If I had a vote for the number one overall pick, it would go to Sean Couturier. Why? There's too just too much. I know he has some footspeed issues and I also know that mono took some of his strength in his draft year. It's true he wasn't the star of the WJC team and that both RNH and Huberdeau outshone him at the prospects game.
There's just too much. He's extremely talented, he is used in all situations and he's established a level of ability at the junior level that is just below the elite level kids produced from the CHL in the last 4 seasons. Comparing NHLE's over several seasons, we get this:
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46 2010
- John Tavares 25-21-46 2009
- Steven Stamkos 23-19-42 2008
- Tyler Seguin 19-22-41 2010
- Ryan Strome 12-28-40 2011
- Evaner Kane 19-20-39 2009
- Sean Couturier 14-24-38 2011
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38 2011
- Jonathan Huberdeau 15-21-36 2011
- Jeff Skinner 19-16-35 2010
The rest of SC's skill set is a nice match for the Oilers. Big, 2-way C with tremendous skill, he's not similar in style to Sam Gagner and so when he arrives in the NHL a person could reasonably slot him into the lineup between two quality wingers (say, Hall and Eberle).
I spoke to his coach (Mario Duhamel) a couple of weeks ago about Couturier and he had some interesting things to say:
- On SC's challenges this year: "At the beginning of the year, the mono had an impact, it hurt hm all year. He never really recovered. I think that also he put a lot of pressure on himself, he's a guy who really cares about the team. He's an efficient player on the ice and a quiet leader off the ice. He never really had much time to recover with all of the things he was asked to do. Sean has a lot of hockey behind him for the last three seasons, he went to the Memorial Cup, he played for the U17, U18 Team Canada's. He was tired this season, we could see that he was tired."
- SC's plus arrows: "He's very efficient offensively and defensively. Sean is the kind of a guy you want on the ice at the end of the game, or if you need a goal or to deny a goal. He's good on faceoffs and will block shots, he can do it all."
- Work to do: "For me, he has to focus on his physical strength. He's a guy who is strong for his age, but for the next level he'll need to keep improving. He needs to get stronger in his legs."
- Skating: "When he's in movement he's very good, but for his first three steps he needs to improve."
The information highway is sophisticated enough for us to know with some certainty that Sean Couturier will not be the first overall pick at the 2011 entry draft. I'd still pick him #1 overall. There's just too much.
I Like Couturier's size and defensive play. Is he better than RNH? Can't say. But intriguing nonetheless. My bet is he goes fourth.
ReplyDeleteThat's my pick too. But I'll just keep dreaming...
ReplyDeleteWhy is he dropping out of the top 2 or 3?
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be consensus he is not #1. Skating? Effort? Weird personality (not giving interviews)?
I am torn. I think our most immediate need to blow up the abomination that is our D. Vanncouver keeping pulling guys out of the press box that would be our #4 D man so Larssen fits an immediate need.
ReplyDeleteButton says 1st ine centres are never available anywhere but in draft (ok with exception of Brad Richards). Guys at the top of this draft board all have flaws. RNH--size, strength and ES scoring. Huberdeau did it once (albeit draft year and Memorial Cup) and has same size issues as RNH.
Couturier has everything we need and has a 1st step that seems like Penner and Jumbo Joe. Big, nice frame, scores, defends, kills penalties and wins faceoffs.
Couturier is +141 in 3 years in the Q. Huberdeau is +87 in 2 years and RNH is +25 in 2 years
I would love in August for David Conte to tell us who his top 5 was from this draft. I think Couturier may be #1
I think he peaked too early in terms of scouting buzz. All the johnny-come-latelys steal the spotlight at the last minute.
ReplyDeleteIf here were a bit more careless defensively and just focused on points, he'd still be in #1 contention. But he puts up his points without giving up much the other way. For some reason that's not seen as a skill.
Isn't it possible with the way things are breaking that they get Hopkins AND Couturier?
ReplyDeleteThat'd be something.
Couturier is just the safest and most NHL ready pick.
ReplyDeleteTake the big men with domination.
Speaking of drafts Lowetide, I just saw Al "Scoop" Oliver sitting with the Pirates table at the MLB draft on Sportsnet. The memories.
ReplyDeleteAl Oliver. Man I was excited when he came over to the Expos. Remember that day like it was 1982. :-)
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1 said...
ReplyDeleteIsn't it possible with the way things are breaking that they get Hopkins AND Couturier?
That'd be something.
I have been secretly thinking this for a little while now. If the #19 + + would get us into striking distance of SC I would love for them to make that move.
It is very risky to gamble the future of the Oilers 1-2 centres on unproven draft picks, but if it works out like its projected to we could be set for a long time.
Rolling out RNH then SC would be quite something in a few years.
Last player who was ranked #1 coming into his draft year, suffered from mono right before that season, and tumbled down the draft rankings? Logan Couture.
ReplyDeleteObvious there is no predictive value in knowing that, but it's interesting to note.
-------
There is so much going for Couturier that it really is hard to pass on him. Then again, if we believe those "in the know", RNH's perceived "potential" is pretty tantalizing as well.
Before making such a decision, I think I would want to rely heavily on my Q scouts who have seen Couturier play a lot. Did he look tired this year? How much of his failure to progress could be attributable to his illness? How did he score most of his points? Were they scored in a way that we can expect to translate to the NHL?
But I think we may also have serious questions about our scouts for the Q. Who are our regional scouts covering the Q? Are they the same guys who may have seen Pouliot and JFJ good? What's their opinion on Couturier's down arrows?
So many questions, many of which we will never have answered.
It's an exciting draft this year to be sure. It's somewhat disappointing that there isn't high level talent like next year, but oh well. We may very well draft in the top 3 again, subject to the team's MVP.
+1 on the Oilers picking Couturier.
ReplyDeleteAs LT mentioned there's just too much positive to not pick the big guy from the Q. I too also wonder if SC's (and Adam Larsson's) popularity for scouts peaked too early and now its a matter of nit-picking them off.
GXL
Serious question: how many players coming into the year at #1 slid and, in retrospect, should have remained at #1?
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be a lot of talk about scouts overrating recent performance more than they should (all things being equal having a better second half or more recent season is to be preferred because we're projecting here). Just wondering if it jives with other potential #1s who fell before the draft.
Couturier is my pick as well for the Oil. Big 2-way center would be exactly the thing the Oilers need. He'd become the matchup breaker if this team ever could find its way into the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteBut how about looking at a different dynamic....and moving Paajarvi to C and drafting Landeskog?
Hall-Paajarvi-Eberle
Landeskog-Gagner-Hemsky
Its one of the few situations where Hemsky might be able to stay with the Oilers long term.(Actual instant retribution on his line). But the whole thing would be riding on whether or not MPS can actually play center. Better balance if he could.
Rome should be gone for the rest of the series. If he's not, the NHL is a complete joke.
ReplyDeleteIf it were up to me, SC would be the guy. Too much stuff that could make him a rock at centre. When it's this close a race, and there's a huge organizational need, it seems to me to be the right thing to do.
ReplyDeleteThis will be a very interesting class to reminisce about in 5-10 years.
After reviewing video replay, the NHL has determined there is no conclusive evidence Aaron Rome hit Nathan Horton.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteholy. RNH looks 14.
ReplyDeleteThe Rome hit on Horton was just late. He deserved the five and the game.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't think he should be suspended any further.
I kind of wonder about the impact mono had on him. If it had some, but not a huge effect, that's one thing, but if it had a significant effect, I think there's a chance that Couturier is the clear-cut #1 this year, and it's hidden by his illness. That's one of the reasons I'd be hesitant to pass on him, especially since I think one can make a case that he's the best prospect anyways.
ReplyDeletespeeds: In talking to the coach, it seemed like it was a major problem all year long. He got a late start, worked hard to catch up, went to the WJ's and then the prospects game, etc and then the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteNot to make excuses for him, but I agree it was a factor.
If I were Tambellini, I would do everything in my power to acquire a second pick in the top 5. Hemsky, Gagner,Cogliano, Gilbert, the 19th pick... I'd pretty much trade anything other than a young prospect. Because with RNH and Couturier, the team would be set at center for the next decade.
ReplyDeleteI'd be hesitant to pass on him, especially since I think one can make a case that he's the best prospect anyways.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great point.
Everyone I've ever known with mono simply isn't who they normally are.
I can't imagine the depth of effect on a high level athlete.
Also,
The Rome hit was to the head, and late.
More than that, he showed total disregard for Horton's life and career.
If I were Shanahan he'd be gone for the rest of the series and the first 20 games next year.
Just get that shit out of our beautiful, fast, tough game.
Lucic is like a dead horse on the power play. He turned the puck over 3 times in the first shift of that power play.
ReplyDeleteLucic has been an absolute NIGHTMARE. Two turnovers his last shift which were almost goals against, and now a slashing penalty to end it off.
ReplyDeleteCraig Simpson is complaining about this game turning on a couple of lucky breaks?
ReplyDeleteWTF were the last two games? For the love of Pete!
Rewatching tha replay, I wil admit it's not likely to be a suspendible offense. Looks like he hit his head on the ice.
ReplyDeleteLucid has been awful, but doesn't look like it's going to matter. Go bruins
Where is DSF?
ReplyDeletelol.
ReplyDeleteYeah I like this kid as well.
ReplyDeleteAnyone catch Hrudey and Stock talking about how its better to have an early pk than a pp? Did I understand that correctly or is the early onset Oldtimers kicking in?
These HNIC guys get dumber and dumber I swear.
Rewatching tha replay, I wil admit it's not likely to be a suspendible offense. Looks like he hit his head on the ice.
ReplyDeleteTwo thing make me think is a suspension.
1) The hit is almost a full second after the pass (28 frames as per TSN, 30 is a full second) .5 sec is suspension threshold for the league.
2) Rome's should pad hit Horton in the head (face really). Watched it over and over, really seems like shoulder to head.
A check in hockey is meant to separate a man from the puck, not a head from a body.
WG
ReplyDeleteIt was definitely late but he never leaves his feet and Horton was definitely admiring his pass. I don't think he hit his head clean, but it did slam on the ice.
It just seems the way the discplinarians are, they won't suspend him.
It could go either way. Anything that brings Ballard into the lineup is A O K with me.
Driving home tonite with the game feed being from Vancouver.After the Bruins go up 4-0 the announcer says in all seriuosness "looks like the sweep is starting to slip away"
ReplyDeleteAnd people still wonder why they haven't become Canada's team.
Lucic redeems himself by punching burrows in the head.
ReplyDeleteDo it again!
For the Bruins to have a chance in this series, they had to turn it into a gong show, good on them. I don't know how they put up with Vancouver's shit for this long. Fight dirt with dirt.
ReplyDeletehockeyguy: That's hilarious.
ReplyDeleteAt the Oilers season ticket holder event, Steve Tambellini mentioned 6-7 guys they were looking at number 1 overall.
ReplyDeleteCouturier wasn't even mentioned.
LT:
ReplyDeleteI was on my way home to Airdrie from playing golf in the Flames Alumni tourney.All old Flames players but they also include any ex-NHL ers living in Calgary.Our foursome had the pleasure of having ex-Flyer Lindsay Carson as our Alumni.Every foursome had 1 alum or ex-NHL player with it.
One of the guys in our group left Oiler golf tees on every hole!
I was watching last game with some friends who are Canuck fans (I'm in Victoria until September), and I'm talking legitimate fans, not the bandwagoners. As soon as the Bruins went up 2-1 in the second period they all started bitching and moaning about how Luongo's joking and they wanted to turn the game off, and I'm just sitting there thinking 'guys it's the second period of a 2-1 game, come on'. And then of course as soon as Van ties it up they're back to being the greatest team ever.
ReplyDeleteI can only imagine the pity party that's going on right now.
Hughson sounds crushed. Awwwww, Muuffin.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing bigger than the win there, is that Luongo looks rocky. He has a history of struggling mentally, so heres to hoping.
ReplyDeleteNow that was an effort.
ReplyDeleteGet in these morons faces. Make em angry. They get stupid. You score 8 goals. Love it.
On the draft front...though I like the ability to take a giant, skilled player, aren't the best players in hockey still about 6'1" and in the 190-210 range? That's right about where Hopkins appears to be headed. Not necessarily the top-top, but a nice amount of the best players in the game. It isn't like the NFL.
If all things were equal between Couturier and Nugent-Hopkins, I'd pick the Canadian kid every time.
ReplyDeleteEspecially a Western Canadian kid who has grown up playing hockey in Canada during Canadian winters.
Not the American kid whose hometown is Phoenix, and who is far less likely to re-sign in Canada once he enters free agency. It's a rare American who would rather play in a Canadian market, and who can blame them?
While there's been something nagging me about RNH in a bad way, I've never been able to shake the Couturier bandwagon as the best option for the Oil despite the supposed foot speed issues. Hearing he had mono and still did what he did could be huge news. Anyone who's had it can tell you the havoc it wrecks on your energy levels, even after you get over the supposed illness part. It takes ages to get your strength back. It's hard to gamble on such an unknown factor, but if he's still in the conversation as the top guy, without the mono debate, then he should be the man when you factor that in.
ReplyDelete@S-Squared
ReplyDeleteCouturier played on the Canadian WJC team, that RNH didn't make, lol.
I'm all for RNH at 1 but, seriously.
@ Vish
ReplyDeleteHaha... I'm suitably embarrassed; you would never know I had watched that tournament.
I somehow never reconciled his Phoenix birthplace with the fact that he played for Team Canada.
So maybe things are more equal than I'd believed.
100% agree with you LT.
ReplyDeleteHis pre/post WJC PPG is 1.625/1.692, and the 16 points he would've scored in the 10 games he missed due to the WJC would've moved him from 5th to 2nd place overall in Q scoring.
4-4-8 on the PK as well, which was tied for the most in the Q. I've said it before, but poor skaters don't score a whole lot on the PK.
The Rome hit was late, vicious and unexcusable.
ReplyDeleteHe should be suspended for the rest of the playoffs. No name on the cup.
It's still ironic for a guy who commited to oh so many boardings in the serie I saw him play to end up his hoofs up.
The Rome hit was late, but was not a head shot, was not blindside (if anything, Horton was caught admiring his pass while cutting thru the middle).
ReplyDeleteThe most unfortunate thing about it was that Horton hit his head on the ice when he fell. That brought the strectcher out and created the big scene.
In the SJS series, McGinn ran Rome from behind on a vicious charge. The impact was big enough to drive Rome's head into the boards and resulted in a concussion. McGinn got a 5-min major but no suspension.
The two plays, to me, are pretty much the same. And if it were up to me, they would be suspendable every time but the NHL has already set a precedence of no suspension so I don't see how they should differ this time.
I know the NHL doesn't call charging unless someone gets hurt, but that's a text book charge even without it being a full second late.
ReplyDeleteLucic punching Burrows in the head and then giving him fingers to chomp was epic.
Luongo gave up eight.
e-i-g-h-t.
When was the last time a team lost a SCF game this badly?
E-i-g-h-t.
lolungo.
interesting to watch the colorado avalanche have a pre draft special. In it they talk about all the top guys (pre memorial cup), when they talk they discuss how Couturier would fare and had a few intersting comments.
ReplyDelete1. They think his offense will translate well to the NHL (same the said about RNH)
2. Sean played "every second shift" and "30 minutes a night". I don't know what that does to how you rate him, but it does show that the TOI data is known at least to some degree by the scouting staff
3. I would be shocked if they took him as I think it was their assistant GM did not seem to keen
4. As of then, landeskog was their pick
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete30 minutes a night? Maybe we have our reason for his lower standing among those with 40~ish NHLE?
ReplyDelete30 minutes a night contrast highly with his +- and his mononucleosis.
ReplyDeleteIf he played 30 mins a night and somehow ended up with such low ES goals against. Then damn he might be the most dominant CHL player ever.
And I think the Q's reduction in NHLE is just plain wrong.
ReplyDeleteSomeone did an article on the % of top scorers coming from the Q vs the % of players they are.
12 % vs 8 %
The Q guys are a higher part of the top echelon than they should be.
I still like Larsson at #1, but I wouldn't be broken up about Couturier as a 'consolation' prize. Certainly like him over the other options.
ReplyDeleteLike LT wrote, there's simply too much there. Toss in what he did this year while recovering from mono and the man stands out from the other forward prospects. Anyone remember how mono de-railed MA Pouliot?
MA Pouliot is probably why I'm ignorantly happy to go along with 14 out of 15 scouts.
ReplyDeleteFirst you draft a player with "issues", telling yourself stuff like 'oh, but if only this guy didn't have mono or whatever, it would be such a better situation.'
Then that player gets hurt, and you're left saying stuff like 'oh, too bad - hope he gets well soon so he can dominate the A'...
Then they stop developing for some reason or other. Meanwhile the healthy player develops, and your team is stuck with yet another busted prospect.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Sean Couturier is a very talented player. The problem is......HE CAN'T SKATE! Case in point, Rob Schremp. Robbie has always been one of my favourite players due to his flashy style and incredible puck handling/shooting skill. His problem is that his poor skating ability is not up to (or ever will be) up to NHL standards. Let's put it this way. If Rob Schremp could skate like Taylor Hall, THEN you have an incredible player on your hands! It just goes to show how important that skill is.
ReplyDeleteBased on our most pressing need, I would take Hopkins (as I have stated for the longest time). Hall and Eberle NEED and MUST have a Center that they can play with who not only matches their skill level and creativity, but ALSO matches them (especially Hall) in the SKATING department. If they played with Couturier, they would have to constantly wait for Sean to HURRY UP and CATCH up to them thus, hurting the team.
If we already had a great #1 Center, then I would take Larsson without hesitation. However, as a General Manager I would have to go with what the team needs "The Most" right now. We can always draft + trade for that elite level defenceman.
You can quote me again when I say "If you can't skate, I don't want you on my team."
Someone did an article on the % of top scorers coming from the Q vs the % of players they are.
ReplyDelete12 % vs 8 %
I've seen those numbers used to suggest that NHL teams/coaches may be biased against Quebecois players. The premise was that there are a disproportionate number of Quebecois and European players as top six forwards - all things being equal, if I told you there were 40 Swedish forwards in the NHL you'd expect to find 10 first liners, ten second liners, ten third liners, and ten fourth liners. But this doesn't end up true in reality.
Anyways, the author's conclusion was that at the bottom of the roster, most coaches would rather have a good old western canadian farm boy than a Euro or Quebecois player. Not sure if that's true, but it would explain why "top scorers" are disproportionately from the Q - the "less than top" scorers end up without a job.
My top 3 would be Couturier, Larsson and Nugent-Hopkins... in that order. But I think there is a good chance that RNH makes some of us that would take a pass on him at #1 look silly.
ReplyDeleteThe draft is tough.
One thing for me that makes me lean more to Couturier than RNH is that he's put up solid numbers for two years. This is the Taylor vs. Tyler argument. Then add in the "powerplay" thing, the size differences, and other things, and you have me thinking that your passing up on too good a player.
I think RNH is going to be a phenomenal player and put up really impressive numbers on the right team... I just question whether we're the right team, and whether RNH is the right player for our group.
Count me on the Couturier bandwagon (and Larsson bandwagon).
rob.van.dam
ReplyDeleteExaggerate much? CAN'T SKATE in all caps. LOL
He needs to work on his first few steps. You make it sound like he's plodding around in rubber boots.
It seems to me that the RNH bandwagon has to invent this supposed skill gap to justify his #1 status.
Its closer than you want to think. RNH is a great skater but needs to work on his top gear. SC has a great top gear but needs to work on his acceleration. Both of these guys I'm sure are going to work on that all summer.
RNH is a slightly better playmaker. SC seems to be given no credit for this. Even though he can generate offense at ES, PP and even on the PK. 60 apples in 58 games is not too shabby.
SC is a better goal scorer and scores the type of goals that translate in the NHL. RNH has a great release that he doesn't use enough. If he goes back to the Dub next year and doesn't score over 40, I'll be concerned.
As far as playing style. I think one could argue how either one could work. Personally, I want Hall and Eberle skating with the puck. There is already a lot of flash and dash on that line. I think SC could easily keep up with them creatively, but he brings more to the table. He's going to win more faceoffs and generate more defensive turnovers. That equals more scoring chances.
The strength of this community has always been its commitment to using comprehensive statistics and analysis to try to find the hidden insights in our favourite game. I am always thrilled by the level of intelligence exhibited on LT's blog and the engaging debates.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I believe the empirical spirit that is normally so effective is something of an Achilles' heel when discussing the draft. We're constantly in search of the numbers that will lead us to the best pick. However, because we lack TOI and other advanced measurements, we seize on things that we would normally ridicule when discussing the NHL. All of a sudden plus/minus and even weight take on definitive meaning.
That's the sense I'm getting from some of the favour for Courturier. I am personally undecided on who we should take at #1, but I keep coming back to the emerging consensus around RNH, or failing that Larsson, Landeskog or even Huberdeau. If all of the scouts are shying away from Courturier, I think it's simplistic to claim it's simply a case of familiarity breeding contempt. That could be the case for a bad scout or two, but all of them?
Thank heavens we have Stu. I trust him to make the right call.
wow...i love when people talk in hyperbole about the rome hit. the ice did more damage to horton than anything else.
ReplyDeleteif you're going to complain about the rome hit, complain about the crosschecking in front of the crease, complain about the diving, complain about the slashing.
sometimes i think there's some posters here who have their kids on a leash and forgot that life happens as full speed (not frames per second)...a car travelling at 30km/hr takes 15m to stop...how was rome supposed to stop?
if rome lets up on that hit, he's called a pussy, he follows through and all the fans are up in arms...
it's the fuckin' playoffs, stop the pansification of hockey, already!!!
stop the pansification of hockey, already!!!
ReplyDeleteHow did Mike Milbury get through the filters here?
Good comment Cactus. The debate (as we have been reminding ourselves for a week now) is lacking complete numbers and as such, the scouts' eyes are something we should have more faith in (since we don't have anything else).
likip - if Kip was in this draft, this would be my motto
All of these top picks show so much promise. It would be interesting to go back and read the scout reports on some of the top 5 picks over the years that have turned out to be busts. Were there concerns that were raised right in the scouting reports (e.g. foot speed, size, etc.) or did the problems arise well after draft? Do all the busts have a feature in common? Is there one red flag among top 5 prospects that's more dangerous than others?
ReplyDeleteThings to research if only I had the time!
If he played 30 mins a night and somehow ended up with such low ES goals against. Then damn he might be the most dominant CHL player ever.
ReplyDeleteFpb, are you Couturier's dad? You're completely irrational on the Couturier v RNH discussion.
I couldn't care who we take, but if Couturier did play every second shift that is a major warning flag. He is being drafted for his offense, which will have to be discounted for such a large TOI. (see Schremp, Gagner)
He is not going to go #1 overall because he plays good defense.
sometimes i think there's some posters here who have their kids on a leash and forgot that life happens as full speed (not frames per second)...a car travelling at 30km/hr takes 15m to stop...how was rome supposed to stop?
ReplyDeleteYou do realize that the second that Horton had gotten rid of the puck Rome was skating backwards, correct?
Then he pivoted, got low and exploded into Horton... after Horton had already taken 3 strides.
And 4 games for Rome. NHL gets it right.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeletesometimes i think there's some posters here who have their kids on a leash and forgot that life happens as full speed (not frames per second
The NHL has stated that players can "finish" their checks up to .5 sec after the puck has been released by a player.
Television cameras take 30 frames per second, so using the frames that have passed is an accurate way to measure the time since Horton released the puck.
If you tell me what unit of time measurement you use, perhaps I can convert it, but my seconds - sundial and seconds - moons is a little rusty.
.how was rome supposed to stop?
Ask every other NHLer who doesn't make that hit when they have chance to. Turning the skate blades perhaps? Then again its Rome, and he may not be that good at turning his skate blades.
NHL gave him 4 games, the rest of the playoffs. That's about right.
Good on the league for going more than what we expected. Probably Rome is a bit of the fall-guy for the NHL wanting to calm the serious down after last night's game, but I still think it sends the right message about those types of hits.
ReplyDeletebobeatin - going wide on Mironov
series (not serious) - heaven help my students
ReplyDeletemiterb - what Bryan Murray took halfway through a semester in university
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ReplyDeleteOn the Cactus point: I agree, in part because I think enough of the scouts to think they are using numbers (e.g. TOI; count the stopwatches in the stands when scouts are in town) to which we don't have access. There are just too many scouts backing of Couturier for there not to be a real concern somewhere. He still might be the best player in the draft -- the numbers we can see are there and he has impressive size and a good level of sustain -- but I suspect there are rational reasons (not just blind devotion to the new prospects) for the drop.
ReplyDeleteThe Rome hit was a fraction away from being a full second late. I suspect he is getting some of the punishment that might have been dealt to Burrows; with the gong show that incident has fueled, Rome was an easy guy to even the disciplining score on.
Also, any #1s who dropped in their draft-eligible season who made the scouts look bad? Still no replies. There has to be a few.
Ducey: It was 3:30 in the morning. So sorry. Not the best comment perhaps.
ReplyDeleteBut I still put in doubt the 30 minutes thingy. It just doesn't stick with mononucleosis and his outrageous number of games.
Jfry - No, you're incorrect because even under the old rules that hit was illegal. Both as an interference penalty and as a high hit. He could have (and should have if you think the right play there was to stand up at the blue line) made a clean hit on a better read that was sooner and knocked Horton down, but he didn't. Likely because Rome is a bad hockey player and knows he couldn't knock Horton down without an illegal method.
ReplyDeleteWell they basically traded their Jason Strudwick for Boston's best playoff scorer.
ReplyDeleteI just hope Boston keeps after it and stays in Vancouver's faces. So many Canuck players are easily distracted and quit playing hockey when faced with a team that won't take their BS. I worry that Julien won't keep them amped up as high as they need to be.
ReplyDelete@ Jfry... you're entitled to your opinion. You're wrong, but you're entitled to it.
ReplyDeleteUnless Boston can hammer the Canucks three straight, I reckon the Canucks will worm their way into a cup, Carolina style.
ReplyDeleteI think there are two legitimate concerns with SC: his first couple of steps (fixable) sorry Duce another guy that fixed footspeed- Eberle) and why is he falling in draft.
ReplyDeleteBoth are legitimate concerns. Think think 1st is capable of being fixed. Have no clue on the second concern.
If SC was playing 30 minutes and had Mono- his coaches were crazy!!
I believe that the scouts don't see the upside to Couturier that they see to RNH.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's basically the difference. The skating may or may not be fixable, that depends on the individual. I think the bigger factor is SC's vision and creativity. I think the scouts are ranking RNH higher in these areas and thus higher in the rankings. Not that SC is bad in these skills, but that RNH is better.
NHL got it wrong. Should've allowed Boston the opportunity to pick which player on the Canucks gets suspended. These kind of cheap shots would disappear immediately.
Check out this recently posted link from the Avalanche website. It has a video inside the scouting staff meeting. They run through the top picks and list strengths and weaknesses.
ReplyDeleteTheir Q scouts mention that Couturier played at least 30 minutes a night in junior. They said he was out every 2nd shift. I know logging a ton of ice is a concern for you LT in the past with Schremp and others.
They spend the longest time on Couturier as far a weaknesses and concerns go. They seem to be really questioning his drive / compete level etc...
http://video.avalanche.nhl.com/videocenter/console
It is really worth your time to watch this.
Questioning someone on Mono about his ''drive'' seems pretty shallow.
ReplyDeleteAfter the Johnson trade I can't say I put much trust in the Colorado organization, when it comes to player evaluation.
fbv,
ReplyDeleteimo the trade wasn't bad for Colorado.They now have a 1-2 D-man they didn't have before,their defence was/is comparable to the Oilers.That and they felt a need to shake up something that wasn't working.
After the Johnson trade I can't say I put much trust in the Colorado organization, when it comes to player evaluation.
ReplyDeleteEspecially when their conclusions differ from yours! ;-)
I really don't care who gets picked (I don't even care if the Oilers pick first overall - just that they do the best thing for this organisation to improve as quickly as possible. Anything less is just an unkednes to their fans)
MA Pouliot is probably why I'm ignorantly happy to go along with 14 out of 15 scouts.
ReplyDeleteFirst you draft a player with "issues", telling yourself stuff like 'oh, but if only this guy didn't have mono or whatever, it would be such a better situation.'
Hunter, I think you've misinterpreted the situation a bit. MAP got mono in 2006, 3 years after his draft year. It pretty much derailed the remainder of his season and likely impacted his ability to gain traction in the following season.
Couturier on the other hand, maintained his level of play from the previous season while regaining his strength from his bout of mono.
Similarly Logan Couture still managed to put up a bit over a PPG coming back from mono mid-season his draft year. To context it, he was touted by more than a few scouts as being on the short list for 1st overall coming into the season. Toss in the deep cut on his knee through a freak accident just before the under 18 worlds and you can see why his stock dropped.
It's one thing to get knocked flat on your posterior by mono (such as any of us mere mortals) but to resume playing shortly afterwards or battle back from it during a season and still manage to be an impact player...that sort of shouts I'm a helluvan athlete.
Both:
ReplyDeleteErik Jonhson 22 years old
29 Points, 77 games -12
GFON/60 : 2,21 GAON/60 : 2,71
Corsi REL: -0,4 Corsi ON: 1,47
QT: 0,066 (1st D and 3rd reg)
QC: 0,019 (1st D and 4th reg)
PDO: 980
Chris Stewart 22 years old
53 Points, 62 games -6
GFON/60: 3,00 GAON/60 : 3,00
Corsi REL: 1,9 Corsi ON: 1,5
QT: 0,149 (First RW, 3rd reg)
QC: 0,045 (First RW, 3rd reg)
PDO: 990
Kevin Shattenkirk 21 years old
41 points, 72 games -4
GFON/60: 2,98 GAON/60: 2,77
Corsi REL: 7,3 Corsi ON: 3,42
QT: 0,043 (3rd D, 9th reg)
QC: -0,044 (4th D, 14th reg)
PDO: 998
A 1st pairing defenseman bleeding like a pig. (Normal he's 22), for a 22 years old power forward who can play the toughs and produces a lot AND a 21 years old guy doing well against 2nd pairing assignement.
I think EJ would post similar numbers to Shattenkirk given similar time. It was just silly to give 2 for 1.
Didn't count Mcclement because those type of guys are always available in August for 900,000$
uni: Sorry to be so lame. I was really thinking about that elbow Pouliot took off Dion Phaneuf in the Top Prospects game.
ReplyDeleteI hate to see the players I'm supposed to like getting beaten up by the opposition, when it's meant to be the other way around.
Mercy me boy, someone needs to introduce you to the concept of irony.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu: Care to explain?
ReplyDeleteI made a minor joke, poking at your insistence of Couturier, even over the Col scouting staff, and you responded with a detailed breakdown of the players involved in a non-related hockey deal to bolster your point. I'd have preferred you called me superscilious, over-simplistic or merely laughed at my foolishness.
ReplyDeleteYou get too intense on stuff and you'll start to get ulcers. I am just trying to have a little fun to distract myself from the crap going on around in the real world. That's all (and I recognise that I can be a bit obscure in my humor too - but that is my particular set of blinders involved my reality)
Bar Qu: Haha. Well sorry then. I just have trouble detecting tempers on the internet.
ReplyDeleteHunter, yeah that concussive blow was a helluva thing. Poor MAP, elbow to the noggin' to go with mono, and various other ailments. Robbed him of a lot of developmental time.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I wonder what would have become of him if not for the injuries, I doubt he would have been as good as Doug Lynch. From the clippings LT's posted that's a classic case prospect that is all but guaranteed to be a future impact NHL player quashed by injury.
The draft is a crap shoot.
uni: All the more reason to avoid, everything else being equal, players with a history of injury.
ReplyDeleteHave read about the concerns with Courturier here and was intrigued by something MBS said to Brownlee over at ON (paraphrasing) on him:
ReplyDelete"He's got vision, hockey sense and puck control...He could be a first line centre...he has to get quicker speed wise."
If the quickness has been made worse by his mono and that's the one reason why he's dropping it would be very dissapointing.
I've not seen any concerns anywhere with respect to his maturity - which when there is no obvious physical flaw usually becomes the next go to complaint with draft eligible kids.
He's put up steady points two years running and maybe that's part of the issue - no meteoric rise in production (although the mono explains a lot).
That said, if RNH is truly that much better than Courturier or anyone else, then so be it but I'd really like to hear management explain it when the time comes without resorting to over-the-top flowery superlatives.
Oilerdiehard - Their Q scouts mention that Couturier played at least 30 minutes a night in junior. They said he was out every 2nd shift. I know logging a ton of ice is a concern for you LT in the past with Schremp and others.
ReplyDeleteValid concern, but unlike Schremp and Gagner, Couturier doesn't have a Kane + Kostitsyn + McRae or Bolland + Perry + Drummond + Syvret... Drummondville had Palat and Couturier as the two man tandom. Crosby in his draft year also played half the game when they had Pouliot and Rousin on the same line as Sid the Kid. Only half way through the year did they put Pouliot on the second line to create more even attack.
Point of the matter is what kind of line mates did Couturier have? We know from the interview with Cameron Moon (see Oilernation) that RNH did not play with Frosee 5-on-5 his line mates weren't slouches either.
GXL
Is Papa Campbell still working in the backgrounds? Talk about not getting a fair shake...
ReplyDeleteWhere was the NHL when Rome's head got plastered into the boards by McGinn, causing him to miss the rest of the SJS series. And this was done by a recent repeat offender - McGinn got the same 5-min boarding major in the 1st round vs L.A.
If I were Rome I'd be pretty pissed...and have every right to be.
His mates were Palat and Brunelle.
ReplyDeleteAgree with Rich
ReplyDeleteHave no difficulty with Oil selecting RNH is a clear better pick. Would hate that SC fall for things that are fixable-footspeed and explainable-Mono.
Still does not explain why SC is falling
If Colorado is selecting Landeskog, Fla, NJD and Ottawa are going to get good players
fpb:
ReplyDeleteAs much as some people would like,I doubt trades are made based solely on stats.Maybe Stewart/Shattenkirk were at odds with the coaches or management.They were a team that made the playoffs last year and looked on the cusp of becoming something better.Then their season went south and they were looking to shake up the team.
As far as not liking the scouts that dissed Couturier,they would have been amateur scouts,where as pro scouts would have been involved in the trade.
Well of course they are. You tend to get the good ones in the lottery.
ReplyDeleteCheck out this recently posted link from the Avalanche website. It has a video inside the scouting staff meeting. They run through the top picks and list strengths and weaknesses.
ReplyDeleteTheir Q scouts mention that Couturier played at least 30 minutes a night in junior. They said he was out every 2nd shift. I know logging a ton of ice is a concern for you LT in the past with Schremp and others.
They spend the longest time on Couturier as far a weaknesses and concerns go. They seem to be really questioning his drive / compete level etc...
http://video.avalanche.nhl.com/videocenter/console
It is really worth your time to watch this.
I was really hoping Sakic was going to say, boy that RNH kid sure does remind me of myself.
Hockeyguy: No. Indeed. But I assume if the management accept such manoeuvres by their pro department, not based on rationality or statistics, that they would accept the same from their amateur department.
ReplyDeleteI'll play devil's advocate here without pretending I am qualified to be a pro scout or that I have access to anywhere near as much info as they do on each of these prospects.
ReplyDeleteMy top 3 wishlist has changed and if it's F only my picks are 1)Huberdeau, 2)Landeskog 3)Couturier predicated on how they advanced themselves over the course of the year. Not putting much stock into the linemates argument because I think getting slotted between Hall/Eberle/Hemsky as a C would be a slight cut above.
It's reasonable to see Huberdeau as this years Hall based on his Mem cup performance. He scored some goals it takes real talent to score and you just can't teach that. Kid knows now what it means to be a winner and if rapid advancement over the course of the year is a warning flag I really don't know why. Isn't that what these kids are supposed to do?
Landeskog is, according to most scouts, the most NHL ready, (contrary to FPB's observation), plus he's a RW power forward the Oilers could make use of sooner vs later. They don't grow on trees and I really don't care that some see his upside as 25 goals at the pro level. I think he's insurance against the real possibility of Hemsky continually going down early and often and he brings needed size and leadership abilities.
Couturier is intriguing for a number of reasons but there just has to be a reason he isn't included in most scouts top 2 F lists. He has the right toolkit by the looks of it but it comes with a lot of question marks included. I am highly suspect of a guy suffering the after effects of mono playing 30 mins a night AND I really do believe there are more q's re kids playing in the QMJHL vs the other two leagues. Unless their name is Crosby or they pay G. Sorry FPB but it's just an opinion.
As I say I am not a pro scout and ballpark 7 of 10 that are qualified RNH as the "best" pick by a good margin. Of all the stats that's the toughest one to ignore. All said and done I think the top 3, barring a trade, goes 1) Edm - RNH 2) Colo - GL 3) Flo - Huberdeau