What's not to like? Well, apparently there's a list. Couturier doesn't use his size as he should, some project him as a 2line C (whatever that is) and I've read in several places that he's disappointed because the progression year to year hasn't been there.
A few things: Couturier WON the Beliveau trophy (leading scorer) in 2009-10, so improving on winning the scoring championship is pretty hard no matter the league. Second, he's missed some games but is still delivering quality offense.
So, in an effort to find out exactly how good he is in one of the few disciplines we can measure with junior kids (total points per game), I thought it might be an idea to go in search of the best offensive player from the CHL eligible for this draft.
First, here are the goals per game totals for each CHL league. QMJHL: 3.36; OHL: 3.64; WHL: 3.40. I added the total goals for and divided by total games played, which (unless I'm smoking the drapes) should give us a solid GF total for each team. Correct? So, the CHL's most offensive league is the OHL. Fair?
QMJHL
- Sean Couturier 55gp, 36-56-92 (1.67)
- Jonathan Huberdeau 63gp, 40-59-99 (1.57)
- Zack Phillips 62gp, 38-54-92 (1.48)
OHL
- Ryan Strome 61gp, 32-69-101 (1.66)
- Shane Prince 59gp, 25-63-88 (1.49)
- Gabriel Landeskog 49gp, 33-29-62 (1.27)
WHL
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 65gp, 24-72-96 (1.48)
- Sven Bartschi 62gp, 32-51-83 (1.34)
- Ty Rattie 62gp, 28-48-76 (1.23)
So, with those numbers posted--and understanding the Q is not the most offensive league in the land--what on earth do we do with that Couturier number? I think we take it for what it is--an accurate reflection of his offensive ability. Math doesn't lie, but it is up to us to suss it what math is saying. In this case it seems to be offering us a clue about the 2011 entry draft. We should also be talking about Ryan Strome more. A lot more. And Sean Couturier might just be that big center Edmonton has been needing since Christ was a kid.
--
Nation Radio hits Team 1260 at noon today. Scheduled to appear:
- EJ McGuire from Central Scouting
- David Staples from the Edmonton Journal
- Jonathan Willis from Oilers Nation, etc
- Jeff Krushell from Krush Health
- Kirk Luedeke from NE Hockey Journal and Bruins Draft Watch
- Jim Byer, play by play voice of the OKC Barons
Terrific info LT. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that Strome hasn't been in the conversation as early or often as the other suspects...errr...prospects.
Couturier has been at the top of this class for awhile. He could also still be growing at this age.
I'm surprised that Martindale is out of the conversation, less than a year after they took a flyer on him. Brownlee caught MBS raving about last years draft, and he doesn't mention the guy getting the most points?
ReplyDeleteHe's also happens to be a big center, and if he's only doing so well just because he happens to have two very good wingers...
Would he not be a perfect fit for the Oilers? We have two dynamic wingers that are starving for a big center.
Does he not recycle? What is it? KP would have been pimping this guy in the media like he just drafted the next Joe Thornton.
Well he's playing with two extremely gifted wingers and we're not really certain what else he does.
ReplyDeleteHey LT - is the show streamed on the 1260 website? Your first show, on HDIC, wasn't.
ReplyDeleteAll talk about his lack of improvement from last season is comic. First of all, he is scoring at a much better rate than last season. Furthermore, wasnt this supposed to be the knock on Tavares and then Hall too?
ReplyDeleteAaah good day..Kirk Luedeke would be on the pipeline show as well. Well here are the questions I had sent to piepline show guy:
1> Why is Ryan Strome ranked lower than the big 4? Do you think he might be able to crack the top 3?
2> Doug Hamilton was chosen as a terrific skater in the ohl coaches poll for eastern conference. How high do you see him go in the draft? How does he compare to Alex Pietrangelo?
3> Whats the lowdown on Zach Phillips? Is he a guy who might be available in the second round?
@ peter
ReplyDeleteyes it is streamed online...
Quick note from your Oilers Nation post....Omark doesn't have wheels. It's what will keep him a 40 to 50 point player. I like him though.
ReplyDeleteFurther some questions for Kirk
ReplyDeleteWhat gone wrong with Brandon Saad? He was very hyped coming into the season. However, he has struggled to be a point per game player. Is a gritty winger or someone from the Penner tree? And between him and Joel Armia, who do you like more and why?
@ Kyle
ReplyDeletewhaaaaat? Omark is a very good skater. He may not be more than a 5o point guy, but how many 20-30 players are there in the Oilers right now?
Haha LT
ReplyDeleteI love your show. But you know that..with all the comments and the e-mails!! lol
I really like Ryan Strome. I would not be opposed to us moving down a bit in the draft to draft him.
ReplyDeleteSay Sens end at 3 and want to move up, we get both thier 1st round picks for that...it will be golden
SumOil: Who is Ottawa's second 1st round pick from?
ReplyDeleteSumOil: Who is Ottawa's second 1st round pick from?
ReplyDeleteFrom Nashville, for the Carrie Underwood trade
LT I've heard different about Sean Couturier. It's not his physical play that is question but it's speed that needs improvement. He's has great defensive and face-off skills which the Oilers don't have a center with ether. As to RNH, two thirds of his points have been had on the power play and is playing on a more skilled team, as is Strome. Also Couturier is a +51, were RNH is +24 and Strome is a +27, big difference considering the teams they play on. I find it had to believe for someone to be +51 and not play a physical game. Like I've said before Couturier is the complete package, to bad he's not a right handed shot.
ReplyDeleteI guess the questions from the scouting staff is what player would fit the program they are creating in Edmonton. Yes, a big Centre is needed who wins faceoffs and can play both ends, and can create offense. But will this player be playing with Taylor Hall? Which centre fits better with a leftwinger like Hall? I think it will go down to, Couturier and Strome. I have been a fan of Strome for a while now. He is a right handed centre can create offense can bring people out of their seats, I think he will be this years Seguin.
ReplyDeleteQuestion is again which one will fit in with "the plan"? Strome is the same size as Seguin and last year we all wanted a big centre, and some of us wanted Seguin. Can we pass on a player like Strome/Seguin again? I think a Strome-Hall combination would be electric.
Speed is a big problem with Couturier. The lack thereof is what makes a junior star look very ordinary at the pro level. I suspect Couturier is going to go later in this draft than we think...still lottery land, but not top dog. I think MBS has his eye on another prize, and I'm not sure it will be Larsson either. To MBS, Larsson and Couturier "are what they are". Compare that to the gushing about Hall and Seguin last year.
ReplyDeleteLT it's amazing to see the quality you put into this blog brought over to your radio show as well.
ReplyDeleteThanks again for still finding ways to make this team interesting from some angle other than present on-ice value.
I would like to see Strome play. Couturier was not impressive in the least. I would prefer a rightie anyway for our star LWer.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think the Oil take BPA, which is looking more and more like Larsson.
Was it mono that Couturier had at the beginning of the season? Did that impact his play/season at all? At the beginning of the year a TSN feature was talking about Couturier being like a Jordan Staal type two way center conscientious of his own end - has that changed because of his skating and/or lack of intensity? With all the talk of the Oilers looking to instill a level of compete in the organization it will be interesting who they think has the most among the top 4 or 5 prospects.
ReplyDeleteDoes Strome have an all around game physical/defensive game too or is he just a better skater and more dynamic offensive player?
Perhaps the Oilers could take a flyer on a more "electric" player in Strome or RNH with Pitlick and Lander in the Pipeline... but I like the stability that a Couturier or Larson would bring to the club down the road.
L.T,
ReplyDeleteFor some reason I can't post comments at ON on my crackberry.
In your post there you compared 14 to Steve Shutt.
That is a damn near perfect comp.
I only caught the tail end of Shutt's career, but from what I remember Shutt wasn't too fast or too big or had any one dominate physical skill.
He was just always in the right place with and without the puck and had a deadly accurate shot with a very quick release.
Nice one.
Last night's game against Ottawa. A gushing review is down the page.
ReplyDeletehttp://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=877278&page=3
Strome highlights
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=889242
If the Oilers draft a center than it's between RNH and Strome due to the skating. Strome has a better scorer. Because of arbitrary age cutoffs Strome is a year behind Coutourier so it's comparing a 17 year old to a an 18 year old. Oh and Martindale was rated by coaches as the #3 defensive center. To me it's between Strome and Larsson.
Ashley,
ReplyDeleteCouturier's speed is decent straight line. He has a very long stride and can really eat up ice once the throttle is open. It's his transitions and first 3 steps that are of concern.
Not seeing him over the years or even once out of his equipment, I can't tell if this is a growth issue or a skill issue or development issue or what.
And then there's the issue LT mentioned, which is likely a bigger problem: the kid doesn't refuse to battle but he also doesn't battle hard or use his size effectively. He's bigger than Schenn but you would never know it.
Mono may have had an effect on his strength level.
I noticed that the majority of highlights on the strome video are of him scoring on the rush.. some beauts.. just wondering if this should raise concern over or if its just a matter that these are the 'prettiest' goals and therefore make the cut for the video?!..
ReplyDeleteWith that being said, i understand why people are using electric and strome in the same sentence..
Just to clarify, wondering if he is a dustin brown type when it comes to producing offence..
ReplyDeleteI think Eberle will be a better player than Steve Shutt. He is just so very smart and has truly gifted hands.
ReplyDeleteQ for Kirk Leudeke: if you had the # 1 choice and had absolute craters at both #1 D and a 1C ..... who would he take and why
To me scoring chances are about isolating two on one, either by skating or passing. Strome impressed by lateral movement and change of speeds plus the one timer. As to powerhouse team he's got one top notch defenseman and an undrafted nineteen year old, hardly a stacked team as in Hall's last year.
ReplyDeleteI think Eberle will be a better player than Steve Shutt.
ReplyDeleteTOJ: Damn I hope you're right. Considering that, well, Shutt is in the Hockey Hall of Fame.
If that pans out, they will need a statue of the Magnificent Bastard next to the one of that Gretzky fellow.
Hey LT,
ReplyDeleteIf you could ask EJ to rank the top 5 (with Strome) in terms of drive/compete.
Can someone fill me in on why Strome hasn't been considered among the top four thus far? Is it simply that he is -- like Seguin last year -- someone that has come on this season, and doesn't have the same history as Larsson/Couturier?
ReplyDeleteThat birth date really makes him an intriguing pick.
Landeskog 0.67 goals per game
ReplyDeleteStrome 0.52 goals per game
Stamkos 1.72 ppg draft year
Gagner 2.2 ppg draft year
Stamkos 0.95 goals per game
Gagner 0.66 goals per game
Traktor, I think effective trolling is more specific/explicit. See, for instance, DSF.
ReplyDelete@tractor
ReplyDeleteThe point is?
sumoil:
ReplyDeleteBeware of fluff assists
Strome is not in the conversation
Frack - the team 1260 stream isn't working
ReplyDeleteThe reason for my Stome backing is the thought of Hall, Strome and MP motoring up the ice is almost orgasmic. Screw the standings. Payback to the suffering fans. Sell the new arena. Give 'er
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteI have another question. What is the advantage of drafting guys like McIlrath and Oleksiak in the 1st round?the guys are projected to be bottom 4 defenseman- more realistically bottom pairing. If a guy like Oleksiak projects to be Hal Gill, is it worth spending a 1st rounder on him?
Hmmm... the stream didn't work with Firefox, but it does with Explorer.
ReplyDeleteWG
ReplyDeleteNo probs posting at ON with HTC Android.
;op
by the by,
ReplyDeleteFirst time listener to nationradio.. holy smokes is it quality.. guess i shouldnt be surprised but way to go LT..
@ Corbin
ReplyDeletealso the guest list is awesome.
JW, David Staples...Kirk Luedeke!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLT, with the penner deal setting back the timetable on the re-build do you think that it would make sense to Move Ryan Whitney at the draft?
ReplyDeleteDo you think he could get us another pick in the top 10 perhaps Jersey or Atlanta?
No way they move Whitney.
ReplyDeletea) He's their best defenseman(when healthy)
b) His value is low right now (because he's NOT healthy)
No one wants Whitney unless it is for peanuts. Too much risk. Anaheim was shopping him with little success before they finally got Lowe/Tambellini to bite.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, Lubo is having a helluva year. On pace for 70 (which means he might have got 35 with us this year). Not bad for a fragile, over-the-hill defender. ;)
Good for him. He (and especially his wife) sure didn't like it here though as it turns out. Tambellini and Lowe's hands were tied.
On that note, how are we doing on that hook-Hall-up-with-an-Edmonton-girl project so far? I'm thinking it might even work better if it's a Sask girl. Sask people love Edmonton.
They really talked up Strome on Nationradio. He's moving up fast.
ReplyDeleteMy questions are:
a) How is he on faceoffs?
b) How is he in the corners?
c) Does he have the frame to add 20 lbs?
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteNo one is talking about anyone in this draft in the same breath as Stamkos or even Hall for that matter.
I know some people were terribly offended by this when I made the comparison in another thread but what I've seen of Couturier reminds me somewhat of Rob Shremp. Couturier's stats at the same age are better. But both had no physical game and questionable skating. I heard the fellow from Bruins draft watch raise the skating concern so its not just me whom has looked at that and been leery.
ReplyDeleteI'm leery of how well players who can't skate will translate their game to the NHL level. You just need at least an average level of skating to make it at the NHL level.
Larson or Strome look to be the direction to go in.
@ashley
ReplyDeletelubo didn't like edmonton? do you have more on that?
@Jfry,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ocregister.com/sports/visnovsky-288986-ducks-years.html
http://articles.ocregister.com/2010-03-20/sports/24649296_1_jonas-hiller-ducks-ryan-whitney
There are others if you google Visnovsky and look under "news". Interesting to see he is in the Norris conversation. It's tough being an Oilers fan. We don't even have the excuse of "small market" any more when we are forced to trade our Norris trophy candidates.
also, all these concerns with couturier's physical play because we got to watch one game shown in the west???? talk about small sample sizes. his one big strength in scouting reports has always been "puck protection with his big frame"
ReplyDeletehe sounds like a more dyamic dustin penner who can play center, to me. he also has better lateral movement than penner...i see a somewhat slower spezza out of the kid. we can decided not to take the kid, which is fine by me, but consistently since he was 17, his scouting reports have always talked about how he uses his body to protect the puck. seems like people want to call him "soft" cause he plays a possession game, which is weird to me.
Re: Lubo articles
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers were rebuilding, and the defenseman said part of his struggles resulted from not getting along with Coach Pat Quinn.
Quinn not have time for finesse Euro players? WHY I NEVER.
That was a hell of a draft last year. Davidson, especially for a late developing kid has had a very nice season, 52 points on a very bad team, Blain is basically a point a game on another bad team. So you have 77, 58, Davidson and Blain who are carbon copies. 6'2, 6'3 200 smart efficient D men. Then there are Teubert and Marincin. Finally there is some quality here, in a long, long time.
ReplyDeleteChris the knock against Shremp was not just his skating. Shremp couldn't skate, win a face-off, and play any type of defense. He also had a attitude problem, which got him benched during the play-offs in the juniors. Couturier makes up what he loses in his skating speed with his long reach, he has excellent defensive skill, and has good face-off skills. To compare the two is a joke. Also Shremp had some excellent line mates, let alone playing on top teams (which inflated his points).
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, this is not the '10 draft, at least at the top. Another Hall as a prize for our last place finish is not in the cards. If only Boston would take our first rounder this year for Seguin? I wonder if Tambo offered that last year when we was throwing everything on the roster at Chia to get second overall? Easy to see that it would be a great move now (2011 first OV + good roster player for 2010 second OV), but probably harder in June last year.
ReplyDeleteI watched all the world junior games and my impression was that Couturier didn't really use his size and he was slow. Is it possible I'm seeing him bad because he's big and looks lazy ala Dustin Penner...possibly. On the other hand I've never had that impression of Dustin Penner.
ReplyDeleteBut my general point was players who produce points in junior but don't have NHL footspeed have a greater chance of becoming the next Giroux than the next Spezza.
When OTC was talking about Barbara Anne Scott it was Vis.
ReplyDeleteWhen Vis would look up ice, see no close support and all his outlets covered he'd skate the puck out the ultra smooth way he did. Then he would get bitched at for not following the prescribed break out.
If there were ever a question of round pegs in square holes on the Oilers, it was Vis under OTC.
Seeing how much my wife relied upon her friends and family for support and help after my daughter was born (and I don't go on 5-10 day road trips regularly), I can sympathize with Mrs. Viz not enjoying the frozen tundra with a new baby half a continent away from "home"
I like to look at Player:
ReplyDelete1. Age, for NHLE
A sept aged player in draft NHLE is .75. the next season
NHLE is .75. Hmmm .2/month.
2. TOI Not Readily Available
3. EVPPG and EV to PP ratio. Thanks Sumoil At C&B
A EVPPG of .75ppg or better
EV/PP ratio 2/1
4. Goals win games. You need 1 set-up man per line a 33% goal to 66% assist guy. Give me the 1g/1A guys. I want players to be above the 20G barrier and Above 30G in the top 10.
Prospects we have in the MBS drafts: With Around .75EVPPG and 1/1 Ratio
There NHLE
Hall 40G 40A
Eberle 30G 30A
Martindale 20G 20A (15EVG 15EVA)
Pitlick 14EVG 14EVA
The key is to get the Strong Ev guys who can slot in 2nd or Thrird line and get you goals. In the later rounds. I look at martindales numbers for a 3 RD pick. 6'3"
As for this draft:
Courtier Dec 92 NHLE is .5 + .6 = .56
.56 X 1.66 = .95ppg
.94 EVPPg
Ev ratio 1/1
Ev/PP 3/2
8% of Points SH
23EVG 23EVA
Huberdeau june 93 is .5 + .18 = .68
.68 X 1.57 = 1.05ppg
1.03
EV Ratio 4/6
Ev/PP ratio 7/3
5% of points SH
24Evg 36EvA
Zach Phillips Oct 92 .5 + .2 = .52
.52 X 1.48 = .77ppg
.98 EVPPG
ev Ratio 1/2
Ev/PP ratio 2/1
14EVG 28EVA
Phillip Danault Feb 93 .6 NHLE
1.05 X .6 .63PPG
EVPPG ?????
Ratio 1/2
Ev/PP ???? 3 of 20 G on PP
4SHG
Strome jul 93 .7 NHLE
1.66 x .7 = 1.16
EVPPG .98PPG
Ratio 1/2
EV/PP 6/4
21EV 36EVA
Landeskog Nov 92 NHLE .54
.54 X 1.32 = .71PPG
EVPPG .9
Ratio 1/1
Ev/PP 7/3
20EVG 21EVA
puempel Jan 93 NHLE .58
.58 X 1.25 = .73PPG
EVPPG .6
Ratio 1/1
Ev/PP 1/1
15EVG 15EVA
Noesen Feb 93 NHLE .6
.6 X 1.17 = .7PPG
EVPPG ???
Ratio 9/11
Ev/PP 10 PPG
Khoklachev Sep 93 NHLE .75
.75 X 1.13 = .71PPG
EVPPG .75
Ratio 1/1
Ev/PP 2/1
19EVG 19EVA
Jenner jun 93 NHLE .7
.7 X 1.04 = .73PPG
EVPPG ?????
Ratio 1/2
Ev/PP ?????
Jensen Mar 93 Nhle .62
.62 X .98 = .6PPG
EVppg .62ppg
Ratio 1/1
Ev/PP 7/4
16EVG 16EVA
RNH APR 93 NHLE .64
.64 X 1.48 = .95PPG
EVPPG .39
Ratio 1/3
Ev/PP 1/2
8EVG 24EVA
BARTSCHI Sep 93 NHLE .52
.75 X 1.13 = .59PPG
EVPPG .95
Ratio 1/2
Ev/PP 3/1
12EVG 24EVA
RATTIE FEB 93 NHLE .6
.6 X 1.20 = .72PPG
EVPPG .75
Ratio 2/3
Ev/PP 5/2
17EVG 25EVA
St. Croix Apr 93 NHLE .64
.64 X 1.14 = .73PPG
EVPPG .75
Ratio 2/3
Ev/PP 5/2
14EVG 29EVA
mcneil feb 93 NHLE .6
.6 X 1.11 = .66PPG
EVPPG .75
Ratio 2/3
Ev/PP 2/1
12EVG 24EVA
Strome And Huberdeau are the class of the forwards and At even, And Goal scoring.
RNH Ev numbers are down with fringe first round guys.
Rattie and St. Croix are even machines.
courtier and RNH should not even be considered for our first pick.
Draft day comes down to what the Oilers see as biggest need I think. If it's D the pick is obvious. If it's C or simply BPA it starts to get real interesting. If the Oilers are truly looking at a 3 - 5 year rebuild it would be very nice if ST could translate current assets, players and/or picks, into 2x top 6 picks at this years draft. I advocated Strome in an earlier posting and still believe he's the centre to go for even though Couturier is certainly intriguing. It would be pretty ugly to grab Kirk Muller or Eddie Olczyk and let Mario slide by, not that I am making any sort of comparison to a guy putting up 1.6+ pg vs one who slammed home 4 at the same age. However it goes down I hope it's a C taken with the first pick because I'm reasonably satisfied with the 3 - 4 year projection on the current group of young D.
ReplyDeleteDefencemen are just such boring picks with the benefits most often realized a ways down the road. Usually just above goalies using the YPS (yawns per second)scale on draft day.
I would certainly not be adverse to some tinkering and a day ending up as Larsson + Strome but that probably means Hemsky's on the move along with LA's first ++, and opens up a whole new can of worms with our RW depth. Not much in the cupboard after Eberle right now.
Larsson + Landeskog might fill some pressing needs as well and could make Hemsky tradebait come deadline 2012.
I can stomach watching a young D make their errors as they mature but I really don't want to watch the triad of Horcoff, Gagner, and Cogliano be our AIDS quilt for the next couple of years.
I will don the flak jacket now methinks.
@rickibear
ReplyDeleteNicely done sir!
"courtier and RNH should not even be considered for our first pick."
ReplyDeleteIf this is your conclusion based on your statistical findings then all you've done is hurt the credibility of statistics.
Nice work.
Woodguy: Considering how much is tied up in these players, you would think the geniuses down at Rexall Place would make some effort to keep the players happy - if that means hiring someone nice to look after the player's wives, then so be it.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't mean Jason Arnott.
"Tambellini and Lowe's hands were tied".
This is somewhat like saying Peter Pocklington's hands were tied six months before he sold Gretzky.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteI remember a Peca interview or article where he was upset about the Oilers not doing more to help the new players' families.
I heard he got an acreage out in Ardrosson at the suggestion of someone in the org. and his wife felt trapped out there in the winter and hated it.
Maybe their focus on young single guys is the right approach? Get them hooked up with local girls who don't hate the tundra.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteFor the life of me I see Lowe's prints all over this one. Obviously Vish has certain skills, but human resource management clearly isn't one of them.
We can take a lot of crap in life when money is at stake, but annoy the girl we love and all reasoning flies out the window.
Whether providing help with settling a family into the community, or just providing a sympathetic ear, would go a long way to ...ah what the hell - fire Lowe and 80% of the franchises perceived troubles as a legitimate NHL destination vanish instantly.
I always believed that Penner's resurgence under OTC came at a price elsewhere in the lineup, but I had never seen the tea leaves in print.
ReplyDeleteHere's an intangible for the math crowd: what's the true value of a player who only thrives under a coach that other equally talented teammates loathe?
Strangely, we don't give the org much credit for the OTC transition year. I think that was well judged. It's Penner V2 we're pissed about trading for Teubert. And why was Penner V2 so amazingly receptive to OTC? Just asking. Were the criss-crossing bus tire tread marks responsible for V1's underperformance or for his V2 resurgence?
It's a tricky business assigning credit and blame. Takes a lot more probing than dreamed of in Traktor's six-cell spreadsheet.
Man, that's not bad. I wonder if Microsoft would sue me for a writing a SixCell hockey performance applet.
ReplyDeleteTraktor these comments are not solely based on Stats. Go to you tube and look at strength and footspeed. The video's nice time indicators reletive to markings on the ice.
ReplyDeleteif you believe courtier is the 2ppg player he has produced at lately that gets him to 1.12ppg then he is the choice. He will cover the bet EV, PP, and PK with a 1/1 goal ratio that makes him a 36G 54A guy. (27EVG 27EVA) If you b elieve in Courtier's (in tight) speed then he is #1.
But, with Even production only similiar to Strome. Stromes travel time across the ice is faster.
Hec if we are looking at post WJC numbers: courtier 1.66ppg, Strome 1.82, Huberdeau 1.62ppg
Courtier is the number 3 center and grouped with St.croix and Rattie at evens.
RNH even numbers No.1 ???????????????
I don't know jack, but I'd draft Larsson. D-men are risky bets as prospects in their ELC-RFA years, sure, but they're also higher value if they pan out.
ReplyDeleteNone of the forwards seem to be sure things as stars. There's no Stamkos or Hall. (There are some guys who could be Arnott's, Kane's or Smyth's, but they could also be Brule's, Torres's, or Grattons.)
So there are question marks all around. When that happens, you might as well draft the D-man -who has question marks, too- on the principle that when two lottery tickets have the same odds of winning, you should pick the ticket that can win a bigger jackpot.
And make no mistake, Larsson could be one of the best D-men of the next decade.
Derek Zona shows that Ryan Jones is a just a clever disguise for an unearthly blackhole that sucks scoring chances from anything near him
ReplyDeleteI thought his wowy would be better away from the likes of 16 and 22, but lordy, he's the problem.
JFJ IS A NET POSITIVE SCORING CHANCE MACHINE WHEN NOT WITH JONES.
My world view is taking a big hit right now....
"snexpen" what I said after reading Derek's article because my 2 year old was on my lap and I couldn't swear.
Interesting link WG... but the real curiousity is if Jones is such a blackhole, how the hell is it that Paajarvi and Reddox improve with him? Thinking about the contradiction is hurting my brain.
ReplyDeletehow the hell is it that Paajarvi and Reddox improve with him? Thinking about the contradiction is hurting my brain.
ReplyDeleteIts a small sample so you need to look at the whole to see the picture.
91 has played with him lately and 91 has been better lately, so that might help explain that.
When 85 isn't playing with 28, his teammate level might get worse, not sure.
WG
ReplyDeletei am just biased....and think maybe he would improve.
Also i dont expect oilers to replace him, he may be replacement level.
I dont think they will try and get a penalty killer. I like him on the PK. so I wouldnt mind him back.
Deadman: Sorry my 5 line per player look is not good enough.
ReplyDeleteYou will have to forgive me I am investing my Data review time in capturing the paper: operation, maintenance, purchasing, testing, origional construction and permiting for our plant by taking 15,000 manuals, 45,000 drawings, 500,000 spec pages, 10 historical dbase, 30,000 testing notes, absa notes, Appegga Notes and various individuals maintenance excel pages. That will provide 6 group specific search engines that capture all the plant technical cross reference to reduce information searches for Maintenance.
Our 2M Avantis database fails to do.
I worked in the Manufacturing. Saw the pages of data required to Calculate the material needs of a product based on 6 load needs. Thing is it was repetitive. So I generated 40 Excell sheets that did al the math and preented the 2500 variables that were required. things like plate thickness. frame beams, clutch nees, shaft sizing.
As we create variables and math for the variables we will migrate to that set-up.
While I would love to create a database that establishes, shot data bse on true shot position, type of shot, to establish a goaltenders true Save% and players true Shooting %. This would allow us to create a corsi I could accept. Not a system that says a shot from the point or side boards is the same as a shot from the top of the crease.
I would love to have a desjardins based database that data seperated by zoneshift. I would love to have standard curves based on the post lockout data relative to Comp and zone.
I would love to be able to have standard curves for EV, PK True Save %, to be able to adjust that affect, on Quality shot yeild.
To have a Database that has a true measure of a player relative to the Average to establish aplayers value as total of the Full game EV, PP, PK by zone and strength of competition. The data is partially there.
My belief is we are moving to that.
Desjardins and Corsi are flawed but it is the best we have.
The statistics of CHL is what we have. It to needs advancing.
But to ignore its supported evidence when making decisions is silly.
I just wont be the one advancing it. I will do my rainman routine with pen and paper.
Then go and hang out with my much younger wife and 3 children.
RNH with point 97, 98, 99 and 100 on the season.
ReplyDelete3+1
Coutourier strikes me as a perfect 2nd line center. Perfect match for Ottawa if Spezza is the 1st line center. The Oilers have to make up their minds. Centers to match power forwards ala Hamilton, Pitlick or speed demons ala Hall, Paajarvi. If Martindale outgrows his disinterest, he is a Coutourier. He was rated 3rd as defensive center by coaches in the OHL.
ReplyDeleteSorry Rikki. I'm with Traktor on this one. If RNH is a fringe first rounder according to your numbers then rethink your numbers.
ReplyDeleteRNH has really come on lately. Perhaps there is an elite player in there.
ReplyDeleteI'd warming up to the notion of taking either him or SC 1st overall. Not a big fan of taking Larsson - never have been high on using 1st round picks on defencemen. Never will be.
Oh boy, RNH is smoking the cellar dwellers. 3 goals against Calgary and now three against Swift Currant.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Unless your points come against teams that are current the top three overall in the league then they're worthless.
ReplyDeleteNow I'm going to log of my Whl live account and hope in my ferrari with my 18 year old girlfriend.
I hate blogger. I meant to log off my account and hop into my ferrari.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I'm coming up with a new stat that only counts es goals scored against first place teams.
ReplyDeleteI'll let you know who the best picks are in this draft when I'm done compiling this list.
SMARMY:
ReplyDeleteIs RNH going to score like that on the PP in nhl?
Not F likely.
Every normal player is 2 ev to 1 PP he is 1EV to 2PP. facing NHL PK no way he gets that maybe 1/1 ratio. looking at his EV that is not top 5.
But he his 1.71ppg since the WJC.
Is only .1ppg less than strome and right there with Huberdeau.
Yeah i sure would feel confident passing on the two best EV producing centers for A center who's production is largley from PP.
The Oilers have to make up their minds. Centers to match power forwards ala Hamilton, Pitlick or speed demons ala Hall, Paajarvi. If Martindale outgrows his disinterest, he is a Coutourier. He was rated 3rd as defensive center by coaches in the OHL.
ReplyDeleteI'd warming up to the notion of taking either him or SC 1st overall. Not a big fan of taking Larsson - never have been high on using 1st round picks on defencemen. Never will be.
Sorry gents. Its simple. BPA no matter what position. You are picking a guy that will hopefully be a centerpiece of you team for the next 10 years.
BTW, I have a method to stop "headshots". Just make everyone wear a cage like in midget.
I took plenty of major elbows, shoulders, and sticks growing up and just wound up with a sore jaw for a few days. It would have the added effect of protecting guys from pucks, cut down on all those accidental sticks, and reduce fighting.
It will not likely catch on - as it makes too much sense.
Sorry to have hit a sore spot re RNH. Someone said he was coming on. Just trying to provide a little context. I think there was a four pointer in a 7-0 whitewash as well recently. Nothing said on a blog has input on drafting strategies so the whole thing is academic.
ReplyDeleteNormally I would agree on the BPA draft pick. But the Oilers are in the entertainment busines and they have two objectives. Maintain the fan base and ensure the new arena. Offense is the shiny bauble that stirs passion. The flashes of brilliance by the kids was the sugar that made the medicine go down easier this year. It wasn't the walk on frozen water of the MacT era. So my feeling is that offense should be on the agenda this year and the playoffs should identify the draft picks with higher quality opposition.
ReplyDeleteWell Ricki I never actually said any of that stuff. My only issue was that your stats seem to have convinced you that RNH is a middling first rounder.
ReplyDeleteThat seems rather silly.
I'd love to find out the minutes RNH is getting. Those Red Deer folks were mentioning a few years ago on how much ice-time a guy like Brandon Sutter was getting - which was inflating his stats
ReplyDeleteAnother assist by RNH. 5 point night. 3 on the PP. That said, he is one of the younger players (birth April 12, 1993. SC is December 7, 1992 - effectively a 4 month difference)
I'm sure Stu Magnificent Bastard will make the right decision.
I'm not advocating that the guy go first overall or even that the Oilers should be the one to take him.
ReplyDeleteBut the kid is a player, he'll have success at the NHL, and whoever ends up with him will have a fine selection.
I don't have strong feelings either way on either way between RNH and Strome. I do feel that the Oilers need to draft a Speed center that can keep up to Hall and replace Cogs on that line. I'm impressed by Oiler scouts as witness the haul last year after the first pick. Pitlick, Marincin, Hamilton, Martindale, Davidson and Blain - Woah, that was some draft.
ReplyDeleteYup screams 1st Forward taken
ReplyDelete1990 Nolen 50% points goal
1991 Lindros 45% points goals
1992 Yashin 47% points goals
1993 Daigle 33% points goals
1994 Bonsignore 25% points Goals
1995 Kilger 40% points goals
Langkow 42% points goals
1996 Dumont 46% points Goals
1997 Thorton 36% points goals
1998 Lecavalier 40% points Goals
1999 Stefan 30% points goals
2000 Heatley 50% points goals
2001 Spezza 40% points goals
2002 Nash 46% points Goals
2003 Staal 39% points Goals
2004 Ovechkin 52% points Goals
2005 Ryan 41% points Goals
2006 Staal 39% points goals
Toews 47% points goals
2007 Kane 43% points Goals
2008 Stamkos 51% points Goals
2009 Tavares 50% points Goals
2010 Hall 44% points goals
So since 1990 only three of the 1st forwards picked have less than 35% of there points from Goals.
Daigle
Bonsignore
Stefan
RNH 25% goals
Jesus!!!!!!!
Srome 32% is a worry. Though he is 37% at EV
Huberdeau 40% goals
Courtier 50% goals
I have been educated the goals to assist ratio defines elite players.
you have to have a 40% value or higher.
of the .95 or better forwards:
Stromes 37% EV gets him in the Eric Stall and Joe thorton area.
Courtier combination of PK, PP and Goal to assist ratio makes him nervous about the ev PP ratio for Courtier and his ice travel.
Hubredeau Tops at point production And way ahead at EV.
The .7ppg crowd with Strong EV and 40% goals or greater.
Rattie ,
St. Croix
Landeskog
Koklachev
This clearly changes draft selection
1. Strong NHLE by age
2. ratio ev/PP of 2/1 or better
3. goals 40% of points or better
4. High plus minus.
That G/A ratio makes Courtier look great.
Swarmy thanks for changing my mind on Courtier. the key is to learn as you go along. He was fringe for a first overall for me. BUT 1/1 IS KEY.
But RNH 25% goals thats Bonsignore Territory. RUN! RUN!
BOS8
So this 1/1 and strong even makes Martindale, Pitlick look great.
LW Hamiton 6'3" 200lbs13EVG 26EVA
C Martindale 6'3" 15EV 15EV
RW Pitlick 6' 2"19EV 19EV
Jesus
Couturier. Couturier. Couturier.
ReplyDelete*not an endorsement of the Oilers taking him 1st.
The thing about Nugent-Hopkins is that the Red Deer team he plays for is the best defensive team in all of CHL. Within the WHL, Red Deer leads (obviously) the league with the lowest GA by a pretty significant margin.
ReplyDeleteSo Here's my hunch: when RNH and his buddies plays EV in Red Deer, most of the time I doubt that they are given the free reign to wheel and deal.
And watching him in the best prospects game, I thought he was quite obviously the most skilled forward and probably the best player on the ice.
re: RNH
ReplyDeleteI've heard his team draws A LOT of penalties and that he never leaves the ice on the PP. I've also heard that he puts in a lot of PK time.
It's reasonable to assume, then, that he gets less EV icetime than some of the other contenders for #1. Sure wish there were production/icetime numbers available.
PP Opps / PK Opps
ReplyDeleteRed Deer (RNH):
350 / 333
Drummondville (Couturier):
264 / 262
St John (Huberdeau):
275 / 261
Niagara (Strome):
289 / 320
From this data, it does seem that RNH gets significantly less EV time than the other top F's, esp those from the Q.
@Traktor:
ReplyDeleteThose are merely ratios (aka fractions) of scoring at EVs and at PP.
I'm not sure what the modification factors do, but the EV/PP scoring comparison is valuable data considering you don't want to draft another PP time hogger, along the lines of Rob Schremp.
I know everyone's seen it, but I just can't think of Ryan Strome without thinking about this goal. Can't watch that too many times.
ReplyDeleterickibear,
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I disagree with your conclusions, but in 1994 the first forward drafted was R. Bonk. Just under 50% of his points were goals.
Strome worries me. The guy comes out of nowhere and puts up numbers with zero track record to assume he can keep producing at that level vs. better and better competition.
ReplyDeleteIMO, Couturier is the better pick if you want a center, but if we're tanking to draft high again next year the smart thing to do is pass on this center group without a true #1 and grab Larsson.
The thing is Strome didn't come out of nowhere. Niagara traded for him to do exactly what he is doing.
ReplyDeleteThe best scouts are the coaches at the junior level. They see these kids close up and dirty all year long. The Oilers are tapped into the coaches' network at the junior level in MB
rickibear:
ReplyDeleteRNH
13 goals in first 45 games (0.28)
14 goals in last 21 games (0.66)
RNH's arrows are on viagra.
You talk about ratios but it is about establishing an elite subset. Getting goals and Preventing Goals win you games.
ReplyDeleteHIgh Goal, point Ratios, EV production subset is what you want.
1. NHLE of .95 or better. Secondary set .7 or better
2. 40% or better
3. Strong EV
This year:(Courtier, Hubredeau) [Landeskog, Puempel, Noesen, Khoklachev, Rattie, St.Croix]
When you have the chance to do that, you take it. Because the 3rd pick does not guarantee.
RE Draft: (>95) [<95 >70]
2010: (hall, Skinner) [ Johansen, Nino, Tarasenko, Etem, C. Thomas, Mckegg]
2009:(tavares, Duschene, Kane) [MP, Glennie]
2008:(Stamkos,) [Hodgson, Eberle, Nemicz, Ennis]
2007:(Kane, ) [Perron, Maclean, Legein, Repik]
2006:(Brassard, Toews) [Staal,Kessel, Mueller, Stewart,Giroux]
2005:(Crosby, Ryan) {Brule,Setaguchi, M. Raymond, Lattendrese)
Ah yeah!
When a person discovers there belief is wrong, the rational person changes there opinion. Re: me and Courtier.
ReplyDeleteThe dip shits will continue to piss against the wind.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteRyan - Nolan Ryan threw for more strikeouts (5714) than any other major league baseball pitcher (by a significant margin). Was throwing 100 MPH in the 1970s.
ReplyDeleteNugent - Ted Nugent: Wango Tango, 'nuff said.
Hopkins - Sir Anthony Hopkins made a pasty faced British actor the scariest guy in the movies as Hannibal Lecter. That's great acting.
Basically proof of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins awesomeness. To deny otherwise is to be eternally damned as wrong as wrong can be. Hop on the Hoppy for Hopkins bandwagon while you still can.