Back then, you didn't get a lot of television coverage on the draft, the radio would tell you who went number one and the guys Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto had taken with their first picks but after that you had to wait for the July Hockey News.
Why? Well the NHL was in a war with the WHA over players, so conducted the draft by phone (which took forever) and tried to sign players before the list was released. Crazy stuff. Here's an example of the kind of story you'd find in your local newspaper.
Eventually enough information would be made available, but I was always curious about why Chipperfield fell so far in that draft. Was it because he'd already told everyone he was going to sign with a WHA club? That would make sense, as Mark Howe didn't go until the middle of round two because of the rival league (where he was playing by 1974).
Eventually Chipperfield did play in the NHL and of course is a part of Edmonton Oiler history (Chipperfield was named captain of the team October 1, 1979). Had the NHL drafted straight up--without the WHA, without the underage eligbility rule that allowed one selection of an underage player per team in the first two rounds--it's still very likely Chipperfield would have been drafted outside the top 10 in 1974.
There was no one who would tell me why in 1974 summer.
--
Fast forward to today and we can track the entry draft extremely well. The attention paid to the sport of hockey, the business and procurement side along with the actual game itself is mind boggling to 1974. Everything is sped up, information is readily available and comes in waves; I'm certain a rabid hockey fan today could produce a better draft list than the California Seals did in 1974.
How did that happen? Al Gore, more leisure time, the news cycle needing more and more to keep its audience, money. In 1974, the Seals GM was Garry Young and their scouting director was Ed Reigle. I knew that because of a man named Jim Proudfoot who should have his own wing of the HHOF but that's for another day. Suffice to say he was the patron saint of nerdy kids on the Canadian prairies.
--
Today, we have so much access to the draft it's ridiculous. We can reasonably assume that the Edmonton Oilers will take Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at number one overall at the draft this year. The top 30 is covered nicely by Bob McKenzie and other sources are out there in the ether and waiting for Mr. Google to take you there.
I am sometimes struck by how fortunate we all are in some ways, and how cursed in others. I know that July 1974 Hockey News must seem unsatisfying based on all of the information available now, but it's also true that something else was lost along the way. Anticipation, mystery and certainly youth. I don't miss 1974 often, but am glad for the memories.
--
Nation Radio hits the air again today. Among the scheduled guests:
- James Mirtle, brilliant writer for the Globe and Mail.
- Derek Zona, whose work at Copper and Blue is a must-read and an education.
- Norm Lacombe, former Oiler and a first round pick in 1983.
- Cam Moon, Red Deer Rebels pbp man and a WHL icon.
- Jim Byers, OKC pbp man and a guy we enjoy talking to about Oiler prospects.
LT, with the Oilers lack of depth at centre (aka the black hole), I'd be interested to see if the Oilers try to acquire two centres in the top 10 of this upcoming draft. It would certainly mitigate the risk of the Nuge turning into Kyle Turris. I guess it would take a miracle for the King's 1st to move up into the top 10 of this draft though.
ReplyDeleteOn that note, what's an optimistic scenario as to what the Oilers could parlay their 2nd pick along with the King's 1st for?
ReplyDeleteJay....i seems everyone at work is convinced that the Oilers will take a defenceman with their next pick, whether it's at #19 or higher...i think i am ok with that, i would be surprised if we took two centers in the 1st round.
ReplyDeleteObviously we are relying on other people's pick's we respect. Because most of us have never seen these players play. It comes down to a sell job for us , who is the better salesman at selling the player.
ReplyDeleteie. Larsson is the next Lidstrom or
RNH is the next Datsyuk
Now if any of these predictions are true, I would trade any player on the Oilers for the next Lidstrom or Datsyuk.
Doug, that's the conventional thoughts here too and there are some good picks if they're still around. Moving up for a dman would also be a good idea if they could get Hamilton or Siemans... I'd still like to see them grab 2 centres, but unlikely I know.
ReplyDeleteDoug:
ReplyDeleteBack in 2009, as I remember it, there were many people suggesting that EDM would a F and a D with their 10th and 40th OV picks, in some order. They took 2 F's, Paajarvi and Lander.
In 2010 it was clear they were getting a forward at one, but I also remember hearing people suggest EDM would look to address their D with their 2-2nd and a 3rd. Not that they'd necessarily take 3D with those picks, but probably take 2. Not only didn't they take 2 D out of those 3 picks, they traded for another 2nd and took 3 F's and 1 D in the 2nd and 3rd rounds - Pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale and D Marincin.
I'm not saying that they'll definitely take 2 F's, but given their recent track record a person could suggest they'll lean towards the forward, all else equal. Now, it's hard to know what you could make of that suggestion - maybe they wanted to take more D but, as it happened, the BPA (in their minds) kept being a F and they didn't hesitate to the F even given the perceived need on D. They could easily have taken a D in place of Lander, or Pitlick, but they didn't.
Jay:
ReplyDelete19OV + 31OV would normally allow you to move up to something like 12-14OV.
Who knows what CAL's mindset is heading into the draft, but it wouldn't shock me if they were willing to make such a move, as they don't have a 2nd, so if they'd rather add some depth, maybe another EDM/CAL deal, 13 for 19+31, could work?
@speeds, thanks!
ReplyDeleteThat would put us in McNeil territory which might not be a bad thing. I've heard good things about him and he brings some size.
speeds....the only problem i have with giving up 19+31 for #13 is i'm not convinced that we would get a player who's all that much better than a player we would get at #19, plus we lose #31, and there will still be some good talent available at #31, but we lose the pick. i would want to see us get into the top 10 if we give up that much.
ReplyDeleteDoug:
ReplyDeleteIf that's the evaluation of the talent available at 13 and 19, then you don't trade up.
I'd be very surprised if the Oilers could get into the top 10 with 19 and 31. Now, if they traded down, something like 1 and 61 in exchange for 3 and 33, maybe they could make a couple moves, 19+33 for 13 and 13+31 for 9ish?
To, ultimately, turn picks 1, 19, 31, and 61 into 3 and 9. Is that something the Oilers would be interested in? Who knows...
Math suggests getting a player at 31 is unlikely.
ReplyDeleteHave no problem moving up. None whatsoever.
I've decided to hop on the Larsson bandwagon.
ReplyDeleteI'd love the Oilers to be aggressive.
ReplyDeleteSomething like 19th + 31+ Cogliano (or 3rd rounder) to move in the top 10.
Montreal had 4 picks in the first round and avoided Chipperfield with all of them. The Seals took him with their second 1st rounder, taking offensive Dman Rick Hampton with their first pick.
ReplyDeleteGillies went 4th overall, a full round (18 picks) before Trottier, who had the best career out of the 74 draftees. Stefan Persson went in the 13th round about 10 away from last pick.
A lot of guys from that draft would play for the Oil at some point: Lumley, Larrivierre, Fogolin, Hicks, Driscoll, Micheletti, Mio...
Ron Chipperfield's nickname? The Magnificent 7.
spOILer: The funny thing about the Islanders that draft is the order they picked their players. They identified Trottier as the best underager in the draft but there was a real danger he would be taken before their 2nd rd pick.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the big man Gillies (coming off a Memorial Cup) was there when they picked (I think 4th overall) so they took a chance.
NYI, Boston, Buffalo, they really were exceptional at the draft table. Habs too, but they missed a lot those years as well. They had so damn many choices.
LT, to this day I can't believe the Habs didn't take Trottier with one of those four 1st rounders. Risebrough was never going to be as good, quality sure, but not the talent Trottier had. IIRC the Montreal media weren't very happy about it and Risebrough's progress got some scrutinizing till the Wickenheiser debacle switched the focus to a new whipping boy.
ReplyDeleteAnother trivia tidbit... Matheson had a column a year or so ago on Chipperfield and his Euro Agency that said Renney was renting his Edmonton house.
ReplyDeleteLT: what did you take from Nelson's comments on last week's show?
ReplyDeleteI didn't get a chance to listen to it so I'm wondering if you'll wade through it for me:)
I would like the Oilers to try moving up in the draft as well but I think the goal should be top 8 or nothing.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's 2 transactions-19 + 31 gets you 13,and then 13 and ? gets you into the top 8-I guess it depends on the cost.If they can't get 2 picks in the top 8 I'd rather stay with the 3 picks we've got in the top 31.
RIP Seve.
Comment of the show today by LT, "Between Gagner and Cogliano, there's a whole lotta mediocrity clogging up the middle in a lot of areas."
ReplyDeleteWhat's the etiquette here, +1, lol?
The Oilers need to trade very high to grab Zibanejad.
ReplyDeleteZibanejad interests me also.
ReplyDeleteI like to say Zibanejad. It's fun.
ReplyDeleteWhat really boggles my mind in all the draft talk is why Ryan Murphy is not at least in the conversation as a possible #1 pick.
ReplyDeleteChoppy: Size + Poor playoff performance.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers could get to the 10 pick. There should be centers like Scheifele, Zibanejad and MacNeil. That would be the gold mine. Then Larsson would be the smart pick.
ReplyDeleteYou know what else struck me about that newspaper article? The 1974 prices for a tune up and Kentucky Fried Chicken.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteChoppy: Size + Poor playoff performance.
ReplyDeleteWell, I haven't actually watched him in the playoffs but his numbers (both points & +/-) look fine to me. His team lost in 7 to an evenly matched team so I can't see where the problems are. Perhaps someone could fill me in on the shortcomings of his playoff performance?
He's listed at 5-11 176 so he should get to 195 at the very least. With his skating ability and skill level, it might not be an issue.
I really hope the Oil are blowing a whole lot of smoke about RNH because if you remove just one month from his resume (March) he looks nothing like a #1 pick. His lack of ES goal scoring apart from that one month is troublesome and it does make a difference - history says it does when you look at the record of elite picks who have turned out well. His poor performance against tough opposition in the playoffs is another knock in my books. Right now RNH pretty much just has a whole lot of "seen him good" and projection which is OK and he might turn out - but the odds are stacked against this pick. So why take that kind of risk?
ReplyDeleteI wish we had something like the following site (NFL-based) for the for statistical analysis of NHL prospects because we are in the stone age given the lack of data from Europe and CHL:
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Player_Tabs/news_qb.htm
Sorry - problems with the link getting chopped off....
ReplyDeletehttp://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News
/Player_Tabs/news_qb.htm
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMore NFL prospect stat analysis from the same guy for those interested in potential NHL applications:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News
/Content/QB_College-QB-Vers1.0_2-17-2011.htm
Asiaoil:
ReplyDeleteCould not agree w/you more about RNH. The ES/PP thing is not going to go away as a concern.
I know that Bruce (and others who've seen him) have made a number of positive comments about his vision and passing. But I just get a Rob Schremp redux every time even though I think he does have more ability.
Would be happy with ANYONE of the others mentioned in the top 5 than RNH.
Comparing RNH to Schremp is laughable in more than a few ways.
ReplyDeleteI talked to Cam Moon today and asked him about PP/EV. His comments (among other things) suggested that RNH played major minutes on the PP (extended minutes) and the club rolled 4 lines at evens.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if there's a chance that the TOI totals would tell us a very different story?
I'd really love to see the TOI totals for the CHL. HUGE item.
LT i was listening but my wife made me turn off the radio right when you were asking MOon about that.
ReplyDeleteHow did Moon respond when you asked about the PP/EV issue and why doesn't RNH score more goals, esp at EV, and does he PK??
For those comparing him to SChremp, that is ridiculous. Schremp didn't even get 80 points in his draft year and that team had Bolland AND Perry on it, Schremp didn't have a monster season until two years after his draft year.
RNH had a monster season as a 17 year old and if he plays in the WHL next season and is healthy I bet he gets 150 points if his teammates don't totally suck.
Luedeke from BOston said MH double teamed RNH whenever he was on the ice, that is why he could only score on the PP.
Brownlee's Larsson article is up now.
ReplyDeletehttp://oilersnation.com/2011/5/7/fthm-part-vi-adam-larsson
Projection: "A one or a two. Probably a two."
Best Case Scenario: "His most potential? Possibly a one."
Concerns: "He's a good skater but he's not a great skater. His offence is only OK at this point."
MacGregor assessment of Couturier was more positive and I would guess he has him ranked higher on his personal list. We'll see what he says about Nugent-Hopkins but it doesn't like Larsson his guy at #1.
With the evaluations so far, I'd wonder what MacGregor thinks about Murphy, Hamilton, or Strome and whether he has any of them ahead of Larsson or Huberdeau with their lukewarm assessments.
Ok - it's probably not the best comparison (Schremp to RNH) because RNH is a better skater and a better passer. I'll grant anyone that.
ReplyDeleteAnd RNH may very well have an NHL career above that of a journeyman for that reason because he can make his linemates better and is not a selfish player.
But the # of points on the PP for both of them was/is a concern and that's my point. And I remember reading on this blog that frequently Schremp was given major PP minutes in juniors (and played many 2 minute shifts which helped skew his numbers).
That's a concern.
Rich, his % of EV to PP points is almost identical to Pat Kane in his draft year.
ReplyDeleteKane had way more EV and total points than RNH, but played on a much better, explosive offensive team with Gagner and Kostistyn on his line and on the PP with him.
Kane was also 18 most of his draft year while RNH was only 17
oilersfan: Moon basically said the club really rode the PP and played the EV on a 4line rotation.
ReplyDeleteHowever, he also said that RNH played with very skilled wingers all of the time.
I'll have an article at ON tomorrow on it (they're paying for the show so they should get the benefit) but the general idea is that he played with talented wingers at EVs (in a 4line rotation) and then had strong PP minutes with the best available talent.
LT
ReplyDeleteSo did he alleviate any of your concerns about the PP:EV issue?
Does this rolling of the four lines answer the question?
Seems to me if you have the top 5 scorer in the WHL on your team, and the best the last two months, you don't roll 4 lines you double shift the crap out of him.
oilersfan:
ReplyDeleteGood comp re: Kane. So hear's a question. Would you think that Kane benfits from playing on a team that has enough skill to compliment him - and tough guys who are willing to protect him?
That would make the argument for RNH that he will make Hall even better. Might also say that he's more of a complimentary player than someone who drives the bus?
I heard the part about the skilled wingers and how many goals they scored. not sure I buy that. As Sather said after he traded BJ Macdonald, "even a fire hydrant would get 30 goals scoring with Gretzky."
ReplyDeleteMaybe these guys are mediocre and they got more points because they played with RNH.
I heard one played on the Czech junior team. Maybe he only made the team because his stats were inflated playing with RNH?
That's what I thought. I think Sean Couturier is the best available CHL talent, but RNH has something that MBS likes a lot.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet a lot that:
1. The Oilers take RNH
2. SC is the better player
Rich
ReplyDeleteHow does it say RNH is complementary? Kane got excessive points because he played on a line with two other guys who made the NHL the very next year, obviously that line had skill up the butt and extra goals were scored. Not to mention that team didn't play the trap or roll four lines, Kane's line played 30 minutes a night.
Also Kane was 7 months older than RNH. Look at RNH's stats the last half of the season, much better. I bet next year it will be even better if he stays inthe W.
RNH is totally driving the bus on his team. If you ompare him to Eberle, JE was the MVP of the WHL as a 19 year old two years after his draft year with the same number of points as RNH this year on a mediocre team offensively.
oilersfan:
ReplyDeleteRe: his current team - it's fair to say he's a difference maker on PP, but I'm not sure he is at ES. In that sense, I should have said I wonder if he's able to drive the bus at ES and not make a sweeping statement.
I hear you re: his age - and the comparison to Kane. My thought there however is that when you look at the situation Kane came into at Chicago, there were more parts around him that helped. I'm not sure Edmonton is there yet.
Does that make more sense?
Joel ward is making the NLers look good for trumpeting his name last thread.
ReplyDeleteKeslers goal celebrations makes me think Ric Flairs ego pales in comparison.
Glad to see Stu expressing concerns about Larsson's offensive [or lack of] game. It appears RNH is their guy, and I for one, am content with that. That said, it's important not to over-interpret these quotes - last year, Brownlee remarked "faint praise" for Hall.
ReplyDeleteAside from skating, I suspect what draws scouts attention to RNH is his upside. His vision and playmaking are first rate - finishers like Hall and Eberle will be burying those chances.
Sean Couturier will probably be a good centre - it's just that RNH Hopkins appears to have better upside. I agree that based on my limited viewings, Red Deer runs 4 lines, and no London Knights treatment here.
To obtain a first line centre with elite upside is something I suspect a team like the Oilers, whom have not had a similar player since Doug Weight, is just too much to pass up on.
If they draft Couturier I won't be too upset. All the arrows appear to be pointing out to RNH however.
We'll see. Can't wait for the draft - the best administrative day in the NHL.
You watch the playoffs and you see players like Kesler and Bieksa are the players you really need to build a championship.
ReplyDeleteEdmonton will need to fill that void also.
You watch the playoffs and you see players like Kesler and Bieksa are the players you really need to build a championship.
ReplyDeleteI'd beg to differ, I think you can win without employing numerous classless assholes.
Joel Ward channeling his inner Fernando. Gotta love it.
To me Kesler is looking like Messier. Not as good though.
ReplyDeleteMuch as I dislike Kesler and Bieksa, they have been very good in this series.
ReplyDeleteThe Sedin's on the other hand have been nothing in this series. Daniel has 2 assists and is -5; Henrik 1G/2A and -3.
Other than breaking someones nose with an elbow, mentioning Kesler in the same breath as Messier is blasphemous.
ReplyDeleteJoel Ward channeling his inner Fernando. Gotta love it.
ReplyDeleteSome of Ward's numbers this year:
CorQC 3/13 Forwards
CorQT 11/13 Forwards
RelCor +4.4 5/13
ZoneStart 39.8 2nd toughest Forward
ZoneFinish 46.8 2nd worst Forward
Zone Start/Finish Differential +12% Best among forwards
6'1 212lbs turns 31 next December.
That's the kind of quality 3RW the Oilers need. Don't want to offer too many years given his age, but he probably has 2-3 more years like this one in him.
Math suggests getting a player at 31 is unlikely.
ReplyDeleteWhat mathare you looking at?
The only potential 40 goal scorer is ranked 58 by Hockey news and mackenzie mid term has him @ 38 and CSB has him #36 North american. If your getting a potential Carter, Marleau, Kesler, Iginla at #35 to 50. the talent is 2nd round deep.
WG
ReplyDeleteIsn't Ward a center?
PJoil: upside? he is a passer. so 2/3 of his posseion will be passes. he project to be a 18 goal scorer so 180 poscession there. so expect another 350 poscessions. 20% of his poscession will die on his stick another, another 30% of the passes will not be completed, so of that 50% that are completed (175)another 25% will not make it to the net. down to 131 possesions enevn at a 155 scoring rate he affects 20 goals on first assists. so probably another 20 2nd assists. at best RNH is a 20G 25 IstA and 25 2nd assist guy.
ReplyDeleteGive me the 40G 40A guy he affects the game more with higher poscession efficiency.
Ricki
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about Shane Prince?
I wonder if NHLE works as well if you take into account size.
I am pretty sure a size modifier would work wonders otherwise Ralph Intranuovo and many other mighty mice would have done much better in the NHL
What math are you looking at?
ReplyDeleteSorry, I meant history suggests at 31, it's a bleak chance you'll get an NHL contributor.
Rickibear: Not sure if serious.
RE: RNH
ReplyDeleteIn a year where GM's and scouts say there isn't a franchise player, why roll the dice on a guy with lots of questions?
He doesn't kill penalties. He isn't great in the corners. He's likely going to need someone to create space for him.
Ill take the guy that will create space on the ice (couterier (not to mention he kills penalties,and kills it in the face off circle)) or the safer potential shutdown d-man.
I'd take Landeskog over him also.
AsiaOil's on the right track. Nearly no one had him #1 until he got hot for the last month and had a great first round. But if you factor that in, you have to factor in the fact he was completely shutdown in the next round. No way I take him at 1. The risk is too high.
Oilersfan,
ReplyDeletePretty sure he's RW.
Both BTN and NHL list him as RW.
Played most with either Legwand and Smithson this year, and both are C's.
Everyone speaks with so much authority on the prospects...
ReplyDeleteI'll be damned if Couturier is Chris Gratton lite, these guys have me convinced via their pure conviction.
They obviously know something I don't. Pay attention Stu!
RE: RNH
ReplyDeleteIn a year where GM's and scouts say there isn't a franchise player, why roll the dice on a guy with lots of questions?
Sean Couturier has questions regarding his skating.
Landeskog is likely to be a 3rd liner in Stu MacGregors estimation due to the lack of natural offense.
Larsson has negligible offense to date.
He doesn't kill penalties. He isn't great in the corners. He's likely going to need someone to create space for him.
You don't necessarily need to be a penalty killer to be a difference maker. That's where the role players earn there money.
RNH is a smart player, and has demonstrated to make plays in tight checking areas. His hockey sense is one of biggest strengths.
Ill take the guy that will create space on the ice (couterier (not to mention he kills penalties,and kills it in the face off circle)) or the safer potential shutdown d-man.
Nothing wrong with taking Couturier, but there is a strong possibility RNH down the road will wind up as a better player.
Scouts like him. 6 out of 10 on Bob McKenzie's list like him at 1st overall. 6 out of 7 independent scouts stated they would take him over Seguin.
It isn't out of the realm of possibility they're on to something
I'd take Landeskog over him also.
You don't take a Brenden Morrow at 1st overall.
You just don't.
Nearly no one had him #1 until he got hot for the last month and had a great first round. .
This isn't really true. He was consistently right up there at the top of the lists.
Everyone speaks with so much authority on the prospects...
ReplyDeleteThat's the fun of it.
Honestly if we could convince FLA to deal us the #3 pick and Gudbranson for something like #1 and the pile of magic beans we got from LA for Penner - I would honestly be a fan of Tambo the chai whallah for a day. All the RNH talk is based on one freak'in month of elite performance and a pile of blue sky - he's way more likely to be Mike Ribeiro or Kyle Turris than Joe Sakic. Anytime I hear anyone compare any kid with a few weeks of great play to Gretzky - it's either complete stupidity or smoke - hopefully the latter in this case for our sake.
ReplyDeleteThat's the fun of it.
ReplyDeleteI'd be cool it it was actually just for fun, but the conviction and disregard that characterizes peoples authority is at best, confusing for logical people that accept what scouts say, at worst, just inflammatory garbage thats repeated adnauseum until december the following year.
Its nice to hear perspectives, but a little bit of humility goes a long way.
''confusing for logical people that accept what scouts say,''
ReplyDeleteWhat? You accuse people of flaming, then you do.
Until you prove that scouts cannot be beaten by maths, i'm sorry but that's as inflammatory as the others. The only man I saw track stats, gave a nod to pure boxcars over the scouts. (JW)
PJO: So many Red Flags. I think Rickibear showed his stats a couple of time. Guys with low goals/points ratio seem to be such gambles. On the other side SC has 90% chance of being a player.
I think it's about time someone does an in depth research to fix all this. Not saying there will be an exact formula, but that's life.
It's like Poker. Even if you get beat with the odds on your side, you gotta tell yourself you did the right thing, and in the end, it will save you.
remember all those stories about kesler changing his attitude?
ReplyDeletethose christ-like celebrations for his last two goals - arms akimbo in glory - should go a long way towards embracing his non-embrace to a new role.
and putting the puck in the net after a whistle shouldn't hurt either.
he's carrying that team and every game the sedins don't show up points towards the fact they won't.
the guy's playing excellent hockey but once again he's being an arsehole about it.
Oh and small anectdote on Joel Ward.
ReplyDeleteI remember talking about Horcoff, that even in his abysmal conditions he sucked.
Well the only other player with such terrible conditions to get positive underlying numbers was Joel Ward.
Until you prove that scouts cannot be beaten by maths, i'm sorry but that's as inflammatory as the others.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that we don't have the "maths" for junior players.
Do we know much about about quality of competition and linemates? TOI? Zone starts?
Maybe RNH is an excellent PK guy but his coach wants to involve other players and save him for offensive situations. Maybe he didn't get as much 5 x 5 time as other prospects because his team rolled 4 lines. Maybe the team played a more defensive system than others? Maybe RNH played 2x more PP time than others?
A smart man would take into account both the partial view "maths" give us here along with the opinions of scouts.
Ducey: Well that's the points. Only one of each is prone to missing components.
ReplyDeleteBut I believe with enough statistical research you can nail down some type of players' success rate.
Big men who've scored +90 points in Junior have proven to be exeptionally successful.
I'd be fine with overpaying Joel Ward on a 2 year deal.
ReplyDelete$5,000,000/2 years?
We have the cap space, why not use it on something like that?
the CFl draft compared to any other draft that's on TV is hilarious.
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Eskimos have made a trade!
...We'll tell you about it after the break.
Hahaha
Haha. Well getting drafted in the CFL if you're in the American program is like kissing your cousin.
ReplyDeleteLT. Contrary to your thoughts there were many wonderful events in 1974, namely my HS graduation which I barely remember and still marvel at it happening at all.
ReplyDeleteBeing that I was a budding teenager in the Woodstock era and it was the "age of experimentation", I am wondering if you can refresh my memory as to WCHL teams having affiliations to the big clubs and players on those teams being obligated to play for same. I distinctly recall the Pats teams of that generation sporting Habs logo's on their jersey shoulders, Moose Jaw the same with Hawks logos. Of course way back then teams like the Estevan Bruins and Weyburn Red Wings existed so their affiliations were pretty obvious.
I clearly recall following the Pats Memorial Cup year and marveling at one Dennis Sobchuk and Ed Staniowski. The Burden and Marit bros before that. It was hilarious how many times Dave Williams would take it on the chin from Gillies and keep coming back for more. Poor old Sobchuk made some rather poor career decisions at the time. $100k per was a lot of money back then I guess.
FTR I would be very wary of pumping McNeil's tires to the extent they have been by some here. I've seen him real good and am not sold whatsoever. I'd far rather take Oleksiak in that area of the draft.
cabbiesmacker: The sponsorship era was phased out over several seasons, with the first universal draft being 1969.
ReplyDeleteSo, using the Pats as the example, Don Saleski (chosen 64th overall by PHI) would have been a Montreal Canadien before the universal draft.
I'm a numbers guy but I don't entirely trust the numbers available at the NHL level let alone CHL. LT is exactly right about the glaring absence of TOI stats, and even if available they would remain open to interpretation. "RNH would score way more at evens if the coach rolled 2½ lines." "Yeah, but would he be able to be as effective over 23 minutes a night as he is at 18?" etc.
ReplyDeleteI can't do comps to other prospects cuz I only saw one of them play live, but I saw that one 11 times and "seen him good" all 11 times, which is worth something in my books. He looked like an elite player in November and he looked like even more of one in March. But it's hardly like he came from nowhere, he was a late cut from the WJC where only one draft-eligible made the team. IMO both at the time and now, cutting him was a mistake, for what that's worth.
Also, any assumption that this guy is no good in the corners is a dead giveaway that the commenter hasn't seen him play. In my books the #1 indicator of successful boardwork is which team comes out in possession of the puck, which is where anticipation and a quick stick can be as or more valuable as crashing and banging.
Scouting, projecting and drafting will be a "seen-him-good" pseudoscience for the foreseeable. The method has huge weaknesses, but relying completely on numbers with gigantic holes in them is foolhardy. I personally would put more trust in the experts than the numbers.
Bruce: But how can you call'em experts? It's a pseudo-science. Everyone in that domain can get a job tomorrow without any prerequisites.
ReplyDeleteThat's an direct opposition with the sense of ''expert''.
As long as scouting is not regulated with proven formulas, I don't think we can use that term. It's like saying someone's an expert in Homeopathy.
FPB: Let's put it this way: I consider Stu MacGregor a helluva lot more expert than me on such matters. Maybe not more expert than you, but defintely more than me.
ReplyDeleteIn fact I sat around a table filled with scouts at one of the pregame meals keeping my mouth shut (almost) the entire time, and you know why? Because they ALL were more expert than me. W-a-y more. These guys watch hundreds of games a year, and many of them drive many tens of thousands of km to do so. They focus on a small number of players each time, and they monitor a huge range of skills, not just of the physical type. It was pretty interesting to hear them compare notes and war stories, knowing full well that much more was being concealed than revealed.
It's not an easy profession, and I for one have a lot of respect for these guys. Your mileage obviously varies.
Bruce: Did you knew if they got actual results or not?
ReplyDeleteEven if you talk expert, you have to get expert results.
Since scouting is not an exact science (Or near it) as of date, there's no other way for qualifying someone as an ''expert'' if they don't get better results than the average. AKA track record.
When someone shows a draft, and then it indicates Boxcars would pump up more players than the ''experts'' well that doesn't sound too accurate to me.
We don't know who does what and etc, So out there, there's probably a good bunch of guys ahead of their stuff. Macgregor seems to be one of them. But as a whole, the performance doesn't seem enough overwhelming, over simple numbers that it would grant that title.
It's like the link AsiaOil presented. Some guy, beat like 90% of the NFL Scouting Teams to rating a future NFL QB. And all these guys are also ''Experts'' who do a lot of milleage to see the players and monitor a huge range of skills.
In short it's this.
ReplyDeletePremise A: Scouting isn't an exact science.
Premise B: The only way to acknowledge expertise is trough results
Premise C: The only data of Boxcars vs Scouts seem to give the nod to boxcars
Hence Premise D: The only scouts we should account for in all this, is those who have proven their efficiency.
Since scouting is not an exact science (Or near it) as of date, there's no other way for qualifying someone as an ''expert'' if they don't get better results than the average. AKA track record.
ReplyDeleteFPB: I'm not a poker fan (at all) so this analogy will be inexact, but let's for argument's sake say we are watching the World Poker Face Championships and there's six people sitting around the table. The winner will definitively be "better than average". The other five will walk away losers. Does that mean that None of them is an expert?
In hockey drafting the winners and losers aren't so clearcut, and it typically takes many years to evaluate. But my starting supposition is that most of the people involved are in fact experts, facing off against other experts. "Better than average" in that scenario means "better than the average expert".
But hey, I could be wrong. Maybe I should take that Level Three coaching certificate I got from EMHA and apply for one of those NHL head coaching jobs. After all, anyone can do it.
I think scouts do a brilliant job. When you factor in things like injury and the huge projection required from 17 to 19 (the old age for draft eligibles) the NHL teams as a group hoover the best players every year by the time I'm two beers into the draft.
ReplyDeleteBy the time 100 picks are in? Tumbling tumblweeds and friends of friends are left on the board.
Scouts are good.
When you are young and know little, you think you know everything.
ReplyDeleteWhen you are old and know much, you know you know nothing.
If we are all around in 20 years, fpb, we can revisit your confidence in you absolutes.
Bruce: Well for sure the final 8 are great. They're the best out of 10000. That's exactly my point. You're saying all 10000 who participated were better experts than Mr. Anyone, or a simple machine who would play the odds. My arguement is, only ask the top 8, or those in the region, not all the 10000.
ReplyDeletePoker is quantifiable. Every hands have odds of winning. Knowing them gives you a great advantage.
So yes it's a false analogy. And no making an appeal to authority at the end doesn't make it better. Sophism.
LT: Then how come they failed to beat boxcars 2 out 3 drafts?
ReplyDeleteWhy is it acceptable now to throw facts out of the window? Why don't we test?
FPB: You're not factoring in things like injury. Let's take the 2001 draft for the Oilers. They took Hemsky and Lynch, and man for a time that looked like it was going to be a really good duo.
ReplyDeleteHowever, injuries have dampened that enthusiasm a decade later. Lynch injured his hand and that's all she wrote so the draft looks like Hemsky and some overagers.
How much do you nick the Oilers for picking Lynch?
I'd be fine with overpaying Joel Ward on a 2 year deal.
ReplyDelete$5,000,000/2 years?
We have the cap space, why not use it on something like that?
You mean the same 32 year old "clutch" journeyman with glowing eyes who put up 29 points in the regular season?
LT: I don't nick them at all. If they drafted guys who tracked like Lynch all the way after, over a long period of time, KP wouldn't have had such a disastrous era.
ReplyDeleteAll I'm saying is why should we trust guys specifically more when as a whole they can't bear the numbers? (And simple ones?) Boxcars also deal with injury.
I think there's guys who've shown over a period of time that they're scouting had something more to it, they should be taken into account, since it's the only way we know to credit or discredit anyone in the domain.
Hence : Do not look as scouting as a whole, but specific scouts who've had good track records.
I think there's a significant amount of irony in using a sample size of 3 to trumpet numbers-only scouting.
ReplyDeletepolator - Ha!
The problem with evaluating scoUting is that it can only be properly assessed off of a longer sample size: 8 to 10 years? there are teams that seem to have good drafts year after year and they rarely have bad drafts.There is luck involved. there are people who take people from off the board(read KLOWE) and that frees up someone who should not be available.
ReplyDeleteI think Stu McGregor has had 2 or 3 good drafts. How good those draft turns out to be will be known in 3 to 5 years.But and it is a big but, Barry Farser had some SPECTACULAR drafts early on and yet nobody here would say he was a great head of scouting.
Course he did retire and just never told anyone officially
Ducey get that Joel Ward only got 29 points (wonder if he outscored some of the guys on our 3rd and 4th lines) but who would you sign as a 3C to kill penalties and win face offs? Big bodies on 3rd and 4th lines that can grind out some tough minutes?
Or do we shoot for 30th overall again and pray we win the draft lottery again?
Well, let's look at that. One of the reasons I believe Kevin Prendergast lost his job was the 2007 entry draft. Buddy had three bullets in the first round and didn't deliver on two of them.
ReplyDeleteNow, a few seasons on, we begin to see that the 2007 entry draft wasn't all that incredible. Had KP had those bullets in another season, then maybe things break differently.
Also, I'd need to know more about your measuring methods. How exactly are these people identifying the talent?
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteNot looking for offense. The kids are getting the cherry minutes and the PP minutes.
I don't expect more than 30 points from Ward, but if he can play some tough minutes 5v5 and kill penalties like he is, and add a bit of grit just for fun, then I'm fine with paying him $2,500,000 a year short-term while we can afford it.
Hell, it's a heckuva a lot better than paying Brule 1.85 to sit on the pressbox.
LT: I don't think we can really know who does what.
ReplyDeleteBut if we say, take Trevor Timmins, and look at his track record, and you get I think the 2nd biggest percentage of NHL players pumped while on his stay, then he's clearly elite.
It basically comes down to that. Takes guys who've outperformed their peers on an extended period of time, relative to their picks, and make a consensus on them, rather than the the scouts as a whole.
FPB: Sophism, eh. Well I guess I got told. English is my First language and I still had to look it up to confirm it really meant what I thought it did.
ReplyDeleteSo, you got me. I'll defer to your vast intellect, vocabulary and life experience, you clearly know much more about this already than I ever will.
Ducey get that Joel Ward only got 29 points (wonder if he outscored some of the guys on our 3rd and 4th lines) but who would you sign as a 3C to kill penalties and win face offs? Big bodies on 3rd and 4th lines that can grind out some tough minutes?
ReplyDeleteI get that Ward is a RW. No problem with bringing in a few big bodied checkers but you don't overpay the flavour of the month based on small sample sizes.
You going to pay him an extra million a year over what he was paid this year because he has beat Luongo a few times? Ever hear of John Druce?
Every draft is treated with optimism (obviously some more than others) and 2007 was no different. This year "smells" like 2007 to me though with the lack of demonstrated high end kids - and the big question for us is - is RNH another Kane? I'm not convinced - sure he could be - but the only evidence on offer is intangibles and upside (he has vision like Gretzky!).
ReplyDeleteThat means this year's #1 has a lot of risk attached to it - more than a lot of years - and I would consider trading down. Like I've said - best case scenario is to try pump RNH and hope FLA would consider doing something to snag him. If we could walk out the door with Gudbranson and Couturier in exchange for #1, #19 and Plante/Teubert (or #31) then that would be a major win IMHO.
Ever hear of John Druce?
ReplyDeleteEver hear of Fernando Pisani? 4 years, $10 MM, and a much more comparable player to Joel Ward.
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteIt's a very small UFA pool this year.
Big wingers that could play in the top 9 with checking ability who aren't ancient?
Ward, Cole, Miettinen, Upshall, Larose, Glencross.
That's about it.
Cole's not coming back here, and I doubt Glencross is either.
It has nothing to do with flavour of the month, and everything to do with that beggers can't be choosers. Last summer we tried to bring in cheap guys with possible upside in Foster and Fraser... that failed horribly. Maybe it works this summer. Maybe it doesn't.
I'd rather just overpay for a proven commodity on a short deal; especially given we have the cap space.
Lets face it; the easiest thing on this roster to fix is the forwards.
How high up does #31 + #19 + Cogliano get you? If Couturier has legitimately fallen out of the top 10 does that get you to him? MacGregor seems to love him, and if all we got out of this draft is RNH and Couturier, well I sure as shit won't be complaining.
The thing I love about RNH is how bloody easy it is to send him back to the WHL.
ReplyDelete#1) Prove you can score 50.
#2) Win the scoring title.
#3) Put on 10 lbs.
#4) Make the WJC.
#5) Win gold at the WJC - In Edmonton no less.
#6) Win a Mem Cup.
#7) Win a Mem Cup MVP.
Lots for him to prove... and while it's not a lot that I think will ultimately matter in the long run, it pushes his contract back another year and pushes his ELC back another year, and that could end up being absolutely massive.
This is a real interesting year for the Oilers because I think all that's set is:
ReplyDeleteHall - Horcoff- Eberle
Paajarvi - X - X
X - X - X
X - X - X
Whitney - X
X - X
Peckham - Petry
X
Dubnyk
Khabibulin
Lots of spaces to fill or decisions to be made. I think Gilbert sticks around, but there's a ton of smoke there. Ditto Gagner and Omark. Hemsky is a complete question mark, though with the injury (and 6 month recovery period that means he likely isn't near 100% until opening night) he's likely here.
I'd absolutely support a lot of short overpays (1-2 years) in order to up the bottom 6 and the top 4.
Joel Ward (5/2), Micheal Handzues (3/1)), JovoCop (4/1), Hannan (6/2), Vandy (1.5/1).
etc.
4 in a row, but just wanted to point out I don't consider Vandy a top 4, but I'd be fine having a 5/6/7 of Petry/Vandy/Peckham, with Vandy being overpaid in there to ensure he sticks around.
ReplyDelete@Asiaoil: 106 points seem pretty tangible to me.
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteWhat I wonder is whether the 2011 is as weak as the 07 draft. In fairness to KP I don't think there was lots of talent left on the table uwhen he selected Plante and Nash unlike the MAP draft year.....lots of talent that year after we picked
There was a reason in 07 that the Oil could get 3 first rounders and it was because other teams thought little of the talent in that draft.
If that is the case I remain with some of the guys that question whether Columbus (Johannesen) LA (Schenn) or Boston (Sequin) would want our #1
Duce
Lots of overpays sitting on our roster. I just think we need to fill some holes with real live NHL players rather either retreads or guys that we HOPE can overperform their history. I would go with Hejda, Greshkov, Upshall and Boyd Gordon.
PS If we want a very good defencemen sign Offer Sheet with Weber, let them match and do the exact same thing next year with Ryan Suter. Nashville can't keep both of them at 5.5m + per. Either one would be superb with Whitney as a top pairing.
Might as well try strategy as opposed to tactics
Ducey,
ReplyDeletePerhaps you missed my post on Ward's numbers this year:
Some of Ward's numbers this year:
CorQC 3/13 Forwards
CorQT 11/13 Forwards
RelCor +4.4 5/13
ZoneStart 39.8 2nd toughest Forward
ZoneFinish 46.8 2nd worst Forward
Zone Start/Finish Differential +12% Best among forwards
He played toughs with the dregs and came out ahead.
Few players in the NHL can boast that.
Its not about his offense. Some players other than goalies get paid to prevent goals.
The Oilers have run power v. Power for years due to Vish and 3.0 trading away anyone who remotely looks like a decent 3rd liner (I.e. Can take on toughs)
I'd would be nice to give Renney the same options Vigneault has. VAN had Maholtra play toughs, Kessler 2nd toughs (Mr. Selke was actually 9/13 CorQC,QC, and RelCor QC on VAN) and Sedin's got uber cherry ice time against 3rds with Zone starts north of 70%.
If the Oilers had an actual 3rd line Renney threw out like Maholtra's line (25% Ozone starts!!), it would help the offensive lines get easier ice.
Bruce - lots of small 106 point guys in junior do nothing in the NHL - we both know that.
ReplyDeletePDO - lots to prove for RNH - that's the problem - he should have ALREADY proven most of that list to be a comfortable #1 pick.
Look I don't hate RNH - kid could turn out great - but fact is that he has proven very little to be considered for the #1 slot. Take March 2011 out of his resume - just one single month - and he is not in the #1 pick conversation at all. All the other red flags also apply - lack of ES goals, unable to rise above tough competition and double teams. Think he won't see that in the NHL and more if he is even modestly effective? Think he will be able to take on the toughs right out of the box like Hall did this year? He's not able to handle the tough in junior right now.
RNH may address all of these shortcoming and uncertainties in the future - but it's probably more likely that he does not - and that's too high a level of uncertainty for a #1 pick. It's not like I like anyone else for the slot really - and that's why trading down to get more proven player like Gudbranson and a top 5 pick with less upside and risk like Larssen or Coutourier if they fall makes sense to me.
106 points seem pretty tangible to me.
ReplyDeleteI second that, especially with those numbers being put up in the WHL.
On the matter of playoff performance, I would like to know, who among the top forwards (RNH, Couturier, Huberdeau, Strome, Landeskog) can really be said to have an understanding playoffs?
Huberdeau is often said to be lighting up the playoffs but I think his numbers are extremely deceiving. He racked up the majority of his points in the first round against a complete joke of a team (win% of .301 and goals diff of -122 for crying out loud). Since then he's been having a tougher and tougher time scoring against better teams. He's currently in the 4th & final playoff round in the Q and he will end up never to have played a team as tough as Medicine Hat. Med Hat trumps every playoff team that Huderdeau has faced or is facing in terms of Win%, Goals Diff, GAA.
Keep this in mind next time you hear someone showering accolades on Huberdeau's playoff performance.
ChoppyStride: While he surely dropped down from an incredible 1st round pace, Huberdeau still managed 8 goals in his 9 round 2 and 3 games.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand how anyone can believe this team is going to "fill the holes" with UFA's. The good UFA's aren't stupid enough to want to play for a 30th place team. What I do believe is the fact that Tambellini's stated for the record he's determined to grow the franchise from within = AHL development of players, brought up as they mature to the point of becoming credible NHL players.
ReplyDeleteThe plain, horrible fact is: Oilers are going to stink next season. Again.
As for the draft, give me a bottle of bourbon and 45 minutes later I could draft every bit as well as the idiot who picked Jesse Niinnimaki.
PS: Re the Barry Fraser drafts: My belief is that without Gretzky and Sather(who was once an incredible coach), there wouldn't have been any HOF careers here, and no cups. The other players developed under an incredible system laid out by Sather, and led on the ice by Gretzky.
ChoppyStride: While he surely dropped down from an incredible 1st round pace, Huberdeau still managed 8 goals in his 9 round 2 and 3 games.
ReplyDeleteIn round 2, his level of opp is comparable to the Edm Oil Kings. In 5 GP, he had 9 pts and +6. That's pretty much comparable to RNH's performance vs EDM.
In round 3, his level of opp is somewhere between Edm and MedHat. In 4 GP, he had 4 pts and -2
In round 4, his level of opp (Gatineau) is the toughest but still below MedHat. In 2 GP so far, he had 1 pt and +1
FYI, Gatineau is also the team that shut down Couturier. In 6 GP, he had 3 pts and -6.
And remember, a graduating junior as good as Brayden Schenn (along his high powered Sask team) also got pulverized in the 2nd round (vs a team that was probably a bit better than MedHat). In 4 GP, had 1 pt and -6.
In light that, I'm not sure how one can really slam RNH's playoffs performance relative his peers.
choppy - his peer group is also weak and it's not like anyone is saying player x or y is light years better than RNH this year - it's a weak draft and those happen - just sucks that we have #1 in a year with no elite talent - and all the blue sky in the world will not make RNH more likely to be Joe Sakic than Mike Ribiero or Doug Weight. I would be heavily in favor of trading down if I had any confidence that the mgmt team would not screw it up.
ReplyDeletePast and now projections (70 games CHL forwards):
ReplyDelete(Over full schedule)
2010-2011 :
Couturier 115 Points
Huberdeau 110 Points
RNH 107 Points
2009-2010 :
Hall 130 Points
Seguin 117 Points
2008-2009:
Tavares 134 Points
Duchene 97 Points
2008-2009:
Stamkos 120 Points
2007-2008:
Kane 175 Points
Gagner 155 Points
2006-2007
Staal 70 Points
Brassard 140 Points
2005-2006
Crosby 190 Points
Ryan 112 Points
2004-2005
Ladd 75 Points
Picard 80 Points
2003-2004
Staal 103 Points
Horton 88 Points
2002-2003
Nash 93 Points
Upshall 95 Points
I think they're have been weaker N1 selections statistically, and in pretty strong drafts. It's not that alarming. There's just a boatload of options instead of 1 clear cut.
Lakers swept in 4 straight. Good times.
ReplyDeleteThe good UFA's aren't stupid enough to want to play for a 30th place team.
ReplyDeleteSnow signed some decent NHL'ers as UFAs, including Rolli who he turned into a good young D (Wisehart) on a 29th place NYI team (also only place considered less desirable than EDM)
Yz signed some decent UFA's to a 26th (24th?) Place TBY team.
Its a job and if EDM is offering good term or $ good players will come. Very good ones looking to win won't (I.e. Maholtra), but there are lots of Actual NHLers who can help fill the black hole that is the Oiler's "checking line"
The Oilers top 6 actually did ok considering the age of most of them and the 30th place finish, but had a disaster in the bottom 6.
And an absolute hockey abomination as a #1G.
Did not say he would sign those guys. Said he should sign those guys.
ReplyDeleteProblem with draft picks and players 1-2-3 years into their career is they sometimes plateau in places below what you projected them to be. So waiting for 7 guys from draft/AHL to pan out may be riskier than many here think.
If you were Boyd Gordon would you want to play in a place they would give you every difficult face off in your own end and 3-4 minutes a night on Pk on team that will get better each and every year?
A lot of players factor in the weather and the town.
ReplyDeleteNot for nothing the Yotes' dissed Winnipeg.
Plus whatever Washington offers for Gordon just add $500 to 700K/ per year to the offer
ReplyDelete@AsiaOil: I'm pretty sure ISS werent Including RNH's great March results when they declared him the top prospect on February 17.
ReplyDeleteDrew Miller in Detroit is another interesting UFA.Made 650k this year.
ReplyDelete@fbv:Not sure if you know but Huberdeau rode a 21% shooting average this year.Not sure that is sustainable long term.
If I were Boyd Gordon I'd go where they gave me the most for the longest. NHL careers are short and most players have a high need to maximize earnings.
ReplyDeleteA select few get to pick where they want to play since either:
A). They are already financially secure
B) are good enough that all teams bid for their services.
Hockey: While I suspect it's not, the QJMHL has very high SH% overall vs the OHL and WHL.
ReplyDeleteBut then again, so isn't RNH 52% PP/ES ratio.
@fbv..I can't argue which league has better sh% because I have only seen the Q post it.I have never seen it for the OHL or WHL.
ReplyDeleteAs for RNH it's actually closer to 55%.The Rebel's were a defence first team that relied on the powerplay to win games.I can't knock the kid for producing in the situation he was put in.
Hockey: That just doesn't translate to the NHL. Exept if you're 6''3 + apparently.
ReplyDeleteHere are shooting% of the three CHL leagues for the 2010-11 regular season:
ReplyDeleteWHL: 10.03%
OHL: 10.44%
QMJHL: 11.16%
I suspect that the WHL is also the one with the lowest shooting% going back at least several seasons.
I've made this point many times and I'll make it again: it's tougher to score in the WHL than the other two leagues.
Choppy: Well assuming RNH scored at league wide clip, he shot 130 times. THat would add 1,3 goals playing in the QJMHL.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFPV: Well assuming RNH scored at league wide clip, he shot 130 times. THat would add 1,3 goals playing in the QJMHL.
ReplyDeleteThat's incorrect.
RNH had 31 goals. If he scored at a league wide clip, that would mean he had 309 shots.
But anyhoo, I think a more pertinent projection is this: assuming Red Deer had scored at a league wide clip and with RNH earning the same proportion of points on Red Deer goals, RNH would have earned about 12 more points playing in the QMJHL.
There must be something to Couturier other than his skating. If he can produce like he has while being slower off the mark, wouldn't that normally mean he actually has the greater upside? But also the greatest risk because he still has to overcome that obstacle?
ReplyDeleteI'd think if he was better than RNH in most other areas, scouts would be salivating over Couturier. The rankings and the actual pickings love size.
It can't just be the fact he's a poorer skater. Most scouts evidently must prefer RNH's remaining skillset even considering SC's size advantage. Let's say size and skating differences cancel each other out... RNH must be able to repeat better plays than SC to earn his spot atop the rankings.
The scouts really have no favorites here. They would prefer to get the best player too.
Didn't Boyd Gordon make 700k last year? I bet you he would be happy to make 1.5 per over 3 to sign here.
ReplyDeleteWow, lots of love for Ward. No problem with the concept of bringing in a checker, but I think a 32 year old is not a guy you want to overpay and sign for multiple years.
ReplyDeleteGood discussion though.
Choppy,
Where do you get those shooting percentages from? In looking at the Q website I see SC had 36 goals on 138 SOG and 223 S. I can only assume SOG = Shots on goal and S= shots. (I don't know why anyone would track shots that are not on net).
Assuming that these are accurate, SC would have either scored on 26% or 16% of his shots. Huberdeau would have scored on 26.5% or 21%.
Anyway, I think those numbers are pretty suspect. Are there any reliable stats that show the shot percentages of SC or RNH?
spOILer:
ReplyDeleteObviously I don't know with any certainty what it is the scouts see, or don't see, in Couturier in comparison to RNH. I'm sure there are a many more than these 2 possibilities, but here goes:
(1) Couturier is boring and effective, while RNH shows flashy skills while being effective. Maybe scouts shouldn't be awarding "style points" (and i'm not saying they are, it's just a possible explanation) but I think that can be tough to avoid and even if you're trying to, who knows how that's working on a a subconscious level.
(2)Another possible explanation could be some background or off ice stuff that we may or may not ever hear detailed. Not necessarily that Couturier is a bad seed, but possibly just that they are viewed roughly equally as talents but scouts think RNH has a better drive to improve and succeed?
Gordon would be happy, Tambi crucified for that contract. He can be had for a less than 1.5 X 3 I would guess.
ReplyDelete@Ducey
ReplyDeleteSC was 16%,Hub 21%.I couldn't find where the W posted individual %.Here is a link for all info on the Q.Everything is there,just keep scrolling!!
http://chlcluster.leaguestat.com/download.php?client_code=lhjmq&file_path=daily-report/daily-report-2011-03-21.html
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteThere was the interview ban issue and there maybe some resultant questions about ability to handle the pressure/spotlight.
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteTambellini has not suffered any consequences for a series of bad contracts on players who could not fill the role they were signed to fill: Khabby, Fraser, Foster. So I would not worry unduly about someone doing a very good job at what he would be signed to do.
Will Gordon score 15 goals? Nope. Will he score 35 pts? nope. Will we win more defensive zone face offs? Absolutely. PK better? yup
Or we can save the extra 300-400K/ year and continue to win 42% of our faceoffs.
TOJ...
ReplyDeleteI think you're missing my point. I think Tambi could hire him for less than that. 1.25 X 2 should do it and would still represent an overpay. Hell, I would be starting the bidding at 900 x 1 and see what I'm out-bidding first.
Brownlee's article over at ON today pretty much confirms that RNH is the Oilers' man.
ReplyDeleteSC was 16%,Hub 21%.I couldn't find where the W posted individual %.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
If accurate, this is a big concern for me about Huberdeau. Scoring on 1/5th of one's shots is unsustainable at any level.
Brownlee's article on ON today pretty much confirms Brownlee thinks RNH is MBS' favorite.
ReplyDeleteBrownlee managed to stretch some thin material into 5 articles, when there was scarcely enough for 1. Nothing from MBS' comments though really indicate the best pick... he ranked RNH and SC identically and gave Larsson close to top marks for a Dman. Nor does Brownlee give us much insight into why he thinks RNH is MBS' top prospect.
spoiler: He didn't rate Nugent-Hopkins and Couturier identically. His comment on their upside was more favorable for RNH. And unless he has an unexpected player at #1, I think it's safe to assume that he's MacGregor's preference for the top pick
ReplyDeleteYah, the difference was upside as "very good #1" v. "good #1" and that is a real difference. And Larsson might be a #1 but probably a #2 and no adjectives like good or very good #1. I don't think you can draw conclusions but RNH seemed to get the highest praise.
ReplyDeleteOn the whole Stu's quotes were refreshing in that they didn't have the absurd expectations that one sometimes hears when talking about prospects and that are often used to come out of Oil front office.
Apologies for the English.
ReplyDeleteDoes it concern anyone that RNH scored 16 of his 31 goals (51%) in 7 games this year??
ReplyDeleteIt concerns the hell out of me.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYes, there was the addition of "very" to RNH's upside, agreed. "Very good" potential for RNH. "Good" for SC, I see, now that I look it up.
ReplyDeleteBut let's keep in mind even Brownlee did not point that out as the reason why he thinks the Oilers take RNH #1. Instead he refers to his "gut", and "ears". I take the latter to mean the scuttlebutt he has heard elsewhere as he has referred to it in the past (IIRC).
That said, I think there really is some pretty good scuttlebutt out there that says the Oil think RNH is a better fit for Hall than SC.
As for the size issue, I believe MBS is on record somewhere stating that RNH's older brother and his dad have some thickness to them, so they think there's a good chance he will add size and strength as he matures.
Danny: just the other day I was wondering if I could "dislike" you any more than I already do and now I know that I can:)
ReplyDeleteJesus, man, I loved the Expos and the Oilers and the Oilers/Titans have only been to one super bowl so you won't you fucking allow me anything;)?
Ducey: I'm not saying I would give Ward whatever he wants but I've liked that guy for awhile now. Guys that can do well in top nine and make fuckall bank are fellows I'll always gravitate towards because of all the grunt work MGM plus Reasoner did back when we had a hard job finding skill.
We've got skill now - albeit young - but now it's time to go back and beat the bushes and find the other three or four forwards we need.
That's why I'm interested in Lander and Hamilton because they could be two thirds of that third line we need; maybe Pitlick as well.
In the meantime I'd like to have some vets there and earlier on I pimped Higgins and Reasoner and Dvorak as guys to target.
Get two of those guys on two year contracts and let Lander and Hamilton play all this year in OKC and the worry about what to do when the vets when the kids are Actually pushing them.
Gogliano, lol, agreed, those MBS comments were most un-Pendergrast-like.
ReplyDeleteSquid is my captcha and I have't even mentioned Goldman-Sachs... although we are parsing MBS' comments like they were made by Ben Bernanke.
Unless the bulk of his goals came against subpar teams I don't see a problem.
ReplyDeleteGogliano:
ReplyDeleteHis hat Tricks are against :
Calgary (22/22), Swift Current (21/22), Moose Jaw (9/22),
Then his 2 goals games:
Edmonton (15/22), Kootenay (6/22), Try-City (7/22) and Swift Current (21/22).
Average position of multi-goal games' opponents: 14/22.
Goals scored against the top 6 teams in the league: 4 (3 against Kootenay and 1 against Saskatoon)
Thanks FPB - that's just ugly - sure hope all this RNH love coming from the Oilers is a whole lot of smoke trying to pry the best deal out of a trade of the #1 slot. Get a nice young asset and pick Larsson or Coutourier a few slots later - best case scenario.
ReplyDeleteWhy couldn't Hockey Canada and Hockey Sweden do us a favour and put RNH, SC and Larsson on their respective WC teams?
ReplyDeleteIt's essentially a meaningless tournament anyway, and it would have given us so much more tasty small sample size comps to chew on.
Damn them for being professional.
That's good stuff FPB (on who RNH has scored goals against). Agree w/Asiaoil (hope they are over-selling on RNH) but nothing seems to indicate that this is the case.
ReplyDeleteIf they pick him, he will wind up on a line w/Hall so that he has someone who can finish. But other than Hall and Eberle, this is a team that really lacks for finishers, and d-men, and goalies, and PK and...
ugh another eaten comment and I forgot to copy.
ReplyDeletea) I think the goal stuff is mildly troubling but still think he is the clearest candidate for #1.
b) I'm probably with Asiaoil on this in that there seems to be a lack of a top flight #1 talent in this draft so if you can get someone to trade for the #1 as if there is I think you take it. I also worry about expectations for the #1 since I don't they'll have Hall's combination of talent + determination.
c) FBV if you have the assist stuff broken down like that it'd be cool to see.
Oh and if the Oilers trade down and they take Landeskog we'll know MBS likes to blow smoke from here on out. I wouldn't complain if the other piece we got back looked useful.
ReplyDeleteGogs:
ReplyDeleteAssists against top 6 (Excluding Red Deer itself) teams:
24 assists in 21 games agains (Medicine Hat, Kootenay, Saskatoon, Kelowna, Spokane and Portland).
So in total he has 28 points in 21 games against the top 6.
Brownlee's article on ON today pretty much confirms Brownlee thinks RNH is MBS' favorite.
ReplyDeleteAnd last year his gut was certain they were going to take Seguin.
You'd think MBS was Alan Greenspan the way everyone is parsing through his words.
I doubt the Oil have decided anything and won't until the combine and interviews.
There is still time to change their minds fpb :-)
Is there any data out there on guys who score multiples/game versus guys who score one a whole bunch of times?
ReplyDeleteI'd think there's an argument to be made to take a guy who could score seven hat-tricks over a guy who would score one goal twenty-one times. Extreme example I know, but I'm guessing you understand what I'm driving at.
I hope the Oil don't know yet who they're taking, since all this poker-faced mystery stuff is pretty silly if they really are set on who they want.
ReplyDeleteIf they know for sure, trading down doesn't make any sense. No way the potential return for dropping 1-2 spots would be good enough in a clustered draft like this to justify leaving open even the slightest chance of not getting their guy.
So if they do know, why not make like Pat Williams after the 1992 NBA draft lottery and bust out a Shaquille O'Neal Magic jersey for all to see? You've gotta think that kind of confidence in the pick would impress the kid and start building up his loyalty right away.
Then again, Shaq did eventually bolt to LA so he could win rings and inflate Kobe's title total...
2009-10 Taylor Hall
ReplyDeleteTop 6 (excl Windsor):
Barrie, Ottawa, Mississauga, London, Kitchener, Plymouth
19gp 11-20-31
RNH's 21gp 4-24-28 doesn't seem to be setting alarm bells by comparison.
@LMFH...If you go to any of the league websites you can get a game by game breakdown for any junior player.For example here is Strome.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/gameByGame/id/360/ls_season/42
Sorry link didn't work.This will take you to OHL homepage then find a player and there is a drop down for game by game.Easiest way is thru the stats drop down.All the top players are there.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/
@#LMFH,
ReplyDeleteSo you would prefer a streaky player like Torres who scores a hat trick and then does nothing for the next 3 or 4 games than a guy who would score 3 goals over a 3 or 4 game span - one goal a game ?
Just asking ? I know you might say but look the guy got a hat trick, look at the potential, but I think slow and steady wins the race myself.
Of course if you have a guy like Gretzky who scores in bunches and does it consistently, well he's the one you want.
Let's say Hall represent an "average" #1 pick - not a generational talent like Crosby or a stiff like Patrik Stefan
ReplyDeleteRNH is certainly a notch or two below Hall
That mean's RNH is a mediocre #1 and history tells us that trading down in this case might make sense. Again not hating the kid - just being practical in a case where actually keeping the #1 may not be the best option if someone is willing to give us something nice along with a top 5 pick.
Asiaoil: How many times have the Oilers come out well after trading up or down in the draft?
ReplyDeleteWas it M.A. Pouliot over Parise? Or was it acquiring Riley Nash that fills you with such confidence in Kevin Lowe's company?
Or, are you planning to be there to help them make sure everything works out just right?
Pick Larsson.
Hunter: What if we can swap AND get Larsson.
ReplyDeletefpb ; I'd still be pissed, lol.
ReplyDeleteOn principle, you just don't trade away a 1st overall pick.
Was it M.A. Pouliot over Parise?
ReplyDeleteIn many ways the Nuge fits the profile of Z. Parise.
He's worked out okay as a #1 C.
24 assists in 21 games agains (Medicine Hat, Kootenay, Saskatoon, Kelowna, Spokane and Portland).
ReplyDeleteFPB: Not quite sure why you're including Kelowna (87 points) and excluding Tri-City (92), although it's a convenient omission to your agenda given RNH scored 2-1-3 in his one game against Tri-City and 1point in 2 games vs. Kelowna.
That notwithstanding, just using your numbers RNH scored 28 points in 21 games (1.33 P/G) against teams that had a combined GAA of 2.89, and 78 points in 48 games (1.63 P/G) against teams that had a combined GAA of 3.66. He should be expected to score at a rate about 27% higher against the latter group since they allowed 27% more goals, and by your numbers his P/G rate was (only) about 22% higher.
Doesn't seem that out of line to me.
FPB: Think of it this way:
ReplyDeleteOilers pick first, and the guy doesn't pan out quite as good as say, one of the other players.
That's called bad luck, and could happen to anyone.
Now: Oilers trade away their first pick, who goes on the have a HOF career, while the guy they pick doesn't quite pan out - that's called stupidity.
Doesn't the Parise for Pouliot/Jacques trade teach us anything?
This is a 30th place organisation, as well as a 30th place team.
To any of you who feel comfortable having these morons wheeling and dealing with the likes of New Jersey, well, I have a nice bridge for sale.
Bruce: Look at the standings, Kelowna is 2nd seeded.
ReplyDeleteI'd say nasty things about it but i'l just phrase it this way:
I've put the numbers up completly for purposes of use for other, with no opinion attached to it, if you want to bitch on it, then do better. Seriously fuck this.
@FPB: Sorry if I seem snarky, your opinions have seemed pretty slanted to this point and it was you accusing me of sophism a few screens above IIRC. Anyway, let's move on.
ReplyDeleteI would be interested to see similar results of other top prospects against top opposition in their respective leagues.
@Bruce...SC got 24 of his points in 10 games against the two worst teams in Drummondville's division.25% of his total.
ReplyDeleteNote:I've put the numbers up completly for purposes of use for other, with no opinion attached to it.
Danny: just the other day I was wondering if I could "dislike" you any less and now I know that I can:)
ReplyDeleteJesus, man, I loved the Expos and the Oilers and the Oilers/Titans have only been to one super bowl so you won't you fucking allow me anything;)?
Ducey: I'm not saying I would give Ward whatever he wants but I've liked that guy for awhile now. Guys that can do well in top nine and make fuckall are guys I'll always gravitate towards because of all the grunt work MGM plus Reasoner did back when we had a hard job finding skill.
We've got skill now - albeit young - but now it's time to go back and beat the bushes and find the other three or four forwards we need.
That's why I'm interested in Lander and Hamilton because they could be two thirds of that third line we need.
In the meantime I'd like to have some vets there and earlier on I pimped Higgins and Reasoner and Dvorak as guys to target.
Get two of those guys on two year contracts and let Lander and Hamilton play all this year in OKC and the worry about what to do when the vets when the kids are Actually pushing them.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteReg and Hockeyguy - What I'm wondering is if more wins result from having players who score in bunches vs. players who score consistently but not at a higher rate in the games they score. I'm guessing that depending on the stat method used the answer could be either, but I'm wondering if it's even been considered.
ReplyDelete