap there is no barrel. When Lombardi went Public with the trade request, in order to pressure Toonces, he brought out the barrel himself. No way can you read this in the same way as the Pronger/Heatley scenarios where the player went public to force the GM. Lombardi is the one who raised the stakes, so the fact that he got to wear it in the end is mostly his own doing.
ReplyDeletespOILer:
ReplyDeleteI'm in agreement on RNH playing with Hall if he makes the team. If they want to give those guys veteran cover, play Hemsky as their RW and set up the rest of the top nine appropriately.
Several permutations that immediately spring to mind:
Hall-RNH-Hemsky (fixed trio)
Smyth-Gagner-Eberle
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Omark
Smyth-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Omark-Gagner-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-Eberle
Paajarvi-Gagner-Omark
I think if Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi/Omark were all a year further along, the idea of 94/10/83, 4/RNH/14, 91/89/23 would be a bit more palatable. Personally, I like the first of the three combinations I posted above the best, since it spreads out the veterans and "semi-veterans" between the top three lines.
A lot of what they should do depends on if Renney is just going to roll "1-2-3, 1-2-3-4, repeat", or if they're going to try and actually line-match this coming season. We'll have a better idea of this by July 15th, once we see if they've done anything in the UFA market...
Have people sort of concluded that RNH will be in the lineup next year? He really seems like a clear case where the player should return to junior for another year.
ReplyDeleteHe's physically undersized and in need of maturation. The risks of inserting a small 18 year old into the lineup can be observed simply by looking at Brule. An absolute worst case scenario could see RNH suffering a serious injury and losing significant development time.
Send him back. Save the year of eligibility, let him grow, and give him a chance to lead with the Rebels and the U20 team.
I'm all for sending RNH back to junior for one more year. Let him dominate and come in bigger and even more confident. Besides, if Lander makes the team, the problem becomes what to do with either Samwise or Cogs 2 years from now.
ReplyDelete//This is not a concern. 94-10-83 are going to play the tuffs. The kids will see butter minutes.//
ReplyDeleteThat's not going to work on the road.
Hall is just a kid himself. Another year (at even strength) of Hall with Horcoff, with Horcoff pointing out defensive subtleties between shifts on the bench, and a year of Nugent-Hopkins with Smyth, doing much the same thing, will accelerate both their development.
Hall and Nugent-Hopkins can have lots of PP time together.
Hall and Nugent-Hopkins will happen soon enough. No need to push it.
I guess Hopkins can force the issue but I'd rather put him back in the dub.
ReplyDeleteJon: my argument (and I think some of the others) was never that RNH SHOULD make the team, but that based on other options and his expected performance in camp, that he WILL be one of the top 3 options at centre. If he plays himself into contention, he'll probably earn a 9 game look to start the season. If he's doing reasonably well at that time and the Oilers are 5-3-1, can you really see them sending him down?
ReplyDeleteAs for his size, I still think that issue is overblown. Patrick Kane, according to TSN is sitting at 5-10 and 178. After his offseason workouts, RNH is already pushing 174. If he comes to camp around 182, that's not huge, but not tiny. Moreover, banging the body will never be his game and he seems to have elite skills (at least in the WHL) at avoiding contact.
Alice: even after the Richards trade, LA might have been able to live within their cap with a move other than Smyth (Penner anyone?). Obviously, a lot depends on Doughty's eventual salary, but they did have other options.
I agree that Lombardi misplayed this, but it's time for some of the doubters here to give Tambellini credit for knowing his position and being patient. Many of the armchair GMs just wanted him to give in and give up a 3rd or a 4th round pick to land Smyth. Tambellini made the call the be patient and wait to get the right deal. There's no way that Lombardi started this negotiation by offering to take the worst possible draft pick and a marginal NHL player. That they ended up at that point is a credit to Tambellini.
Cactus said...
ReplyDelete"Alice: even after the Richards trade, LA might have been able to live within their cap with a move other than Smyth (Penner anyone?). Obviously, a lot depends on Doughty's eventual salary, but they did have other options.
I agree that Lombardi misplayed this, but it's time for some of the doubters here to give Tambellini credit for knowing his position and being patient. Many of the armchair GMs just wanted him to give in and give up a 3rd or a 4th round pick to land Smyth. Tambellini made the call the be patient and wait to get the right deal. There's no way that Lombardi started this negotiation by offering to take the worst possible draft pick and a marginal NHL player. That they ended up at that point is a credit to Tambellini."
According to Lombardi, he didn't want anything back.
That Tambellini forced him to take Fraser could be seen as a victory I guess but it's nothing more than a minor irritant for Lombardi.
Apparently, he'll be given a chance to make the team and, if he doesn't, he's off to Manchester.
Looks like a win-win to me.
DSF: If Lombardi didn't want to anything in return, then why did he bother with the song and dance routine with Calgary? Before the Regehr/Kotalik trade or July 1, Calgary could not have signed Smyth, no matter how much they wanted him. Yet, they went so far as to leak that a deal was "done" in the hopes of pressuring Tambellini to give up more in return (Calgary benefitted from the charade by gaining a little more leverage in negotiations with Tanguay). The fact that this has been going on for 1.5-2 months but came together so fast after Tanguay signed is an indication, to me at least, that the final deal was a reflection that Lombardi was out of options.
ReplyDeleteAs for his comment that he wanted nothing in return, isn't that also what he would say if he wanted a tangible asset but wasn't able to get it?
He never had much offensive game, and that really limits his ceiling. Defensive game he's improved - and that's coming with at-bats. At best case we can hope for is a Robyn Regehr, or a Jan Hejda.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with this somewhat. When Smid first came to the Oilers, he definitely showed the ability to push the play in the offensive zone. I recall numerous rushes around the D and behind the net in his rookie year. The problem was he almost always coughed up the puck in that situation and as a result, I think MacT quickly put a clampdown on his freewheeling forays. I do think the Oil saw this player having some offensive potential when they first acquired, him but agreed, he now seems to have lost whatever offensive potential he flashed back then. Amazing how much of this game is mental toughness and confidence at the end of the day.
Cactus: I appreciate that you and others on the contrary side of this argument are suggesting that if he is ready to play at the NHL level he should play.
ReplyDeleteI'm sort of suggesting that, regardless of how he performs at camp, he should be sent back.
Physical maturity is different from weight. RNH is almost universally described as being underdeveloped at this point in time. His pictures from the combine support that. He has a lot of growing to do in the next year. He's also a fairly young player for his draft year (he's 18 until April 12, 2012).
On the flipside, Kane was, despite his small stature, physically mature at the start of the season following his draft. He was reported to be physically mature and about as ready for the NHL as he'd ever be. He was also an older player in his draft year (he was 19 one month into his first NHL season, November 19).
RNH is not physically ready for the NHL. He has much left to prove in junior. We can avoid losing his rights for an additional year by sending him back.
I expect there's a good chance he makes the team based on his training camp performance, I just don't think it's the best possible choice for his development and the team in the long term.
RNH seems pretty similar to Eberle in terms of development at the same age.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers made the right call sending Eberle back to junior to dominate. Hopefully they do the same with the Nuge.
Sending RNH to Ded Reer also has the benefit of allowing Gagner to have a full year so the Oilers can figure out what they have there.
You would think the Oilers can't have RNH and Gagner as their top two C's going forward but maybe Gagner will make some strides in faceoffs and defensive play. If he can do that and score 55 points it would go along way to solidify his presence or at least increase his trade value.
Had not thought of comparison to Eberle, but think you are right.
ReplyDeleteSerious concerns when he was drafted as to Eberle's speed--never ever as to his hands or ability to think the game. By allowing him to mature physically, he matured to point his speed is a complete non issue
Reading about how Smid got his confidence sapped by MacT almost led me to fire up my anti-MacT machine but wtf, enough is enough.
ReplyDeleteUnless RNH pulls off a Gretzky - like training camp and pre-season, it would be sensible to send him back to juniors. No sense in wasting these entry level deals, and like the other poster says, we've actually got enough centres(although bad), to start off the season with.
Is anyone else of the viewpoint that the draft is the perfect tonic for suffering Oiler fans? I am encouraged AND baffled by some of the comments post draft particularly in regards to the newfound optimism surrounding the projected starting roster.
ReplyDeleteWe still have a 30th place roster with numerous one-dimensional players expected to play above their heads. Does drafting RNH or Klefbom change any of that? Smytty will help but he's a mullethead not a miracle worker.
Tambi damn well better be active in FA cos this team is still two injuries away from being spectacularly bad. I think optimism is great but not at the expense of demanding reasonable actions from this management group. His FA fixes last year were Fraser and Foster. He needs to do a helluva lot better job plugging some holes this time around. This org is straddling a dangerous line between guaranteeing itself lottery picks and creating a systemic losing culture with its young core.
Lee: The dynasty Isles were spectacularly bad to start with, and it didn't hurt them too much. Anyway as we all know, Smyth is going to fix everything ;)
ReplyDeletePersonally I look forward to next season in the same spirit as the time I was a passenger in the mountains one fine December morning, in a car with bald summer tire, hydroplaning between a triple axle tractor trailer and a 1,000 foot drop off a cliff.
Teenaged fun.
So, Joel Ward anyone?
ReplyDeleteadehic- Bono's action of climbing into a forgotten Oiler's vehicle
Over or around 50% pt from goal players:
ReplyDeleteHall (52%) LW
Jones (60%) (LW/RW)
Hartikainen (60%) LW
Smyth (47%) LW
Around 40%:
Eberle (42%) RW
MPS (44%) (LW/RW)
Lander (42%)C
Cogliano (39%) C
Omark (19%) (SEL/KHL/AHL 44%) LW/RW
Below 35%:
Gagner (34%)C
Horcoff (34%)C
Hemsky (34%)RW
RNH (30%)C
You build lines with:
1. One player in the 50% range
2. One in the 40% range
3. A set-up player.
Though yeilding goals to Qual Comp. Is how i would structure. With historic Chemistry.
Build away:
Is there any reason at all for the Oilers to sign Jordan Benfield or Bryan Pitton to a two-way contract? Seems to me that you only give those to guys who might actually get NHL games over the term of the contract (or whose rights you need to retain in the belief that they'll get NHL games in later contracts), and neither of those guys should fit into that category.
ReplyDeleteOilers were at 46/50 contracts at the end of the season, I think. Do other teams cut it that close?
Lee: maybe we were watching different teams, but you seem to paint a 30th place finish as inevitable. If you'll recall, finishing that poorly required:
ReplyDelete-Multiple injuries for established NHL veterans and stars
-Playing Khabibulin more than Dubnyk
-Playing several rookies in key roles
With all that, the Oilers finished only 6 points back of Colorado.
While the Oilers are not a playoff team in their current form, just one or two of the following will get the Oilers of the basement and possibly up to 9-10th in the Conference:
-Buyout/trade Khabibulin or make him the clear backup
-Trade/Sign at least 1 top 4 defenceman
-Have better like with injuries
-See the kids, on average, take the next step in their development
Cactus
ReplyDeleteWe were last before the injuries. They just made us un-catchable in the wrong way
Reading about how Smid got his confidence sapped by MacT almost led me to fire up my anti-MacT machine but wtf, enough is enough.
ReplyDeleteI didn't read anywhere that this was MacT's fault.Smid got thrown into the line up because there was no depth in the org.He was in charge of coaching not procuring.
At least with the re-acquisition of The Mullet they have the "bouncing goals in off their asses" thing covered.
ReplyDelete