Oiler fans love that player type. Jason Smith remains a very popular figure and the first Oiler of this variety is so loved the organization still retains him in a prominent role.
What do we know about Colten Teubert?
- How good is he? Teubert at this time is a depth defender in the American Hockey League. That's a typical position for a 20-year old rookie pro. A quick glance at the boxscores for Manchester suggests he was playing on the third pairing with Andrew Campbell, although he did play some with Voynov in the week before the deadline.
- What else? An impressive resume, he was an outstanding junior leading up to the draft. Among other things: Earned a silver medal for Team Canada at the 2010 World Junior Championships. Collected one point (0-1=1) and a plus-5 rating in six games during the tournament. Earned a gold medal at the 2009 World Junior Championships. Collected zero points (0-0=0) in six games during the tournament. Earned a gold medal for Canada at the 2008 World U18 Championship. Recorded one point (0-1=1), 30 penalty minutes and a plus-8 rating in seven games during the tournament.
- What does his AHL coach say about him? Jason Gregor had a nice article up the other day about Teubert will a quick interview from his AHL coach. It is here. One quote of interest from coach Mark Morris: "Like most guys who enter the American Hockey League, the biggest challenge is making the reads. He is a strong skater, so if he makes a poor read he has the ability to eat up ground and shut people down. What I like about him is that he seems to get a piece of somebody every time he is on the ice, and he is a hard guy to play against. At times when he handles the puck, he might not make the best choice, but he keeps the game fairly simple. He is an old school defenceman in my books; the type of guy that everybody will appreciate over the course of time.He's not going to wow you in the beginning, but I think over time he will prove that he is a force to be reckoned with and he can be a reliable, dependable defender."
- Was he playing better at the trade deadline? The numbers suggest as much. He was 10gp, 1-4-5 +5 in February, 29gp, 1-4-5 +2 in previous months. He's never going to deliver a lot of offense.
- Still, plus 7 is pretty good? Manchester is 143-124 at even strength this season (+19) so Teubert's +7 is about what we should expect. His plus minus ranks 5th among defensemen on the team.
- Do Oiler fans hate him? No. There's a tremendous amount of disappointment on 2 fronts. First, the Dustin Penner trade is devastating because we're being sentenced to a long term rebuild. I don't remember anyone saying the starting point for the rebuild was Taylor Hall's selection and that is a sour lemon for any fan (especially guys like me who are running out of race track). Also, the return is miles away from helping and the chances of one or more of the assets acquired going sideways is great.
- Is Teubert more valuable than LAK's first round pick? No. Chances are the Oilers use that pick to trade up and grab a Dougie Hamilton or Duncan Siemens, but even if it's a 18-25 pick that selection will have more value.
- Where would you rank Teubert on your top 20? The revised top 20 (taking out Hall and the other graduates) is below.
Current LT top 20
- D Martin Marincin
- D Jeff Petry
- L Curtis Hamilton
- R Tyler Pitlick
- L Linus Omark
- C Anton Lander
- L Teemu Hartikainen
- D Jeremie Blain
- G Tyler Bunz
- D Colten Teubert
- G Olivier Roy
- C Ryan Martindale
- D Brandon Davidson
- C Milan Kytnar
- D Alex Plante
- L Toni Rajala
- L Drew Czerwonka
- C Chris Vandevelde
- R Kristians Pelss
- D Johan Motin
Um, are you suggesting that Steve Smith is beloved in Edmonton? Because let me tell you, as a guy who's suffered some presumptions of guilty by extremely tenuous association, he isn't.
ReplyDeleteI don't think "Steve Smith" means what you think it means.
ReplyDeleteHow did you know about my identity crisis?
ReplyDeleteAs well, I'm puzzled by this notion that the Kings pick will wind up in the 18 to 25 range. As I understand it, if the Kings win the Cup the pick will be 30th, and if they lose in the finals it will be 29th. Otherwise, the position will depend on their regular season performance. For it to be in the 18 to 25 range, the Kings would have to finish the regular season between sixth and thirteenth in the league. They're currently tied for twelfth. They obviously improved at the deadline, but enough for them to move up as high as sixth? I don't see it.
Wait, sorry, a pick in the 18 to 15 range actually equates to finishing between fourth and thirteenth (depending on whether the Cup finalists finished above or below them in the regular season).
ReplyDeleteThese overaged major juniors masquerading as an NHL team will eventually grow up. In 3-4 years from now, maybe less.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Kevin Lowe - probably the most despised executive in the NHL remains, to drive away any good UFA players.
Unfortunately, Kevin Lowe - probably the most despised executive in the NHL...
ReplyDeleteI think it would be hard to identify a demographic, including members of the Oilogosphere, who preferred Brian Burke to Kevin Lowe. Leafs fans, maybe, or Ducks fans?
Imploi: To imply something about Boston.
With 4 D-men listed in your top 10,do you think this now gives them enough prospects on D to be able to bypass Larsson with the first pick?
ReplyDeleteoh wow did you see Gillies destroy Clutterbuck? It was something the league doesn't want to see but I bet a lot of Oilfans wish something like that would happen when a guy like Regehr (or Clutterbuck for that matter) kill Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteJust throwing this out there, and I know it will never happen and most people will disagree with me, but I think the Oilers would do better with DD + JDD than with DD + Rehabibulin.
ReplyDeletehockeyguy: I hope so. Larsson is a terrific talent but imo the better bet is either Couturier or Landeskog.
ReplyDeleteSteve Smith: Where should the range be for the pick? The first playoff team to pick would select 15th, right?
Steve Smith - I did say probably, not certainly.
ReplyDeleteWhat I am certain of is Brian Burke never held a player to ransom ala Comrie to the Ducks.
Actually I doubt if Burke is all that hated by the players anyway - Ron Wilson is the alpha dipshit in Leafland.
Burke imo doesn't particularly bother me, since I prefer to dislike people as I find them personally - not dislike them just because Kevin Lowe happens to have started a feud with them.
Just throwing this out there, and I know it will never happen and most people will disagree with me, but I think the Oilers would do better with DD + JDD than with DD + Rehabibulin.
ReplyDeleteAre you saying that on the basis that JDD is a better goalie than Khabibulin, or that Dubnyk would get more starts with JDD than Khabibulin.
I think Khabibulin's probably slightly better than JDD, but agree with you on the second point. I don't there's much doubt that the two best goalies currently in the system are Dubnyk and Gerber, though. And I'm far from sold on Dubnyk.
You're marking Teubert down because of an injury which is fair enough.
ReplyDeleteWay too early to assess the impact of that though.
The Oilers needed some tough as nails and a little crazy in the worst way.
They got it.
Let it play out.
I'm always 'wight"
Steve Smith: Where should the range be for the pick? The first playoff team to pick would select 15th, right?
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily - this year the eighth place team in the east will almost certainly pick earlier than that (assuming I understand the draft rules correctly). But that actually mitigates in favour of a later pick for LA, if anything. Somewhere between 17th and 20th seems more likely to me, but I guess we're probably just using different thresholds for our bounds.
LT: Enjoying the podcasts of your radio show.
ReplyDeleteIV with John Short nothing short of a wow - particularly his comments about KLowe.
Keep up the great work.
Very interesting top 10 without the grads. Still a lot of talent, but how many of them really ought to make an NHL roster (versus will be forced to because we keep trading our best players away).
Can't wait until you start your series on the upcoming draft.
We're using difference confidence intervals, I mean - I knew there was a term for that less stupid than "thresholds for our bounds".
ReplyDeleteLT:I hope they take Landeskog,but I will go to sleep tonite and dream how Tambo traded up to have 2 picks in the top 5 and got them both.
ReplyDeleteJust saying that if we are of the opinion that DD has graduated (which most of are) then that means we've given him the vote of confidence. I'd expect that at worst we're looking at a Peter Budaj level of performance next year and at best a poor man's Bobrovsky.
ReplyDeleteDubnyk is not flashy but he is a very good technical goalie.
As for JDD, we know what to expect.
From Gerber's comments, he doesn't sound like he's going to be back though he would've been my first choice. With regards to Khabi, I would rather buy him out next year but I think Tambo is smug enough to ride this one out.
From Gerber's comments, he doesn't sound like he's going to be back though he would've been my first choice.
ReplyDeleteI strongly suspect that if we told him he was top two on our depth chart, he'd sign. There's no chance of us telling him that, though.
@hockeyguy10
ReplyDeleteSame here. I've been big on Landeskog for a long time. I even tried to "accidentally on purpose" pick him in last year's Mock Draft but it didn't quite go my way. :-P
However, BPA is an unforgiving concept and right now I can't say that he's necessarily better than Couturier. I'm just a BIG fan of his style of hockey, and in a rat race against Larsson and Cout, I would pick Landeskog based on that lone.
@LT: If they think Larsson is BPA I think they should take him.
ReplyDeleteMy personal opinion is that he is not, but that's just my opinion. I don't think position should ever be a way to determine drafting and I felt the same way last year with regards to Hall vs Seguin. Who cares if he's a center? unless it's a generational talent of a forward vs a generational talent of a D (Forsberg vs Pronger, I take Pronger).
Plus, I think you always trade better (or more advantageously) from a position of strength than a position of weakness (or averageness?).
raventalon40:His style of play is also something I like.Wasvreally looking forward to seeing him play at the WJHC.But unfortunately...
ReplyDeletemy word verification was pallygoc,does that make me Marcel Goc's pal?
Dan Barnes tweet....
ReplyDeleteI'm told Oilers' mgt. sees Colten Teubert as no better than No. 5 D in the NHL but love his on-ice attitude. Oil don't have enough edge now.
Interesting.
Another Barnes tweet...
Top-notch source said S. Tambellini heard from GMs expressing interest in the defensive stylings of J. Strudwick Mon., but no solid offers.
Somewhat belatedly, let me add my voice to the chorus complimenting you on your excellent radio show.
ReplyDeleteI'm a little concerned that John Short identified Jim Vandermeer as a FA signing. Joanne Ireland did the same thing earlier this year in two separate articles. It suggests that they find it plausible that Tanbellini would have signed Vandermeer for $2.3 million.
I kind of hope that we don't win the lottery, or don't finish last, so that someone is off the board when we make our selection.
ReplyDeleteAs of right now though Couturier is my choice.
tranglob
20
ReplyDelete5
5
15
11
10
and now 16
A Plante
Up and down like bride's nightie.
Hopefully Teubert's plots out better.
The URL of the Philadelphia Roman Catholic Education working group is phircedu.
I'm a little concerned that John Short identified Jim Vandermeer as a FA signing. Joanne Ireland did the same thing earlier this year in two separate articles. It suggests that they find it plausible that Tanbellini would have signed Vandermeer for $2.3 million.
ReplyDeleteThat was a terrible signing Keven Lowe and Steve Tambellini should be fired for it.
#27 for a #5 D who is 3 years away from that and a 1st in a shitty draft.
ReplyDeleteWe really are run by morons.
Sigh.
--
Is it RQ whose been saying he hopes Calgary goes on a run to put more pressure on Edmonton management to actually do something intelligent?
I hope Toronto goes on a Cuntreal-type run.
Just listening to the radio show - it's weird hearing your voice. Your voice isn't weird, but its just weird to hear you talking - for years you have just been a webpage entity. Now you are almost real.
ReplyDeleteI remain fake for now. Maybe someday I will be real
Oh, hey, I got mentioned! This show gets better and better.
ReplyDelete... the Oilers even KNOW they were getting shit back.
ReplyDeleteAnd they still like it.
That's actually worse than if they just thought Teubert had legit potential.
Also, its was great to hear John Short. I used to listen to him every day for years before I left the city for a decade or so.
ReplyDeleteJohn's a great guy, he really is. Years ago, I'd spemd an hour or so every weekday with him just talking about crap. Boxing, old Red Wings stories, just all sorts of things.
ReplyDeleteHe could write a book.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI thought the deal w/Vandermeer was that we'd already waived Patty O' Lantern's with the expectation that we were just going to buy him out.
ReplyDeletePhoenix then stepped in and offered one of their garabage contracts and presto, Vandermeer is an Oiler.
Realistically, we could have just done the buy-out and did not have to take Vandermeer back but, Klowe, I mean, 3.0 couldn't resist.
I'm starting to sour on Marincin and Pitlick LT. The big Slovak can't play defense and Pitlick somehow manages to be a minus player in a game where he scored a hat-trick (one PP goal) and the other team only scored three goals.
ReplyDeleteBoth seem to be cheating too much towards the offensive side in junior.
Pelss on the other hand, deserves to be about 5 spots higher. He's really turned it on in the last month, no?
So he's a #5 dman at best?
ReplyDeleteWow, what do people have to do to really piss off fans in Edm?
are the fans afraid to stay away because of previous relocation threats?
if you're a team that trades away a Penner for a guy you don't think is better than a 5th dman, well let's see people defend that one.
You can start....right now!:)
and if you're gonna talk about how you needed a guy who'll punish people, the 49 already does that. and for the next guy he'll do that? you can keep Vandermeer as the 6th guy.
but don't waste an asset like Penner on a fucking 5th dman.
wow, that's just unreal that the Oilers would rank both penner so low and trade him for a guy with such a low ceiling.
the only way this works is if the Oilers package 13 and the Kings 1st rounder and get to a position where they draft someone who comes in right off the goddamn bat to be as good as wayne simmonds or jeff skinner was.
and I don't think Cogs plus a 20th overall pick is gonna get you into that spot.
but you know, Stu's excited because he has bullets!!!
I just don't see the Oilers drafting Landeskog.
ReplyDeleteWe already have plenty of wingers both here and on the way and Gagner could end up moving to wing as well.
As for centers, I still don't think Couturier or Nugent-Hopkins project high enough to pass up a franchise defenseman in Larsson, which is still a need position.
Most of all, the acquisition of Teubert who's a potential 5-6th defenseman shouldn't factor in the decision to draft Larsson or not.
"holy shit, we have a lot of 5th dmen."
ReplyDelete- Kevin Lowe
Dennis - the Oilers won the trade, its pretty hard to refute that.
ReplyDeleteSounds like this guy is the second coming of Bryan Young, who was the second coming of Chris Hajt.
ReplyDeleteSince he's part of a big trade, Teubert will get fast-tracked and exposed like all the other crappy young defencemen the Oilers have tried to turn into pros the last five or 10 years.
To the anti-trade Penner people still complaining:
ReplyDeleteThis is sooo March 1st.
We've now moved on, and look forward to following our new prospects progress, hoping he recovers from his wrist injury, and watching Kings scores hoping they lose(instead of the Flames).
dorito: Marincin is flagging, possibly from the length of the season. Pitlick looks fine if my math is right. Here are their current splits:
ReplyDeleteMarincin
33gp, 10-25-35 +6
26gp, 3-14-17 -10
Pitlick
33gp, 15-21-36 +2
23gp, 12-14-26 +2
Question for the group: can a #5 penalty kill? Would Jason Smith had been a number 5? If not, what made him a top 4 that someone like Peckham won't be able to do.
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance.
LT:
ReplyDeleteGuys in your top 4 absolutely have to be able to PK or PP. Teubert does neither.
Guys in your top 4 absolutely have to be able to take on the other teams best lines. Teubert likely does neither.
Smith was a monster on the PK and could play against anyone without looking over-matched.
Lowetide: a number 5 had better have a clue, since injuries often force them up the seasonal rotation
ReplyDeletePDO: Did he PK in junior? What was his role on Team Canada at wj's?
ReplyDeleteLT: Of course he can.
ReplyDeleteIf he doesn't bring offense he should.
PDO,
ReplyDeleteDo we know that Tuebert has not done any PK?
Just asking.
A Plante
ReplyDeleteUp and down like bride's nightie.
Hopefully Teubert's plots out better.
The first time I read that I thought it was a haiku about your favorite ficus.
DSF,
Are you Darren Pang?
Dennis,
Don't forget trading the toughest and most expensive tyoe of asset (large forward with hands) for the easiest and cheapest asset to get (big dman who hits)
Throw a rose (the 1st) on that steaming pile and call it valentines day.
My posts are "reptions"
I think that was well said PDO. I'll just add that Peckham could follow in Jason Smith's footsteps. Could also be Matt Greene's footsteps which would be fine but not as good as the Smith track. (BTW, Smith did have a pretty weird track)
ReplyDeleteThis was a really awful deal. Actually as a hockey trade this is probably worse than the Smyth deal. Penner's not as accomplished but they were sending out two playoff runs and a value contract for one season. In return the Oilers get a lesser 1st rounder, a 3rd rounder instead of a project, and a questionable prospect with very little upside. Just brutal return.
" Woodguy said...
ReplyDeleteA Plante
Up and down like bride's nightie.
Hopefully Teubert's plots out better.
The first time I read that I thought it was a haiku about your favorite ficus.
DSF,
Are you Darren Pang?"'
Are you Louie DeBrusk?
LT:
ReplyDeleteYes he did PK in junior and yes he played a big role on team Canada.
I'm pretty sure Ethan Moreau got buckets of PP time in junior and surely you remember the Jani Rita goal.
So I'm not really sure how relevant that is when we can see he's now having injury problems and he's yipping in the AHL and on top of all of that he somehow thought he should have been in the show 2 years ago.
Right now, Teubert isn't good enough to PK in the AHL.
That's a whole of learning to do.
Devil's advocate? The phrase:
ReplyDelete"I'm told Oilers management sees Teubert as..."
Is markedly different than:
"I'm told BY Oilers management..."
I don't have any reason to doubt Dan Barnes or his sources, just my desperate attempt at mollification for the day. Carry on.
What a bunch of Pink Nancies.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers needed big, tough, and a little crazy and they got it.
The kid is 20.
He can skate.
He can hit.
He can and will fight.
Jeebus.
PDO: Yeah, I'm not so much suggesting he's doing it now but it is something he's done in the past.
ReplyDeleteManchester has a very deep blueline, I can see how a rookie with some injuries might not be able to establish himself in the PK rotation.
DSF: JFJ on defense you say?
ReplyDeleteDSF:
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers need good hockey players.
They traded away one.
They didn't get one back, nor did they get anything that has a high probability of being a good hockey player back.
The kid is 25.
He can skate.
He can hit.
He can and will fight.
He's nicknamed crazy.
Who is he?!
Because he sure as hell isn't a good hockey player, but he shares a lot of descriptions with Teubert.
Is it this year or next year that the Chciago-style rebuild calls for a crippling UFA contract?
ReplyDeleteI'll guess 6 years and $40,000,000 for Patrick Sharp.
LT,
ReplyDeleteIts very hard to assess a guy like Teubert because he doesn't put up nice boxcars. As well we don't know about QOC etc.
But I don't see how you put Blain ahead of him. I like Blain but I really doubt he has the size, toughness and skating ability that Teubert has.
I seem to remember Jason Smith coming over from TOR as a bottom pairing defenceman. He eventually became a #1.
The numbers mean little. If you have a team in with some big guys who post up in front of the net, you need someone big to deal with them.
Dennis, I am not clear on whether you liked the trade?:-)
Sorry, that comment was surlins.
Are you Louie DeBrusk?
ReplyDeleteThat retort doesn't even make sense.
I am going to careabl you until you can't take it any more. You heard me.
Ducey: Blain'S a PPG defenseman and is size ain't a problem (6''2 200)
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember Jason Smith coming over from TOR as a bottom pairing defenceman. He eventually became a #1.
ReplyDeleteI'd be quite happy to see Teubert turn into Jason Smith, but I don't think Jason Smith was ever the #1 defenseman on the Oilers, let alone on a good team. But I can't be positive, since the ropites are getting to my brain.
Everyone after Lander on that list is a longshot except maybe Olivier Roy. Also: Chorney manages to be removed from the list yet still there. If he can be two places at once we really have something.
ReplyDeleteHotraini, I take that back: it looks like Smith was the #1 defenseman in 2006-2007 (either him or Staios). What a terrible team that was. A terrible, terrible, much better than our current team, team.
ReplyDeleteChorney manages to be removed from the list yet still there. If he can be two places at once we really have something.
ReplyDeleteProblem is that they're both out of position.
(My captcha is "limit" - not much I can do with that, except maybe take it there.)
nor did they get anything that has a high probability of being a good hockey player back.
ReplyDeleteStu Macgregor is not good with a scalpel. Russel M. Nelson is.
Russel Nelson is not good with hockey drafts. Stu is. s
Stu might be nelson surgery good. We will see.
For a math/advanced stats blog, a lot of people are shitting on Teubert based on his simple G-A-PTS and +/- and because of his place on the depth chart on a deep AHL team.
ReplyDeleteLet's shit on him AFTER we have some advanced stats to go on.
That was a terrible signing Keven Lowe and Steve Tambellini should be fired for it.
ReplyDeleteI blame Katz.
Are you Louie DeBrusk?
ReplyDeleteFamiliarity with alcohol and taxis?
I have a pain in my sidectox.
LT: 5 and even 6 D-men should be able to kill penalties,as long as they are physical(unlike Foster)Besides who would you rather be blocking shots,Matt Greene or Drew Doughtey.
ReplyDeleteLT: 5 and even 6 D-men should be able to kill penalties,as long as they are physical
ReplyDeleteWhy do they have to be physical? Isn't the penalty kill all about blocking lanes and killing the cycle? Souray's a good penalty killer, but I don't remember seeing him lay many bone-crushing hits while a man down, even though he was capable of them.
Bookie: not one of the three assets have logged a cap in the NHL yet we won the trade already?
ReplyDeletethat's fucking awesome!!:)
jesus, we must have cleaned up in the smyth deal!!
anyone who still believes in the acumen of the Oilers brass is a real inger.
They didn't get one back, nor did they get anything that has a high probability of being a good hockey player back.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Gregor 60.5% of first rounders and 15.8% of third rounders play 300+ games in the NHL. The Oilers got a 1st and a 3rd. You cannot ignore the value of those picks. In addition to this they got a D-man prospect who might contribute in some way.
They gave away 101 games of Penner and the right to talk to Penner about a contract before other teams get to.
The Oilers did fine in the trade.
Reading the comments on Teubert since the trade, is it any wonder no players want to go to Edmonton? Colton may or may not turn out to be a good defenseman but as of now he's not Brayden Schenn, a 5th overall pick and a guaranteed playoff spot rolled into one, so let the hating commence.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the last trade the fanbase universally liked? Carson, McLelland and a 5th for Graves, Klima, Murphy and Sharples? Ah, they don't make trade like that anymore.
Seeing the discord among the long-time fraternity of the Oilogosphere causes me remisati.
ReplyDeletePlus I thought I read DSF defending the Oilers management which caused a flare-up of buggeert.
bookie, good luck with the Dennis-baiting, but if you get caught by the authorities, it is a fine and possible jail time.
What was the last trade the fanbase universally liked? Carson, McLelland and a 5th for Graves, Klima, Murphy and Sharples? Ah, they don't make trade like that anymore.
ReplyDeleteI don't remember a lot of naysayers on the Brewer + spare change for Pronger deal. Everything during the ensuing season was properly beloved too, I think, even if the price for Roloson seemed steep.
Bookie:
ReplyDeleteAnd what are the odds of late firsts and late thirds?
Steve:to win battles and clear the puck
ReplyDeleteif a d-man is to feobil he will get shed around
shoved
ReplyDeleteJust out of curiosity I looked up all the defenseman drafted by the Kings since Lombardi and Mark Yannetti (their director of amateur scouting) came aboard in '06:
ReplyDelete2006:
Joey Ryan (48th OV)
Niclas Andersen (114 OV)
Martin Nolet (144)
2007:
Hickey (4th OV)
Alec Martinez (95th OV)
Josh Kidd (184th OV)
2008:
Doughty (2nd OV)
Teubert (13th OV)
Voynov (32nd OV)
Andrew Campbell (74th OV)
2009:
Nicolas Deslauriers (84th OV)
David Kolomatis (126th OV)
2010:
Forbort (14th OV)
Kevin Gravel (148th OV)
Other than the slam-dunk in Doughty, there's not a lot of "finds" there. Martinez is their 6/7 on a blueline assembled entirely via trade and free agency, save for DD.
I'm not sure if it means anything, but it's interesting to look at. Some scouting departments are better than others at identifying certain types of players. I guess the underlying question is, did they give up on someone they think is a failed prospect or won't develop? Or did they really give to get?
Pitlik broke his ankle tonight, out for a month. Could re-join team in 2nd round of playoffs.
ReplyDeleteAs per Copper n Blue
All excellent prospects will be impact NHLers, score 25 goals, and not get hurt.
tededer - Peckman's other nickname
Voynov looks like a blue chipper and Forbort is a guy the Oilers liked a lot (hat tip to speeds for seeing that in Oil Change 1.0).
ReplyDeleteCampbell is having a nice AHL season and that Kolomatis guy is having a poor one.
I keep seeing people hoping he becomes jason Smith and the fact that Smith struggled befor making here as reason to believe that Teubert can too. But the Oilers traded a 2nd rd pick for Smith, that seems to be a much more reasonable price to pay for a reclamation project then your top goal scorer the last 3 years.
ReplyDeleteThis mgmt team is earning every one of these lottery seasons.
The Pitlick thing is a gutshot and hopefully the fact that it happens so late in the season doesn't affect his development. I have been pulling for him to outperform a 31st pick.
ReplyDeleteBut I might just be lizin.
Bruce and his blue sweater interview Alex Plante
ReplyDeleteGood job Bruce.
Hope Alex turns the corner like he says he is.
Watching the Oilers live gives me rexones
two different polls today had Penner ranked 185th(TSN)and at 187th for players having played min. 44 games.All rankings being stat based.Maybe puts the trade a little more in perspective.
ReplyDeletetwo different polls today had Penner ranked 185th(TSN)and at 187th for players having played min. 44 games.All rankings being stat based.Maybe puts the trade a little more in perspective.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the methodology? Because that doesn't pass the smell test.
I think they may have used Maggie the monkey.
ReplyDeleteall stat based.Cullen goes indepth to explain all.Said he enjoyed stats as much as he enjoyed playing sports as a kid
ReplyDeleteall stat based.
ReplyDeleteYes, you said that. It doesn't answer my question.
Hall @29 for LW Penner @40
ReplyDeletePerhaps it would be best if you just provided a link.
ReplyDeleteSteve:here it is from Cullen
ReplyDeleteThe individual player ratings are generated using a weighted formula that includes the following statistics:
Goals per game, Assists per game, Plus-Minus, Power Play Goals, Shorthanded Goals, Game Winning Goals, Shots on Goal, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways, Takeaways and Faceoffs.
Game Winning Goals
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think we can safely disregard this entirely.
http://tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=294742
ReplyDeletesorry new to this.
yeah why not gwg goals have no value,just ask Glenn Anderson.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't actually explain his methodology at all. So what we do know is that this was done using an undisclosed formula by a guy who thinks that game winning goals have some kind of predictive or explanatory value. Doesn't inspire confidence.
I don't think "Steve Smith" means what you think it means.
ReplyDeleteBy the way LT - this was a hilarious comment and I am sure that everyone got a good laugh out of it.
Dennis - it's irrefutable - LT's comment IS funny.
I'm an old guy (36 on Sunday) but reading this site lately, the more I'm convinced that the majority of "regulars" are just crabby old men.
ReplyDeleteLet the trade play out before you ream it. Not one of us have any idea how the assets they got back will play out.
Maybe they are moved for other assets? The crabbiness the last two days is overwhelming.
Yes it sets back the timeline (which Lowe already said was 4-6 years, so not really?), and it sucks, but it's not out of character.
Relax, the timeline's set, we all know it, so lay off with the fucking bitching for awhile. Watch the kids develop, maybe you'll get some joy out of it.
For the record, I LOVE This Site (first thing I check every morning)
Last thing (I'm sure none of you read this anyway) NO to Couterier. He's bigger than everyone he plays against, he should put up good stats.
One of the Swedes please
Ducey: Blain'S a PPG defenseman and is size ain't a problem (6''2 200)
ReplyDeleteBlain's 189 lbs.
See this is what drives me nuts. We have Blain, a guy drafted in the 4th round. Because he is putting up some boxcars, suddenly all some bloggers say he is an equal player to Tuebert.
Tuebert has been on multiple national teams and was drafted in the 1st round.
Either all the scouts for all the teams are out to lunch, or perhaps its not a matter of boxcars.
Maybe, just maybe, we have to consider that the scouts know more than we do.
Using the word verification word in the post is distracting and dumb.
ReplyDeleteWe also know that it takes no account of the conditions in which the players play (qualteam, qualcomp, zone start, etc.) or of any measures that don't show up on the scoresheet (zoneshift, Corsi, etc.). It does use hits, which are recorded unevenly and which do not appear to have much predictive/explanatory value with respect to a team's performance, and giveaways/takeaways, which are credited more or less at random. It uses "faceoffs", but I have no idea what Cullen means by that.
ReplyDeleteSo yes, it's all stat-based. A ranking of players based on the level of the Dow Jones on the date of their births would also be all stat-based.
Player A has 25 goals with 1 GWG
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 GWG.Who would you rather have on your team?
I'm an old guy (36 on Sunday) but reading this site lately, the more I'm convinced that the majority of "regulars" are just crabby old men.
ReplyDeleteHey you kid, get off my ranse!
I've seen the formula before, Steve. They set this monkey (actual a macaque) up on a stool and they get it to spin this giant wheel and then they give it a delicious treat. It's foolproof!
ReplyDeleteyeah why not gwg goals have no value,just ask Glenn Anderson.
ReplyDeleteWell, he's be biased on the question, since he gets so many of them. Steve MacIntyre probably thinks that ritual heavyweight mutual-pummellings are useful. That doesn't mean anything.
This has been discussed largely to death, but I'm avoiding work, so I'll ask you: what gives that statistic its value, as it pertains to evaluating a player and as distinct from total goals scored?
hockeyguy10: You played it well right up until Steve asked for the link and you gave it to him.
ReplyDeletePost a link, but make it a Rick Astley video or a Mr. Magoo episode.
Player A has 25 goals with 1 GWG
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 GWG.Who would you rather have on your team?
Is that the only information I have about them? Then I flip a coin.
You know, I think we all need to relax a little. So, I thought it was a good time to discuss Souray.
ReplyDeleteI was reading the link LT provided earlier (Elliotte Friedman) and he mentions Souray 'playing for the money' in Hershy (briefly). I bet the Oilers buy him out this season. It saves money, it costs cap room, but the Oilers have the cap room, but I think buying him out and giving him the chance to play elsewhere will be good for their reputaion (as opposed to making him sit for a second year down there).
I think most players can accept that the Oilers were trying to get something for him this year, but next year there is no reason to keep him around.
Player A has 25 goals with 1 hot single sister.
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 hot single sisters.
Who would you rather have on your team?
Player A has 25 goals with 1 GWG
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 GWG.Who would you rather have on your team?
Whichever one I could trade for a d-prospect, a 1st round draft pick and a conditional 3rd round draft pick.
Did I win?
Ribs - well, no matter how many he has, you really want to confine yourself to one. Otherwise it gets complicated. So I think I might flip a coin there, too, if I'm sufficiently confident in my seductive prowess.
ReplyDelete(Which I am, obviously. Though, in fairness, I don't think "seductive prowess" means what I think it means.)
Player A has 25 goals with 1 hot single sister.
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 hot single sisters.
Who would you rather have on your team?
Player A - who the hell would want 6 sister in laws
my word was : porkever
i meant 5 sister in laws...
ReplyDeleteI think you meant five sisters-in-law.
ReplyDeleteMy god, I have an appealing personality.
I guess it's a tougher question than I had originally thought it was. With the 6 sisters you have a better chance at (at least) one of them but you guys may be right about the in-laws. We should probably assess the situation for a couple of seasons and work this thing out. Who wants pancakes?
ReplyDeletePlayer A has 25 goals with 1 hot single sister.
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 hot single sisters.
Who would you rather have on your team?
Player A - who the hell would want 6 sister in laws
Bookie, so your plan is to marry the player??
Bookie, so your plan is to marry the player??
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe each of the sisters also has six hot single sisters.
Actually A & B I referred to were NHL vets,so they both have a hot wife. :-)
ReplyDeleteOh, I see why Cullen's got Penner ranked so low: he needed to make room in front of him for guys like Kurtis Foster.
ReplyDelete(Another thing that hockeyguy10 neglected to point out, assuming that this is the ranking he was talking about, was that this is a ranking of a player's usefulness in a fantasy league, not in the real league.)
It's all part of Tambo's master plan - Trade Penner for assets and salary. Trade for Stastny using said assets plus. Oilers make playoffs. Acknowledged as a genius by all. Modestly kicks floor, "All part of the plan". Bloggers remain silent. Could happen.
ReplyDeleteNo, sorry, this seems to be the list that hockeyguy was talking about. My bad.
ReplyDelete...and that list is only marginally less ridiculous. I think we all love Curtis Glencross around here, but you'd be hard pressed to find somebody credibly arguing that he's better than Dustin Penner (right on par with Jordan Eberle, who is also better than Penner). Other guys ranked ahead of Penner include such noted superstars as Bryan Bickell and Frans Nielsen. Also, Ryan Kesler is apparently the fifth best player in the league, just ahead of Alex Ovechkin.
ReplyDeleteIt's okay, though - it's stat-based.
Actually, Nielsen and Beckell look to be pretty good players - they both have terrific zoneshift, and Beckell's playing the toughs with little help (though he has an atrocious Corsi). Beckell's even outscoring Penner at even strength, though he's riding a very high PDO. I'd take Penner over either if the sole criterion was present performance, but those guys aren't half bad.
ReplyDeleteLT:I will remember your advice for next time.:-)
ReplyDeleteSteve:They are a # of players who always seem to score more then "their share" of GWG's.Anderson was one,Claude lemieux in the playoffs,Joe Sakic.I would rather have a couple of these guys on my team then a couple of guys that only seem to score the 5th goal in a 5-1 win.(too late tonite to find some names)Even though the goal totals are comparable.
They are a # of players who always seem to score more then "their share" of GWG's.Anderson was one,Claude lemieux in the playoffs,Joe Sakic.
ReplyDeleteWell, as long as it seems like it, I guess that's okay.
On Lemieux specifically, see here.
here is a quick example Milan Lucic or David Backes if you had your choice?Backes has 71 goals over the last 3 seasons.Lucic only 53 due inpart to injury.Backes 4 game winners,about 5-6% of his goals.Lucic has 11 a little better then 20%.I trade you my 3 David Backes for your two Lucic.
ReplyDeleteI trade you my 3 David Backes for your two Lucic.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm sure Lucic's higher percentage of game-winning goals has nothing to do with the fact that he plays for a team that's won 37 of 63 games this year, rather than 28 of 63.
Lucic scores at a superior rate at even-strength (albeit with a very high PDO), so that's an argument in his favour. His relative Corsi is also miles higher (his absolute Corsi is also better, which is to be expected since Boston's much better than St. Louis). On the other hand, Backes plays tougher opposition with worse teammates, and has a better zoneshift. Lucic is probably the superior player, but game-winners, being essentially the product of quality of team and random chance (not necessarily in that order, especially over a small sample size like a single season), don't enter into it.
When Boston's up 2-1, how very wily of Lucic to realize that their opponent's going to score another goal, so he has to put them up 3-1 to get the game-winner. How very wily of him to realize, when scoring early in the first to make it 1-0, that Boston's opponents won't score any more goals. That's clutch. Or so I'm told.
Backes also plays more minutes and has a higher rating, despite the lower PDO.
ReplyDeleteActually, I take that back - Lucic's riding a stupidly high shooting percentage this year, and has shown considerably less sustain than Backes over the course of his career. I'll happily give up two of him for three David Backeses, if we're divorcing this from age/contract status (that is, only considering the player's current ability).
People bitching about the Penner trade shouldn't be as po'd about the return as they should be about it not being Hemsky gone instead. Wonderful talent yes but fat lot of good that does from hangnail sickbay.
ReplyDeleteAnd some are forecasting he won't re-sign in Edmonton? Damn huh.
Hopefully he's a component of a trade for someone who can contribute AND stay healthy for more than 57% of an annual NHL schedule which has been his MO the past two. (all credit to Ales for being healthy for 64% of the current season even though that percentage is about to drop considerably.)
Oh yes please sign him long term Tambo. We need more of Bobby Orr during his Blackhawks stint .
Player A has 25 goals with 1 hot single sister.
ReplyDeletePlayer B has 25 goals with 6 hot single sisters.
Who would you rather have on your team?
Player B, easily. That's SIX assets!
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ReplyDeleteitsaleaf said...
ReplyDeleteI'm an old guy (36 on Sunday) but reading this site lately, the more I'm convinced that the majority of "regulars" are just crabby old men.
---
Maybe it's because we've seen this movie far too often over the last 20 years: quality NHLers out the door, replaced by quantity and promises of a better day.
I had no delusions that the Oilers would be a contender or even a playoff team next season. However, I fully expected an improvement to a more competitive team. Perhaps in race for a spot beyond Christmas for a change. Two years at the very bottom, and five out of the playoffs is long enough. Instead, we're dealt another two years (or more) of cellar dwelling, lottery diving, excused by snake-oil salesmanship referencing a plan and timeline (that never had dates attached to it, of course). Fact is, two more years of this suckage does not make future success guaranteed.
- Contending someday? Might happen, might not.
- Better today (on or off the ice) without Penner? Definitely not.
- Return for Penner helping out within three years? Highly unlikely.
That's without considering that Penner brings a combination of unique attributes to the roster: top line, scoring forward with size. And a player that's rarely kept out of the lineup by injury/illness. Given the games lost to injury the last few years, you'd think they'd try to keep their more durable players. Anyway, Penner leaves a huge void in a lineup already rife with holes.
Compounding the problem, they've given Hemsky ample reason to avoid extending this July. In turn, they'll be "forced" to deal him too (likely painting Hemsky as the villain). Based on the intermission interview vs. the Preds, seems clear TambLowe has no intentions of extending Hemsky anyway.
Hard to believe, but it's going to get even worse before it gets better. And all for no apparent reason than a vaunted "plan" (again, no guarantees...aside from ticket money).
A couple coin-flips (late 1st rounder; Teubert) is not enough to justify throwing away the next two seasons.
So, yeah, I'm frustrated with Oiler management...er, mismanagement.
On the plus side they're making it very easy for me to find something better to do with my time.
LT when Teubert came off of IR Nov 15/2010 he was paired with Hickey up until Jan/2011 were Hickey was paired with Voynov. Also during this time Muzzin was sent back down to the AHL. Teubert was either paired with Campbell,Mullen or Muzzin depending on who was scratched that night. Monarchs coach also was rumored that he rotated his young defense to give each one experience. You would find out that Muzzin (who made the kings at the beginning of the season) and Hickey were healthy scratches at one time or another. Wait a year and see what he is like.
ReplyDeleteLee:
ReplyDeleteI keep forgetting - it's the fan's fault no one wants to play for this franchise.
Thanks for the reminder.
Just two things to finish on this.
ReplyDeleteFor all those that like to cling to rankings of just how devalued 27 was league-wide, then how about the idea that the Oilers are stupid for not realizing just how valuable he Really was?
if I'm with a lady who's only decent looking but she's a wicked lay then I don't need fellows telling me what she Isn't.
I already know what she is and what she can do:)
Finally, for all those blind enough to think this trade was an outright win, please keep your usernames and stick around awhile so a few of us can rub it in if it doesn't work out.
and you can do the same to us because I will love it if the Oilers pick up a Simmonds or Skinner with the Kings first round pick.
but, for now, I have the courage of my convictions because of how right I - along with legions of others - was about the Pronger and Smyth packages and how you should always be wary of trades where one really valuable player is dealt for a bunch of questions marks.
So stick around and keep your usernames and let's see who's right.
I'm two for my last two and it looks like another batting practice fastball was just thrown right down the middle:)
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ReplyDeleteLittle late to the comments here. But Teubert's coach said in a very good interview with Jason Gregor. That Teubert was paired with Muzzin, at least in recent times. Just thought I would throw that out as you mentioned other fellows as his pairing and not Muzzin.
ReplyDeleteIt was interesting in that interview the Monarchs coach near the end was lamenting the loss of Teubert. He was also talking about how he has been getting better and better as the season has gone on.