The Edmonton Oilers drafted Ryan Nugent-Hopkins yesterday, giving the club a potential elite level center for the first time in a generation. Seventeen years ago this club boasted youth and skill in abundance at the position (Weight, Arnott) but the 2000's were a tough time at C.
With RNH and a position switch among the gifted young wingers possible, the team could have impressive depth when those items are added to Gagner, Lander and others.
It's all projection at this point, but these young men are bona fide.
I think we should expect a much different draft one year from now. The first round pick should have exceptional value and with the blue featured heavily it should dovetail nicely for the Oilers. After that, the cluster of picks that began with Jordan Eberle will begin getting paid in full and winning will become important for the first time in years.
- #1 overall- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Immediately the best prospect in the system, RNH is a vital pick in the development of this cluster. If he is in fact an elite level playmaker, the Oilers have at least four outstanding candidates for chemistry on the top line and powerplay.
- #19 overall- D Oscar Klefbom: I talk about a complete defender a lot because they're really important to a team's overall success. Klefbom's numbers in the SEL don't tell the whole offensive story, but when facing kids his own age the young man posted impressive crooked numbers. I'll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects (summer edition) tomorrow morning; Klfebom is going to be an interesting player to slot.
- #31 overall- D David Musil: I'm a little surprised by the reaction to his selection. He was safely in my top 30, so getting him at thirty-one is a nice bonus to my way of thinking. I'm all for players with a nice range of skills, but defensemen who can make the safe play have value. Musil (imo) is another MBS 2nd rd gem--a player who fills a specific slot in the lineup and is likely to exceed GP expectations for second round picks. Redline ranked him as the 5th best defenseman in the entire draft, one behind Klfebom. I'm not sure where he'll be in my top 20 tomorrow, but it'll probably surprise some readers. I can't really see a reason to dislike this selection.
- #62 overall- G Samu Perhonen: Matt Bugg dropped by Nation Radio today and riffed on the depth selections in this draft (he hit a big fly; that guy knows stuff). In regard to Perhonen, he gave me the impression that this is the ultimate risk/reward pick. We could be looking at a quality starter or a dud, with dud rising. The best thing about picking this guy at #62 is that most of the surer things were off the board.
- #74 overall- C Travis Ewanyk: Future role player has a nice range of skills and therefore a few slots he could fill. PF size and style, he can win faceoffs and projects as a future checking center. I don't know that he's going to bring enough offense to make the NHL, but he was chosen in the range where there's risk involved with every selection.
- #92 overall- D Dillon Simpson: Bugg came to the rescue with this player too, describing a player who has a nice range of skills but some chaos too. I have no idea if he or a Brandon Davidson type will end up winning the day, but I think that's the race he's going to be involved in. Third pairing puck mover, that kind of thing.
- #114 overall- C Tobias Rieder: Redline report loves him, describing Rieder as an "undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity." Rieder impressed as a rookie in a very good league and according to Bugg is a guy who will work hard in tough areas to win battles. He was taken at the point in the draft where you shouldn't expect anything, but it's also true that Rieder is probably a better NHL prospect than a couple of the kids Edmonton picked before him.
- #122 overall- D Martin Gernat: Bugg started talking and wouldn't stop when it came to Gernat. Listening to Matt, I got the feeling (actually he said it) that he felt Gernat had a real chance to be the best pick on day 2 by the Oilers. Huge kid (6.05, 187) and considered somewhat similar to Marincin (lower ceiling) in style. Raw prospect, will take time but he's certainly a player of interest.
- #182 overall- G Frans Tuohimaa: Oilers saw him good and Bugg suggested he's a guy they might like to come over in fall 2012. Has a nice SP in junior and Bugg told me that he's definitely a worthwhile prospect, but other than that there isn't much available.
Hope you enjoyed it, I enjoyed your comments.
I think this was a great weekend. Hope that one of Ewanyk or Simpson pans out.
ReplyDeleteI think some of us would genuinely just like to say thanks for all you do. At that seemed like a nice way to do it, one year out
ReplyDeleteNow our luck ........the 2012 draft will be in Calgary or Winnepeg
Lowetide even if you are going to the draft on nation radio dollars i would love to donate a little $ for the amazing radio shows that get podcasted for free. Its an idea i have been thinking about for a while. The quality is far to good to be getting them for free. Set up and pay pal account and watch the donations pour in.
ReplyDeleteIn a time when being an oiler fan should be at the least a little work, you have somehow managed to make this past year surprisingly one of the more enjoyable in recent memories. Thanks a lot and keep up the great work
OJ, others: I appreciate it and am touched, but you know I look at this blog as a 2-way street. I post on something and then the dialogue in the comments is my payback.
ReplyDeleteHow about this: if I ever need money, I'll add paypal and request donations.
Good? I hope it doesn't come off as being an ass, but I don't need it and consider this blog a 2-way street.
LT
ReplyDeleteFinancial writer Bill Fleckenstin does what you do with hockey and Oilers.. Twice daily comments 5 days a week on days that the financial markets are open and charges $200/year. Fantastic value to me.
Not sure how you could do it it certainly seems you could get some recompense for what is clearly a labour of love. Flecks stein has a huge paid following and everyone acknowledges the value.
Course, you could not ban Dennis without giving him his $$ back :-))
Keep up the most prolific high quality work!!
OJ: Yeah, I'm looking at ways to monetize; it'll probably drive everyone away. :-)
ReplyDeleteBunside Article on ABC about the smyth trade...
ReplyDeleteDoesn't sound promising...Lombardi "doens't want to trade smyth"...also sounds like he wants a warm body in return...
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/sports/pro/hockey&sa=NHL&eid=6704102
Thanks LT for another year of great draft company
ReplyDeleteGlasgow Oil
Know conventional wisdom is hits per views. Understand that model has advertisers pay. Do know major newspapers have moved off that model because it does not work for them
ReplyDeleteJust know Flecks reasonable annual subscription has worked exceptionally well for him. Do not think he does it for $$ but as forum to throw out and discuss cutting edge financial ideas.
Deepest thanks LT for all the work you do on the radio and across the web. The last 24 hours have been a blast but at the same time, I'm glad the agonizing is finally over and the picks have been made.
ReplyDeleteTime to do up a whole new depth chart!
With the 200th overall the Los Angeles Kings take MICHAEL SCHUMACHER
ReplyDeleteWow. Talk about a radical career change.
TOJ: Funny you'd mention Winnipeg - they lost out on hosting the draft in 1995 due to the (at that time) imminent relocation of the team to Minnesota (which obviously never came to fruition).
ReplyDeleteI'd have to wonder if the NHL would consider taking the draft there as soon as possible to make up for that. I'd have no issues with it, but for LT's sake, I'd rather see them have the damn thing somewhere like Chicago.
auria: apparently a brand of TV (at least according to a quick Google search) - at first, I thought it was a section of the female nipple, but not so...
Hey Lowetide, if it is a 2 way street and you do indeed learn from all of us as well, as you have mentioned in the past, maybe you should donate some cash our way? ;-)
ReplyDeleteJake: Which is WHY I never force the issue. :-)
ReplyDeleteUlysses Everett McGill: I am the only daddy you got! I'm the damn paterfamilias!
ReplyDeleteWharvey Gal: But you ain't bona fide!
danny: lol. Crazy funny. "You ain't bona fide." Killer.
ReplyDeleteWell if ON is footing for you to do the play-by-play, then the rest of us can ante up for the color guy.Pat would do, unless there's any sort of debauchery involved.
ReplyDelete[He'd want to have the play-by-play on that part of the gig.]
you mention that our pick at 62 will either be a total stud or a total dud.... seems like the right pick then.
ReplyDeleteWith goalies, unless they're awesome, they're useless. There is no 4th line for goalies, and you can always sign a life long backup in free agency, so you draft goalies who have potential to turn into vezina contenders, even if there is a 90% chance they never make the show. Love the pick (2 Fin goalies in 1 draft seems great to me, gotta love what the Fins are producing lately).
Boy, came to LT to get the dish on the draft and now I could really use some katwalk shoes.
ReplyDelete/effectiveadvertising
It looks like a pretty decent crop of prospects all in all. Thanks for the great coverage LT.
ReplyDeleteHopefully when you're at the draft next year, we don't have a smug Tambo talking about how excited he is to have the 1st overall pick for the third year in a row. :p
Jay: I think Tambellini has realized that if the Oilers are still at 30th next year, he won't survive to see them make the playoffs and (hopefully!) win the cup. I don't think Katz will fire him immediately, but unless the Oilers suddenly made a big jump up the standings in 2012-13, I don't see him lasting much longer.
ReplyDeleteOutstanding job as always LT. This is the first place I start my online day and the place to finish as well.
ReplyDeleteWe won't know for several years how good this draft is but if a year from now, we can say the kind of things about this class that we did after last year's (and the 2010 class might be the best since 1979 & 1980), then MBS will truly be "the MBS".
Knighthood will beckon.
I raise a glass to your sir.
LT :: I come here to hear your comments. The comments afterwards are just a bonus. All day, this was the first place I'd check to see what people were saying about the Oilers draft picks, 'cuz I knew you'd have the goods. OilersNation should send you. You're the rep with all the goods on the kids.
ReplyDeleteI just have one question. With all the young depth we now have at forward, does it concern you that we don't have any comparables on the blueline or in net? (I'm one of those that believe that our all of D were simply asked to play above their skill level last year. Once you add one top end player, everything will work itself out.)
Stefan: The blue is progressing imo. Petry, Peckham are coming along nicely and Marincin had a solid half-season.
ReplyDeleteToday, they picked some very good defenders imo. It's getting better, but they do need a stopgap.
I'll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects (summer edition) tomorrow morning; Klfebom is going to be an interesting player to slot.
ReplyDeleteYikes. You just put in a zillion hours on the draft and follow that up with a top 20? God love ya.
One thing on Ewanyk. He played a lot of his games on a line with Abney and Stephenson. One of the few exceptions is that he had a hat trick one game and all the goals were assisted by St Croix.
He could have a lot more offence in him if he plays with better offensive players (for example at the world U-18s).
I am excited they were able to get him.
Today, they picked some very good defenders imo. It's getting better, but they do need a stopgap
ReplyDeleteYup.
We've talked about this for months-they still need 2 defenders-1 to play with Gilbert and 1 to play with Whitney.We'll find out in the next 10 days if winning some hockey games is on their agenda for next season.
Thanks for all the hard work-I can barely find the time to read all of your posts,I can't imagine how much time goes into writing them.
Hey Lowetide, if it is a 2 way street and you do indeed learn from all of us as well, as you have mentioned in the past, maybe you should donate some cash our way?
ReplyDeleteHe's been sending me monthly cheques for years.
SS: Cheques like trampolines.
ReplyDeleteTalk around to as much as teams possible. There's always a cheap defender on the block.
Spacek could be easily taken for a 3rd/4th. 1 Year left.
1. RNH on the team but no Smytty:
ReplyDeleteGAGN HORC HEMS
HALL HOPK EBER
PAAJ LAND OMAR
JONE COGL HART
2. Smytty on the team but RNH sent back to Jrs:
SMYT HORC HEMS
HALL GAGN EBER
PAAJ LAND OMAR
JONE COGL HART
3. Both on the team:
SMYT HORC HEMS
HALL HOPK EBER
PAAJ GAGN OMAR
JONE LAND COGL
4. Neither on the team:
HALL HORC EBER
PAAJ GAGN HEMS
JONE LAND OMAR
JACQ COGL HART
Some observations...
--the last way seems to be the surest way to tank. We seem pretty thin without some additions. If not Smyth and RNH, then who? Are they planning on taking a run at Ryder or someone similar? Get a face off guy and move Gagner to wing? And they would need to add salary unless an expensive Dman is coming this way.
--Gagner is a bit of an odd duck to fit in, because he should be playing with goal-scoring and/or size, both of which we lack. And I don't like him playing with Hemsky (2 playmakers on same line).
--addition of either RNH or Smyth should push Jacques off the roster (please please don't re-sign him). Addition of both would likely push Hartikainen off as he wouldn't face waivers. Is this having an effect on the Smyth deal?
--ALL of these line-ups are short on experience. And without the addition of some kind of vet centre, there's going to be a heavy heavy reliance on poor young Anton Lander.
--damn we lack physicality and strength up the middle.
Spacek was great for us in 06.I'm not expecting a Pronger or a Seabrook,just a couple of capable defenseman with NHL experience.
ReplyDeleteThe Top Twenty plus graduates is gonna be a doozy. The Top 10 is sheer quality. 2-3 more real nice pieces to come next year.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm betting Petry gets snubbed for 1st spot again. Poor sap.
And I think Vandevelde looked like he might be able to eat Cogs' lunch at the end of the year. We need size, toughness and face-off ability a lot more than we need speed. He might squeak into that terrific Top 10.
We've Got Talent! Lol.
It's time to get this show on the road. Headed down the path to success. Add a couple of vets and lets fire up the engine. Even trying to compete, with Khabby in net, the worst they'll be picking next year is about 12th. And more likely quite a bit lower. I don't think we can expect a Stamkosian leap in Hall's numbers and it would take something like that to push us any closer to the playoffs (and barring someone like Weber or Green gets added to the team). Trade Cogs. Drop Jacques off at the bust station. Find some useful vets, like Smyth and we're prancing down the primrose path.