Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Ryan O'Marra 10-11: Things Have Changed

The day the Oilers gave Ryan O'Marra a qualifying offer, they walked Marc Pouliot and Ryan Potulny. From that point forward, I think it was a lock that the Oilers would employ O'Marra at the big league level during the 10-11 season.

Why? The depth chart--as always--was so razor thin to begin the season it was only a matter of time before troops would be needed on the front lines.
The crazy thing isn't that O'Marra played in the NHL this season. He was absolutely the most likely recall among Barons C's as the season began. The crazy thing is that as the season ends I don't know that O'Marra is ahead of any of the AHL centers on the depth chart. And they've just signed Lander.
--
Ryan O'Marra 10-11
  • 5x5 points per 60: 1.12 (10th among forwards but DNQ)
  • 5x4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 15th toughest faced among forwards but DNQ 
  • Qual Team: 12th best available teammates among forwards but DNQ 
  • Corsi Rel: -21.1 (17th best among forwards but DNQ)
  • Zone Start: 60.4% (easiest among forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.4% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 13/7.7% (13th best among F's but DNQ)
  • Boxcars: 21gp, 1-4-5
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -52
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Easy competition, best zone start available and his CorsiRel was still horrible. He played with either Jones-Reddox (17%) or Jones-Omark (17%) but I don't think he showed a lot of offense. His faceoff percentage (42.1%) wasn't a strong point, either. This was a great opportunity for him and I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that he delivered.
  2. How could these numbers be better? All of the Oilers kids were skating uphill this season, but O'Marra isn't really a kid. Of the group that we could consider actual hockey players, my vote for least impressive goes to O'Marra.
  3. How many C's have passed him? I think O'Marra can see all of their taillights. Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Fraser, now Vande Velde. You could put O'Marra ahead of Kytnar and Arcobello if you like, but he'll be 24 this fall and the team has signed Anton Lander. PLUS there's talk of bringing in an actual NHL center this summer (I know, I know).
  4. Does he have any chance? Sure. Same chance as Jacques: the Edmonton Oilers see a hockey player there. O'Marra did have his moments this season in the NHL but I don't think it's enough to hold back the kids. Also, this is his second NHL organizaion and a good bet for next stop would be Europe.
  5. He played well in the AHL. Yes, on a line with Linus Omark and Liam Reddox. And when we say "played well" it's important to give credit to faceoffs (he was apparently very good in OKC) and he was very physical. However, his offense in OKC (53gp, 2-20-22) included a streak of 18gp, 0-2-2 after all the skill had been recalled to the show. He didn't force the recall, they ran out of bullets.
  6. What kind of player is he? O'Marra: "I’m a big centreman who plays physical down low. I’m good on the penalty kill and I win faceoffs."
  7. Sounds like the Oilers could use him. They could use an NHL player with those skills.
  8. What impressed you most about him? I was impressed that he got a deal over Pouliot. That was exceptional. The only area he was better than Pouliot was in his physical play and that carried the day. A poor decision.
  9. You had him playing in the NHL this past season. Yes, the Oilers had so little depth I felt he'd play in the NHL this past season.
Prediction for 2010-11: 24gp, 1-3-4 (.167)

Actual 2010: 21gp, 1-4-5 (.238)

Depth is important

45 comments:

  1. Have no idea why but KLowe refuses to admit he ever made a mistake. this flaw results in JFJ getting 23 chances at a roster spot and repeated attempts to see if ROM can make the big club.

    People might have better respect for our management group if the statement "I'm sorry I bleeped that one up" was ever told to the fanbase

    Not sure what ROM is supposed to be good at and only reason I can think of to keep him around would be to try for the exalted never been done before Triple Crown of ineptitude: 30th overall 3 straight years in a row.

    Time to get an NHL calibre 3C that wins faceoffs and kills penalties rather than pray ROM or CVV can develop into role.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Put him with JFJ and you've got 2/3 of that lottery pick line Katz/Lowe/Tambellini covets so dearly.

    Looks like the Oilers "strategy" is to mix putrid players like this and Jacques along with the Hall's and Eberle's...right up to the point where after another 2-3 seasons there will be so many top draft picks emerging a cup contending team is all but guaranteed.

    Believe it, or not.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I like how Steve Y signed a goalie for this season, found out he sucked, got rid of him and then brought in Roloson.

    Nobody cares much about the mistakes as long as they get corrected. Admit your mistake and move on.

    If we would just get rid of players like Fraser and Foster when they clearly are hanging on to NHL jobs on the 30th place club by the slimmest of margins we would be far better off.

    *prolide - New energy drink endorsed by the ageless Dwayne Roloson

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Voxwah: Sure, Yzerman's being proactive - that's his style.

    Who really knows if it's the right way to go forward? Anyway, the Oilers have bigger fish to fry - such as holding the taxpayers of Edmonton to ransom. And planning the first ever 4-5 year in a row dynasty of 30th place teams, with corresponding 1st overall picks.

    You see, that way, everything will be great, just as soon as those silly taxpayers ante up and then the Katz gang can get to work on that shiny new clam shell(actually something more pornographic) shaped arena, that remarkably isn't much larger than the old one.

    ReplyDelete
  5. It's probably almost time to admit that Pierre McGuire was correct in his instant reaction to the Ryan Smyth trade.

    As I recall, he was flabbergasted by the return on the deal, remarking that O'Marra was a third-liner at best, Nilsson a second-liner at best, and the pick a middling first-rounder in a weak draft.

    Kudos to you McGuire!

    (Perhaps more astounding is the fact that we have retained the services of Ryan O'Marra over Robert Nilsson, a player who inarguably has the skill and ability to play a role on most NHL teams.)

    ouspums - Gross.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Let me suggest we all sit back, relax, and enjoy our various bandwagon cup teams.

    :p

    ReplyDelete
  7. KLowe on Bergenheim: GIVE THAT MAN TEN MILLION DOLLARS!

    ReplyDelete
  8. (Perhaps more astounding is the fact that we have retained the services of Ryan O'Marra over Robert Nilsson, a player who inarguably has the skill and ability to play a role on most NHL teams.)

    I suspect, contracts being equal, they'd have kept Nilsson.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SS: Well not like they lacked money, nor had a distaste for wasting it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Put more succinctly, Nilsson is a value contract at 850k, two million, not so much.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Well, they decided that Nilsson didn't fit on their full-time NHL roster; I think that call was at worst defensible and at best correct, though I suspect we'll see Nilsson back in the NHL at some point soon-ish. They're not big on spending $2 million on AHL players, I don't think - Souray's the only exception, and the buyout rules are much less favourable for him than they were for Nilsson.

    As for their willingness to waste money...I assume you're talking about guys like Khabibulin and maybe Vandermeer. Those are/were obviously bad contracts, but it's also not like they're keeping superior players down on the farm (or filling lesser NHL roles than they should be). The Oilers apparently decided that Nilsson was, and they've never shown a willingness to waste big money on players like that.

    I know you like Nilsson, and I think you make a pretty compelling case (which is a lot of why I expect him back in the NHL). But I think there's a good case to be made that he wasn't working out with the Oilers, and I can't blame them for not wanting to spend $2 million on a non-roster player who could be bought out cheap.

    No doubt that Nilsson's the superior player to O'Marra, though.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Danny: more succinctly than what? Did you psychically realize that I was typing up a rambling explanation?

    ReplyDelete
  13. SS: the spirit of your assertion wasn't completely embodied in your response.

    Namely, it left out that neither O'marra or Nilsson are worth 2M. Nilsson is doable at 850k.

    So your statement wasn't put more succintly, but your logic was, assuming you had taken the space to explain yourself better ;)

    ReplyDelete
  14. SS: I think after the 2nd season, the dice were already rolled for him, and it was quite sad.

    I know it's a shitty speach, but when you are last in the whole NHL, I don't see the fuzz in rolling the dices on a guy like that. Of course there's a fee to pay, but when you pay for guys like Strudwick and Macintyre, it's not like you're doing anything else than wasting money and roster spots anyway.

    Cogliano definitly had a worst season and was kept.

    That's the thing. It doesn't seem like it was upside issues, or future issues, much more than money.

    I think Nilsson still had way more potential in helping the club than a lot of guys they kept. Even if he wasn't in the plan, a good season and you trade him for a defenseman.

    When you already don't spend a lot of money, I think it's questionable.

    ReplyDelete
  15. If you keep Nilsson, you cut back on development time for guys like Eberle, OMark, PRV etc.

    Buying out Nilsson doesn't register on the Oilers laundry list of mistakes.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Danny: If you cut Cogliano instead not really?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Nilsson's two and a half years older than Cogliano, a difference that was even more significant then than it is now. As well, Cogliano's issues (brains, primarily) seemed more likely to be rectified over time than Nilsson's (heart, primarily). Nilsson was clearly a soft-opposition player, and you've only got room for so many of those guys, while the hope was (and seems to remain) that Cogliano could learn to face tough comp.

    ReplyDelete
  18. So you're saying keeping Nilsson would be better than Cogliano, because Nilsson would have more trade value ?

    If your end goal is to flip Nilsson for a defenseman, then I find your argument in Cogliano vs Nilsson contentious at best.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Danny: I'd say an ''Accomplished'' Nilsson would be worth more than what you'd need to get a real N3 center.

    Basically what I'm saying his:

    Ceiling is higher on one guy, even if they trade him, it would be worth more than what the ceiling of the other is.

    SS: Yeah well... I think heart becomes questionable when you're in an ejectable seat.

    Sergei Kostitsyn was blamed for that in MTL while being shake around like a child's toy. He was traded for shit in Nashville.

    Now he's a 50 points guy with +10 leading Nashville in scoring.

    It's all a question of what's the best that player can do in the end, and when it's a thing you can trade for a 3rd rounder, I think it's better to keep the wild horse because he has a shot at being something better.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anyone have Patrick O'Sullivans phone number?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Nilsson's job (as it turned out) landed in the hands of Linus Omark. Although they are (somewhat) similar players imo Omark is an upgrade.

    Nilsson certainly has talent, but he's smaller than one would think and a cherry picker. Omark did more as a rookie to impact the play in a positive direction that Nilsson did as an Oiler.

    jmo.

    ReplyDelete
  22. LT: This is all assuming in the end Nilsson is gone.

    There's a job for no one in my hypothetical scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  23. But in the end i'l blow it out of proportion because I like Nilsson.

    Everyone has his Nilsson.

    ReplyDelete
  24. contentious at best. Seems to be a pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Ya Nilson was so good other teams were falling over themselves to sign him.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Boopronger: I bet a lot of team wouldn't teach a lot of our players. It was never in question.

    ReplyDelete
  27. fpb you're edging ever so close to dsf territory.

    It's time to self reflect.

    Actually age usually fixes these things, unless you're actually dsf of course.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Have to say, after watching Marcus Johansson playing for the Caps in these playoffs, I'm not sure if Paajarvi was really the best Swedish forward taken in the 1st round of 2009.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Danny: Please do explain. I have a hard time finding what exactly's wrong in what i said.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I think the real problem for Nilsson was his contract structure. He was due to make 2.5 mil this past season, so even if he turns out a decent season for you, you still may not want to qualify him. And even if you do, he's two years from UFA, and arguably not a long term building block. So why invest the money, time, and opportunity?

    ReplyDelete
  31. Speeds: It's not exactly Nilsson who was the best option. It's what they did instead of Nilsson.

    ReplyDelete
  32. But I'm super biased for Nilsson anyway. That's another story.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Funny thing about the 2009-2010 DFL Oilers, they had six small forwards: Gagner, Brule, Cogliano, Nilsson, POS, Comrie. So they get rid of the last three and bring in Eberle, Omark and Reddox. Not exactly a bigger team.

    They lose Pisani, Moreau and MAP up front and replace them with Jacques, MacIntyre and Fraser.

    And Tambellini fires the equipment staff for doing a poor job?

    ReplyDelete
  34. He's better than Jacques, imho.

    disem: I just did.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Oilersfan:

    So who did Hall and Paajarvi replace?

    I would suggest that they were part of the true 'replacements' for Nilsson/POS/Comrie. Let's be fair, the main reason Omark and Reddox saw NHL ice was due to injuries.

    As for JFJ and Mac, JFJ played nearly an identical amount of games and had much less avg. icetime/game this year compared to last, so I wouldn't say he replaced anybody since he was already here. And given Mac's specific enforcer role combined with his 3:32 avg. icetime/game, can we say that he replaced much of anything?

    And where is Ryan Jones in this conversation? I'm pretty sure he replaced somebody here.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Let me get this right. Some of you want Nilsson back? Because he scored 5 goals in the KHL, or because he's tearing it up a bit at the worlds?

    Nilsson, one of the most heartless and cowardly players ever to grace the NHL? A player with about as much offensive talent as a fair to middling player, yet despite his talent, chooses to play like an out and out scrub?

    What next? Ethan Moreau to provide leadership? MA Bergeron for his offensive prowess?

    They need to make a new law in the NHL: Once a player x leaves his team, he's never allowed back. Under any circumstances. This rule alone will silence about 30% of all Oiler fan talk, instantly.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hunter: Hahaha. Allright you win.

    As for the rest, I think i'm saying a lot of shit that doesn't make sense lately, and pissing off a lot of people in the process.

    I should take a break of all this. I'l be back with a cleaner mind after the finals. Sorry all. See you guys on D day.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Forget Nilsson, bring back Patrick Thoresen!

    I don't know why he wouldn't fit in someplace in the NHL. He has killed in the KHL (6th in scoring and 1st in +/- for 09/10, 2nd in scoring in 10/11).

    Of course he is cursed with that sub-6 foot tag, so nobody wants him. Is it weird to want a Norwegian/Swede/Fin line to play together?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Nilsson was the second most talented forward (after 83) on the Oilers for the duration of his tenure. His problem is well know, even for those who aren't "in the know" - he liked to party more than he liked hockey. I see a man vs self motif in his career bio.

    ReplyDelete
  40. MA Bergeron for his offensive prowess?

    @Hunter: You talkin bout the MA Bergeron whose offensive prowess scored the series-winning goal for Tampa last night? (I think he owed Roli that one.)

    And given Mac's specific enforcer role combined with his 3:32 avg. icetime/game, can we say that he replaced much of anything?

    MacIntyre filled a void. With anti-matter.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I predict the Bolts will get smoked in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals if VAN-NAS holds up the next round too much.

    The long layoff between the Ducks and Canes was deadly for 36 year old Roli 5 years ago, and you've gotta think it'll be even less friendly to the 41 year old version.

    All we remember about that game is MAB taking him out, but the truth is Roli was stinking out the joint long before that. Remember him dropping a rebound right on Brind'Amour's stick to give the Canes a pulse, then coming up very small on the Justin Williams SH break that first gave them the lead?

    I think he would have bounced back, but you could tell he'd lost that zone he'd been in all spring.

    I'll always remember a couple of guys from the next table at the bar heading outside to smoke up at 3-0, then coming back in at 3-3 and not being able to wrap their minds around what had happened.

    ReplyDelete
  42. If the Bolts can keep their mighty powerplay humming, Roli won't have much to worry about. Holy crap is it good.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anyone catch the Team Canada vs. Switzerland game? I missed it.. but who the hell is Leonardo Genoni (the Swiss goalie)? Looks like he kept the Swiss in the game facing 61 total shots.

    As for Nilsson... The advanced math liked him some... but I agree with LT that he was a cherry picker and upgraded by Omark. The Nilsson vs. Cogliano or Omara argument doesn't go very far based on position.

    No question that Strudwick, JFJ, and Smac were either one of a sideshow (Smac like the cheerleaders) or just plain boat anchors to ensure a lottery pick...

    ReplyDelete
  44. In consideration of Hartikainen & Omark's progress, and assuming Jones is signed to a reasonable contract, does JFJ get an offer? He's still RFA. Two way, at best?

    Other RFAs that require decisions:

    Cogliano
    Reddox
    Smid
    Chorney
    Peckham
    Stortini
    OMarra
    Belle

    Do we keep them all?

    Cogliano, Smid, Peckham probably get contracts for sure. Reddox has been a good warrior, has mastered the A, and can provide depth so he likely gets another 2 way. OMarra has the size and can do things at the lower level, so I would bet he gets renewed. The rest I am not so sure.

    ReplyDelete
  45. We probably don't keep Belle, since we traded him at the deadline. That's often a tell about whether a guy fits into a team's long-term plans.

    ReplyDelete