There was a goal scored at this year's Memorial Cup I'll remember for a long time. It was an absolute beauty, Jonathan Huberdeau going shelf with a shot that one imagines would have counted in any league. Huberdeau's rise through the draft rankings this year was the stuff of legends. We're used to seeing kids take time to establish themselves at the top of the draft, but Huberdeau's rise was pure Hale-Bopp.
Huberdeau did not appear on Bob McKenzie's early rankings and was not on Red Line's radar. By January, Huberdeau was parked at #9 on McKenzie's list but miles from the lottery.
As of right now, BM suggests Huberdeau is on the outskirts of the top 2, with a strong chance his name will be called in the top 3 at the entry draft. It's been quite a ride for Huberdeau, and some of us can't help thinking about that sniper's touch displayed at the Memorial Cup.
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Kirk Luedeke: He's the complete package of physical tools, hockey skills and sense with a natural knack for scoring. Versatile; spent most of the season on the left wing, but is a natural center. NHL teams like multi-taskers. He's also a mature kid who carries himself well and exudes professionalism. There is no reason to think that Huberdeau can't crack the top-5 in June when all is said and done, but if he doesn't he's gone no later than 6 or 7. He reminds us a lot of Luc Robitaille in the way he comes off during interviews, and we can't imagine he's going to drop much if at all when the draft comes.
ISS: He is a complete player, a great combination of work ethic, skill competitiveness and hockey sense.
Central Scouting's Chris Bordeleau: “He's the type of player who can change the outcome of a game suddenly and quickly. He's displayed unbelievably quick hands and an ability to set up and score goals. He definitely has NHL hands and playmaking ability . . . he's also gritty and does not back down when challenged.”
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One of Huberdeau's strongest points is his EV points-per-game. We need to remember that he played on the best CHL team in the land, but there's a story here:
- Jonathan Huberdeau 67gp, 27-43-70 1.04
- Ryan Strome 65gp, 22-42-64 .985
- Sean Couturier 58gp, 23-32-55 .948
- Gabriel Landeskog 53gp, 24-23-47 .887
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 69gp, 20-27-47 .681
- Ryan Strome 12-28-40
- Sean Couturier 14-24-38
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
- Jonathan Huberdeau 15-21-36
I believe the Oilers will take the Burnaby kid number one, after a long discussion about Adam Larsson. The other guy in the conversation may be Huberdeau; he had an enormous playoff and showcased his skills on the national stage. He might be the best player in the 2011 entry draft.
So does a rocket up the charts mean a good player?
ReplyDeleteHere are Huberdeau's last two seasons (regular season only):
09/10 61gp 15g 20a 35pts .573pts/gm
10/11 67gp 43g 62a 105pts 1.567pts/gm
An increase of about 175%
Scott Reynolds does a great job looking at correlation between draft year -1 and draft year pts/gm increases and NHL performance.
It doesn't mean Hurberdeau is a bad pick, far from it. It does mean that he is probably a riskier pick.
Funny thing is that a lack of big increase in pts/gm is used as a negative for Couturier and given Reynolds paper on the subject, it should be a positive.
I think there's so much we don't know about how these kids were used one season to another. Strome, for instance, was traded so it's likely he didn't play as much for the team that sent him away as someone like Couturier.
ReplyDeleteWe need TOI.
Many many years ago Greg Joly had a great Memorial Cup and was taken first overall largely on great tourney. That was a bad pick. If Huberdeau's great MC is the reason he is in the top 3 it could be risky.
ReplyDeleteThing that surprises me is Couterier has a slow first couple of steps. That can be improved with diligence. He does everything else
Thing that surprises me is Couterier has a slow first couple of steps. That can be improved with diligence. He does everything else
ReplyDeleteI have seen no evidence of this skating improvement.
Schremp and Stortini took lots of skating to try and improve - it never took.
We need TOI.
ReplyDeleteIf the CHL publishes TOI the terrorists win.
I wonder if they don't do it at request of the NHL?
It would seem that it would be in the NHL teams that scout the CHL heavily best interest to not publish that data to give them an edge in scouting.
The sisters of the poor (like BUF used to be) that relies on video scouting and number crunching wouldn't be at as much a disadvantage compared to the richer teams that can afford a fleet of CHL scouts and stop watches.
It always seems like whatever benefits Philadelphia the most is the stance of the NHL on most subjects.
Ducey
ReplyDeleteDo not believe anyone says SC is a bad skater. Believe concern is his starts. Remember RNH did not even make WJHC team.
All sorts of players have improved their starts. Ethan Moreau was an adequate skater when traded to the Oilers and developed into above average skater with powerful starts. Gary Roberts is another
If you believe Couterier skates like Zach Stortini or Robbie Schremp. I will be unable to convince you to the contrary. Zach Stortini FFS!
I asked Strome's coach about it when interviewing him, and he said the club looked at acquiring the technology for TOI but spent the money elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't sound like there's a universal measurement system. Maybe pockets.
Huberdeau has some real nice tools. Strike me as an Andrew Brunette, but with more sniping and heroics. I think he'll have a Zetterberg type transformation as he'll start on the wing and eventually could move to center. He has excellant vision and real slimy down low. Just has an uncanny ability for timing. Like RNH, SC, GL and AL, whoever takes him will take him because thats just the teams taste. I don't think there is a lot separating them.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteQuit ruining my "Ed Snider runs the NHL" narrative with facts. :)
The pockets in the CHL are getting deeper...
WG: This should make you feel better
ReplyDeletehttp://news.google.com/newspapers?id=jbwnAAAAIBAJ&sjid=lmwDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5312,3324380&dq=ed+snider&hl=en
Would not shock me if Huberdeau wound up being the best player in this year's draft in 3 or 4 years.
ReplyDeleteAgain, shows what crapshoot all of this is going to be because their are many stories in these numbers and there isn't one player who's stats universally say that this player or that is elite.
Am coming around to the opinion (after potential trades here the last two days) that it may be riskier trading down. While we don't know exactly what we'll get a few years from now out of the top 5 the next tier seems pretty settled and it may cost more than we'll eventually get.
If that is in fact the case, you'll need at some point in time to trust your scouts that they've done the job and pull the trigger on the one you project will be best.
The good thing here is that it does seem pretty unaminous that whoever is picked, they're not going to be on the roster next season - so at least they'll get more development time.
gonepult: MBS gonepult another one out of his hat.
Interestingly Wolman started the Flyers with Snider, but sold his shares to Snider in August of 1967, a few months before Wolman punted Snider from the Eagles
ReplyDeleteWolman ended up bankrupt and Snider ends up worth a few hundred million.
Also, LT,
This site makes turning web addresses into clickable links in HTML a snap
TOJ,
ReplyDeleteIn addition to good physical presence and skating, Moreau had shown a remarkable scoring touch in his draft year.
From Wiki. I don't think Moreau had skating problems. He was a 14th OV pick.
I picked Stortini and Schremp because there were all kinds of stories when they were first on the verge about how they were working with a power skating coach to improve their skating.
Betting on a 6'4" guy who is only going to get bigger (and heavier) to improve his first step seems like a low percentage move.
There are a ton of guys who never stuck or have question marks because they can't keep up (Alex Giroux, and Plante come to mind too).
Maybe Couturier will improve, maybe it doesn't even matter.
I'd rather bet on a guy getting bigger and stronger (an almost certainty that comes with age) than a guy improving a fundamental "flaw" in his game.
We need TOI.
ReplyDeleteLT: I remember banging that drum for the NHL stats about 25-30 years ago. They finally delivered, and what a huge difference it made. Not only a hugely important stat in and of itself, all of a sudden you could parse Everything per unit ice time.
Agree that for these juniors we're doing a whole helluva lot of guessing without it.
The other thing that's funky is these results from the combine. Huberdeau had horrible results across the board. Does this mean:
ReplyDeletea) he's tuckered out from the just-finished playoffs? [ignore results]
b) he's a lousy athlete? [red flag]
c) he's a poorly-trained athlete who will explode with proper training? [green flag]
Pick one.
Thornton, Selanne, Ovechkin, St. Louis, Palffy, Modano, Sakic, Kovalchuk, Kariya, Jagr, Iginla, Heatley and Forsberg are the only five tme 80 point men in that period. Three WHLers, One OHLer, three college men, a Finn, a Swede, two Russkies, a Czech and a Slovak.
ReplyDeleteFactoring in where a guy comes from when you're looking for perenially elite scorers is a fool's game. These guys are like albino unicorns - finding one in a certain location is no indication the next one will be there.
That period = 95-96 to present. Sayingyouget crtain types of player from certain places when you're talking elites is Lazy streotyping.
ReplyDeleteDucey: History would show otherwise.
ReplyDeleteBig men have a ratio of success almost 30% over their smaller counterpart.
(Ran a search of 6''4 90+ points guys (all were 1st rounders) and a run of the 6''1 to 5''11 90+ points guys, using 70+ points ''career year'' as the marker, it was about 90-63.
Sorry for the self advertising, but I'm compiling a list of Oilers related words which have emerged on the Oilogosphere. I'm calling it Oilingo.
ReplyDeletehttp://oilrefinery.mywebcommunity.org/?page_id=15
I've noticed that a lot of terminology has arisen over the last few weeks or months over here on LT's blog. I have well known stuff up but I would also like to collect some of these new words as well.
If you know any can you send me a message via Twitter, antonyta88.
Thanks guys.
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I think Huberdeau will be a power forward in the tradition of James VanRiemsdyk.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteTambellini mentioned this week that the Memorial Cup players usually come in skinny and tired. Said Hall was the same way last year. I wouldn't think Huberdeau is any different. They're looking for effort more than anything else.
@Bruce: Ice time is probably a lot more important in juniors than for, say guys who come out of the SEL or KHL who don't get to play that much anyway because they're stuck behind veterans.
ReplyDeleteUnless this is what you're saying, and I'm preaching to the choir.
Some guy on Twitter who calls himself "HockeyBreak" and styles himself as a "hockey insider", is tweeting that:
ReplyDelete"The Flyers and Blue Jackets are closing in on a trade that would involve Jeff Carter to Columbus. The trade would occur at the draft"
I'm not going to say this guy has the goods, I have no idea, but when there's smoke.....
I hope v3.0 is in there pitching.
I thought Lowe does the pitchin and Tambo the catchin.
ReplyDeleteDucey:
ReplyDeleteWe don't have the specifics re: Couturier's skating. Maybe it was seen at the combine that Couturier's legs don't have as much muscle as teams would like, and teams think that if he adds some lower body weight and takes some power skating his skating issues will go away. Maybe they saw him, and see his skating style, and think it's something that will only get worse as he moves up the food chain. I haven't heard too much for specifics about it, except (I think ?) it was Kirk Luedeke suggesting there is room for improvement.
I thought Lowe does the pitchin and Tambo the catchin.
ReplyDeleteWow.
@Raven: I think ice time info is important at whatever level, provides hugely important context. If a guy is playing 37 minutes (as if!) in Tier Two, well, that's great but I wouldn't draft him because of it and I would look considerable askance at his stats (and his league). OTOH if a junior is playing 11 minutes a night I would look askance at that too, because why isn't he playing more against his peers? But if a kid in the SEL is putting up half-decent numbers in 8 minutes a night he's probably better than his boxcars, and may well be getting suppressed due to a team situation beyond his control.
ReplyDeleteTOI is valuable information in almost any setting, and if it breaks down special teams minutes, so much the better.
What Bruce said. TOI helps anywhere.
ReplyDeleteI still don't believe people are dinging Larsson for playing 18 minutes a night in the regular season, then 22-23 minutes in the playoffs, as an 18 year old, for not being able to usurp the two relative veterans Erixon & Rundblad on the #1 PP (these guys are 20 and were 1st rounders themselves).
Yeah, an 18 year old apparently playing big minutes in the SEL and putting up good numbers should be curbed because he's playing behind two highly skilled older players drafted in the 1st round before him. TOI would give a lot of context as to the real situation there.
I think a player can improve skating. Jaret Stoll is a good example. So is Horcoff. But both players had drive levels that were off the charts. TOI and the intangibles like drive are the 2 reasons why I don't predict draft rankings. I dont have enough information.
ReplyDeleteLT, I'd love to read a post about good trade candidates for the Oilers. Its not the time (or ever is) to sell young talent but IMO it is time to start improving the team. The list could be simplified to financially strapped teams or teams against the cap but it could be an interesting example.
Was - are they shopping Mike Green?
Phi - are they shopping Jeff Carter
Min - at the cap and 12th place. Is Cam Barker available? Any contracts worth picking up?
CBJ - bleeding money, relations with the Oilers
Fla - some nice young D talent
Chi - still more salary to clear
Nas - a plethora of young D. Seem like a good trade partner
Pho - money issues
Lowetide:
ReplyDeleteI know you don't like it when people tell you what you should write but I've going through some old threads and its just as blast.
Honestly, I find reading a single thread from the past to be much more informative than reading 10 threads with fresh ink. Right now everything is speculative and by the time we get our answers we've already moved on to new questions.
Just an idea (I know. You hate it.)
Mike Ribeiro was drafted in the 2nd round for skating issues. He fixed it. And he's not exactly a guy with incredible drive.
ReplyDeleteCouturier's skating is not that much of an issue. He didn't look shifted at the WJC. He just isn't fast.
FPB: So was Rob Schremp. Schremp still can't skate to save his life at NHL level, so what's your point? That these dubious prospects, who have managed to coast through their kiddie careers without bothering to skate properly magically become driven players totally into improving the most fundamental skill imaginable for a hockey player?
ReplyDeleteBobby Orr, one of the greatest skaters imaginable used to go on a 5 mile run every night as a teenager. The relative lames you champion probably sit on their arses, reading press clippings.
Hunter
ReplyDeleteThe issue is not whether he will get a better 1st step, it is whether he can train to overcome that deficiency.
It's not like he is small, undersized, unable to win faceoffs, score 5 on 5 ...geez with the exception of Horcoff that is the entire group of Oilers centers
Hunter: Assuming Couturier won't be able to fix it (If he even NEEDS fixing) is the same as assuming RNH will never be big and will get bonecrushed like Daigle.
ReplyDelete(He quoted it as to why he didn't push farther in the NHL, it was too tough)
The Other John - Fair enough, but why don't these idiots bother learning how to play the game properly before they're drafted?
ReplyDeleteHunter: Why can't RNH put on his pounds before he goes in the NHL?
ReplyDeleteTraktor:
ReplyDeleteI completely agree when you say that all of our subject matter is speculative right now. Honestly, this is a big part of why I barely post at this time of year - we're all just spinning our wheels with different opinions about the same information. Some people can get passionate about one or another prospect or issue but with the limited information we have being inconclusive I'm not one of those guys.
That said, I think that it's just a function of this time of year and not really something Lowetide or any of us have much control over. People are going to want to talk draft and so that's what you'll see.
Just my two cents.
FPB: RNH is projected to end up around 190 which is perfectly fine for a centerman. And he's over 6 foot tall, so perhaps you're ahem, being a tad emotional re your fave prospect?
ReplyDeleteFPB: You might be right about Couturier. I haven't got a clue really.
ReplyDeleteHunter: Well then I could say there's some guys who had ''skating troubles'' at the beginning of their career and ended up winning big time (Lecavalier, Thornton) and that generally it's normal for big men to thrive anyway.
ReplyDeleteSo yeah. It much seems like a non-issue for both. I'm much more concerned by RNH's lack of ES scoring and goals.
FPB: What do you think the chances are that Oilers try to tank the next two seasons, in a lunatic quest for both of Yakupov/McKinnon?
ReplyDeleteHunter: 0%. I don't think they get there. Torches and pitchforks before that.
ReplyDeleteMckinnon might not even join the QJMHL.
And Yakupov... damn. Might be a genereational talent. 100 points when you're 16 years old. Might go a bit near Crosby.
WG: (First post of all)
ReplyDeleteI think when you add last year's playoff performances (Where I first heard about him) it's less ugly.
0,646 on his first year with playoffs. (Where he had 0,859)
1,581 with playoffs this year.
It's almost 90 games he went trough this year. So it's 1 and 1/2 season for a guy who's team don't make the playoffs.
With the assets this tean has and need for a player almost exactly like Carter - if he goes to a team like CLB for a reasonable price then it is clear the Oilers have no intention of icing a competitive team any time soon.
ReplyDeleteBig center - check
Still young - check
Goals - check
Strong ES - check
Signed long term - check
Showerhead and Traktor:
ReplyDeleteWhile it is all speculative at this time of year, what I enjoy about this blog is that there are more facts with reasoning thrown into the mix. In other places it just seems to be more opinions & emotions.
When it comes right down to it, Oilers mngmt is going to select who THEY think is going to help them in the future regardless of what anyone here says. Trying to divine intent is part of the process at this time of year. And because many of us are emotionally invested in the team - well that's part of being a fan. And some of it can be fun.
My sense says that this draft is shaping up like others where there is no elite talent. There are some good ones, guys who'll be productive for sure. But what annoys me is the assertation that there is someone here who's an absolute game changer when there is nothing to indicate that's the case.
It's then - particularly when sources in mgmnt (Vish?) assert that this one or that one reminds them of Gretzky. They should know better to not make outrageous statements - it's called a "credibility gap" and we've all had enough of that the last 5 years.
Rich: I like your perspective and might be more engaged in the discussion if everyone felt that way. When folks start talking in absolutes at this stage, that's when I start to lose interest. As far as I'm concerned Edmonton is getting a good player and that's good enough for me. I'll be lurking here from time to time and I will be watching on draft day but other than that it's fine by me that others are more passionate about speculation than I am. Like you said, it's a whole lot more enjoyable when that speculation is supported with evidence as often happens here.
ReplyDeleteI only get annoyed with people that are hell bent on tearing down other prospects rather than extolling the virtues of their personal favorites.
ReplyDeleteSounds too much like a ads from the election campaigns. X is crap, Y is your only choice!
Rich and Showerhead:
ReplyDeleteI'm not hating on any of the arguments.
All I'm saying is if we don't remember where we have been then we could easily run around in circles and end up in the same spot with ultimately no progress.
This isn't directed at anyone in particular, but there is TONS of information (questions answered) in some of the older threads that will no doubt help make a more informed decision about what we should do in the future.
With the assets this tean has and need for a player almost exactly like Carter - if he goes to a team like CLB for a reasonable price then it is clear the Oilers have no intention of icing a competitive team any time soon.
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps they will have spoken to Carter or his agent and found out that he won't come/ won't be happy/ will demand a trade.
The price for Carter will be high. Rumours have him going to any number of places (TOR, NYR, CLB, EDM).
The rumour re TOR was a first, Gunnarson, and Colborne/ Khadri.
Trading the 19th, Petry and MPS might do it, but that would slow down the rebuild and if he wants to bail the Oilers are then F'd.
Traktor - I agree but Showerhead is right, LT could post something entirely unrelated to the draft (and has recently I believe) and we always end up with the same folks arguing the same points.
ReplyDeleteI for one can't wait until the draft so we can then argue about how active the Oilers should be in FA and then for that to be over so we can spend July and August beating whatever comes up to death. ;)
I'm not just talking about prospects either.
ReplyDeleteSome of the opinions of certain players in older threads is truly jaw-dropping.
This is a largely related math blog and while I'm speaking in broader terms, a lot of times in order to get the right answer you need to first go back and recognize where you went wrong.
Ducey: Wouldn't that make the rebuild actually faster?
ReplyDeleteCould not agree more Rich - there are likely no game changers in this crop and making comps for this group to elite players and generational talents is beyond optimistic. I guess it's just less fun to compare Larsson to Ohlund, Huberdeau to Tanguay and RNH to Whitney - but likely a whole lot more reasonable.
ReplyDeleteFPB has a point about it accelerating the rebuild. Only thing is HOCE is harder to sell than HOPE.
ReplyDeleteTraktor, I was making jokes about the Oilers tanking again for Larsson this time last year, but thought it would never happen. Shows what I know. While I doubt it, I can actually picture Tambellini planning on another tank job to nab 'Yakky'. All he needs is a pencil mustache to twirl.
Gregor saying Oilers will dump Mac, Stortini, Strudwick and JFJ.
ReplyDeleteWhich is good.
Then he floats Konopka for $3,000,000 / 3 years.
Fights, win draws, kills penalties.
Well, he certainly fights.
He won 57% of his draws.
But he got fucking decimated on the PK.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2010/new_4_on_5.php?sort=21§ion=goals&mingp=40&mintoi=1&team=NYI&pos=F
(hattip to Woodguy for the PK stat)
I like the idea of Konopka... but the reaity, not so much.
Taking another putrid team's garbage usually isn't the wisest idea.
ReplyDeleteTrak – I have only three words to remind you of……….Cogliano, shooting percentage ☺
ReplyDeleteThis is a site about opinions and everyone has a number that were right and a number that were flat out wrong. Give google a good workout but we all have closets full of calls that were wise, ridiculous or just plain bat-shit crazy - kind of like a lot of the people who draw salaries as pro scouts in the NHL ☺
Awesome, I popped over to HF for a bit and they already have a slogan for the Oiler's next season:
ReplyDelete"Fail for Nail".
Although technically that would be pronounced fhaai'l for nhaai'l I suppose.
He scores and he can stay on his feet. Probably the best available player since Sid.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's also Alexander Galchenyuk at 83 points 16 years old.
ReplyDeleteIt might be the first time (I think?) both 1 and 2 picks come from the same club.
If the Oil are going for Nail they will need to play re-Khab 3 out of 4. That and they will, in LT's words, have to hobble their youngsters. I just don't think they can Nail their guy next year. (I think I hit the Nail on the head with that one. Watch out Gene!)
ReplyDeleteJust forget about Russians outside of the big markets (with large wealthy Russian expat communties). You can't build around them, because they will go to the big markets at the first opportunity.
ReplyDeleteMaybe once a small market is a established contender that might change.
Russians are different.
Godot: Yeah. You know, especially Galchenyuk who's American, and the other who shifted from Russia to the metropolis of Sarnia.
ReplyDeleteDucey: Wouldn't that make the rebuild actually faster?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess it depends up on how you look at it.
Carter on the first line might improve the team to the point they make the playoffs, but the fact they have dumped a bunch of guys in the process makes it less likely they will do anything when they get there.
A trade of key assets for Carter just puts us back on that 8/9th place treadmill I tired of in the last 20 years. The rebuild would be stunted and for nothing.
Re Konopka. I'd take him over JFJ, SMac, and Sortini put together. He has holes in his game no doubt but he can actually play the game a little. Our current toughies can't.
Ducey: From seeing him play he's pretty much just like JFJ exept the winning draws part.
ReplyDeleteA trade of key assets for Carter just puts us back on that 8/9th place treadmill I tired of in the last 20 years. The rebuild would be stunted and for nothing.
ReplyDeleteIt really depends on what you have to give up for Carter.
One of the reasons they were on the 8/9 treadmill was lack of players like Carter.
If you are not giving up Hall,Eberle,MPS,Petry,DD,Whitney or Gilbert it can make sense.
You would need Hemsky under contract for it make sense as well.
I agree that if you give up too much, it makes no sense, but given PHI's cap situation its reasonable to think they'd only want one inexpensive NHL player back and the rest of the package being picks and non-nhl prospects.
I, gasp, agree with Ducey.
ReplyDeleteCarter only makes sense if he is willing to play here. Another CFP situation is a waste of time. Would need to resign Hemsky. Also agree with WG that price for the trade would have to be right, ie not a core asset. Do not identify DD as a core asset.
I would not trade our 2012 1st (better draft year) but would move anyone in system not named: Hall,Eberle,MPS,Petry,Whitney or Gilbert
Fuck the Nucks, excuse my French. *spits*
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Konopka. He's better than what we have. He'd sign for sure if it was a 3 year deal.
ReplyDeleteCarter... Our firsts this year and next should also be off the table.
Cancel the Konopka thought. The Bruins have proven beyond a doubt in this series that the best deterrant to cheap shots is a prolific power play.
ReplyDelete4th line players should never get 3 year contracts period (in a salary cap system). A contending team might do it, but it pretty dumb for a last place team to do it.
ReplyDeleteI'd include the #19 and #31 for Carter, but there is no way I include the #1 this year or the first round next year.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm talkin about! Go Bo-town.
ReplyDeleteHuughson sounds crushed... awwww, Muuufffin.
ReplyDelete