All three of the forwards have seen plenty of minutes and all three have had ebbs and flows--expected for rookies during the long NHL season.
Based on both boxcars and advanced stats, it appears to be a two horse race with a third also in photo. The third member of the trio is the one finishing strongest, so we should keep it in mind as we look to the future.
Boxcars
- Hall 65gp, 22-20-42 -9
- Eberle 67gp, 18-24-42 -11
- Pääjärvi 78gp, 15-18-33 -12
- Hall 15:26, 2:43, 1 second
- Eberle 14:24, 2:34, 41 seconds
- Pääjärvi 13:29, 1:50, 1 second
- Hall 186, 11.8%
- Eberle 153, 11.8%
- Pääjärvi 176, 8.5%
- Hall .10.3 (1st among Oiler forwards)
- Eberle 9.0 (2nd among Oiler forwards)
- Pääjärvi 2.7 (7th among Oiler forwards)
- Hall 52 % (4th easiest among Oiler forwards)
- Pääjärvi 51.7% (5th easies amng Oiler forwards)
- Eberle 48.8% (10th easiest--3rd toughest among Oiler forwards)
- Hall 1.78
- Eberle 1.78
- Pääjärvi 1.40
I'd choose Hall by a hair over Eberle, but honestly this is one of those times when a person could argue that there should be two winners. Gagner's rel Corsi as a rookie was .6, Cogliano's -8.9 same season. I'm not an expert when it comes to advanced stats, but these kids can play.
Quality of line mates impacts this immensely though I'd think.
ReplyDeleteIt seemed for a good part of the first half that Hall and Eberle got Horcoff or some other wily vet and the best defencemen behind them.
MPS on the other hand was shuffled around in a constant game of musical chairs, and often times found himself riding shotgun to some less than stellar players.
One could make the argument that he would have 'found the range' quicker and have better counting numbers now if he'd been playing with Horcoff and Hall/Eberle for the first part of the season.
the crazy part is that we have 4 legitimate young wingers with skill, and add Harsky to the mix and you have another top 9 winger that complements the kids. Add Hemsky to the mix, and our top 9 is set for a long time. Hall brings some grit and he'll only get stronger and tougher, Harsky is a beast,and MPS has some size so at least he will be able to handle the physical contact.
ReplyDeleteAdd Hamilton with his size, and maybe re sign Jones and you have bottom 6'rs with size and enough skill to out score.
Crazy amount of talent at wing for this team.
lw:
Hall
MPS
Jones
Harsky
Hamilton
RW:
Hemsky
Eberle
Omark
Brule
Reddox
Pitlik
Our smurfs are on the right side it seems. shift Jones to RW, and you have a pretty solid wing set up next year with size and skill. Still crazy young, so maybe once again we need to add a solid two way vet with size at centre.
I am very impressed with MPS shots on goal. Also I think that 8.5 is kind of low shooting percentage and with that improving, his points/60 will improve too. Furthermore, am not sure of the on ice sh% with him, but considering Omark has a poor sh%as well, mps might be having some bad luck out there
ReplyDeleteSome "context"from the performance of this year's rookie crop:
ReplyDelete5V5 P/60 Forwards:
Skinner - 2.44
Grabner - 2.37
Couture - 2.18
Marchand - 2.20
Bickell - 2.03
Ennis - 1.90
Omark - 1.87
Stepan - 1.85
Eberle - 1.78
Hall - 1.78
Paajarvi - 1.40
A mile to go before we sleep.
And, Eberle is doing it with smoke and mirrors right now. Horcoff gone, Hall gone. Yet he seems to be keeping his head above water. A healthy line-up would be nice!
ReplyDeleteAside: Omark on the PP is fantastic. He adds some flexibility to the line up offensively. I'd argue that he's the best on the half-wall that this team has to offer.
Who can kill penalties? That's important too...right?
Here is some "context for you DSF.What do you think playing with Staal at centre would do for Eberle or Hall?Or playing with Thorton or Pavelski?
ReplyDeleteDSF
ReplyDeleteGrabner and Skinner (I have not checked the rest) are 5th and 10th respectively in Quality of Competition among forwards on their teams.
Hall and Eberle are 2nd and third. They are playing the toughs.
It makes a big difference who you get your 5x5 P/60 against.
MPS is the clear winner of this injured mess. He has been given loads more ice time to the point where it may have sped up his maturation process by a whole year. When this boy turns into a man he will be a load. He can do it all. I predict he will score the winning goal on June 15, 2015 and clinch the Stanley Cup...as long as KLowe is no longer employed in the organization.
ReplyDeleteHate that it lost the kid his shot at the Calder, but there's a decent chance we might look back at Hall's injury as a pretty good thing for the team in the long run.
ReplyDeleteGotta like what MPS has been doing with the bigger push it's allowed him to get.
I can't see the case for Hall over Eberle - same number of points in the same number of minutes, Eberle playing in more difficult circumstances (against slightly easier competition, but look at those zone start numbers)...that's no knock against Hall, because as between blue chip prospects the 20 year old *should* be better than the 18 year old, but I think Eberle's our Calder nominee.
ReplyDeleteI actually find DSF's numbers a little sobering, though Ducey's point is well-taken. As well, because I'm too lazy to look, how old are those guys? I know that this is Skinner's 18 year old season, but how about the rest?
Other thought: you know how we all look at Kurtis Foster's results last year and write them off as being in the southeast division? Well, is the southeast division worse than the northwest these days? We've got the President's Trophy winners and then four non-playoff teams, including the two worst (by points) in the league (granted, one of those is the team for which Foster plays, which doesn't make it any easier on him).
I guess even if the division proper is weaker, a team's non-division games are still primarily against conference rivals, which might make the southeast easier. But the northwest is plenty bad these days.
DSF: I appreciate those numbers, but the quality of teams and teammates are quite different for most of those rookies you listed when compared to the Oilers' rookies.
ReplyDeleteHard not to like what all of the kids have done this year - and I agree w/where DBO is headed.
ReplyDeleteNext year's top 9 could include the likes of:
Hall/MPS/Jones - LW
Hemsky/Eberle/Omark - RW
Gagner/Horcoff/Cogs - C
Question is do you bring Cogs back? Am not sure if Renney's pumping his value for a trade or if he really buys into what he's done, but his FO % is brutal.
A 4th line w/Harsky/Reddox and pick you C - VDV/Fraser/Brule/FA gives you some jam.
A 13th forward w/crust (an upgrade on Smac/JFJ) is necessary. Let Pitlick, Lander (if signed) get experience in OKC.
With a prudent FA signing for a true 3C, a vet defender and more playing time for DD versus Khabi this team might be worth watching next season.
hytor: how you say hello to a tor.
A 13th forward w/crust (an upgrade on Smac/JFJ) is necessary.
ReplyDeleteWe've got those. Problem is that they're playing on our second line.
Rich: the Cogs conundrum is a big issue I see this off season. I hope they move him and allow some centres with more size. Funny how with Vandevelde our faceoff's have improved. And shockingly, whether the correlation is true or not, our PK and PP percentages have jumped since he was called up. One big thing in his favour is his age. 24, while a rookie in NHL terms, is infinitely more mature then a 19 yr old rookie, and for this reason I expect him with the big club if they don't sign a vet. Add a 21 yr old Lander, and our centre position is bigger, more defensively responsible and we have 3 tough minute centres in Horcoff, VV and Lander.
ReplyDeleteGagner
Horcoff
Lander
Vande Velde
is an improvement over our current smallish crop of C's. Decent size, two way play, faceoff ability and solid skills mean we would be more competitive. Lander can play AHL to start, but I expect him up by mid season. I would love to see him with MPS and Omark. All swede all th time.
Does Pitlick make the jump to the AHL next year? Or is he relegated to Medicine Hat again? My other question is if he moves to centre next season (with either team)? Anyone have any thoughts on Mr. Pitlick?
ReplyDelete@ducey and hockeyguy
ReplyDeleteOf course, it makes a difference but quality of competition stats are among the most suspect of the bunch.
Hockeyguy...Skinner does not play with Staal.
I think the best you can argue on the Oiler rookies behalf is that they play on a shitty team and would be better if that were not the case. No doubt that's true but it's also an indication of how far the team has to go before those rookie number are even up to average.
The real sobering number is Pajaarvi's.
I've been tracking his P/60 and his shooting% all season and they haven't changed much at all.
He's been getting a few more points lately as a result of increased ice time but his rate of production is about the same and his shooting % is still in the same range.
The Dreger Report....
ReplyDeleteQ: When Jordan Eberle went down after the hit by Raffi Torres, why wasn't he taken off the ice and into the quiet room to be assessed? Is it up to him or the team?
Luke, Edmonton
A: The onus is on the team and its training staff, however on-ice officials can suggest a player be taken to the "quiet room" if he is exhibiting any symptoms. In Eberle's case, Edmonton's training staff said Eberle was alert and didn't show any signs of trauma, other than a small bruise near his left temple.
The NHL and all teams are very sensitive to new protocol rules, so Eberle was clearly symptom free even though he received a stiff elbow to the head from Vancouver's Raffi Torres.
helaydi, read my clever uses of word verificatin captchas.
So we are back to needs, and this team has plenty, but most glaringly on the blueline and down the middle.
ReplyDeleteHaving secured, at worst, the 2nd overall pick is it generally agreed that the debate has been reduced to Ryan Nunget-Hopkins at center or Adam Larsson on d?
I know that we are looking at apples and oranges here (given the different positions, different leagues - nay, continents - that the kids play in, different development times for their respective positions, etc) but since these opportunities ought not to come around all the time (please gods, spare us another basement finish next year) what are we looking at chosing between?
I've heard Larsson's comparables ranging from Hedman to Lidstrom. What about RNH?
Secondly, what is the game plan to move LA's pick up the list to grab a second piece? Is it clear that we are more likely to get a shot at a center or d-man of note with that second pick and does the relative availablitliy of one position over the other influence our decision with the first pick?
sublett: when you rent out the old WEM rides
DBO: I haven't seen the jump in our PK% but that could be more to the personnel than anything.
ReplyDeleteWould think that if you ran the #'s winning more FO's would help in that regard (I know Vancouver is near the top in both - not sure how that correlates to the rest of the teams in the top 10 of PK). I do like Cogs on the wing with his speed, but not in the middle.
Psyche: You're right, Pitlik doesn't turn 20 until Nov - so I guess he's not AHL eligible. Lander is but LT commented last week on his show he may stay another year in Sweden.
I'd keep Pitlick in the WHL again. Unlike other guys who might have played 4 years in the WHL, this was his first. He had to make some adjustments and missed a fair number of games.
ReplyDeleteDBO you have hit in the real question with this team. Which of the smurphs do you keep?
Eberle for sure. But then you have Gagner, Omark, and Cogs. I could live with one on each of the three top lines, but as soon as you have two of them on the same line you wind up with matchup issues.
The problem becomes worse if they go for the Nuge.
The decision doesn't have to be this summer because they are still short of other options.
But I would prefer it was Cogs or Gagner sent away. I like both, but if you can trade Gagner for Bogosian or another blue chipper, I think you have to do it. If you can't, then trade Cogs for what you can get.
And I know DET has small players, blah, blah, blah. But they are the exception to the Rule. If the Oilers are trying to follow the exception they are more likely to fail.
I'm not a Lowe hater, but after reading Brownlee's article involving the situation behind what happened between him and Bryan Murray around the comrie/perry deal,I sure as hell have a different picture of him.
ReplyDeleteso much arrogance. It's easy to see why the organization is in the shape it is if that is the kind of Shit that Lowe pulls.
Is it June yet???
secks: It's so fun!
The Wild, again? Really? Ugh.
ReplyDeleteI will consider the year a success if they can hold the unstoppable PM-Freaking-Bouchard to zero points tonight.
Tons of promise for next year. I agree that the injuries are a blessing in disguise. The development of this team should accelerate rapidly and soon.
ReplyDeleteWould love to trade Cogs+ for Brian Boyle. Likely a pipe dream but just saying.
4 more days till we know if we get the decision of RNH or Larsson. I find myself unable to turn down a great shutdown D in Larsson.
Gotta wonder if Koivu is sick of Minny and Minny will blow up the team and rebuild. They don't seem to be going anywhere and remind me of the Oilers 2 years ago.
Zona over at Copper and Blue is arguing that Couturier should be the #1 pick.
ReplyDeleteCouture's most common linemates:
ReplyDelete18.95% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY
16.05% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 78 FERRIERO,BENN
9.45% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
5.45% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 20 WELLWOOD,KYLE
5.41% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN - 19 THORNTON,JOE
4.28% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK
2.98% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY
2.94% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 10 MAYERS,JAMAL
2.73% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
2.55% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK
2.49% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 19 THORNTON,JOE
2.43% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
2.24% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 55 EAGER,BEN - 20 WELLWOOD,KYLE
2.06% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 55 EAGER,BEN
Skinner's most common linemates:
29.87% EV 59 LAROSE,CHAD - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
17.41% EV 26 COLE,ERIK - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
15.87% EV 36 JOKINEN,JUSSI - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
8.23% EV 26 COLE,ERIK - 53 SKINNER,JEFF - 12 STAAL,ERIC
2.76% EV 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF - 12 STAAL,ERIC
2.52% EV 59 LAROSE,CHAD - 53 SKINNER,JEFF - 12 STAAL,ERIC
2.34% EV 26 COLE,ERIK - 36 JOKINEN,JUSSI - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
Grabner's:
33.45% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE
8.12% EV 12 BAILEY,JOSH - 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS
6.45% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 58 JOENSUU,JESSE - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS
3.96% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 7 HUNTER,TRENT - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS
3.72% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 25 NIEDERREITER,NINO - 93 WEIGHT,DOUG
2.99% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE
2.89% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 26 MOULSON,MATT - 91 TAVARES,JOHN
2.21% EV 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS
2.16% EV 12 BAILEY,JOSH - 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE
Using this metric only, I'd say Skinner, Grabner, Couture in order of worst to best linemates.
Skinner was 2010 draft, Grabner 2006, Couture 2007.
Again Skinner is showing extremely well.
He's like a 2010 version of Sakic. Good for CAR for stepping out and grabbing him.
I'm a believer that how a player matures physically and mentally from age 18-20 causes more improvement as a player than where he is playing.
Skinner is the real deal.
Thanks Ducey. I had thought the group-think had moved past SC but apparently not all. Don't see a strong call for his name here though.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy, I agree that Skinner was a real steal and am wondering if the consensus here is that Stome is this year's Skinner - higher value than likely draft slot?
WG, Skinner also went to Gary Robert's boot camp in the Summer I believe.
ReplyDeleteI remember reading an article where Roberts said he was very impressed by Skinner's dedication to training, and how Skinner was pretty much physically ready for the NHL at the start of the season and he wouldn't be surprised if he broke camp with the Hurricanes.
This isn't to take away from Skinner, but maybe to explain why Hall and Eberle maybe struggled a bit more. I'd think that Staal gets the opposition's full attention, leaving Skinner's line to mop up the soft parade?
I like each of Hope very much. With 2/4 of them smurfs there is no room at the Inn for Cogliano, Brule or any other undersized forwards moving forward. I do not think of Reddox as a smurf because of how he plays. Until we get better replacenments, there is definitely a spot for Gagner moving forward. Expect if we found a good sized shooting wing he would love playing with Omark
ReplyDeleteI would leave Pitlick in the Dub
A little more context...Eberle looks much better here:
ReplyDelete5V4 P/60 Forwards
Marchand - 5.16
Eberle 4.01
Couture - 3.95
Ennis - 3.52
Bickell - 3.46
Skinner - 3.39
Hall - 3.27
Paajarvi - 3.11
Stepan - 2.74
Omark - 2.47
Grabner - 1.95 (virtually zero PP time)
The player that stands out both 5V5 and 5v4 is Brad Marchand....
21G 20A 41P +25 playing third line minutes.
22 year old 3rd round draft choice of the Bruins.
Carolina doesnt know how do develop players. Why on earth would they play him in the NHL as an 18 year old when you can push his ELC back a year.
ReplyDelete(sarcasm)
Carolina doesnt know how do develop players. Why on earth would they play him in the NHL as an 18 year old when you can push his ELC back a year.
ReplyDeleteThose are two completely different subjects.
(lack of sarcasm)
Damn, DSF's right, these guys are busts. If only there was some real elite talent like Shirokov.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteit's also an indication of how far the team has to go before those rookie number are even up to average
ReplyDelete@DSF: On average, NHL teams have 1 rookie in the top 30. By your numbers, Oilers have 3 in the top 10. Yet somehow they're way below average? Sometimes your insistence in putting a negative spin on Everything makes me think you're not so much a troll as an electron.
I've been tracking his P/60 and his shooting% all season and they haven't changed much at all.
Well percentages generally do change pretty slowly once you've established a large base sample. To see real trends it's sometimes better to divide the season into segments. Here's one quick-and-dirty split which shows progress in Paajarvi's game in recent weeks:
First 66 games: 128 shots, 10 goals, 1.94 S/G, 0.15 G/G, 7.8 Sh%
Last 12 games: 48 shots, 5 goals, 4.0 S/G, 0.42 G/G, 10.4 Sh%
His TOI has gone up by (crudely) ~20%, from roughly 15 to 18 minutes per game (too lazy to calculate exactly). Presumably his PP TOI has received a disproportionate share of that bump.
Even factoring in the increased opportunity, those splits don't meet my definition of "not changing much at all". Even as his overall numbers have only moved a relatively small amount (2.26 S/G, 0.19 G/G, and 8.5 Sh% don't appear that much different from the numbers after 66 games), they have in fact improved significantly across the board just in the last month.
Or so this positron sees it. :)
SS: If you wanna make an argument that Carolina was better off keeping Skinner in the OHL, Id love to hear it.
ReplyDeleteThis team - and it's future - is a lot of fun to discuss...just as long as you don't have to watch them on the ice.
ReplyDeletethere's so much to speculate about now because we don't know what their plans are.
I still say we should bring in a Reasoner-Handzus type to help out 10-89 down the middle but the Oilers have invested so much time in 13 that it won't shock me if he's there again next year.
4 as a pivot would make a lot of sense and especially if you think that 23 could turn over to the LW to be the #2 guy behind 91 or that a kid like Hamilton has the potential chops for that role.
If you put 4 at pivot then you take Larsson or Landeskog.
as it is right now I expect that Larsson's the guy selected and then LA's 1st round pick Plus is used to try and grab a Strome or a McNeil to bolster the pivot corps.
Pitlick hasn't even played centre in the dub so no point penciling him in as anything but a winger. Lander's a guy who could make the jump but a half year of seasoning in the A wouldn't go astray either.
Can someone take a look at the last 60 games for the PK unit and see what we can find? which guys did well in that area? anecdotally it looked like 28 was doing a good job but maybe that was because he seemed to generate the most SH chances; 85 looked like he did a good job there and that's why I'd let him stay as the 4th line RW.
I'll take a shot with a vet signing that can win faceoffs in the 3 hole, Lander in OKC and 13 as the 4th pivot because he perhaps did some good work on the PK.
91-10-83
4-89-14
28-Reasoner-23
56-13-85
54 as the 13th forward. Hamilton as a guy who might make an immediate jump because of his size and grit and PK ability.
Larsson-6-77-5-58-49-43
Khabby-DD
Reasoner-85-13-28-10-91 as the PKers. I'd like to go back to using six PKers and you could roll with a 10-91 third paring with the 89 line being the line to get the first shift after the penalty expires.
I'm not sure what you do with the PP. 6 is gonna be on the point and 4-14 should be there but what about the rest? if 23 or 89 could play the point it would help.
Some guys have it all.
ReplyDeleteBrad Marchant is both talented And handsome.
is it just me or does anyone else think the Oilers should have sent down at least 23 or 58 for this weekend's games for the Barons?
ReplyDeleteI know we only have 18 healthy skaters but could we take it down to 16 or 17 in order to send one or both guys down? are big clubs allowed to do that?
I've been all about this idea since I've read what the Sens were doing with all their kids.
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteVery odd splits.
It would seem the 66-12 split was designed to she the best possible light on the subject.
Since there are 80 games in the bank, why not try 20-20-20-20.
A different result methinks a far more illuminating since a 12 game span could involve a lot more "puck luck"
And, your assertion that the Oilers have 3 in the top 10 is certainly true but you also need to bear in mind that they have been given a lot of opportunity that they wouldn't have received elsewhere.
If you want to argue the Oilers have the best cumulative rookie performances by the pound, you're on to something, but that in no way diminishes the performances of other rookies.
And, before you launch any more name calling, please note I said the low comparative scoring rates for the Oilers' rookies were an indication of how far the "team" needed to go.
With better line mates, I don't doubt they would be better.
I realize I'm stating the obvious, here, but I think the real context we need to worry about isn't who is playing with whom, it is age. Hall and Skinner both look, on the basis of this year, like phenomenal talents. Comparing them to '06 drafts is pointless.
ReplyDeleteI mean, sometimes an older player will have a breakout year - I'm expecting Shirokov to have a huge year next year - but let's compare apples to apples.
OKC: I definitely think at least one of the players who played a lot on the farm should have been sent down. Would be nice to see them make it into the playoffs.
DSF: Of course I chose to split where his stats actually seemed to naturally split. So are streaks recorded everywhere. I tend to pay more attention to them when they are current streaks that show no sign of abating - that's not a streak, that's a trend. However, I'll grant you that one man's trend is another man's cherry picking.
ReplyDeletePaajarvi has stepped it up since the Penner trade and Hall injury, there is no doubt. He's gone from 3LW to 1LW. But it's not like he suddenly got to play on a line with Horcoff and Hemsky, now is it?
Sorry about the "name calling", it was meant as a joke, and I pointed its anti-particle at myself just to make that clear. While I agree with you that there's lots of room for negativity surrounding the Oil, there are some very positive things and they all focus on the rooks. Who if not great are at the least, pretty darn good. The heavens know our squad needed an injection of prettydarngoodness. More generally, some of us Oiler fans subsist on HOPE so are more likely to research and challenge negative remarks in their direction.
Dennis: What are the Sens doing with their kids?
ReplyDeleteDennis: I agree with pretty much everything you said in your post. How would you feel about maybe using LA's pick as part of a deal for a guy like Sammy Pahlsson if Tambellini can't move into the top 10?
ReplyDeleteJust a quick note on Pitlick. He was drafted out of the NCAA and cleverly signed in Med Hat after the NHL draft. This means he is not subject to CHL/AHL eligibility requirements, and he can play in the AHL any time, regardless of age.
ReplyDeleteHey Dennis, I don't have time to look up the last 60 games but I can look up the last 1 game and tell you your man 85 played 2:09 SH TOI and was on for 3 PPGA.
ReplyDeleteBut I agree we should keep him around, for his scoring touch if nothing else.
No wait ...
they were yo-yoing them in order to help their farm team secure a playoff spot.
ReplyDeleteand it worked.
I don't think I'd move that LA pick even if we were closer and Pahlsson was closer to what he used to be.
ReplyDeleteBruce: you are usually so long-winded that I didn't think you'd nail someone on a small sample size;)
Dennis: Small sample sizes are my trademark. What have you done for me lately?
ReplyDeletePS: Sample sizes don't get any smaller than Reddox's goal total this year.
ReplyDeleteSimulate the draft lottery! Hah..geez...
ReplyDeleteSIMULATE!
Damn...Simulated twice and Columbus and Florida both got #1 ahead of us.
Bruce, I loved that electron line. As the voice of blind optimism around here, I reserve the right to steal it.
ReplyDeleteHaving Reddox on the team is like moving into a trailer. You move up as soon as you can find something better.
Wonder if Eberle can beat the dreaded curse of 42. The hockey Gods sent noted head hunter Torres after him last game, with little result. I fear they may drop the score clock on him tonight.
Can we get this guy to call Oiler games?
ReplyDelete@ Bruce.
ReplyDelete"Paajarvi has stepped it up since the Penner trade and Hall injury, there is no doubt. He's gone from 3LW to 1LW. But it's not like he suddenly got to play on a line with Horcoff and Hemsky, now is it?
Playing a line with Horcoff and Hemsky would be fatal.
Paajarvi would never get the puck and, if he did, Horcoff couldn't finish.
Call it a "fogita".
Danny, he can't be worse than Weekes. I wonder if he had a heart attack afterwards?
ReplyDeleteHe seemed awfully concerned with someone being in someone else's house as well.
Ribs for some reason the first thing I saw in your post was a big blue STIMULATE, after I realized what it actually was, my excitement quickly died =).
I'm more a a neutron myself, absolutely no charge and pretty much inert by comparison to my fellow particles.
SS: If you wanna make an argument that Carolina was better off keeping Skinner in the OHL, Id love to hear it.
ReplyDeleteYou've heard it, over and over again. Not much point to repeating it, when it comes down to an argument over whether a staying in the OHL hampers a player's development, and both sides are going on blind suspicion at some point.
It just pisses me off when people act, as you did, as though a player doing well in the NHL somehow proves that pushing the ELC forward would have been a mistake, when in fact it has no probative value on that point at all.
SS: If you wanna make an argument that Carolina was better off keeping Skinner in the OHL, Id love to hear it.
ReplyDeleteWhy would you do that? Carolina is in the hunt for a playoff spot this year, and they have exactly one (1) forward younger than 22.
LittleFury said...
ReplyDelete"Damn, DSF's right, these guys are busts. If only there was some real elite talent like Shirokov."
You mean two-time AHL All Star Sergei Shirokov who led the Mantioba Moose to a tie for the division championship?
He'd be on the Oiler's roster in a heartbeat if only they had one :)
uni - I think you were looking for this button...STIMULATE!
ReplyDeleteSkinner with his 31st.
ReplyDeleteShould have spent the season in the OHL :)
Should have spent the season in the OHL :)
ReplyDeleteCobbecot.
Ondrus (House, Kytnar)
ReplyDeletePitlick is a '91 birthdate. So he'd be an overager in the WHL next year and good prospects never get sent back for their overage year. It would be quite strange if he isn't in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteOutshooting SA 12-3
ReplyDeletehttp://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1008495
You could get old Pahlsson or a comparable for very little. They'll try and use that LA pick to move up but the two guys who I think could sweeten that - 83 and 89 - are both coming off injuries so I can't see them moving up.
ReplyDeleteAlthough we will here about how hard they tried, guaranteed. :)
I think we'll see more of the same next year, guaranteed. Kids galore.
Hawks blowing the doors off Detroit, up 3 8 minutes in.
Two different teams but Sharp is back and Bolland is skating again. Don't know if the Canucks really want them in the first round.
McDonald (Moran, Giroux)
ReplyDelete@ BD
ReplyDeleteWord out here on the coast (from players coaches and media) is that the Hawks are exactly what the Canucks want.
Now or never.
saw this on faceoff.com this evening where Howson said they aren't looking for another rebuild so he'd be looking to move his top 10 pick for something that could help now.
ReplyDeletesounds like a match made in Hemsky considering all the history between the two orgs.
DSF - yep have heard the same and if I were a betting man I would definitely put money on the Canucks. Chicago won it all because they were deep. Its the Canucks who are deep now while the Hawks await their new wave of kids to arrive.
ReplyDeleteI think the Canucks are the team to beat. I also think that you'd probably want the Preds, Kings or Yotes in the first round before Chicago.
If they make it ;)
Oilers and Wild or Blades and Ice? Hmmm.
ReplyDeleteBlack Dog said...
ReplyDeleteDSF - yep have heard the same and if I were a betting man I would definitely put money on the Canucks. Chicago won it all because they were deep. Its the Canucks who are deep now while the Hawks await their new wave of kids to arrive.
I think the Canucks are the team to beat. I also think that you'd probably want the Preds, Kings or Yotes in the first round before Chicago.
If they make it ;)
The scariest team in the WC right now is Anaheim.
There's your dark horse.
Barons outshooting SA 16-7.
ReplyDeleteStill 2-1 Baron
DSF - agreed, Ducks as well
ReplyDeleteWide open out west this year I believe but the Canucks are a step above. If they stay healthy and get through the first round I think they get to the SCF.
McDonald (Giroux, Moran)
ReplyDeleteMcDonald with 2.
ReplyDelete3-1 Barons.
ANyone got a link??
ReplyDeleteFirst game all year the center Ice package doesn't get where I live
I don't know if that will be all that helpful.
ReplyDeleteambluma - what Staubitz almost needed.
That Montgomery kid is +10 in 14 games for OKC.
ReplyDeleteMost entertaining Minny Oil game ever?
ReplyDeleteThis is gonna get ugly.
ReplyDeleteitsaleaf - here you go http://enjellybeans.blogspot.com/2011/04/channel-8.html
ReplyDeleteThis is old timey hockey for sure. No fights in the stands so far, though.
ReplyDeleteNo kidding eh? Montgomery is playing with Plante apparently.
ReplyDeleteThis guy coaching OKC is doing a hell of a job.
Well, this is fun.
ReplyDeleteSad #33 is gone so Clutterbuck wont get the same treatment as Staubitz.
The Canucks are definitely the team to beat, but with Malhotra and Edler on the shelf, they're a little closer to the pack though.
ReplyDeleteYou never know, all it takes is one Roloson glove steal, and one Toskala clear into Samsonov and a series will turn on you. Chicago and Anaheim are the ones I'd want nothing to do with right now. Corey freaking Perry...$#!& floats I guess.
So I'm working on a paper (seriously) and am accordingly not listening to or watching the game, but I just checked the boxscore. Am I reading it correctly that MacIntyre received a non-coincidental fighting major at 8:17? If so, I'm calling up my mother and citing this as authority that it doesn't take two to fight.
ReplyDeleteThe Canucks are definitely the team to beat, but with Malhotra and Edler on the shelf, they're a little closer to the pack though.
ReplyDeleteEdler is back and the Canucks will be wearing #27 on their helmets.
First time all season the Canucks have had their top 6 defensemen in the lineup at the same time.
Clutterbuck only got a 10, so he will be back. More fights to come.
ReplyDeleteMaybe two teams with nothing to play for makes awesome hockey. Scrap the playoffs bettman.
Did 33 jump the boards or was he supposed to be on?
ReplyDeleteDid 33 jump the boards or was he supposed to be on?
ReplyDeleteHe came on and went straight for Staubitz - gooned him bad. Renney might face some discipline in addition to SMac.
Minny has a beauty powerplay
ReplyDeleteThey could always institute a tournament for the bottom feeders for the 1st overall pick like I believe the KHL does.
ReplyDeleteThat would pretty much spell the beginning of the end for Tambellini and Lowe though.
turtored: pretty much what you've been if you follow the Oilers.
33 was on. Magnus went off. Likely called off.
ReplyDeleteSteve: the one fighting penalty has happened once before in edm that i recall. In that same game a C was tossed from a centre ice faceoff. Weird night!
Burns is due to be an UFA after next season yeah?
ReplyDeleteOnly way Smac could get on, leave the bench
ReplyDeleteNice pass by Bouchard. Hadn't realized he wasn't injured at the moment.
ReplyDeleteWith PMB in, isn't that a guaranteed loss for the Oilers?
McDonald (Giroux, Moran)
ReplyDelete3 on the night, 39th overall.
All we're missing is Jim Carr announcing this game......
ReplyDeleteThe fans are standing up to them. The peanut vendors are standing up to them, and I could get down there, I'd be standing up to them!
Bar Qu - dont you mean gooned him right? That's the first time i've seen him do his supposed job. Staubitz tried to go high on Magnus, so #33 didnt ask questions.
ReplyDeleteBurns is a lot like Spaz. I think he has a bit more likelihood to become a stud than Spaz had, but nonetheless janne was one of my fav Oilers of all time.
ReplyDeleteEDM might interest a guy like Burns by the time 2013 rolls around.
Seriously Colin McDonald.
ReplyDeleteMadman on the frozen water.
You would think he could do a reasonable job as a fourth line winger next season.
Steve: the one fighting penalty has happened once before in edm that i recall
ReplyDeleteI actually (dimly) recall the same - I remember that the radio announcers seemed to think that it was unprecedented, though I have no idea whether that was actually the case. Sometime in the last decade, I'm pretty sure, though now that I'm out of my mid-twenties years are beginning to blur together.
Anyway, good for Renney for actually acting like he sees a role for a goon. Even if I think he's wrong, I value intellectual coherence.
Considering the Minny PP scored and the rest of the team likely feels no more worried about hitting an Oiler than they did before, I am not sure it was a good gooning. Mind you, I would be hard pressed to think of a good way to use SMac beyond his public relations abilities.
ReplyDeletedrogga
You would think he could do a reasonable job as a fourth line winger next season.
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to think that, at minimum, he's earned a two-way contract from some team. Is his AHL pact up at the end of the year (not that that's determinative of whether he'll sign a two year deal, but makes it simpler)?
Many have been clamouring for 33 to do just what he did....start throwing haymakers and ask questions later.
ReplyDelete"...he left something behind there...".
ReplyDeleteIt's sad when I find the SportsNet broadcast commentators to be this far superior to the gongshow tandem offered by the CBC (Lee & Weekes).
And ten misconducts at once, in the first bloody period? I should turn this on - no paper could be this important.
ReplyDelete*Four misconducts of ten minutes each.
ReplyDeleteI could have sworn that I saw MacDonald sitting at a crossroads with his hockey stick last Summer.
ReplyDelete3-0 Tigers over Red Deer. Tyler Bunz back in action for MH and playing well tonight.
ReplyDeleteWell, ain't it a small world, spiritually speaking. Pete and Delmar just been baptized and saved. I guess I'm the only one that remains unaffiliated.
ReplyDeleteLT and others updating the Barons score, were you watching online or just checking in with the website?
ReplyDeleteSkinner with a 3 point night.
ReplyDeleteThe Cream rises.
What 33 did, he should have done it to Koivu. Staubitz is a stiff and he ran one of our talented kids and the only way to cure that is to take out of their skilled guys.
ReplyDeleteThe other night after torres hit 14, someone should have bided their time and punched one of the sedins in the mouth. then when it was over tell them it was raffi's fault.
Dennis - re-sign Dave Brown?
ReplyDeleteIt was just shocking to see, as Steve noted, some Coherence.
Jake: I'm just checking online. 6-2 OKC now.
ReplyDeletePM Bouchard seems like a reasonable expectation for Gagners career path unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteSo...there's one Charlestown Chief and 3 Ogie's in attendance. Im not kidding. Section 134.
ReplyDeleteLT, ok I thought I heard Gregor earlier in week saying something about being able to watch the Barons online.
ReplyDeleteJake: You can. AHL site has an option where you can subscribe to games.
ReplyDeleteMcDonald with his 4th of the night, 40th overall. He's now 1 behind Nigel Dawes who leads the league.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFlamers fans rationalise away yet another "post 2004" season.
ReplyDeleteDennis
ReplyDeleteWhen you dress a rosier full of smurfs be vey careful suggesting anyone goon Koivu because the next 3 shifts we will see some no talent bum sequentially beat the crap out of Eberle, Omark and whichever one of the other smurfs are next played.
To quote Sean Connery "never bring a knife to a gun fight"
LT, subscribe, like pay?? lol
ReplyDeleteBoy I like Omark on the PP. Keeps moving.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised no team thought they could use Nigel Dawes on their roster. He's always seemed like a useful player, much more so than the Boogards of the world, but the Rangers would rather let Dawes go and overpay Boogieman I suppose.
ReplyDeleteHartikainen all but has a job next year on the 'big' club. He'd have to blow a tire or something in camp to get sent down.
Verification word: evens
Yeah. I understand it's a pretty murky feed, too. Like the one the Oilers saw of Mikhnov 2000.
ReplyDeleteSmid should never go past centre ice.
ReplyDeleteJeebus.
Barons need one more win in the next two games, right?
ReplyDeleteGD wise tomorrow at Texas looks like a better shot than Sunday at Houston.
I'd love to see the Barons make it just to see how the kids going back down would make out.
To quote Sean Connery "never bring a knife to a gun fight"
ReplyDeleteIn the alternative, "a smurf for a smurf leaves us all...um...smurfless."
Umm.. "just like a wop to bring a knife to a gunfight."
ReplyDeleteAre you confusing Sean Connery with Mel Gibson?
ReplyDeletePM Bouchard seems like a reasonable expectation for Gagners career path unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteSonofabeast. Sign him to a lifelong contract then. Heaven forbid we have to play against him some day.
Steve
ReplyDeleteYou bring a smile to my face ....usually!! but Sweet Jesus man, exams are like tomorrow. Pass your final courses! Seriously!
I fear your next email to Alex Pringle will start "Alex I have good news and bad news to report. Know your firm was concerned with added cost of new articling student. good news, I will not start till 2012! Bad news, I have decided to continue to closely follow the UNB hockey team for 1 more year"
Best regards from Lowetide's east coast reporter!
Sean Connery in Untouchables........... No do not go check it out till exams are over
PS Sean Connery is heavy drinking wildly misogynistic bald headed man who loves women! Mel Gibson is a short,draft dodging wildly racist full headed hair douche bag that hits women
ReplyDeleteLove Bravehear! Just less so after Mel talks
but Sweet Jesus man, exams are like tomorrow. Pass your final courses! Seriously!
ReplyDeleteMy only two exams are next Friday and the following Monday, and neither will be a problem (believe it or not, I'm actually a pretty decent student, if a little inclined towards procrastination). The problem is these papers, but they're not due until the 21st, and I'm pretty sure that with the proper motivation* I could write something C minus-worthy in a single night.
Sean Connery in Untouchables........... No do not go check it out till exams are over
Already did, I'm afraid - before posting my Gibson crack. I was just trying to make some kind of joke, and it was between that and trying something offensive surrounding the phrase "don't bring a cod to a gun fight".
(And I'm not sure if you were just using him as an example or if you were somehow under a mistaken impression, but I'm not articling with Pringle - he didn't hire anybody this year, I believe because one of this year's QB clerks will be completing her articles there.)
*Abject terror
Is it just me or does Omark get better when someone leans on him. I can't get over the strength he has on his skates for a smaller guy. He's a strong little bugger.
ReplyDeleteAll I want for Christmas next year is a Hall jersey, Eberle jersey, Omark jersey, Paajarvi jersey, Hartikainen jersey... am I missing anyone. I love these kids.
Am I the only guy that didn't like Braveheart? Now the original Lethal Weapon I liked.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, it was funny having Connery with that voice, a Scotsman playing an Irishman who hates the I-talians.
If Omark can ever figure out a way to teach whatever it is he does to keep his balance and protect the puck like that down low, then the Oilers need to pay him whatever he wants to train Cogs, Gagner, and Eberle.
ReplyDeleteOmark must be incredibly frustrating to play against. I can see him drawing a lot of penalties over the course of a series.
Articles to Pringle was a compliment to you! Peter Royal gave spectacular articles but, for obvious reason, that is not not realistic anymore.
ReplyDeleteFinish the string out and come home and learn your craft. It really is a most rewarding and worthy career
I did not say what I labored at!
Hartikainen. Love it.
ReplyDeletePMBouchar'd again
ReplyDeletePMB is the new Brian Rolston.
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteHartikainen. Love it.
There is a hockey player!
Yep, as soon as I saw PMB on the ice I knew they were toasted.
ReplyDeleteI hoped he`d be good, but I didn`t expect this level of play for Hartikainen this quickly. He`s got a ways to go, and you never know, but I can see the Holmstrom comps now.
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3626#comment-318421
ReplyDeleteSo Eberle hits 43. Special player.
ReplyDeleteSo Eberle hits 43. Special player.
ReplyDeleteBecause he managed to not to do it while losing a limb?
verre, verre guud!
Some thoughts:
ReplyDelete- 23 should be drawing a lot of penalties Right Now but for some reason he gets no respect from the officials. if that continues early on next year then it's a trend unlikely to be broken.
- 54 has an odd way of finishing when he wins draws. when I think of Malholtra and Stoll in particular those guys get really low and that's how it winds up but 54 takes the draw and then it's almost like he stands straight up and starts to battle. Interesting to watch and just by the volume of draws he's taking and the PK time I'd say he's ahead of 42 going into next year's camp.
- an off-game by 91
- I love 56 but he has a hard time getting going once he stops. still, that's a nitpick and I think he already makes next year's club and if he improves his skating then he's golden.
finally, I wish buck martinez would stop talking through his fucking nose; between that and it taking pat tabler 10 min to get through two sentences I don't know how anyone can stand it.
I took a look at the six D the Barons dressed for tonight's games and which one or two guys will come out for 58 and/or 41.
ReplyDeletePetiot and Taylor have great plus/minus numbers; I doubt they'll sit Helmer and young Montgomery has been playing great. That leaves Tuebert and Plante. I can see the latter taking a seat because he's been benched before this year, right? Not sure they'd do it to Tuebert, though.
Dennis:
ReplyDeleteNot to mention they've got 4 F's to drop into the lineup, in Omark, Hartikainen, VDV, and O'Marra.
Also, I strongly disagree with you earlier when you suggested that EDM draft Larsson or Landeskog if they move Hall to C. IMO, they should just take the BPA either way. If they deem that to be a C in RNH or Couturier, great, that would be outstanding if you've got a "#1 C" playing on your second line, like COL (Forsberg/Sakic), DET (Fedorov, Yzerman, or Datsyuk/Zetterberg), PIT (Crosby/Malkin) or EDM of old, you're in with a chance for a number of years if you handle your business reasonably well in other areas.
If they take Nugent it would rock if they left him in the Dub for a year.
ReplyDeleteRNH just what this team needs is a playmaking forward who only gets 30% of his points from goals. This team is so loaded with goal scorers and lack a real good play maker.
Your willing to take the playmaker in the top two when traditionally you take an anchor dman or 50%G 50%A guy. But you only want 1 30-35% guy on a line if you can help it.
Jones 18G(72%) 7A
Hall 22G(52%) 20A
Pajarvi 15G(45%) 18A
Eberle 18G(42%) 25A
Gagner 15G(36%) 27A
Hemsky 14G(33%) 28A
Horcoff 9G(33%) 18A
Cogliano 11G(31%) 24A
Omark 5G(20%) 20A
What is really sad is to be a top 120 (1st or 2nd line production) Goal scorer a player has to get 19Goals. Um er Way to go Hall your a bottom 2nd line level goal producer.
Our lines with 36% or less scorers.
XXXX-XXXX-Hemsky
XXXX-Horcoff-XXXX
XXXX-Gagner-Omark
XXXX-XXXX-Cogliano
do we have Forward prospects who could be top 9 or top 6
Curtis Hamilton 26G(32%) 56A
Martindale 34G(41%) 49A
Pitlick 27G(44%) 35A
No room at the inn for a 30% scorer
So tonight the Jets see fit to beat the Sharks, but they couldn't be bothered to close out LA the other night after they were up 2-1. Makes me crazy.
ReplyDeleteBy my calculations, the highest the LA pick can get now is 15th. That would require the Ducks to beat them tomorrow, the Hawks to beat the Wings on Sunday, LA to not make the Conference Finals (perfectly reasonable so far), and the bottom 2 seeds in the East to make the Conference Finals (not remotely reasonable, but hey it happened last year).
The 17th pick seems like the most likely positive scenario, but it makes me crazy to think how close we were to seeing that pick squeak into the lottery.
And then when I tried the lottery simulator earlier and it told me Dallas had won and would get the 10th pick? Well, it was just plain infuriating.
How are the Oilers?
ReplyDeleteI hear they might have found a Finn that's pretty good. Any truth to the rumour?
Uni: I didn't like Braveheart either.
ReplyDeleteCogs and VDV played 46 minutes and took 29 of 35 draws between them. No wonder VDV looks exhausted out there.
ReplyDeleteO'Marra played the other 14 minutes at C. We can stick a fork in him. He has been passed by VDV and doesn't look like an NHL player.
Dare I say it, but JFJ has looked better the last 10 games or so. The play still dies with him everytime but he is hitting and fighting with more gumption.
The World According to Finns
ReplyDeleteGlad they found a Finn in the 6th round.
More please.
Mike: true enough. I guess I just don't think the Oilers have any interest in the french kid.
ReplyDeleteMike: also, I don't see it being a problem putting those four guys back in.
ReplyDeleteFrom last night Lord and Tremblay are the first two out and then there are some other candidates as well. I would say Cornet and maybe Stortini or House.
So I finally saw the replay of that hit by Staubitz on Paajarvi and it didn't look that bad on first review. Was it worth having a guy come off the bench and go apeshit and take seven minutes in penalties and cost Oilers a powerplay goal against in a 2-1 loss?
ReplyDeleteI'm no big fan of Staubitz but that seemed like a tad overrreactive to me. But I wasn't watching the game, so somebody fill me in. (Just not Mac style, please.)
- 23 should be drawing a lot of penalties Right Now but for some reason he gets no respect from the officials. if that continues early on next year then it's a trend unlikely to be broken.
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be hard for him to draw the penalties because he intentionally tries to get as close to the defender as possible so that he can swivel around them. Jagr used to do the same kind of thing but he was twice Omarks size and had three times the reach. The refs are smart enough to know when a guy purposely puts himself into a position where he's going to get held/hooked and they don't usually call it until it's super obvious. Omark also tends to fall down pretty easily when a battle doesn't go his way.
I think he'll learn what works and what doesn't as time goes by. He seems like a pretty smart player.
Damn...Simulated twice and Columbus and Florida both got #1 ahead of us.
ReplyDelete...Realising that this doesn't make any sense. Didn't read the thing properly. Oop.
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteOn average, NHL teams have 1 rookie in the top 30. By your numbers, Oilers have 3 in the top 10. Yet somehow they're way below average? Sometimes your insistence in putting a negative spin on Everything makes me think you're not so much a troll as an electron.
To be fair to DSF, optimist baiting is pretty addictive. It must be hard for him to pull time away from breaking it to teenage girls how there is no way that Taylor Lautner ever finds them anything but ugly and fat. Good times.
The numbers he gives are good context, though, even if he's looking for points other than what Lowetide is making. Out of 30 teams, Oilers have a hair over 1/3 of the top-11 rookies by that metric, and a few are on the young end. But do we really have to niggle with whether the Oilers rookies are seeing pretty stiff competion? With the disaster of a club they're playing on, they could have been eaten up, so if you spot them some because of the team they're on they're in the conversation of some good players. Honestly, look at the Oilers: there just wasn't a lot of shelter there so their showing is fairly encouraging.
I mostly agree with DSF about Paajarvi: I'm not sure I see him putting up a lot of points in the NHL unless he really develops playing the point on the PP. This said, I think he might be a useful player beyond just the scoring. By points he's obliterating Kesler's age equivalent season, for example. Of course regarding Kesler it would be interesting to hear how raw points aren't everything and team context factors into evaluation.
Skinner looks great by stats and by eye. He was one of the top performers in his draft year in Vic/Willis' event metric. Good for him, and hard to believe anyone really picked him ahead of Hall.
congrats Reddox! finally
ReplyDelete