Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Imitation

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. If this is the case, I think the Boston Bruins should prepare to be flattered this summer.

The Oilers appear to be getting ready to add some energy to the 4th line, shore up the blue with a veteran to replace Vandermeer/Strudwick--and one that can perhaps play more minutes in critical situations, and a center who can win faceoffs. Hell, maybe they'll even find a goalie this summer.

Let's look at the blue. The Bruins had a nice group of "Seidenberg" veterans, calm feet and an idea about how to play the game. They also had Chara, but let's not talk about that right now.

The blue has been a pain in the ass forever, and part of the problem is lack of experience. The Stanley team boasted veterans like Chris Pronger, Jason Smith, Steve Staios and added Jaro Spacek and Dick Tarnstrom at the deadline.

That blueline also featured two youngsters (Matt Greene and M-A Bergeron) but they were sent away (for Lubo and Grebs)  over the last few seasons.

The Oilers on defense currently have some issues. Their best defenseman (Ryan Whitney) can't stay healthy, and their second best defender (Tom Gilbert) suffered periods of ineffectiveness and then what appeared to be a crisis of confidence during the year.

Veterans Kurtis Foster, Jim Vandermeer and Jason Strudwick were not what the doctor ordered and the rookies were rookies. Ladislav Smid showed some signs of progress and Theo Peckham played tougher minutes than expected based on profile and experience (48% of his EV minutes were played with Tom Gilbert). It's a mess. However, there are some things we know already about the group, including the fact that Jason Strudwick won't be back and things are looking dim for Jim Vandermeer.

I don't see any way for this team to improve along the blue without a veteran defensemen being added to the group. This player would be able to penalty kill and might also be right-handed. Here's a look at last season's top 4 (TOI per game) based on situation:

Evens
  1. Whitney 18:19
  2. Gilbert 18:09
  3. Petry 16:54
  4. Smid 16:50
  5. Peckham 15:58
  6. Vandermeer 15:39
  7. Foster 13:39
PP
  1. Whitney 4:19
  2. Foster 3:50
  3. Gilbert 2:59
  4. Petry 2:11
  5. Smid 0:45
  6. Vandermeer 0:27
  7. Peckham 0:06
PK
  1. Gilbert 3:21
  2. Whitney 2:42
  3. Smid 2:40
  4. Peckham 2:31
  5. Vandermeer 2:04
  6. Strudwick 1:57
  7. Petry 1:16
The special teams were a mess; the PP suffered because Kurtis Foster didn't have a good season and Whitney was injured again. The penalty-kill was also poor, I think mostly because Vandermeer and Strudwick (the two veteran defensive defensemen) couldn't handle the workload (they should be much higher on the PK TOI GP list).

What's the solution? I think they need a Jan Hejda for the PK and evens, and maybe a Sami Lepisto to help with moving the puck and to provide insurance when the kids struggle.
  1. Whitney-Gilbert
  2. Hejda-Foster
  3. Peckham-Smid
  4. Lepisto
Petry can start in the minors and be the first injury call up. He'll probably play 82 games anyway.

73 comments:

  1. Souray? That'll help us get to the cap floor if nothing else.

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  2. Loved Hejda when he was here, but his underliers last season were somewhat short of terrific.

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  3. Foster will have a much better season. The wild card will be Whitney: is he now surgically repaired or not?

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  4. I'm curious to know which D position we're trying to fill.

    In the last thread, there was talk that we're looking for a second pairing LHer to play with Gilbert, which makes no sense to me.

    We have 3 lefties in Whitney, Smid and Peckham. Surely one of these fellers has the second pairing job? If we assume that Petry makes the team out of camp, then don't he and Peckham/Smid have the bottom pairing locked up?

    So really aren't we looking for a top pairing RHer to play with Whitney? And where the hell are we going to find one of those?

    Solving the depth issue sounds easily fixable just by retaining Foster or re-signing Vandermeer. The top pairing issue is a different story.

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  5. I think the bigger issue is the PK. Oilers need to be better in that area, a veteran is badly needed.

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  6. Seems to me there are two options - a) finding a legit #2 to play with Whitney and have your traditional 'top' pair playing all situations, and play Gilbert/Smid as the second pair. You're not going to get a true #1, so your best bet is two solid #2s together.
    or
    b) find a legit shutdown guy to play with Gilbert, and let Whitney/Petrey play second toughs and try and rack up the offence. Whitney has the great offensive potential, so you could try and capitalize on that.

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  7. If I was running the Oilers, I would have speedy wingers (check), two-way centerman (not enough), and PMD's (not close).

    Instead the Oielrs are going, speedy wingers, offensive minded centers and big, lumbering Dmen. Almost as if Visnovsky and Grebeshkov were a mistake.

    The PK needs work, but its mostly because the forwards allow the point shots through at will, just not enough collective pressure up there.

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  8. PK... Well then overpay Jovo or Hannan on short stopgap contracts, if they'll come, which I doubt. They're both lefties. But then one of Peckham or Smid is gone or sitting (till injury).

    To my eye though the shutdown issue is on starboard, where we have two younger offensive guys and then Foster & Vandy.

    The UFA market for D this summer is thinner than the Olson twins.

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  9. We could nab Scott Hannan for 2 years. # Guys .......how does he look? If he is capable, play him with Whitney. Call Boyd Gordon's agent 10 seconds after FA frenzy starts and say we want you to take difficult face-offs, kill all penalties and you are more likely to win 2-3 SC here than in Washington

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  10. LT -

    How do you feel about Scott Hannan for the defense. I saw him a lot when I lived in the Bay area. Didn't like the team, but I liked him as he was developing. Too expensive as a FA for what he is, but he can PK and is a hack in the corners.

    And...thanks sincerely for all your effort posting and on radio during over the draft week. Much, much appreciated.

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  11. Steve Montador is top of my UFA d-man list. Ticks all the boxes...veteran, toughness, can add a little offense, played in Alberta before.

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  12. Islanders acquire Erhoff's rights for a 4th rounder next year.

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  13. Henry: Thanks for the kind words. I like Hannan (always have), but wonder if he'd come here. He had a decent playoff for the Caps, imagine there'll be a marketplace for him in the first division.

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  14. Wang finally starting to wonder what playoff money looks like?

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  15. Wang finally starting to wonder what playoff money looks like?

    He's also trying to win the August 1 referendum on a new rink (fully paid for with public money)

    They are where the Oilers will be in 2 years.

    Oilers can be way ahead of them if Gagner turns into a good 2C and Hemsky stays, and stays healthy.

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  16. Report Card on Hannan from a Caps fan who has a statsier approach.

    Is too a real word. ;o)

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  17. Disappointed I was to see Burns go to SJ... but we couldn't have matched their offer.

    NAS needs help keeping both Weber and Suter, they could use some offense. Why not call? Franson for Gagner and Smid.

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  18. Spoiler

    From posted article I would have no difficulty signing Hannan as a 2 year bridge

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  19. TOJ, agreed. Sounds like he filled the role.

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  20. their second best defender (Tom Gilbert) suffered periods of ineffectiveness and then what appeared to be a crisis of confidence during the year

    Happily, neither condition lasted long.
    Gilbert had a damn good year.
    Don't believe Stauffer or Spec on this.

    In fact
    Don't ever believe anything Spec says about the D, he's hopeless.

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  21. Tambellini was intimating to expect more deals like the Smyth deal.

    Taking on an aging vet with 1-2 years left for next to nothing (hopefully getting a nice pick to go with it)

    So if we look at capstrung teams, what could you get?

    BUF has 12.4MM to sign 8 players (1.5MM/player)

    Jochen Hecht has one year left at $3.5MM and played 2nd PK C. (also took 3rd most FO on BUF with a poor 43.1%)

    I don't see any BUF D that would move.

    NJD has 12.1MM to sign 6 players, but one of those players is Parise and he is getting +7MM, so its really ~5MM to sign 5 players.

    NJD has Rolston with 5M (NTC, but could be waived)

    As for D NJD, they just signed Tallinder to a long deal, so I doubt it.

    White as 1 year left $3MM, and a NTC, but he could be waived.

    CAL has $7.5MM to sign 4 players, so its not impossible, but they'd love to dump Sarich with one year left at 3.6MM, but has a full NMC.

    The big bogey is Bouwmeester at $6.68 for the next 3 years. He has a NTC, but might move. Would you want that contract? Player is great, but contract not so much.

    SJ Sharks have 7.8MM to sign 5 players (1.3MM/player)

    Ryan Clowe is overpaid at $3.6 for 3LW and 2 years left, but LW is getting a little full on the Oilers. I bet you could get Clowe and their 1st next year for your 2nd and a C prospect.

    Not sure how they feel about Vlasic, but running out of D is one reason they didn't beat VAN, so not sure Wilson moves any.

    Vlasic played 1PK and didn't really play PP. He was 2nd on the team in TOI. Probably a long shot to get moved and he isn't really an overpay.

    WAS might want to move Poti, but no way he comes back to EDM.

    This is a really bizarre FA season. More spots than good players.

    Everyone, even DET, is going to have to pay over market to get someone

    DET has $16M to sign 6 players. Lots of space.

    They need to replace #2 and #4 of their top TOI Dmen. There are rumblings that they might trade Filppula if they can get the right Dman back. He's a 2C on the Oilers in heartbeat.

    Would you trade 3 years of Gilbert at $4M + for 2 years of Filppula at $3MM?

    Sorry, kinda started rambling there...

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  22. I wouldn't do the Gilbert deal, I agree that trading one of the 2 Actual NHL Dmen would be dumb if no D is coming back.

    Just threw it out there.

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  23. Spoiler:
    The other two are montador and Andy greene

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  24. Whitney XXXXX
    Peckham Gilbert
    Smid Petry
    Foster

    In theory, the Oilers are looking for Whitney's partner. If not then move Gilbert up with Whitney and put Peckham with Foster, in which case, thats just flat out gross.

    I'm slightly more comfortable with Smid playing with Petry than Peckham, not by much and that could change.

    Bottom line, go get a top 4 Dman, one that can play both PP and PK. Just to stabilize the D and give it some depth.

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  25. Ryan Clowe is overpaid at $3.6 for 3LW and 2 years left

    That's a helluva 3LW that has averaged 22-35-57, +7 over the past three seasons. Compares favourably to Dustin Penner (avg 24-24-48, even, $4.25 MM) and Ryan Smyth (avg 24-29-53, -3, $6.25 MM) to name a couple of close-to-home examples.

    Clowe could play on my third line any day.

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  26. Whatever defence pairings people want to fantasize about, can I recommend a moratorium on any thoughts to pair Smid with Peckham? They didn't play much together last year cuz both are mainly LD, but anytime they got caught out on a line change for more than 5 seconds the goddamned puck would be in our net. Ask Dennis.

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  27. Great twitter exchange bewteen Tony Gallagher (he who leads the "NHL hates the Canucks tinfoil hat brigade) and Bob McKenzie.

    Gallagher: Anyone find it disturbing TSN knows who trades whom less than five minutes after it is officially done? Talk about cosy with the league.

    McKenzie: @tg_gman I find that's usually what lazy reporters who don't do their job very well say to make themselves feel better.

    Haha!

    Bob McKenzie with a 1st round TKO.

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  28. @Woodguy: Ouch!

    @Bob McKenzie: You da man.

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  29. That's a classic line. Good for McKenzie.

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  30. Bruce,

    Wow, I misread my stats page.

    Thought Clowe was better than what I had in front of me.

    He actually led all SJS in PTS/60 5v5 and also lead all forwards in 5v5 ice time.

    My mistake, thanks for pointing it out.

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  31. Bruce: Okay. We'll trade Smid and keep Petry for the third pairing. :-)

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  32. I also like the fact that Clowe called Bieksa out for being a fake tough guy who picked his spots. I'm hoping Clowe grabs Bieksa next season and doesn't give him a chance to decline.

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  33. @LT: I think we should trade Smid and Peckham as a duo, to Calgary.

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  34. @LT: Props on the pic up top. Outstanding.

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  35. That D will still have them in contention for a lottery pick. Foster should be in consideration for a buy out IMO.

    I haven't done the math, but desn't Dithers need to spend some Katz cash yet? Why not put it to something worthwhile? 1 or 2 year overpays are ok at this point.

    Somebody mentioned Hamrlik - I'm good with that.

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  36. I haven't done the math, but desn't Dithers need to spend some Katz cash yet?

    They are at $44 million for 16 players, and that does not include Souray.

    So no.

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  37. Me thinks the Oil will add a lesser known UFA and a obscure Swedish import. Surely there has to be some unsigned players out there better then the current mix.

    Getting a dman from Nashville seems like the perfect match. Shouldnt be a hard sell to get the rights to Ward either.

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  38. The latest from Robert Tychkowski

    updates on

    -Souray
    -Smac..no!!
    -comments on Storts and JFJ

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  39. This guy has a pretty decent track record as far as internet rumor mongers go; broken a few trades in fact.

    http://hockeybroads.com/threads/27102-Quick-Hits-for-July-28th

    Says PHX may be interested in taking on Souray.

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  40. Go big or go home. Washington has a couple of nice young RH D and one of them is due for a big fat raise next year that "could" give them some cause for concern. They also have some pretty decent goalie prospects, one thats RFA right now, that could help here.

    Wonder which of our top LW prospects, cough MPS +, would be worth dangling to get them and how big that + would have to be?

    nasatem: a group of astronauts

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  41. clowe could play on any second line in the league, including mine, happily!

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  42. Woodguy-

    Great vid, that may be the best thing I'll see all month. If Richards signs somewhere else besides New York I'd be extremely surprised.

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  43. Off topic but anytime I get depressed re the Oilers depth chart at C I just look at Toronto's. Then I look at their prospect list. Then I look at their +- stats.

    How the hell did that team finish ahead of the Oilers last year even with H & H down and out and our D leaking like a sick dick? Reimer stood that tall? D experience? Eastern Conference?

    Wow. Good job Burkie.

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  44. Some interesting things from TreenasOil in the last few minutes. Not sure if she is as plugged in as she claims, but kind of fun anyhow

    TreenasOil Tracy Lane
    Oilers are going to target a UFA defenceman for the 3-4 slot have thier eye on 2 pending UFA's

    "Expect the unexpected" maybe another blast from the past to join the team next year.

    Flyers, Rangers and the Avalanche have been talking trade with the Oilers

    Oilers are looking to move Coglino and have had interest from 4 teams, one of them being the Senators.

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  45. She may just be Eklund for the oilers, but who knows.

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  46. from Aaron Portzline, Columbus and Hejda talking about a 3-4 year deal at 3-3.25 million. wow I thought he would go for half of that!

    Read below, from Portzline:
    But if you're Jan Hejda, you're in a good mood right now. It says here that his salary lands in the $3 million to $3.25 million average range if the Jackets re-sign him

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  47. Tracy Lane
    TreenasOil Tracy Lane
    Detroit has inquired about Gilbert...as per Garfield
    20 minutes ago

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  48. Val Bure excessively indignant to Pavel's exclusion from the HHOF inductee list this year:

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/sports/Bure+shocked+brother+Pavel+excluded+from+Hall+Fame/5020472/story.html

    He just keeps talking. I always liked Val as a player, but now I wonder what kind of guy he actually was/is. Seems like kind of a wiener.

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  49. I really think the Oilers need a couple of top 4 defencemen brought in either through free agency or trade. The blueline was a major problem last season, and they need to push the kids back down the depth chart.

    They need to get something like this rolling before they'll win any games:

    Whitney-Gilbert
    Hamrlik-Hannan
    Peckham-Smid
    Foster

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  50. LT (or anyone):

    Have you heard anything about this rumor that Klefbom might be selected 3rd overall in the Import Draft by the Hitmen?

    http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=934433

    http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=34261257&postcount=67

    That would be a surprising turn of events given what we heard at the draft, assuming Klefbom would report. I'd be surprised if someone would spend that high an import draft pick if they didn't know the player was coming over.

    Either way, not much of a wait, the import draft starts tomorrow morning at 7 am, we'll see if the Oil Kings select Gernat.

    http://www.leaguestat.com/chl/memcup/en/draft.php?draft_id=107

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  51. Someone know where Paul Ranger's been hiding?

    Guy just disappeared.

    As for Hedja I think he's a fine 3rd pairing guy.

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  52. Ashley: Well they're is a lot of inferior players to him the HHOF.

    Can't knick a guy for having no knees.

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  53. FPB

    I don't think Hejda is a third pairing guy if the market for him is a 3-3.25 million deal over 3-4 years. He was first pairing for a couple of years, is a second pairing now.

    Did nobody read Bruce's comments on Smid-Peckham?? They can't play together, please stop thinking they can. They are both rough and tumble but both need a puck mover to play with. Gilbert-Smid work together well, Petry-Peckham too. Gilbert Peckham go together well, Petry Smid too.

    It is that partner for Whitney we really need. Hejda is no first pairing dman but he is a decent second pairing guy and that would give the Oilers three sets of one PMD and one big shutdown guy. I think that would be a decent 6 if they could all stay healthy.

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  54. who is this Tracy Lane and her Garfield comments?

    Will be interesting to see if she is right.

    Cogliano for a half decent power forward who can play and pk and fight a bit would be fine with me, or a young third pairing type who has the potential to be second pairing.

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  55. Someone know where Paul Ranger's been hiding?

    His wikipedia page says he is currently attending the University of Ottawa. He's lucky he didn't play in a hockey market or his decision to walk away from the NHL would have went supernova.

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  56. Oilersfan: You think he can lend that kind of money?

    Possible, with defenseman it seems like either they'l get vastly overpaid, or left alone.

    He played 2nd pairing on CBJ, and had -0,8 REL corsi, and a +- of 0,08.

    It's not bad. But by 3rd pairing I meant more of : If you really want Hedja to have a positive effect.

    Depth is always good to have.

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  57. FPB, no one seems to talk about the details of what went down. Followed Paul Ranger closely myself since I carried him in a fantasy league for 3 seasons.

    Seemed to be improving steadily, relied upon then boom, gone. TB articles state some sort of personal crisis arose. He was speculated to either be unable to play hockey anymore or at least unable to at the level he wanted to.

    TB management were fully apprised of the situation and supportive, would only say they respected privacy and hoped he could one day return.

    TB fan threads reported numerous sightings during the rest of the year of Ranger at the rink, but always in civies, seemed to get along fine with his team mates. When approached he was cordial and signed autographs.

    It's a real mystery, but hopefully he's resolved whatever turmoil there was. It's rare this sort of thing happens; Chad Kilger and Jeff O'Neil come to mind, with O'Neil apparently unable to overcome the death of his brother.

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  58. speeds: Very interesting. I'll have to tune in.

    Re: Paul Ranger. I always suspect major injury when reading that a former NHL defensemen (who isn't 40) is taking univerity courses and is no longer in the league.

    Exceptions would be Tom Edur, who quit to become a Jehovah's Witness (I know, I was one) and guys who retired over contracts for a season or two before returning.

    If he's still any good, someone should check to see how the book learning is going.

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  59. With the defense, you have to think in pairings.

    The one move that the Oilers could make is to get a good skating, good checking defensive defenseman for the left side and pair him with Gilbert on the 2nd line.

    If we can sign two such players pair each good puck mover (Whitney, Gilbert, Petry) with a good defensive guy.

    I'd also consider moving Smid and Foster if the price is right.

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  60. Also, Peckham-Whitney may be a good pairing, since Whitney's a good enough defender to get back and cover for Theo's mistakes.

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  61. I'd disagree re: pairings. Plenty of successful teams have essentially had the approach of getting each guy out for a target number of minutes and then figure out how to do so through tweaks and player-matching. I remain an advocate of primarily matching the D to the other team's forward line (and perhaps one forward) rather than the currently favored approach of matching forwards to forwards.

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  62. LMHF: Whitney, when healthy, will likely be the one playing the toughs. SO its likely whomever he is paired with will likely face the toughs. If its Gilbert, so be it, but I'm hoping for someone better.

    Horcoff will also likely be out there. But if Horcoff is playing with Hall and Eberle, I'm not sure thats a desired matchup for the Oilers, having Hall and Eberle playing against the best in the NHL while trying to tread water.

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  63. I'm late tot he party, but I'll throw in my $0.02 anyway.

    I agree that Hejda would be an excellent addition, but I wouldn't expect that to mean Petry returns to OKC. Despite a few bumps in the road, he looked like he was definitely ready to make the jump to the NHL, and while we should look to be adding some quality NHLers to the lineup, the focus for this season should still be development. And what better way to develop a guy like Petry than to give him secondary minutes with a quality vetran partner like Whitney?

    This is how I'd do it:

    Hejda - Gilbert
    Whitney - Petry
    Smid - Foster/Peckham

    If they get a RD instead of Hejda, they could do the same for Peckham pairing him with a guy like Gilbert

    Whitney - RD (Montador?)
    Peckham - Gilbert
    Smid - Petry/Foster

    Or better yet, get a guy who can play both RD and LD (like Hannan) and give yourself some options.

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  64. Can Shae Weber be signed to an offer sheet this year? I would guess Nashville would match any offer worth making, but if I'm the Oilers, its still one of the first calls I make on Friday.

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  65. the Preds took Weber to arbitration, so he can't be signed to an offer sheet.

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