Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Predators at Oilers, G64 '10-'11

I was lucky enough to see Dustin Penner's final game as an Oiler. In the years he was with the club, #27 was routinely the best player on the ice when we were at Rexall.
--

From what I know of him, Tyler Dellow has at least two great gifts: clarity and the ability to frame an issue. In his post last night (it is here) Dellow does an excellent job of explaining his viewpoint on the trade and identifying where he (and others) disconnect from my post yesterday.

I have only two issues with the article. First, his take on my views on Penner's value. Here's what I said about Penner's worth:
  • If the Oilers are convinced Penner won't sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he's healthy and it isn't beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.  
And here is Tyler's reaction:
  • Again, all due respect to LT, but five defencemen picked after Teubert in the first round have already played 56 or more NHL games. I’m not going to pretend to have an opinion about someone I haven’t seen but there are warning signs with Teubert already. An outstanding prospect? I don’t know that you can reasonably say that today, considering where he’s fallen relative to his draft class.
I have a slight issue with Tyler's comments, there's a little daylight between clarity and framing the issue. My original comment said "a very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick." Seems to me the value of the pick (a first rounder) makes up for the gap between Teubert and my description of the player we should have expected in return. It's a small item but does play a part in his conclusion.

Tyler sums up his position with the following:
  • The most notable blogger in town, who predicted exactly how it would play out, still defends the regime, on the basis of a description of Colten Teubert that is probably fairly described as “charitable.” I mean, so what if Stu McGregor likes him? He’s a guy who got a few draft picks right, it looks like - lets not set him up in a villa in Mexico yet and just wait for his pronouncements as to who will be an NHLer and who won’t, other evidence be damned. I’m genuinely baffled that people can defend them, given that there’s no consequences attached to replacing them with someone, anyone, who isn’t responsible for what went on before. The banks aren’t going to fail if Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe don’t have jobs tomorrow. But they’ll be gone.
Tyler makes the conclusion that I'm soft on management. I would argue that my post last night was not only tough on management, it went the extra step in identifying the true villain in the piece:
  • The Oilers under owner Daryl Katz--and make no mistake this drawn out process is his vision--have decided that Edmonton fans will not see a contending team in Rexall Place.
and then later:
  • Dustin Penner's birth certificate disqualified him from being a part of the future. Next stop: dealing Ales Hemsky and securing a new arena. After that, a contender.
I wrote about it here and we're still suffering growing pains. It looks like Mr. Katz isn't the quick study we might have hoped for, and the timeline is going to be longer than needed.

Mr. Katz owns the team and hopefully one day the lights will turn on and he'll realize it doesn't have to be this way. I don't think Kevin Lowe will be fired on that day, though. He'll be president of someting and chances are Steve Tambellini will have a role, too. Mike Illitch replaced Jim Devellano as GM decades ago, but he stayed on in various roles. I expect that'll be exactly what happens here.

The decision to turn back the median age, to deal Penner, to move the future, belongs to Daryl Katz.

608 comments:

  1. I gotta do some work today so I'll be brief, but, in the absence of some hard proof, I have a hard time seeing Katz as the main villain here. You look at all the stupidity that's gone on. Katz might have a master plan and Katz obviously can overrule everyone but I have to believe that he's a rational actor. If he is a rational actor, and he was competently advised, I can't believe a lot of what has gone on would go on.

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  2. I agree. It all starts at the top. I believe it was Katz who was behind going after Hossa, signing Khabibulin and certainly chasing Heatley.

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  4. This trade still discusts me I am really choked I paid the deposit on my season tickets. I dont want to watch this garbage for 3-5 more years. I have had a hell of a time trying to even give away tickets for for half price since November. How the hell am I am going to get rid of them next year. I am going to be eating $8484 it looks like or eat the $1600 or so for my deposit.

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  5. LT - I think you gave a sober analysis. I personally think that some people are overvaluing 1.3 years of Penner and undervaluing the value of the return that could impact this team over the next 5-10 years.

    I would have liked something more tangible in return in terms of a more certain rookie player (as opposed to a pick and a project), but we don't know what returns were available. As good as many of us think Penner is, I am not certain that he has as good of a reputation across the league.

    Anyway, the trade has unleashed a torrent of emotions out there and I would suggest to commenters that they take care to phrase their comments in the manner of "I disagree with you and this is why" as opposed to "You are minion" or "You are blinded by your fan goggles" or "You are blinded by your hate for Tambellini". The difference is subtle, but one is a respectful disagreement, the other is an insult to someone's character.

    I would suspect that the failure of people to recognize and respect that difference was the reason for LT killing the thread yesterday and it would be a shame not to have a Game Day thread today.

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  6. Why can't they get a high quality prospect for a 1st line LW who will play at least 2 playoffs for the team getting him?

    Why do they capitulate and then trumpet the number of "assets" instead of getting a solid building block.

    A solid prospect and a 2nd > 1st, Teubert, 2/3rd

    If MBS turns the 1st into something, then this trade isn't as lopsided as it is today, but that's the rub. That's a big "if"

    They may have traded their points/goals leader for a package that ends up playing less than 300 NHL games total.

    They had certainty in the player they traded and got nothing but "ifs" and "hopes" back.

    Want to trade Penner? Fine, trade him, but get something with certainty back.

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  7. I'll have to agree with Tyler insofar that management has been setting back the franchise and making stupid decisions long before Katz came to town, i.e. Comrie, moving Pronger, the return on Smyth.

    Things have been rowdy around here as of late. I know you've talked about it before, but have you re-considered the issue of enlisting moderators to help LT? It might be worth thinking about, as it seems your traffic is continually increasing and present through most waking hours.

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  8. I think a more succinct way of putting it is,

    Good teams collect and keep good players. The Oiler collect assets and pray at the alter of MBS he can turn lead into gold.

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  9. A couple points...First, it appeared from Tambo's presser that he believes Teubert is a quality prospect who brings a skill-set they lack in.

    Second, if the fan base is so divided on this trade I can only imagine how it is impacting the actual players in the dressing room. Penner filled a few roles on this team and now less experienced players will be forced out of their comfort zones. I will be curious to see who responds well and who is overwhelmed.

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  10. There was a lot of preparation by people who care about this team for something to go badly yesterday. Many comments were made about what should or should not have happened, with attendant promises of anger/disbelief. So when the Penner deal went down - much like the hockey fan who sits in the stands waiting for Gilbert to make a mistake - there was howls of outrage. Justified or not.

    I don't like the deal, I am with the majority in that it sacrifices next season for no purpose, but I don't care about the return at any rate. Penner is undervalued everywhere as a player, so it is no surprise management got rid of him for as little as they did - even if it only removes the daily reminder of the offer-sheet embarrassment that must hang around KLowe.

    I just struggle with accepting the fact that there are forces who control the fate of this team who feel that the timeline needs to be so long. My son, who was born during that last magical run, will be well into the 4th or 5th grade wondering why his father cheers for a team that hasn't won anything his whole life. And I won't really have an answer for him.

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  11. I think most people are upset about yesterday's deal because the bloggers got everyone worked up in a lather and anything less than Braydon Schenn pivoting Eberle and Hall would have been a failure.
    I too was disappointed, but I kind of fell for the wishful thinking as well. Dare to dream... But what GM would give up Schenn?
    I'm not too upset about the return, picks in a rebuild and a piece (that needs developing) that addresses something the Oil really need. There's no saying he ever needs to be an Oiler, he's still a 1st rounder that could be dealt in a package for more.
    I understand what they are saying about the timing of the build. We need to build around the young core of kids. If this is done patiently and properly, by the time Hall and and his boys are really, really ready, we can be the Powerhouse that we want today.
    I think any rebuild can be done in 3 years, but taking a bit of time with this particular group is the way to go, imo, like it or not.
    Keep up the good work LT.

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  12. And I like bookie's suggestion of how we frame our disagreements.

    Disagreement is the heart of this blog and I have learned a lot about hockey as a result of it. But the personal assaults do nothing to move things forward.

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  13. What Bar Qu said.

    (The first time, I mean; I'm all about relying on invective and ad hominem as the core of my argumentative strategy. Anybody who disagrees is a Bookie fanboy.)

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  14. I had a dream last night where I was at one of Tambo's pancake breakfasts and asked him "sneak peak, when Hall and Eberle only have a year left before UFA, what excuse will you make to dump them too?"

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  15. LT: OK, how about this.

    Let's say it's Katz's fault for demanding a 27 deal because he's working towards a certain timeline.

    OK, who's fault is it that we deal 27 for an org's fourth or fifth D prospect and that we deal him to a team who's first round pick is gonna be in the 20's?

    Bookie: being a homer and loving the scales that cover your eyes is something that I don't believe in and that I don't mind calling people out for.

    I saw the Expo rip everything away but I still loved them and I said as much. But with them I knew it was because they were cheap and when they made bad deals like the Colon trade well I ranted and raved but I never swayed but at least I was honest about why I didn't.

    So, you can say you'll follow the team no matter what but you look silly if you defend a 27 trade after you've seen the same approach in the Smyth and Pronger deals blow up in your face.

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  16. MC...

    you get to pick and choose which human beings in the organization are rational actors?

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  17. posted this over at oilers nation but will repeat here.

    I don't like this trade. LA seems to have gotten away too clear a victor. I don't think we were going to get back an active NHLer from any team, but that some team out there should have had a prospect better than Teubert they'd be willing to deal.

    I also think Penner wasn't lying about being willing to re-sign, and that a value contract wasn't out of the question given his recent performance.

    Still, I think we need to be clear on what the return on this trade actually will be.

    It isn't just two picks and a prospect. It is two picks, a prospect *and* the cap space to sign a UFA or RFA while retaining Hall and Eberle post ELC.

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  18. Also, let's take a little sneak peak at the deal of 83.

    Look at all the depth charts in the league and pick out a team's third or four best D or forward prospect.

    Put them on a list and you'll have one of the next guys who becomes an Edmonton Oil.

    Note: don't bother to look at a team's top prospect.

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  19. The problem is, the Oilers have been run like a lower division English soccer team since 1992 - essentially in business to entertain a relatively small fanbase at low cost, while developing young players for the larger richer teams in the higher divisions.

    Except this model won't honestly wash in North America, so Oilers mgmt preach a "wait until tomorrow" policy to settle the otherwise digruntled fans.

    Clearly these people cannot run a professional hockey organisation along the lines of say, Philadelphia or Detroit. Having now proven beyond reasonable doubt they no real skills of their own, they look around to see what other teams have done, perpetually learning on the job, with tenure that rivals a college professor.

    I predict the Oilers made a catastrophic error in judgement yesterday, to be manifested by a lot of unrenewed season tickets.

    As for tonight's game, who really cares? Oilers are no longer even about the on ice product. Oilers are about politics - so a billionaire's vision of tomorrow, paid for by taxpayers hard earned money keeps the party going.

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  20. you get to pick and choose which human beings in the organization are rational actors?

    I assume all of us are rational actors. What gets in the way of that from time to time is our flawed assessment of what's rational. In Katz' case, I expect he's advised as to what's rational by Lowe and Tambo.

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  21. Also, I would like to point out that I said I wouldn't turn down - though I didn't expect it to be offered - a Schenn/Simmonds for 83 deal so it's not like I'm gonna hate everything the club does.

    But, let's say that yesterday we were a real team and the Kings were us.

    And we picked up Dustin Brown for Alex Plante.

    You tell me you wouldn't be laughing your asses off?

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  22. And LT, I think both you and MC are wrong to paint anyb villains here.

    The Oil had two choices:

    1. Quick rebuild
    2. Full rebuild

    Both come with assorted risks and neither are guaranteed to bring a Cup.

    I think after the shenanigans of the past, most everyine wanted a quick rebuild... notorious Canadian impatience and all that.

    Katz, Lowe and Tambo choose option 2. Equally defensible. Probably more viable.

    Seeing the value other players, Fisher, Boyes got, it is petty obvious Tambo got as much as he could in the name of adding to and hastening that rebuild as best he could. And still people are pissed.

    Witchhunts and agenda sicken me.

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  23. To be honest, I still don't get the I'm ok with it side.

    When you look at it any which way there is just more bad than good here. It's pretty much undebateable in my mind.

    Arguements:

    Market Value: See Jason Arnott deal, factor in age, contract and extra year
    - Conclusion: Falls short

    Assets Recieved: Look over LA prospect pool, see that we recieved maybe they're 3rd or 4th best defensive prospect. Realize the inherit gamble in the likelyhood of a late 1st and another 2nd or 3rd panning out. Add the fact that we are getting supposedly someone that could turn out to be Greene (aka a #4 defender; except smaller and already possibly showing some injuries)
    - Conclusion Falls short

    Timeline: 2nd year of your ELC's. No closer to a hint of light in the tunnel next season. Our kids will be on second contracts possibly by the time Teubert is doing his year 1 Greene impersonation. The picks may be rookies by then, if they pan out.

    -Conclusion there is no timeline (notwithstanding hoping and praying)

    Team makeup: We are now one more actual NHL'er short with absolutely nothing that is even close to possibly filling in for it next year. We are doomed for the cellar again. Can anyone honestly believe Hemsky would be crazy enough to extend without any clear picture if this will actually get better? He's seen it fall apart before and another season in the cellar has got to be one to many. If that's the case, now Dither's will be dealing him from a position of weakness next year as everyone knows he needs to be dealt (which means more magic beans likely headed this way.).

    Also, if we are looking at the future, why keep guys like JVM or Jones here? Surely someone would have given you something for either of them. Why not give more bullets to Stu? We're operating on hope and prayer anyways...

    Conclusion: Epic fail

    Anyone that honestly doesn't think with an actually respected GM we would not have gotten such a poor return needs to wake up. If we wanted Seguin last summer I would be willing to bet that could have happened with Hemsky and Penner and cap space we possess.

    If this is what Prestige gets by playing hard ball they are not cut out for the job. Plain and simple. No amount of excuses or maybes makes up for what we see before our very eyes.

    We took that playoff run right off a cliff and are still free falling. To throw away one of the few truly valuable present assets we have for maybes is so far beyond insanely stupid that I cannot come up with a word for it.

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  24. spoiler: Daryl Katz can do anything he wants. If he'd like to have the team peaking out when the new building opens then he's free to do it since he's the owner.

    I have every right to paint him as the villain in the story that involves the current team and his management group.

    If he's not accountable, who is?


    Dennis: Teubert is 20 years old and a new pro. He is also on a very deep AHL team, so the "Cliff Johnson" effect could be in full swing.

    I don't know that for certain. I wish the Oilers had traded for more immediate help but that's not the Katz timeline.

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  25. Terry Jones thinks the trade is a win for Edmonton.

    His money line is:

    " (Penner) Doesn't make anybody else any better"

    The opposite is actually true.

    Penner made everyone around him better, and he was better at this than any other Oiler.

    Derek Zona at the Copper n Blue had 2 pieces discussion this. here and here.

    I've been liking Jones' stuff a lot lately, but I think this one is a swing and a miss.

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  26. Wait, people are really defending this trade? How many times do we have to acquire another team's failed mid-first round picks before we realize it's a poor decision?

    Honest to God, we should've just given LA Hemsky and Penner for Schenn. We'd be getting sixty cents on the dollar, but at least we would've walked away with a player who could actually contribute one day instead of Ladislav Smid v2.

    But hey I am excited to hear how great he looks in camp and how he's NHL ready. Smid has almost stopped being flabbergasted by the backdoor play, we need a new guy.

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  27. @ spoiler

    Keep him if that is all you get. When I brought up trading them last summer, I'm sure if I go back I would likely find comments by you indicating that would be a bad idea. That we needed actual NHL'ers around the kids. Not 100% but I'd be suprised if I didn't.

    Let Lombardi rot. Pray his team falls short. See what next year brings. That return just isn't worth jumping on. If that's the best you could get there really is no reason not to just get the magic beans at next years deadline.

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  28. What is so awful about wanting things to pick up a bit faster? The fans aren't getting any younger! Well, I'm not, anyway...

    I'm sure SOMEONE in the world has the savvy to turn this team into a winner in fewer than 5 years, so let's start looking for such an able GM.

    Fans shouldn't HAVE to assume that their team is a non-starter for the next 5 years. We should have MUCH better expectations.

    Since Penner was my favourite player, I am seriously considering jumping on the Kings bandwagon. I have had enough heart ache over the past decade...

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  29. I think the last comment by Spoiler hints at a bigger misunderstanding of many Oilers fans. There's a difference between a partial rebuild that will get us into the playoffs and likely lose and a full rebuild into a team that qualifies for the playoffs every year and contends for the Cup as a favourite, rather than a surprise underdog.

    The Oilers, if different (some might say, better) decisions were made in the last 2-3 years could be fielding a playoff team this year (or next for certain). However, this team would be an 8th place squad ready to be gobbled up by the Vancouvers or Detroits of the hockey world. Moreover, gunning for 8th brings the real possibility of finishing 9th, the absolute worst place in the NHL standings. Personally, I'd rather suffer through some bad years and see a real winner than challenge for 8th more often.

    It would be much better if this decision had been made years earlier, instead of management trying to hang onto the good times of 2005-06 but this is the right strategy to take now that we're here. Given that overall plan, I'm with LT that this trade was a reasonable return that fits with the plan - if an unhappy departure at that.

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  30. Sports is a results-based business, so when a couple of guys assume they can work ad nauseum for X years without results, people get irritated.

    Obviously they can't telegraph their intentions to the other GMs, but it would be nice if they clue the fanbase in on what that plan is at least somewhat, instead of these cryptic 3-4-5 year remarks.

    The interesting thing is that this happened before with the model we're supposedly following. The Blackhawks fanbase got so disgusted at the lack of forward movement that for a few years they drew 3-5,000 fans per game.

    Hopefully the management understands it doesn't need to be like that here.

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  31. At first I was somewhat disappointed in the return on the trade. Futures for a know quantity is always risky.

    The bigger picture has to be taken into consideration here. I think the writing was on the wall for Penner a few weeks ago. The coaching staff has routinely subbed in other players on that 1st line LW spot. Whether that was to get help on other lines or because Penner didn't always seem to mesh with Horcoff and Hemsky can be debated.

    So where does this trade leave the Oilers? Well, I would say they dealt from a position of strength. They had 3 top 6 LWers going forward, with Hall, Paajarvi and Penner. We all see the potential Paajarvi has as a rookie. He seems to be very responsible defensively and he has some offense. Just how much remains to be seen. However, the loss of Penner's offense will be mitigated by the increase in opportunity for a guy like Paajarvi. There will be more PP time for Hall, Paajarvi and Omark.

    The RW depth is still a little thin. Dealing Hemsky would have opened up a bigger hole even if you get Schenn in return. With Schenn you still don't know quite what he'll be able to bring to the table right away. Can he play toughs and help Hall and Ebs. Or does he need to play more sheltered minutes to start?

    I don't buy the loss of offense argument. This isn't a high scoring club to begin with. Hall's numbers will improve as will Eberle's.

    A common refrain has been that they could have waited until next year's deadline to get a similar return.... Really? If you knew for certain you could maybe you wait but prices fluctuate all the time. In 2006 the Oilers gave up a 1st round pick to acquire Dwayne Roloson. Good luck getting a 1st round pick for any goalie nowadays.

    Who knows what the market will bear next year. Look no further than the Souray incident. Had they dealt Souray a year earlier they could have had a decent return now they can't give him away.

    I don't know enough about Teubert but I don't think Voynov is what the Oilers needed anyway and Forbort is further away than Teubert.

    I hate to see the big man go. I think the Oilers got what they needed to get. I just hope Hemsky is in the long term plans.

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  32. Yesterday seems to have given many of the older and long term fans a real feeling that no one is getting any younger.

    I really can't fathom it properly, but it appears that the Oiler's inadvertently are now in the religion business.

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  33. If we had a plan. A big IF (if it looks and smells like BS I don't really need to eat it).

    If we knew we were not a year or two away from the right side of the curve. Why not deal these guys last summer when contending teams were struggling to come up with a way to deep six cap poison and pick up top end players. Anyone cannot honestly say there would be now way a savy salesmen couldn't get a brilliant return should never sell anything.

    They only decided we needed to rebuild a solid 3 years after a lot of us were praying they realize they were already in one.

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  34. As an aside, I'll say I could be a lot more on-board with the lose forever rebuild plan if the team was keeping their studs in junior/Sweden. At this point, given our hopes and the timeline, we're essentially setting it up so that Taylor Hall is making $7MM a year during the era we decide to compete in.

    I don't know about you, but if I'm committed to my plan to compete five years down the road, I'm going to Bobby Ryan the kid.

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  35. I don't think there is a witch hunt to all the frustration that is taking place. Its quite simply that we clearly got an inferior prospect out of LA. What was obtained from the Kings, barring the continued "Seer like powers" of Stu MacGregor will likely never amount to the 100 games of NHL hockey that we would have obtained simply by letting Dustin Penner play out his contract here in Edmonton.

    Whether or not Penner wanted to stick around, there are reasons to go either way on the question. The guy grew up ten minutes down the road from me in southern Manitoba and believe me when you grow up in a town with less than ten thousand people Edmonton seems plenty big to you. On the other hand there is the whole actress girlfriend from southern California thing so I can understand if the organization thought "I've heard this song before".

    But ultimately its not the trade that bothers me. Its the return, you've given up 100 NHL games of a 30 goal scorer and first crack of resigning him for perhaps a 60% chance at an NHL regular, this is assuming the probability of Colten Teubert becoming an NHL regular hasn't degregaded significantly since being drafted.

    I think in the Oilers position you needed to hold out for a return that gauranteed you NHL games played. They didn't and the team is measurably worse as a result. Katz seems like he can't be a dense guy to have made himself a billionaire, I can only hope sooner rather than later he looks around and determines "this isn't any way to run any kind of business even if it is a hockey team."

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  36. It's just the same old same old with this club.

    I read MacKinnon today - and I don't know why I put myself through it but in terms of spin and obliviousness I guess it's why people watch Fox News - and he's talking about how now this deal or the MGMT group can't be judged until three of four years time and how it was great to pick up three assets.

    is it the summer of '06 again? no, wait, maybe it's feb of '07 again.

    so far only John Short has had the balls so stand up and say "wait, this rebuild thing is shit and Lowe has ballsed up the org."

    instead you get guys like mackinnon giving them even more of a break.

    and we had hope for jones but he spazzed out as well.

    I just don't get it.

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  37. In other news, Petiot recalled to the big club.

    They traded Belle away because of the AHL's veteran rule, could they not have just recalled him? It's not as if Petiot's been lighting the AHL up.

    Curious.

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  38. I love people who use the argument that the Oilers traded from a position of strenth because they have 'depth'.

    You do of course realize that this 'depth' you speak of has this team dead f***ing last for the 2nd year running right?

    Yea, great strength.

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  39. Last bit of my rant (sorry LT)

    There is no timeline for a rebuild. There is no timeline for a constantly competitive squad. Everytime I read this bunk I shake my head ask myself:

    How long did Philly wander in the desert for?

    Do I really think these guys can manage to identify core assets?

    Do I really think these guys have given any reason to believe they can properly manage the cap?

    Do I really think these guys have what it takes to make trades that absolutely fleece the Doug Mcleans?

    Are they Doug Mcleans?

    Building a solid team has no real timeline. It starts and ends with owner willing to put the money down to succeed and ends with management able to smartly utilize said funding.

    We have one of these things. Katz get's a pass because of that in my books. We just need to figure out how to get him to fire Prestige.

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  40. Quain just made an outstanding point about when 4 could have came in the league and he also could have made it about 91 too in terms of how you stagger how much money these guys make if you want to really cluster towards a stretch of winning.

    and Chris chimes in with something close to what I was thinking yesterday when the Puppet was talking about how excited Stu was with all these bullets.

    All of a sudden, MGMT is hiding behind or passing off the responsibilities to MacGregor.

    Just think about that for a second. He's the new idol and let's just get him all kinds of picks because I'm sure he's never gonna miss and if he does well look at all the chances we had!!!

    27 was REAL. There's a chance that nothing we picked up today approaches his value.

    but I guess that doesn't matter.

    LT: I'm not ignoring your Cliff Johnson argument but I think the cream rises to the top in most situations.

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  41. A bird in hand is worth two on the wing.

    Assessing these kind of trades is bound to be contentious for two reasons. The first is that it bring up once again the timeline issue: do the Oilers compete in the near or the distant future? I think this debate is a non-starter because one has to assume that whatever the preference, management is at least trying to establish a timeline: if it is better to win now or later is largely subjective and either way, there is no guarantee of success.

    The second reason is that a known quantity was traded for a series of question marks. If those question marks reveal themselves to be superior to 27 in terms of either quality or value, then it becomes a win. If they don't, then the Oilers lost the trade. But there is no way to legitimately and definitively assess the success/failure of the trade for at least a couple years. It's more a litmus test of risk-aversion than anything.

    The real question becomes then (and this is one for the statisticians of the crowd), what are the odds that either Teubert or the coming first round pick are likely to turn into a significant piece of the contender puzzle? From what I'm hearing, the first rounder is likely to be late and Teubert is far from living up to his pedigree so far (oh the list of past Oilers who fit that bill...)

    Given these things, it is very difficult to definitively say the Oilers lost in this trade. But it is even harder to argue that they won.

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  42. I don't like the trade.

    I think that it comes down to whether or not you believe in Lowe and Tambellini or not. There are those of us who are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and as a result their moves will be defended. That's fair, really if you think that this is all for naught and that we are going to wander in the desert for another couple of decades then you could get awfully angry or depressed, depending on how you roll.

    And then there are those of us who think that these guys don't have the chops and that six or seven years from now we are going to be doing this all over again with nothing to show for it except memories of Hall and Eberle before they were sent away for lottery tickets.

    I'm in the second camp. I really hope that I am wrong and that some day I can eat a huge helping of crow but its been five years and now we know that next year has been written off as well. And the same guys who got us here are still running the show.

    Its too bad. It could be worse and unfortunately I think in the end its going to be much worse.

    Tambellini and Lowe just don't have what it takes. Its going to take a huge amount of luck I'm afraid.

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  43. The point about the trade that Oilers management is missing is a simple one. Is the product on the ice better today than it was on Sunday before the trade ?

    The answer is no. In the future, it might be if all things work out. Tuebert and the draft pick become great assets.

    In fact, the team is worse off in October than there were on Sunday unless Tuebert takes huge strides over summer.

    Did they get a reasonable return - yes probably, given the circumstances. Do I like it ? No, not particularly.

    This is an NHL team and they should at least attempt to ice a competitive team and try to get better considering this will be year 5 out of the playoffs. Part of a business is giving value to paying customers. Are season ticket holders getting good value ? are they getting entertained ? or are they subjected to an inferior team on the ice ?

    Selling off your best assets one by one for future prospects and draft pics sounds like a small market, we can't compete strategy. This is similar to what the Oilers did prior to the new CBA.

    Until fans start voting with their wallets and quit renewing season tickets and quit buying tickets to games, the Oilers organization will continue to rebuild into eternity or until Katz decides he's ready to ice a winning team.

    Further to that, given the salary costs of the team this season and again next season (unless significant UFA $$$ are spent in the summer), this style of management is not much different than Pocklington's style.

    Peter was able to take away huge profits on the backs of a successful hockey team. Katz is able to run a profitable organization, maximizing the return by lowering salary costs and increasing ticket prices while promising a future of greatness. Meanwhile the bottom line of the team will be excellent.

    How long the fans will continue to buy into that future strategy remains to be seen.

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  44. For the record:

    I took a lot of flack last summer trying to push the idea of trading these guys.

    I didn't want to trade them. I've just accepted that we're doomed as long as the top remains. Hoped that at least they might be smart enough to pay forward what little present value we currently posess for the next GM.

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  45. Its really not that complicated.

    The Oilers started the rebuild this time last year. You may not like it as they were not good before then, but clearly there was a massive change in philosophy in the organization.

    So we just finished year 1. I expect they have a three year plan of collecting the highest picks they can get. Next yr is likely more of the same.


    Clearly, the idea is too get lottery picks for three years so as to build depth thoughout the organization.

    Barely getting into the playoffs next year would undermine the rebuild (the picks wound not be as good). I am sure you would feel warm and fuzzy for about three minutes until VCR rolled over us.

    The most important thing that guys who are upset forget about is the goal is to build a contender, not just a playoff team. Keeping Penner, adding some pieces (such as the org is able to) might get them to the playoffs for a few years, but can you say that this team would be anything more than a bottom 8 team?

    You can't.

    Whereas there have been plenty of teams that have done the tear down and gone on to contention. OTT is doing it. Dudley, who built CHI into a contender, is now doing the same thing in FLA. LAK did it. Now they are stacked at every position.

    Its not rocket science, but it does take time.

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  46. is it the summer of '06 again? no, wait, maybe it's feb of '07 again.

    I guess that's the real rub... viewed in isolation on its own merits, the deal is one thing. But viewed as part of the larger pattern, it is a vicious circle that seems to perpetually delay not only success, but accountability by mgmt. And like another poster pointed out before, we went through this with Smyth, Pronger and various lesser players and are still waiting to see a single one of those deals truly turn into something meaningful.

    As an aside, is there a single other NHL team that has never had one single franchise player who's been with the team from draft to retirement? I hope the new arena has revolving doors...

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  47. and we had hope for jones but he spazzed out as well.

    Jones never liked Penner.

    When MacT was losing his mind with Penner, Jones was cheering it on in most of his columns.

    This quote from Jones about Penner in today's column hasn't changed much in 4 years:

    "Inconsistent. Refused to use his size to any advantage other than occasional personal positioning.

    Doesn't make anybody else any better.

    He certainly didn't play with the kind of passion or compete at the level that Taylor Hall and kids on this team have already exhibited"

    The old "Damn the results, I know what I see argument" coupled with lack of "glowing eyes"

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  48. They traded Belle away because of the AHL's veteran rule, could they not have just recalled him? It's not as if Petiot's been lighting the AHL up.

    Curious.


    Not really. What do they do in a week when Teddy is ready to go? Petroit goes back to OKL and Belle would be surplus again.

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  49. Just to be really clear, the ONLY way that cap space is an asset is if the team actually does something with it. The islanders and nashville always have a fair bit of room under the cap, but won't ever use it due to the economics of their market, so it's not really an asset for them.

    If the Oilers go out and try to bring in Brad Richards, or another first line player who can do some heavy lifting (or second liners who could do the same) then I can see this working out okay. However, simply having cap space hasn't worked out so well for this team so far, and I'm not convinced it will here either...

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  50. LT,

    When did I deny your right to paint Katz as villain?

    I said I thought you were wrong.

    A much different thing, lol.

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  51. Keeping Penner, adding some pieces (such as the org is able to) might get them to the playoffs for a few years, but can you say that this team would be anything more than a bottom 8 team?

    You can't.


    Ducey,

    Here are the top 5 teams in the NHL right now: PHI, DET, VAN, TBY, BOS

    Only one of those come close to resembling a team that rebuilt over a long period of time, and that is Tampa.

    The others may have one or two high picks, but got to where they are today by adding good NHL players and not subtracting good NHL players.

    There is actually more evidence that being bad for a long period of time and accumulating high draft picks doesn't work (NYI,FLA,ATL,CLB) than it does (PIT,WAS - maybe not won a cup, CHI)

    The narrative of getting multiple high draft picks is the only way to build a cup contender doesn't hold water.

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  52. Oh, one other thing.

    I really appreciate the tone of this thread. Lots of disagreement and disappointment but no drivebys or outrageous slurs about managment or other posters.

    The people and level of discussion are the reasons this is the best place to hang out to discuss the Oilers.

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  53. So i have been conflicted about this deal for the last day. On one hand if they don't think he'll sign an extension, then moving him makes sense. Did we get enough? not sure. We, as fans, see our own players sometimes through rose coloured glasses.
    Do we see Penner's value as higher then the rest of the league? Absolutely.
    Are we accurate on his ability? Probably.
    Does the rest of the league, media pundits and hockey people have the same opinion of Penner? No.

    And there's the rub. Based on the comments from every channel, radio show yesterday, almost every pundit and hockey person thinks the Oilers got full value and then some for Penner. So where is the truth? If 99% of hockey thinks it was a good deal, does it not mean we did get full value? We may slag the team for not getting enough, but if the whole league thinks Penner is less then we perceive, then maybe we should be happy with the return.

    At the end of the day we got a tough stay at home dman a few years away from being able to log big minutes. Will he be that player? not sure, but he is the exact kind of player we lack in the system. With Plante and him they doubled their chance of having a top end stay at home Jason Smith type of player. We increased our depth in the system, added bullets to Stu's gun and gave the team more options at the draft to make a move.

    On the other hand, Penner if he was going to sign (and that is the biggest question) would have given us another 5 or 6 years of solid two way play, with around 30 goals and playing the tough minutes. We've added all the kids we need (after this draft), and now it is up to management to fill the holes. This summer is the tipping point. If there is no improvement with the team next year I think we actually see backlash from the fans. And only once the fans actually get pissed and don't show up, will the team be forced to speed up the recovery. Katz is not the bad guy, he's just been sold a bill of goods by management that we need 5 years. I wish he knew more, but based on the move he still has no idea we were closer then 5 years. Right now, 5 years seems like hopeful thinking.

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  54. spOILer: Sorry, misunderstood. I read "witch hunts and agenda's" and thought it was directed at me.

    Probably because I've been on so many witch hunts. :-)

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  55. The point about the trade that Oilers management is missing is a simple one. Is the product on the ice better today than it was on Sunday before the trade ?

    By this logic the Oilers should have traded away their next few first round picks for any NHL players - it would make the team better TODAY.

    I think trades are more complicated and you have to balance future and present needs and you also have to consider the length of time you have the asset for, not just the quality of the asset.

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  56. Clearly, the idea is too get lottery picks for three years so as to build depth thoughout the organization.

    Why stop there? Why not four years? Or six? Imagine a top line and top D pairing of former lotto picks! That team would be awesome!!1!

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  57. A locked thread I wasn't involved in?

    That's a new one. Who caused those shenanigans?

    Anyway back on the thread.

    I don't think we can really call it a good trade every time MBS does something good with our picks. He's obviously doing way too good for a human being right now and he's probably going to fall a bit in other drafts. Can't just make bad trades on paper and get our ass saved everytime. Won't happen.

    It's like the Grebeshkov trade. It was questionnable but the draft pick made it go our way. Tough if the pick doesn't pan out, management probably look like asses. Lost an NHL calibre defenseman with nothing to show for

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  58. @ Little Fury

    LOL! We shouldn't stop there.


    We should trade all our draft picks this year for once in 2013

    Say our 1st for someones 1st and 2nd

    Our 2nd for someones 2nd and 3rd

    Just think how many more picks we'll have then!!!

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  59. Woodguy, it's interesting that you mention those top 5 teams because almost all of them were able to acquire impact FAs or able to keep elite FAs that they drafted (usually as lottery picks). Consider:
    Vancouver - the Sedins, Luongo
    Detroit - Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg
    Philadelphia - Briere, Pronger, Carter. Richards
    TB - Lecavalier, St. Louis
    Boston - Chara, Savard (when healthy - if that ever happens again)

    Is there anyone on that list you wouldn't trade Penner for straight up? Or even Hemsky? Of course not, because those are ELITE players, the type that win Cups, not good to very good players - the type that populate good teams, but are not irreplaceable.

    Because Penner was one of the top players on this bad team and because Oil fans (particular those of the advanced math persuasion) have a higher (and probably more accurate) opinion of him than the hockey world in general, we start confusing this trade with giving away an irreplaceable piece of our future Cup runs. If we want a 6th Stanley then we will need the Halls and Eberles of this world to reach truly elite status and then surround them with good to very good compliments and role players.

    Whether this trade was a good return or not is another debate (and again, I'm with LT on this one), but let's stop talking like DP was an essential building block to a Cup run. If he's a central piece, rather than a supporting (and thus, potentially interchangeable) part this is a playoff bubble team, not a top contender.

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  60. Cactus: He's not elite so we can throw him for under value?

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  61. spoiler:

    The Oil had two choices:

    1. Quick rebuild
    2. Full rebuild

    Both come with assorted risks and neither are guaranteed to bring a Cup.


    In the last 5 drafts we'll have two first (or second) overall picks, two more in the top ten, and Eberle at 22. That's a SHORT rebuild? I'd suggest we have done it the long way already.


    Ducey:

    Whereas there have been plenty of teams that have done the tear down and gone on to contention. OTT is doing it. Dudley, who built CHI into a contender, is now doing the same thing in FLA. LAK did it. Now they are stacked at every position.

    And for every one of those teams there's a NYI, Columbus or Atlanta. Being terrible for a long stretch doesn't guarantee anything.

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  62. Schitzo: If you look closely at those clubs you can clearly see that they shot themselves in the foot several times with questionable player decisions.

    Don't think the Oil will draft a goalie with the 1st pick OA or trade a lotto pick for a rental player.

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  63. If we want a 6th Stanley then we will need the Halls and Eberles of this world to reach truly elite status and then surround them with good to very good compliments and role players.

    And this time three years from now we're going to be wailing about how hard it is to find a 240lb winger who can score 25 to complement our superstars.

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  64. If we want a 6th Stanley then we will need the Halls and Eberles of this world to reach truly elite status and then surround them with good to very good compliments and role players.

    Therein lies the rub. Wouldn't Penner be good to very good compliment? As opposed to a bottom third first round pick that may not pan out and a defenseman admittedly still at the beginning of his development curve?

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  65. Milbury and Mclean have solidly proven that you can turn gold into garbage forever.

    Eberle is a huge, lucky piece in this puzzle. Considering draft position, I would say Omark and others are as well.

    We're now another couple years out. So Whitney and Gilbert will be UFA's by the time we're hopefully competing for a playoff spot.

    Return on Penner is questionable. What are the odds they hit a home run with Hemsky's return bartering from a position of weakness instead of strength?

    You can be lucky but you also need to be good. If they keep hitting on 12 while the dealer is showing a 2 odds aren't in our favour it will work out over the long haul.

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  66. barring the continued "Seer like powers" of Stu MacGregor will likely never amount to the 100 games of NHL hockey that we would have obtained simply by letting Dustin Penner play out his contract here in Edmonton.

    No need to worry about that in Teubert's case.

    The guy that was good enough to be traded for one of the highest scoring LWs in the league will get his 100 games.

    Come hell or high water

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  67. Obnoxiously cutting and pasting my comment from MC79's site because I am a one-trick pony:

    I’m pissed off too. Pretending for a moment, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Oilers management has a plan: sustained scorched earth to realize serial lottery pick status that will transmute to Glory Days II.

    I am cherry picking here, but given this year’s standings and what can only be next year’s cellar dwelling finish, let’s assess the utility of cratering for consecutive seasons. Here’s one example:

    1992-#2 Alexei Yashin
    1993-#1 Alex Daigle
    1994-#3 Radek Bonk
    1995-#1 Bryan Berard
    1996-#1 Chris Phillips

    That was a long, long streak of futility that I got to witness first hand one year-the Sens were dreadful. The result? Not one Hall of Fame player in any of those drafts, and only one star, who later demanded a trade.

    Another streak of crushing futility:

    1992-#4 Todd Warriner
    1991-#1 Eric Lindros
    1990-#1 Owen Nolan
    1989-#1 Mats Sundin
    1988-#3 Curtis Lyschshyn

    Two possible HOFers, one all star out of that bunch. Not a bad haul for such a prolonged period of suck. And you may point out the Cup in Denver not long afterwards. But not one of these guys had much to do with that Cup: Lindros was in Philly, Nolan was in SJ, and Sundin was in TO by the time that happened. So I would put that down to good asset management in Denver, plus the serendipity of a Patrick Roy tantrum that resulted in a good goalie getting shipped to a team in a trade that wouldn’t have happened if the team was still playing at Le Colisee.

    So even if the Oilers happen to run the table on a series of lottery picks, what are the odds that a) any will turn out to be generational talents like Lindros, b) that none of them will demand trades like Yashin or Lindros, and c) that the Oilers braintrust will have the savvy to properly manage these assets to build a balanced, Cup worthy squad?

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  68. FPB,

    I guess it depends how we calculate value (which should probably be a more explicit discussion here). As some others have already pointed out, if we're talking market value, then the Oilers clearly outperformed what the hockey market seemed to think was fair price for Penner.

    If we're talking about value to the team, obviously that's a more complicated formula combining:

    -performance on the ice (the one thing we can be certain about)
    -value for money (something we can only be certain about for one more year)
    -prospect of remaining an Oiler long-term (the desire of the player to stick around and his continued role with the team, something that seems cloudy)

    So sure, if we could resign Penner for a reasonable contract this return in the trade looks worse by comparison. However, if by waiting his trade value decreases or he simply walks in free agency to go see his LA wife, getting this return now is a plus. Or to put it as a multiple choice question, which of the following would you choose?

    A) Trade Penner now for future returns, including a hard-nosed D-man that fills a whole in our system.
    B) Trade Penner next deadline when his return is uncertain (but given the market value, would probably not exceed what we got now).
    C) Sign Penner long term to a large contract, say 5.5 x 5, which would secure him but eat up a lot of cap space.
    D) Have him walk one year as a UFA and receive no compensation.

    Seems pretty rational to get the best return now, even if it's not as much as we'd want.

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  69. Debakey: Teubert is the new JFJ, then?

    Fantastic.

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  70. Whereas there have been plenty of teams that have done the tear down and gone on to contention. OTT is doing it. Dudley, who built CHI into a contender, is now doing the same thing in FLA.

    This is one of my issues with attempting to be a high draft team next year. There are at least two more teams that are seeing the 'value' in putting together a cheap, non-competitive team for next year, making a bottom five finish less likely (remember the Oilers have perennial contender NYI and TOR there too).

    The full rebuild is obviously the path that has been chosen, but it may not have been at all necessary. Just by looking at who does well at this model vs who does not makes it a questionable strategy. But then when you look at what PHI did, you can see it might not at all be necessary.

    2 last things: I think management got the player they wanted, after Schenn left the table (another reason to fire them) and I have little confidence in their trading abilities anymore.

    Second, this has been a brilliant thread.

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  71. Clearly, the idea is too get lottery picks for three years so as to build depth thoughout the organization.

    Well, yeah, I think everyone gets that that's the idea. It's just that those of us who disagree with this trade think that's a bad idea.

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  72. On the plus side:

    Jacques should get the opportunity to possibly get to the prestigous 10 NHL goals in his career before being taken out behind the barn.

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  73. At first glance this trade sucks because we are all, to some extent, emotionally tied to the Oilers. The trade means a longer wait for competitiveness.

    But, as far as VALUE, the trade is fine. Nearly EVERY SINGLE NATIONAL EXPERT thinks LA paid too much.

    It in no way makes the team better, but the RETURN is pretty much on par for what you should expect.

    More losing!

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  74. Cactus: We went ''over'' market value because we traded for an old 1st rounder.

    I bet you if we had Voynov those morons would have said we got screwed.

    My problem is that they picked up someone else's problem.

    I mean cmon, you tell me no team would give a better prospect than that? Really?

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  75. wow...i'm amazed how often you all seemingly read the MSM.

    seriously.

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  76. @ Cactus

    Try again. No lipstick this time.

    Trade Penner now for future returns, including a hard-nosed D-man that POSSIBLY fills a whole in our system.

    Trade Penner next deadline when his return is uncertain (WHO KNOWS WHAT MARKET VALUE WOULD BE BUT IT LIKELY ISN'T MUCH WORSE THAN WE GOT RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS VALUE TO 80 GAMES OF PENNER...ALSO THIS SUMMER IF THE KINGS CHOKED AND DIDN'T MAKE IT, I'M WILLING TO BET LOMBARDI MIGHT PART WITH MORE VALUE AND NEGOTIATE A LITTLE MORE SERIOUSLY).

    Sign Penner long term to a large contract, say 5.5 x 5, which would secure him but eat up a lot of cap space.
    D) Have him walk one year as a UFA and receive no compensation.

    - All I can say here is I look forward to your defense of the Hemsky deal in the coming year. In or out. If we are down the mine shaft again why keep Hemsky (or assorted other spare parts)? If the return is that low why deal either over seeing what the summer may bring?

    I know I'm repeating myself. Just find it maddening that anyone even bothers trying to stand up for these guys. The last place I thought I would find excuses is here.

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  77. I mean cmon, you tell me no team would give a better prospect than that? Really?

    FPV: Taken to its logical conclusion, it seems that you are implying that there were other, better deals on the table and the Oilers mgmt deliberately ignored them to make the worse deal. No matter how incompetent a management team is, it's pretty hard to buy that assertion. As much as we wish otherwise I think it has to be accepted that no team was offering up a better prospect than what we got. Certainly not with a 1st and a conditional 2nd in the mix as well.

    Maudite: Good points but WHY ARE YOU YELLING? :(

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  78. I will concede that arguing against someone that is bound and determined in the resolve:

    We'll see what the future might bring is pointless.

    Is about as pointless as trying to argue with someone in the southern states about why Jesus would support screwing over poor people and war.


    So I guess I will rephrase the dissidents arguement so we're talking on the right frequency here:

    This may work. Sure. At any point in the last five years do you think proper moves have been intentionally made to increase that probability?

    -I would love for someone to seriously tell me yes here.

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  79. Icecastles: There was no pressure to trade him now. If no teams offered what we wanted why would we trade him now?

    We still had the summer to go over that.

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  80. This trade is a good one on many levels.

    Penner may have been popular in the dressing room, but his on-ice performance wasn't consistent.

    Oil management has been atrocious in assembling a blueline since 2006, when they used up all their magic beans to grab Tarnstrom, Spacek and Pronger. Those additions gave us depth, and was our key to winning 3 series.

    We will become a better team by having competent goaltending, and tough defenders. I believe Dubnyk can blossom into a good starter. Our current blueline is the worst group ever, so the focus on grabbing some young Sequoias is important.

    I also believe that the scouting department is an organizational strength, so why not give them the ball and see if they can score?

    We will compete next season. The rebuild isn't complete, but it's 75% there.

    All of this is moot if the management doesn't acquire some grit and at least one outstanding positional centreman in the off-season. Hall, Hemsky, and Eberle deserve some help at centre.

    A certain assistant coach with 795 career NHL games and 5 PP goals shouldn't coach the PP.

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  81. icecastles: As much as we wish otherwise I think it has to be accepted that no team was offering up a better prospect than what we got. Certainly not with a 1st and a conditional 2nd in the mix as well.


    Yeah, the real question is what prospects were being offered up WITHOUT the picks? That's what I want to know.

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  82. It shouldn't be that hard to pry Dave Bolland from Chicago this summer should it?

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  83. You know what pisses me off the most? The little moves that could have taken us a little closer to respectibility were out there this deadline.

    Bryan Allen got jettisoned for Sergei Samsanov - he'd be an absolutely servicable 4th D. Dvorak would have made a difference back here. Chris Higgins even.

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  84. Maudite,

    I really don't think that the Oilers management is messianic by any means, nor would I argue that they are free of mistakes. I'm merely trying to make the case that if "full rebuild to Cup contention" is the strategy, then this trade is defensible within that plan (and we can debate that plan all we want, but it seems to be the reality we have to work with).

    But just as I may be overly optimistic about the return here, you seem to have the same bias about what the future possibilities are. You're correct, the Kings may have crashed and burned without Penner, but perhaps they make the Conference Finals and then their desire to deal goes down. We know that this was deemed by the hockey community as good to great compensation for Penner now - I think it's reasonable to argue that the ceiling isn't too far from this point.

    -We are filling a need in our system with this prospect. He may not pan out, but between him and Plante we've got a much better chance that we'll have an NHL capable nasty d-man. No prospect is certain so in a rebuild you need volume to offset the uncertainty.

    -As for Hemsky, I think his value as a 1st line winger is higher than Penner's and is worth real effort to sign this summer and I think/hope Tambo and co. see this too. However, do you think this team is really capable of giving Hemsky and Penner (together) about $10-11M of the cap per year? Because that's the type of number it was likely going to take, given their current salaries. If you want to argue for such a scenario, by all means, but I don't think it's foolish to look at this trade as a potentially rational move in a larger plan.

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  85. Maudite: I think that's a bit of a red herring. For the past several years the Oilers have been awful and have become progressively more so. But it's only a year ago that the decision was finally made with clarity and certainty to blow it up and rebuild the slow way, via the draft. I see the pattern too and its frustrating, but I think we are making a mistake in saying that because mgmt have made bad decisions before, and they have lacked a plan in the past, that they are incapable of making good decisions or having a plan in the present/future.

    This trade may not work out in the long run. It may be a good or a bad deal based on current assessment. But the current plan, decisions and trades made should be assessed on their own merits, not via the filter of past performance.

    Because let's face it: if past performance under difference circumstances were the exclusive indicator, we could all climb on board with Lowe's perpetual argument winner, "I have five Stanley Cup rings..."

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  86. Schitzo: ATL kinda paid a high price for Dvorak.

    As for the rest there's guys we could pick up all the time. This summer will really tell if it was rebuild or just sheer incompetence.

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  87. Maudite: Is about as pointless as trying to argue with someone in the southern states about why Jesus would support screwing over poor people and war.

    I resent this remark, as a person living in a southern state... Do you mind keeping religion and politics and ad hominems out of it?

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  88. Dreger's got some interesing commens up about why Hemsky didn't move. Leads me to think that the Oilers may not end up moving the Pardubice Prince - he may end up in Oilers silks beyond next season...

    Dreger Report

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  89. I'd like to reiterate what Bloggy said. Having spent a great deal of time in the South (and being engaged to a girl from Georgia for a time), there are a lot of fantastic people down there... and I'd argue that much of the Canadian Prairies could give the South a run for its money in terms of fulfilling stereotypes. This thread has been one of the best I've read in a few years here because we've all been so respectful and focused on the relevant debate. Religion and politics are a very fast way to derail that.

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  90. I'll go a bit further (again appologies LT I've just really had it)

    Do you think

    Teuburt
    A late first and a 2nd or third

    Is better than

    Myers and say:

    Tavares
    Hedman
    Duchene
    Evander Kane
    Braydon Schenn
    Eckman Larson


    Without Penner, Myers is a given. Without Penner's career year all of the above were a lot greater probability than Teuburt panning out.

    Screw off Kevin Lowe and Co.

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  91. Sorry Boggy. I spent a lot of time down there and there are a lot of good folk. That should have read Evangelical and/or southern Baptist. Huge oversight and poor word smithing.

    LT, please remove that one as Boggy is spot on and I'm delving into douchbaggery by my lack of editing on that one.

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  92. I won't comment about any MSM consensus on the value the Oilers extracted from the Kings for Penner, but judging by the fan forums in LA and Edmonton a majority of fans seem to agree on who came out ahead.

    Over 95% of LA Kings fans here seem to think they did OK...

    http://lakingsinsider.com/2011/02/28/penner-trade-poll/

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  93. Without Penner, Myers is a given.

    @Maudite: Sorry, that is a long way from being a given. A Very long way.

    @Icecastles: SIX Stanley Cups.

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  94. Very much enjoying the various perceptions of yesterday's deal. There's a few factors that stand out for me that I feel should be considered when looking at this deal.

    1) Penner was NEVER going to resign here. He's no Souray so he's smart enough not to say anything negative about his employers that would tank his marketability. He's also smart enough to know he was universally reviled his first two years in Edmonton and then the org tried to dump him. I saw some comments from him this morning on TSN along the lines of "hopefully he'll look back in 5 years and this experience won't seem as rough in the rearview mirror." Apologies, that's paraphrasing but it doesn't speak to a happy camper that was keen on an extension.

    2) Please stop with the insinuation that his value in an year's time would be equal to what it was yesterday. A rental does not have the same value as a player with a year of value contract left. Nevermind the fact that he could get injured, have an off year next year, etc. If you know you're not resigning the player, the time to trade him was yesterday or in this offseason. Better yesterday I would think when GM's are overpaying to save their skins. It also gives your prospects an extra year of development to better coincide with the rest of the nucleus.

    3) The goal of any rebuild is to build a nucleus of roughly the same age and experience so you can take a good long run and it's not just one and done before you have to pare contracts.I like what the Oil are doing in this regard. They are stocking the shelves with good young talent at a fairly accelerated pace now. The concern with this org as always is player development and that's where the rubber will hit the road with this rebuild. I suspect quite a few posters don't trust the orgs ability to properly develop prospects and that's where a lot of the animosity arises here (i.e.Penner is seen as a known commododity and Tuebert as yet another ballyhooed prospect that they'll find a way to screw up).

    I'm in the camp that believes Tambo could've done slightly better with the return, but the timing & strategy of this I think are not so debatable IF the org can develop the prospects they're putting in the pipeline. In all honestly, if they can't there's really no rebuild strategy that is tenable and they will be shown the door by Katz if they fritter all this youthful potential away.

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  95. With the return on Penner sending the signal they are pushing the rebuild back further, I have no idea why they would bother keeping Hemsky. He'll be 30 and starting to decline by the time things are looking up (and probably passed on the depth chart by the Next Big Thing and lord knows there's only so many spots available for good players, or so I've been told).

    Like I said at BD's, the time is ripe to trade him for some kid that's projected to be the poor man's Rem Murray.

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  96. Bruce: oops! Thanks for the correction. Like Lowe, I have to count using my fingers and like Lowe, the other hand was busy from thinking about those Stanley Cups.

    Was that crass?

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  97. Given the nature of today's discussions, I thought the following article from the Onion would be appreciated.

    http://www.theonion.com/articles/openminded-man-grimly-realizes-how-much-life-hes-w,19273/

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  98. @ icecastles

    It would be a red herring if they would have went in last year with the realization that they were not a Danny Heatley or Hossa away from rounding the bend. There were driving down the road with four flats before they gave any mention that the truck might need an overhaul. They don't deserve much grace.

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  99. And this time three years from now we're going to be wailing about how hard it is to find a 240lb winger who can score 25 to complement our superstars.

    Furthermore, having said player during the developmental years to help take on the tough sledding while the rookies are protected somewhat from having to take on other top lines as much as possible (see Sunday's result against Boston for evidence of what can happen if this isn't done), doesn't that perhaps increase the probability that Hall and Eberle develop into "elite" players? Not sayin', just sayin'...

    LittleFury: As for Teubert being the new JFJ, I actually see him as being the new Smid. Despite what Tambellini said about him spending another full year in the AHL yesterday, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him make the team next year simply based on the optics related to his acquisition, a la Ladislav in fall 2006 (in hindsight, it's painfully obvious that he needed another full year in the AHL as opposed to getting feasted on in the NHL while the best the Oilers could provide in terms of "mentorship" was Steve Staios).

    Word Verification: "Dionism". Must be Pierre Maguire's religion or something. And no, I'm not making this up...

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  100. Unbelievable vitriol yesterday directed at posters here that simply do not deserve it.

    The time to trade either Hemsky or Penner was yesterday IF you were gonna trade them. Acquiring team gets 2 playoffs off their existing contract...increased value coming back.

    We spent the week asking whether Lombardi would blink and give us Schenn. Now Tambi says you would just get a hang up if you asked.

    So Tambi or Lowe or one or more of those 2 management guru's then said ok, Dean who else do you have? and Lombardi probably countered with his 12 th best prospect. Did we say no and stop at his # 2, 3 or 4 prospect on a deep list of prospects ..... nope we got talked down all the way to 7th or worse prospect (4th D man) they had.


    Dennis, I believe???, said would we accept Dustin Brown for Plante, (and presumably our 2nd and next years 3rd)? Of course we would. We would also laugh our ass off at how stupid LA was to make that deal. Oiler management just made that deal!!!

    Where I disagree with the people who consistently support Oiler management and Ducey, who is simply patient, is that you believe that when they want to (timeline set by the PLAN, patent pending) they will magically become good managers. That is illogical. It is also contradicted by the large and growing mound of evidence of bad management decisions. When they identify a hole they do a piss poor job of filling it in.

    The one thing that we all want is for the Oilers to be successful. I know I do. It is not that I lack faith in Oiler management. It is that I am absolutely certain that these gentlemen (and notwithstanding abysmal skills in their chosen profession, they may very well be nice people) are terrible at what they do.

    This trade simply demonstrates in spades that these guys are quite simply bad managers and even worse negotiators. Cap managers: Souray, JDD, Stortini ....ad nauseam

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  101. @ Bruce

    ALright then would you at least concede that we would likely have had a top ten pick in 2008 and a better than 10th overall in 2009 without Penner (ie if the clowns would have realized we weren't even close when it seemed all too obvious that was the case). I'm fine with a rebuild I see absolutely no means that anyone can justifty how these guys have proven they should be allowed to manage it.

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  102. In other news, San Jose inks Niemi to four-year contract extension.

    The deal's terms look an awful lot like the one given to Nikolai Khabibulin back on Canada Day 2009. Even though I don't think this makes sense at first glance (mostly due to the fact goalies are very available these days), when you consider Niemi is only 27 years old, is having a nice season, and was solid for the Hawks last year in their run to the cup, it's infinitely more defensible than the albatross that is the ReKhab deal.

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  103. And I know that falls to Lowe but the overwhelming body of work of version whatever the hell seems to suggest:

    Either Lowe still has a hand or that he is equally as bad.

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  104. that Niemi conytract is terrible...so its not just Oilers' GM who is stupid

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  105. do i have to do word verification everytime before posting?? damn

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  106. ...you believe that when they want to (timeline set by the PLAN, patent pending) they will magically become good managers.

    I don't see anyone making this argument, or even the non-hyperbolic version of it that would have made your point a little less open to ridicule.

    Tambelini was not the General Manager over that entire period. And even when he took the title, he hadn't really taken the reins yet. Toonces is slow and I would argue not nearly aggressive enough, but I maintain that if anything is illogical, it is judging him based on the performance of a completely different GM.

    That said, I suppose there could be an argument made for magically getting better... they do enjoy trading for magic beans, after all.

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. "Lowetide’s as respected an analyst of the Oilers as anyone else in the mainstream media"

    For the record,
    Id say LT is far more respected, albeit Matheson has tenure, than any other 'Oilers writer'. period.

    Dellow, Willis, etc..

    I may not dig on Poulliot and I do agree that LT's "description of Colten Teubert that is probably fairly described as “charitable.”"

    But deserving of a lecture, I think not...

    -------------

    Ps. seems like Katz is being used as a scapegoat..

    Anyone have a good argument for how many 1st overalls are enough?.. the current philosophy seems to be you can never have enough...

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  109. It's time to assess Teubert the prospect a little. Here are the dmen from his class with draft position and NHL games played:

    2.Drew Doughty-220
    3.Zach Bogosian-180
    4.Alex Pietrangelo-76
    5.Luke Schenn-225
    12.Tyler Myers-141
    13.Colten Teubert-ZERO
    15. Erik Karlsson- 119
    17. Jake Gardiner- ZERO
    19. Luca Sbisa- 96
    20. Michael Del Zotto- 127
    23. Tyler Cuma- ZERO
    27. John Carlson- 85
    32. Vyachaslav Voinov- ZERO
    others....
    53. Travis Hamonic- 43
    186. Jason Demers- 108

    Here's what I take from this.

    a) the line that defensemen take longer to develop is proving untrue. 75% of the first rounders are already playing A TON in the NHL.
    b) on the other hand, the 100+ defensmen drafted outside the first round are not really breaking through so there has to be a mix of projects in there...some will turn out and most won't...but only Demers is established 2.5 years later.
    c) the LA Kings defense is a tough nut to crack. By all accounts, Voinov is a terrific prospect yet his games played is still at zero.

    Here's the optimistic view point. Teubert is right at the tail end of an incredible run of defensemen. Doughty, Bogo, Pietrangelo, Schenn, Myers and Karlsson are all franchise cornerstones. Teubert wasn't considered a reach at the time and was expected to slot in right around there. All these other got their opportunity and once they did they never looked back. The price for a "0 games in the NHL prospect" is reasonable. The price for a 20 year old, cornerstone defensemen is infinity because they never get traded.

    Due to injury, need for "polishing" and the LA Kings depth chart Colten Teubert just hasn't been given the opportunity. Contending teams just don't play multiple teenagers on their blueline. Doughty is the King but he's not Superman and you need Rob Scuderis all around him for that "once-a-game" blunder. Jack Johnson is their other top defensmen and he's just now getting over his stupid kid mistakes. The Kings play 2 kids in huge roles (Doughty, Johnson) and have cushioned that with three veterens (Scuderi, Greene and Mitchell). So they've gone with Muzzin and Martinez ahead of Teubert (or Voinov or Hickey)? So what, they're a little older and aren't going to cost you wins like a 19/20 year old Teubert. Remember Matt Greene at that age. Ugh.

    Add to that, his scouting report said "the Kings decided he was worth the gamble, even though he was a raw talent who was going to need a good deal of polishing before he could make the jump to the NHL" and it is to be expected he'd be behind the slick, smooth and mostly offensive players picked around him (Karlsson, Carlson, Pietrangelo etc.). He's not even 21 yet, he's immediately the best defensive prospect in the Oilers system, will make the Oilers next year and will remain a fixture for the best part of the decade.

    (continued)

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  110. Pessimistic viewpoint

    Elite defensive prospects now play in the NHL at 18 or 19 and at the very least, dominate the AHL by 20 so that they can't be left down there and Teubert hasn't done that. The mistake was made on draft day. Karlsson, Carlson or Del Zotto were the right picks there if you needed defense. Teubert slots in nicely with the second rounders, most of whom have some warts to work out before they'll get their shot. Golubef, Sauve, Ness, Wiercoch, Schultz, Robak, Scandella. Certainly not write-offs but what can be written off is any chance Teubert is a franchise cornerstone because if you remove his draft pedigree he's Cody Golubef and no one is trading Dustin Penner for Cody Golubef.

    -----------------------------------

    I actually think both viewpoints are accurate. I'm not sure many 20 year olds crack the depth chart as I've outlined it above for a team that has designs on winning the Cup. Certainly Pietrangelo and Bogosian would make that roster. Schenn probably too. Not so sure about Karlsson or Carlson and I'd bet Del Zotto wouldn't. So I do think there's a possibility this guy could be a player with similar value to those three listed above. Would we move Dustin Penner for Erik Karlsson, the 20th overall and a 3rd. Probably would.

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  111. @Maudite: Let me elaborate.

    1) There is absolutely no guarantee that the Oilers would have picked the same player in the same spot as Buffalo did with the Penner compensatory pick.

    2) The Edmonton Oilers squad that finished 19th overall in 2007-08 and thus qualified for the 12th overall pick, was a team that included Dustin Penner. If they hadn't have had Penner they would have likely finished lower in the standings. Even accepting your speculative point that they could have picked the same guy in the same draft number, that guy still could have been Alex Pietrangelo or Mikkel Boedker, there's no way to tell.

    3) In real life that #12 pick was such a hot commodity it got traded TWICE more after it was awarded to Anaheim. Brian Burke, a hockey genius by his own admission, parlayed said pick into "three assets", the numbers 17, 35, and 39 picks. He then used those picks to select Blake Gardiner, Nicolas Deschamps, and Eric O'Dell. Early days yet, but those guys have played a grand total of 0 NHL GP to this point, while Dustin Penner has played over 300 GP since Burkie let him walk, and Tyler Myers over 140 GP since Buffalo picked him with that #12 choice. Let's not point fingers and laugh at Burkie - this is after all a civilized thread - let's just say that "asset management" problems are not restricted to Edmonton.

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  112. What yesterday comes down to is this: -Do you think the long-term rebuild is the way to go? If yes, then trade is defensible. If no, then the trade is short-selling a valuable asset that can get you back to the show.

    The management has no desire to get back to the playoffs, but with the salary space, the nucleus that is there and some judicious FA moves, it is not out of reach. The necessity to have another season like this one (without a promise of a top draft selection - see FLA/OTT/NYI/TOR) seems foolish.

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  113. Icecastles

    That is the entire basis of giving them a free pass now. When it matters, in the future, they will get it right.

    Tambellini signed a bad long term goaler (MVP, though) He traded for a BAD penalty killing, faceoff 3rd line center. Bad PP specialist. Got top dollar moving out Souray. Worried unnecessarily about JDD getting picked off the waiver wire: FFS Curtis McElleheny got snapped up.

    But when he wants to, he will be good. That is certainly not how it works in my business. Nor any other businesses that I can think of....maybe yours?

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  114. The Other John: I've already stated that I don't see anyone making this argument, so I really don't understand your adherence to rebutting it. Moving on...

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  115. Tencer...

    Magnus Paajarvi will slot in for Dustin Penner with Horcoff and Hemsky. Hall, Cogliano and Eberle stay together. Gerber will start in goal.

    Looks like Gagner takes the biggest immediate hit from the Penner trade.

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  116. Knighttown - thank you for that.

    After accepting the reality that we haven't hit rock bottom yet, what I now want is to know more about the pick we received (other than his development has been disappointing). So thanks for the breakdown.

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  117. Bookie:

    Thanks for that onion link..
    Hilarious..

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  118. So, Gagner between Omark and Jones? Reddox? JFJ?

    Either way, egads.

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  119. Trade doesn't really bother me one way or the other. I liked Penner as he was pretty laissez faire about hockey. Just like I am about the Oilers.

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  120. So cogs between 4 & 14 wasn't just a pump and dump?

    :(

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  121. Knighttown

    Thanks for insight. Saw the games played from 2008 draft last night and it was disquieting.

    If one was believed the optimistic
    view (training camp injury, LA defense hard to break into) wouldn't it make sense to bring him up to the Oilers now and get him 20 games from here to the end of the season for seasoning?

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  122. Cogs is there to make sure the two wonder kids don't get bit numbers that will cost the Oilers on their second contracts. ;)

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  123. Schitzo - I guess no one liked what Cogliano was shoveling. Not even Bryan Murray! Damn!

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  124. So cogs between 4 & 14 wasn't just a pump and dump?

    All pump and no dump... I think they have medication for that.

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  125. Great read and a great thread.

    Like the fact that LT is willing to hold up Katz to scrutiny (not sure any of us can hold him accountable as long as folks keep buying tickets and beer at the games).

    Have to feel for Gagner that he's being left to Omark/Jones while Cogs is being given the chance to continue to resurrect his career between Hall and Eberle.

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  126. I remember last year with THE CAPTAIN had a real shitty game and said something along the lines of "Well the building is full every night so we must be doing something right."

    I miss Moreau.

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  127. Has anyone one told us specifically what is wrong with Peckham? I saw he was injured from the fight with Horton but Sportsnet didn't show the replay or anything so I didn't see it. Wrist injury again?

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  128. Maybe the pump isn't done yet. If cogs finishes out the year with a flourish perhaps his perceived value comes around. Might be eyeing draft time to pull something out for him and hopiing he strings together a 40 point type season here.

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  129. Ducey: give me the date when you give it up and say this trade didn't work? I - along with others - waited out the guys who liked the Pronger and Smyth deals and I can wait you out too if that's what it takes:)

    We got the 4th or 5th D prospect back and a shitty first round pick in a year where the draft isn't that deep.

    So you give me the time and place when you think this deal can finally be judged. And oh how I love when people cling to that broken limb because I'm always on the ground laughing when they fall:)

    As for the people who are talking about Lowe and Co using all this cap space in the summer, how about this.

    We traded for another D that's not ready and even the Puppet said yesterday he might have to spend Another full year in the A.

    LT doesn't think I respect him - but I do and I think he's a good fellow and his blog is great - but he's a fellow who every year expects us to sign a third line centre and address all the other holes that have been around longer than prostitution.

    And yet it never happens. But he still believes and so do a lot of people and I guess I'm a burden of proof guy.

    So, we make this trade yesterday and now we're a lottery team for this year and next. And Katz has also lowered the prices of season tickets.

    Does that sound like an org that's gonna use cap space?

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  130. Schitzo,

    The move that killed me was Dennis Wideman for a 3rd and a minor leaguer.

    Under contract for another year at just under 4MM. RH Dman who can play toughs (although better suited to 2nd pair) and would be a good fit next to 6.

    All,

    Stop posting that Penner would never re-sign.

    You don't know that, so stop stating it as fact. Penner stated that they never approached him to ask and sounded open to the idea.

    Its not a given either way so stop using it.

    Also,

    Gerber gets the start.

    Nice to see the best goalie in the Oiler system get another NHL start.

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  131. TheCaptainEthanMoreau: Only played 23 games so far this season. -6 and 5 points in those games. Of course his real value comes from helping the crew load for road trips: real efficient at throwing teammates under the bus.

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  132. It's obvious that we can't expect management to acquire veterans to push us to the playoffs, so the kids are going to have to elevate their game to get us there.

    It may take longer that way, but IMO we'd be better off in the long run, other that the part about the salary clock ticking...

    Besides with Lander, Vande Velde and Hartikinen, we could already have our third line next fall.

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  133. WG, that Dennis Wideman trade still makes me shake my head. WTF was that all about? Together with the Frolik + top goaltending prospect outside NA thing makes me think that Chicago did the right thing getting rid of Tallon.

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  134. I think that it comes down to whether or not you believe in Lowe and Tambellini or not.

    BDHS: This likely cuts to the nub of the matter. Those who don't believe in Lowebellini - and they are legion around here - seem to hate every major move these guys make, to wit:

    OUT: Smyth
    IN: Three assets
    Reaction: Hate the move

    OUT: Three assets
    IN: Penner
    Reaction: Hate the move

    OUT: Penner
    IN: Three assets
    Reaction: Hate the move

    I know I'm oversimplifying and by no means do I wish to tar everybody with that brush, but obviously something changed between Penner's arrival and departure to moderate the hatred of at least that deal. Maybe something will happen between now and Teubert's emergence as a perennial Norris Trophy winner to moderate the reaction to this one.

    I'm being facetious of course - that was meant to lighten the mood, not make blood boil - I'm just saying that years of hard personal experience over-reacting to trades has taught me to withhold my judgement for awhile, or at least be measured about it. I was a pretty staunch supporter of Penner so I'm not real happy about this one, but this morning I'm 40/60 on it but not 0/100.

    Moreover, while I'm not a "believer" in Tambellini I don't think he's the biggest idiot out there either. He gets criticized for evaluating, and he gets criticized for making a move because it always seems to be the wrong move. Even today after pulling the trigger on yesterday's biggest trade in the NHL I'm still reading references to Mr. Dithers and it frankly puzzles me. He's thrown his lot in with the long-term rebuild, and while I can understand and indeed empathize with fans' unhappiness about that, I don't see it as dithering.

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  135. Anyone else having issues getting on to Tyler's site?

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  136. I guess Peckham is a concussion problem (damn) and not a wrist injury.

    Speaking of wrist injuries... Gregor has an interview up that has some insight on Teuberts injury situation. It's kind of scary to hear that he plays or played with a "support mechanism" on his wrist.

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  137. Cogs is there to make sure the two wonder kids don't get bit numbers that will cost the Oilers on their second contracts. ;)

    Ha!

    v3.0 tried to peddle 13 at the draft last year for a 1st. My guess is that he peddles 13 + LA 1st + ? to get another in the top 10.

    KT,

    You always make sense and are even tempered. Great stuff.

    Dennis,

    Oilers have 14 players signed for next year 36.6MM.

    My guess is they come in at 51MM, or about 10MM below the cap.

    Not setting a line, just a guess.

    kinger, (if you are there)

    Our bet is whether or not 83 re-signs right? I still feel good about it.

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  138. NHL players say Edmonton is the worst place in the league to play.

    What's the use of having cap space again?


    PS: Looking forward to the day Oilers mgmt blames bloggers for this perpetually lousy hockey team.

    PPS: Flames fans LOVE Kevin Lowe.

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  139. Excellent post, Bruce. You are always good for some perspective and measured optimism. Even if you do consort with Mangalores.

    I would just like to thank everyone for ensuring that I get next to nothing accomplished today... this has to be the highest word count (and the most frequent non-porn usage of the word "rub") I've ever seen on a single comment page and we're only at 136 posts. :)

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  140. Q-Bert quote from the Journal:


    “This is just great news,” (Teubert)continued. “The Kings had a strong roster with a lot of depth. For me, to be going to the Oilers, and having an opportunity to be a part of that organization is exciting.


    Translation: "I'm stoked to be going to a team that's so bad I might actually get a shot at cracking the roster."

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  141. Nothing screams "rebuild" and "looking to the future" any louder than starting a 36-year-old goalie who ranks fourth on the organizational depth chart (pay scale edition).

    And I'm happy as hell to hear it. I've been rooting pretty hard for Gerber this year as my underdog-with-a-shot; he got one earlier chance and played two outstanding games, and now he gets another. In between times he's kept his yap shut and responded like a true professional while giving OKC excellent goaltending.

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  142. LittleFury - From my experience, the error that is coming up at his site is not a good one.

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  143. Some have to have hope or an optimistic, glass half full, view of things. Otherwise it isn't any fun to follow. For me this has been reduced to 1. hoping the oilers can turn it around, or 2. hoping bettman moves a team back to winnipeg. I'm getting the sense 2 will happen before 1.

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  144. Too much traffic today lads...gonna shift at some point.

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  145. Bruce: I supported the Penner RFA signing.

    WG: Yeah, people want to believe 27 wouldn't have resigned because then they believe he HAD to be dealt.

    And like I said, how would everyone react if we picked up Dustin Brown for Alex Plante plus comparable draft picks?

    People here were laughing last week when Neal was moved for Gologoski, for instance.

    But, oh no, when you get more than one asset there's a better chance for things working out, right?

    Well, no not really.

    And I didn't dislike Pronger and Smyth being traded because of their being multiple assets.

    I disliked it because the assets looked bad right out of the box and/or it wasn't the shining stars of the opposite org.

    Lupul when Perry and Getzlaf were kicking around. Nilsson and Omarra from the Isles. Teubert from the Kings.

    Real players for magic beans.

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  146. Tyler: I thought maybe you finally got a visit from Pat Laforge and his hired goons.

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  147. LF: nothing beats the personal touch of hired goods.

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  148. With all due respect Bruce, "N assets" is basically a punchline at this point. In addition to grossly overstating the reaction to these moves (I wrote about all three and I was not in a majority until this trade), you're leaving out the context.

    CONTEXT: Oilers spend a bunch of money on the supplementary pieces of their team, dick Smyth around, don't get a deal and grab what turned out to be a handful of crap in a panic
    OUT: Smyth
    IN: Three assets
    Reaction: Hate the move

    CONTEXT: Team is clearly a festering disaster with all sorts of overpaid supplementary parts that's years from competing and could well pick in the lottery; one mid level first line forward won't make a difference, nor will the broken down defenceman who came to town at the same time
    OUT: Three assets
    IN: Penner
    Reaction: Hate the move

    CONTEXT: Team has decided to start burning daylight on the contracts of the young prospects and has sucked indefinitely. Team decides to throw away any hope of being competitive in 2011-12 in exchange for a question mark prospect, a crappy first round pick and a conditional pick in 2012, not much gain on what they might reasonably have expected in 2012 if things hadn't gone well.
    OUT: Penner
    IN: Three assets
    Reaction: Hate the move

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  149. Bruce

    Agree with you re Gerber..... hope he kicks ass.

    Re Smytty deal. Wasn't the magic beans from NYI a bit like Tuebert: not meeting or exceeding expectations at that time? Would not one of the lesson's of that trade then be, if you are learning as you move forward, its not the quantitiy of the prospects coming back but the importance of ensuring the quality.

    LT is the purpose of the word verification to minimize drunk posting late at night?

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  150. LT, oh god no.

    Sorry about the misunderstanding but definitely not, the witchhunts and agenda comment was aimed at others.

    I have never known you to engage in such behaviour. Your treatment of players, management, commenters, etc has always been typified by an open mind and a graciousness beyond belief.

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  151. Excellent post, Bruce

    Not sure whether you're referring to my "Burkie is an idiot" post or my "Tambi is not (necessarily) an idiot" post, but either way, thanks. :)

    When it comes to rooting for my Oilers, measured optimism is a key ingredient, along with a dollop of gallows humour and several pecks of old-fashioned masochism. (That last used to be machismo, but the letters got all scrambled up some time in the early '90s.)

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  152. Just a few things to throw out there.

    Do you:

    - believe in Lowe and his puppet being able to get things done when this magical year rolls around where they try to win?

    - do you believe in the value 27 had to this club?

    - do you believe he would never have signed here?

    - do you believe in the value of first round picks in their 20's and 3rd round picks in the 80's?

    - do you believe that McGregor is never gonna fuck up?

    - do you think Teubert's anything more than Plante or any of those supposedly hard rock D that always get to hide behind vanilla numbers because their "true value" is rarely seen.

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  153. Team decides to throw away any hope of being competitive in 2011-12 in exchange for a question mark prospect, a crappy first round pick and a conditional pick in 2012...

    There was still hope?

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  154. Your treatment of players, management, commenters, etc has always been typified by an open mind and a graciousness beyond belief.

    Unless he's talking about Montreal. ;)
    (I kid, I kid)

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  156. love it Dennis. You're back in your 2004 form.

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  157. Dennis said...

    And like I said, how would everyone react if we picked up Dustin Brown for Alex Plante plus comparable draft picks?


    I think most people would be thrilled at the immediate improvement to the team. (But lets call Brown a 28yo Brown to make it even, shall we?)

    And then I think, after the intial thrill wears off, people would be asking why did we just give up some pieces of the future to take this guy on now while in the midst of a rebuild.

    As Tambi said, this Penner deal is not the [kind of] trade he would make in 5 years.

    Nor is the deal you proposed especially beneficial now.

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  158. 89 Between Jones and brule while 13 centers 4 and 14. WTF did Samwise do to Renney to deserve this?

    Dennis give it up, any time you can trade your leading goal scorer for about a 10% chance that the return will achieve the same level of impact well thats a deal you just have to make.

    Elgin Baylor built a 15 year career as Clippers GM with this same strategy and now 2 decades later they have Blake griffen so you know it works.

    Near as I can figure, the goal here is to build the HF wet dream of the entire roster being made up of 1st rd picks who gives a shit if they can play or not. Pavel brendel is probably getting ready to sign a deal as we speak.

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  159. love it Dennis. You're back in your 2004 form.

    I don't even care if I agree with Dennis or not right now... his righteous indignation makes for fantastic reading. I can almost picture his face red and his jaw clenched as he furiously pounds away at the keyboard. Beauty.

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  160. With 149 comments (so far. probably 170 by the time I'm done typing), my two cents really make no difference. But I'll give it anyways....

    I'm a little surprised at the proportion of those posters that hate this trade.

    How good do you believe Penner really is??? He wasn't very consistent, took a lot of shifts and complete games off, played a pretty soft game for a guy his size, and seemed to many, including me, to have a lack of passion for winning. He had a heck of a time staying above the third line for the first couple years and I don't blame that fact on just MacT. I really don't think he made anyone around him into better players. Conversely, I think its Penner that benefits from quality linemates more than others benefit from playing with Penner. This was a thirtieth place team WITH Penner, not DESPITE Penner.

    Did we deserve more of a return for Penner than what Ottawa got for Fisher? No.

    All that being said, I actually like Penner and there is a hole that will take a while for someone to fill. Thats the only part of the trade that I don't like. But did we get fair value? In my opinion, yes. Would I have made the trade if I was GM? Maybe not that particular trade but I certainly would not have expected any more return than what Tambellini got.

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  161. I know it's speculation but a person I am in school with used to play hockey in the States and apparently knows the guy that stays in Penner's house in Anaheim over the winter. Apparently, he said to him that there was no way he was going to resign in Edmonton. Hear say to the fullest and I know it would be idiotic to believe this in any sort of credible way, but at least last night it made me feel a little better.

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  162. Horton was traded for a mid first.Others were involved but really it was horton for a pick.Picks are the currency of the nhl;The oilers are rich.Teams gear for the playoffs then dump good players for picks in the summer to get cap room.Ladd,Buffalfabet,Eager,were dumped last year.Our pick could turn into JVR or Colburn.This was a good trade now, when the oil are close we trade A.Plante + for good players on bad teams.

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  163. I'm hoping Tambellini doesn't make a move like this in five years. That would mean he still has a job as an NHL GM.

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  164. What is interesting is the majority of fans from other teams think Edmonton won the deal.

    So either the majority of other fan bases are wrong or the majority of Edmonton fans are wrong.

    Keep in mind that the majority of Oiler fans also thought Shawn Horcoff was a top 20 center at one point (lol).

    I know which side I'm betting on.

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  165. So in conclusion:

    We're bad. Getting something for one of the games best producing LW's has to be good enough because the likes of Mcquire and Mclean say it is so. We're going to continue to be bad for the forseeable future. Hopefully, someday we will not be bad. Not certain when someday will be but maybe it's three years from now...

    Dither's is still dithers and there is no getting around that.
    -Sounds like he dithered away the possibility of even talking to DP about extending
    -Dithered away any additional top up bodies away at the deadline
    -Dithered away value on Hemsky's contract (no one can convince me he'd be crazy enough to not want to see what else is out there)

    2 years of Jones @ 2 mill per and another first rounder/2nd tier prospect (with some periphary picks) for Hemsky rental coming on up. Good times are coming...?

    I will stop now.

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  166. IC: It's not like that, per se.

    It just that it sucks being right so much of the time and telling people to get out of the haunted house yet they still wind up murdered;)

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  167. @Dennis: I'm with you in that I liked the Penner signing and didn't like either the Penner or Smyth departures. I generally like being the team getting the best player in the exchange.

    @mc79hockey:

    CONTEXT: Team is clearly a festering disaster with all sorts of overpaid supplementary parts that's years from competing and could well pick in the lottery; one mid level first line forward won't make a difference, nor will the broken down defenceman who came to town at the same time

    You see, here's where you and I have a disconnect. One "mid level first line forward" could desribe Ryan Smyth as easily as Dustin Penner; the latter clearly replaced the former except was six years younger, $2 MM cheaper, way bigger and much healthier.

    Since the trade Smytty has scored 87 goals (for three teams), since the signing Penner has scored 93. Yet the trade of Smytty was a mistake, and the signing of Penner was a mistake.

    As for the "broken down defenceman" you predictably included, he was coming off a season where he was first among NHL defencemen in goals and third in points. No argument that he was a major health risk, but he wasn't exactly broken down at that point.

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  168. Spoiler: you're not even being sensible and there's not point in arguing with you.

    Which I won't unless you post something else that's really silly:)

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  169. Frelbo: I take it you're a "saw him good" type. I was that way when I started posting here. It doesn't take long to come around.

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  170. So in conclusion:

    Let's not be saying that, its only 1pm MST. Hours to go before we see how truly badly the team plays tonight!

    And with MC, Dennis, Bruce, etc all hammering away at each other, this is a truly entertaining thread.

    Word Verification: Verla (a girl who would never date me in high school)

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  171. In conclusion?! You must be new around here, this conversation never ever reaches its conclusion.

    At least, I hope it doesn't. :)

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  172. Icecastles,

    Funny how that happens.

    And, is it actually colder in Calgary today than the 'Peg? If so, you guys got some work to do.

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  173. Dennis, thank god you're here. Your posts are so foolish, mine look coldly rational in comparison.

    Wow, this game is fun. I never knew arguing could be so easy.

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  174. Dennis said...

    And like I said, how would everyone react if we picked up Dustin Brown for Alex Plante plus comparable draft picks?


    I have e-mailed Bob Stauffer with this question. Lets see if he addresses it.

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  175. Maudite: I'm gonna blow a lot of people's minds here.

    Pierre MacGuire doesn't know as much about hockey as he thinks he doesn.

    There's 10 guys here that I can name off the top of my head that know the Oilers much better than Pierre does.

    So if that's true for a fucking Canadian team then how much do you think he knows about certain American teams and it's players and prospects?

    I don't need Pierre Macguire to tell me what kind of players you get in the late 20's in a shitty draft or in the 80's either. And I don't think him to tell me about advanced stats and what that says about 27. Or just how far down the depth chart is Teubert.

    I like Matt Greene for instance - I didn't used to and I think now he's being paid too much for a 5th dman but that's another post for another time - but I wouldn't deal 27 for Matt Greene and maybe Lombardi didn't go to the Kevin Pendergast school of bullshitting but the best comparison he could make for Teubert was Matt Greene.

    If it takes Teubert as long as it took Matt Greene to be Matt Greene then two things will have happened by then.

    1. 4 and 14 will be making a mint by then.

    2. Teubert still won't be anything more than a 5th dman.

    so, you know, we've got that going for us.

    You either read the cards and fold or you keep believing that the Oilers will be good someday and make the right decisions just because you want them to.

    And like I said, don't underestimate the new narrative of MacGregor as the christ figure. I have noticed that Stauffer says it more and more these days and you know how much say he has.

    and yesterday all the Puppet kept saying was, Stu is excited because he has more bullets.

    So, keep an eye out for that spin if you like.

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  176. Bar Qu: I grew up in the Northwest Territories (Sachs Harbour on an Island in the Arctic Ocean) so you're all tropical pussies as far as I'm concerned. :)

    But yeah it's a few degrees warmer here today, though the 50km/h wind isn't making it feel all that lovely out. Should have called it Windy-peg.

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  177. IC: I've got years of bad trades and missing the playoffs on my side.

    what do you have?

    hope for the 2015 season?:)

    The time when Nilsson and Omarra and Lupul and Smid work out is when my opinions are foolish.

    But until that happens I'm not foolish.

    I'm just right:)

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  178. What is interesting is the majority of fans from other teams think Edmonton won the deal.

    So either the majority of other fan bases are wrong or the majority of Edmonton fans are wrong.


    This is a key element in the trade. Those of us who saw Penner and knew of his impact on the game saw him as nearing the value of Hemsky. The rest of the NHL however has a much more muted perception of him.

    I think he is a great player, but if others don't believe that, it does lower the return that is possible.

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  179. As for Cogs playing between the future, he is the type of player to be moved in the offseason. I'm desperately hoping a brule/cogs and LA's first gets something of value.

    I'm a fan for his effort, but Cogs obviously isn't getting the tryout at bottom 6 anymore, so I don't know how he can fit on this team going forward.

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  180. I've got years of bad trades and missing the playoffs on my side. what do you have?

    Well, the ability to read carefully is one thing. I was agreeing with your viewpoint. I'm starting to wonder if you think you're in a real haunted house over there and are seeing enemies at every turn.

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  181. Dustin Brown 232 hits
    Dustin Penner 63 hits

    Might as well compare Sam Gagner to Milan Lucic.

    And I'm sure if Lowe picked up Brown for picks the usual suspects would complain about going in two directions at once.

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  182. Well, Traktor, the Kings fans at Copper N Blue's sister station in The Angels
    are all doing cartrwheels over this one.

    Gave up next to nuthin' for a big, goal-scoring left winger.

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  183. I like Matt Greene for instance - I didn't used to and I think now he's being paid too much for a 5th dman but that's another post for another time - but I wouldn't deal 27 for Matt Greene and maybe Lombardi didn't go to the Kevin Pendergast school of bullshitting but the best comparison he could make for Teubert was Matt Greene.

    Dennis, you are oversimplifying things. Would you trade 1.3 years of Penner for 5-6 years of Matt Green? What about if a 1st round draft pick was thrown in.

    When you ignore 2/3 (or more) of the trade return (the picks) and you forget all about the existence of contracts, then it is easy to say the Oilers lose the trade by trading a 30 goal scorer for a 20 year old AHL player. Forgetting about the details makes life easier.

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  184. book¡e: You're treating a pile of bullshit Traktor wrote like it was part of a real discussion. Come on!

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  185. Bookie: if that's the case then you keep him because at least You know how valuable he is.

    And I see all these people saying let's trade 27 or 83 because we're a 30th place team with them.

    Well I think the D corps might have a little something to do with that. And the PK.

    and the netminding.

    and this trade did nothing to address that for this year or next.

    anyway, it's a good thread and a good bit of fun back and forth:)

    The Oilers brass are stupid and make the same mistakes over and here but it's almost like the fans who believe in them come back and visit the same locations to buy their magic beans but when they get there the name of the store has been changed so they always think the beans will work this time.

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  186. I just don't get all of the negativity.....

    What more were you expecting the team to get for Penner?

    Should they have waited 12 months then traded him and hope that he was even more valuable and not hurt?

    Did you want Penner to play here until he was 35? What would that have cost? Would he have taken the offer?

    Is he anything more than a 50-60 point coke machine?

    Do you remember a time when everyone was up in arms that he became an Oiler?

    /shakes head

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  187. IC: I wasn't directing it towards you.

    I was just commenting on how it happens over and over again and people keep falling for it.

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  189. @The other John: Unlike Dennis :) I'm not one to constantly flog my work on other sites, but fans of Martin Gerber might enjoy this interview I had with him when the Barons were in Calgary ten days ago. (You have to scroll past the Khabibulin screed to get to it. :)

    I was already a fan before that conversation but was a bigger one at the end of that day. He played a helluva game that night, too.

    (@Dennis: j.k. You know I love your scoring chance work.)

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  190. IC: meaning I meant that other thing for Spoiler:)

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  191. Understood Dennis, thanks for the clarification. So long as you know that I do have respect for deep analysis and advanced stats... I was a saw him good fellow when I got here, but you bastards have reformed me.

    Although I might add that if one don't have hope, I honestly, truly wonder why they would follow the sport/team. If this isn't about enjoyment then why bother with something that just makes you angry/frustrated? (that's rhetorical - I know the people on this board love hockey and the Oilers and have a deeper appreciation for it than the bandwagon jumpers who only follow the game when their team is winning.)

    Hope isn't the same as blind optimism, which perhaps is what you meant. I have the former, not so much of the latter. My optimism isn't blind... just myopic. :)

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  192. I find it surprising that almost no one is talking about what it would have cost to re-sign both Penner and Hemsky in the next 12 months (something that's come up on Oilers boards and blogs over the last few months). In a perfect world, it would be fantastic to retain the services of both these players, but given the money already invest in guys like Horcoff and the cap flexibility needed to keep the young guns, could Edmonton have made the money work? I'm not sure they could, but I'm curious if any of you have gamed out a scenario where this would have worked.

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  193. "This is a key element in the trade. Those of us who saw Penner and knew of his impact on the game saw him as nearing the value of Hemsky. The rest of the NHL however has a much more muted perception of him.

    I think he is a great player, but if others don't believe that, it does lower the return that is possible."

    Keep in mind that spam bloggers like Zona think Sam Gagner is as good a prospect as Taylor Hall (voted tied for #1 prospect lol).

    Zona compared Sam Gagner to Bobby Clarke! haha

    Then there is LT who thinks Sam Gagner is the next Doug Gilmour.

    Sorry but I think I will go with the opinions of fans that live outside the Oiler sub system

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  194. Bruce: you, sir, can go to hell!:)

    Bookie: that's not entirely true. I am out in front saying that a pick in the 20's in the shitty draft doesn't look all that great.

    The 3rd isn't worth talking about unless you turn it into something real.

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  196. Pretty sure I just saw Barry Trotz out for lunch.

    You know you're a hockey junkie when you think that's cool.

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  197. IC: well, honestly, if the Expos were still around I would be wondering about 4th and 5th starters now and 3rd and 4th options out of the bullpen:)

    Another thing I think is interesting about being an Oilers fan is the relationship the media has with the fans and team.

    There's a bunch of us like Ty and Cam etc etc - WG and KT and PDO and Oilswell when he was around and of course Vic - who just like to see how much spin is heaped on behalf of the team.

    I find it captivating that bad trade after bad trade is made and only John Short has the balls to call it down the middle.

    Everyone else is waiting for the capspace to be used or for Alexei Mihknov to come in off his tractor for supper.

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  198. I think he is a great player, but if others don't believe that, it does lower the return that is possible.

    I think that's true, but I also think that's the reason you don't move him.

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  199. Dennis,

    Do you agree that the Oilers should have started the rebuild with the Pronger trade? If so... Why?

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  200. Spoiler: It was certainly a time of transition but I'd have to go look at the roster and see what the right move would have been.

    Though, at first blush and old memory I would say that with all of 10-83-Stoll and Torres and parts around I think the move was to get a real player for Pronger and then go out and sign a real defenseman.

    So, no, I don't think it was time to rebuild then.

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