Among the obvious ones, the Oilers are no longer plucking Taylor Chorney types and appear to be far less impressed with America than the previous regime.
There are others, the important one being that the Oilers no longer use their high selections for reach picks like Jesse Niinimaki. The club is also spending more time in Scandanavia and Finns roam the prospect list (a welcome sight, believe me) again.
Here's what Stu has wrought upon us:
- WHL: 7
- Sweden: 3
- QMJHL: 3
- OHL: 2
- Finland: 2
- BCJHL: 2
- USHS: 1
- NCAA: 1
- Slovakia: 1
- Belarus: 1
This could change, although based on the names we are hearing I expect the WHL number to grow next weekend.
MBS also plucked a European in the NHL's top 10 picks two years ago; when they called Magnum PS's name in 2009, that became the highest number for an Oiler European draft in franchise history. For all the blood, sweat and tears delivered from Finland's fjord to Rexall that is an incredible statistic.
The other draft trend is how many kids the Oilers grabbed from last year's combine list. 7 of 11--64%--of the Oilers draft list attended the NHL combine. It's something to look for at this year's draft.
Is it the 24th yet?!? Should be an exciting draft, lots of question marks with players and teams, could this draft turn out to be 6 hours long?
ReplyDeleteWhat really are the odds of Howson keeping his job in COlumbus beyond this year?
ReplyDeleteHe needs to pull a Kevin McHale and make a sweetheart deal with his old team on his way out.
Gilbert for Commodore and the 8th pick.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/rangers/oh_no_drury_duty_SvEySe827jXnaAe8XRQAnK
ReplyDeleteRanger's can't buy out Drury.
Wonder what they'd give up to save some money and some cap?
Souray for Drury +... what? I think that absolutely gets you a second, does it get you a first in 2012?
PDO, the Rangers aren't going to take salary back and give up a 2nd round pick methinks to get rid of Drury.
ReplyDeleteThat said, if I read the article you linked to correctly the Rangers have no need to do anything.
If Drury is as badly off as they think he is, he'll go on the LTIR. While his salary is still on the cap, the Rangers will be able to exceed the cap by the amount of his salary, so they'll have that extra 7 million to play with. Additionally he's only owed 5 million in real dollars, of which 4 million will be payed by insurance.
The net effect is the Rangers only pay him 1 million in actual dollars, and while his full salary counts against their cap, they can also exceed the cap by that same amount.
That's not a desperate situation for them if I understand it correctly; am I missing something?
I was just goint to post the same thing PDO.If Katz is serious about a rebuild now would be the time to spend some Katz cash and buy some draft picks. I think it absolutely gets you a 2nd this year.
ReplyDeleteI think the problem uni is that Sather needs the money July 1,and LTIR relief only comes after Drury reports to training camp and then gets assinged to LTIR.
ReplyDeletePDO:
ReplyDeleteCan we please say no to signing more smurfs?
I think Drury's playing career is over-this situation is just about what roster he sits on in order to collect the last year of his contract(whether it's insurance paying him or not)
ReplyDeleteCatchin' Rioters... Link
ReplyDeleteI'd like the Oilers to go the Bluejays route and give up on free agency and leverage their bucks at the draft.
ReplyDeleteI'm all for trying to the "Buy your bad contracts for draft picks"
We invest in these kids today they're going to pay the team back tenfold in a few years.
The other draft trend is how many kids the Oilers grabbed from last year's combine list. 7 of 11--64%--of the Oilers draft list attended the NHL combine.
ReplyDeleteI have no context for this... Is it unusually high, low, out of the range, similar to other teams? A function of N. American picks?
What really are the odds of Howson keeping his job in COlumbus beyond this year?
ReplyDeleteHe needs to pull a Kevin McHale and make a sweetheart deal with his old team on his way out.
Gilbert for Commodore and the 8th pick.
I don't see how giving up our 2nd best defenseman (and one of only two legit top-four guys on the roster), plus taking two years of a bad contract for an aging third-pairing d-man for the 8th overall pick qualifies as a "sweetheart deal". I'd actually argue Columbus gets the far better end of such a trade.
2011:
ReplyDelete102 players at combine 211 picks
48%
Better question is how combine attendees are draftedd outside the top 120 picks.
Hbomb: What? C'mon. Gilbert's not worth a 8th pick.
ReplyDeleteYou just get it because you bury some useless guy with money they won't use anyway.
The Ottawa Sun (Bruce Garriock) says OTT wants to trade up, and,
ReplyDeleteLeague sources say if Ottawa GM Bryan Murray wants to chose earlier than the No. 6 spot in next Friday’s draft in Minnesota, he should call the Devils, who have the fourth overall pick.
Sources say the Devils are so concerned about the lack of prospects in their organization, they’d be willing to drop back from their No. 4 spot for two first-rounders or a first-rounder and a high second-round pick.
With the sixth and 21st picks in the first round and three picks in the second, the Senators should be able to make Devils GM Lou Lamoriello a solid offer.
Hard to top the Ottawa best offer without throwing in a player.
ReplyDeleteHBomb: Fine, make it Nash instead of Commodore.
//Better question is how MANY combine attendees are drafted outside the top 120 picks.//
ReplyDeleteLook, I get that Gilbert is the new whipping boy on defense but seriously, this has to stop people.
ReplyDeleteTwo years ago, coming of a 45pt +6 season in 2008-09, we were seriously looking at him making Team USA's 2010 Olympic squad. He's only 28 and has missed, what, 3 games in the last four years while logging 22-24 minutes a game.
He was -10 and -14 the last two seasons on the worst team in the league but last season we gave up 76 more goals than we scored. Given his ice time, I'm amazed his +/- isn't worse.
Let's remain focused on the goal here, get NHL players. Gilbert is not going to win the Norris - few 4th rounders do - but he is a solid NHL defenseman.
If that's the case in NJ trade the 19th and 31st for the 4th. Then take it or make another deal up the order.
ReplyDeleteHBomb: Fine, make it Nash instead of Commodore.
ReplyDeleteYeah, because that's going to happen.
fpv: I'll take an established NHL player over another scratch 'n win ticket, thank you very much.
Given the lack of quality experienced players on the Oiler roster, dealing one of the four we have for a 2nd tier pick that may or may-not turn out doesn't strike me as wise, unless this team's management has no interest in making the playoffs anytime before spring 2015 (which is actually my deep-down fear, but that's another debate altogether).
I'm all for moving up - but I'd want to see it happen by packaging multiple draft picks or pieces that may be useful-but-redundant on the current roster (i.e. Omark). Dealing Actual NHL Players (Hemsky, Gilbert, Horcoff, Gilbert) or players on the way to being such (Hall, Gagner, Eberle, MPS, Petry, Dubnyk) just makes the rebuild an even longer-term process than it realistically has to be.
But I'm not interesting in swapping Gilbert or Hemsky for anything short of the ability to bag both RNH and Larsson - so if for some reason the latter falls to #5 and the Islanders are willing to talk, that I could get on-side with.
Hbomb: Funny. You refuse to take lotto tickets, but then you bet on the two guys who statistically are the most unsure.
ReplyDeleteYou can pick up assets like Gilbert at the UFA market for 3-4 M$. Or at March of every season for a 2nd-3rd round pick.
You trade for what you can't get otherwise. That is 2 top 10 picks. Tom Gilberts you can find many more.
Interesting feature on the TPS blog. Head 2 Head evaluations of the top-8 from 10 scouts.
ReplyDelete10/10 picked RNH over Strome.
9/10 picked Huberdeau over Couturier. A couple questioned Couturier's work ethic, which is a death knell for him.
fpv: History shows there's a higher degree of certainty in the top few picks panning out than there is even just a few picks later. The odds are WAY better if we could get the two guys who are, or so it appears, the consensus best forward and defenseman in the draft.
ReplyDeleteAnd your idea about replacing Gilbert with a UFA is all well and good, but has two minor flaws:
- When have the Oilers shown any interest in actually making themselves better through smart second-tier signings of free agents?
- Will those type of players want to come to a rebuilding team?
I've had enough of watching this organization show no interest in being competitive the last two seasons, and my expectation (and what the expectation should be from within) is to actually get better this next season. Which means keeping our good players, AND getting more good players. Not trading for picks that MIGHT turn out to be good players 4-5 years down the road and giving up guys that are good players right now in return.
fpb: Since you must whine on about Couturier, what about his rotten work ethic, and the inability to take on the press after games?
ReplyDeleteFrom where I sit, he looks like a future bust. I pity the team that wastes their 1st pick on him.
Hbomb: Yes I know. Just sad that an Org like this can't do simple things like this.
ReplyDeleteIf it's true we've got the occasion to turn a 2nd pair d-man into a top 10 pick. Selling high. And then normally you'd cover it up by swapping for another one with lower assets later on. (Say at training camp).
I mean. What's Grebeshkov?
As for the draft, being a high draft pick doesn't constitute in itself a factor. It doesn't affect players. That's why I don't consider it as a factor because anyone can become a top pick for various reasons.
Clean standards.
Hunter: 90% of CHL forwards with 6''3+ and 90+ points figured a way to score 70 points at least one time in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteAs for the work ethic: Well it's fucking normal when you have mononucelosis to maybe not push at your best.
Even then, if he's not ''pushing it'' I'd be curious to where his numbers would have jumped then. +100 maybe? Dustin Penner syndrome.
FPB - is it fair to say that a 45-point season in a defenceman is as good as a 70-point season in a forward?
ReplyDeleteSo you are faced with:
Keeping a defenceman who has a 45-point season in his career (100% chance you get this quality of player).
Drafting a forward with a chance of a 70-point season in his career (90%ish chance you get this quality of player).
Isn't keeping the defenceman the sound decision?
Hunter: 90% of CHL forwards with 6''3+ and 90+ points figured a way to score 70 points at least one time in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteAnd how many of those had concerns voiced about their work ethic?
There's a serious Jason Bonsignore vibe from the things that are being said.
fpv: I don't particularly enjoy players who you have to hope do well. I prefer players who deliver.
ReplyDeleteCouturier appears more and more like a headcase - a guy unable to cope with the pressures of being a QMJHL star - so what happens to him when he faces the vitriol of the Edmonton Journal?
I can't wait for the draft to be over so the arguments over who's crystal ball is better will be over.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing I will say about the draft is that its all about future value.
The most expensive and rare commodity in the NHL is 1st line scoring forwards.
Every year at the draft you get to pick assets for free, so you should maximize in terms of future value.
If in the future you have too many scoring forwards (the horror!), you can turn the excess into players to fill your holes, including 1/2 Dmen.
Flames have hired Chris Snow as Director of Video and Statistical Analysis.
ReplyDeleteA lot of trade talk heating up around the draft. I'm now both excited about the draft and worried that they're going to trade Hemsky. C'mon draft!
Couturier's mono would no doubt have contributed to his looking tired, but it's also true big men are often tagged with the "lack of effort" albatross.
ReplyDeleteFrank Mahovlich was constantly ripped for it, and he's in the HHOF. Just saying.
Smaller skaters often look like they're grinding down their left nut while skating, but bigger men look like the wind blew them into position.
History tells us neither is true.
TG: When was the last time Gilbert was that?
ReplyDeleteAnyway. It's not a question of value, but availability.
It's harder to get a player of Couturier's size and skill, than get a guy like Gilbert, AKA it'l cost more. So it's really a question of market value.
Hunter: Well if he's not delivering, then RNH doesn't do shit. He's been superior to him in every aspect possible this season, PPG, +-, SH, ES production etc.
Schitzo: Lecavalier? Thornton?
A couple questioned Couturier's work ethic, which is a death knell for him.
ReplyDeleteI just heard an ISS guy talking to Stauffer on Oiler's Infomercial, they have Couterieer at 4th and this guy thinks Couterier is the most underrated player in the draft.
aboot - look up Canadian in the dictionary
Uni said
ReplyDeleteam I missing something
From my understanding of the CBA s50.5, while there is no LTIR allowance between July 1 and the last day of training camp, a team can exceed the salary cap by 10% in that period. However, any any player on a one-way SPC counts against the cap for that same period. Therefore, at a $63M cap, Redden's $6.5M chews up more than the $6.3M (10%) overage for the offseason. That doesn't leave Slats with much wiggle room to sign several prominent RFA's (Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Boyle, Gilroy) plus replace Prospal, Fedotenko, McCabe, and Sauer. Erixon slots in at $1.75M.
I think there may be some urgency on Slat's part to move either Redden or Drury before July 1, particularly if there is interest in Richards.
Keep in mind, I think they traded their 2nd rounder this year to CGY for the rights to Erixon. They also lost their 3rd rounder in the deal for Mccabe.
Would something around MDZ and Drury for Calgary's 3rd rounder work for both sides?
FPB - I understand what you're saying, I'm mostly just teasing about that 90% chance of 70 point thing. For the record, I don't suspect Couturier will still be there at 8th overall because you're right that his junior performance and size will be too good to pass up.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be that the biggest concern about him is not so much his drive but his seeming reluctance to be in the spotlight. Is it unreasonable for Edmonton to take that into consideration? Would he be more successful in Florida than he would be in Edmonton?
Hey Slats, I'll trade you Souray for Redden, Drury, and your next four first round picks. Win Now!
ReplyDeleteTG: Andrei Kostitsyn hasn't talked more than once a season to the media in his whole tenure in the MTL hot stove.
ReplyDeleteIf he performs he won't be bothered.
What do you guys know about Oleksiak??? Any chance he's still around at our LAK 1st pick?
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, I'm baffled how Chara can be 6'9" 260 lbs and play 30 minutes a game...
Jay: Rankings says maybe But I say not.
ReplyDeleteGuys like this have been picked earlier. And this time around, Oleksiak actually has scoring.
As an aside, I'm baffled how Chara can be 6'9" 260 lbs and play 30 minutes a game...
ReplyDeleteare you kidding? its 'cause he's lazy. He only takes two strides and he can reach anywhere on the ice. ;-)
Boston shouldn't be allowed to draft Oleksiak. A Chara/Oleksiak pairing would be too ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteChara runs. A bunch.
ReplyDeleteCould go to Buffalo to play with Myers as well.
ReplyDeleteFPB - I'm not worried about how he'll respond if he's performing well, I'm worried about the inevitably times that he won't. If the Oilers take him first overall, how does the media respond if he take season or two to adjust to the speed of the NHL game?
ReplyDeleteOn a somewhat related question, are there specific reasons that MBS seems to have a preference for the WHL or an aversion to US hockey? Is it just an exposure thing or related to attitude/pressure/specific skills?
TG: I Think American teams tend to rate US players higher than they should so they can make PR moves / cheaper scouting.
ReplyDeleteI don't think American players are bad, but usually they're way too high for what they are. They also play very few. (US NTL plays something like 20 games...)
As for the pressure, well take him with your 2nd pick. Pick Larsson/Hamilton 1st (Or drop 2nd/3rd) and snap him with 4/5/8. (Whichever one it takes)
"Ribs said...
ReplyDeleteCatchin' Rioters... Link"
Ribs that so made my day!!!! Thanks!
I wonder if NJ would consider Oilers' #1 next year plus #19 for the #4.
ReplyDeleteWhy in Gord's name would we do that?
ReplyDeleteOn a somewhat related question, are there specific reasons that MBS seems to have a preference for the WHL or an aversion to US hockey? Is it just an exposure thing or related to attitude/pressure/specific skills?
ReplyDeleteWHL guys offer some advantages:
1)They are used to western Canada, the cold, the "culture",
2)Are used to the grind of playing 60 - 70 games a year and brutal travel
3)are perhaps more likely to be excited about the chance to play and stay in EDM
4)are used to physical hockey and fights
5)you can control their development (see Riley Nash) as they will typically only play and extra year in junior before they turn pro
6)they might get more years out of a guy before they turn UFA (not sure on this - there is an age cap right?)
Lots of generalizations for sure but on average a WHL guy may be a better fit in EDM.
insult- blogger must have run out of made up words, or else it doesn't like me.
I wonder if NJ would consider Oilers' #1 next year plus #19 for the #4.
ReplyDeleteThe geniuses at ON were talking about this as a good thing. I think it would be insane.
Its pretty tough to not regret that when the #1 and #4 won't make much, if any, impact this season in getting the Oilers out of the cellar.
It depends on how far the Oilers climb up.
ReplyDeleteIf they end up 20th. 10+19 for 4 seems pretty standard.
At the end of the day, why should it matter where the Oilers end up if they traded away their 1st pick for 2012?
ReplyDeleteFPB, I do like your posts, but I'm curious about one thing. How did you become an Oilers fan?
ReplyDeleteDucey said:
ReplyDelete"The geniuses at ON were talking about this as a good thing. I think it would be insane.
Its pretty tough to not regret that when the #1 and #4 won't make much, if any, impact this season in getting the Oilers out of the cellar."
I guess next year's draft depth sounds pretty good--though I haven't followed it closely.
One could argue that trading the 19 + 1st 2011 could speed up the rebuild--if MBS like a player he can get at #4 in so far as a 2011 pick should have an impact on a team sooner than a 2012 pick (depending on the 2012 pick rank, player position, etc).
Sorry, I meant 1st 2012 clearly. No edit feature :p
ReplyDeleteSpoiler/Ducey: Matheson was musing about the idea of trading next year's 1st in one of his latest pieces. Didn't seem like he knew anything, but it's interesting speculation. If the Oilers did move the pick, the one thing we would know for certain is that they'd have to avoid tanking by any means necessary. I guess for those wanting to see the Oilers shop for good FAs and become competitive fast, seeing the 2012 1st move is a good sign.
ReplyDeleteI'm not oppposed to trading our 2012 first rounder, but it's a definite risk. Last year I was all about offering our 2011 first rounder and Penner to Boston for the TO pick and Ryder.
ReplyDeleteSo essentially that's Seguin and Ryder for RNH, the 19th overall this year and Teubert.
I'd have been fine with that personally, but I'm sure others would disagree.
If the Oilers take him first overall, how does the media respond if he take season or two to adjust to the speed of the NHL game?
ReplyDeleteSome one in MSM will write look at how bad RNH is we could have taken him. Problem solved.
It depends on how far the Oilers climb up.
ReplyDeleteIf they end up 20th. 10+19 for 4 seems pretty standard.
Penner is gone.
That leaves 10,83,77,6 as players who are Actual NHL players. (4,14 are close, 91 might not be too far behind)
If 83 gets traded, that leaves 3 Actual NHL players.
If the Oilers don't upgrade the D and give DD 55+ starts, they are bottom 3 in league.
Meant "if they DON'T giver DD 55+ starts.
ReplyDeleteFFS L.T, get this fine blog off blogger and to a site where you can sell advertising and can install an edit button.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteIt seems that prospects are always overhyped at the draft, especially on the eve of it.
If you could get Larssen at #4 and get NJ's 1st next year, I might think about giving them 19 and our #1 next year.
But to trade Landeskog for a shot at Shakirov (whatever his name is - the dude that got 106 pts in the OHL this yr) plus say Seimens seems like a poor bet.
If the Oilers don't upgrade the D and don't give DD 55+ starts, they are bottom 3 in league.
ReplyDeleteExactly
Ducey: Yakupov lol. There's also Golchenyuk his teammates at 83.
ReplyDeleteBack to back N1 and N2 picks.
Jay: I liked the colors and horn when I was younger. I had an interest spurt because of Nilsson. Then I discovered the site, and now I watch the games. (It's fine because I can watch MTL and EDM back 2 back since it's different time zones)
Well the Devils' D is pathetic and they still got away with it for 2-3 years.
ReplyDelete19th and 2012 1st for NJD 4th...
ReplyDeleteHow high would the Oil have to finish in 2012 for this to be a tie or a good deal for the Oilers? What's the cut off? What are the odds of clearing that bar?
Would Brian Burke immediately make a trade to NJ for the Oil 2012 1st?
"I'm now both excited about the draft and worried that they're going to trade Hemsky."
ReplyDeleteI see them trading their scratched up quarter for a shinny nickel too.
vagic - I'm not even going to go there (though it sounds like a glorious place *rimshot*)
Call to AsiaOil:
ReplyDeleteCan you link me to the guy with the formula for NFL QB's?
Thank you very much in advance.
FPV: Funny. You refuse to take lotto tickets, but then you bet on the two guys who statistically are the most unsure.
ReplyDeleteNeither Larsson nor RNH have close to as many questions surrounding them as Couterier does? If they did it would be reflected in the rankings.
I make Huberdeau and Landeskog to be safer options so Couterier at #5. At best.
Cabbie: Statistically. Historically.
ReplyDeleteSize and skill is rarely a miss. Hence, Couturier is the safest pick in the bunch. I'd also argue Hamilton because of his size and scoring, and Huberdeau because of incredible ES production, altough this avenue hasn't been explored all that much. I'd have to search if the size+skill combo still does it for D-men.
Defensemen overall have lower success rates, hence Larsson. There's less track records of players with ES/PP and G/PTS being successful than others, hence RNH.
I think we do the trade with Columbus. Hemsky, Stortini and 31st pick for number 8 and Ryan Johansen. Possibly turn around and move the #8 and #19 for NJ's #4 pick. Landing Landeskog, Huberdeau or Couturier. Would be nice, may not happen exactly as listed but players like Omark ect. Could be added or substituted in. Am I crazy?
ReplyDeleteFPB
ReplyDelete8 of 10 scouts rate RNH ahead of the pack, with a clearly definable gap. Unless you can say that your stats have it over the scouts then I'd suggest it's RNH going #1 to a majority of teams and for good reason.
Throw Larsson out of the equation due to position and SC is still most teams #3 or #4 forward pick. He may move up simply tks to team needs ie D/W/C.
Size be damned. Kid just seems to have a few too many warts for most to take him higher.
Everyone says RNH thinks the game well.
ReplyDeleteThought #1: Goals win games.
Thought #2: If I score more goals we win games.
And waiting! Waiting! Waiting!
Not so great a thinker!
Heard RNH on the radio everyone says he can improve goal production. the kid says he plays video games and is bad at Golf.
He is bad at swinging a shafted sports device with any strength or Accuracy. Sounds like a 50 goal scorer to me.