Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Draft Week Post #7: Trading the First Overall Pick

RNH will be an Edmonton Oiler Friday night. Unless. Unless Florida or another team offers something so extremely attractive that ST can't turn it down. What would it look like? Haven't a clue. Terry Jones has an article up on the subject that covers the bases nicely. There are rumors suggesting trade talk is heating up, but I don't think it should be a big worry for Oiler fans. If they do trade down, one expects the club will have some kind of assurance that their player will be there at the time of the Oilers selection.

The gap between RNH and the rest of the pack is significant enough for nine out of ten scouts to name him top dog in the Bob McKenzie survey. Should a team step up and make a deal, they must bridge that gap between 1 and 2 (plus more) in order to win the day.

Unless Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor and the scouts tell ST that one of Couturier, Larsson, Landeskog, Strome or Huberdeau are close enough for jazz, Burnaby Ryan will be an Oiler by 5:20 Friday night. I still believe that Sean Couturier is an option, probably Adam Larsson too.

I suspect it's about 99% that the Oilers take RNH; only a loose cannon can change it.

86 comments:

  1. Been hearing the Florida rumours all day-I'll believe it when I see it.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I hope your right LT. @THNRyanKennedy thinks Florida may be in the mix

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/291500-senators-eye-oilers-no-1-pick

    ReplyDelete
  4. speeds: I remember at the lottery, Bryan Murray was very forceful in saying that he has his guy in mind, while everyone else was downplaying things. He has some assets to get things done. It'll be an interesting next three days.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Just say no. Pick who Stu wants, don't monkey with it. Not worth the risk

    ReplyDelete
  6. I'd still like to trade down a few spots if there's a decent (not extravagant) return. I can't see it happening, though - teams don't much around with top picks unless there are twins involved.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'm still hoping a little for Couturier. Very stubborn. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  8. I would still be totally ok with Bogosian and Couturier. If the stars could ever align for that to ever work out.

    I really feel SC is going to be the real deal.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Off topic, but Dan Barnes leaving the sports page. So much for the one guy who showed signs of objectivity.

    ReplyDelete
  10. mc79hockey mc79hockey
    So @jrnlbarnes is done with sport & has serious new pic? Sport journalism in YEG just got dumber; a higher % of it is done by @dantencer now
    54 minutes ago

    Jumped or pushed?

    ReplyDelete
  11. "I'm still hoping a little for Couturier. Very stubborn. :-)"

    Ditto.

    I'm more hoping the Oilers can get McNeill at 19....hoping for Couturier right now seems like such a lost cause.

    ReplyDelete
  12. rickibear

    On Saturday I put up a link referring to RNH's stats before the WHL. The year after he was drafted first overall in the WHL he played Major Midget in Vancouver and got 40 goals, 47 assists for 87 points in 37 games as a 15 year old playing against the best 16 year olds in the Vancouver area, which is a big area.

    The year before that, the one that earned him the WHL first overall pick was his last year in Bantam where he scored 109 goals and 98 assists for 207 points in 75 games. So he actually scored more goals than assists that year, and was just shy of being equal the next year.

    His first year in the WHL he scored 27 goals and 40 assists for 67 points.

    We don't have his pp % in those years

    But what we have is how many goals to assists he scored, and it shows me if anything that this year was the anomaly, most likely explainable by the poor teammates he had 5x5 and the fact that Red Deer rolled 4 lines.

    Looking at one year and putting it in a vacuum doesn't give the full picture and I think is part of the reason why the scouts have him #1, going back over the last 4 years he has been the best player in his league and continued that into his draft year.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Why would he have been pushed? Great reporter, best sports guy in the city.

    The contrast between old photo ("I AM A SPORTS JOURNO. I WEAR GOLF SHIRTS AND TURN MY HEAD AT A JAUNTY ANGLE.") and his new one ("I AM A SERIOUS EDITORIAL WRITER. I WEAR A JACKET AND TIE AND LOOK MORE DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE CAMERA. MY GLASSES ARE LESS FASHIONABLE. I AM EXPRESSIONLESS BECAUSE I AM THINKING ABOUT SERIOUS MATTERS.") kills me.

    ReplyDelete
  14. oilerfan:
    1. dGo to whl stats
    2. Select leaders
    3. Select 2009/10 season
    4. Select PP assists (21)
    5. Select PP goals (11)

    32 of his 65 reg points come from PP. he is still past the 60% 40% ratio. thus an unsustainable PP production rate.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Jumped or pushed?

    Since he's going to the editorial page, it looks like a promotion.

    The fish wraps just got fishier.

    ReplyDelete
  16. LT: I also hope for couturier. If you could get Bogosian and Couturier for the 1st wouldn't you have to consider it? Especially if Stu says he likes Couturier the Nuge. And i guess that is what it comes down to. If Sty says RNH is the surefire #1, then you don't deal him. If he says there is not
    much separation between him and the other players, you turn the pick into multiple assets and still get your a guy you like as much. that is just smart asset management.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Lowetide : I'm still hoping a little for Couturier. Very stubborn. :-)


    Shouldn't be a problem. Just get Tambo to trade down to the #5 - 7 spot. Good chance SC is still there.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Oilersfan: There's a giant leap between Bantam and WHL. Not comparable.

    He's playing against the toughest now, and he struggled to score, and do it at EV.

    Playing against guys who you outclass by a mile do not prove you can score.

    ReplyDelete
  19. It's RNH with a bullet. I don't mind Maguire's pick. I like Larsson a lot. But in a mock draft I can't see how the Oilers can take anyone else. If someone like 9 hits their full potential Mgmt would be crucified for not taking them. Nor can I see anyone offering up anything Tambi would want beyond something like Seguin, Tavares, Stamkos kind of offers. Doughty.

    Just not going to happen, but putting out the idea means he gets a bit of a peek at the hands other GMs are holding. He gets to hear what they're willing to give up and know that's their lowball. Perhaps he pushes to see how much more he can get. What would Ottawa have offered to move up? Or add the pick? FLA? Do any of the big boys want it? Answering calls places one in a position of power. I imagine there is quite a bit of verbal dancing on the phones this time of the year. And all that time at the waltz should birth information.

    But it ends there. Unless the aforementioned are coming the other way.

    We have also yet to see MBS take a defenseman with a high pick. Hasn't happened very often throughout the Oiler's history.

    The Kid is supposed to be special according to the theme of today's Jones article. The Oil are all over him. Want him bad.

    That's why its RNH, CGY 3rd, 2012 2nd, and Hamilton for Seguin.

    Smytty for LA's 2012 pick back. Smid, Cogliano to DET for their first rounder.

    Draft McNeill, Puempel/Ritchie, and Musil. Gagner and Teubert for Bogosian. Sign Fiddler and O'Brien. Re-sign Martin Gerber.

    SMYT HORC HEMS
    HALL SEGU EBER
    PAAJ LAND OMAR
    JONE FIDD HART

    WHIT BOGO
    OBRI GILB
    PECK PETR

    GERB
    DUBN

    And 3 more great kids in the sys.

    Or maybe they'll just take RNH. And hopefully Smytty. Let the kids tear up the second-stringers.

    ReplyDelete
  20. So FPB? You saying RNH isn't going to pan or won't top out at SC's level?

    Betting man by chance?

    ReplyDelete
  21. It's RNH with a bullet

    All indications are for sure. Have to think that % of scouts having him #1 means something. Only mark against him from an Oiler standpoint might be the LH shot.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Cabbie, agreed on the LH shot. RH would be ideal.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hockey News picked Larsson first in their mock too.

    RHN still has question marks.

    Larsson's play is solid across the board, with the only question is how 'elite' he'll end up being.

    In Stu we trust, but I'm still thinking Larsson first (or Col will grab him) then trade up into the top 5-7 to get Strome, who's similar in a lot of ways to RNH, other than a few "intangibles".

    ReplyDelete
  24. While I still believe they'll pick RNH, the person I've still wanted all along is Larsson. The pick does not need to step in and help this year so he can have another year in Sweden to develop.

    Larsson is going to eat big minutes on the blue for a long time and be rock solid. Maybe not sexy, but solid.

    McGuire choosing Larsson is the kiss of death for that pick though. Not gonna happen now unless they trade down - and I think it's all smoke and mirrors at this point.

    RNH is who gets picked.

    ReplyDelete
  25. FPB/Ricki: I think Scott Reynolds managed to put to bed this EV/PP scoring issue in his great piece at C&B (and referenced by LT on his show).

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/6/14/2222329/is-even-strength-scoring-more-important

    Unless you have some new take on the data or other information, it might be time to find a new criticism.

    Spoiler: interesting plan, but I think it could be an overpay for Seguin. He's getting a lot of unjustified fawning (see TSN last night) for being on a cup-winning team. He may well be a true star in the making, but given that he's getting the easy minutes on a championship team, it's too early to say.

    Rick: I can't speak to the Hockey News reasoning, but Pierre McGuire took Larsson 1st in the TSN mock last night simply on the basis that the Oil don't have enough in defensive prospects. Apparently he forgot the hole is just as wide at C.

    ReplyDelete
  26. RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau, Couturier... you know, it's funny. Had we just started Dubnyk more this year (or even Gerber), we may be picking 3rd or 4th in this draft and we'd be thrilled to get any of them. Instead, we fight over who's the best of the best...

    I blame Khabibulin for all the discord in Oilers' Nation! :)

    ReplyDelete
  27. Woodguy said...

    "Jumped or pushed?

    Since he's going to the editorial page, it looks like a promotion.

    The fish wraps just got fishier."

    Is it all that uncommon for an individual to get "promoted" after having caused grief to his superiors?

    Nope, can't think of a relevant example :)

    ReplyDelete
  28. Cactus: We talked about ratio, not overall points.

    By ratio:

    Schremp, Perry, Kelman, Nash, Little.

    The two successful ones as 6''3+.

    And size does indeed increase the chance of success.

    I'd say we need to go deeper.

    ReplyDelete
  29. line's mock draft has the Oilers taking Musil with their second first round pick:

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2011-06-22-red-line-report-mock-nhl-draft_n.htm

    ReplyDelete
  30. Can I change my Nation Radio submission? (nuts)
    I agree, unless by some miracle that the Oilers and MBS can keep a secret (history would dictate not) and the OIlers still have the number one pick... RNH will be an Oilers. I too maintain that both Larsson and Couturier are excellent options and would be my top two choices but maybe the potential in RNH is more established than what's in the internet.

    I also don't see the Oilers trading the pick unless its huge over payment from the buyer, and as much as I like to think the OIlers will be able to get another top 8 pick, I think that is a unlikely scenario.

    GXL

    ReplyDelete
  31. What WOULD it take?

    Gudbrandson?

    Gudbrandson+....?

    I think I'd need it to be Gudbrandson and the 3rd, but I'd be fine including the 19th going back the other way.

    Can't imagine Florida doing that though.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Geez LT

    Least we know John McKinnon reads your Blog. Surprised the LeGrande Orange/Singleton reference was not attributed to you, though.

    Disagree with his point -re sentimental reason for Smyth to return. He is a good hockey player who would help our young players develop. Or does the Plan call for us to lose, simply to lose.

    ReplyDelete
  33. wow...the arguments here are getting really off the wall.

    i love the arguments stating we CAN't consider his prior years. or better yet, the line in the sand that is height. or a magic ratio.

    i respect a lot of the opinions on here, but it really seems like there's a lot of arguments to support opinions, rather than discovery to come up with an opinion.

    no on has talked about the pareto principle, for instance, a it refers to hockey (especially RNH)... if you're going to come up with a "Theory" that supports your claim for #1, have it work outside of this one year's draft bubble.

    the lack of baseline discussion is troublesome.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Cactus: I was held to the look at the whole draft standard.

    I have been informed that you have to look at the sub set as a whole in a full review.

    So scotts review does not hold just like mine does not hold.

    In fact my sub set has less variance. Important to real trending.

    Looking at goals well actually acounts for the only factor in winning a game. goals in VS Goals out. I would think that is a little more important.

    Interesting that my post that questions the unsustainability of RNH Junior production should disappear from the comments.

    RNH need to be 3pts better than the leading NHL PP point getter the last two years to achieve his expected NHLE @ 22.

    The elite PP producers have a Standard 60%EV 40%PP so from RNH expect EV NHLE (35PTS)he would have to get 22 more points than the expected 23pp he would get based on EV production.

    His Expected even production is in the fisher, Horcoff range.

    Is he a generational PP producer that has to be Better than Crosby , Ovechkin, The sedins, Stamkos, St. Louis.

    Is that rational thinking?
    Is it even saw him good?
    IS it want him to be good?

    ReplyDelete
  35. I wouldn't mind a trade with Florida. Florida takes RNH, COL takes Landeskog, and the Oilers have their pick of the rest (likely Larssen).

    Of course it will depend upon what the Oilers get back. Perhaps they could get a guy like Drew Shore.

    Sure hope the Oilers don't screw up the 19th pick by going for Musil there. He will likely be there at 31.

    The problem with going for Larssen and skipping RNH is that the Oilers are still left with no #1 C.

    ReplyDelete
  36. If the rumours on Gudbranson are true that'd be fine.

    Gudbranson + the 3rd would be pleasing to have.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Is it all that uncommon for an individual to get "promoted" after having caused grief to his superiors?

    Nope, can't think of a relevant example :)


    Who did Barnes cause grief for?

    ReplyDelete
  38. mc79hockey said...
    Is it all that uncommon for an individual to get "promoted" after having caused grief to his superiors?

    Nope, can't think of a relevant example :)

    "Who did Barnes cause grief for?"

    Just speculation on my part but the Oilers have "influenced" the assignment of journalists in the past if they were unhappy with the coverage.

    Just ask John Short.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Sometimes I read comments from people on Oilers-related message boards and I wonder if they wear tinfoil hats.

    The X-Files had less conspiracy theories.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Sometimes I read comments from people on Oilers-related message boards and I wonder if they wear tinfoil hats.

    This from a guy wearing a gas mask. I'm just saying...

    ReplyDelete
  41. Cactus said...

    Spoiler: interesting plan, but I think it could be an overpay for Seguin.

    Ah well, it was mostly a toungue-in-cheek exercise anyway. It would be easier to hang onto RNH and all the other assets.

    Still when I look at that line up and its balance between vets and youth, to me it looks more like a proper rebuilding line-up than if there were no Fiddler, O'Brien, Smyth.

    ReplyDelete
  42. With all this pre-draft(will they be stupid enough to trade away the 1st overall pick)tension, I just ordered 30 cans of bitter, 30 cans of Guinness, and 30 bottles of Cobra lager.

    Hopefully it should get me through the weekend ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Given that it's looking more and more likely that Larsson could fall to the Avs as the 2nd bpa, how monumentally stupid is their trade for Erik Johnson looking?

    Would Oiler Nation accept a pick swap with the Avs OR if optics demand, agree to lay off RNH and draft Larsson instead? In return we'd send them the 19th and get Paul Stasny in return.

    From all accounts, Stasny wants out of Colorado and presumably the Avs would rather draft RNH over Larsson. If the Oil came out of the first round with a C in Stasny and D in Larsson and the Avs in turn come out with a C in RNH and a 19th, that seems like reasonable value for both squads. This assumes the Avs win on the 1st for 2nd pick swap and we win on the Stasny for 19 swap.


    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  44. Lee said...

    "Given that it's looking more and more likely that Larsson could fall to the Avs as the 2nd bpa, how monumentally stupid is their trade for Erik Johnson looking?"

    Not stupid at all if they don't take Larsson, which they won't.

    Both Hubderdeau and Landeskog will go before him.

    Quand?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hunter, I'd be surprised if that order isn't what prevents you from making it through the weekend.

    I'm off camping from Thursday through the weekend, so no draft for me. I'll come back all sore and hopefully refreshed, and then I get to pull my hair out over what the Oilers have done.

    I'll be sure to take a few hours to get caught up here with LT's great draft posts, and then I'll get to enjoy the usual angst and hand wringing on the comment threads =).

    ReplyDelete
  46. DSF, I'm afraid you might be right, something about Lou snagging Couturier or having Larsson just fall into his lap annoys me something aweful, oh well.

    ReplyDelete
  47. The year after he was drafted first overall in the WHL he played Major Midget in Vancouver and got 40 goals, 47 assists for 87 points in 37 games as a 15 year old playing against the best 16 year olds in the Vancouver area, which is a big area.

    Actually the Major Midget league here in BC, covers more than Vancouver. There are 8 teams and three of them are based in the lower mainland while the rest are spread out throughout the province.

    ReplyDelete
  48. "Not stupid at all if they don't take Larsson, which they won't."

    It's still stupid if Larsson is considered as the 2nd bpa in the draft. Essentialy the Avs traded 2 very good players (Stewart and Shattenkirk) to acquire a franchise defensemen when 1 looks to fall into their lap at the draft anyway. Sure they can mitigate the stupidity by bypassing Larsson for a positional need but that is counter intuitive to the paradigm of drafting the bpa regardless of position. It's especially stupid considering Johnson was trending downward in his development at the time they acquired him. Bottom line, they bought high on Johnson and if they bypass Larsson, they sell low on their 2nd overall pick.

    Compound that with the Anderson for Elliot swap and Colorado's made some very questionable personnel decisions of late. Thankfully, they're in our division!

    ReplyDelete
  49. I agree with Lee.

    I made research on a previous thread with advanced stats and EJ and Shattenkirk are at similar levels, but Kevin is one year younger.

    They just swapped Stewart for Mcclement. Which is terrible.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Is it all that obvious that Larsson is the best player available? Or maybe COL operates on the philosophy of always taking forwards with high picks that has been frequently espoused here.

    Certainly there's no case that can be made for "monumental stupidity".

    Not to mention this comment is coming with the 20-20 hindsight we have today that COL has the 2nd overall pick. That's exactly the kind of misguided criticism that's prevalent on hockey boards.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Spoiler: I shout out that trade the day it came.

    I think the only ''monumental'' errors to be made is Landeskog.

    Sure he'l be a fine player but I think his ceiling is too low to make it appreciable. Makes me feel like Horton.

    ReplyDelete
  52. I agree with Lee.

    Thanks FPB, first time I've seen that on the site. I may frame it. lol

    ReplyDelete
  53. Not to mention this comment is coming with the 20-20 hindsight we have today that COL has the 2nd overall pick. That's exactly the kind of misguided criticism that's prevalent on hockey boards.

    Trading Shattenkirk and Stewart for Johnson and Maclement was monumentally stupid regardless of where the Avs ultimately ended up in the standings.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Blogger Lee said...

    "Not stupid at all if they don't take Larsson, which they won't."

    It's still stupid if Larsson is considered as the 2nd bpa in the draft. Essentialy the Avs traded 2 very good players (Stewart and Shattenkirk) to acquire a franchise defensemen when 1 looks to fall into their lap at the draft anyway. Sure they can mitigate the stupidity by bypassing Larsson for a positional need but that is counter intuitive to the paradigm of drafting the bpa regardless of position. It's especially stupid considering Johnson was trending downward in his development at the time they acquired him. Bottom line, they bought high on Johnson and if they bypass Larsson, they sell low on their 2nd overall pick.

    Taking defensemen in the top 5 is "monumentally stupid" unless they are generational talents.

    I haven't seen one expert who thinks Larsson projects in that fashion.

    #2/#3 defensemen are not all that hard to find though trade or free agency.

    ReplyDelete
  55. DSF: They weren't a lot of D-Men drafted N1. The spot they have if they are ''generational'' talents.

    Lidstrom, Pronger and Niedermayer are arguably that.

    3rd, top 5 and top 5.

    It's a gamble for sure, but it makes your odds at a stud better.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Larsson is projected to be a solid 2 Dman that can do it all.. just may not have the offensive game to be an elite #1..

    ReplyDelete
  57. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Lee, you weren't commenting on the merits of the trade itself but "in light of Colorado having the 2nd overall pick and Adam Larsson available" (paraprased).

    If you want to discuss the trade in and of itself, that's fine, I don't have a problem with that. But the above is unfair framing to my eyes.

    ReplyDelete
  59. uni:

    Camping instead of fretting about the Oilers sounds like the perfect thing.

    Once they take RNH, I don't give a shit who they draft, and I know almost nothing about him other than what I read on this computer they allow me to use at the public library.

    ReplyDelete
  60. That's 90 cans of beer Hunter-you realise the draft is 2 days,yes..?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Taking defensemen in the top 5 is "monumentally stupid" unless they are generational talents.

    Is there any proof to support this statement? Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty aren't Bobby Orr, but they were damn good value as #2 picks.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Lee, you weren't commenting on the merits of the trade itself but "in light of Colorado having the 2nd overall pick and Adam Larsson available" (paraprased).

    That post had many layers. To paraphrase Ben Stiller in Extras, "I made it that way." lol

    Actually, we're digressing from the more important point which is that the Oil may have a real opportunity to acquire both the 1C (Stasny) and 1D (Larsson) they covet with Stasny potentially on the trading block. I hope it's an option Tambi is exploring.

    ReplyDelete
  63. @ Lee
    I dont agree with you. Colorade obtained a very young but a D man with a lot of potential to be a top pairing one soon.
    Now I will be surprised if they dont draft Larsson despite fans wanting Landeskog.
    And having two potential top pairing d-men gives you a top pairing for your defense!

    Johnson-Larsson pairing can be a cornerstone of a very special defense for years to come unless they become stupid and trade someone else.

    If you look at Stewarts underlying numbers, they werent good either for this season.
    he had very high O-zone start not good corsi. His on ice sh% too was on the higher side. He also played against middling competition with superior team mates.
    So while his counting numbers are good, his underlying numbers arent.
    So by aquiring Johnson Colorado filled a hole and by drafting larsson they would make that position stronger in a couple of years

    ReplyDelete
  64. On the surface that whole trade looks slanted to the Blues side.

    Steward + Shattenkirk for Johnson + McClement + 11th overall

    Who knows, maybe EJ will turn into that thoroughbred Norris candidate level defenceman, and they hit a home run with the 11th. I wouldn't bet on it though.

    I'm inclined to agree with Statsny Sr., not as vehemently, but Col did seem to set themselves back quite a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  65. @ uni

    Colorado also have Mueller and Flieshman
    They set themselves back by acquiring Elliot and not that particular trade.
    MccLement is a very very good tough minute centerman and can be a mentor role for ORielly while letting Statsny and Duchene play sheltered minutes.
    I still think that Colorado won that trade. Shattenkirk played much more in the offensive zone, played much lower competition and had much higher on ice sh% which explains a superior season than Johnson.

    ReplyDelete
  66. I just assumed the Elliott/Anderson trade was for the purpose of acquiring a top3 draft selection. Mission accomplished.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Trying to gab the Isles #5 OV would be a very nice option. If my suspected top 2 has any merit that pick has an outside chance to be Larsson.

    RNH
    JH
    SC / GL / AL (coin toss)

    Florida looks to need F more than D with Kulikov performing and Gubrandson, Ellerby and Petrovic in the pipe. GL or SC?

    Does Lou go D or F ? Looking at NJ's depth chart I think their needs are more pressing at F. GL or SC?

    Larsson falls to #5? Stranger things have happened I guess but does the Fowler contribution have some GM's paying closer attention?

    To hell with it. I'm going to sign off on the order being RNH, JH, SC, GL, AL. Baste away.

    ReplyDelete
  68. SumOil:

    I made a whole post about underlying numbers on these guys, and Stewart played top lines with the top line, his underlying numbers were very good for a 22 years old.

    Mcclement isn't worth shit. You can pick up a truckload of Mcclements every summer.

    Shattenkirk's underlying numbers pretty much made him equal with EJ, exept he's one year younger.

    COL got screwed.

    ReplyDelete
  69. To celebrate the draft weekend I bought a rookie game worn Washington Capitals jersey of Blade goaltending great Braden Holtby.

    I expect you all to be envious and jealous of my low cost purchase of a player many of you may have never heard of.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Congrats Smarmy on your new purchase.

    That comment lead me to post something I've been thinking about for a while. Would WAS be willing to move one of their 3 young goalies in return for some young depth at forward? Varlamov, Neuvirth, and Holtby all appear reasonably legit, and I wonder if they would move one of them for a kid like Cogliano or Brule.

    There are no waiver issues with Holtby at this point, so maybe if there isn't a decent offer they just send him back to Hershey, but I bet they'd be willing to listen.

    ReplyDelete
  71. cabbiesmacker:

    Good logical thinking regarding how the draft will progress, but one thing about Lou and NJD is they have a history of drafting BPA - not need.

    Hence Parise.

    If Larsson slides to #5, it would be foolish not to see what it would take to get that pick from the NYI - because they are willing to move it.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Speaking of the Caps:

    "They have a great young team" Alex Ovechkin re the Edmonton Oilers

    ReplyDelete
  73. If Larsson does slide to 5 though, you'd have to think the Islanders would think long and hard about snagging him, and it'd cost quite a bit more to pry the pick away at that point.

    The mental image of a Hunter being rushed to the emergency room after consuming 90 odd beers on the first night off the draft is surprisingly amusing.

    ReplyDelete
  74. If larssson does fall to 5, nyi are going to take him, not trade him. Its their greatest need position.

    You'll have to give up a ton to take that pick away if he's available when they select.

    If he does fall its likely hmilton slides to 8th. Ottawa is replete w d prospects and the peg has tons tied up in the back end.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Uni If Larsson does slide to 5 though, you'd have to think the Islanders would think long and hard about snagging him, and it'd cost quite a bit more to pry the pick away at that point

    I agree. The pick would have to be inhand prior. Worst comes to worst you get one of GL, SC, or AL. Oilers have enough holes I do believe that any of them would be a nice asset.

    ReplyDelete
  76. I doubt Larsson -- the one pick outside of RNH that might go #1 -- slides to 5. Too much quality there. If he makes it to #4 the Devils will take him.

    I think YKOil has the top 4 pegged over at Copper and Blue by the way. Great draft post.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Smarmy: I expect you all to be envious and jealous of my low cost purchase of a player many of you may have never heard of

    I'm going to assume that with your knowledge of former Blades that you are a Saskatoon resident. You'll get no congratulations, envy, or jealousy from me my friend. Only disdain.

    Any "real" resident of Sask knows a Rider jersey is the only one worn to events like these. Also weddings, funerals, church, hockey games and sexual encounters. Or any other damn occasion you care to mention.

    Shame on you.

    ReplyDelete
  78. The mental image of a Hunter being rushed to the emergency room after consuming 90 odd beers on the first night off the draft is surprisingly amusing.

    I was trying to figure out how he was going to drink his 90 beers while reading about the draft at the library

    - they generally frown on that kind of thing -

    drinking not reading.

    Whoa, look at my confirmation code:

    Lableepl (EPL being EDM Public Library)

    ReplyDelete
  79. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  80. I am from Saskatoon and while I love the Riders just fine. I figured a hockey sweater would be the better fit for draft weekend.

    I do have an George Reed autograph though if that counts for anything?

    I collect Blades alumni stuff and I thought about a Smac jersey (I actually forgot he was a former blade who played with Hordichuk) but at the same price the Holtby swayed me.

    Then I remembered that Meigray has a training camp Oiler sweater of Milan Kytnar but maybe next time.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Oh and I wore a rider t-shirt to a wedding once. That's got to get me some Sask cred?

    ReplyDelete
  82. That Barnes pic killed me as well.

    He's still better than the rest but I have found he's slipped a bit.

    As for the rest, yeah, there doesn't seem to be much speculation about who the Oilers will take. 89 isn't what the Oilers hoped for so they'll hope RNH is the #1 centre of the future.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Lee said...
    Taking defensemen in the top 5 is "monumentally stupid" unless they are generational talents.

    Is there any proof to support this statement? Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty aren't Bobby Orr, but they were damn good value as #2 picks.

    Doughty yes...Hedman, very questionable.

    The best defensemen in the league (open to to discussion) are Lidstrom, Weber, Pronger, Chara, Keith, Seabrook.

    Where were they drafted?

    ReplyDelete
  84. hunter1909 said...
    Speaking of the Caps:

    "They have a young team" Alex Ovechkin re the Edmonton Oilers"

    Fixed that for you. :)

    ReplyDelete